Poland Two Years into the War: An April 2024 Update

04/07/2024

By Robbin Laird

Recently, I talked with my colleague Robert Czulda by video link to get an update on the situation in Poland two years into the war in Ukraine.

We started by discussing the war seem from Warsaw.

Czulda: “When the Russian invasion first started, there was shock in the Polish public and much concern. But with the Ukrainians successfully turning the Russians back the public perception was to live with the war but being very wary of  the persistence of the Russians and what it means for Europe.

“Now two years later there is increased concern with the Russian versus Ukrainian capabilities and the government is increasingly concerned about the defense of Poland and of Europe against the Russian actions in Ukraine and their possible expansion.

“One response to the Russian threat has been increasingly concerned to put in place various direct defense measures, including restoring the underground bunkers built in the cold war and the possbuty of mining the border.”

Czulda has recently written a piece for us which focuses on tensions between Ukraine and Poland over the grain issue which does highlight the uncertainty of where Ukraine “fits” into Eruope either as possible member of the EU or of NATO.

And I would add that the efforts of the Nordics on defense integration as well as working the Baltic states in Poland has seen a kind of differentiation within Europe of states which see Russia as a direct threat in the near and mid-term and those European states which have expressed much less concern or commitment to enhancing their defense efforts.

I asked him about the challenge for Poland in term s of integrating their various arms effots into a more integrated force.

And he clearly indicated that this is a major challenge.

We then discussed the possibility of a cease fire in Ukraine to re-work the Western situation with regard to Ukraine. He saw that as a possibility but worried that Western leaders would take any pause as an end state whereas Putin would use the pause to re-organize for the next phase of the war in Europe.

But there is a clear danger that the much larger Russian state working with its authoritarian allies or states trading with Russia and generating revenue for them such as India would empower them to grab more Ukrainian territory and then positioning themselves to have a buffer zone from which they could expand their aggressive poicy towards Europe as a whole.

So what is the situation in Poland today?

Obviously, the Ukrainian immigration poses a challenge but the economic situation has in Czulda’s view improved over what is was at the beginning of war. Inflation is down but the pressure on Polish living conditions is substantial, such as in the housing market.

To quote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Europe is entering a ˜prewar” era, cautioning that the continent is not ready and urging European countries to step up defence investment. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It’s real and it started over two years ago.”1

Credit Graphic: Bigstock

1 Lili Bayer, Europe must get ready for looming war, Donald Tusk warns, The Guardian, 30 March 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/29/europe-must-get-ready-for-looming-war-donald-tusk-warns

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Poland

The Russo-Ukrainian War After One Year: A Central and Eastern European Perspective

 

 

 

 

USS John L. Canley (ESB 6) Commissioning

04/05/2024

Future USS John L. Canley (ESB 6) will be commissioned Feb 17th 2023 aboard Naval Air Station, North Island. ESB6 is named after SGT Major John L. Canley who was awarded the Medal of Honor for his actions during the Vietnam war at the battle for Hue.

02.17.2024
Courtesy Video
Navy Production Division – Defense Media Activity

31st MEU Trains for Maritime Interdiction

04/03/2024

U.S. Marines with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, simulate firefights to extract detainees and gain control of the vessel during a visit, board, search and seizure exercise aboard the USS Miguel Keith (ESB 5), in the Philippine Sea, Feb. 7, 2024.

The training refines Marines’ skills in maritime interdiction by incorporating real world scenarios from room clearing to hostage rescue.

The 31st MEU is operating aboard ships of the America Amphibious Ready Group in the 7th fleet area of operations, the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free a region.

USS MIGUEL KEITH (ESB 5), PHILIPPINE SEA
02.07.2024
Video by Cpl. Juan Maldonado
31st Marine Expeditionary Unit

The Global Partnership Supporting Arms For Ukraine: Secretary of State Blinken Visits France

04/02/2024

By Pierre Tran

Versailles, France – The U.S. defense industry had much to gain if Congress approved swiftly a stalled $61 billion package of military and financial aid for Ukraine, in its fight against “Russian aggression,” the American secretary of state said April 2.

Antony Blinken was speaking at the side of the armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, who had invited the top U.S. diplomat to the French head office of KNDS, which builds the Caesar truck-mounted artillery shipped to the Ukraine army.

The request by U.S. president Joe Biden for Congressional approval should be approved “as quickly as possible,” as Ukraine was at a “critical moment,” Blinken said.

“Virtually all the money requested by Ukraine for defense will be invested in the United States to produce what is needed,” he said. This allowed “building back and strengthening the (U.S.) defense industrial base,” such as European allies were doing as they sent military support to Kyiv.

Support from the global partnership, which included the U.S., European and other allies, was “truly extraordinary,” with the partner nations sending artillery, munitions, and air defense, allowing Kyiv to resist “Russian aggression,” he said.

But the fight back against the Russian incursion is entering its third year, amid concern a Ukrainian counter-offensive has largely failed and Russian forces were overwhelming Ukraine, which suffers from expiring ammunition stocks and waning Washington support.

A lack of Congressional backing meant Ukrainian forces were running out of shells, ammunition, and other vital military means.

There is also concern among some European leaders that re-election of former president Donald Trump might lead to further weakness of political and military support for Ukraine, and ultimately a victory for the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin.

Republicans have held up the aid package for Ukraine, calling for moves against crossings on the Mexican-U.S. border and spending cuts.

Blinken and Lecornu gave a brief, highly televisual news conference in a showroom of KNDS, speaking in front of a Caesar 155 mm 52 caliber cannon, mounted on a six-wheel Renault truck chassis, with nearby a display of 155 mm shells.

Lecornu warmly welcomed Blinken’s visit to the French head office of KNDS, which the minister said was at “the heart of the artillery coalition,” led by France and co-led by the U.S. to back the Ukrainian resistance against Russia.

There were mostly television crews covering that press conference, with a U.S. official asking the five Paris-based reporters and correspondents to move aside to make room for American journalists accompanying Blinken. The request was politely declined.

Blinken went on to return to the capital, where he met the French foreign minister, Stephane Sejourne, and then went on to meet the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

Lecornu declined to give a brief question-and-answer session to the pack of television crews, which followed him to the ministerial convoy of official cars and police motorbikes.

The minister’s televisual reach out to the national and foreign press follows Macron’s recent policy switch in giving highly vocal military support for Kyiv, in contrast to previous efforts to persuade Putin to a peaceful pact with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

A March 21 black-and-white photo of Macron in boxing gear and working out on a punching bag sparked speculation the French commander in chief was sending a pugilistic message to his Russian counterpart.

Caesar to Ukraine

Denmark has sent 19 Caesars to Ukraine, with France sending initially 30. Paris has also sent 21 reconditioned TRF1 155 mm towed artillery, with a reported range of 25-30 km. A specialist company, S2M Equipment, reconditioned the guns before they were shipped to Ukraine, France Bleu radio reported.

France ordered a further six Caesars to send to Ukraine, part of a total order for 78 of the French-built artillery pieces pledged by the artillery coalition backing Kyiv.

“The funding is in place,” a source close to the artillery order said.

All the 78 cannon-truck systems are to be delivered this year, the source said. That delivery schedule reflects faster production of the Caesar.

KNDS previously built two Caesar artillery systems per month before the Russian attack on Ukraine, and output has since risen to six per month, and the target is to build 12 per month.

The aim to hit that rate of 12 per month in a year’s time, with much depending on the supply chain, the source said.

Nexter, the French company in the KNDS venture with German partner Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, builds the Caesar cannon barrel at its Bourges factory, central France.

The French company has the specialist kit to build the Nato standard 155 mm shell at its factory at La Chapelle Saint-Ursin, near Bourges, and is due to add a second facility in the next few weeks. A third facility due to open in Belgium next year, seeking to boost production of artillery shells for French and Ukrainian stocks.

The company is installing a specialist machine tool which allows a soft metal to be applied to the shell. The metal expands in the cannon tube, to boost the kinetic energy to deliver the shell to a critical 40 km range.

That range, greater than the Russian artillery, gives operational advantage, the source said.

Caesar is the “flagship of French artillery,” army general Jean-Michel Guilloton told the news conference. Guilloton heads the artillery coalition, which numbers some 23 nations.

The 78-strong order of cannons is financed by France, Denmark, Ukraine, and allies in the artillery coalition, he said. The Caesar has “operational superiority” with a range of 40 km, he said, with high accuracy, mobility, and stealth. There was a choice of shells which gave a variety of “tactical effects.”

The artillery met Nato standards and is certified by the French arms procurement office, he said. There was support, which includes training of artillery officers, munitions, spare parts, and maintenance. Industrial partnerships were needed for local production and maintenance.

France supports the Czech initiative to supply Ukraine with 800,000 shells, with France supplying 3,000, with the aim of delivering 80,000 shells in 2024, he said. There was need to build the industrial capacity for shells in Nato countries and Europe, particularly, he said.

“Obviously we will welcome every support in this area,” he said.

The leading objective was to meet the urgent needs of Ukraine, he said Jan. 25 on the website of the French armed forces ministry.

It was necessary to “counterbalance” the six-to-one advantage of the Russian forces, namely for every six Russian shells hitting Ukrainian positions, the Ukrainians can only return fire with one shell, he said. The second urgent need was to provide service support, repairing broken equipment.

The long term requirement was to build a future Ukrainian artillery and make it compatible with Nato standards, he said. That called for a “real transformation” as many Ukrainian cannons dated back to the Soviet era.

Nexter received orders worth €1.5 billion last year, said a slide that Lecornu showed at a March 26 news conference on the war economy and French support for Ukraine.

Guilloton commands the artillery coalition, which Lecornu launched on Jan. 18. The allied operational coalitions for Ukraine comprise air capabilities, maritime security, ground-based air defense, armor, and artillery.

Blinken is bilingual as he spent his childhood in Paris and went to a noted bilingual school before going back to the U.S. to study at Harvard and Columbia law school.

Lecornu also studied law, at the Panthéon Assas school, Paris university, and is a colonel in the reserve of the gendarmerie nationale police force.

Nexter and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann are partners of the Franco-German KNDS venture.

Credit Graphic:Photo 132349778 | France Us © motortion | Dreamstime.com

Autonomous Warrior 2023

04/01/2024

ONR and its international arm, ONR Global, participated in the recent Autonomous Warrior 2023 (AW23) exercise, located at HMAS Creswell in Jervis Bay, Australia.

AW23 brought together Australian military allies, as well as industry and international partners, to demonstrate various technologies designed to help the Royal Australian Navy strengthen its capabilities in the area of undersea warfare.

AUSTRALIA
11.01.2023
Video by Michael Walls
Office of Naval Research

DeGaulle, France and the War Economy: A March 2024 Update

03/29/2024

By Pierre Tran

Paris – The two French frigates on patrol in the Red Sea have fired 22 Aster missiles against drones and ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi militia against western shipping, the armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, told March 26 a high profile news conference.

The minister disclosed the number of French naval missiles, which included the Aster 30 anti-ballistic missile weapon, to point up the significance of a recent French order for 200 surface-to-air missiles from MBDA, a European missile maker.

“In the Red Sea, since the French navy has deployed to secure the maritime space from the launch of drones, and even ballistic missiles, by the Houthis, the French navy has fired 22 Aster 30 – and Aster 15,” he said, pointing up that the Aster weapon has not previously been fired in combat.

Information on the number of Aster missiles held in stock is withheld. A reported unit price of some €1 million is a credible estimate, an industry executive said.

Faster delivery and higher production of weapons were key themes of Lecornu’s remarks, with slides showing the large amounts to go to the prime contractors, now on a tighter schedule.

“Everyone has been asking for the last two years why can we not build more quickly, why can we not deliver weapons to Ukraine more quickly,” he said.

“Quite simply, industry loses muscle fibre very quickly and takes time to recover.”

France is paying for lack of past investment, he said.

The administration of president Emmanuel Macron actively seeks to restock French forces, deliver arms and ammunition to Ukraine, while supporting a critical export drive to sell French weapons in the world market.

