From Radio Shack to Revolution: The Real Story of Military Transformation

07/07/2026

By Robbin Laird

In the early 2000s, a billion-dollar Predator drone circled over a combat zone, its high-definition cameras capturing perfect imagery of enemy positions below. On the ground, a Special Forces operator—weighted down with 80 pounds of gear and under enemy fire—was effectively blind. He knew the drone was overhead, but he couldn’t see what it saw. Instead, he relied on shouted radio coordinates, trying to construct a mental picture of the battlefield while bullets snapped overhead. It was a perfect encapsulation of military dysfunction: 21st-century technology in the sky, World War II communications on the ground.

The solution didn’t emerge from a defense contractor’s engineering lab after years of development and billions in procurement funding. Instead, it came from a Chief Warrant Officer named Manuel who asked the most dangerous question possible in military bureaucracy: “If the drone can see it, why can’t I?”

Rather than wait for the official answer—which would have involved submitting requirements, waiting perhaps a decade for a properly encrypted secure system, and navigating endless procurement reviews—a major named Greg Robbins went to his local Radio Shack. He bought analog TV parts, jury-rigged a receiver using a Panasonic Toughbook laptop, pinned some antennas to his tactical vest, and hacked the drone’s video feed. It worked immediately. Ground operators could suddenly see what the Predator saw, cutting out the deadly middleman of verbal descriptions. This improvised system became ROVER (Remotely Operated Video Enhanced Receiver), a crucial capability that spread throughout the force.

This story, detailed in my new book “Lessons in Military Transformation,” captures something fundamental about how real innovation happens in military organizations and why it so often doesn’t. My work isn’t standard military history written from archives and official documents. It is a ongoing set of field reports, the product of decades spent visiting air bases, aircraft carriers, and maintenance hangars, talking to the practitioners who turn wrenches and fly missions rather than the theorists who populate Washington conference rooms.

The Innovation Protector

The Radio Shack hack reveals grassroots ingenuity, but there is another crucial element: what one might call the “innovation protector.” Brilliant ideas from the field routinely get crushed by bureaucratic antibodies unless someone with real authority shields them. In this book, that protector is former Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne, whose tenure from 2005 to 2008 became a case study in both the necessity and the fragility of disruptive leadership.

Wynne operated with a personal intensity rare among Pentagon officials. His brother Patrick, a pilot, had been shot down in Vietnam, not just by “the enemy” in some abstract sense, but specifically by a sophisticated Russian surface-to-air missile sold to North Vietnam. That detail shaped Wynne’s entire worldview. While the defense establishment in the mid-2000s focused obsessively on counterinsurgency, fighting enemies without air forces in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, Wynne fixated on peer competitors. He understood that even when America wasn’t directly fighting sophisticated adversaries, their technology was what killed American personnel. He tried to pivot the Air Force back toward high-end warfare preparation when the entire apparatus wanted more armor on Humvees.

One incident defines Wynne’s approach. He walked into a briefing on the Joint Unmanned Combat Air System (J-UCAS), a revolutionary concept for a stealthy autonomous combat drone designed to penetrate sophisticated air defenses. The program managers announced they wanted to pause development to integrate mid-air refueling capabilities. On its face, this seemed reasonable, range matters. But Wynne recognized it for what it was: requirements creep, the number one killer of military innovation.

The prototype hadn’t even proven it could fly autonomously in combat. Mandating refueling capability at that stage meant adding enormous weight, complex fuel systems, extensive new software, and fundamental structural changes. They were gold-plating a concept to death before it could even get off the whiteboard, prioritizing a peripheral process over core capability.

Wynne picked up the briefing binder and threw it across the table. It slid down and hit one of the principals. He said simply, “Come back when you have something to say about the airframe,” and walked out.

Nonetheless or perhaps because he was a protector of innovation, Wynne was eventually fired by Defense Secretary Gates, ostensibly for complex reasons but fundamentally for speaking truth to power. He kept insisting on preparing for great power conflict and building more F-22s when leadership wanted every dollar focused on the immediate wars. He was right, but right too early, the classic tragedy of visionary leadership in sclerotic institutions.

From Crisis Management to Chaos Management

Traditional military thinking assumes peace as the baseline state. Crises erupt, you surge forces to fix the problem, then return to stability. This worldview implies that stability is the natural order of things.

Those days are over. We’ve entered an era requiring chaos management and accepting that the environment is permanently turbulent. You’re not trying to fix it and return to some imagined stable state. You’re trying to operate effectively within persistent instability.

The V-22 Osprey exemplifies this shift. When it emerged, the press savaged it. It crashed in testing. It cost enormous sums. Critics asked why the Marines needed this complicated tilt-rotor aircraft when helicopters were cheaper. They saw it as just a faster helicopter, a marginally improved truck.

But that wasn’t the point. When Marines actually deployed it to the Pacific, they realized it wasn’t a truck at all: it was connective tissue. Its speed and range fundamentally changed battlefield geometry. Captain Medlin, an officer I interviewed last year at 2nd Marine Air Wing, offers a vivid comparison: old warfare resembles a Walmart Supercenter, while distributed operations resemble mom-and-pop stores.

The Walmart model means building massive bases like Bagram in Afghanistan, everything in one place, incredibly efficient, with fuel, ammunition, communications, even fast food franchises. But against a peer competitor like China or Russia, such bases are giant targets. One missile volley ends your operation.

The alternative distributes everything: fuel on this island, ammunition on that one, a temporary runway on a third. If the enemy hits one node, the network survives. This is wildly inefficient in the traditional sense—which is precisely why it’s called chaos management, not efficiency management. You deliberately trade efficiency for survivability.

This only works if personnel can think independently. You cannot run a distributed network with rigid, top-down rulebooks. Which brings us to the cowbells.

Major General Swan, then commanding 2nd Marine Air Wing, actually handed out physical cowbells, literal clanging bells, I know for I have one, to reward improvisation. If a maintainer ignored the manual to get a jet operational faster, he received a cowbell. It was both humorous and deadly serious: a tangible signal from leadership that output mattered more than bureaucratic process. In chaotic environments, people waiting for permission to act are already dead. You need a culture actively incentivizing intelligent rule-breaking.

Training for Failure

But you can’t just declare that chaos is acceptable and expect success. Marines at Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One (MAWTS-1) in Yuma, Arizona, created “the innovation triangle.” In most military organizations, testers work in Maryland, the schoolhouse operates in Florida, and operational pilots fly from Virginia. The feedback loop takes years.

At MAWTS-1, they’re neighbors. The school, testers, and operational squadrons co-locate. If a tactic fails on a morning flight, the instructor knows by lunch and testers are working on fixes by dinner. They train for what they call “the physics of combat”, not PowerPoint scenarios, but actively practicing failure. They assume radios will be jammed, logistics won’t arrive, and plans will collapse on contact with the enemy. In chaos management, the plan never survives that contact.

The Digital Revolution and the Rise of Purple Shirts

Parallel to cultural transformation runs technological revolution. Squadron HMLA-267 took H-1 platforms, Hueys and Cobras with DNA from Vietnam, and gave them digital brain transplants. They look like old helicopters but function as flying server nodes, sharing targeting data and seeing what F-35s see. The pilot isn’t just a shooter anymore; he’s an information manager.

This crystallizes in the kill web. Traditional warfare relied on the “kill chain” with find, fix, track, target, engage. Linear, sequential, like old Christmas lights: if one bulb burns out, the whole string goes dark. If your forward radar gets jammed, you can’t shoot.

The kill web is a mesh network. If your radar fails, the shooter instantly pulls targeting data from a drone, ship, or satellite. The path to target changes dynamically. You can’t break the chain because there isn’t a single chain to break. The F-35 serves as quarterback, sucking up data from everywhere and distributing it to everyone.

In an Israeli operation called Operation Rising Lion, Israeli pilots among the world’s best refused to fly into contested airspace without F-35s leading, not because they needed its weapons but its sensors. The F-35 managed the web, making older F-15s lethal by telling them exactly where to look without activating their own radars.

But this creates cultural upheaval. If the network is the real weapon, the pilot pulling the trigger isn’t necessarily the most important person anymore. Vice Admiral Miller noted when I visited him at the Navy Air Boss that next war will be won or lost by “purple shirts” or the MISR (Maritime Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) officers.

On aircraft carriers, purple shirts are traditionally fuel handlers, not the personnel who receive medals. But MISR officers are “warrior solution architects.” We’re shifting from the right side of the kill chain (target and engage, the Top Gun stuff) to the left side (find, fix, track). In modern warfare, finding the enemy is far harder than killing them. If you can find a Chinese carrier, you can sink it. The challenge is finding it in a massive ocean while they jam your sensors and hide in noise.

This completely inverts traditional hierarchies. Fighter pilots who’ve spent careers as gods of the air wing must accept they’re nodes on a network. The intelligence officer who isn’t even airborne might be calling plays. This isn’t a software problem: it’s a status problem. If pilots don’t trust Intel officers to guide the fight, the F-35 becomes an expensive paperweight.

The Synthesis

Bringing it together: from thrown binders to Radio Shack hacks to Pacific mom-and-pop stores to the rise of purple shirts, technology proves almost secondary to behavior. Transformation isn’t a destination you reach or a product you buy. It’s an evolutionary behavior, not a revolutionary event.

You can purchase F-35s, but running them with a Walmart mindset ensures defeat. As one deep dive participant noted, you can buy the world’s best electric guitar, but if you don’t know jazz, you can’t improvise. We’re entering a jazz era of warfare. Crisis management was classical music, perfectly following written notes. Chaos management is jazz: know your instrument, listen to the team, improvise when the rhythm changes.

This circles back to the Radio Shack moment. We spend millions on platforms and argue endlessly about defense budgets. But the most dangerous weapon system discussed here wasn’t the stealth fighter. It was the mindset of a major with a Radio Shack receipt and the audacity to fix a billion-dollar failure with a soldering iron.

The ultimate question isn’t whether we can build better technology. It’s whether we’re building systems that allow that major to exist and thrive, or bureaucracies that ensure he gets fired for trying.

By spending decades with practitioners rather than theorists, it is clear to me that there is a persistent gap between Washington’s elegant plans and operational reality. The Radio Shack hack, the thrown briefing binder, the cowbells, the refusal of Israeli pilots to fly without F-35 sensor coverage, these aren’t anomalies to be dismissed. They’re data points revealing fundamental truths about how complex organizations actually innovate under pressure.

The tragedy is that we already know what works. We’ve seen it demonstrated repeatedly. The challenge is that what works often violates established protocols, threatens existing hierarchies, and makes people uncomfortable. Michael Wynne got fired. The ROVER system was developed outside official channels. The digital transformation of old Huey helicopters happened because maintainers and pilots refused to accept that legacy platforms were obsolete.

Military transformation isn’t simply about buying the next generation of technology. It’s about creating conditions where the people closest to problems have authority to solve them creatively. It’s about leaders willing to throw binders and award cowbells. It’s about accepting that permanent turbulence is the new normal, not an aberration from peacetime stability.

The next war won’t be won by whoever has the best PowerPoint presentations. It will be won by whoever can manage the chaos. And managing chaos requires jazz musicians, not orchestra players following a score. It requires Radio Shack majors with soldering irons, not procurement specialists with five-year timelines. The technology will follow. The question is whether the culture can evolve fast enough to use it.

B-2 Spirit Performs Freedom 250 Flyover In Washington

07/06/2026

A U.S. Air Force B 2 Spirit aircraft flies over the Washington Monument in Washington, D.C., July 4, 2026. The flyover was conducted in celebration of the United States’ 250th birthday and highlighted the contributions and commitment of the U.S. Air Force in defending freedom.

(U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Bryce Moore)

The Portuguese Invented the Choke Point

By Robbin Laird

When visiting Bahrain some years ago, I made a point of seeing the Portuguese fort.

Standing inside those ancient walls, looking at the stonework — Arab foundations overlaid with Portuguese military engineering — I was struck by a simple but powerful thought: the strategic logic that drove a small European nation to project power across half the globe in the early sixteenth century has never really gone away. It has simply changed uniforms.

Kenneth Maxwell, my long-time colleague and collaborator, helped me understand what I was actually looking at. His analysis of the Portuguese presence in the Persian Gulf cuts through centuries of accumulated strategic thinking to reveal something foundational: the Portuguese did not merely discover trade routes. They invented the modern concept of the maritime choke point as an instrument of geopolitical power.

The Portuguese achievement was extraordinary by any measure. Beginning with Vasco da Gama’s arrival at Calicut on the Malabar coast of India in May 1498, within three decades a nation of perhaps a million and a half people had established a fortified trading network stretching from Mozambique and East Africa through Goa, Ceylon, and Malacca, all the way to Macao and eventually Nagasaki. They accomplished this not through overwhelming numbers — they never had those — but through a ruthless concentration of superior military technology at carefully selected geographic nodes.

The first Viceroy of India, Dom Francisco de Almeida, articulated the strategic doctrine with remarkable clarity in a letter to King Manuel. Sea power, he argued, was everything. Fortresses on land were secondary. Control the sea lanes and the trade would follow. Lose the sea and nothing else would matter. It was one of the earliest and most lucid expressions of what we would today recognize as a maritime-centered theory of strategic competition.

What Maxwell identifies as the Portuguese most enduring contribution is their systematic identification and exploitation of maritime choke points. Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Malacca commanding the passage between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Aden at the mouth of the Red Sea, though here they ultimately failed, unable to dislodge the Ottomans who seized it in 1538 and held it for nearly a century.

The logic was elegant and ruthless in equal measure. Control the narrow passage and you control the trade. Control the trade and you control the revenue. Control the revenue and you can sustain the entire enterprise. The Portuguese enforced this system through a combination of fortified bases and what they called cartazas, essentially licenses to operate, granted to allies and denied to enemies. It was a protection racket backed by cannon, and for a generation it worked.

