By Robert Czulda

Ukraine needs to be supplied with heavy weaponry.

Ukrainian defenders are usually depicted by media as mainly light infantry, armed with lethal yet mobile anti-tank systems. This image is as romantic but misleading. There is a good reason to do this, at least from the Ukrainian point of view – a war with Russia is presented as a clash between David and Goliath.  Only David – weaker and doomed for a defeat – gains sympathy.

However, this is a false narrative – Ukraine has been relying mostly on heavy weaponry, such as artillery, armored vehicles and tanks. Without them, Ukraine would not be able to resist the aggressor for so long.

While Russia still has the ability to replace lost vehicles – although these capabilities are slowly depleting – Ukraine, which has weaker mechanized forces, does not have such comfort (especially now, when various Ukrainian heavy factories were either destroyed or damaged). For Ukraine, every tank and heavy artillery is now worth its weight in gold.

NATO member states should jointly supply Ukraine with heavy weaponry.

Obviously, the Ukrainian Army was not trained to operate tanks, artillery systems or armored vehicles of Western origin. Such trainings would take many weeks or even months. Therefore, the most feasible and logic idea is to supply Ukraine with equipment they already know and could start using straight after deliveries. Such weaponry can be still found both in the Balkans and Central-Eastern Europe.

We do not know exactly how large Ukraine’s losses in heavy equipment are. Kyiv – which is also understandable – does not provide information on this subject.

According to Oryx, Ukraine lost at least 501 vehicles: 185 were destroyed, 10 damaged, 37 abandoned, while 269 were captured by the enemy. Regardless of a real scale of loses, without deliveries of heavy arms (including munition and spare parts mainly for field repairs), Ukraine will not only be unable to carry out any counter-offensive that is necessary to recapture the lost territory, but ultimately will loose a war of attrition.

In other words: tanks, artillery and armored vehicles are crucial, if Ukraine wants to stand its ground.

Undoubtedly Ukraine has been depleting its armor strength, which is based on various variants of the T-64 tank (upgraded by indigenous industry). This is a child of the Soviet Union, but in fact it was designed and manufactured on the Ukrainian soil – by Kharkiv Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau.

Kharkiv is now an arena of fierce fights. Ukraine cannot be supplied with additional T-64s, since this model has never been used by any post-communist Central-Eastern European state.

It means that the most likely tank that Ukraine could get, would be the T-72, which exists in numerous variants (however they are inferior to Russian T-72B3 model). These tanks are still in used by several NATO states, such as Poland (which also has the PT-91 Twardy tank – this is a local development of the T-72M1), Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.

Although their combat value is currently limited, even modest deliveries could increase combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Army (including their mobility).

The same applies to armored vehicles – Ukraine has several types, BTR-4s, BTR-80s and BTR-70s. Some of them could be found in North Macedonia or Slovakia. The most obvious vehicle, which is possessed by several NATO member states, is the BMP-1 tracked infantry fighting vehicle. They are still owned by Bulgaria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic (BVP-1 variant) or mainly Poland (the latter has roughly 1,000 vehicles, which are expected to be replaced in a near future by a locally designed AIFV, known as BORSUK/BADGER).

Ukrainian artillery, which is used excessively, could be reinforced too. Ukraine is, so far, quite successful in integrating UAVs with artillery – while the former detects targets, the latter are used to engage them from a safe distance.

Apart from towed artillery (such as D-30 or D-20), Ukraine has numerous self-propelled systems, including 2S1 Gvozdika, 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, 2S5 Giatsint-S, not to mention rocket artillery (BM-21 Grad, BM-27 Uragan or BM-30 Smerch).

While majority of these systems are not in stock among NATO member states, and thus they could not be delivered to Ukraine, some are – either still in service or in reserve.

For instance, 2S1s are still possessed by Bulgaria, Croatia or Poland. Most likely Ukraine still has enough artillery pieces (many pieces are in reserves), but lacks ammo. NATO could help Ukraine by facilitating transfer of proper munition.

