Refueling the Mesh: What a Robotic Connector Off Virginia Tells Us About the Autonomous Fleet’s Missing Link

09/04/2026

By Robbin Laird

In August 2026, off Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Virginia, a Navy-industry team quietly solved a problem that has constrained every discussion of unmanned maritime systems I have written about for the past several years: how do you keep an autonomous vessel on station without a person ever touching it?

According to a Defense Visual Information Distribution Service report by Latasha Chavez, engineers from Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division’s Blue Water Instrumentation office (BWI), together with Maritime Tactical Systems Inc. (MARTAC) and the Israeli firm Sealartec, ran a demonstration in which a robotic towed connector repeatedly captured, refueled, and released an unmanned surface vessel at sea. The USV was MARTAC’s Navy-owned T38. The connector was Sealartec’s towable capture and connection device (TCCD), towed behind the training support vessel USNS Vindicator. Over the course of the demonstration and the days leading up to it, the system completed roughly one hundred connection cycles and transferred 400 gallons of fuel to the T38, moving from concept to on-water testing in seven months.

That is a modest-sounding technical milestone. It is also, I think, the missing piece in an argument I have been building across a shipbuilding book and a running body of work on what I call the maritime kill web: the argument that a fleet built around autonomous systems only works if those systems can be logistically sustained without reverting to the crewed-ship model they were meant to reduce dependence on.

The Problem Underneath the Demonstration

Spencer Holloway, director of BWI’s Future Capabilities Office, framed the immediate driver in operational terms tied to his own program: NAWCWD’s hypersonic and precision long-range fires testing increasingly requires data-collection assets distributed across flight profiles that extend thousands of miles beyond fixed test ranges. Every one of those distributed sensor nodes is a vessel, and every vessel that has to break off station and return to port for fuel opens a gap in coverage, loses the redundancy the test architecture is built on, and interrupts the mission it exists to support.

That is the test-range version of a problem I have been describing in warfighting terms. In the chapters I have been drafting on maritime logistics, the core argument is that a mesh fleet built from unmanned surface and undersea nodes does not eliminate the sustainment burden that navies have always carried: it relocates it. A single large combatant with organic fuel, water, and stores can loiter for weeks. A distributed mesh of smaller autonomous platforms, whatever it gains in numbers, dispersal, and expendability, inherits a much higher frequency of resupply events, and each of those events was, until recently, an argument for keeping a crewed vessel or a crewed boat team in the loop somewhere in the chain.

Ronald Raymer, branch head for capability, innovation, science and technology integration at U.S. Fleet Forces Command, said as much when he described what unmanned refueling actually buys the fleet: greater reliance on unmanned vessels instead of manned ones, the ability to push USVs into higher-threat areas without risking manned vessels and personnel, and the ability to distribute capability into an area without paying for large, expensive manned platforms to carry that capability there. That is a fair summary of the mesh-fleet argument stated from the operator’s side rather than the analyst’s side, and it is worth taking seriously precisely because it came from Fleet Forces Command rather than from a program office selling a system.

Closing the Loop 

I spent a fair amount of the logistics chapter in the current shipbuilding manuscript working through Military Sealift Command’s hybrid-fleet planning and the Marine Corps’ terminal-distribution problem or the last tactical mile of getting fuel, parts, and stores to a dispersed force ashore or afloat. What was an answer to the equivalent last-mile problem for an unmanned surface vessel: who, or what, meets the USV at sea and keeps it fueled without a boat crew doing a manual connection?

The TCCD is a first answer to that question, and it is worth being precise about what kind of answer it is. This was not a one-off proof of concept; it was, by Sealartec CEO Amitai Peleg’s account, close to a hundred connection cycles run in quick succession, which is the kind of repetition count that starts to look like a maturing capability rather than a demonstration stunt. And critically, it was still a remotely operated process. Peleg was explicit that the next step on Sealartec’s roadmap is a fully autonomous architecture in which the USV approaches the refueling device, communicates through automated protocols, and maneuvers itself into position, removing the human operator from the loop entirely.

That distinction matters more than it might appear to at first. In the framework Ed Timperlake developed around payload utility or the idea that a mesh fleet lets a force buy target acquisition and target engagement separately rather than bundling both into a single exquisite platform is the same logic of disaggregation applies to sustainment. A refueling connector that still requires a human in a control loop is a labor-saving device. A refueling connector that a USV can find, dock with, and disengage from entirely on its own is a mesh-fleet node in its own right: a fixed or towed asset with its own autonomy stack, its own sensing, and its own role in the overall system architecture. Under that framing, BWI and Sealartec are not just solving a refueling problem; they are adding a new class of actor to the mesh, one whose only job is to extend the on-station time of every other actor in it.

The Mesh Gets a Fuel Line

This connects directly to the MARTAC thread I have been building since my interview with Tom Hanson, MARTAC’s Chief Information Officer, about what it actually takes to turn a collection of unmanned surface vessels into a functioning mesh rather than a fleet of boats operating independently. Hanson’s argument rested on the idea that platform autonomy is only half the problem; the harder half is the architecture that lets platforms behave as nodes in a system rather than as separate assets each requiring their own dedicated attention.

Fuel is the most basic form of that dependency. A mesh fleet that can share sensing, share track data, and hand off tasking across nodes but still requires each node to individually break formation and steam back to a pier is not yet a mesh in the operational sense. It is a set of independently sustained platforms that happen to talk to each other.

What the Little Creek demonstration adds is a sustainment layer that does not require the mesh to break its own formation to feed itself. A USV that can be met, refueled, and released by a towed or forward-positioned connector, ideally with decreasing human involvement over time, is a USV that can remain part of the mesh’s operational picture through the entire cycle rather than dropping out of it during transit to and from port.

It is also worth noting who assembled the contracting architecture that let this happen quickly: the Littoral Combat Ship Mission Modules Program Office and the Navy’s Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Robotics and Autonomous Systems provided the contracting support that let BWI bring MARTAC and Sealartec together, while Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren and Carderock Divisions sponsored the event alongside Fleet Forces Command.

That is a fairly wide coalition of offices for what is, on paper, a fueling hose. It suggests the Navy itself understands this less as a niche instrumentation fix for one test office and more as infrastructure that several different USV-dependent programs will eventually need.

Testing Infrastructure as a Preview of Operational Infrastructure

There is a pattern worth flagging here that recurs throughout the history of naval unmanned systems: capabilities built first to support test and evaluation ranges have a tendency to migrate into operational use once they are proven. BWI’s stated mission is supporting hypersonic and precision long-range fires testing, an unglamorous, instrumentation-focused mandate that rarely makes headlines on its own.

But the requirement driving this refueling work, the need to keep distributed sensor and data-collection assets on station across flight profiles spanning thousands of miles, is structurally identical to the requirement facing an operational mesh fleet trying to maintain persistent coverage across a contested littoral or a blue-water approach.

Holloway’s own language underscores this. He described the underlying challenge as applying “more broadly” than the immediate test mission, framing the test-range use case as an instance of a general problem rather than the whole of it. That is consistent with how BWI’s own roadmap is structured: the next milestone is described as an end-to-end autonomous refueling demonstration combining rendezvous, approach, capture, fuel transfer, disconnection, and return to mission as a single evolution which is to say, the full logistics cycle of an autonomous vessel, tested as one continuous sequence rather than as isolated steps. The near-term work Holloway described, reducing command-and-control latency for precise maneuvering and integrating next-generation local positioning systems, is exactly the technical foundation an operational mesh fleet would need regardless of whether the vessel being refueled is collecting hypersonic flight data or standing picket duty in a contested strait.

Where This Fits in the Larger Argument

There is the broader question of how legacy hulls and unmanned systems can be combined into a maritime mesh, and the hardest part of building an autonomous fleet is rarely the platforms themselves. USVs, UUVs, and their sensor packages have matured quickly and are reasonably well understood.

What has lagged is the connective tissue: the command-and-control architecture, the launch-and-recovery infrastructure, and as this demonstration makes clear the sustainment infrastructure that lets those platforms operate as a persistent system rather than as a rotating set of assets cycling in and out of maintenance and refueling.

The wolfpack USV tactics I have written about in the context of Crimea and the Taiwan Strait depend on exactly this kind of persistence. A USV wolfpack’s value against a logistics fleet or an amphibious approach is a function of how long it can maintain pressure and how quickly a depleted node can be replaced or refueled without abandoning the patrol pattern. Karl Van Deusen, MARTAC’s senior vice president, made a version of this same point when he described the value of testing in an operational environment: it let the team identify improvements and refine concepts of operation for unmanned maritime systems generally, not just for the T38 specifically. That is the right level at which to read this demonstration, not as a single-platform fix, but as a concept-of-operations proof point for the entire class of vessel.

Peleg’s closing observation is also worth taking at face value rather than as boilerplate enthusiasm. He noted that defense organizations talk constantly at industry conferences about wanting to adapt to the pace of commercial technology development and operate more like agile startups, and that BWI did not just talk about that posture but demonstrated it, moving from concept to on-water testing of a novel refueling architecture in seven months.

Whatever one thinks of the broader acquisition-reform conversation, a seven-month timeline from concept to repeated at-sea demonstration is fast by any standard the surface fleet has historically operated on, and it is fast in a way that matters specifically because unmanned systems programs live or die on whether the enabling infrastructure can be fielded at the same pace as the platforms themselves.

What the Numbers Actually Tell Us

It is worth dwelling for a moment on the specific figures in the report, because they say more than they appear to at first glance. A hundred connection cycles and 400 gallons transferred over a handful of days is not, by itself, an impressive quantity of fuel, a single crewed patrol craft could take on more than that in one pierside stop. The number that matters is the cycle count relative to the timeline: roughly a hundred discrete capture-refuel-release evolutions completed in the run-up to and including a single demonstration event, on a system that had existed only as a concept seven months earlier.

That ratio is the real signal. Early-stage maritime autonomy programs typically struggle to accumulate repetitions quickly, because every failed docking attempt, every damaged connector, and every schedule slip against a range window costs weeks rather than days to recover from. A hundred cycles in a compressed window suggests a connector design and a control process robust enough to fail safely and reset quickly at sea which is precisely the operational property that separates a laboratory curiosity from a fieldable piece of infrastructure.

It is also the property that will matter most as the system moves toward the fully autonomous docking Peleg described, since an autonomous vehicle attempting its own approach and capture needs a connector that tolerates the inevitable early failures of an immature guidance algorithm without becoming a hazard to the vessel or the connector itself.

The Coalition Behind a Fuel Line

I noted above the range of Navy offices that assembled the contracting architecture for this event, and it is worth returning to that list because it tells us something about how the Navy itself is categorizing this capability. The Littoral Combat Ship Mission Modules Program Office and the Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Robotics and Autonomous Systems are not organizations built around fueling infrastructure; they are organizations built around getting unmanned and modular systems into the fleet faster. Their involvement in enabling this contracting relationship suggests the Navy sees at-sea refueling less as a niche instrumentation requirement specific to BWI’s hypersonic test mission and more as a piece of common infrastructure that any USV program will eventually need.

That reading is reinforced by the sponsorship list. Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division and Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division sponsoring an event run out of a weapons division air warfare center, in coordination with Fleet Forces Command, is an unusually wide institutional footprint for what remains, technically, a single test event involving one connector and one USV.

Programs do not typically attract that breadth of sponsorship unless multiple stakeholders already see a use for the underlying capability in their own portfolios. Fleet Forces Command’s presence in particular signals that this was read by at least part of the operational Navy, not just the test and acquisition community, as a fleet-relevant capability rather than a range-support tool.

The Missing Piece, Named

For several years now, the analytical work I have done on the mesh fleet has treated sustainment as the open question rather than the solved one. Command and control, sensor fusion, and even weapons integration for unmanned maritime systems have advanced faster than the unglamorous problem of keeping a small unmanned hull fed with fuel over an extended deployment without a crewed vessel standing by to do it.

What happened off Little Creek in August is the first demonstrated answer I am aware of to a question the mesh-fleet argument has been carrying as an assumption rather than a proven capability. A capital ship in my framework functions as a payload-utility manager, orchestrating target acquisition and target engagement across a distributed set of nodes rather than providing both itself. A refueling architecture like the TCCD is what lets those nodes stay in the mesh long enough for that orchestration to matter.

Without it, the mesh fleet is a concept that works until the fuel gauge runs low. With it, for the first time, there is a demonstrated path to a mesh that can feed itself.

The Navy story published on September 2, 2026 can be found here.

 

Putting the Artisan’s Brain in a Box: Lockheed Martin’s SensorMax and Driving Innovation for the “Fight Tonight” Navy

09/03/2026

By Robbin Laird

For four decades, the U.S. Navy trained a generation of acoustic sensor operators who could look at a waterfall display and, from pattern and instinct built over a career, call a submarine contact with a confidence no algorithm could match. That generation is retiring, not by choice, but by the calendar. And with it goes a body of tacit knowledge that no requirements document ever fully captured.

Lockheed Martin’s rapid prototyping team for the Navy helicopter program has spent the past three years building a answer to that problem, not as a future concept, but as a fielded capability already flying against live targets in fleet exercises. I sat down with Rob Ziemba Senior Manager, Future Capabilities and Chip Whitfield Principal Systems Engineer/Maritime Military Aviation Advisor to talk through what they’ve built, how they built it, and why the way they built it may matter as much as the technology itself.

From Artisan to Algorithm

The starting point, Whitfield explained, was demographic as much as technical. The Cold War generation of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) sensor operators, the people who could read a spectrogram the way a sommelier reads a wine list, is aging out of the workforce, and the operational tempo of the last two decades hasn’t replaced that expertise. The Navy and the joint force spent a generation focused on the Middle East, where submarines were not the primary threat, and the passive-acoustic interpretation skill set atrophied as a result.

“What could we do to capture what remains?” Whitfield asked, describing the origin of the effort. He pointed to Chris Moon, a Navy weapons school instructor who has trained nearly every MH-60R sensor operator for forty years, as the kind of expertise the team set out to preserve. “How do we get Chris Moon’s brain in a box? That’s where this started.”

The “box” is SensorMax, a spectrum foundation model and AI inference engine that Lockheed Martin developed to do something narrower and more useful than the large, generically-trained AI models most people associate with the term. Whitfield’s analogy is a hunting dog. Conventional supervised-learning models are like a bloodhound raised from birth and trained over months to chase one specific thing; if the target changes, you need a new dog, raised and trained all over again.

SensorMax instead takes the “bloodhound you’ve already got” and retrains it in the field, in hours or minutes rather than months, to recognize a new signature. The model doesn’t need to be rebuilt from scratch for each new target. It needs to be told, in effect, what the new target smells like, and it adapts.

That distinction retraining at the edge rather than rebuilding in a lab is the technical core of the program. But both Ziemba and Whitfield were emphatic that the more consequential change is organizational: who gets to touch the software, and how fast.

From 37 Minutes to Real Time

The team’s account of SensorMax’s evolution is itself a case study in what rapid, iterative fielding looks like when a program is unconstrained by a traditional five-to-seven-year acquisition cycle.

The technology’s first real test came at Resolute Hunter in 2024, against a training target. That was where I first met Whitfield and discussed the initial capability during my visit to NAWDC and with the MISR group. The MISR officers which stands for Maritime ISR officers are the gold standard for the Navy in terms of learning to turn diverse data streams into reliable information for targeting decisions.

At the Resolute Hunter exercise, the MISR team had begun inviting external participants to introduce new payloads directly into the training environment rather than waiting on traditional acquisition timelines. Lockheed Martin was one of the participants, working with NAWDC on a sensor payload for the Romeo and Sierra helicopters designed to expand the surveillance and reconnaissance picture available to the fleet.

At that point, updating the model required physically landing the helicopter, walking the data into a secure room by hand on a data locker, retraining the model, and carrying it back out to the aircraft. Whitfield said the team got that cycle down to 37 minutes with rotors still turning.

By the multinational UNITAS maritime exercise, the team had moved the process onto a mesh network, eliminating the need for the aircraft to land before transferring its data. During a subsequent exercise in May involving what Ziemba described only as “another target,” however, the team discovered that the network pathway remained inadequate. Between one flight and the next, Lockheed Martin software engineers rewrote the data pipeline overnight. The revised architecture allowed operators to access the helicopter’s mission computer, label sensor data in real time, retrain the model, and transmit the updated model back to the aircraft while it remained in flight.

By RIMPAC this summer, that capability had matured into something the team calls routine: two to three model retrains per four-hour flight, with performance improving while the aircraft was still airborne. “We’ve now gotten it so we’re improving performance during the flight,” Ziemba said.

Whitfield credited the pace of that evolution to a decision the team made early on to fund the development themselves rather than wait on a formal program of record. “One of the benefits of funding the whole thing ourselves was that we were able to move much, much faster,” he said. That self-funded posture let a small internal team backed, in Whitfield’s description, by “a community that had the ability and the need, and a company that had the resources… and the engineering acumen to do it”, iterate at the speed of the exercise schedule rather than the speed of a budget cycle.

Best of Breed, Not Proprietary Lock-In

A recurring theme in the conversation was the team’s insistence on sensor and platform agnosticism. Whitfield noted that the MH-60R helicopter behind him in his office carries 106 boxes built by 52 different companies, and that the rapid prototyping team has deliberately sought out “best in breed” partners rather than building everything in-house. At RIMPAC, that meant working not only with Saildrone but with Liquid Robotics’ Waveglider unmanned surface vehicle.

