Robert Czulda
NATO member states must step up their defense efforts, as Russia continues to pose a threat that persists. The time gained through Ukraine’s resistance is being squandered – this was the prevailing view during Defence24Days in Warsaw, one of Europe’s largest defense-related conferences.
Throughout the event, held between May 6-7, 2024, in the Polish capital of Warsaw, numerous military officials, scientists, and analysts voiced their concerns. Discussants unanimously agreed – Russia remains a threat, and its magnitude hinges on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
NATO has played and will continue to play a crucial role, although Europe should enhance its independence.
This need arises from two fundamental reasons.
Firstly, the United States may be less willing to engage in Europe in the coming years due to ideological shifts (referring to isolationist sentiments in the United States).
Secondly, in the event of potential American involvement in a conflict with China, a natural consequence would be at least a partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Europe.
“The task of deterring Putin’s Russia is undoubtedly a task for NATO; the European Union will not be able to tackle it for many years to come,” stated Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.
He emphasized that Europeans, including Poles, expect the EU to ensure not only freedom of trade but also security.
Establishing a Commissioner for Defense requires treaty changes, which in Poland are sometimes portrayed as “an assault on Polish sovereignty.”
Sikorski added that “Europe has not only disarmed but also partly de-industrialized in the defense sector.. Ukraine has given us invaluable time; it’s been halfway through World War II already. The question is, are we making the most of this time?” he stated.
He also expressed a belief that because of this, Europe – “as the European pillar of NATO, but also as the European Union” – should be ready to take on certain tasks.
“We shouldn’t immediately call on the United States for every threat on our borders. If there’s an issue with some warlord in the Balkans, as the EU, we shouldn’t be entirely helpless. There are matters we should be able to handle, relieving the burden on the United States,” he argued.
Therefore, according to Sikorski, Poland should support the proposal to establish European rapid reaction forces.
One of the speakers was General Martin Herem, who has been the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces since 2018. He admitted that the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022 came as a surprise to many.
Few anticipated that Russia would actually resort to force. While such a scenario was considered, planners deemed it highly improbable.
The break out of war in Ukraine also revealed that neither Estonia nor NATO were prepared. “Winter has arrived, especially for Estonia,” he concluded.
The speaker argued that a primary objective is to build forces capable of “not just deterring the enemy but destroying it. We must prepare for decisive victory.”
However, it was noted that Russia’s quantitative advantage – such as being ten times stronger in artillery – poses a significant challenge, and NATO member states are doing too little to neutralize it.
According to General Herem and other discussants, the West is not doing enough because despite its rhetoric, it still does not believe in the reality of the threat.
One of the noted weaknesses of NATO is the lack of an offensive information operation.
In other words, the West is not conducting activities in the Russian infosphere aimed at internal Russian audiences.
Contrary to popular belief, the Russian disinformation campaign is effective.
An example is the increasing anti-Western sentiments in Africa, where the Russian narrative has many supporters.
On the technical side, the conference also addressed fortifications that are now being erected in Central and Eastern Europe.
For example, in January 2024, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia signed an agreement to construct bunkers on the border with Russia and Belarus, forming the so-called Baltic Defense Line. A total of 600 bunkers will be built, each capable of accommodating 10 people along with equipment.
The project is valued at roughly EUR 60 million, and construction work is scheduled to begin in January 2025.
NATO’s frontline states are increasingly discussing the possibility of fortifying the border with Russia.
According to General Waldemar Skrzypczak – former Polish Commander of the Land Forces and now a security expert – such fortifications along the borders are not meant for defending to the last soldier but to reduce the risk of being caught off guard.
Colonel Otokar Foltýn (Office of the President of the Czech Republic) added that the Russian army is not an equivalent rival to NATO, but this does not mean there are no issues. He considered the lack of political will to act as a fundamental problem.
The strength of Russia stems from the fact that “Europe slept and still sleeps,” he stated, “we still fail to understand that this is also our war.”
Colonel Foltýn concluded his remarks with a forecast – in his view, within a few months, we will witness acts of sabotage in Europe. Their effects may be minor, but their primary aim will be to achieve a psychological impact.
Unfortunately, in his view, the West is losing the psychological war with Russia.
Polish General Marek Tomaszycki – former Chief of Operational Command of the Armed Forces – agreed that a potential NATO war with Russia would be different from the one currently being waged by Ukraine against Russia.
Regarding conclusions, he stated that the war in Ukraine shows that while on the one hand, we must keep pace with technological advancements and introduce new, technically advanced equipment into service, it is also important to teach basic skills, including trench warfare or the use of simple equipment.
General Tomaszycki also addressed the issue of drones. As he stated, their effectiveness depends on electronic warfare systems, which are becoming increasingly effective.
Every piece of equipment that reaches Ukraine is regarded by Russia as particularly significant.
Russians attempt to acquire it to subsequently learn how to neutralize it.
Therefore, not everything can be given to the Ukrainians.
At the same time, General Tomaszycki warned against the scenario of an alternative security system forming around the core BRICS countries. This would pose a serious problem for the West by creating competition not only politically but also economically and militarily.
Featured Image: Generals, along with the Chief of the General Staff, taking part in Defence24 Days 2024.
Photo Credit. Defence24