2013-01-29 The latest issue of Strategic Insights provides a comprehensive look at some of the key maritime security threats for 2013.
The forecasts presented in the new issue look at two types of risks for – or threats to – maritime operations: direct and indirect threats
Firstly, there are the direct threats. These are typically piracy, terrorist attacks, and robberies and thefts where merchant vessels or other maritime assets are directly targeted. In the sense that these threats are the outcome of identifiable factors, their likelihood and consequence can be more accurately charted. Surprises will continue to happen, but more on the side of likelihood than consequence.
For example, the frequency of pirate attacks off Somalia has dropped, but the consequences are largely the same. The future is not like the past entered through another gate, it is the same gate. In this case, though, the variable might be whether the reason for the decline – the inability of Somali pirates to adapt to a new business model that has increased their risk levels due to BMP, including armed guards, and better patrolling by coalition warships – has been accurately identified. If so, we will be able to chart changes to the model. If not, there will be surprises.
Secondly, there are the indirect threats. These are typically onshore events that spill over into the maritime domain, such as civil wars, insurgencies, rapid political changes, or environmental factors. The outcomes might be the chance of getting caught in crossfires, port closures, increased refugee flows, or increased insurance and security costs for operating in particular areas that might be subject to war risk premiums or require additional measures to ensure business continuity. In these cases, recent history might be a poor guide to what will happen next time – the past entered through another gate. For example, political unrest in Egypt has to date left Suez Canal operations untouched due to the security given to the Canal by Egypt’s military that was never tested. There a fewer guarantees next time around that this security will not be tested.
Among issues addressed in the January 2013 edition of Strategic Insights are the following:
- Nigeria: Domestic Insecurity and Piracy in the Bight of Benin
- A look at the threat of Somali piracy in 2013
- An examination of the South East Asian maritime security situation for 2013
- A look at the simmering pot which is Yemen in 2013
- A look at threats to the maritime business seen from North African developments in 2013
- A look at the impact of Syria and terrorist threats to East Mediterranean maritime security
For the latest issue of Strategic Insights go to the following location: