By Pierre Tran
Paris – President Emmanuel Macron started Feb. 17 an official visit to India, a few days after the defense ministry in New Delhi said it had given the green light for contract talks for a further batch of Rafale and missiles, with local media reports of a deal for 114 fighter jets.
“The procurement of (multi-role fighter aircraft) will enhance the capability of undertaking air dominance roles across the spectrum of conflict and significantly boost the deterrence capabilities of IAF with long range offensive strikes,” the ministry said in a Feb.12 statement. “The majority of MRFA to be procured will be manufactured in India.”
If New Delhi went ahead with a 114-strong order, that would be Dassault’s largest Rafale export deal, capping the contract for 80 fighters for the United Arab Emirates. The UAE signed in 2021 that fighter deal worth €14 billion, with a further €2 billion for missiles.
The Indian statement followed authorization by the Defence Acquisition Council to open contract negotiations on the Rafale, with India requesting a government-to-government deal.
Such an intergovernmental deal was seen as underscoring the importance of Macron’s visit, which included his attending New Delhi’s high-level exhibition on artificial intelligence.
The Indian navy also sought a further order for 31 naval versions of the Rafale, financial website La Tribune reported Feb. 14, on top of the 114 sought by the air force. That naval requirement, if delivered, would bring the Indian fleet air arm to 57 carrier-based Rafale, as India ordered 26 French-built fighters for the navy last year.
The acquisition council also authorized procurement of missiles for the Rafale, anti-tank missiles for the army, and Boeing P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft for the navy. The total value of the wide ranging authorizations – known as “acceptance of necessity” – was reported to be $40 billion, including the potential Rafale order.
Uncertainty Ahead
In contrast to what looked like bullish prospects, a Feb. 10 newsletter from the CGT labor union at Dassault said the executive chairman, Eric Trappier, spoke of severe “instability” in the economy, with the “after-Rafale” prospect at the center of discussion.
A cancellation of the European future combat air system was expected, leading to a plan B, and in the meantime all studies were suspended, the note said. The company had stopped hiring for the design office due to uncertainty looming over future military programs, namely FCAS, Eurodrone, an uncrewed air combat vehicle, and Rafale F5, as well the end of studies for the latest Falcon business jet. The company ended recruitment to fill vacancies due to retirement, and would make internal staff moves.
Elsewhere, the company would recruit 200 staff this year, with new hires at four plants around the country and replacing retiring personnel. The Rafale order book accounts for 10 years of work.
Trappier was speaking Feb. 10 to the economic and social committee, in which union representatives sit.
India ordered in 2016 36 Rafale, worth some €7.9 billion ($9.3 billion), for the air force, and April last year ordered 26 of the naval version for the Indian navy’s two aircraft carriers.
Dassault has doubled monthly production to two Rafale a month since 2020, and has said it was ready to build three or four a month in the coming years.
Foreign deals boost the company’s order book and cash holdings, at a time when France was bowed under national debt. French debt totalled €3.3 trillion, or 114 percent of gross domestic product, last June, Reuters reported. Debt payment is expected to hit more than €100 billion by 2029.
But France is the backer for future fighter programs, requiring billions of euro in investment.
India Counts
Macron’s three-day visit to India was “absolutely important,” said Tara Varma, managing director of strategic foresight and director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund, a U.S.-based think tank.
Macron and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi have a “close personal relationship,” she said, adding that France and India have strong ties in military cooperation. That has widened to broader cultural, scientific and other areas, and there was opportunity to grow those links.
India needed to diversify arms procurement, as more than half of its military equipment was of Russian origin, she said. There was also strong Israeli, U.S. presence in Indian kit.
Macron, who met Modi at Mumbai, western India, was accompanied by the armed forces minister, Catherine Vautrin. Vautrin met her Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, and attended the formal opening of an Airbus Helicopters assembly plant for its H125 helicopter, with the local partner Tata Advanced Systems.
Chief executives of French large, medium, and small companies, including Dassault, Safran, and Naval Group, were on that trip, pointing up strong business interest in India.
Meanwhile, India is under western pressure to slash imports of Russian crude oil, shipped over on a “shadow fleet” tankers of dubious origin and doubtful safety standard.
Trump cut U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 18 pct from 50 pct after New Delhi pledged to end import of Russian oil, and buy more American energy and goods.
A Fighter Market
The contract talks with India will come in the wake of the reported downing of the Indian air force Rafale by a Chinese-built Chengdu J-10 fighter of Pakistan in May last year, in an armed clash between the two neighbouring nations.
A prospective order of more Dassault fighters can be seen as pointing up close ties between India and France, and the family controlled company, dating back to the 1950s. New Delhi’s policy of non-alignment in the Cold War meant India effectively operated two air forces, flying French- and Soviet-built fighters to show its independence in the third world.
A former executive of the aeronautics industry said the German industrial partner in Eurofighter Typhoon had led the consortium’s bid in the Indian fighter competition, as India fell in its assigned part of the world market.
Britain, Germany, Italy, and Spain are the four nations backing Eurofighter, with Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo as industrial partners.
The allure of the Indian market can be seen with Lockheed Martin pitching an upgraded F-16, rebranded as F-21, and U.S. President Donald Trump offering the F-35. Russia has pitched its Sukhoi Su-57, with media reports the Su-75 Checkmate fighter also on offer.
Meanwhile, the Bangladesh air force signed Dec. 9 last year a letter of intent with the Italian partner, Leonardo, for talks on a potential order for the Eurofighter Typhoon, news agency Reuters reported. That would be Bangladesh’s first procurement of a western-built fighter if the Typhoon deal were sealed.
Make in India
A key Indian requirement was local production of the Rafale, with the defense minister calling for up to half the content of the fighter to be “India-made,” the Times of India reported Feb. 18. Rajnath also called for Rafale’s Safran M88 engines to be built and serviced in India.
New Delhi has called for deals to be conducted under its Make in India policy, in a bid to boost the national economy.
Dassault said in June last year it had signed four production agreements with its Indian partner Tata Advanced Systems for local production of the Rafale fuselage, with the first fuselage to be delivered in fiscal year 2028. Two fuselages were to be built a month, once the line was working at the new Hyderabad plant.
The plan was for Dassault to build some 30 fighters in France, with the remaining units to be built in India, to meet that request for technology transfer and local assembly.
Safran Electronics and Defense signed a memorandum of understanding with its Indian partner Bharat Electronics to set up a joint venture to build in India its powered smart bomb, dubbed Hammer, Times of India reported. That powered bomb, known as armement air-sol modular in France, was used by the Indian air force in its Operation Sindoor against the Pakistan services, the report said.
Note: Rafale photo from the Paris air show.
Photo by Paul Grayson : Photeinos.com