That partnership produced one of the program’s more significant technical findings: the ability to take data from a sensor the model wasn’t originally built for, in this case, a low-frequency acoustic array on the Waveglider, distinct from the DIFAR sonobuoys the MH-60R normally uses and use it to update the model flying on the helicopter. Administrative restrictions kept the team from completing that specific demonstration live on the RIMPAC range, but Whitfield said the systems checks and prior Unitas data left him convinced the underlying capability works: disparate sensors, on different platforms, updating a shared model.

“If you have the web and you have the right encryption and you have the right data share, you can move it back to a laboratory where you have the world’s greatest engineers,” Whitfield said. “You can take all sensor data and update models for all platforms in one world.” He called the implication “very futuristic” but grounded it in what the team has already proven: that the model can absorb data from sensors it wasn’t purpose-built for and put that data to work.

Ziemba described the underlying design philosophy the same way: the model was originally built for sonobuoys off a helicopter and then recognizing that an unmanned underwater vehicle wouldn’t necessarily carry sonobuoys at all extended again to ingest fundamentally different sensor types. “We’re not adapting the fleet to us. We’re adapting to the fleet,” Ziemba said, which is why the team has also worked with data-transport systems like Silvus rather than insisting on a proprietary pipe. Whitfield put the same point more bluntly: “We’re not trying to capture everything and make everybody come through us. Literally, the goal is how do we make the fleet more lethal and more safe, faster with what we’ve got right now.”

To move data at the classified level fast enough to matter, the team brought in a small company, Fuse Incorporated, to handle cross-domain solutions and networking across command-and-control systems, an area Ziemba said explicitly falls outside Lockheed Martin’s own core expertise. He indicated that “Fuse had an existing CDS solution that we were able to acquire and use faster than LM’s existing options ” He added: “All these exquisite sensors do nobody any good unless it gets to a decision maker at a COP that they can actually take the data, fuse it with others, and make decisions,” Ziemba said.

The Coders Come with the Aircraft

Perhaps the most consequential organizational choice the team made was bringing software engineers into the field with the operators, rather than sending problems back to a home office for a fix on someone else’s schedule.

“We actually bring coders with us,” Ziemba said. “We’re not going back to the shop to recode. We’re bringing the coders with us.” The result, he said, has been overnight rewrites of entire operator interfaces based on feedback the aircrew gave after a single fligh, changes that, run through a conventional crew station working group and requirements review process, would ordinarily take months or years to reach the fleet.

That posture, engineers embedded with the exercise, iterating against operator feedback in near-real time, is what both men pointed to as the real substance behind terms like “rapid prototyping” and “innovation at the edge,” phrases Whitfield and Ziemba both acknowledged have become common currency across the services without a shared understanding of what they actually require in practice.

The Acquisition Gap

Both men were candid about the tension between what the team has demonstrated and the acquisition system meant to field it. Ziemba described watching a capability that has been proven against live targets get referred back into “the standard Future Years Defense Process (FYDP) process,” with a timeline measured in years rather than the months in which the technology itself had matured.

Whitfield drew a comparison to Special Operations Command’s acquisition model and to microlending practices in small economies, where faster, smaller capital commitments unlock activity that a conventional lending bureaucracy would take too long to approve. “The bureaucracy is set such that it takes years to even get the contract approved,” he said. “As a small business, the price of entry is ridiculous unless you partner with a big[ger] entry.”

Whitfield credited the culture that made SensorMax’s rapid evolution possible to exercises like Resolute Hunter and RIMPAC, and specifically to the leadership of Rear Admiral Max “Pepper” McCoy, who as the admiral overseeing NAWDC’s Nautic ranges opened access to operators and resources in a way that let the team iterate against real operational feedback rather than a static requirements document. “You can write a requirements document for years, and you will still not garner the context that you get from a single Resolute Hunter or a single RIMPAC,” Whitfield said.

He argued that industry needs more, not fewer, opportunities to bring a capability that is “50 percent ready” to an exercise and find out what breaks, rather than being expected to arrive with something the government could buy off the shelf. “The more opportunities the Department of War gives us to do that, the idea of us, of anyone in industry, going, ‘Hey, I’ve got a box, I think it’s 50 percent ready, I’m trying to address this gap, and I’d like to come break it’, that’s how we get faster.”

Both men described SensorMax less as a single sensor program and more as an adaptable engine meant to be sensor- and platform-agnostic by design. Whitfield framed the underlying question as: “How do we create the engine to make use of any sensor data that we bring in? …If I’ve created an AI model that I could then use with any sensor data that comes in and update it in a way that it’s useful for every platform that I currently have, then I don’t care what you build tomorrow.”

Ziemba connected that adaptability directly to the operational tempo the fleet is now being told to expect. Referencing Admiral Samuel Paparo’s description of readiness for “the fight tonight” rather than a future fleet years away, Ziemba argued that SensorMax and the process behind it are an example of the kind of industry posture that tempo demands: models trained not on a static historical baseline but capable of in-situ retraining against the adversary and environment the fleet is facing today.

“The underwater environment changes all the time,” he said. “The ability to do the in situ retraining of the AI/ML that SensorMax allows us to do is giving that flexibility in terms of giving the Navy the adaptability and speed they need to adapt and win this fight.”

Notably, the Cold War model of underwater surveillance is changing dramatically under the influence of new technologies and platforms. The SensorMax approach is a critical part of such a transition to the post-SOSUS world.

SOSUS solved the sensing problem of its era by fixing hydrophone arrays to the seabed and wiring the ocean back to shore-based analysts. The architecture now emerging solves a different problem, geometry rather than fixed listening, by scattering sensing across mobile, networked nodes in place of a handful of cables. Programs such as TRAPS, DRAPES, and NEREUS are building the wireless connective tissue that lets that disaggregated field of sensors talk to the fleet, but connectivity by itself only produces more raw acoustic noise. It does not answer who, or what, makes sense of that noise fast enough to matter, and faster than a quieter adversary submarine fleet.

SensorMax is best understood as an early answer to that second half of the problem: an AI classification layer that travels with whatever platform happens to be listening on a given day, rather than one tied permanently to a shore station or a single aircraft type. In that sense, it does for the intelligence side of undersea surveillance what DRAPES does for connectivity, letting decades of investment in acoustic sensing and analytic tradecraft migrate into a mobile, software-defined architecture instead of being discarded along with the fixed arrays.

Leveraging Training to Shape Payload Innovations

Designed In, Not Bolted On: Barrett’s Third Lesson for the Autonomous Systems Age

09/02/2026

By Robbin Laird

When I sat down with then Chief of the Australian Navy, Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, in 2017, one of the quieter points he made has aged into one of the more prescient ones. Amid the launch of the largest Royal Australian Navy recapitalization since the Second World War, Barrett was already pushing his service away from a habit that has plagued navies for decades: designing a warship for the threat of the day and then rebuilding it, ship by ship, every time the threat changes.

His navy, he told me, was moving toward ships built from the outset to take on new payloads rather than be reconstructed around them. That is a modest-sounding idea. It is also one of the hardest things in shipbuilding to get right, and one of the easiest to get wrong.

The Bolt-On Failure and the Built-In Success

The U.S. Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship remains the cautionary tale. The LCS was sold on the promise that a single hull could swap between mine countermeasures, anti-submarine, and surface warfare missions by exchanging containerized modules in port. In practice, the Government Accountability Office found the Navy fell behind schedule developing the mission modules themselves and never built a comprehensive plan to close the resulting capability gaps. By 2016, the Navy had quietly abandoned the swapping concept altogether, assigning each hull a single permanent mission instead. Commentary since has been blunt: modularity, as practiced on LCS, was an idea that did not survive contact with the fleet.

The lesson usually drawn from that failure is that modularity itself does not work. That is the wrong lesson. The Royal Danish Navy has been running a version of the same idea since the 1980s, when its STANFLEX system let small patrol vessels and later the Absalon-class frigates swap standardized mission containers to punch above the weight a six-million-person country could otherwise afford. The concept has since matured into SH Defence’s Cube system, now offering several hundred qualified payloads, from torpedoes to unmanned systems to mine-laying packages, that can be loaded through side, stern, or top openings using a skidding system that keeps working in rough seas. SH Defence’s sales and marketing manager, Peter Liisberg, has described the point of the system directly: capability that is not fixed to a ship’s superstructure can keep pace with a threat environment that no navy can predict a decade out.

The difference between the American failure and the Danish success is not the presence or absence of modularity. It is where in the design process modularity gets decided. LCS treated modularity as a mission-generation feature bolted onto a hull that was otherwise built like any other warship, and the swapping infrastructure, the trained crews, and the logistics tail needed to make it real were never fully funded or matured. STANFLEX and the Cube system that grew from it treat modularity as a structural decision made before the keel is laid, embedded in standardized interfaces, frames, and handling systems that the rest of the ship is designed around.

Barrett’s Instinct, Playing Out in Steel

This is precisely the distinction Barrett was drawing in 2017, before most of the language above existed to describe it. He was not arguing for a rare, occasional refit cycle done more cleverly. He was arguing that a ship kept off patrol for a bespoke systems upgrade was a ship failing at the one job that mattered to him: being available. Designing in modularity from the start, rather than retrofitting it after the fact, was his answer to that problem for the submarine and future frigate programs then on his drawing board.

Japan’s Mogami-class frigate, and the enlarged New FFM now in construction, offers a cleaner test of that instinct than most, because the mothership logic was designed in from the keel rather than argued for after the fact. Tokyo’s shipbuilders describe the class in almost exactly Barrett’s terms: a major surface combatant conceived from the outset to host, launch, and recover autonomous systems as part of its core mission set rather than as an add-on.

The clearest case is mine warfare, where the Mogami’s OZZ-5 autonomous underwater vehicle searches for and classifies mines using synthetic aperture sonar and returns to the ship to offload its data, letting the crew build a minefield picture without sending the manned hull into it. The same forward-looking posture shows up in how the class has absorbed its own combat-system growth: the first six hulls were commissioned “fitted for but not with” a 16-cell Mk 41 vertical launch system that later ships received as built, and the follow-on New FFM design, stretched and widened for the purpose, doubles that capacity to 32 cells rather than reopening the original hull to fit it.

Australia has effectively adopted this logic as policy: in August 2025, Canberra selected the New FFM to replace its Anzac-class frigates, the same navy that inherited Barrett’s original bet on modularity now betting on a design built around the mothership concept rather than the bolt-on module.

The Danish Admiral Nils Wang has pushed the logic a step further, arguing in discussions I have had access to around the Cube system that sustained modularity eventually erodes the usefulness of legacy platform labels altogether. A ship built to swap propulsion modules, weapons modules, and sensor modules over its lifetime is not really a frigate or a corvette in the traditional sense; it is closer to what Wang calls a mother ship, defined less by its own fixed loadout than by the range of capability it can host and enable across a battlespace. That reframing matters because it changes what a navy is actually buying when it commissions a hull: not a fixed set of weapons and sensors locked in for thirty years, but the standardized frames, power, data architecture, and handling systems that let tomorrow’s payload replace today’s without touching the ship’s structure.

Why This Matters More Now Than It Did in 2017

Barrett made his case before the maturing autonomous systems mesh fleet gave modularity a second, larger job to do. It is no longer only about shortening the time a single manned hull spends offline for a combat-system upgrade. It is about whether that hull’s standardized interfaces can also host, launch, and recover the unmanned surface and underwater systems that increasingly carry payload the manned ship no longer needs to carry itself. A ship designed for bolt-on modularity, LCS-style, is poorly positioned for that second job.

A ship designed for structural modularity, STANFLEX-and-Cube-style, is already most of the way there, because the standardized frames and handling systems built to swap a mine-laying container for a decoy launcher are the same infrastructure needed to swap in an unmanned systems control module or a launch-and-recovery skid.

Barrett’s closing argument to me in 2017 was that none of this could be achieved without a national commitment treating shipbuilding as an industrial and national undertaking rather than a single-service acquisition program. The record since, from Denmark’s decades-long investment in a standardized payload ecosystem to the United States’ costly detour through LCS, suggests he had the causality right.

Modularity that is legislated, funded, and engineered in from the first design review tends to work.

Modularity announced as a feature and left to the acquisition system to sort out later tends not to.

The fleet you build today is, in that sense, still fighting the fleet you have.

Fighting with the Fleet You Have and Building Availability into the Autonomous Systems Age

Attacking the Drydock Problem: Robotics and the Compression of Repair Time

 

From AIS to Intelligence Authority: Windward and the Challenge of Maritime Domain Awareness in an Age of Chaos

09/01/2026

By Robbin Laird

When I spoke recently with Ami Daniel, the CEO and co-founder of Windward, I came away convinced that his company has been building toward something that most of the defense and intelligence establishment has been too slow to grasp: that in an era when no single navy can police the world’s oceans, the only viable path to maritime security is shared, scalable, commercially accessible intelligence. Windward is not the only player in this space, but it may be the most conceptually serious one.

Daniel is not a typical tech CEO. At age sixteen he built a community center worth a million dollars, by nineteen won every major youth excellence award his country had to offer, and then joined the Navy as a surface warfare officer. In 2006, his ship was struck by Iranian-supplied C-802 missiles. Four crew members died. Twelve were wounded. He was lucky to be alive. Two years later, he left the Navy.

That experience of operating in a complex, dangerous maritime environment, where the adversary used deception, where Iranian proxy capabilities were being actively employed, where the rules of the sea were being contested in real time, shaped everything that came after. In 2009, Daniel and his co-founder Matan Peled, also a Navy veteran, began thinking about what it would mean to bring genuine visibility to the world’s oceans. The first days of satellite AIS data were just arriving. The first radar-rate satellites were emerging. They saw an opportunity, and they took it.

“I told my wife, honey, there’s good news and bad news,” Daniel recalled. “The good news is it was right. The wrong news is I was slightly off on timing by about fifteen years.”

Building the Intelligence Authority of the Oceans

Windward describes its mission as becoming what Daniel calls “the intelligence authority of the oceans.” That phrase is worth unpacking, because it signals a very different ambition from simply aggregating ship-tracking data.

When the company was founded, perhaps half a percent of the world’s vessels were “going dark” or switching off their AIS transponders or otherwise evading tracking. Today, Daniel estimates that figure has climbed to roughly forty percent. That is an eighty-fold increase in deliberate maritime opacity. The shadow fleet that Russia has assembled to move sanctioned oil, the deceptive shipping practices employed by North Korea to evade UN monitoring, the undeclared cargoes moving through the Strait of Hormuz, these are not edge cases. They have become core features of the maritime environment.

Windward’s response has been to build what it calls a multi-source intelligence architecture. AIS is the starting point, but the company’s analysts and systems ingest a much broader range of inputs: port lineups, port reports, remote sensing data including electro-optical imagery, radio frequency analysis, synthetic aperture radar, ownership and corporate registry data, and sources that Daniel, appropriately, declined to detail publicly. The goal is to answer not just where a ship is, but what it is doing, who owns it, what it is carrying, and what that means for the customers who need to act on that information.

“I can tell you that there are ships in the Gulf,” Daniel explained. “But what do you care about? Where are the IRGC fast boats? Where are the dark tankers? Where is the first LPG non-declared cargo going out? That is the difference between data and intelligence. We are an intelligence business. We are not simply a data business.”

To operationalize this, Windward built what it calls its Maritime Intelligence Operations Center (MIOC),  a mission-ready managed service staffed by Windward domain experts, analysts, and engineers around the globe that provides continuous monitoring and investigations.

Daniel also noted that Windward has undergone a significant ownership transformation, taking the company private under U.S. private equity, backed by roughly 95 to 96 percent American shareholders. The company now holds a facility clearance and conducts top secret work for the U.S. Department of War.

Windward also recently appointed retired Vice Admiral Bob Sharp, formerly Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, as its Chief Maritime Intelligence Officer. Sharp, a man who spent his career at the very center of America’s maritime intelligence community, has chosen to help build maritime intelligence that is commercial, shareable, and usable by defense partners.

The Structural Problem: Global Commons Without a Global Policeman

The deeper argument that emerged from our conversation is not really about Windward’s product suite. It is about the structural transformation of maritime security since the Cold War, and what is required to manage it.

For roughly fifty years, the United States Navy functioned as the enforcer of the global rules-based maritime order. It was not really a “global commons” in any neutral or multilateral sense. It was, as I put it to Daniel, the American commons, underwritten by American naval power and American willingness to sustain that commitment. That era is over, and no amount of nostalgia or recrimination is going to bring it back.

“The US did take the role of the global rule-based order leader,” Daniel acknowledged, “including in its definition of LRIT after 9/11. And LRIT actually did not take off globally because of that because it was a U.S. initiative, not a global initiative.”

This is a subtle but important point. The Long-Range Identification and Tracking system was technically sound, but its governance model was American, which made it difficult to build the genuine international buy-in that a global maritime identification architecture requires. The shadow fleet phenomenon and the broader collapse of AIS compliance among vessels serving authoritarian state interests reflect in part the limits of an architecture built around American hegemony rather than shared rules that all states have endorsed and invested in.

The problem now is not simply tracking bad actors. The problem is building the conceptual and institutional foundation for a rules-based maritime order that can function without an American navy large enough to enforce it everywhere at once. That requires data that is shareable, affordable, and available to partners who are neither full U.S. allies nor adversaries, countries like Malaysia or Indonesia that have their own interests in maritime security and their own calculations about alignment.

Daniel put it succinctly: “Everything that comes from a cleared source is just not shareable. If you have something in aisle seven, you can’t give it to aisle two. So if you sign up to the logic chain of the age of chaos, the bifurcation of the world, the fact that the U.S. Navy will not be the sole guarantor of the rule-based order, the fact that authoritarian regimes will not play ball, you need to create a common ground to create that new rule-based order.”

