Fueling the Forward Edge: The FARP Practical Application at WTI 2-26

06/16/2026

Three days after Marines with Marine Wing Support Squadron 373 laid AM-2 aluminum matting at Auxiliary Airfield II near Yuma, Arizona, a new team returned to the same site to build the next layer of the expeditionary airfield.

On March 17, 2026, personnel conducting the Forward Arming and Refueling Point practical application as part of Weapons and Tactics Instructor Course 2-26 set up a field fuel system on the surface their predecessors had constructed. The sequence is deliberate: WTI builds the expeditionary airfield from the ground up, one functional layer at a time.

A Forward Arming and Refueling Point is one of the most operationally critical capabilities in Marine aviation. It is the mechanism by which aircraft operating at extended range can be refueled and re-armed without returning to a main operating base, dramatically extending both sortie duration and the geographic reach of the aviation combat element.

In a distributed operations environment, the operational context the Marine Corps is designing for across the Indo-Pacific, the FARP is not a convenience. It is what makes sustained aviation presence at dispersed forward sites possible at all.

Measuring Before Fueling: The Surveyor’s Wheel

The evolution begins before any fuel line is laid. One image shows two Marines walking the runway surface at Auxiliary Airfield II with a surveyor’s measuring wheel, a simple but essential tool for establishing the precise standoff distances that govern FARP layout. The positioning of fuel points, hose runs, pump units, and aircraft parking spots relative to each other and to the runway edge is not arbitrary. It is specified by safety standards that account for fire hazard, rotor wash from incoming aircraft, and the clearances required for simultaneous multi-aircraft operations.

The image of two Marines walking an otherwise empty desert runway with a measuring wheel captures something that is easy to overlook in the more dramatic photographs that follow: the FARP begins with a plan, and the plan has to be accurate. A WTI student who has personally walked a runway measuring fuel point positions understands in a visceral way why those measurements matter when the first MV-22B comes in hot and low and needs to be turned around in minimum time.

The Equipment: Bladder, Pump, and Hose

An image shows the FARP equipment being organized from a truck bed and ground layout: coiled fuel hoses, a portable pump unit, a collapsible fuel bladder in yellow fabric, and a Hatz diesel generator providing power to the pump. This is the core of a lightweight expeditionary fuel point, everything needed to move fuel from a storage bladder through a pump to an aircraft refueling nozzle, transportable in a small tactical logistics package and operable by a small team without fixed infrastructure.

An Image shows Marine “Carter” inside the collapsed fuel bladder, connecting the inlet fitting at the base of the tank while an Air Force soldier in OCP holds the fuel hose in position. The collapsible fuel bladder, a fabric-walled tank that expands as it fills — is the storage node of the expeditionary fuel system. Its value is portability: it can be transported folded flat, positioned wherever the site survey dictates, filled from an external fuel source, and connected to the pump system that will push fuel to the aircraft. The work of connecting the inlet fitting is close, precise, and cannot be rushed, a fuel fitting improperly seated is a fuel leak, and a fuel leak at a FARP with aircraft running is a serious hazard.

One iImage closes in on the pump valve connection: two sets of gloved hands securing a brass ball valve and hose coupling at the Hatz diesel pump unit, the “DANGER — HEARING PROTECTION REQUIRED WITHIN 15 FEET” placard visible on the pump frame. The precision of this image reinforces the same point as the safety wire close-up from the matting evolution three days earlier: at a FARP, as on the mat surface, every connection either meets standard or it does not. There is no middle state.

The Air Force Civil Engineer: 49th CES at Auxiliary Airfield II

The most analytically significant detail in this set of photographs is who is rolling the fuel line. U.S. Air Force 1st Lt. Peter Lake is identified in the DVIDS caption as a Civil Engineer with the 49th Civil Engineer Squadron, based at Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico. He appears in multiple images throughout the evolution, working directly alongside Marines on both the fuel bladder connection and the hose lay.

The 49th Civil Engineer Squadron is the expeditionary engineering unit supporting the 49th Wing at Holloman — an F-16 and F-22 wing whose civil engineers are trained in exactly the kind of expeditionary airfield construction and fuel system operations being practiced at Auxiliary Airfield II. Lake’s presence at WTI 2-26 is consistent with the Air Force’s ongoing integration into Marine Corps aviation training, and with the operational reality that in a major contingency in the Pacific, Air Force civil engineering assets and Marine Wing Support Squadron capabilities would have to work together to establish and sustain distributed forward sites.

The image of an Air Force civil engineer rolling a fuel line across AM-2 matting at a Marine-hosted WTI evolution is not a symbolic gesture of jointness. It is evidence that the two services are training together to a shared standard for the same operational requirement: the ability to fuel aircraft at austere forward sites without fixed infrastructure, under time pressure, with a small mixed team.

The FARP in the Distributed Operations Context

The operational significance of the FARP is most clearly understood against the backdrop of the Marine Corps’ Indo-Pacific operational design. The concept requires Marine forces to operate from a network of dispersed island and coastal sites, sites that cannot support fixed fuel infrastructure, that may be under threat, and that need to be established and dismantled rapidly as the operational situation evolves.

In this context, the FARP capability is what links the aviation combat element to its forward operating sites. An MV-22B tasked with a long-range insertion or a CH-53K moving equipment to a dispersed position needs fuel at range. The FARP team — a small number of personnel with a bladder, a pump, and hose — is what makes that refueling possible without the aircraft returning to the main base. Every sortie that can be turned at a forward FARP rather than returning to base extends the operational reach of the aviation element and reduces the signature and predictability of the operation.

The WTI student who connected a fuel inlet fitting inside a collapsed bladder in the Arizona desert, and who walked a runway measuring fuel point positions in the early morning light, will plan FARP operations with a precision and confidence that no classroom instruction alone can produce. That is the point of the practical application. That is the point of WTI.

The Sequence at Auxiliary Airfield II

Taken together, the matting evolution on March 14 and the FARP practical application on March 17 at Auxiliary Airfield II tell a coherent story about how WTI builds the expeditionary airfield concept into its prospective instructors. The surface comes first: the AM-2 matting provides the hardened, anchored platform that aircraft can operate from. The fuel system comes next: the bladder, pump, and hose lay that will sustain those aircraft through multiple sorties without a return to base.

Each evolution is joint. The Army first lieutenant was on his knees at the matting edge on March 14. The Air Force civil engineer was rolling fuel line on March 17. The Marine Wing Support Squadron personnel were present and working in both. This is not coincidental. The expeditionary airfield that the Marine Corps needs to establish in the Pacific will require exactly this kind of integrated, multi-service team working to a common standard under time pressure at an austere site.

WTI 2-26 practiced that team formation at Auxiliary Airfield II in the first week of March 2026. The photographs document it, one measuring wheel, one bladder fitting, and one rolled fuel line at a time.

WTI Events: The Engine of Marine Aviation Transformation at MAWTS-1

The Coast Guard’s Away Game: Authority, Reach, and the Persistence of Under-Resourcing

By Robbin Laird

I came to the Coast Guard through an unusual door. In the late 1990s I was working with a maritime security company focused on port vulnerabilities, and the observation that shaped everything that followed was straightforward: bad actors could reach into the commercial technology market far more quickly than the Coast Guard could navigate its own acquisition processes. That asymmetry has never fully closed.