At Hormuz, the customs house they controlled sat at the crossroads of Iranian, Arab, and Indian commerce. Overland routes connecting the Indian Ocean to Europe through Basra, Baghdad, Aleppo, and Tripoli all passed through or adjacent to Portuguese-controlled checkpoints. At Bahrain — first reached by the Portuguese fleet in 1514, fortified by 1521, and held until the Safavid Shah Abbas expelled them in 1602, they commanded the Gulf’s internal trade routes. At Muscat, defended by a handful of Portuguese officers and locally recruited auxiliaries, they maintained the most strongly fortified base on the Arabian peninsula from 1508 until 1650.

The Portuguese enterprise was ultimately a thalassocracy — a sea-based empire that by its nature could never fully dominate the land. The great continental powers of the era, the Ottomans, the Safavids, the Mughals, operated on a different strategic plane. Portuguese control was always thin, always dependent on local cooperation, always vulnerable to the moment when a land power chose to contest the shore.

That vulnerability was the system’s structural flaw. When Shah Abbas allied with an English flotilla in 1622, some two thousand Portuguese were expelled from Hormuz. The choke point they had held for over a century changed hands. When the Omanis of the al-Ya’ruba dynasty moved on Muscat in 1650, that fell too. The Dutch and the English East India Companies, learning from and improving upon the Portuguese model, eventually replaced the original architects.

What makes Maxwell’s analysis so compelling for anyone thinking about contemporary maritime strategy is precisely this durability of the underlying template. The Strait of Hormuz remains today one of the world’s most consequential maritime chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil supply transiting its waters. The Strait of Malacca remains the primary shipping corridor connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the strategic waterway at the center of Indo-Pacific competition. Aden and Bab-el-Mandeb remain flashpoints.

The Portuguese did not simply find these places on a map.

They recognized their strategic logic, built physical infrastructure to exploit it, and established a pattern of great power competition over maritime access that has never ended.

Standing inside that fort in Bahrain, you are standing inside an idea that is still very much alive and still very much contested.

The Portuguese in the Persian Gulf: Hormuz, Bahrain and Mosul

WTI 2-26, the King Stallion and the Long-Range Raid

07/03/2026

By Robbin Laird

In the clear desert night over Arizona, a CH-53K King Stallion slid into position behind the tanker, its rotors biting into thin air as the crew prepared to take the hose once more. Below, the Sonoran Desert stretched away in darkness. Above and around, the aircraft was alone with its mission. The long-range raid during WTI 2-26 was still in its opening movements, but the key enabler was already on stage: a heavy-lift helicopter whose foundational design premise is to make distance, weight, and temperature less decisive as constraints on Marine assault support.

It was not a dramatic moment in the Hollywood sense. There were no enemy surface-to-air threats pressing in, no emergency that required heroic improvisation. What made it significant was precisely its matter-of-fact quality: the plug was planned, expected, and executed as a routine element of an already-complex tactical evolution. That normalization, the King Stallion on the hose as a standard instrument of Marine Corps assault support, not an exception or a demonstration, is among the most important things WTI 2-26 produced.

MAWTS-1 and the Logic of the Long-Range Raid

Weapons and Tactics Instructor (WTI) courses at MAWTS-1 are built on a straightforward but demanding premise: force real crews and real platforms to solve operational problems that look uncomfortably like the ones the Corps expects to face in the next fight, not the last. The scenarios are not scripted for success. They are designed to surface gaps, expose friction, and generate learning under conditions of meaningful operational pressure. For decades, the long-range raid has been one of the signature evolutions of that curriculum, a way of stretching assault support aviation across range, threat, and integration challenges that go well beyond a standard workup.

In WTI 2-26, the CH-53 community brought a different aircraft to that enduring problem. The CH-53K King Stallion, now entering fleet service as the Marines’ premier heavy-lift and distributed logistics asset, took the lead role in the long-range raid evolution. Its presence was not incidental. MAWTS-1 and the heavy-lift community have been deliberately integrating the Kilo into progressively more demanding WTI scenarios, using the training environment to validate a new concept of operations and to build the institutional knowledge that will carry into fleet practice.

The scenario itself was classic MAWTS-1 in its construction. A force had to project combat power and sustainment across significant distance under the assumption that fixed infrastructure was either absent, degraded, or under threat. The answer was not a single aircraft or a single tactic, but a composite of platforms, fuel planning, routing, and timing, all orchestrated by WTI students and instructors who were simultaneously executing the mission and being evaluated on how they solved it. The CH-53K’s role within that framework was at once straightforward and demanding: move Marines and critical cargo long-range, on time, and in condition to fight, operating at or near the edge of the performance envelope throughout.

Air-to-Air Refueling as a Concept of Operations, Not a Workaround

Air-to-air refueling was central to the raid’s execution. Imagery from the evolution shows the CH-53K on the hose in flight, taking fuel to extend its reach deeper into the exercise battlespace. The significance of this detail is easy to understate.

In the emerging CH-53K concept of operations, the ability to plug into a tanker and push further is part of the planned architecture. The King Stallion is not envisioned as a shuttle running loads between known forward operating bases; it is envisioned as a roaming logistics and assault support node, one that can operate across a much wider area of the battlespace because aerial refueling is baked into the mission planning rather than treated as exceptional. This matters enormously in a Pacific or Indo-Pacific context, where distances between suitable landing sites can be prohibitive, where fixed basing is contested or unavailable, and where the ability to sustain stand-in forces depends on a logistics chain that does not require infrastructure the adversary can target and destroy.

The Kilo’s aerial refueling capability is complemented by the power margins its new engines and drivetrain provide. The difference in available power compared to the legacy CH-53E is substantial, particularly in hot-and-high conditions of the kind routinely encountered at Yuma and at many of the expeditionary sites that feature in Pacific planning. Greater power margins translate directly into operational options: heavier loads at range, more margin in degraded environmental or combat conditions, and the ability to treat high-density altitude as a planning factor rather than a mission-limiting constraint. For a force building its logistics around distributed operations and expeditionary advanced base concepts, those margins are not marginal improvements. They are the difference between a mission that works and one that doesn’t.

Fly-by-Wire and the Cognitive Dimension of Heavy Lift

For the crews executing the raid, the CH-53K’s full-authority digital fly-by-wire system is perhaps the most immediately tangible improvement over the legacy platform. Fly-by-wire gives the Kilo a level of stability and handling precision that is especially valuable during the most demanding phases of a long-range raid: formation flight at night, refueling joins under pressure, approaches to austere and unprepared landing zones, and external lift operations when the aircraft is at or near maximum gross weight.

MAWTS-1 leadership has been explicit that fly-by-wire’s value is not primarily about pilot comfort. It is about cognitive bandwidth. In the most demanding phases of a complex tactical evolution, crews face simultaneous demands from the aircraft itself, from the tactical situation, from the threat picture, and from the joint network they are supporting. Every increment of workload reduction that fly-by-wire provides, every moment when the aircraft handles an unwanted excursion automatically rather than requiring the pilot to intervene, is cognitive bandwidth available for the tactical problem. At scale, across a fleet of aircraft and many missions, that difference accumulates into lower risk, better decisions, and more successful mission execution.

