By Robbin Laird
Recently, I talked with my colleague Robert Czulda by video link to get an update on the situation in Poland two years into the war in Ukraine.
We started by discussing the war seem from Warsaw.
Czulda: “When the Russian invasion first started, there was shock in the Polish public and much concern. But with the Ukrainians successfully turning the Russians back the public perception was to live with the war but being very wary of the persistence of the Russians and what it means for Europe.
“Now two years later there is increased concern with the Russian versus Ukrainian capabilities and the government is increasingly concerned about the defense of Poland and of Europe against the Russian actions in Ukraine and their possible expansion.
“One response to the Russian threat has been increasingly concerned to put in place various direct defense measures, including restoring the underground bunkers built in the cold war and the possbuty of mining the border.”
Czulda has recently written a piece for us which focuses on tensions between Ukraine and Poland over the grain issue which does highlight the uncertainty of where Ukraine “fits” into Eruope either as possible member of the EU or of NATO.
And I would add that the efforts of the Nordics on defense integration as well as working the Baltic states in Poland has seen a kind of differentiation within Europe of states which see Russia as a direct threat in the near and mid-term and those European states which have expressed much less concern or commitment to enhancing their defense efforts.
I asked him about the challenge for Poland in term s of integrating their various arms effots into a more integrated force.
And he clearly indicated that this is a major challenge.
We then discussed the possibility of a cease fire in Ukraine to re-work the Western situation with regard to Ukraine. He saw that as a possibility but worried that Western leaders would take any pause as an end state whereas Putin would use the pause to re-organize for the next phase of the war in Europe.
But there is a clear danger that the much larger Russian state working with its authoritarian allies or states trading with Russia and generating revenue for them such as India would empower them to grab more Ukrainian territory and then positioning themselves to have a buffer zone from which they could expand their aggressive poicy towards Europe as a whole.
So what is the situation in Poland today?
Obviously, the Ukrainian immigration poses a challenge but the economic situation has in Czulda’s view improved over what is was at the beginning of war. Inflation is down but the pressure on Polish living conditions is substantial, such as in the housing market.
To quote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Europe is entering a ˜prewar” era, cautioning that the continent is not ready and urging European countries to step up defence investment. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It’s real and it started over two years ago.”1
Credit Graphic: Bigstock
1 Lili Bayer, Europe must get ready for looming war, Donald Tusk warns, The Guardian, 30 March 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/29/europe-must-get-ready-for-looming-war-donald-tusk-warns
The Russo-Ukrainian War After One Year: A Central and Eastern European Perspective