The news conference can be seen as a ministerial effort to “counterbalance” quiet criticism of the government.

Macron evoked a “war economy” two years ago at the opening of the Eurosatory trade show for land weapons in response to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, seeking to seize Kyiv.

The Macron administration has urged industry to work faster and ship in greater volume, while French arms companies waited for contracts, asking for the money to be shown.

Companies have speeded up the delivery schedule, following a number of contracts signed late last year.

The minister held the press conference, titled Industrial Reinforcement: Armaments and Munitions, in the large Valin auditorium at the defense ministry at Balard, at the edge of the capital.

Requisition

Paris has been criticized for lack of disclosure and low military support for Ukraine, far below the U.S., Germany, the U.K., and other western allies, based on figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

That 22 figure was among the numbers the minister presented to the national and foreign press, as France seeks to re-stock its forces and back Ukraine, in a highly public way.

A key figure was the €413 billion in the 2024-2030 military budget law underpinning the orders for new and replacement kit for the French and Ukrainian forces.

Lecornu spoke of the legal option of the “requisition” of equipment, factory tools, and staff in industry to speed up building weapons. There are decisions due to be taken in the next few weeks on calling on some companies to hold a minimum stock level or to put priority on military orders over civil.

Government requisition appears in the military budget law adopted last July, and the minister’s news conference placed that measure, seen as controversial, in wider public debate.

“Priorization,” is a more acceptable term, the industry executive said, pointing up the problems small and medium companies have in meeting the faster timelines sought by the defense ministry. Those subcontractors find it difficult to track down raw materials and building up stocks, while using their own funds.

Those subcontractors have had difficulty in raising bank loans, with commercial banks under social pressure to cut off lending to arms manufacturers. The prime contractors gain from the big ticket orders, while the supply chain is struggling.

Lecornu also pointed to another key figure, namely €20 billion.

The €20 billion of 2023 arms orders compared to an annual average of €15 billion between 2017-2022, and €9.5 billion between 2012-2016, the minister said.

That €20 billion figure was not news. The defense ministry said in a Jan. 23 statement orders worth €20.3 billion had been made in 2023, of which almost €9 billion had been signed in December.

“Re-industrialization, modernization of our capabilities and rearmament of France: the first results are there,” the minister said in the Jan. 23 statement.

The ministry issued the press statement again on Feb. 1.

The 2023 orders included the latest batch of 52 Rafale fighter jets, 109 Caesar Mk 2 truck-mounted 155 mm 52 caliber artillery, 420 Serval light armored vehicles, and seven offshore patrol vessels.

On the industrial front, an example to avoid was the ending of French supply of gunpowder in 2007, he said. That led to France relying on shipments of gunpowder from Germany and northern Europe.

That sourcing policy has changed, with the state-owned Eurenco relocating its production of propellant for large-caliber shells to Bergerac, southwest France. The minister visited the new factory later in the day after the press conference, having rescheduled a previous visit planned for the end of February.

Build Faster

The need for speed could be seen with France losing competitions for weapons in Eastern Europe due to late deliveries rather than price, Lecornu told the news conference.

A new delivery schedule has been agreed with MBDA, with the minister showing a slide showing the missile maker shipping the MMP anti-tank missile and Mistral short-range, surface-to-air weapon this summer instead of the end of the year.

The MMP contract is for around 1,500 missiles, worth some €400 million, while the Mistral deal is for some 300 weapons, worth around €150 million.

A contract for around 200 Aster missiles, worth some €900, is due for delivery in the second half of this year instead of 2026.

A deal for 500 Mica new generation air-to-air missiles, worth some €700 million is for delivery in the second half of 2025 instead of the end of 2026.

An order for some 55,000 155 mm shells, worth around €600 million, for the Caesar cannon will be delivered this summer, instead of 2024-2030.

Some 600 AASM powered smart bombs are to be delivered this year, with some sent to Ukraine, and the target is to double total delivery to 1,200 in 2025, the minister said. There is also a request to MBDA to deliver 40 Scalp cruise missiles.

