As the global order undergoes profound transformation, middle powers are increasingly seeking ways to enhance their strategic autonomy while navigating the complex dynamics of great power competition.
Among the most promising yet under-explored partnerships is the deepening relationship between Brazil and India which are two democratic giants that represent the largest developing nations in their respective hemispheres. While both countries maintain significant economic ties with China, their growing cooperation offers a compelling model for how middle powers can leverage partnerships to manage major power relationships more effectively while advancing their own interests on the global stage.
The strategic logic of enhanced Brazil-India cooperation extends beyond simple economic complementarity. For Brazil, deeper ties with India offer a pathway to reduce over-dependence on China without severing crucial economic links. For India, Brazil provides an essential gateway to Latin American markets and resources while supporting New Delhi’s vision of offering developing nations an alternative to Chinese-dominated initiatives.
The Current State of Brazil-India Relations
The foundation for expanded cooperation already exists. The 9th Joint Commission Meeting co-chaired by External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar with his counterpart Ambassador Mauro Vieira on August 27, 2024, in New Delhi, demonstrated the institutional mechanisms supporting bilateral engagement. Economic ties, while growing, reveal significant untapped potential. In 2024-25, bilateral trade reached $12.20 billion, with Indian exports to Brazil amounting to $6.77 billion and imports from Brazil totaling $5.43 billion.
This economic relationship has shown remarkable growth trajectory. Between 2003 and 2023, India moved from the 26th to the 13th largest destination for Brazilian exports, reflecting an average annual growth in exports to India of 14.3%, which exceeded Brazil’s export growth to the rest of the world at 11.3% during the same period. Yet this represents only a fraction of the potential between two economies that together account for a significant portion of global GDP and population.
The partnership extends across multiple domains beyond trade. Both countries have established robust institutional mechanisms including Joint Defence Committees, Trade Monitoring Mechanisms, and cooperation frameworks in space technology, renewable energy, and traditional medicine. In space cooperation, India and Brazil’s 2004 agreement has led to successful collaboration in data sharing and satellite tracking, with Brazil witnessing the launch of the Amazonia-1 satellite in 2021.
Brazil’s China Challenge and the Search for Strategic Balance
Brazil’s relationship with China presents both opportunities and strategic dilemmas that deeper India ties could help address. China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009. However, this deepening economic interdependence comes with strategic costs. Trade data shows concerning patterns of dependence, with Brazilian beef exports to China accounting for 54.9 percent of Brazil’s total beef exports in 2023. Brazil’s soybean exports to China have reached record levels, with three-quarters of Brazil’s 15.7 million tons of soybean exports in March 2025 destined for China.
Brazilian foreign policy experts advocate for a “hedging strategy” which would require maintaining beneficial economic ties with China while developing alternative partnerships that preserve strategic autonomy. But under President Lula, the focus has been upon linking Brazil ever more closely with Global China.
India’s Alternative Vision and Strategic Offerings
India presents a compelling alternative model for developing nations seeking partnership without subordination. This approach is exemplified in India’s infrastructure initiatives, particularly the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IMEC enhances India’s connectivity, economic opportunities and global standing, while serving as a multilateral counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, in partnership with G7 and regional players. Unlike Chinese projects that often require exclusive partnerships, India’s initiatives emphasize collaborative approaches that preserve partner nations’ strategic autonomy.
India’s technological offerings present another attractive alternative. Brazilian delegations have expressed high interest in collaborating with India in data protection and management architecture, 5G/6G networks, artificial intelligence, supercomputing, and quantum technology. These partnerships offer Brazil access to advanced technology without the strategic strings often attached to Chinese technology transfers, particularly in sensitive areas like telecommunications and artificial intelligence.
The democratic dimension adds another layer of strategic compatibility. Both nations share fundamental values and approaches to international law and governance that create natural foundations for cooperation. This values-based partnership offers both countries enhanced credibility in international forums and strengthens their positions as leaders of the democratic Global South.
Strategic Benefits of Enhanced Cooperation
Enhanced India ties would provide Brazil multiple strategic advantages. Economic diversification represents the most immediate benefit. India-Brazil trade accounts for nearly one-fourth of India-Latin America trade in the 21st century, with Indian investment in Brazil estimated at $6 billion in 2018—by far the largest in the region. Expanding this relationship would reduce Brazil’s vulnerability to economic pressure from any single partner while creating new opportunities for Brazilian exports and investment.
