In the complex chess game of global geopolitics, few developments have been as paradoxical as the way two of Xi Jinping’s most challenging counterparts may have inadvertently strengthened China’s strategic position. While facing significant domestic economic headwinds, President Xi has found unexpected opportunities in the disruptions caused by Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
By 2022, Xi Jinping confronted a daunting economic landscape. China’s growth model, built on manufacturing exports and massive infrastructure investment, was showing signs of strain. The property sector was in crisis, demographic trends pointed toward a shrinking workforce, and the COVID-19 pandemic had disrupted global supply chains that Chinese manufacturers depended upon. Perhaps most challenging of all, Western companies were increasingly “friend-shoring” or “near-shoring” their production, moving operations from China to India, Mexico, or back to domestic facilities.
Xi’s response focused on building domestic demand to reduce dependence on exports, but this transition came with its own contradictions. The Chinese government’s emphasis on maintaining political control over the economy from tech crackdowns to regulatory interventions often worked against the market dynamism needed to drive consumption and innovation. This tension between political imperatives and economic efficiency represented a fundamental challenge to China’s development model.
The Russian Opportunity
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 unexpectedly provided Xi with a pathway through some of these challenges. While Western sanctions isolated Russia economically, China positioned itself as Moscow’s most important economic lifeline. Chinese imports of Russian energy soared, often at heavily discounted prices, providing Beijing with crucial raw materials at favorable terms during a period of global inflation.
More strategically significant, however, was how the war accelerated Russia’s economic decline and weakened Moscow’s influence over its traditional sphere of influence. In Central Asia, countries that had long balanced between Russian and Chinese influence found themselves dealing with an increasingly weakened northern neighbor. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian states began tilting more decisively toward Chinese investment and trade partnerships.
This shift allowed China to expand its Belt and Road Initiative influence in a region rich with energy resources and strategically positioned between China and European markets. What emerged was not just economic opportunity, but a fundamental reshaping of Eurasian geopolitics in China’s favor. This was an outcome that might have taken decades to achieve through purely economic competition with a stronger Russia.
Trump’s Trade War Paradox
Donald Trump’s return to aggressive trade policies, particularly his expansion of tariffs on Chinese goods, presented Xi with another unexpected strategic opening. While these tariffs certainly imposed costs on Chinese exporters, they also created an opportunity for China to position itself as the champion of free trade and multilateralism which is a remarkable role reversal from the traditional post-war order.
As the United States pursued increasingly unilateral trade policies, China strengthened its relationships with traditional American partners. Brazilian soybean exports to China increased dramatically as Trump’s trade policies made American agricultural products less competitive. Australian mining companies, despite political tensions with Beijing, continued to benefit from Chinese demand for iron ore and other commodities.
Perhaps more importantly, Trump’s approach pushed many countries to diversify their economic relationships away from over-dependence on the United States. This “de-risking” from American economic dominance created openings for China to expand trade relationships across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and even parts of Europe.
The Limits of Opportunism
However, this narrative of Chinese strategic gains should be tempered with recognition of its limitations. China’s closer relationship with Russia, while economically beneficial in the short term, carries significant risks. Secondary sanctions remain a constant threat, and the association with an increasingly isolated regime complicates China’s relationships with European and other Western partners.
Similarly, while Trump’s trade policies may have pushed some countries toward China, they also accelerated a broader trend of technological decoupling. American restrictions on semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, and other advanced technologies have created genuine challenges for Chinese technological development. The cost of reduced access to Western technology and investment may outweigh the benefits of expanded trade relationships elsewhere.
Moreover, many of China’s strategic moves from the Belt and Road Initiative to efforts at domestic consumption growth preceded both the Ukraine war and Trump’s return to protectionist policies. This suggests that Chinese strategy has been more proactive than simply reactive to external opportunities.
The Chinese experience since 2022 illustrates a broader principle in international relations: how skilled powers can transform external disruptions into strategic advantages. Xi Jinping’s government has demonstrated considerable agility in adapting to changing global circumstances, turning potential isolation into opportunities for expanded influence.
For policymakers in Washington and Moscow, this dynamic offers important lessons. Unilateral actions, whether military interventions or trade wars, can create unintended consequences that benefit strategic competitors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only failed to achieve its stated objectives but has also accelerated the decline of Russian influence in favor of Chinese expansion. Similarly, American trade policies aimed at constraining China may be pushing other countries toward exactly the kind of China-centric economic relationships that Washington seeks to prevent.
The irony of contemporary geopolitics is that Xi Jinping may owe some of his strategic successes to the very leaders who pose the greatest challenges to Chinese interests. Putin’s military adventurism has weakened Russia’s position in ways that benefit Chinese expansion, while Trump’s trade nationalism has created openings for China to position itself as a more reliable economic partner.
This dynamic suggests that in an interconnected world, the consequences of major power actions extend far beyond their intended targets. As global competition intensifies, the ability to transform challenges into opportunities as China has done since 2022 may prove as important as raw economic or military power in determining which nations emerge stronger from periods of global upheaval.
The question moving forward is whether this pattern will continue, and whether other powers will learn to anticipate and counter such strategic adaptation. In the great game of 21st-century geopolitics, the most successful players may be those who can best turn their opponents’ moves to their own advantage.
The AI-generated image of how President Xi looks at the global chessboard.