A significant boost to Ukrainian warfighting capabilities would be air-defense systems, other than MANPADS, which are highly useful but have significant limitations.

According to some sources, the Pentagon has confirmed that there were “ongoing discussions” with NATO allies regarding “transfers of defenses capabilities to include long-range air defenses, that we know that they’re comfortable using”. The most likely supplier is Slovakia, which has the S-300 long range surface-to-air missile system. The same system is used by other NATO member states, such as Bulgaria and Greece.

According to some rumors, there are also discussions with Ankara, who owns the S-400 (an upgraded variant), but the system has never been introduced by the Turkish military into operational service.

By donating the S-400s to Ukraine, Ankara would harm its ties with Russia, but at the same time it would give Erdogan an opportunity to improve highly strained relations with NATO and particularly the United States. However, there is a significant problem – the Ukrainians have not been trained to use the S-400.

It is worth adding that reportedly the United States has already sent to Ukraine the 9K33 Osa (SA-8) highly mobile, low-altitude, short-range tactical surface-to-air missile system. Some units can be still found in Greece, Romania or Poland.

Such deliveries would possible under three conditions.

First, there need to be a secure land corridor between NATO and Ukraine (so far the Russian Army was unable to launch an offensive and cut it off).

Secondly, this should be a decision of all NATO member states – all partners need share a certain burden. While some states would donate their equipment – and in consequence they would reduce their defense capabilities and expose to Russian responses – other states would have to step in and first assist them by providing interim substitute capabilities and later by donating their own surplus equipment.  There are also some good examples – both the Netherlands and Germany agreed to deploy their Patriot missile defense systems to Slovakia). Moreover, countries willing to donate its equipment, should be financially assisted by other NATO member states, who could then cover at least partial costs of new systems they would need to procure.

Thirdly, the United States must take more active role and become a real leader – this is widely expected by Central-Eastern Europe.

Both societies and governments are looking for more solid security commitments and assistance. The West, including the White House, cannot expect the most vulnerable NATO member states, located on a frontline with Russia – such as Poland, Slovakia or Romania – to unilaterally show acts of courage.

Let’s hope that a planned visit of President Joe Biden in Poland this Friday will meet expectations of the region.

Featured Photo: Photo 129987699 / Ukraine War © Oleksandr Ilin | Dreamstime.com

Dr. Robert Czulda is an Assistant Professor at the University of Lodz, Poland. He is a former Visiting Professor at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) under a Fulbright Senior Award.

Dr. Czulda is an Alum of the Young Leaders Dialogue of the U.S. Department of State (2010– 2011), and has lectured at universities in Iran, Brazil, Indonesia, Ireland, Lithuania, Turkey and Slovakia, as well as the National Cheng-chi University in Taipei.

He is a freelance defense journalist as well and has published widely on Polish defense and related issues.

Dr. Czulda’s area of expertise is international security and defense.

By Pierre Tran

Paris – The French fleet air arm is flying a daily patrol of two Rafale fighter jets and a Hawkeye spy plane over Romania and Bulgaria, part of a Nato enhanced Vigilance Activities (eVA) mission, a French navy officer said March 8.

Those flights are from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, in response to Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to heightened military activity to support Nato allies close to the besieged East European nation.

It takes 45 minutes for a Rafale pilot to fly from the aircraft carrier, sailing in the Eastern Mediterranean, to reach Romanian airspace, said the officer. The fighter jets are also flying in a second operation, supporting the European Union Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

On the 14th day of the Russian invasion, there was a 12-hour ceasefire for Ukrainian civilians to take humanitarian corridors to escape artillery and rocket attacks. The Red Cross has called “apocalyptic” the conditions at the southern sea port of Mariupol.

Some two million refugees have left Ukraine, the UN has reported.

The French fleet air arm fighter jets and airborne warning and control system (AWACS) plane fly over the Black Sea, which Russia has effectively closed to warships of Nato allies since Christmas.

“That was no surprise,” the officer said.