Deceptive Shipping, Sanctions, and the Shadow Fleet

Windward’s commercial origins in sanctions compliance and deceptive shipping practices turned out to be less niche than they might initially have appeared. The techniques that North Korea pioneered for evading UN sanctions on its weapons programs — ship-to-ship transfers in international waters, transponder manipulation, flag-of-convenience structures layered through opaque corporate registries — have become the operational playbook for a much broader range of state-sponsored evasion.

Windward was, by its own account, the first commercial entity to systematically research and name deceptive shipping practices, working with the UN Security Council’s DPRK monitoring panel. That research contributed to what became formal regulatory language adopted by both the United States and the United Kingdom in their sanctions frameworks in May 2020. The language describes how vessels “go dark” to evade tracking, how cargo is concealed through documentation fraud, and how ownership structures are layered to obscure beneficial control. Much of that conceptual vocabulary now embedded in regulatory practice originated with Windward’s analytical work.

The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has made these questions acutely operational. Daniel described receiving roughly a hundred phone calls a day asking what is happening to oil transits through the strait. AIS provides part of the picture, but he estimated that over the past sixty days, AIS has given perhaps fifty percent of the true operational picture of what is moving through that chokepoint. The other fifty percent requires the multi-source fusion that Windward has spent fifteen years building toward.

The supply chain implications are significant beyond the immediate military dimension. Strategic petroleum reserves are finite and have already been drawn down substantially. If the straits remain contested, the cumulative effect on global oil supply is not indefinitely deferrable. The intelligence to understand what is actually moving or not moving through that corridor is not an abstract analytical luxury. It is operationally critical for governments, energy companies, and anyone with exposure to global supply chain risk.

Toward a New Maritime Intelligence Architecture

The conversation with Daniel pointed toward a set of requirements that neither the U.S. government nor the commercial maritime intelligence sector has fully articulated, let alone addressed.

First, the intelligence architecture for a multipolar maritime environment cannot be built around exquisite classified capabilities. The partners whose cooperation is essential for managing the global commons — allied navies, coast guards, port authorities, shipping companies, flag states — cannot be given access to intelligence derived from classified sources. A maritime commons that can only be secured by sharing intelligence that cannot be shared is not a viable commons. The bias toward exquisite collection and away from shareable intelligence is a structural problem in how the U.S. government has organized its maritime domain awareness investments, and it will not be solved without deliberate policy decisions at a high level.

Second, the distinction between crisis management and chaos management matters for how intelligence requirements are framed. In a crisis — a specific confrontation with Iran, a particular sanctions evasion episode — the demand is for precise, timely, actionable intelligence about specific actors. In an environment of chronic, persistent, multi-directional maritime disorder, the demand is different: it is for a sustained, comprehensive, shared picture of what normal looks like, so that deviations from normal can be detected reliably and attributed accurately. That is a different architecture, with different cost structures and different governance models.

Third, the transition from U.S. naval dominance to a more distributed maritime security architecture will require investments in partner capacity that go beyond hardware. The European navies that deployed to the Red Sea without anti-missile munitions were not underfunded in any simple sense. They had capital ships. They lacked the doctrine, the logistics, and in some cases the political will to operationalize maritime security independently. Shared intelligence — trusted, unclassified, commercially derived — is one of the few tools that can accelerate allied capability development without requiring the years of training and procurement that platform-centered capacity building demands.

Windward is well positioned to contribute to all three of these requirements. Its commercial model, its multi-source architecture, its global operational footprint, and its  U.S. clearance status place it at a useful intersection of commercial flexibility and government relevance.

Whether that potential is fully realized, in my view, depends on whether the U.S. defense establishment can shift enough of its conceptual weight away from the exquisite and classified toward the shared and actionable.

MUMS-14 and the Impact Force: Closing the Gap Steel Knight Exposed

08/31/2026

By Robbin Laird

On June 16, 2026, under a covered pavilion at Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, the Marine Corps activated Marine Unmanned Maintenance Squadron 14 — MUMS-14 — as a subordinate command of Marine Aircraft Group 14, 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing. Lieutenant Colonel Jeffrey F. Carben took command; Sergeant Major Tavaris J. Douglas became its senior enlisted leader; Colonel Benjamin W. Grant, MAG-14’s commanding officer, presided. MUMS-14 is the Corps’ first unit organized, trained and equipped specifically to provide organic-level maintenance for Group 5 unmanned aircraft chiefly the MQ-9A Reaper at forward locations.

Read against the institutional history of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, that activation is a milestone in its own right. Read against the conceptual argument I make throughout my new book that the Marine Corps is becoming an impact force rather than remaining a crisis management force, MUMS-14 looks like something more specific: the structural answer, on the East Coast, to the single problem that Steel Knight 2025 exposed as the binding constraint on the entire impact force concept.

That problem is logistics, and within logistics, maintenance at the distributed edge.

From Crisis Management Force to Impact Force

The distinction I draw in this book matters here.

A crisis management force is built around the assumption that the world moves in cycles, stability punctuated by discrete, identifiable crises to which forward-postured units respond with rehearsed playbooks. An impact force operates on a different premise: the boundary between peace and war has eroded, decision timelines have compressed below what traditional planning cycles can match, and waiting for a crisis to crystallize is itself a strategic risk. Under that premise, what matters is not how quickly a MAGTF can execute its own mission set, but how much decision advantage Marines can generate for the joint and combined force, how many targets they can find, characterize and hold at risk for someone else to engage, and how long they can persist forward, feeding kill webs that extend well beyond the range of their own organic weapons.

The MQ-9A sits near the center of that logic.

As I argue in the platform case studies in the book, the MQ-9’s contribution to impact is not kinetic; a single Reaper orbit does not generate immediate effect on its own. Its value is persistent ISR that feeds targeting cycles and sustains pattern-of-life analysis on adversary forces, coverage measured in the twenty-plus hours an MQ-9A can hold station, which no manned platform can match. VMU and VMUT squadrons operating from expeditionary sites are explicitly framed in the 2026 Marine Aviation Plan as giving the MAGTF continuous reach and decision advantage, with the MQ-9A increasingly positioned to deliver maritime domain awareness and extend MAGTF command and control into naval and joint campaigns.

None of that impact exists, however, if the aircraft generating it cannot be kept flying once it leaves a fixed installation.

And that is precisely where Steel Knight 2025 found the concept’s weakest joint.

Contested Logistics: The Achilles’ Heel

I MEF’s Steel Knight 2025 exercise, which I treat in this book as a campaign laboratory for impact force operations, forced distributed nodes to disperse from the opening moments rather than building up combat power in a secure rear area first. What it surfaced was not a shortage of concepts but a shortage of sustainment capacity to match them. Every dispersed site needed fuel, water, ammunition, maintenance support and communications infrastructure — and when those sites had to keep moving to avoid detection, sustaining them became harder still. One exercise participant’s summary of the result was blunt: nodes proved “a little bit too heavy.”

The maintenance piece of that weight problem was its own distinct finding. Officers I interviewed during the exercise were candid that the personnel side of forward maintenance detachments had largely been solved — “we’ve cracked the nut on the people, the size and structure of the types of people that go with it,” as one put it — but the parts side had not: “I don’t think we’ve totally cracked the nut yet on the parts pack-up.”

Predictive maintenance, the capability the Marine Corps is counting on to close that gap, remains immature in practice even where the algorithms exist, because the Navy’s supply system has not matured enough to act on what predictive tools can already tell it.

The 2026 Marine Aviation Plan names the underlying condition without flinching: Marine Corps aviation remains reactive in maintenance, supply and operations planning, which limits readiness and constrains the ability to sustain distributed aviation operations at all. I called that condition the Achilles’ heel of the impact force argument for a reason, every other dimension of the transformation, from digital interoperability to kill web integration to mission command, depends on units actually being able to stay in the field.

What MUMS-14 Actually Closes

MUMS-14 does not solve the parts-pack-up problem or fix the Navy’s supply chain.

What it does is something narrower and, for that reason, more durable: it gives Group 5 unmanned aviation an organic maintenance organization built specifically around the platform, rather than treating forward sustainment as something assembled ad hoc out of whichever maintainers and contractor support happen to be available for a given deployment.

MUMS-14 provides organic-level maintenance for the MQ-9A and its surrounding system of systems. sensors, communications relays, ground control stations, when the aircraft is operating away from Cherry Point, with VMUT-2 retaining training and operations and MALS-14 continuing to provide the broader intermediate-level logistics architecture already resident at the base. That three-way division mirrors the structure the Corps has long used for manned aviation; MUMS-14 simply extends it to a remotely piloted, geographically distributed platform for the first time.

That distinction is exactly what the Steel Knight findings argue is necessary before predictive maintenance, AI/ML-driven supply optimization, or any of the other initiatives in the 2026 plan’s sustainment line of effort can mean anything operationally.