This is not an abstract engineering point. Pilots who have transitioned from the Echo to the Kilo have described the difference in handling as qualitatively significant. Night formation flying in the Kilo is described as meaningfully less demanding than in the Echo. External lift at heavy weights, always among the most workload-intensive tasks in rotary-wing aviation, benefits from the Kilo’s stability augmentation in ways crews notice immediately. For a platform whose mission profile regularly stacks multiple high-workload evolutions in sequence, a refueling join followed by a low-level approach to an austere LZ followed by a precision external load delivery, those handling qualities represent a genuine operational advantage.

The Triple-Hook System and the Meaning of Distributed Logistics

The CH-53K’s triple-hook external lift system underpins another dimension of what the WTI long-range raid was demonstrating. The raid was not simply about moving people; it was about moving meaningful combat sustainment under contested or austere conditions. With the ability to carry significant fuel loads externally on the order of tens of thousands of pounds, the Kilo can deliver fuel and heavy cargo without necessarily landing and offloading. That distinction matters. A helicopter that must land to deliver a load is a helicopter that must accept the exposure, time, and vulnerability that come with being on the ground in a forward or hostile environment. A helicopter that can deliver externally, from a hover or a low approach, shortens its time in the objective area and fundamentally changes its risk calculus.

In a raid context, this enables a range of concepts that MAWTS-1 has been exploring across multiple WTI iterations. Bulk fuel delivery to an expeditionary F-35B operating site. Critical equipment delivery to a forward element that cannot afford to wait for a ground resupply chain that may not exist. Recovery of a downed rotorcraft from a location too remote or too contested for a surface recovery. All of these missions fall within the broad heavy-lift design space that WTI repeatedly stresses and the triple-hook system, combined with the K’s power margins and aerial refueling capability, makes the aircraft more capable in all of them than its predecessor.

The connection to Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) and distributed maritime operations is direct and intentional. The Marine Corps has been building a strategic concept around the idea of small, dispersed, difficult-to-target forces operating from a network of austere sites across a contested maritime environment. That concept requires logistics. Specifically, it requires logistics that can function without the fixed infrastructure those austere sites, by definition, do not have. The CH-53K’s combination of range, payload, aerial refueling, and external lift capability is not incidental to that concept. It is close to indispensable to it.

Col Purcell and the Institutional Argument

WTI 2-26 did not occur in an institutional vacuum. As a recent MAWTS-1’s commanding officer, Col Eric Purcell, himself a CH-53 pilot with deep experience in the platform, has been explicit and consistent in his argument about what the King Stallion represents and how it should be integrated into Marine Corps thinking. His position is not that the Kilo is a better CH-53E, it is that the Kilo is a different proposition entirely, one that enables different concepts of operations and should be treated as a unique enabler for distributed logistics and force mobility rather than simply a like-for-like replacement for aging 53Es.

That argument has implications that extend beyond the heavy-lift community. If the Kilo is not a replacement but an enabler of new concepts, then the force design and planning work that proceeds from its introduction needs to reflect that distinction. Raid planning, logistics architecture, EABO site selection, tanker support requirements, and the integration of heavy lift with stand-in force concepts all potentially look different when the heavy-lift asset available is a King Stallion rather than a Super Stallion. MAWTS-1’s sustained effort to use WTI as a laboratory for that rethinking, rather than simply substituting the Kilo into existing CH-53E roles and planning assumptions is one of the more consequential things the schoolhouse is doing.

Earlier WTI iterations had already begun integrating multiple CH-53Ks into broader mobility and support packages, exploring how the aircraft performs in composite operations alongside MV-22s, F-35Bs, and other elements of the Marine aviation enterprise. WTI 2-26’s long-range raid represents a continuation and deepening of that trajectory. The King Stallion is now treated as a routine, expected instrument for solving long-range assault support problems, not a guest appearance, not a proof-of-concept demonstration, but a platform the students plan around and the instructors evaluate against.

What Normalization Actually Means

The most important product of the WTI 2-26 long-range raid may not be any specific technical validation or any particular tactic, technique, or procedure. It may be the normalization itself. When WTI students plan a long-range raid and the CH-53K is simply “the heavy-lift aircraft they have”, an asset whose performance they design around rather than an exceptional capability they have to carefully justify using, something significant has shifted in how the Corps thinks and plans.

Normalization in a training environment is not automatic. It requires sustained institutional commitment to integrating a new platform into scenarios where its performance genuinely matters, where the planning assumptions change if it is or is not available, and where students develop the intuition and the habit of mind that will carry into fleet operations. MAWTS-1’s progressive integration of the Kilo across multiple WTI cohorts, in increasingly complex scenarios, with leadership that has articulated a clear operational rationale, represents exactly that kind of sustained commitment.

For the students who planned and executed the WTI 2-26 raid, the experience produces something that classroom instruction cannot replicate: the embodied knowledge of what the King Stallion can do, of where its limits lie, of how it integrates with the other elements of the air-ground task force, and of the planning factors that change when a CH-53K is available instead of an Echo. That knowledge will carry into fleet squadrons, into deployment planning, into pre-mission planning for real-world operations. It represents a form of institutional learning that is difficult to generate outside of a demanding, operationally relevant training environment.

The Heavylift Piece of the Distributed Operations Puzzle

By the time the CH-53K turned back toward Yuma at the conclusion of the raid, the students and instructors had accumulated something more than another set of WTI sorties. They had validated, in a concrete and operationally meaningful way, that the King Stallion’s claims as a revolutionary advance in long-range heavy lift are not abstract promises but capabilities the fleet can plan against today. The aircraft performed. The concept of operations worked. The crews adapted to the platform’s characteristics in the ways that MAWTS-1 needs to see before it can confidently say that a new way of thinking about heavy-lift assault support is taking root.

The broader message for the Marine Corps and for the joint force audience that watches MAWTS-1 closely is pointed and timely. The long-range raid is no longer a theoretical Pacific vignette on a briefing slide. It is an event flown with operational crews in an aircraft designed from the outset to make that kind of mission routine. The distributed operations concepts that animate Force Design 2030 and its successors require a logistics architecture that can function without fixed infrastructure at the forward edge. The CH-53K’s combination of payload, range, aerial refueling, fly-by-wire handling, and external lift capability places it at the center of that architecture.

In the years to come, as more King Stallions flow to fleet squadrons and WTI scenarios grow more complex and more joint, the long-range raid will continue to evolve. New tanker integrations, new external load concepts, new coordination with autonomous logistics platforms, new interfaces with the joint network, all of these will add layers to what WTI is building. But the WTI 2-26 iteration marks an early and significant moment: the moment when the Marine Corps began to act, not just to argue, as if the heavy-lift piece of its distributed operations puzzle is finally in place.