The officer declined to confirm Le Telegramme, a regional paper, which reported March 1 a second French nuclear ballistic missile submarine has been ordered to take to sea.

“No comment. You have to call the other side of the Seine,” the officer said, referring to the president’s Elysée office.

This was the first sailing of two French nuclear missile boats since 1981, sparked by the Euromissile crisis, afternoon daily Le Monde reported. There is usually one nuclear ballistic missile submarine at sea.

Aircraft carrier on station

France has redeployed the Charles de Gaulle carrier to fly “air police and reconnaissance” flights over Romania, armed forces minister Florence Parly said March 3 on BFM TV.

The fighters and spy plane would “observe and deter,” she said, with the fleet air arm adding to air force patrols flying from France in response to the Russian assault.

The carrier task force had been on the Clemenceau mission against threats in the Middle East.

France has also sent some 350 troops and armored vehicles to Romania, part of the Nato “defense and deterrence posture,” the transatlantic alliance said March 8. The French armor includes Leclerc heavy tanks, photos with the statement show.

The French carrier-borne fighter jets were also flying a “a mission of presence,” the navy officer said, supporting the EU Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The EU, with its 700-strong European Union Force (Eufor), backs the Althea operation, which trains the armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina to bring them to Nato standards.

Tension has been rising in Bosnia, with Serbian separatists seeking to form their own armed forces, effectively breaking the terms of the Dayton-Paris agreement, which brought an end to the Serbo-Croat war in 1999.

“At this time when the security equilibrium in Europe is shaken, the EU demonstrates its continuing commitment and resolve to support a safe and secure environment in BiH (Bosnia and Herzegovina) and the Western Balkans, Eufor said in a statement.

The French air patrols over Bosnia and Herzegovina began March 7. Nato also has headquarters in Sarajevo.

Nato set up a battle group in Romania in an enhanced Vigilance Activities  (eVA) operation, to bolster security among East European member nations against a perceived Russian threat.

“The establishment of the Nato eVA represents a decisive message of cohesion and solidarity,” the alliance said Feb. 15. “These measures increase the readiness, deter aggression, and clearly demonstrates Nato’s firm commitment to the defense of all allies.”

Meanwhile, French air force Mirage 2000-5Fs were due to leave Feb. 13 Luxeuil air base, eastern France, to fly to Estonia. The fighters will be based in Estonia, in the Nato enhanced Air Policing (eAP) mission, seeking to uphold “sovereignty of the airspace over the Baltic countries,” the air force said. The fighters will be stationed there until Aug. 1.

Russian Arc of Naval Reach

The Russian navy has an extensive arc of operations stretching from Murmansk in the north, through Sevastopol in the Russian occupied Crimea in Ukraine, to Odessa, also in Ukraine, the French officer said.

In the Arctic seas of the High North , the French navy sails the Fremm multimission frigate and maritime patrol aircraft, working with Western allies in the region.

Russia also has a naval base in Syria, which gives the capability to operate quickly and flexibly in the Mediterranean, and plans for a naval base in Sudan.

Meanwhile, China has a navy base in Djibouti and is fast building warships, including submarines and a carrier with catapult and arresting gear, the officer said, sparking Norwegian concern it was just a matter of time before a Chinese submarine sailed in the North Atlantic.

The security concern is that one day, Russia and China might use their bases to block maritime trade to Europe.

That perceived threat pointed up the importance of a European Union concept of Coordinated Maritime Presence, extending the reach of a European naval coalition to the Indian Ocean.

There would be a “coordinated European military presence,” the officer said, pointing up the significance of European allies working together in a new naval region.

“The (European) Council today also decided to launch the implementation of the CMP concept in the North-Western Indian Ocean by establishing a Maritime Area of Interest covering the maritime area from the Strait of Hormuz to the Southern Tropic and from the North of the Red Sea towards the centre of the Indian Ocean,” the Council of the European Union said Feb. 22 in a statement.

Missions with Western allies, which included the French carrier task force sailing with Italian and U.S. warships, pointed up the importance of coalitions, the officer said.