You cannot apply predictive maintenance to a maintenance function that does not organizationally exist yet. The plan’s Dynamic Aviation Supply and Predictive Maintenance lines of operation both assume an established maintenance community generating the failure-rate and condition data those algorithms need to learn from. For the MQ-9A, on the East Coast, MUMS-14 is that community. It is the precondition the algorithms need, not a substitute for them and Steel Knight’s own honest assessment, that the technical capability to predict failures currently outpaces the supply chain’s ability to act on it, is a reminder that institutionalizing the maintainers is necessary but not sufficient.

Node Viability and the Reaper Detachment

Steel Knight’s other major contribution to this argument was the insight, attributed to Lieutenant General (Retired) Robert Hedelund, that distributed nodes should operate with inherent shelf lives — timestamps — rather than waiting passively to be extracted once threatened, with the next node already moving into position while the current one displaces. That logic depends entirely on a unit’s ability to set up, sustain and tear down a position fast enough to outrun targeting.

For an MQ-9A detachment specifically, the existence of MUMS-14 changes that calculation directly: II MEF can now deploy Reaper detachments with their own organic maintenance support, rather than depending on the Air Force or contracted logistics to keep aircraft flying once they leave Cherry Point.

A detachment that carries its own maintainers does not have to wait for a sustainment contract to catch up with it, and it does not have to negotiate access to someone else’s depot-level support in a theater where access itself may be contested which is the entire point of building a node that can actually move on a timestamp rather than one that has quietly become a fixed installation by necessity.

The Unglamorous Work Behind the Concept

It would be easy to read a squadron activation ceremony, colors passed, a sword exchanged, a brief embrace in front of the formation, as a footnote to the larger story of Marine Corps transformation.

I would argue the opposite.

The impact force concept lives or dies on exactly this kind of structural, institutional work: not the platforms or the doctrine papers, but whether the unit generating persistent ISR and decision advantage for the joint force can actually be sustained once it leaves a secure base. Lieutenant Colonel Carben told the Marines gathered at Cherry Point that the squadron’s job was to give the Corps a persistent, expeditionary maintenance capability that strengthens deterrence and supports Marines operating forward, language that, read against Steel Knight’s own conclusion that logistics remains the binding constraint on impact force operations, is not boilerplate.

It is the institution answering, in one corner of its force structure, the exact question this book leaves as its most consequential unresolved problem: can the Marine Corps actually sustain the distributed force it has designed?

MUMS-14 is one answer.

The rest of the impact force still has to prove it can do the same.

 

The Return of Harry and Meghan: The Continuing Saga

08/29/2026

By Robbin Laird

In the United States, the news cycle belongs almost entirely to Donald Trump. In the Mother Country, it belongs, once again, to the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. After six years in Montecito, Harry and Meghan are heading back to Britain, settling this fall in the Cotswolds rather than in any royal residence. King Charles was informed of the decision only shortly before it broke publicly, and by most accounts Harry has been angling for reconciliation as his father continues treatment for cancer. Buckingham Palace, true to form, has said nothing beyond its usual line about not commenting on the doings of non-working royals.

There is, of course, no shortage of theories about what brings them back: a desire to be nearer an ailing King, school places secured for Archie and Lilibet, or simply the pull of a story that has never really let go of the British public.

But the return is also a good moment to revisit an essay Kenneth Maxwell wrote for Second Line of Defense back in 2021, one that placed the current Duke of Sussex against the far stranger and more consequential life of the first Duke of Sussex and found the comparison almost entirely to Harry’s disadvantage.

Maxwell’s starting point was simple irony: the title Elizabeth II bestowed on Harry in 2018 had first been created in 1801 for Prince Augustus Frederick, ninth child of George III, the king, as Maxwell drily notes, who lost America. Where the present Duke has a B and a D at A-level to his name, the first Duke of Sussex was, by every account, formidably intelligent, well-travelled, and politically serious. He studied at Göttingen, settled for years in Rome and then Lisbon, and built a life that ran directly into the great currents of his age.

What Maxwell’s essay actually recovers is a genuinely remarkable transatlantic and Luso-Brazilian story hiding behind the modern tabloid one. In Lisbon, the first Duke of Sussex gathered a circle of young aristocrats, officers, and freemasons around him, and became a patron of Portuguese freemasonry’s formal recognition. Among that circle was a young Brazilian-born graduate of Coimbra, Hipólito José da Costa, who had been sent to the young United States to study manufacturing and agriculture, moved in Jeffersonian circles in Philadelphia, and later fled Portuguese Inquisition imprisonment for London where the Duke of Sussex sheltered him and made him his private secretary. From that partnership came the Correio Braziliense, the first Brazilian newspaper, published continuously in London from 1808 to 1822, campaigning for constitutional monarchy, a free press, and the gradual abolition of slavery, and quietly helping lay intellectual groundwork for Brazilian independence.

Back in London, the first Duke spent decades in the House of Lords opposing Tory governments, championing Catholic and Jewish emancipation, and fighting the slave trade, before rising to Grand Master of the united English freemasons and president of the Royal Society. He married twice in defiance of the Royal Marriage Act, was disowned by convention both times, and was buried not at Windsor but in a public cemetery at Kensal Green, a rebel, as Maxwell puts it, to the end.

Set against that record, the modern Sussex saga — Megxit, Netflix and Spotify deals, an Oprah special, a stream of tabloid skirmishes — looks less like history repeating and more like a very reduced echo of it. Maxwell’s essay was making a sharper point than nostalgia for a more serious aristocracy: it was a reminder that titles inherited from history carry stories most of their current holders never bother to learn, and that the first Duke of Sussex, for all his scandal by the standards of his own time, left behind an actual legacy, in Portugal, in Brazil, in the House of Lords, that outlasted the gossip about him by two centuries.

Whether the present Duke and Duchess, back on British soil after their long California interlude, will be remembered for anything with comparable weight is an open question. For now, the Cotswolds will have to do what the Palácio das Necessidades once did for the first Duke of Sussex: provide a place to wait out estrangement from the family firm.

Putting Harry’s and Meghan’s Interview in Context: The Dukes of Sussex

Exports, Alliances, and Ukraine: The Politics Behind France’s Arms Sales

08/28/2026

Paris – France won €21.2 billion ($24.7 billion) of export orders for weapons in 2025, helped by India’s contract for 26 Rafale fighter jets and related armaments, the annual report of the armed forces ministry to parliament said.

That 2025 value fell slightly from foreign arms orders of €21.6 billion in the previous year.

“With €21.2 billion of orders, the 2025 order book crosses the €20 billion threshold for the second consecutive year, indicating the full support of the state as well as companies,” the introduction to the 144-page report said.

The Indian order for the Rafale came into effect in 2025, with aircraft accounting for some 40 pct of foreign orders, the report said. The naval sector accounted for some 19 pct, missiles 18 pct, and land weapons 12 pct. Radar and communication systems won two pct of orders.

French missile deals with client nations rose 15 pct in 2025 compared to 2024, the strongest growth of any category, the report said. European Union member states accounted for some 27 pct of orders, in line with the average annual 26 pct from 2022 to 2025, the report said.

Asia was the most buoyant market for French arms, accounting for some 43 pct of 2025 orders, up from 23 pct in 2024, while European nations outside the 27-strong European Union took some nine pct. The Middle East accounted for around six pct, the report said.

Denmark last year placed the first export order for the Franco-Italian SAMP/T new generation surface-to-air missile, which the report authors hailed as an “historic choice,” seen as opening up other opportunities. That ground-based air defense system is effectively pitched as a European alternative to the highly sought after U.S. Patriot missile. European contractors MBDA and Thales upgraded the SAMP/T NG with a “multi-layered” capability of medium-range Aster 30 and short-range Mica vertical launch missiles, and GF 300 radar.

The 2025 deals of less than €200 million rose to €7 billion, up €1 billion, the report said, pointing up the importance of service contracts, training, and small and medium enterprises.

The introduction to the ministerial report carried an official photo of the French armed forces minister, without giving the minister’s name – Catherine Vautrin – or that of her Greek counterpart – Nikos Dendias – who accompanied her. The caption said the French minister was on a visit to Greece, with the Greek navy’s Kimon frigate at the dockside.

French shipbuilder Naval Group built that frigate at its Lorient factory, western France, with the Greek navy christening it Kimon, the name of the admiral in ancient Greece who sailed in the Salamis naval battle, which sank the Persian warships.

Rafale orders in 2024 helped push the value of French arms exports above the €20 billion mark that year, with fighter deals signed with Indonesia and Serbia. An order from the Netherlands for attack submarines that year also helped lift the French order book.

The armed forces ministry posted the arms export report Aug. 12, 2026, on its website.

France and UK Rally Round Ukraine

News of arms deals moved above the fold Aug. 24, when the U.K. Prime Minister, the newly installed Andy Burnham, brought to Kyiv top secret blueprints of British components of the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missile, to hand over to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Those classified blueprints allow Ukraine to build the European weapon, intended to increase capability to strike deep into Russia. London and Paris had shipped that long-range weapon to Kyiv, and those two allies showed trust in Ukraine to build the missile locally.

Burnham was supporting a “joint offer” made just a few days before by French President Emmanuel Macron, said Camille Grand, secretary general of the Association of Security and Defence, a European trade association based in Brussels.

That move to local production in Ukraine raised the question of “what can be built locally,” he said, as complex technology was involved. Ukraine is seeking to develop arms with allies, such as Fire Point, the Ukrainian company which developed the Flamingo cruise missile.

European companies could build industrial partnerships with Ukrainian firms, he said, while pointing out a British firm worked differently from a French company, which differed from a German firm, as European companies had distinct management styles.

An Aug. 25 editorial of French afternoon daily Le Monde called on European allies to increase support to Ukraine, pointing out the “inconsistency” of U.S. President Donald Trump, who had pledged in early July to grant Kyiv licences to build the Patriot, then withdrawing that offer at the end of the same month.

“If Europe wants to preserve peace on its continent, safeguard democratic values and ensure future prosperity, it has no choice but to continue supporting Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskiy,” Le Monde said in its leader. “They must even intensify their commitment to prevent Vladimir Putin from exploiting time to his advantage.”

European commitment was important as Moscow was testing European Nato members militarily, the Ukraine war was at the bottom of French public concerns, and “this crucial issue” would vanish in next year’s presidential election campaign, said the leader writer.

France and Ukraine Outline Arms Deals

Foreign sale was important in the French business model, as “export success reduces unit cost for the French,” said Paul Taylor, senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.

France planned to ship to Ukraine 100 Rafale fighters, and license local production of Scalp missiles and AASM bombs, Macron and Zelenskiy said in a July 14 joint statement. Kyiv also planned to order four SAMP/T NG systems, to be funded by the Ukraine Support Loan and other sources of financing.

“France and Ukraine agree to prioritize projects that enhance Ukraine’s combat aviation and air and anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities,” the French and Ukrainian leaders said.

That Ukraine support loan is the European Union €90 billion funding approved in April, to give financial support to Kyiv this year and next. Some €60 billion is earmarked for military aid and €30 billion for economic help.

“France and Ukraine concluded a roadmap planning for Kyiv’s acquisition of 16 Rafale,” Dassault Aviation said in a July 22 statement with its first-half financial results. Dassault builds the Rafale fighter.

Those 16 Rafale were the first batch of the 100-strong Rafale fleet Kyiv planned “for acquisition,” the Elysée joint statement said. An initial four Rafale will go to Ukraine once Ukrainian pilots and mechanics were trained, with training starting this year.

“This immediate training will enable the deployment of this first capability in Ukraine as soon as possible,” the joint statement said.

Those Rafale will follow the French-built Mirage 2000-5 fighters Paris said in 2024 it was sending to Ukraine. Ukraine signed June 30 a contract for 16 Gripen E in a deal worth $2.54 billion, with the Swedish aircraft builder Saab expecting to deliver the fighters in 2029-2030.

The French AASM bombs, laser-guided anti-drone rockets, Mica and Meteor missiles will be delivered to Ukraine in line with “operational deployment of the aircraft,” the statement said. Bilateral technical teams will decide the armaments to be shipped with each Rafale.

France will authorize AASM bombs and Scalp missiles to be built in Ukraine before the end of the year, allowing assembly to start “as soon as possible,” the statement said.

Ukraine will order radars including five GM 400, one GF 300, and one Kronos, with the procurement covered by the support loan, the statement said. The five GM 400 radars will be delivered before the end of 2027.

The pressing need of the Ukrainian forces could be seen with France committing to deliver the SAMP/T NG system “as soon as possible,” with Paris sending two anti-missile systems to Ukraine as a stop gap while the new systems were built. Kyiv would return those two systems once the new SAMP/T NG systems were delivered.

The deployment of the new SAMP/T NG will be progressive, depending on delivery and qualification of modules starting in 2027, the statement said. France and Italy will speed up delivery of an “agreed number” of Aster 30 missiles by October 2026.

Paris and Rome will also authorize licensed local production of the Aster 30 before the end of this year, with production to start – again – as soon as possible.

Paris also supports Kyiv’s Freya project, namely development of a low-cost missile to intercept incoming missiles. This was through “facilitating” industrial cooperation with French companies, and support from the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA) procurement office, the statement said.

Safran, a French company, builds the AASM powered smart bomb, while MBDA, a European company, builds Mica, Meteor, Scalp and its U.K. equivalent, Storm Shadow.

Greeks Bearing Orders

France is more committed to Greece than any other European country, said Taylor of the European Policy Centre. There is French positioning in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a strategic alliance with Greece, supporting Cyprus and Lebanon, while containing Turkey.

Greece is a key client nation for French first-rank warships and potential further fighter deals.

Athens took up an option to order a fourth French-built Frigate for Defense and Intervention (FDI) warship for the Hellenic Navy, shipbuilder Naval Group said Nov. 17, 2025.

That option was part of Athens’ 2022 order for three FDI vessels, in a deal reported to be worth some €3 billion.

Athens’ order for frigates built in Lorient, western France, meant work for Greek companies.

“With this fourth FDI HN, Naval Group has committed to further expanding the integration of Greek companies into its international industrial strategy, reaching 25 pct the value of FDI HN4 in local content,” the French shipbuilder said in its Nov. 17 statement.

Paris has sought to persuade Athens to sell around 10 of the Greek air force Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine, and replace those with the Rafale, business daily Les Echos reported April 24. The Rafale was modern but was more expensive to fly than the Mirage, and there was Greek concern over a fighter gap while waiting for Rafale delivery, the media report said.

Greece flies a 24-strong Rafale fleet, operates Mirage 2000-5, and also the F-16.

MBDA opened a permanent Athens office in 2023. Signing that office lease followed two Greek contracts won in 2022, one for weapons for a six-strong batch of Rafale for the air force, and weapons for the FDI fleet for the navy. Those MBDA deals followed a first 2021 contract with Athens, supplying weapons for 18 Rafale ordered for the Greek air force.

Tension has risen around the east Mediterranean, with Greek authorities advising commercial shipping bearing Greek flags to increase security measures, Reuters reported July 22. The shipping ministry advisory came after increased attacks by Ukraine and Russia on civilian ships and facilities in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, the agency reported.

The Greek air force sent up Rafale and F-16 fighters Aug. 18, in response to an alleged Turkish breach of Greek air space over the Aegean sea, with the Turkish air force flying F-16s, a CN-235 maritime patrol aircraft, and drones, specialist website Avions Legendaires reported Aug. 20.

Politics Behind Export Deals

The ministerial report pointed up the perceived importance of arms exports.

“Exports effectively contribute to the building of partnerships and alliances, responding to industrial challenges and have an impact on our operational cooperation,” the report said.

French political support was critical to securing deals.

“The strong commitment of the public authorities constitutes, in the eyes of the client nations, a mark of quality and credibility of the French offer,” the report said.

The report seeks to promote the importance of weapons, pointing out the arms industry employs 240,000 workers directly and indirectly, which the authors point out is the same number as the French car sector.

There is a breakdown of jobs by region, showing the density of employment, the importance of weapons manufacturers and the kit – fighter, missiles, artillery, and tanks – providing employment in the region.

Other big arms deals sealed last year included Indonesia’s order for two Scorpene Evolved attack submarines, orders from Slovenia and Croatia for Caesar artillery, and Scorpion armored vehicles for Belgium and Luxembourg.

France hit the highest value of annual export orders in 2022 with €26.9 billion of deals, with the United Arab Emirates signing for 80 Rafale and related weapons.

The USMC as an Impact Force: From Crisis Management to Chaos Management

08/27/2026

The post-Cold War period shaped a Marine Corps optimized for the wrong war. Built around a “crisis management” paradigm — one that assumed sanctuary, permissive logistics, and a knowable adversary, the Corps found itself increasingly cast as a maritime bus service for land-centric CENTCOM operations. The threat environment has since moved on, and so has the Marine Corps.

What is unfolding now, accelerated by Force Design 2030 and its 2025 update, is something more fundamental than a reorganization. It is a reconceptualization of what the Marine Corps is for.

The emerging paradigm is what I call chaos management and the distinction matters enormously. Crisis management assumed discrete events with identifiable beginnings and ends, a political decision space that permitted measured response, and a logistics tail that operated in relative safety. Chaos management assumes none of that. Zero sanctuary.

Persistent competition across gray zones where peace and war are not sequential states but simultaneous ones. Decision cycles compressed to machine speed. In this environment, the Marine Corps is not waiting for a crisis to respond to. It is already inside the adversary’s weapons engagement zone (WEZ), operating as a sensing and targeting layer that enables the entire Joint Force to function.

The Impact Force: Beyond Inside Force

The concept of the “Inside Force”, surviving within an adversary’s threat rings, was a necessary first framing. But it was geographically defined, and geography alone does not generate operational effect. The “Impact Force” concept moves beyond positional logic toward effect generation. The question is no longer where the force is. It is what the force enables.

That shift carries five concrete implications.

  1. First, platform survival gives way to network viability, what must persist is the data flow, not any particular airframe or hull.
  2. Second, unit-level lethality gives way to system-level decision advantage, the goal is not to be the shooter but to make every Joint shooter more lethal.
  3. Third, self-sufficient combined arms gives way to Joint Force enablement, the MAGTF becomes the connective tissue of a wider kill web rather than a complete fighting force unto itself.
  4. Fourth, direct-fire emphasis gives way to deep sensor-shooter integration, cueing long-range Joint fires from distributed positions rather than expending organic missiles.
  5. Fifth, and most critically, the Marine Corps redefines its value proposition: not as a general-purpose force, but as the indispensable sensing and targeting layer of the Joint Kill Web.

Brigadier General Christopher Haar, Assistant Deputy Commandant for Combat Development and Integration, made this point with unusual candor. Force Design began, in his telling, as primarily about killing ships. The Campaign of Learning revealed something different: the Corps is more effective as the “Joint JTAC” for the theater, the eyes and ears that allow the Navy and Air Force to apply their magazine depth with precision. That is the foundational logic of the 2025 Force Design Update, and it represents a more honest reckoning with the Corps’ comparative advantage than any number of capability inventories.

Force Design 2030: A Campaign of Learning, Not a Blueprint

What distinguishes the current transformation from previous iterations of Marine Corps reform is the institutional commitment to treating Force Design as a living document rather than a fixed blueprint. The October 2025 update formalized three course corrections that field experimentation had already made necessary and the willingness to make them in public is itself a signal worth noting.

The retention of the 4th Marine Regiment, originally slated for conversion, preserved the Corps’ globally responsive capacity against the risk of Indo-Pacific over-specialization. The restoration of breaching and gap-crossing capabilities acknowledged a truth that field experimentation confirmed: littoral maneuver is not purely maritime. Physical terrain inside the WEZ remains an unforgiving barrier, and the capabilities divested along with tanks turned out to be operationally necessary. And the pivot from organic shooter to networked sensor, prioritizing C2 modernization and high-fidelity data sharing over magazine depth, codified what the Campaign of Learning had been demonstrating repeatedly: that in a kill web architecture, the sensing function is the scarce and decisive contribution.

This is the difference between intelligent mass and exquisite scarcity applied at the doctrinal level. The Corps is not trying to replicate the deep magazines of the Navy or the long-range strike of the Air Force. It is building the distributed, survivable, and digitally integrated sensing layer that allows those Joint assets to operate at full effect.

That is a different kind of mass, persistent presence and high-quality data, rather than organic lethality.

Steel Knight 25: Proof of Concept Under Pressure

Steel Knight 25 was the full-scale operational test of these ideas under conditions as close to actual chaos as a large exercise can generate. The critical departure from legacy exercises was the abandonment of the “Force Closure” model, the assumption that there is a secure window to aggregate combat power before the fight begins. Distributed Entry Operations replaced it. Forces dispersed immediately, fought as a networked entity from the onset of competition, and linked embassy reinforcement, Noncombatant Evacuation Operations, and distributed fires into a continuous operational flow across the Southwest United States.

The most operationally significant insight to emerge from SK25 was what Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert Hedelund, serving as a senior mentor, called “Timestamped Nodes.” In an environment where a 32-second radio transmission invites lethal retribution within minutes, every command node must be treated as a temporal asset with an inherent shelf life. When the timestamp expires, the node moves — regardless of whether the mission is complete. Survivability is a function of movement and signature control, not hardening. That is a profound cultural shift for an institution historically oriented toward holding terrain.

The 32-second transmission rule is not a tactical detail. It is the binding metric of the entire Impact Force concept. Every communications architecture, every C2 design choice, every sensor-to-shooter pipeline must be built around it.

Aviation as the Kill Web’s Connective Tissue

Marine Aviation is the Impact Force multiplier, and Project Eagle, the aviation transformation blueprint, reflects that reality. The transition runs across three horizons: Fight Tonight (2026–2030), focused on immediate digital interoperability across the current fleet; Bridge the Gap (2031–2035), introducing collaborative combat aircraft and advanced autonomous systems; and Future Fight (2036–2040), realizing the full potential of a data-driven, autonomous, and networked air arm. What ties all three together is the shift from a platform-centric model to an impact-centric one.

Two operational concepts carry the weight of this transformation. Distributed Aviation Operations (DAO) applies a Hub-Spoke-Node taxonomy to complicate adversary targeting by dispersing assets across austere and shifting sites. Decision-Centric Aviation Operations (DCAO), the aviation contribution to Project Dynamis, shifts focus from platform performance to data-centric warfighting, using AI/ML to close kill webs at machine speed. HMLA-267, with its H-1 platforms evolved from legacy shooters into digital C2 gateways, is the proof-of-concept unit for this revolution.

The hidden center of gravity in all of this is Aviation Ground Support now formalized as the Seventh Function of Marine Aviation. AGS provides the fuel, maintenance, and airfield services from shifting and austere sites that allow the wing to sustain presence inside the WEZ without the sanctuary of fixed bases. Without robust AGS, the entire distributed posture collapses. It is the unglamorous foundation on which the Impact Force rests, and it deserves considerably more analytical attention than it typically receives.

The Kill Web and the Digital Backbone

The transition from kill chains to kill webs is not a slogan. It describes a fundamental change in the architecture of how fires are generated. In a kill chain, the process is linear and sequential, sensor to decision node to shooter, one step at a time. In a kill web, any vetted sensor can cue any available Joint shooter, and the network itself enables the connection. The Marine Corps’ role in that architecture is to be the forward-deployed, survivable sensing layer that feeds the web with high-fidelity targeting data.

The digital backbone enabling this is the DI/MANGL program — Digital Interoperability / MAGTF Agile Network Gateway Link — combined with the G-6 “Three Ways to Win” communications strategy: Link-16 for standardized tactical data exchange, military and commercial SATCOM (including Starlink) for resilient high-bandwidth connectivity, and unclassified networks for rapid movement of non-sensitive sensor data. The architecture is designed for redundancy precisely because the adversary will work to deny each pathway.

The fundamental tension in all of this is between connectivity and electromagnetic signature. Speed of communication is the ultimate tactical enabler and it is also a targeting beacon. The 32-second transmission rule encapsulates that tension. The solution is not to communicate less, but to communicate smarter, faster, and from positions that are already moving before the adversary can respond.

The Binding Constraints: Logistics and Mission Command

Two constraints threaten to undermine the Impact Force concept regardless of how well the doctrinal architecture is designed.

The first is the logistics gap. SK25 commanders were direct about it: there is no doctrinal or technological substitute for the physical problem of sustaining forces across the distances of the Pacific in a contested environment. The Marine Corps currently depends on Air Force C-130s, lift assets it does not organically control for the sustainment flows the Impact Force requires. Closing that gap demands urgent investment in the CH-53K, the KC-130J, and maritime autonomous systems capable of operating in contested waters. This is not a capability wish list. It is the operational prerequisite for everything else.

The second constraint is cultural rather than material, and in some respects harder to solve. Data indicates that 78.8% of aviation mishaps are attributable to human factors. That statistic is a window into a deeper problem: the temptation, when rich data links allow senior commanders to see the tactical fight in real time, is to exercise centralized oversight at the expense of the tactical edge. That is the delegation dilemma, and it is a terminal risk to the Impact Force model. Chaos management requires Mission Command, the genuine delegation of authority and the cultural acceptance of risk at the forward node. If a Marine lieutenant must wait for rear-echelon approval before acting on a fleeting targeting opportunity, the decision advantage that AI/ML and digital gateways provide is squandered in the latency of the approval chain.

Conclusion: The Standard of Strategic Relevance

The Marine Corps has successfully identified its role in the emerging strategic environment: not as a general-purpose force waiting for the next crisis, but as the indispensable sensing and targeting layer of the Joint Kill Web. That is a coherent and operationally grounded answer to the question of what the Corps is for in an age of peer competition.

What distinguishes the current transformation from past reform cycles is the institutional discipline to treat Force Design as a learning process rather than a finished product. The willingness to restore breaching capabilities, retain the 4th Marines, and pivot from shooter to sensor, all in response to field evidence rather than theoretical commitment, reflects the kind of adaptive institutional culture that peer competition will demand. The Campaign of Learning is itself the doctrine.

The standard of strategic relevance in the age of chaos is simple to state and brutally difficult to meet: the ability to see, decide, and enable the Joint Force inside the adversary’s weapons engagement zone, under persistent threat, without sanctuary.

The Marine Corps is building toward that standard.

Whether it gets there before the logistics gap and the delegation dilemma erode the concept from within is the open question that the next phase of the Campaign of Learning will have to answer.

Building the Impact Force: Marine Corps Transformation in an Age of Chaos