In addition to the present order for 200 Aster missiles, there is a further order of 200 Aster worth a total of almost €2 billion, he said.

The slides also showed the value of 2023 orders for the major companies, with the figures rounded up:

MBDA won $3 billion of deals, shipbuilder Naval Group €4 billion, and electronics company Thales €6 billion.

Light armored vehicle builder Arquus won €1 billion, medium and heavy armored vehicles maker Nexter €1.5 billion, Safran – builder of the powered smart bomb – €2 billion, shipyard Chantiers Atlantique €1.5 billion.

The annual production of 155 mm shells for the Caesar cannon solely for the French army will rise to 15,000 from annual output of 3,000 shells 2017-2022, and annual production of 500 shells 2012-2017, the slides showed.

Dassault Aviation will boost its production of the Rafale fighter to three per month this year compared to one per month previously.

Ammo Belts to Israel

Lecornu told journalists France had given approval for Israel to re-export ammunition links for 5.56 mm light machine guns to a third party, and the French export license did not give the Israel Defense Forces the right to use the equipment in Gaza or elsewhere.

The minister was speaking in response to a question on investigative website Disclose and partner Marsactu, based in Marseilles, south of France, reporting France had authorized last October shipment of links for cartridge belts to Israel.

There might have been shipments of minor equipment such as ball bearings, cooling systems, and sensor pads until recently, the minister said, and he has asked the French authorities to exercise greater scrutiny in the use of equipment.

“Some licenses could have been issued” for the Israeli Iron Dome missile, he said. As that intercepted incoming missiles, it protected civilians, he said, adding exports of components to Israel in 2022 were worth €15 million, or 0.2 percent of exports.

De Gaulle and Sovereignty

The minister opened his remarks with a broad overview of French arms policy, ranging from 1958 – the start of the Fifth Republic – to the peace dividend, and concluding on a close link between the late president Charles de Gaulle and strategic autonomy and sovereignty.

Senior officers including the joint chief of staff, chiefs of staff of the air force, army, and navy, and the head of the DGA arms procurement office, flanked Lecornu as he spoke at the high-visibility media event.

This was only the second time Lecornu gave a full press conference since his appointment as defense minister in May 2022, the successor to Florence Parly. The first time Lecornu held a press conference was February 2023, at the defense minister’s elegant office at Brienne House, speaking on the war economy and a plan for munitions.

There was a plethora of television crews at the news conference, and there were two announcements of headphones available for English for foreign correspondents. Senior parliamentarians took the seats, front and center.

The minister thanked the national and international press for attending in his opening remarks. Wrinkles in the white table cloth were carefully ironed out before the opening of the press conference, which went out live on an internet platform.

CLB 6 Conduct Test Flights in Norway of TRV-150

Group, prepare a Tactical Resupply Vehicle 150 (TRV-150) unmanned aircraft system for test flight operations in Setermoen, Norway, Feb. 6, 2024.

CLB-6 conducted test flights to study the performance and capabilities of the TRV-150 drone in artic climates to gain further familiarization with the system.

CLB-6 is in Norway, a part of Marine Rotational Forces Europe 24.1 which focuses on regional engagements throughout Europe by conducting various exercises, arctic cold-weather and mountain warfare training, and military-to-military engagements, which enhance overall interoperability of the U.S. Marine Corps with allies and partners.

SETERMOEN, NORWAY
02.06.2024
Video by Lance Cpl. Christian Salazar
2nd Marine Logistics Group

VMFA-542 arrives in Norway for Exercise Nordic Response 24

03/27/2024

U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II jets with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 542, 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, land in preparation for Exercise Nordic Response 24 in Norway, Feb. 16, 2024.

Exercise Nordic Response, formerly known as Cold Response, is a NATO training event conducted every two years to promote military competency in arctic environments and to foster interoperability between the U.S. Marine Corps and allied nations.

Exercise Nordic Response 24 is VMFA-542’s first overseas operational exercise as an F-35B Lightning II jet squadron.

NORWAY
02.15.2024
Video by Cpl. Rowdy Vanskike
2nd Marine Aircraft Wing