It runs like a thread through all the work I subsequently did with Admiral Ed Gilbert and the dozens of officers, commanders, and operators we interviewed from 2002 through 2016 and beyond — work that became the foundation of my new book, Always Ready, Persistently Under-Resourced: The Modern United States Coast Guard Story.

The book is primarily a work of contemporary history. It covers the period from roughly 2002 to 2016 in depth, bringing the story forward through recent developments in the NSC program, C4ISR modernization, and Force Design 2028. But the history is not merely backward-looking. The patterns I documented then remain stubbornly present today: expanding missions, constrained resources, persistent redirection by successive administrations, and an organization that compensates through professionalism what it cannot compensate through adequacy of means.

The story of what the Coast Guard became in the first two decades of this century is also, uncomfortably, the story of where it still finds itself.

What I want to do here is draw out one of the book’s central arguments that the Coast Guard is above all an away game force and connect it to the historical evidence that makes that argument more than rhetorical. The service’s name invites misreading. The word “coast” suggests proximity, a tethering to shoreline and harbor. The operational reality, as I found in conversations with Atlantic Area Commander Vice Admiral Parker, Pacific Area Commander Vice Admiral Brown, Commandant Thad Allen, and many others, is the opposite.

The Coast Guard operates across half the world. It is in the Arabian Gulf, off the coast of Africa, in the Eastern Pacific, throughout the Caribbean, in the Bering Sea, and increasingly in the waters of the Indo-Pacific. It arrives first and it stays. That is its fundamental character, and it is a character that budget debates and departmental politics have repeatedly failed to honor.

The analytical framework I have used for years to describe the environment the Coast Guard inhabits is the distinction between crisis management and chaos management. Crisis management assumes discrete, resolvable events — a hurricane, a drug seizure, a maritime accident. You respond, you restore, you return to equilibrium. That was the dominant conception of what the Coast Guard did for most of its history, and it was never entirely wrong. But it became increasingly insufficient as a guide to the strategic situation.

Chaos management acknowledges something different: that the threats confronting a maritime security service in the twenty-first century are not discrete and resolvable but persistent and overlapping. Drug trafficking networks are not crises to be solved; they are permanent features of the operational environment. Gray zone competition in the Western Pacific is not an event; it is a condition. Mass migration pressures, illegal fishing by foreign fleets, the opening of Arctic sea routes, the proliferation of semi-submersible drug carriers, the vulnerability of the global maritime trade system to supply chain disruption — none of these are emergencies that a well-organized response can put behind us. They require persistent presence, adaptable authorities, and genuine operational reach. They require, in other words, exactly what the Coast Guard provides, if adequately resourced.

September 11th accelerated this recognition in my own thinking. I was at the Pentagon that morning. I had arrived for a meeting about post-Soviet nuclear security matters and watched the world change. The shift that followed was not merely about terrorism; it was about the fundamental inadequacy of frameworks built around manageable crises. The Coast Guard was not designed to fight al-Qaeda.

But the Coast Guard was extraordinarily well-positioned for the world that emerged: a world of transnational threats that cross maritime borders, exploit commercial infrastructure, and evade the jurisdictional reach of any single agency or military branch acting alone.

What the book documents at length, through interviews with commandants and area commanders and district officers and sector commanders, is that the Coast Guard’s operational reach is inseparable from its legal architecture. When Admiral Zukunft described the service’s situation to me in November 2016, he was emphatic on this point: the Coast Guard is the only entity with the authorities to actually do anything about the security threats it prosecutes at sea. It is not merely present; it can act. It can board. It can seize. It can prosecute. This is Title 14 authority — the law enforcement side of the Coast Guard’s dual character — and it operates in spaces where a gray-fleet Navy destroyer would create diplomatic complications that no operational gain could justify.

The Ship Rider program is the clearest practical expression of this architecture. By embarking law enforcement officers from partner nations — six nations in the Pacific alone — the Coast Guard can enforce fisheries law, interdict drug trafficking, and conduct security operations deep in foreign Exclusive Economic Zones without the political friction that naval intervention would generate. Zukunft described an offensive border security strategy rather than a goal-line defense: meet threats on the open playing field, far from U.S. shores, at the point of origin or in transit, rather than waiting for them to arrive at port.

This was not merely rhetoric. By 2016 the Coast Guard had bilateral agreements worldwide that allowed it to intercept vessels at sea rather than wait for anomalies in cargo manifests to alert it at the dock. Zukunft put it plainly: you do not have to wait until a container ship arrives with a declared discrepancy. You can intercept at sea and conduct a security check. The geographic extension of U.S. legal authority — not military power but law enforcement authority — represents a strategic asset that Washington has consistently undervalued.

I should note what was already visible in 2016 and has become more pressing since: the drift toward a Department of War framing in American defense policy risks marginalizing precisely this kind of authority. When deterrence is conceived entirely in kinetic terms, the Coast Guard’s distinctive contribution, persistent presence, law enforcement reach, the ability to operate in the gray space between war and peace, becomes difficult to articulate in budget debates dominated by warfighting requirements. That is a strategic error.

The National Security Cutter is the away game’s principal instrument. I spent considerable time aboard the Bertholf and Waesche in 2010 and 2011, and the conversations with commanding officers, executive officers, and Admiral Currier that emerged from those visits form a substantial portion of the book’s treatment of the NSC program. What struck me then and what the subsequent decade confirmed was that the NSC was not merely a better cutter. It was a qualitatively different kind of ship.

Captain Lance Bardo described the NSC as a chaos management system, and I think that phrase captures its operational essence more precisely than any technical specification. The ship is a floating command post: it can track more than fifty aircraft at ranges exceeding two hundred miles, deploy three over-the-horizon small boats, sustain flight operations in sea states that would ground legacy cutters, process classified intelligence through its SCIF, and maintain a 360-degree C4ISR bubble that gives the commanding officer genuine domain awareness across air, surface, and subsurface dimensions. It can sprint at thirty knots when urgency demands, then loiter economically for ninety-day patrols without compromising fuel reserves. It can arrive in a disaster zone where all shore-based communications have collapsed and immediately become the command node for a unified response.

Vice Admiral Parker made the most vivid case for this capability when we discussed the Haiti response. When the earthquake struck in January 2010, the Coast Guard was first on scene precisely because it maintained persistent presence in Caribbean waters conducting routine anti-drug and law enforcement operations. But Parker was candid about the limits: the service could arrive, but it could not sustain command architecture in those critical first days. The radio communications were gone. The cell towers were gone. There was a cell phone with an aide to the deputy commander that lasted about thirty-six hours and then went dark. Had an NSC been present, Parker told me, the Coast Guard could have controlled the airspace, provided C4ISR for all the elements coming ashore, and managed the information environment that determines who gets help first. Distance is a weapon in the Pacific and a vulnerability in disaster response; the NSC addresses both.