Technology transfer and innovation partnerships offer long-term strategic value. India’s successful development of indigenous capabilities in space technology, pharmaceuticals, information technology, and renewable energy provides Brazil with alternative sources of technology and know-how. This is particularly valuable given concerns about technological dependence that have emerged in Brazil’s relationship with China.
Developing world leadership represents another crucial dimension. As the two largest developing countries in their respective hemispheres, enhanced Brazil-India cooperation could provide more authentic leadership for developing nations than alternatives like the BRICS which is increasingly dominated by Global China and Russia which is increasingly a Chinese client state.
For India, Brazil offers unparalleled access to Latin American markets and resources. Brazil serves as India’s primary entry point to a region with over 650 million people and growing economies. Enhanced cooperation could facilitate Indian business expansion throughout Latin America while providing Brazilian companies with platforms for expansion into Asian markets.
Resource security represents another critical benefit. Brazil’s vast agricultural resources, mineral wealth, and energy production offer India opportunities to diversify its supply chains and reduce dependence on other suppliers. This is particularly important given India’s growing energy needs and the geopolitical volatility affecting many resource-rich regions.
The partnership also supports India’s broader strategic vision of offering developing nations alternatives to great power dependence.
Success in the Brazil partnership could serve as a model for similar relationships throughout Latin America and Africa, advancing India’s aspirations for global leadership.
Practical Areas for Enhanced Cooperation
Infrastructure and Connectivity
Infrastructure development represents perhaps the most promising area for expanded cooperation. Both countries have significant expertise and needs in this sector. Brazil’s experience in large-scale infrastructure projects, combined with India’s growing capabilities in digital infrastructure and smart city development, could create synergies benefiting both nations.
The connection to broader connectivity initiatives offers additional possibilities. While Brazil has not joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it could potentially participate in or complement India’s infrastructure initiatives like IMEC, creating alternative pathways for South-South cooperation.
Technology and Digital Economy
Technology cooperation has already shown significant promise. Both countries are advancing rapidly in digital infrastructure, green technology, and space applications. India and Brazil’s established space cooperation, dating from their 2004 agreement, provides a foundation for expanded collaboration in satellite technology, earth observation, and space-based applications.
Emerging technologies offer new frontiers for cooperation. Brazilian interest in collaborating with India on artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced telecommunications could create joint capabilities that enhance both countries’ technological sovereignty and competitiveness.
Climate and Energy
Climate cooperation represents both necessity and opportunity. India has achieved 13% ethanol blending and targets 20% by 2025, while Brazil became a co-founder member of the Global Biofuel Alliance launched during the G20 Summit in New Delhi.¹⁹ This existing cooperation could expand to include broader renewable energy partnerships, sustainable agriculture, and climate adaptation technologies.
Defense and Security
Defense cooperation, while sensitive, offers important possibilities for both nations. Both countries face complex security environments and have interests in maintaining strategic autonomy in defense procurement and capabilities. Enhanced cooperation could include joint training, technology sharing, and collaborative approaches to maritime security, particularly in the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic regions.
Managing Major Power Reactions
Enhanced Brazil-India cooperation would inevitably provoke reactions from major powers, particularly China and the United States. Managing these responses requires careful calibration and clear communication about the partnership’s objectives and limitations.
China’s likely response would combine economic incentives and pressure. Beijing might offer enhanced trade terms or investment opportunities to discourage closer Brazil-India ties, while potentially using economic leverage to signal displeasure.
The United States might view enhanced Brazil-India cooperation with mixed feelings. While Washington would likely welcome any development that reduces Chinese influence in Latin America, it might also worry about initiatives that enhance middle power autonomy and reduce American influence. However, the democratic nature of both Brazil and India, combined with their shared interests in maintaining open international systems, should mitigate American concerns.
The broader context of global power transitions creates favorable conditions for enhanced Brazil-India cooperation. One of the leading trends in world politics is the growing desire of middle powers for more control over the shape of the global order and greater influence over specific outcomes.
The strategic partnership between Brazil and India represents more than bilateral cooperation. It could generate a new model for middle power diplomacy in an era of major power competition. By leveraging their complementary strengths, shared values, and common aspirations for strategic autonomy, both countries can enhance their global positions while contributing to a more balanced international order.
In 2026, we are publishing a book by Robbin Laird and Kenneth Maxwell entitled: The Australian, Brazilian and Chinese Dynamic: An Inquiry into the Evolving Global Order.
