By Pierre Tran
Paris – A surprise announcement from president Emmanuel Macron of the sale of the Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000-5 fighter jet to Ukraine has sparked political controversy and public debate over the arms deal.
The head of state said June 6 on live national television France would enter a “program of sale” of the single-engine fighter when his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, visited the French capital the next day.
French training of Ukrainian pilots would start in the next few days, and take five or six months, he said.
Macron was speaking on the sidelines of an international commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the allied assault on five Normandy beaches on D-Day June 6, 1944.
The French commander in chief, speaking the following day, withheld the number of Mirage 2000-5s to be sent to Ukraine, and the allied nations which would take part in a coalition dispatch of the French-built fighter.
“I will give you neither the name of the partners, nor the definitive number,” he said. “It is more effective and gives less visibility to the adversary.”
France would also train a brigade of Ukrainian troops, he said.
That called for training some 4,500 soldiers, and equipping them with French kit, a military engagement which certainly raised eyebrows and political opposition.
News of the Mirage for Ukraine drew dissent from Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN), the rebranded far-right political party formerly known as National Front (FN).
Macron showed “hunger for war,” she said June 7, accusing the French president of increasing pressure, which could lead to “escalation” in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Snap General Election
Macron again went on television two days later, formally calling for a surprise general election for the French parliament, and dissolution of the lower house National Assembly.
That was Macron’s response to Le Pen’s RN party comfortably leading that day’s election for the European Parliament, the elected arm of the European Union.
While opinion polls had predicted a comfortable lead for the RN in the European Parliament, Macron’s call for a French snap general election came as a political shock.
The first round of votes are due be held on June 30, followed by the second round on July 7, leading to appointment of a new prime minister. Macron will stay on as president.
Macron intended to rally opposition to the far right, and bolster the mainstream political parties, analysts said. But there was high risk the RN could win, perhaps appointing its party president, Jordan Bardella, 28, as prime minister, or holding a key coalition role.
“Yesterday’s (European Parliament) results lead to a political earthquake in France, not so much due to Le Pen’s National Rally’s (RN) spectacular win, which had long been foretold by pollsters, but because of President Macron’s subsequent call for snap elections,” said Célia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Centre for Foreign Relations, a think tank.
“If the RN were to gain majority or to form a governing coalition, France enters unchartered territories,” she said. “RN’s plans for Europe remain unsophisticated, unpolished and at times contradictory. France’s voice would probably get eclipsed for a while.”
If Le Pen’s party won the Matignon prime minister’s office, it was unlikely she would block the Mirage fighters to Ukraine, said Jean-Pierre Maulny deputy director of Institut des Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, a think tank.
“Macron is the president,” he said, and defense falls under the purview of the presidency.
Le Pen’s priority was to cut immigration, seen as a social issue, rather than military policy, which is a matter for the Elysées president’s office.
“This is below the radar” for her, he said.
A Mirage sale might be delayed if the RN came to power, he said, but the chances the deal would go ahead could be 55-45.
The RN party repaid a controversial loan held by a Russian company, Aviazapchast, daily Le Figaro reported last September.
That repayment stemmed from the €9 million RN borrowed from a Czech-Russian bank in 2014, to pay for Le Pen’s campaign for the French presidency in 2017. French banks had stayed clear of the RN, leading the party to borrow from the First Czech Russian Bank, she said. That Czech-Russian bank later folded.
The French stock market closed down 1.35 pct, with the CAC-40 share index trimming an opening 2 pct drop on Monday, the day after Macron’s call for general election. The euro fell 0.5 pct against the dollar and 0.55 pct against the pound, while the price of French 10-year government bonds also fell sharply.
T
he RN party won 31.4 percent of French votes in the European parliamentary election, beating Macron’s Renaissance party, which received some 14.6 percent, and the Socialists some 14 percent.
Mirage Flip
Meanwhile, Macron’s surprise Mirage-for-Ukraine announcement drew sharp criticism from specialist reporters who said on public social media and private messaging the French air force had said for months Ukrainian officers did not want the fighter, and there were too few units and logistical constraints.
“Now they will have to convince us the opposite,” a specialist reporter said on social media.
There was certainly official concern on the scarcity of Mirages in the French air force.
“We have few Mirage 2000s and service support would be highly challenging,” the armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, told the National Assembly in February, when asked about sending the fighter to Kyiv.
There is a view the French air force could part with six of its total fleet of 26 Mirage 2000-5s, leaving the service with a full squadron of 20 fighters. The service’s Cigogne fighter squadron would be severely depleted if more than six Mirages were sent to Kyiv, media reports said.
Ukraine, however, would need a larger Mirage squadron, to justify the logistical support, analysts said. The Ukrainian air force is getting ready to receive the Lockheed Martin F-16, and already services Mig and Sukhoi fighters, which date back to the Soviet era. Ground crews will need to be trained for distinct service of those fighters and the spares.
France flies its Mirage 2000-5 for air combat with the Mica missile, but the fighter can be adapted for ground attack.
The allied nations flying versions – and potential coalition donors – of the Mirage 2000-5 include Greece, India, and Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates operates the more advanced Mirage 2000-9.
The Ukrainian leader stopped over at Qatar June 5, on his way to France, business website La Tribune reported, and it would have been surprising if he had not discussed the Mirage with his counterpart, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. Doha is keen to find a buyer for the 12 Mirage 2000-5 flown by the Qatari air force, the media report said.
Greece flies its Mirage 2000-5 armed with the Scalp cruise missile for hitting ground targets. Paris and London have supplied Kyiv with Scalp and its British version, Storm Shadow. The Ukrainian Mig and Sukhoi fighters have been adapted to fire those long-range weapons.
Meanwhile, France was seen as needing to replace the Mirage 2000-5 sent to Ukraine with the Rafale, which would carry a hefty price tag. The Mirage 2000-5 was due to stay in service to 2030 with the French air force.
France flies 26 Mirage 2000-5s, operating from Luxeuil airbase, eastern France, and the Djibouti airbase, the French service said. They fly missions of air police and air defence, and have deployed several times over the Baltic nations – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – in the Nato enhanced air policing mission.
The Mirages operating from Djibouti shot down kamikaze drones flown out of Yemen by Houthi rebels, seeking to hit commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
France also flies a 48-strong fleet of Mirage 2000D fighters, with a midlife upgrade.
The Mirage 2000-5 flew in the allied Hamilton mission against Syria in 2017. Those fighters were reported to have flown from Luxeuil, as escort for the five Rafale fighters carrying Scalp missiles, two AWACS spy planes, and six C-135 air tankers for inflight refuelling.
“I’m sure that a day will come when Ukraine will see the same jets in our skies that we saw in Normandy skies yesterday,” Zelenskiy told French lawmakers June 7, referring to the international commemoration of the D-Day landing on the Normandy beaches – Gold, Juno, Omaha, Sword, and Utah.
Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged to send F-16s to Ukraine, in response to the Ukraine’s request for 120-130 Western fighters to counter the Russian assault. Washington has authorized the transfer.
Featured Photo:Mirage 2000-5 jet fighter cockpit close-up. Republic of China mirage 2000-5 jet fighter.Photo taken on:July 19th, 2014 in Taichung,Taiwan.