The NSC program’s acquisition history is a case study in what the book documents repeatedly: the Coast Guard can achieve genuine operational excellence when given adequate resources and institutional stability, and it reliably loses ground when funding is disrupted. Admiral Currier’s 2011 congressional testimony described a program that had achieved cost stability and predictable production rhythms after the chaos of the early Deepwater years. Hull four was contracted at a fixed price. Hull five was coming in at nearly identical cost. The program was demonstrating what disciplined acquisition looks like. Currier’s warning about what funding instability would do to that stability proved entirely accurate. The tenth hull delivered; the eleventh was scrapped over a contract dispute. The program ended with ten ships rather than the eight originally planned or the eleven eventually funded, and the production line with its trained workforce, supplier relationships, and institutional knowledge was closed.

The denouement of the NSC program contains a particular irony that the book documents at length: the Navy, having spent two decades pursuing the Littoral Combat Ship and then the Constellation-class frigate with results ranging from disappointing to disastrous, has effectively come home to an NSC-derived design for its FF(X) frigate requirement. The hull that the Coast Guard built — with proven endurance, aviation facilities, and command architecture — is now recognized as the baseline for what the Navy needs. Essington Lewis, the Australian industrialist who spent years warning his country before World War II that time is more important than money in defense preparedness, understood what the Navy’s frigate saga illustrates: time lost cannot be recovered. The production line that could have provided both services with a common, proven design has been closed.

Restarting it will cost more and take longer than continuing it would have.

The book draws heavily on interviews with both the Atlantic and Pacific Area commanders from 2011 — Vice Admiral Parker and Vice Admiral Brown respectively — and the contrast between the two theaters illuminates the range of strategic problems the Coast Guard manages simultaneously.

Brown’s central point about the Pacific was one that Washington has been slow to internalize: 85 percent of U.S. exclusive economic zones are in the Pacific, most of them in the Central and Western Pacific. The fishing economies of twenty-two Oceania nations depend on a multi-billion dollar tuna fishery that is systematically threatened by illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing operations, many of them linked to foreign state actors. Brown was direct about the consequences of absence: if the Coast Guard is not physically present, someone else will be. The Chinese had already built large infrastructure in Tonga when Brown visited. The signal of American disengagement, communicated through the absence of cutters in a region that can only be covered by assets with genuine endurance, is read clearly by regional actors.

Brown’s second major point was about the tyranny of distance. Reaching American Samoa from Alameda requires more than ten days of transit. When you arrive, you carry everything you need with you because the infrastructure is not there. Piers, fuel, engineering support, food, the Pacific deployment demands a self-sufficient platform, which is precisely what the NSC provides and what the medium endurance cutters that constitute much of the Pacific fleet cannot. The program of record consistently fell short of what Pacific operations required. The Obama pivot to Asia was articulated as a strategic priority; it was never translated into the fleet expansion that would have given it operational content.

The Arctic presents a different version of the same problem. Brown described it as predictable surprises, a phrase that captures the specific quality of the Coast Guard’s Arctic dilemma. The ice is retreating. The shipping routes are opening. Human activity in the region is increasing. A cruise ship carrying a thousand passengers in the Bering Sea is not a hypothetical scenario; it is an operational planning requirement. And the Coast Guard’s actual icebreaking capacity — three ships nominally, one of them effectively non-operational at the time of Brown’s interview — was grotesquely inadequate to the sovereignty and safety responsibilities the United States has in those waters.

Russia operates more than forty icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels capable of year-round Arctic operations. China was building one at the time of our interviews and has since expanded its polar fleet while declaring itself a near-Arctic state. The United States, with its treaty obligations, its sovereign territory in Alaska, and its responsibility for search and rescue across Arctic waters, has been playing catch-up for decades. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 represented the largest single infusion of resources in the Coast Guard’s history — nearly twenty-five billion dollars, with roughly nine billion directed specifically at icebreaking recapitalization. Whether this represents a genuine reorientation of national priorities or another episode of funding that arrives too late and is not sustained long enough to close the capability gap remains to be seen.

One of the chapters I am most satisfied with in the book deals with the North Pacific Coast Guard Forum, which I think represents one of the Coast Guard’s least understood strategic assets. The Forum brings together the coast guard services of six Pacific nations — the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Canada — in a cooperative framework built around shared operational problems rather than aligned strategic interests.

Rear Admiral Bob Day walked me through its architecture and history in December 2010. The key to the Forum’s durability and it has now completed twenty-five years of operation, surviving COVID, the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, and Russia’s isolation following Ukraine is its relentless focus on operational necessity rather than strategic alignment. Illegal fishing vessels do not respect geopolitical rivalries. A major oil spill in the Bering Sea requires coordinated response regardless of what is happening in Taiwan Strait diplomacy. The Forum provides the communication channels, the combined operations manual, the information exchange systems, and the personal relationships that allow coast guard services to function together even when their governments are not aligned.

Day made a point that I have returned to many times in subsequent years: the Coast Guard has better access to China than almost any other U.S. government agency, precisely because it is perceived as a law enforcement and environmental organization rather than a military force. That access is a strategic asset. It is the kind of relationship that enables communication when other channels close, that builds the habits of operational coordination that matter when crises occur, and that keeps open practical cooperation on fisheries, search and rescue, and marine environmental protection even when the broader relationship is under strain.

The Forum’s 2025 resumption — full in-person meetings in Nanjing in April and Shanghai in September, the first such gatherings since 2019 — is an important data point. Operational pragmatism endures even in contested waters. The Coast Guard’s ability to maintain those channels is not incidental to American maritime strategy; it is one of its more valuable instruments.

The period covered in depth by the book — 2002 to 2016 — represented a fundamental transition in the Coast Guard’s character. The Deepwater program, whatever its execution problems, introduced a multi-domain acquisition logic that was genuinely innovative and that anticipated the systems-of-systems thinking that has since become standard in defense planning. The National Security Cutter program, after the reforms driven by Admiral Currier following the 2007 acquisition crisis, demonstrated that the Coast Guard could execute complex procurement when given the organizational capability and the institutional stability to do so. The C4ISR modernization effort transformed the service from one that found drug shipments by luck to one that can be directed to a specific vessel at a specific coordinate in real time.

But the structural problem identified in every interview I conducted — with commandants, area commanders, district commanders, sector commanders, and the officers who actually take the ships to sea — remained unchanged throughout this period and persists today. The Coast Guard’s mission set grows by accretion. Each administration brings new priorities and redirects the service’s emphasis, but without commensurate increases in resources. The result is a force that is always ready in the sense that its people will find a way to accomplish the mission, but persistently under-resourced in the sense that accomplishing that mission increasingly depends on institutional resilience rather than adequate capability.

Force Design 2028 represents the most systematic attempt since Deepwater to align the Coast Guard’s structure, technology, and resources with what its actual strategic role requires. The resources attached to it nearly twenty-five billion dollars from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act alone are historically unprecedented. Whether the organizational reforms, the acquisitions, and the workforce growth produce a genuinely transformed service, or whether this proves to be another wave of investment that crests and recedes without closing the fundamental capability gap, is the question the next decade will answer.