Finishing German Reunification: From Cultural Divide to Defense Culture

07/01/2026

When I worked on German reunification in the 1980s, one of the core concerns was not simply whether the two German states could be brought together institutionally, but whether the deep historical and cultural gap between East and West Germany could be bridged in any meaningful way. The question was whether a population socialized on opposite sides of the Cold War’s dividing line could form a common strategic culture, above all, a shared understanding of threat and a shared will to defend a new, unified Germany.

When reunification finally came in 1990, there was a burst of optimism in Bonn, Washington, and other capitals that institutional, economic, and legal integration would, over time, pull strategic perceptions into alignment as well. The experience of the last three decades suggests that optimism was significantly misplaced.

The Germany that emerged under successive governments, and most notably under Angela Merkel, did not develop a single, coherent defense culture vis-à-vis Russia. Instead, it remained internally divided between different historical memories, political reflexes, and regional attitudes toward Moscow. One of the consequences was a Germany that repeatedly underinvested in defense and avoided drawing the logical conclusions from Russia’s trajectory after 2008 and 2014, even as allies in Eastern Europe recalibrated far more quickly.

Today, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany is engaged in something closer to a deliberate strategic-cultural refounding. Merz has framed Putin’s Russia as the central military threat to German and European security and has tied his chancellorship to transforming the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army. In the process, he may be accomplishing something earlier generations did not manage: using the hard facts of Russia’s war in Ukraine and NATO’s eastern defense requirements to “finish” German reunification at the level of defense culture—and, critically, to complete the structural transformation of Germany’s own strategic role within the alliance.

Three Layers of Reunification

It is useful to distinguish three different layers of what we casually call “reunification.”

At the constitutional and territorial level, reunification was completed quickly in 1990. The former GDR entered the Federal Republic; institutions were extended eastward; NATO and the EU absorbed a larger Germany. At the socioeconomic level, reunification has been partial, uneven, and contested. Eastern regions lagged behind, producing enduring resentments and political fragmentation that still shape party politics today.

At the strategic-cultural level, reunification has remained incomplete. East and West Germans have continued to see Russia differently, to weigh military instruments differently, and to hold very different expectations about Germany’s role in Europe.

Survey data over the last decade have repeatedly demonstrated the fault line. East Germans have been more likely than West Germans to view Russia as an important partner, less likely to favor sanctions, and more inclined to interpret the Ukraine war as partly provoked by NATO. A 2020 analysis found that 21 percent of East Germans identified Russia as one of Germany’s most important foreign partners, compared with only 9 percent of West Germans. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a significantly higher share of eastern respondents believed NATO bore substantial responsibility for the conflict and were more open to the notion that Ukraine somehow “belongs” to Russia.

These attitudes did not translate automatically into policy, but they formed part of the political environment in which German leaders operated. They made any serious rearmament or starkly confrontational Russia policy riskier, feeding into a broader West German pacifist and “civilian power” tradition that already inclined Berlin toward restraint. Understanding this divide is not merely of historical interest; it is the precondition for understanding what Merz is now attempting to do—and what he is attempting to overcome.

Germany’s Strategic Position Transformed

The cultural divide matters the more because Germany’s strategic position within NATO has been fundamentally transformed by enlargement. During the Cold War, the inner German border was the front line. West Germany was the anticipated battlefield; logistical support flowed from the United States through British ports and, after Spain joined NATO, via a southern route as well. Germany was the destination, not the corridor.

With NATO’s expansion to include Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, and others, Germany has become the alliance’s critical transit hub. With the Alps forming a natural southern barrier, virtually any NATO reinforcement of the eastern flank must traverse German territory. Germany is now simultaneously the deep logistics base for the alliance’s eastern defense and the nation whose unresolved strategic-cultural divide could, in extremis, impede that function.

This shift demands capabilities Germany never required during the Cold War—throughput capacity, infrastructure protection, host nation support on a massive scale, and domestic political cohesion sufficient to sustain the movement of hundreds of thousands of multinational troops. Operation Plan Germany (OPLAN DEU) focuses not on German units defending German soil but on how to move forces across German territory to fight to the east. The failure to develop a unified strategic culture is thus not merely a domestic German question; it is an alliance vulnerability of the first order.

Equally significant is the hybrid dimension. Russia’s strategy specifically targets Germany’s role as NATO’s connective tissue—through sabotage, cyberattack, and disruption below the threshold of armed conflict. Domestic political fragmentation and unresolved strategic-cultural divisions create potential vulnerabilities to influence operations that a more cohesive strategic culture would resist. The cultural gap left by incomplete reunification has, in this sense, a direct military relevance.

Merkel and the Management of a Fragmented Strategic Culture

This backdrop helps explain the Merkel years. Merkel’s Russia policy is now widely acknowledged, even by Merkel herself, to have underreacted to Moscow’s revisionism and left the Bundeswehr in poor shape for deterrence. Despite Russia’s war in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea, and the 2014–2015 fighting in the Donbas, Germany under her leadership never met the NATO two-percent defense spending pledge and remained deeply entangled in energy dependence on Russia through Nord Stream 2 and related infrastructure.

Some of this reflected personal and political style; Merkel specialized in incrementalism and damage limitation. Some of it was coalition politics with partners skeptical of military solutions and higher defense budgets. But a deeper dynamic was at work: there simply was not a unified German strategic culture that would support a decisive pivot away from Russia and toward a hard NATO deterrence posture. Instead, three subcultures coexisted uneasily.

A West German “civilian power” strand, strongly anchored in post-1945 pacifism and committed to Wandel durch Handel, remained reflexively wary of anything that resembled militarization. An East German strand, drawing on GDR-era ties and post-1990 disillusionment with the terms of unification, was more empathetic to Moscow’s perspectives and more suspicious of Western narratives about Russia. A smaller Atlanticist-expeditionary community in political, military, and expert circles understood the Russian threat and took NATO obligations seriously but lacked the numbers and public backing to drive policy.

Merkel governed by triangulating among these camps. The result was a Germany that talked of responsibility, supported sanctions and reassurance missions, but never truly configured its force posture, its energy mix, or its strategic narrative around long-term confrontation with a revisionist Russia. Defense dropped down the hierarchy of priorities not because no one understood the risks, but because there was no shared national identity built around the idea of defending the new Germany against the new Russia. Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech in February 2022 represented a rhetorical break, but the institutional and cultural follow-through remained halting until Merz.

The Merz Moment: Toward a Common Defense Culture

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has moved quickly to invert many of these assumptions. In his first government statements, he defined Putin’s Russia as a direct threat to Europe and German security and committed to providing the Bundeswehr with the resources required to become “the strongest conventional army in Europe.” He has tied this rearmament explicitly to the defense of NATO’s eastern flank, most notably through the decision to establish the first permanent foreign deployment of German combat forces, a full brigade in Lithuania.

This shift is about more than budgets and basing. In speech after speech, Merz frames Russia not as a difficult partner to be managed but as an adversary engaged in hybrid and military efforts to destabilize European democracies, including Germany. He has endorsed successive sanctions packages on Russia as necessary for European credibility and has warned against illusions that a quick return to pre-war “business as usual” is possible. The rhetoric matters because strategic culture is not simply inherited; it is shaped by political leadership, by concrete deployments, and by the narratives that link those deployments to national identity.

By stating in the Bundestag that Germany must “be able to defend ourselves so that we don’t have to defend ourselves,” and that higher military investment is not done “to do the United States a favor, but because Russia actively threatens the freedom of the entire Euro-Atlantic area,” Merz is positioning defense as a central expression of German national identity in this era. That is qualitatively different from what his predecessors were willing to do.

The domestically most interesting dimension of Merz’s approach is its internal geography. During the Cold War, West Germany was the political and economic hub while East Germany was the forward glacis of the Warsaw Pact. After 1990, the disparities in prosperity and political culture that emerged between East and West hardened into cultural fault lines. Russia policy was one of the sharpest: western Germany’s commercial networks and the Ostpolitik tradition inclined Berlin toward engagement; eastern Länder, more exposed and historically more alert to Russian imperialism, often held different instincts but lacked political weight.

Merz’s security agenda recasts this internal map. By anchoring German strategy on the premise that the security of Lithuania is Germany’s security—and backing it with the permanent stationing of a Bundeswehr brigade—he implicitly relocates the Republic’s strategic center of gravity eastward and northward. This valorizes the threat perceptions that eastern German Länder have held for decades and reframes what was once a regional division as a shared national stake in NATO’s eastern border. The rebuilding of heavy land forces—Leopard 2 tanks, Boxer infantry carriers, organic artillery—resonates with army units and bases concentrated in eastern Germany, reinforcing a material connection between the defense buildup and the communities that host it.

At the same time, the generational structure of eastern Germany is changing. Younger East Germans, who have lived only in a unified, NATO-anchored Germany, do not carry the same personal memories of the GDR or the same instinctive identification with Moscow as a protector or reference point. Survey data still show a gap between East and West in threat perceptions and attitudes toward sanctions, but the distance is narrowing as Russia’s aggression continues and its costs become more palpable across Europe.

The Risks: Fragmentation and Fatigue

None of this is guaranteed. The same structural factors that constrained Merkel have not disappeared. Political fragmentation is intensifying, with antisystem parties on both right and left often combining hostility to NATO, skepticism of Ukraine support, and varying degrees of sympathy or “understanding” for Russia. These parties draw disproportionately on eastern discontent, leveraging the socioeconomic and historical divides that have made a unified strategic culture so elusive.

Sustaining high defense spending over multiple budget cycles will require hard tradeoffs. If Germans come to see rearmament as a zero-sum competitor to social spending rather than as the precondition for preserving social and economic stability, the current political consensus will erode. The burden of proof will lie with the government and the Bundeswehr to show that the new resources translate into real capability, readiness, and credible deterrence—not merely into procurement headlines.

There is also the question of memory politics. For many East Germans, NATO and the West were not experienced as a smooth liberation but as the beginning of a period of deindustrialization, social disruption, and loss of status. If the new defense culture is perceived as one more West German project imposed from above, rather than as a genuinely shared endeavor rooted in the security of the eastern Länder themselves, it will reinforce rather than heal the strategic divide. The framing matters enormously: collective resilience against renewed Russian imperialism lands very differently from an alliance obligation negotiated in Brussels and Washington.

Germany’s role as NATO’s logistical backbone also creates a vulnerability that amplifies the stakes of domestic cohesion. If political fragmentation permits the kind of disruption whether physical, cyber, or through parliamentary paralysis that degrades Germany’s ability to function as the alliance’s transit hub, the consequences extend far beyond Germany itself. The eastern allies are acutely aware of this dependency. The Lithuanian brigade commitment is in part an answer to their concern: Germany is not just a logistics base, but a frontline participant.

Completing the Strategic Chapter of Reunification

The alternative to the risks outlined above, drifting back into a divided German strategic culture at a time of open Russian revisionism, is worse. The core of the argument presented here is that reunification, as a historical project, cannot be considered complete until the Germans of the East and West share a basic, internalized understanding that defending NATO’s eastern frontier is synonymous with defending their own country.

That requires more than policy shifts; it demands a narrative that links Germany’s post-1990 identity as a unified, democratic, European state to the concrete military measures now being taken on the eastern flank. It requires acknowledging past missteps—including the overoptimistic belief that economic integration and goodwill alone would converge strategic cultures—and recognizing that the hard lessons of Russian behavior since 2008 must now be fully integrated into German self-understanding.

From that perspective, Merz’s emphasis on Russia as a direct threat, his pledge to transform the Bundeswehr, his willingness to take on the political costs of rearmament, and his decision to station German forces permanently in Lithuania are not just policy corrections. They are an attempt, conscious or not, to complete the strategic dimension of German reunification: to forge a single German defense culture out of historically divergent experiences, memories, and political reflexes.

The question I asked in the 1980s—whether a population socialized on opposite sides of the Cold War’s dividing line could form a common strategic culture—is, thirty-five years later, still open. The answer being written today, in the Bundeswehr brigades deploying to the Baltic, in the defense budgets passing the Bundestag, and in the slowly shifting survey data in the eastern Länder, will shape not only Germany’s future but the security architecture of the entire Euro-Atlantic area.

MV-22 Osprey’s Support Personnel Recovery

U.S. Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey’s and KC-130J’s work hand-in-hand with U.S. Air Force Pararescuemen, or PJ’s, assigned to the Personnel Recovery Task Force at Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa to tackle the long operational distances faced when conducting rescue operations. Wherever forces are deployed, they stand ready to bring them home,

DJIBOUTI

04.22.2026

Video by Senior Airman Michelle Ferrari 

Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa

Assault Support Tactics 1 at Chocolate Mountain: The Integrated Fight at WTI 2-26

06/30/2026

Fifteen photographs from April 13, 2026, at the Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range in California document the most operationally complex exercise in the WTI 2-26 series: Assault Support Tactics 1. The photographs span the full operational picture from contractor technicians assembling threat-representative UAS at a mountain observation point, through ground teams climbing to their positions on the ridgeline, to terminal control teams coordinating aviation on the objective, to the large-scale assault itself as helicopters raise dust clouds across the desert floor beside a mock city target complex.

This is the exercise that integrates everything the WTI course has been building toward.

AST-1 is the first major combined-arms integration exercise in the WTI assault support sequence. It brings together assault aviation, terminal attack control, OPFOR UAS threat simulation, ground observer teams, and a realistic objective area into a single scenario that demands coordination across every function simultaneously. The prospective WTI who can plan, execute, and debrief AST-1 has demonstrated the integration competency that the entire first half of the course has been building.

The OPFOR UAS: Contractors and Threat Replication

Images 1 and 2 show contractors Emanuel Puerta and Bradley Romeher at Observation Point 4, assembling and balance-checking medium fixed-wing pusher-prop UAS on the rocky desert floor at the base of the Chocolate Mountain range. The aircraft are commercial-military hybrid designs consistent with the threat-representative UAS profiles used across the WTI UAS threat simulation program. They will fly profiles replicating adversary ISR drones or loitering munitions against the assault force operating in the valley below.

The use of contractors for the OPFOR UAS role is analytically significant. MAWTS-1 has built a threat simulation capability that replicates the specific flight characteristics, sensor packages, and employment patterns of adversary UAS systems using purpose-configured commercial platforms operated by specialist contractors. This is not a nominal threat marker. It is a realistic replication of the aerial threat environment that Marine assault aviation will face in actual operations.

The balance-point check visible in Image 2 with two operators checking the center of gravity of the airframe is the kind of precision pre-launch procedure that distinguishes a professionally operated threat simulation program from an improvised substitute. A UAS whose center of gravity is off will fly erratically and fail to replicate the threat profile the exercise requires. The contractors are doing the job to standard. The exercise depends on it.

The Climb: Ground Teams Moving to Position

Images 3, 4, and 5 document the approach march of mixed Marine and civilian teams ascending the Chocolate Mountain ridgeline to their observation positions. The terrain is demanding: loose rock, steep grade, no trail, full equipment loads including radios, antennas, and weapons.

Image 5 is the most visually striking of the three: five figures spread across the skyline of the ridgeline, each separated by intervals, all moving toward the crest. The scale of the mountain above them, the hard blue sky behind them, and the spacing of the figures give the image a quality that is simultaneously tactical and austere. This is the physical reality of the terminal controller’s approach march: there is no road to the observation point. The team walks up.

The civilian figure visible in Image 3, blue jeans among the camouflage, is the contractor UAS operator ascending to OP4 alongside the Marine terminal control team. The integration of contractor and military personnel on the same approach march to the same observation point captures the operational reality of how WTI’s threat simulation program actually works: the UAS operator and the terminal controller need to be at the same location, with line of sight to the same objective area, coordinating in real time.

The UH-1Y Insertion: Assault Support Into the Objective Area

Images 6 and 7 show UH-1Y aircraft 17 and 07 conducting assault support insertions at a rocky desert landing zone below the ridgeline. In Image 6, three Marines are moving away from aircraft 17 as it lifts off: the insertion complete, the aircraft transitioning to its escort or overwatching role while the ground element moves to its position. In Image 7, aircraft 07 is on the ground with three Marines approaching, the crew chief visible at the door.

These are not clean airfield landings. The UH-1Y is on unimproved rocky terrain at the base of a mountain, in a confined space between ridgelines, with rotor wash kicking up dust across the desert scrub. The pilots are flying to the ground element’s position rather than to a prepared landing zone. This is the realistic insertion geometry that AST-1 is designed to train: the aircraft goes where the mission requires, not where the infrastructure permits.

The Terminal Control Team: Three People, One Node

Image 8 is the analytical centerpiece of the ground element photographs. Three personnel are at a rocky ridgeline position: a Marine standing with a full radio kit, NVGs mounted on his helmet, speaking into a handset while scanning; a second Marine crouched and writing on a kneeboard, tracking the control sequence; and an Army soldier in OCP operating a separate radio at the right. A MAWTS-1 patch is visible on one of the Marines.

This is the terminal attack control node  which is the human interface between the aircraft in the air and the target on the ground. The standing Marine is the JTAC or FAC(A) in the ground role, controlling the aviation through the radio. The crouching Marine is tracking the control sequence, maintaining the log, and managing the data that feeds the debrief. The Army soldier’s presence reflects the joint integration that runs throughout this WTI series: the terminal control mission in a real contingency may involve Army, Air Force, or partner-force controllers working alongside Marine aviation.

Image 9 shows a single Marine at the ridgeline crest, seated with a notebook, a radio mast deployed beside him, looking out over the desert floor below. The view from his position encompasses the entire objective area — the mock city, the landing zones, the approach routes for the assault aircraft. This is the observer’s vantage point: elevated, unobstructed, with communications and the entire battlefield spread out below. The photograph captures the spatial relationship between the terminal controller and the fight in a way that no other image in the series does.

The UAS Threat Over the Range

Images 12 and 14 document the OPFOR UAS element in operation. Image 12 shows the contractor at OP4 operating an EO/IR spotting or UAS control device on a tripod — a Marine beside him checking a tablet — while the mock city target complex is visible across the desert below. Image 14 shows two Marines from behind, watching a fixed-wing aircraft, one of the contractor-operated threat UAS, flying at altitude over the range.

The two figures watching the UAS in Image 14 capture the essential tactical problem that AST-1 is training. The aircraft is small, fast-moving, and at altitude. It could be conducting ISR on the assault force, providing targeting data for a notional adversary fires system, or itself be a loitering munition. The assault aviation package, the UH-1Ys inserting the ground element, the heavy assault helicopters approaching the mock city, is operating in an airspace that includes this threat.

The integration of a realistic OPFOR UAS into AST-1 is what distinguishes this exercise from the assault support training of the previous generation. In past WTI iterations, the dominant threat to assault aviation was fixed-wing fighters, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-aircraft artillery. Those threats remain. But the UAS threat, small, cheap, numerous, increasingly capable, now shapes the planning, the routing, the timing, and the self-protection calculus of every assault support mission. AST-1 builds that threat into the exercise from the ground up.

The Mock City and the Large-Scale Assault

Images 11 and 15 show the objective area at scale. The Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range’s mock city complex is a substantial installation, dozens of building facades of varying heights across a wide front, designed to replicate the visual and tactical geometry of an urban objective. Image 11 shows a helicopter visible far left of the city complex with a dust cloud rising from the objective area — the assault has begun. Image 15 shows the full assault at its peak: multiple helicopters which is identifiable by their large rotor diameter and fuselage mass as CH-53 series aircraft landing near the city complex, raising a massive brown dust cloud that extends across the entire width of the frame.

The scale of Image 15 is the visual argument for why AST-1 matters as a training event. The mock city is in the right frame. The dust cloud from multiple heavy helicopter landings fills the center. The Chocolate Mountain range rises behind it all. The individual elements that have been documented throughout this photographic series, the UAS assembled at OP4, the terminal controllers on the ridge, the UH-1Ys at the rocky LZ, the observer with his radio mast, are all converging on this moment.

What AST-1 Integrates

The fifteen photographs from April 13 at Chocolate Mountain document an exercise that is qualitatively different from every other event in the WTI 2-26 photographic series. The earlier articles in the series — the matting and FARP practical applications, the UAS tactics exercise, the night HIMARS off-load, the UH-1Y rappelling and door gun day —focused on  a specific function or platform in relative isolation. AST-1 runs them all simultaneously.

The contractor UAS flying threat profiles over the range feeds the threat picture that the terminal controllers must account for. The UH-1Ys inserting the ground element must route to avoid the UAS threat while getting their passengers to the right position on time. The terminal control team must manage the aviation package against the objective while tracking the UAS overhead. The heavy assault helicopters must execute their approach and landing at the mock city in an airspace that is simultaneously contested and coordinated.

This is the kill web made kinetic: multiple nodes, sensors, assault aircraft, fire support, terminal controllers, threat simulators, working in a shared operational environment, each dependent on the others functioning correctly, the whole producing a combat outcome that none could generate alone.

