Beginning with the year 2020, we have published an annual publication to highlight defense dynamics and developments over the past five years. This provides a unique insight into developments during this period by providing assessments published in real time during that period.
We started with 2020 and highlighted the pandemic year. After that we started the series officially with ts annual identification, namely Defense XXI, Defense XII and Defense XXIII.
The period from 2020-2024 witnessed a period of rapid change and uncertainty in the global security environment. These changes underscore the need for adaptation and innovation in defense thinking, with a focus on emerging technologies, strengthening alliances, and preparing for a multipolar world order.
2024 was a notably year in the evolution of the competition between the liberal democracies and the authoritarian powers. The liberal democracies are working to adapt their forces to the kind of competition which is posed by a multi-polar authoritarian challenge. It is no longer the bi-polar Cold War or the land wars as part of the “Global War on Terrorism” which is on offer. It is about the very survival of the “rules-based order” which has allowed the liberal democracies to hope for the end of history.
Rather than that, we are facing the end to our illusions. The essays in this book by the Second Line of Defense and Defense.info team address not only the challenges but the practical steps being taken by U.S. and allied militaries to adapt to this new and evolving situation.
The wars in the Middle East in Europe and the engagement of the Chinese Communist Party led Chinese state in expanded gray zone operations have defined a growing lethal environment. The illusions of a peaceful global path via globalization have been exposed. So what comes next?
The book features articles examining the war in Ukraine, its impact on European and global security, the rise of multipolar authoritarianism, and the evolving roles of various actors, including the U.S. Russia, China, and NATO.
The book also explores technological advancements in weaponry, such as the F-35 and various drone systems, and their implications for modern warfare.
Finally, it addresses the changing dynamics of defense industrial strategies, and the challenges faced by the U.S. military in recruitment and retention.
Some of the major themes discussed in the book addressed are the following:
The Rise of Multipolar Authoritarianism and its Impact on Defense
The period witnessed a shift towards a multipolar world order, with authoritarian states like Russia and China increasingly challenging the existing Western-led system. This trend has significant implications for defense:
- Shifting Alliances: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened NATO and driven closer collaboration amongst European nations. This is evident in increased defense spending, joint exercises, and collaborative procurement programs (e.g., 155mm artillery shells). However, Russia has cultivated relationships in the “Global South,” undermining Western attempts to isolate Moscow.
- Nuclear Proliferation Concerns: Experts express concerns about the opaque nuclear calculus of emerging nuclear powers, potentially disrupting the established nuclear deterrence framework.
- Focus on Emerging Technologies: Both authoritarian and democratic states are investing heavily in technologies like unmanned systems (USVs, UAVs, UUVs), hypersonic missiles, and advanced air and missile defense systems to gain a competitive edge.
The Evolving Nature of Naval Warfare
Naval warfare is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by:
- Modular Platforms and Payloads: The concept of modular warships capable of hosting a variety of payloads for different missions is gaining traction. This approach, exemplified by Danish shipbuilding, allows for greater flexibility and adaptability in response to evolving threats.
- Unmanned Systems Integration: USVs, UAVs, and UUVs are being integrated into naval operations, acting as force multipliers and enabling distributed maritime operations. Examples include:
- Ukraine’s successful use of unmanned systems against Russian naval assets in the Black Sea.
- The US Navy’s emphasis on fielding a hybrid fleet composed of both crewed and uncrewed vessels.
- Maritime Kill Web: The integration of sensors, shooters, and communication networks is creating a “kill web” environment, where information is rapidly shared and coordinated to engage targets efficiently.
Key Technological Advancements and Their Implications
Several technological developments are shaping the future of defense:
- Hypersonic Missiles: The development of hypersonic missiles, with their speed and maneuverability, poses a significant challenge to existing defense systems, necessitating a reevaluation of defense strategies.
- Directed Energy Weapons: Laser weapons are nearing operational capability, offering a potentially game-changing capability in countering missile threats and other targets.
- Advanced Radar Systems: Powerful radar systems like the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) in Alaska are crucial for missile defense and space domain awareness.
Regional Dynamics and Defense Partnerships
The book highlights specific regional dynamics shaping defense strategies:
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- Indo-Pacific: The Philippines are bolstering their defense capabilities in response to China’s assertive actions in the region. They are focusing on developing a comprehensive archipelagic defense concept, incorporating land-based strike missiles, UAVs, USVs, and partnerships with the US and Japan.
- North Atlantic: NATO’s northern flank is experiencing increased activity and integration. The US Marine Corps is experimenting with new operational concepts in the region, leveraging land-based forces to support naval operations and working closely with Nordic partners.
- South Korea and Iraq Partnership: South Korea’s $2.8 billion deal to supply Iraq with air defense systems reflects South Korea’s growing influence in the Middle East defense market and Iraq’s efforts to strengthen its “defense by denial” capabilities.
For a podcast which discusses this book, see the following: