Trump’s Long Game: The Abraham Accords, Iran, and the Global War in Ukraine

03/03/2026 By Robbin Laird Among the many charges levelled at Donald Trump, that he is impulsive, inconsistent, transactional, hostile to alliances, one rarely examined proposition cuts in a different direction: that across both of his terms in office, Trump has pursued a strikingly coherent strategic objective. That objective is the containment and ultimate transformation of Iran, and through Iran, the erosion… Read more »

Competitive Coexistence, the ‘Fight Tonight’ Force and Australia’s Growing Multipolar Predicament

02/28/2026 By: Stephen Kuper Just as the Cold War was characterised by a period of “Competitive Coexistence” between the United States and the Soviet Union, our new multipolar world embodies this in a significantly more complex way, presenting significant challenges for Australia and its “Fight Tonight” force. Human history has been defined and, in many ways, characterised by the inescapable tension of… Read more »

Enabling Arctic Sentry: The Key Role for Maritime Autonomous Systems

02/25/2026 By Robbin Laird On February 11, 2026, Allied Command Operations (ACO), which is responsible for the planning and execution of all NATO exercises, activities and operations, noted that they began Arctic Sentry. The multi-domain activity will further strengthen NATO’s posture in the Arctic and High North as persistent NATO presence in the region grows. “Arctic Sentry underscores the Alliance’s commitment… Read more »

After Rafale? France Bets Big on India as Its Fighter Lifeline

02/18/2026 By Pierre Tran Paris - President Emmanuel Macron started Feb. 17 an official visit to India, a few days after the defense ministry in New Delhi said it had given the green light for contract talks for a further batch of Rafale and missiles, with local media reports of a deal for 114 fighter jets. “The procurement of (multi-role fighter… Read more »

From Crisis Management to Chaos Management: AI and the Collapse of Strategic Predictability

02/17/2026 By Robbin Laird For decades, national security establishments have organized around crisis management or the structured response to disruptions within fundamentally stable systems. The Cuban Missile Crisis, though terrifying, operated within understood parameters: known actors, measurable capabilities, calculable escalation ladders. Even the most dangerous moments followed a logic that skilled diplomats and military planners could navigate. The system bent under… Read more »

AI and International Security: Beyond Weapons to the Foundations of Power

02/16/2026 By Robbin Laird In February 2026, a team from OpenAI published what may become a landmark document in the emerging field of AI geopolitics. "AI and International Security: Pathways of Impact and Key Uncertainties" represents something unusual: a major AI laboratory attempting to map how its own technology could reshape the global balance of power. Drawing on interviews with former… Read more »