From Crisis Management to Chaos Management: AI and the Collapse of Strategic Predictability

02/17/2026 By Robbin Laird For decades, national security establishments have organized around crisis management or the structured response to disruptions within fundamentally stable systems. The Cuban Missile Crisis, though terrifying, operated within understood parameters: known actors, measurable capabilities, calculable escalation ladders. Even the most dangerous moments followed a logic that skilled diplomats and military planners could navigate. The system bent under… Read more »

AI and International Security: Beyond Weapons to the Foundations of Power

02/16/2026 By Robbin Laird In February 2026, a team from OpenAI published what may become a landmark document in the emerging field of AI geopolitics. "AI and International Security: Pathways of Impact and Key Uncertainties" represents something unusual: a major AI laboratory attempting to map how its own technology could reshape the global balance of power. Drawing on interviews with former… Read more »

The Dynamics of Change for Europe in the Evolving Global System

02/13/2026 Recently, Lt General (Retired) Preziosa published two essays in European Affairs in Italian which we are including in translation after this overview of his analysis of Europe’s position in the evolving global system. His argument rests on a fundamental proposition: the Russian-Ukrainian war represents not a regional conflict but a critical node in a systemic transformation of the Euro-Asian order.… Read more »

The Evolution of Airpower: The 2025 Books

02/12/2026 By Robbin Laird In 2025, four significant books emerged that collectively chronicle the transformation of airpower from its industrial-age roots to its current form as a networked, information-centric enterprise. These volumes, Training for The High-End Fight: The Paradigm Shift in Combat Pilot Training, Remembering the B-17 and Its Role in World War II, Italy and the F-35, and the second… Read more »

Testing Middle Power Theory: Brazil and Australia’s China Relationships in the Emerging Geopolitical Order

02/11/2026 By Robbin Laird February 7, 2026, The Wall Street Journal published an interesting article entitled, Squeezed by U.S. and China, the World's Middle Powers are Teaming Up. Upon reading this article, I wanted to take that assessment and compare it to the findings in my forthcoming book with Ken Maxwell on the relationships of Brazil and Australia with China, a… Read more »

Redefining Fighter Pilot Training for the Age of Chaos Management

02/10/2026 By Robbin Laird For generations, military aviation followed a familiar rhythm. Crises escalated in predictable sequences. Training focused on perfecting physical flying skills. Pilots mastered their aircraft through countless hours of stick-and-rudder practice, building muscle memory that would serve them throughout their careers. That era, according to defense experts examining the future of air combat, is definitively over. We have… Read more »