The prospective WTI who planned and executed AST-1 at Chocolate Mountain on April 13, 2026, and then sat through the debrief that followed, carried something back to their squadron that could not be generated any other way: the experience of having run the integrated fight, with all of its friction, from the rocky climb to the observation point through the last helicopter lifting off the objective.

That is what WTI certifies. These photographs document why.

From Global Navy to Boutique Force: Britain’s Shrinking Fleet

06/29/2026

By Robbin Laird

The numbers tell a stark story.

In early 2026, the United Kingdom fields a Royal Navy whose surface combatant force has shrunk faster than its modernization programs can backfill, while Iran has assembled a numerically larger and, in some respects, more dynamically evolving regional fleet.

This is not a claim that Tehran has eclipsed London as a maritime power but it is a sobering measure of how far the Royal Navy’s mass has eroded relative to both its history and its stated ambitions.

At the end of the Cold War, the Royal Navy operated more than fifty destroyers and frigates. By early 2026, that figure has fallen to roughly thirteen to fifteen escorts on paper. As the year opened, UK Defence Journal reported that the RN was operating just seven frigates, highlighting “continued strain on the surface fleet” during the transition away from the aging Type 23s. Six Type 45 destroyers nominally round out the high-end surface force, producing a headline total of thirteen major surface escorts.

The reality behind those numbers is more fragile. A senior defence official acknowledged in 2025 that only six Type 23s were actually at readiness, with carrier strike deployments threatening to push that figure down to five. By March 2026, parliamentary scrutiny and media reporting suggested that, once refits and maintenance were accounted for, only a handful of frigates and a single destroyer were fully operational at any one time. The nation that once maintained robust squadrons across the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and global trade routes now sustains its posture on a skeletal escort force, constantly juggling hulls to cover the most politically salient tasks.

The “frigate gap” has become the central symbol of this contraction. The Type 23s are being retired faster than their replacements — the Type 26 anti-submarine frigates and Type 31 general-purpose frigates — can enter service, creating a trough in hull numbers through the late 2020s. Analysts who have traced these timelines conclude that the Royal Navy will hover around seven frigates for much of this period, with operational availability periodically dipping lower as individual ships enter major refits or are decommissioned.

Paradoxically, British designs proliferate abroad. Ex-Royal Navy Type 23s now serve in the Chilean and Brazilian fleets, among others, while the Babcock Arrowhead 140 derived from the same design lineage has been selected for export programs from Europe to Asia.

More British-designed frigates are now turning screws under foreign ensigns than under the White Ensign. T

he UK remains a competent naval architect and exporter, yet has allowed its own escort fleet to fall below the long-stated minimum of nineteen major surface combatants, even as it encourages allies to buy its wares.

This is not simply an aesthetic problem for those nostalgic about the fleet lists of earlier decades. It cuts to the heart of strategic credibility.

The Royal Navy can still assemble an impressive carrier strike group for showcase deployments, but doing so pulls scarce escorts from other missions and leaves little slack for concurrent crises or attrition. A navy that can surge a single elegant formation is not the same as a navy that can maintain continuous, overlapping presence across multiple regions.

Set against this contraction is the evolution of Iran’s naval forces. Prior to the 2026 U.S. campaign that destroyed several Iranian warships, open-source assessments credited the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy with ninety-seven active ships, including thirteen classified as major combatants, frigates, destroyers, and submarines, supported by corvettes, patrol craft, and amphibious and auxiliary vessels. That tally placed Iran around eighteenth globally in aggregate naval capability by some rankings, reflecting not high sophistication but numerical density in chosen categories.

Within that inventory were roughly seven frigates and six submarines, complemented by nine corvettes and large numbers of smaller combatants. Layered over this is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, whose fleets of fast attack craft, missile boats, and unmanned systems are tailored for swarm tactics and denial operations in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Iran has further experimented with “forward base ships” which are converted merchant hulls acting as drone carriers and support platforms enabling it to project influence into the Red Sea and conduct blue-water signaling deployments.

The strike campaign of May 2026, which reportedly sank nine Iranian warships including a Jamaran-class unit at Chabahar, has reduced this inventory.

Yet the underlying pattern remains: Iran’s naval development has emphasized low-cost, rapidly produced hulls and conversions, enabling a steady flow of platforms into the fleet despite sanctions and technological constraints.

Tehran has sought mass and persistence in narrow seas rather than exquisite capability at global range.

Juxtaposing these trajectories is uncomfortable but instructive. Iran fielded more frigates and a much larger total number of commissioned hulls than the Royal Navy, albeit concentrated in a confined regional theater and heavily reliant on coastal geography and land-based enablers. Its approach to naval innovation is incremental and opportunistic: small batches of new hulls, conversions of commercial vessels, and persistent experimentation with unmanned systems. The emphasis is on complicating an adversary’s calculus through numbers, dispersion, and persistence.

The Royal Navy, by contrast, pursues a model built around a small number of very high-end platforms acquired in long, politically fragile cycles. Each new class — the Astute SSNs, Dreadnought SSBNs, Type 26s and 31s, and the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers — is technologically sophisticated and expensive, with small class sizes magnifying the operational impact of any defect or manpower shortfall. The result is a fleet that is qualitatively impressive but structurally brittle.

The key insight is not that Britain should emulate Iran’s force design, but that the UK has not reconciled its global rhetoric with a realistic concept of affordable mass. London aspires to a permanent Indo-Pacific presence, renewed North Atlantic focus, and ongoing Middle Eastern engagement, all while operating with escort numbers that barely suffice for peacetime tasking and allow little margin for contingencies, let alone war losses. Iran, focused on its immediate environs, built sufficient numbers to sustain harassment, coercion, and opportunistic escalation against regional shipping and Western presence.

The planned trajectory of the Royal Navy’s future offers a path out of the trough, at least on paper. If Type 26 and Type 31 deliveries arrive on schedule and hulls are not prematurely withdrawn for savings, the escort fleet could climb back into the high teens by the mid-2030s. Coupled with nuclear attack submarines, SSBN replacement, and carrier aviation, this would preserve the core of Britain’s high-end naval capabilities.

But waiting for the 2030s is itself a strategic choice.

The current decade is one of accelerating maritime competition, from the North Atlantic and High North to the Red Sea and Western Pacific. In that context, a Royal Navy with only a handful of ready escorts and with more British-designed frigates turning circles under allied flags than in its own sends a clear signal about the tradeoffs being made in London’s defence policy.

The question is whether the United Kingdom will continue to accept a boutique fleet — world-class in niche capabilities but thin in hull numbers — or whether it will take the politically harder route of reprioritizing naval mass, experimenting with cheaper auxiliary combatants and unmanned systems, and aligning global commitments with actual capacity.

The comparison with Iran should not be read as an argument that Britain has fallen behind a regional adversary. It is, rather, a stark reminder that maritime power is ultimately about what is available, deployable, and sustainable today, not what is promised for tomorrow.