There is a real political decision to make: whether to act alone or in coalition.

European navies could sail some 100 frigates, “good ships,” the officer said, pointing up the importance of interoperability and resilience. The EU project to build a European Patrol Corvette reflected European cooperation.

The other EU measure for naval cooperation was to extend a Coordinated Maritime Presence in the Gulf of Guinea for a further two years.

Meanwhile, it was commonplace for Russian warships in the Mediterranean to light up the Charles de Gaulle carrier task force with targeting radar, the officer said, a “highly disagreeable” measure intended to intimidate, and show their presence. There were also Russian Kilo class submarines sailing in the Mediterranean.

Relations with the Australian navy were now “rather cool,” the officer said.

That chilly relationship was due to Australia in September dropping a plan to build a fleet of diesel-electric submarines with French shipbuilder Naval Group. That followed Canberra’s unexpected switch to a nuclear-powered boat, in cooperation with the U.K. and the U.S.

Cooperation on operations was going well, such as the French FS Astrolabe, which sails from Hobart, Tasmania, off the Australian coast, to resupply the French Antarctic station.

The British first sea lord and naval chief, Adm. Ben Key, was due to visit France March 11 and 12, attending a work meeting with his French counterpart, Adm. Pierre Vandier, and going to Lorient, northwestern France, to watch the two rugby matches of men and women of the Royal Navy playing against the French navy.

American, British and French officers met at the Newport International Seapower Symposium last September. Just after that event, news broke of the AUKUS agreement on defense cooperation between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S., centred on an Australian plan to order nuclear-powered submarines.

A dependence on the U.S. to hit Serbian forces in the war with Croatia led to the then British prime minister, Tony Blair, and then French president Jacques Chirac, adopting a plan for European military cooperation at the bilateral summit at St Malo, northwest France, in 1998.

That agreement led to a European Council approval for a 60,000-strong European military force, a plan which stayed on paper.

Photo: Triomphant-class submarine. French Navy Photo

By Robbin Laird

Recently, I had a chance to talk again with Lt. General (Retired) Klaus-Peter Stieglitz about Germany and the government’s recent decision to change course on defense and security. I first had the opportunity to meet Lt. General (Retired) Klaus-Peter Stieglitz, a former German Air Chief, last Fall in Berlin at the International Fighter Conference.

During my visit to Germany in February 2019, where I was continuing my look at the challenge of building a 21st century approach to the direct defense of Europe, I had a chance to meet with him again, this time in Bonn, to discuss the challenges facing a German reset on direct defense.

According to my discussion with Stieglitz during the visit to Bonn in 2019: “The strategic environment has changed and requires Germany, a nation in the heart of Europe with more than 80 million people, to pay it’s fair share for the collective defense and to shape and focus on a force appropriate to the new situation.

“Obviously, the new defense effort requires more money. This is starting to happen.

But we are facing a significant rebuild given the state of readiness of the force today and the need to repair that force.

“Just undertaking the repair of todays state of readiness will make the Bundeswehr a construction site for the next years. We are almost back to 1955 when we had to build a new Bundeswehr.

“Our rebuild for the new strategic environment today is as significant as during these early years of the Bundeswehr. And all that happens after decades enjoying a peace dividend, where savings certainly have not been spent within the Bundeswehr.”

“But money alone is not enough. We are talking about changing the focus and building a 21st century defense force which can play its role at the heart of Europe.”

Unfortunately, not much progress has been made since that conversation.

But has Stieglitz put it in our recent discussion in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a decisive shift in Germany now to make this happen.

He underscored that “The German chancellor in day 3 of the Russian invasion, announced a major shift in German defense policy. Not only was new money generated for the Bundeswehr, but a new attitude was expressed towards the priority upon defense.”

He also noted that German companies were now leaving Russia and the Nordstream II pipeline stopped. He added: “I don’t see such a project getting support in the future. There is a new attitude and a new approach.”

“We are now discussing and will procure weapons systems which the German forces are missing very badly. Those steps will be taken in the next few weeks and months. But the really key point is the decisive action by the Chancellor and the government towards Russia and the focus on the defense of Europe and the forces for the NATO alliance.

“We have a new situation in Europe since the invasion. The war from the Russian side with the support of Belarus is a decisive change for Germany and for Europe.

“The government deployed German fighter aircraft to Romania. We will support the Baltics with air defense. We will strengthen the German ground deployment in the Baltics.

“We will enhance our role in safeguarding the airspace of Europe to the East. These steps have already been taken within the past few days. And this is in stark contrast to what Germany did after the 2014 Crimean takeover by Putin.”

With Lt. General (Retired) Klaus-Peter Stieglitz’s core emphasis on the Chancellor’s announcement and his focus on that statement being an important turning point, let me turn to what the Chancellor indeed said in his policy statement of February 27, 2022.

The Chancellor underscored that the Russian attack on Ukraine means that “we have entered a new era.” He clearly warned Putin to not threaten NATO states with a direct attack.

“President Putin should not underestimate our resolve to defend every square metre of NATO territory together with our allies!

“We are absolutely serious about this. When we welcome a country into NATO, we commit to defending that country as a partner and ally. Just as we would defend ourselves!

“The Bundeswehr has already bolstered its support for our eastern allies – and will continue to do so. I thank the Federal Defence Minister for this important gesture!

• We have deployed additional troops in Lithuania, where we lead the NATO battlegroup.
• We have extended and enhanced our participation in air policing in Romania.
• We want to contribute to the establishment of a new NATO unit in Slovakia.
• Our navy is helping to secure the North Sea and the Baltic as well as the Mediterranean with additional vessels.
• And we are also prepared to contribute to the defence of our allies’ air space in Eastern Europe using anti-aircraft missiles.”

“The page has been turned and Putin’s real agenda is clear to Europeans.”

As the Chancellor said: “Anyone who reads Putin’s historicising essays, who has watched his televised declaration of war on Ukraine, or who has recently – as I have done – held hours of direct talks with him, can no longer have any doubt that Putin wants to build a Russian empire.

“He wants to fundamentally redefine the status quo within Europe in line with his own vision.

“And he has no qualms about using military force to do so. We can see that today in Ukraine.

“We must therefore ask ourselves: What capabilities does Putin’s Russia possess? And what capabilities do we need in order to counter this threat – today and in the future?

“It is clear that we must invest much more in the security of our country. In order to protect our freedom and our democracy. This is a major national undertaking. The goal is a powerful, cutting-edge, progressive Bundeswehr that can be relied upon to protect us.

“At the Munich Security Conference a week ago I said that we need aeroplanes that fly, ships that can set out to sea and soldiers who are optimally equipped for their missions. That is what is important. And it is quite certainly something that a country of our size and our significance within Europe should be able to achieve.

“But we should be under no illusions. Better equipment, modern technology, more personnel – all of this costs a lot of money. We will therefore set up a special fund for the Bundeswehr. And I am deeply grateful to Federal Finance Minister Lindner for his support on this! The 2022 federal budget will provide a one-off sum of 100 billion euro for the fund. We will use this money for necessary investments and armament projects.

“We will now – year after year – invest more than two percent of our gross domestic product in our defence. And I now appeal to all parliamentary groups within the German Bundestag: We must secure this special fund in our Basic Law!

“There is one thing that I would like to add. We have set this goal not only because we have made a promise to our friends and allies to increase our defence expenditure to two percent of our economic output by 2024. We are also doing this for us, for our own security.

“In the awareness that the Bundeswehr alone does not have the means to contain all future threats.

“We therefore need strong development cooperation. We will therefore strengthen our resilience – in terms of technology and as a society – for example against cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, against attacks on our critical infrastructure and channels of communication.

“And we will keep pace with new technology. This is why it is so important to me, for example, that we build the next generation of combat aircraft and tanks here in Europe together with European partners, and particularly France. These projects are our utmost priority. Until the aircraft are operational, we will continue to develop the Eurofighter together.