The history I have documented suggests the conditions for success: stable, predictable funding sustained over multiple years and multiple administrations; acquisition management that empowers program managers and integrates logistics from the outset; strategic clarity about what the white fleet is expected to do in an era of gray zone competition; and an honest reckoning with the infrastructure deficit that platform discussions have consistently overshadowed.

The Coast Guard that Ed Gilbert helped me understand is an organization of remarkable professional quality operating under conditions that no comparably important national security instrument should face. Its people compensate through competence and commitment for what its budget fails to provide. That is admirable; it is also unsustainable indefinitely. The Hatteras rescue in January 2010 — reconstructed in detail in the book through interviews with Lieutenant Commander Lacer Driver and Petty Officer Lee — illustrates both sides of this reality. The HC-130J and its integrated C4ISR systems made that rescue possible; the old HC-130H could not have done it. But the Coast Guard had to fight for years to replace the aging fleet, and even then received fewer aircraft than it needed. Success required that particular crew, in that particular aircraft, on that particular night, with equipment that worked. National security cannot be built on cases where everything happened to go right.

That is the central lesson of the history I have tried to document: the Coast Guard’s story is not primarily a story about budgets and platforms.

It is a story about the gap between what the nation asks of its maritime security service and what it is willing to provide.

Closing that gap is not a budgetary option. In an era of gray zone competition, contested Arctic waters, transnational criminal networks, and a maritime trade system that carries ninety-five percent of American international commerce, it is a national security requirement.

Revitalizing America’s Maritime Logistics: The Noncombat Fleet and the Foundations of Naval Power

06/15/2026

By Robbin Laird

The Trump administration’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal has placed noncombat shipbuilding at the center of America’s defense investment debate for the first time in a generation. A 46 percent increase in shipbuilding funding, reaching $65.8 billion, represents the most ambitious peacetime commitment to the logistics fleet in decades. That figure matters not simply as a budget line, but as a recognition that the infrastructure of sustained naval power has been quietly decaying while the United States focused its procurement energy on frontline warfighters.

What the proposal says about the changing conception of military power is more significant than the vessel count itself. The budget affirms what operational analysts have argued for years: that cargo ships, oilers, hospital ships, landing craft, and auxiliaries are not peripheral assets supporting the real Navy. They are the operational foundation without which sustained combat power overseas is impossible.

The breadth of the request reinforces this point. Agencies from the Navy to the National Science Foundation are seeking funds for noncombat vessels—cargo ships, vehicle carriers, cutters, a research vessel, and a ferry for the National Park Service. That distribution reflects a whole-of-government conception of maritime capacity, one that links defense logistics, scientific access, domestic infrastructure, and forward presence. The Navy’s own request is especially notable: 18 combat vessels and 16 noncombat ships, including firefighting boats, a hospital ship, and specialized vessels to carry fuel, vehicles, equipment, and supplies.

Maritime strategists have warned for years that systematic underinvestment in the logistics fleet has created a strategic liability. The average age of vessels in the Navy’s Military Sealift Command now stands at roughly forty years. That is not a technical footnote. It is a readiness problem with direct operational consequences. Aging logistics ships carry higher maintenance burdens, lower availability rates, and greater risk of mechanical failure precisely when they would be needed most.

In practice, this means that even a Navy equipped with advanced destroyers, submarines, and carrier aviation can be constrained by its inability to move fuel, ammunition, vehicles, and replacement equipment across extended distances. Hunter Stires’s observation cuts to the institutional core of the problem: the Navy has long preferred what he calls “pointy-nosed things” — combatants and submarines — while undervaluing the oilers, auxiliaries, and tenders that make sustained operations possible. Combat platforms attract political attention and bureaucratic energy. Logistics vessels do not. Yet in any major conflict, particularly in the Pacific, it would be logistics, not firepower alone, that determines both operational pace and campaign endurance.

The concern extends beyond age to declining capacity and readiness across the entire sealift enterprise. Military Sealift Command supports naval and joint operations through replenishment, strategic sealift, special mission support, and prepositioning functions, roles that are indispensable in any campaign requiring sustained power projection across oceanic distances. Recent strategic analysis has made clear that U.S. sealift capacity is in dangerous decline, with deteriorating ship condition, shrinking mariner availability, and a recapitalization challenge that has outpaced replacement efforts.

The Indo-Pacific sharpens the problem considerably. Distances are longer, resupply burdens are heavier, and any conflict involving Taiwan or the wider Western Pacific would impose extreme strain on fuel distribution, ammunition delivery, and vehicle transport. A force designed around distributed and mobile operations cannot function effectively without a robust logistics architecture behind it. The mismatch between the combat force’s operational concept and the logistics fleet’s actual capacity is not a theoretical problem. It is a structural vulnerability.

The push for noncombat procurement also reflects the scale of the Chinese maritime challenge at the industrial level. In 2024, a single state-controlled Chinese shipbuilder, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, produced more commercial tonnage than the United States has built since the end of World War II. China’s total shipbuilding capacity is estimated to be roughly 232 times greater than that of the United States, a disparity that is not simply a commercial data point. It reflects a strategic asymmetry in industrial base depth.

China benefits from dual-use shipyards that support both commercial and military production, allowing commercial strength to reinforce naval expansion directly. A country that cannot build enough auxiliaries, tankers, cargo ships, and support vessels cannot sustain maritime operations at scale over time. The challenge facing the United States is therefore both operational and industrial: rebuilding the sealift fleet while simultaneously rebuilding the yards capable of producing it.

Jerry Hendrix, who leads the Office of Management and Budget’s shipbuilding office, described the purpose of the budget request in terms that deserve close attention: sending a demand signal to U.S. shipyards so they will modernize and expand. That framing shifts the discussion from procurement to industrial policy.

Shipyards do not invest in infrastructure, automation, and workforce expansion without confidence in sustained demand. Sporadic orders create uncertainty and discourage the capital spending required to compete at scale. A broad procurement signal, by contrast, can encourage supplier investment, labor force development, and technological upgrading. This matters in a sector where the United States now holds only a negligible share of global commercial shipbuilding output. Industry analysis in early 2026 argued that the Navy’s ambitions will exceed current yard capacity unless the industrial base catches up, a judgment that suggests the noncombat fleet initiative must be understood not only as fleet recapitalization but as a test of whether American maritime manufacturing can be rebuilt at the scale required.

Hanwha’s investment in the former Philly Shipyard illustrates what a credible demand signal can do. Major plans to expand U.S. shipbuilding capability as part of a wider effort to compete with China offer a model for the kind of transformation required. Whether that transformation scales nationally will depend on order continuity, policy consistency, and the development of a larger skilled workforce.

One of the strategically important features of this budget request is its distribution across government functions. The Coast Guard’s request for inland waterway vessels, the Army’s request for two landing craft, and the National Science Foundation’s request for a research vessel all make the same underlying point: maritime capability is not confined to the battle fleet, and its erosion is not confined to the Navy.

Research ships, cutters, transport vessels, and ferries may appear disconnected from the competitive dynamics of great power rivalry, but together they sustain national presence, sovereign access, domestic maritime competence, and surge capacity. The Transportation Department’s Maritime Administration also requested $168 million to more than double funding for a program providing stipends to companies operating U.S.-flagged tankers in exchange for making those vessels available in wartime or national emergencies—a direct reminder that commercial shipping, civil maritime policy, and defense mobilization remain tightly intertwined in practice.

The proposal’s strategic logic is compelling, but the political and budgetary obstacles are real. Former Biden administration official William Henagan argued that Congress is unlikely to approve a dramatic increase of this magnitude in maritime spending, even while acknowledging that the proposal sends an important signal to industry. That assessment is plausible. A 46 percent increase in shipbuilding funding is difficult to sustain under any fiscal climate, particularly when legislators must balance maritime investment against competing defense and domestic priorities.

That said, maritime investment carries distinct political advantages: it creates visible industrial work, supports skilled employment in shipbuilding communities, and now sits within a genuine bipartisan consensus that the China challenge has exposed unacceptable weaknesses in U.S. shipbuilding and sealift capacity. The key question is not whether every line item survives intact, but whether Congress preserves the strategic direction. Even a scaled version of the request could represent a genuine turning point if it produces sustained auxiliary procurement over multiple budget cycles, something the logistics fleet has not seen in decades.

The deeper lesson is one that defense analysts have articulated for some time but that budget politics has consistently resisted: naval power is a system, not a collection of combat platforms. Aircraft carriers, destroyers, submarines, and naval aviation remain central to deterrence and warfighting, but they are only effective when sustained by a logistics architecture that can fuel, rearm, repair, transport, and medically support the force across the distances and durations that actual conflict demands.

In a high-end conflict against a peer competitor, attrition, distance, and the constant requirement for resupply would quickly expose a brittle logistics system for what it is: a strategic ceiling on operational ambition. A recapitalized noncombat fleet would increase operational endurance, improve surge capacity, and strengthen deterrence by making U.S. force projection more credible to both adversaries and allies. The challenge of extended-range operations in the Indo-Pacific makes this not an abstract concern but an immediate planning problem.

The Trump administration’s budget request for noncombat vessels addresses one of the most neglected dimensions of American military power. It ties fleet recapitalization to industrial revival, links logistics investment to deterrence effectiveness, and recognizes that maritime competition with China will not be decided solely by frontline warships but by the capacity to sustain force at distance over time.

Whether Congress fully supports the request or scales it back, the strategic problem does not resolve itself by postponement. The United States can no longer treat logistics and sealift as secondary matters awaiting the right budget window. They are the quiet backbone of American naval power, and rebuilding them is now a central, not peripheral task of national strategy.

Building new ships for the MSC is definitely called for, but the future is the hybrid fleet, and there are several ways the MSC could leverage maritime autonomous systems to extend its operational reach and reduce risk to crewed vessels. The Navy’s Force Design 2045 envisions 350 crewed ships and 150 large uncrewed maritime vessels for the “Navy-After-Next,” a concept that applies not only to combatants but to the logistics architecture that sustains them.

MSC could integrate medium and large unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into its operational fleet to perform high-risk logistics missions, extend sensor coverage in contested waters, and provide modular transport capacity in environments where traditional auxiliaries may be vulnerable to adversary targeting. The strategic logic is compelling: autonomous systems allow the logistics fleet to disperse more widely, operate persistently in denied areas, and maintain resupply lines without exposing large crews to direct threat.

One particularly promising candidate is MARTAC’s T82 Leviathan, capable of carrying 35,000 pounds of cargo or hosting smaller USVs as a mother ship platform. The T82 represents a transformational logistics capability that MSC could operationalize for distributed fleet support, particularly in Indo-Pacific scenarios where distances are extreme and resupply infrastructure is limited. Its design incorporates MARTAC’s proven open-architecture autonomy framework, supporting modular payloads for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, maritime domain awareness, and cargo transport in degraded or denied communications environments. The platform’s substantial payload capacity and ability to operate autonomously for extended periods makes it well-suited for the kind of persistent logistics missions that will be essential in any contested maritime environment where traditional crewed auxiliaries face heightened risk.

The integration of commercial-off-the-shelf autonomous systems into MSC operations would not require lengthy acquisition cycles but could instead be fielded rapidly through existing commercial pathways and operational experimentation.

This approach aligns with the demand signal the budget request is sending to American shipyards: maritime capacity must be scaled, diversified, and technologically updated to meet the operational concepts the Navy is already pursuing.

A hybrid MSC fleet, combining traditional auxiliaries with unmanned logistics platforms—would increase operational flexibility, reduce manning requirements at a time when mariner availability is already constrained, and provide the distributed logistics architecture necessary to sustain a dispersed combat force operating under contested conditions.

The recapitalization of the noncombat fleet is not simply about replacing aging hulls.

It is about designing a logistics system capable of operating in the strategic environment the United States now confronts.

Note: The Second Line of Defense team has frequently visited the MSC over the years and highlighted their contribution and their role and several articles can be found on this website focused on MSC.

Bibliography

Primary Sources and News Reporting

Gordon, Michael R., and Doug Cameron. “Trump Budget Seeks Record Boost in Shipbuilding, Including Noncombat Ships.” Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2026.

Military Sealift Command. MSC Handbook 2025. Washington, DC: United States Navy, 2025.

Strategic and Policy Analysis

Hendrix, Jerry. “America’s Shipbuilding Crisis and the Path to Recovery.” Center for a New American Security, 2025.

Stires, Hunter. “The Navy’s Logistics Blindspot.” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute 151, no. 3 (2025).

Cropsey, Seth, and Timothy A. Walton. “Sealift in Decline: Recapitalizing America’s Strategic Surge Fleet.” Hudson Institute, 2024.

Auslin, Michael. “Surge Sealift and the Pacific Gap: Recapitalizing America’s Strategic Transport Capacity.” American Enterprise Institute, 2025.

Industrial Base and Shipbuilding Capacity

Congressional Research Service. “U.S. Naval Shipbuilding: Background and Issues for Congress.” CRS Report RL32665. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2025.

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “China’s Shipbuilding Industry and the Maritime Balance.” Staff Research Report. Washington, DC, 2024.

Hanwha Ocean. “Hanwha Investment in U.S. Shipbuilding: Philadelphia Expansion Plans.” Corporate Press Release, November 2025.

Transportation Institute. “America’s Merchant Marine: Commercial Shipping, Strategic Sealift, and National Policy.” Washington, DC: Transportation Institute, 2025.

 

WTI 2-26: CH-53K Long Range Raid

U.S. Marine Corps CH-53K King Stallions assigned to Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One (MAWTS-1), conduct an air-to-air refueling during a CH-53 long range raid exercise as part of Weapons and Tactics Instructor course 2-26, near Yuma, Arizona, April 10, 2026.

WTI is a seven-week training event hosted by MAWTS-1 which emphasizes operational integration of the seven functions of Marine aviation in support of the Marine Air Ground Task Force, Joint and Coalition Forces.

YUMA, ARIZONA

04.10.2026

Photo by Lance Cpl. Alexander Mantai 

Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron-1

From Noise to Knowledge: How Lysk’s AI-Powered Lore Turns Combat Radio into Actionable Data

06/14/2026

By Pierre Tran

Paris – Lysk, a European start-up company, plans to bring Lore, its AI-backed software package, to the European military market this summer, offering officers a secure means to transcribe radio calls into written reports when working out in the field, two co-founders said June 2.

The Lore program, supported by artificial intelligence, will be presented to armed forces at the Eurosatory trade show, said Henry Heinemann and Florent Ogès, two of the three company founders. The two founding partners spoke to reporters in their smart new offices in the centre of the French capital, while the third partner, Marek Majkowski, was working at the Warsaw office. Freshly made coffee was served up in mugs bearing the Lysk company name.

The software is developed to help officers deliver accurate written reports to the command chain, while working in tough operational conditions and cut off from commercial internet networks.

Ukraine is seen as a potential market, with talks under way for development of the Lore program.

The software product grew out of Ogès’s experience as an officer in the French GIGN anti-terrorist tactical unit of the Gendarmerie Nationale, when deployed to Sudan. It was a struggle to work in the field with three radios open, with one of the radio channels on a headset, with intrusive sound from background talk in the command post, wind noise, and helicopters flying.

There would be an aide working next to him, Ogès said, writing down radio updates on a whiteboard. It was hard to decide what should be written down, what left off, with the risk of errors in recording enemy coordinates. There would be seconds to decide.

“I found it highly constraining,” he said. “If only I had a permanent synthesis of what was going on over the radio.

“There is a problem of over-saturation of information, and a lack of analysis of what is said on the radio,” he said. Much of the radio information went unused, and it took time to retrieve written information in the Excel system.

“It’s almost impossible to know what is happening,” he said. “That’s where we got the idea for our program – a program which gathers all the information from the field, starting with the radio.”

The program gathers up the radio calls into a ‘data set,’ draws out information, analyses, and sends on to the right officers, he said.

The importance of accurate text transcripts of radio calls could be seen in deployments.

“If, on an overseas deployment, the French army does something like bombing a village, it has to be justified afterwards according to the rules of war,” he said.

If there is no access to radio information or a search in the meta data is needed, that could take months, he said. It would be easier if there were a transcript.

Orion exercise, Ukraine talks

The company’s product was tested for three months during the Orion exercise, a French joint and multi-domain operation with allies including British, German, and U.S. forces. The exercise ran February 8 to April 30, deploying 12,500 French personnel in air, land, naval, and space operations, working with cybersecurity and information resources. The exercise was held in northern France, and spanned scenarios from hybrid threats to high-intensity attacks.

Lysk showed pictures from the exercise of its compact electronic box, effectively the server containing the Lore program, which could be updated with a USB key.

Meanwhile, the partners are also in “active” talks with Kyiv authorities on developing a prototype product for Ukrainian forces. Such a program would be similar to the present Lore version.

The talks follow a visit to Ukraine last summer to 30 km from the front with Russia.

There is “speed of innovation” in Ukraine, with software such as Delta upgraded virtually every week, the reporters were told, with WhatsApp, Starling, and Google widely used.

The military and political leaders in Western Europe showed “tremendous willingness” to change, the reporters were told.

“The mood is to change things,” Heinemann said.

That mood for change opens doors for software for the military sector, reflecting a shift in attitude compared to the prevailing view before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, reporters were told.

The Lysk co-founders declined to estimate the value of the market for its program, other than to say the market is developing fast and will be large. The company sees Europe as the target market as a minimum, as the domestic market would not sustain business life in the long term.

The company is talking to potential German “integrators,” and has advisors in Germany, Poland, the U.K., the Baltics and other countries.

“We are condemned to being European,” a co-founder said. “We cannot afford to be nationalist.”

There are several national computer cloud networks in Europe, leading to fragmentation of the market, just as there is not just one cloud network in the U.S., the co-founder said.

In France there is Bleu from Cap Gemini and Microsoft, and there is Google and Thales in S3NS, he said. In Germany there are cloud networks such as S3NS with Thales, the Delos cloud, and a cloud from SAP partnered with Deutsche Telekom.

Each country has its joint venture clouds, offering opportunities for start-ups, the director said.

The European market is complicated, and it remains to be seen how Lysk will tackle the market in France, Germany, and Poland, where the three company founders come from.

“We have to understand this ecosystem of sovereign clouds to grow,” the co-founder said.

Sovereign cloud networks

The importance of sovereign cloud networks could be seen at the 2023 Paris airshow, when Dassault Aviation said it was making a commercial offering of a European sovereign cloud computing service with Dassault Systèmes, its partner company held by the family-owned Groupe Industriel Marcel Dassault. Dassault Aviation builds fighter jets.

The political significance of European sovereignty in cloud systems was pointed up when the European Parliament said June 3 the elected assembly will switch to the French search engine Qwant from Google, Reuters reported. That move to a new software was a bid to cut Europe’s reliance on U.S. technology, and support local suppliers.

The European Commission was announcing later that day measures on chips, cloud computing and AI as part of its “Buy and Use European” campaign, the news agency reported.

Ogès, a French national, served nine years as a Gendarmerie officer, of which four were in the élite GIGN and one year at the crisis centre at the Elysée president’s office. He was posted to Khartoum three years ago, when the GIGN and special forces evacuated French and foreign nationals from Sudan, stricken by civil war.

Ogès left the GIGN to study at INSEAD, a business school in the suburbs of the capital, where he met Heinemann.

Heinemann, a German national, had worked seven years at Cloudflare, which included the launch of a financial product, he said. Heinemann met Majkowski, the Polish co-founder and partner, at Cloudflare.

Majkowski, who worked 12 years at Cloudflare, is a cybersecurity specialist. He went to Poland’s border with Ukraine to welcome Ukrainian refugees when Russia invaded the neighbouring country. Later, he helped send four-wheel drive vehicles to Ukraine to help Ukrainians.

Lysk is “fine tuning” the Whisper AI transcription service, which it preferred to the speech-to-text product Voxtral from Mistral, a co-founder said. There is constant change, and the company could switch to Mistral if Mistral came up with a better product.

The Lore program could later be sold to the security market, reporters were told.

Lysk is based in Paris, and last year raised funds from backers including Project 8 and Scaleway. The company employs 13 staff, and carried job ads for two software engineers on its website at the time of the press briefing.

The company name comes from one of the mountains in the Alps, on the Italian-Swiss border, pointing up its European origins. The average age of the three founding partners is 32, and they use English as the working language in the Paris office.

The Eurosatory trade show for land and air-land weapons runs June 15-19. The Lore program, which works in different languages, will be demonstrated in French, English, German, and Polish at the show.

Building the Airfield: MWSS-373 and the Expeditionary Enablers of WTI 2-26

06/13/2026

By Robbin Laird

The first week of Weapons and Tactics Instructor Course 2-26 began not with aircraft, but with aluminum matting and a post driver. On March 14, 2026 — the opening phase of the seven-week course — Marines with Marine Wing Support Squadron 373, Marine Aircraft Group 11, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing, conducted an expeditionary airfield practical application at Auxiliary Airfield II near Yuma, Arizona. What the photographs from that day document is the unglamorous but operationally essential foundation on which everything else in the course depends.

