By Robbin Laird
The 2019 International Fighter Conference in Berlin brought together military leaders and industry representatives from nations living in the shadow of authoritarian powers. Their presentations, focused on airpower strategies for self-defense against existential threats from Russia and China, now read like a prophetic warning of conflicts to come. What seemed like contingency planning in 2019 became brutal reality just three years later.
Ukraine: From Deterrence to Actual War
Lieutenant General Vasyl Chernenko’s 2019 presentation on “Peculiarities of Employment Fighter Aviation” described Ukraine’s experience with Russian hybrid warfare following the 2014 seizure of Crimea. He spoke of the “sabotage-terrorist nature of the enemy’s actions” and the need for Ukrainian fighter aircraft to confront Russian air defense systems moved forward into contested areas.
His analysis proved devastatingly prescient. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine faced exactly the scenarios Chernenko had outlined but magnified exponentially. The limited pilot training and “very limited” readiness of Ukraine’s legacy MiG-29s and Su-27s that he described became critical vulnerabilities when facing the full weight of Russian airpower.
The general’s emphasis on the need for Western counter-insurgency capabilities and airpower support foreshadowed the massive international military aid effort that would emerge. His warning that any Western assistance would trigger Russian “fake news” campaigns proved accurate, as Moscow’s disinformation apparatus worked overtime to frame NATO support as escalatory aggression.
Most remarkably, Chernenko’s focus on Ukraine’s need to “buy time for partners and allies to plug into one’s defensive system” became the fundamental strategy that allowed Ukraine to survive the initial assault and mount an effective resistance.
Lithuania: The Information Warfare Frontline
Colonel Dainius Guzas’s presentation on “Developing Capability Against a Peer Opponent” highlighted Lithuania’s dual challenge: direct Russian threats and sophisticated political warfare designed to undermine NATO cohesion. His documentation of Russian airspace violations and “fake news” campaigns targeting Lithuanian confidence in NATO allies provided an early warning of hybrid warfare tactics that would intensify dramatically.
The Baltic Air Policing mission that Guzas described as Lithuania’s window into NATO interoperability became a crucial proving ground. When tensions escalated following Russia’s 2022 invasion, the experience gained through hosting diverse NATO air forces proved invaluable for rapid coalition operations.
Guzas’s emphasis on the political dimension of airpower or how Russian disinformation sought to weaponize every NATO flight over Baltic airspace presaged the information warfare that would accompany kinetic operations in Ukraine. His insights into how authoritarian powers use political warfare to complement military pressure became a template for understanding broader Russian strategy.
Taiwan: The Growing Shadow
The presentations from Colonel Li-Chiang Yuan and Dr. Yu-Jiu Wang on Taiwan’s defense challenges have only grown more relevant. Yuan’s description of the People’s Republic of China’s “encirclement challenge” through South China Sea militarization has accelerated dramatically since 2019.
His concept of “multiple deterrence” which is the need for integrating active defense, air defense, and resilient ground forces anticipated the “porcupine strategy” that has become central to Taiwan’s defense planning. The emphasis on operating aircraft from highways and dispersed locations, inspired by Finnish models, reflected an understanding that traditional airfields would be primary targets in any conflict.
Dr. Wang’s focus on AESA radar technologies and C2/ISR integration proved remarkably forward-looking. The technological capabilities he projected have become essential elements of the “deterrence in depth” strategy that Taiwan and its allies continue to develop as Chinese military pressure intensifies.
Malaysia: The Connectivity Imperative
Major General Dato’ Muhamad Norazilan Bin Aris’s emphasis on “Striking the Balance Between Affordability and Capability” highlighted challenges that have only grown more acute. His focus on Link 16 capabilities for better integration with partner air forces, particularly Australia, anticipated the growing importance of coalition interoperability in contested regions.
Malaysia’s two-theater defense requirements and emphasis on maritime domain awareness presaged the multi-domain challenges that have become central to Indo-Pacific strategy. The Royal Malaysian Air Force’s focus on light attack aircraft for multiple roles reflected budget constraints that many nations now face as defense spending struggles to keep pace with growing threats.
Lessons Validated by History
Several key insights from the 2019 conference have proven remarkably prescient:
- Self-Reliance as Foundation: Every presenter emphasized that nations in authoritarian neighborhoods must first be capable of self-defense to “buy time” for allied support. Ukraine’s initial resistance validated this principle entirely.
- Dispersal and Resilience: The emphasis on operating from multiple locations, dispersed basing, and highway operations proved essential when traditional infrastructure became primary targets.
- Political Warfare Integration: The recognition that military threats come wrapped in sophisticated information campaigns anticipated the hybrid nature of modern conflict.
- Coalition Connectivity: The focus on interoperability and Link 16 capabilities reflected an understanding that no nation could stand alone against peer adversaries.
- Technology as Equalizer: The emphasis on advanced radar systems, C2 integration, and networked operations presaged how smaller nations could leverage technology to offset numerical disadvantages.
The Prescient Warning
Perhaps most striking was the shared recognition among 2019 presenters that their nations faced “existential threats” requiring immediate attention, not distant contingency planning. While many in Western capitals still viewed major power competition as a manageable challenge, military leaders from frontline states understood the urgency of their situation.
Their focus on defensive capabilities that could deter aggression without threatening authoritarian homelands proved particularly insightful. This distinction between defensive deterrence and offensive threat has become central to alliance strategies aimed at avoiding escalation while maintaining credible defense.
Looking Forward
The 2019 International Fighter Conference presentations now read as a strategic warning that was largely unheeded until events forced recognition of their accuracy. The military leaders who spoke in Berlin understood their operational environment with a clarity that broader policy communities would only achieve through bitter experience.
As we face continued challenges from authoritarian powers, the insights shared in 2019 remain relevant. The emphasis on self-reliance, coalition interoperability, dispersed operations, and integrated deterrence strategies continues to guide defense planning for nations on freedom’s frontlines.
The tragedy is not that these military professionals lacked foresight — their analysis was remarkably accurate. The tragedy is that it took actual war to validate warnings that were clearly articulated years before the shooting started.
The featured photo shows President Tsai Ing-wen and senior Taiwanese military staff during an exercise in southern county Changhua, not far from one of the island’s main airbases at Taichung. Photo: Facebook
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