“Another encouraging development is that the contracts for the Eurodrone were finally signed this week. We are also pushing ahead on the purchase of the armed Heron drone from Israel.

“And with regard to nuclear sharing, we will procure a modern replacement for the outdated Tornado jets in good time.

“The Eurofighter is set to be equipped with electronic warfare capabilities.

“The F-35 fighter jet has the potential to be used as a carrier aircraft.

“And finally, ladies and gentlemen, we will do more to guarantee a secure energy supply for our country. The Federal Government has already initiated one important measure to address this.

“And we will change course in order to eliminate our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers.

“After all, the events of recent days and weeks have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is not just crucial for our economy and our climate. It is also crucial for our security. This means that the faster we make progress with the development of renewable energies, the better. And we are on the right track. We are an industrialised country aiming to become carbon-neutral by 2045!

“With this goal on the horizon, we will have to take major decisions. For example, on building up a reserve of coal and gas. We have decided to increase the amount of natural gas in storage via long-term options to two billion cubic metres. Furthermore, we will acquire additional natural gas on the world markets – in consultation with the EU. And finally, we have made the decision to rapidly build two LNG terminals in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven. I would like to expressly thank Federal Economics Minister Habeck for his efforts to facilitate this!

“Our current short-term needs can dovetail with what is already needed long-term for the transformation to succeed. An LNG terminal that today receives gas can tomorrow be used to import green hydrogen. And amidst all this, we will of course not lose sight of the high energy prices. They have now been driven up yet further by Putin’s war.

“This week we have therefore agreed on a relief package, which includes lifting the surcharge under the Renewable Energy Sources Act by the end of this year, as well as an increase in the commuter tax allowance, a heating subsidy for low earners, subsidies for families and tax relief measures. The Federal Government will act swiftly to set these in motion. Our message is clear. We will not leave individuals and businesses to face this situation alone.

“Ladies and gentlemen, this watershed does not just affect our country. It affects all of Europe. And this, too, is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge consists in strengthening the sovereignty of the European Union sustainably and permanently. The opportunity lies in preserving the united front that we have demonstrated in recent days in agreeing the sanctions package.

“For Germany and for all of the EU’s other member states, that means not simply asking what they can extract in Brussels for their own country. But asking: What is the best decision for our Union? Europe is our framework for action. Only when we understand that will we prevail over the challenges of our time.”

We closed our discussion by this thought – perhaps the Russian invasion of Ukraine is as decisive a moment in the minds of the new generation of Germany as it was for the German and European generations at the time of the Berlin Airlift.

Lieutenant General (ret) Klaus-Peter Stieglitz was Chief of Staff, German Air Force from 2004 to 2009.

Lieutenant General Stieglitz joined the Luftwaffe in October 1968 and commenced officer training, followed by pilot training in the USA to become a fighter pilot. During his flying career he has accumulated more than 3.600 flight hours, mostly on combat aircraft, i.e. the F-104 Starfighter, F-4F Phantom, Mig-29 and Eurofighter/Typhoon. In 1981 – 83 he attended the German Armed Forces Staff College.

During his career he held numerous national and international staff and command positions, i.e. squadron commander, group commander, commander of a fighter wing, staff officer within the German MOD, staff officer at NATO Headquarters SHAPE, Belgium, commander of the NATO AWACS Component, Director Flight Safety of the German Armed Forces, commander of a German Air Division in Berlin and Deputy Commander NATO Air Forces Northern Europe, Ramstein.

In his last assignment he was Chief of Staff of the German Air Force from January 2004 to October 2009. Today he is engaged as senior advisor and consultant.

The featured photo shows the day when the Tornado bombers of the German Air Force are sent to their mission to Afghanistan.

Franz Josef JUNG l CDU federal minister of defence is together with general Klaus Peter STIEGLITZ/

April 2, 2007.

Credit: Alamay.