The placement of this evolution in the WTI schedule is deliberate. Before the assault support tactics, before the close air support runs, before the non-combatant evacuation operations at Twentynine Palms, prospective Weapons and Tactics Instructors must understand how a forward airfield comes into existence. The aircraft that will execute all those subsequent missions require surfaces to operate from. Those surfaces do not appear by themselves.

AM-2 Matting: The Portable Airfield

The equipment at the center of the photographs is AM-2 aluminum matting, the interlocking aluminum panels that have served as the Marine Corps’ primary expeditionary landing surface construction system for decades. Each panel is a standardized module with interlocking edges that, assembled in sequence, create a surface capable of supporting fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft on terrain that would otherwise be unusable. The system’s value lies not in its sophistication but in its simplicity: it can be transported in a relatively small logistics footprint, assembled by a small team with hand tools and a power driver, and reconfigured or relocated as the operational situation changes.

Several photographs show Marines working at ground level securing the matting edges and locking interconnects between panels. One shows a Marine on his knees driving a securing rod through the edge of a mat section with a mallet, a row of additional rods laid out beside him. One shows two Marines at the mat edge working the connector hardware together while multiple additional personnel — Marines and at least one Army soldier in OCP uniform — are active at different points around the expanding surface. The level of hands-on detail in these photographs is notable: this is not observation training. Everyone is working.

The most operationally precise photograph in the set shows a close-up of two pairs of gloved hands, it shows safety wire being twisted and secured through the connector hardware of the mat assembly. This detail matters. Safety wiring is the step that takes a laid surface from assembled to certified, the step that ensures the matting will not shift or separate under aircraft loads, prop wash, or repeated traffic. It is also a time-consuming, skill-dependent step that cannot be rushed. A prospective WTI who does not understand why it exists and how long it takes cannot accurately plan an expeditionary airfield construction timeline.

The Post Driver and the Anchor System

Several images document a parallel activity: the operation of a pneumatic post driver, a Stanley hydraulic impact unit mounted on the bed of a red pickup truck, driving anchor stakes through the matting surface into the desert soil. Two to three Marines work the driver at any given moment: one operating the tool, one steadying the stake, one monitoring from the truck bed. The yellow and green safety helmets worn by the operators are hearing protection for the impact tool.

The anchor stake system is what keeps the matting in place under operational conditions. An unanchored aluminum surface under the rotor wash of a CH-53K or the prop blast of a departing MV-22B is a hazard, not an asset. The anchor stakes driven through the mat and into the substrate below are the mechanical connection between the surface and the ground. Their placement, depth, and spacing are not arbitrary. They are specified in the construction standards that MWSS-373 is trained to execute and WTI students are trained to direct.

The Brief and the Joint Dimension

The evolution opens with a brief by Sgt. Rene Medina, a Motor Vehicle Operator with MWSS-373, photographed speaking to a small group of Marines against the flat, fence-lined desert of Auxiliary Airfield II. The fact that a Motor Vehicle Operator is delivering the technical brief is a reminder of how the Marine Wing Support Squadron actually functions: it is not composed exclusively of engineers or aviation specialists. It is a combined-arms support unit whose personnel, across motor transport, engineering, fuels, communications, and aviation ground support specialties, collectively make expeditionary aviation possible.

One image shows a female Marine NCO briefing with both arms extended, orienting the group to something in the field, most likely the layout of the airfield site or the organization of the work parties. Two other Marines in tropical pith helmets flank her. The pith helmets are a visual marker of the heat management measures appropriate for extended outdoor work in the Yuma desert in March.

Two photographs show a U.S. Army soldier, name tape “Lake,” first lieutenant rank visible, working directly alongside the Marines on the mat surface. This joint presence is not incidental. WTI explicitly integrates Army, Air Force, and in some evolutions interagency participants across its training events. The expeditionary airfield construction evolution is no exception: in operational scenarios, forward airfield construction may involve joint engineer teams, host nation support elements, or partner-force personnel who need to be able to work alongside Marine Wing Support specialists to a shared standard.

MWSS-373 and the Distributed Operations Imperative

Marine Wing Support Squadron 373 is a 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing unit based at MCAS Miramar, California. Its primary function is to establish, operate, and defend expeditionary airfields and forward operating bases, the physical infrastructure that makes sustained expeditionary aviation possible. In the Marine Corps’ current operational design for the Indo-Pacific, this function is not a support afterthought. It is central.

The concept of distributed Maritime Operations, which drives much of Marine Corps force design under Force Design 2030 and its subsequent iterations, explicitly requires the ability to establish and operate from a network of dispersed, austere sites, islands, coastal strips, or any terrain from which fires, aviation, and intelligence collection can contribute to sea denial and maritime domain control. Each of those sites requires the kind of capability that MWSS-373 provides: a landing surface, a fuel point, a communications node, and the security to defend it long enough to be operationally useful.

What the WTI expeditionary airfield practical application at Auxiliary Airfield II rehearses is not simply a construction skill. It rehearses the decision cycle: how quickly can a team assess a site, determine what matting configuration is required, sequence the work parties, execute to standard, and certify the surface as ready for aircraft operations?

A prospective WTI who completes this evolution understands the answer to that question from personal experience. When they later plan an assault support mission that requires a forward arming and refueling point at an unimproved site, they know what it actually takes to make that site ready.

The Enabling Logic of WTI

The photographs from March 14, 2026 do not show aircraft. They show Marines and soldiers on their knees in the desert, driving stakes and twisting safety wire and learning the assembly sequence for an aluminum surface that will someday — in a real operation, at a real forward site — determine whether an aircraft can land or cannot.

This is the enabling logic that WTI builds into every prospective instructor: aviation capability is not bounded by the aircraft. It extends to the surfaces those aircraft require, the fuel that sustains them, the communications that coordinate them, and the security that protects all of it. The Marine Wing Support Squadron is not a support unit that follows the aviation. It is a component of an integrated system that makes the aviation possible in the first place.

The WTI student who hammered a stake into the desert floor at Auxiliary Airfield II on March 14 will carry that understanding through every subsequent evolution in the seven-week course and back to their squadron when the course is done.

WTI Events: The Engine of Marine Aviation Transformation at MAWTS-1

The Challenge of Chaos Management

06/12/2026

By Robbin Laird

My 2026 framework Mastering Chaos begins from a premise that most leadership literature still refuses to accept: traditional crisis management is not merely inadequate. It is actively dangerous. It was designed for a world of isolated, slow-moving systems with slack built into every layer. That world no longer exists.

The term that anchors the framework is deliberately provocative: the anarchy of the moment. Disorder is not a temporary disruption you ride out. It is not a storm that passes so you can return to normal operations. It is the system itself. The parameters of modern organizational life are in constant motion, shifting under our feet faster than any fixed-point analysis can track.

This is not simply a matter of having more bad news to process, though the 24/7 media environment certainly accelerates the sensation. The more important point is structural: the DNA of a crisis has mutated. We have built a world defined by deep, invisible interconnectivity, and that interconnectivity has a specific mechanical consequence. When a crisis erupts anywhere in this network, it refuses to stay in its lane. It bleeds across systems operating at different scales and different speeds, spawning secondary crises before the first one is even diagnosed.

The twin engines of modern chaos are what systems theorists call tight coupling and interactive complexity. In a loosely coupled system, you have slack, buffers, redundant inventory, breathing room to observe a failure, walk over, and fix it. Tight coupling eliminates that slack. Components are so closely packed that a failure in a single node propagates violently and immediately through the entire network.

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is the canonical example. A geological disaster in coastal Japan shut down automobile assembly lines in the American Midwest — not because of any direct physical connection, but because just-in-time supply chains had eliminated every buffer between the factory floor in Japan and the production line in Ohio. There was no slack. When one domino fell, the entire table disintegrated.

The sociologist Charles Perrow called these “normal accidents” and the term is important precisely because it is counterintuitive. He did not mean ordinary accidents. He meant that when you design a system with zero slack and high complexity, catastrophic failure is not a bug. It is a structural feature. You have packed the dominoes so tightly together to save money and time that you cannot even see the first one fall before the whole table goes.

This structural fragility collides with what I call the transparency paradox. The BP Deepwater Horizon disaster illustrated it perfectly. There was unprecedented visibility, underwater cameras, drones, real-time global coverage. Everyone could watch the oil flow from that pipe. But the actual decision-makers were drowning in conflicting data, political pressure, and public outrage. Transparency accelerated the pressure to act immediately, to do something visible, to not look incompetent on camera. Acting blindly in a tightly coupled system almost always triggers secondary disaster.

What we are dealing with in these situations is not merely a hard problem. It is what theorists call a wicked problem, a fundamentally different category.

A tame problem, even a genuinely difficult one, has a structure: you find the leak, you patch it, you are done. A wicked problem has no definitive borders and no root cause. Every intervention spawns new crises at different scales. The Covid-19 pandemic is the obvious recent example: implementing school closures to slow viral spread instantly created cascading crises in child psychology, workforce participation, supply chains, and economic stability. Cut off one head, three more appear.

There is no stopping point. There is no victory declaration. The very notion of returning to normal, the operating assumption behind every linear crisis management model — becomes incoherent.

If the environment is fundamentally chaotic, leadership cannot be about crafting the perfect five-year plan. It requires developing specific cognitive skills to navigate through the fog. I call this the chaos navigator.

The first of these skills is adaptive thinking, what the poet John Keats, writing in the 1800s, called negative capability: the capacity to remain in a state of uncertainty, mystery, and doubt without irritably reaching after fact and reason. This goes against every instinct of a high-achieving professional. We are trained to resolve ambiguity quickly because ambiguity feels like a psychological threat. But a chaos navigator must hold multiple competing hypotheses simultaneously without prematurely locking onto a comforting but ultimately wrong story.

This is not paralysis. It is acting on provisional maps. You formulate three working hypotheses based on the weak signals currently available. You set trip wires, specific metrics that will tell you immediately when a hypothesis is failing. You make a move, but you actively hunt for disconfirming data. You want to prove yourself wrong in real time, so you can update the map before you drive off a cliff.

The second skill is pattern recognition under uncertainty. An experienced air traffic controller is not mechanically matching blips on a radar screen to textbook templates. They are sensing the space, noticing a slight wobble in an approach path, hearing a micro-hesitation in a pilot’s voice, forming a provisional map from weak signals and testing it immediately with a probing question or five more seconds of telemetry.

The third skill is emotional regulation and this is the biological bottleneck of the entire process. Under severe pressure, the autonomic nervous system hijacks the prefrontal cortex. Cortisol spikes, vision narrows, and the cognitive capacity required for adaptive thinking evaporates. A leader in physiological panic transmits that panic through the entire organization like an electric shock. Everyone drops their tools and starts vibrating at the same frequency. Emotional regulation is not pretending you are not afraid. It is the disciplined practice of recognizing your own physiological spike, breathing through it, and consciously returning authority to your rational brain.

Once regulated, the fourth skill becomes possible: collaborative sense mapping. The complexity of a wicked problem exceeds the processing power of any single human mind regardless of how talented that individual may be. The logistics officer, the legal advisor, the cyber specialist, the supply chain manager each hold a partial, incomplete view of the chaos. The crucial weak signal almost never appears in the boardroom. It appears at the periphery of the organization, in someone junior enough to be close to the ground. Distributed cognition overlapping those partial views through deliberate mechanisms is how the full pattern emerges.

Even the most capable chaos navigator will crash against a brick wall if the organization itself is designed for a different era. The cultural architecture matters as much as the individual cognitive toolkit.

The shift required is from brittle efficiency to adaptive resilience. I conceptualize this structurally as moving from a medieval stone fortress to a biological immune system. The fortress is optimized to block exactly one kind of threat, a frontal ground assault. It is useless against anything else. The immune system is distributed, constantly patrolling, learning from novel pathogens, and deploying specialized cells to wherever the infection actually is.

In organizational terms, this means core-versus-surge architecture. The core is your minimum viable organization: the essential processes that must persist to maintain identity, ensure compliance, and keep the lights on. The surge elements are modular, cross-functional teams that can be rapidly assembled, deployed against a specific wicked problem, and dissolved or reconfigured as the terrain changes.

Running surge teams effectively requires mission command, complete decentralization of execution. The leader provides a crystal-clear commander’s intent: what must be achieved and why it matters. The how belongs entirely to the teams on the ground, because they are the ones actually seeing the shifting terrain.

This in turn requires dynamic resource reallocation, maintaining roughly 10 to 20 percent of budget, personnel bandwidth, or supply chain capacity as an uncommitted reserve. Intentional redundancy. Alternative suppliers. Overlapping skill sets. Backup communication lines.

This is the hardest organizational argument to make. Financial markets reward lean, hyper-optimized operations and treat uncommitted reserves as wasted capital. The counterargument must reframe redundancy not as inefficiency but as existential insurance. The geopolitical sphere offers abundant proof of what happens when institutions optimize purely for short-term efficiency: they strip away resilience to fund immediately visible projects, and when the weather changes, they find themselves adrift with no slack in the system at all.

There is a final dimension that bears emphasis as we move further into the AI era. Artificial intelligence is rapidly absorbing the rigid, linear, technical problem-solving tasks that have historically constituted a large part of professional work. The algorithms can process data infinitely faster than any human mind.

But navigating the sheer ambiguity of a wicked problem, holding competing thoughts simultaneously, regulating physiological panic, acting courageously on a provisional map that you know is incomplete, that requires a human mind. Chaos literacy may become the only professional skill that cannot be automated away.

The underlying architecture of resilience rests on three pillars: human adaptability, intellectual flexibility, and institutional cohesion. Without those three, the mechanics of surge architecture and mission command and dynamic resource allocation are inert machinery. With them, organizations can do what tightly coupled, rigidly efficient systems cannot: change the tire while the car is still moving.

MV-22 Osprey’s Support Personnel Recovery

U.S. Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey’s and KC-130J’s work hand-in hand with U.S. Air Force Pararescuemen, or PJ’s, assigned to the Personnel Recovery Task Force at Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa to tackle the long operational distances faced when conducting rescue operations. Wherever forces are deployed, they stand ready to bring them home,

DJIBOUTI

04.22.2026

Video by Senior Airman Michelle Ferrari 

Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa