The “Lead User” Approach to Transformation

07/16/2026

By Robbin Laird

In the climate-controlled briefing rooms of the Washington Beltway, military transformation is an elegant affair. It is presented on high-gloss slides through “The Center”that constellation of formal command organizations where authority, budget reviews, and the Washington consensus reside. In this world, the prevailing obsession is with acquisition lists: which billion-dollar weapons systems to buy, when to field them, and how to describe their revolutionary potential to congressional appropriators. The language of transformation in these rooms is fluent and confident, even when its relationship to operational reality is tenuous at best.

But move away from the Center and toward “The Field” into the maintenance hangars, the ready decks, the forward operating bases where aircraft are turned and re-armed in the dark and the narrative shifts fundamentally. Out there, the focus is not on the slide deck. It is on the people, the immediate tasks, and the organizational networks required to survive contact with a thinking, adaptive enemy. The gap between strategic concept and tactical reality is not merely a communications failure. It is structural, and it is wide.

The core truth of modern defense is that genuine transformation is not a top-down bureaucratic event. It is a lived experience driven by practitioners. The Washington consensus is a map, but the practitioner’s experience is the terrain. If we want to understand how war is actually changing not how it is described in acquisition documents, but how it is fought, we have to examine how innovation actually happens when elegant theories meet the stubborn friction of the flight deck, the cockpit, and the forward line of troops. That examination is what my book on military transformation undertakes.

The “Lead User” Secret: Innovation Is a Bottom-Up Sport

We are conditioned to think of innovation as a lightning bolt of genius descending from a laboratory, a moment of scientific revelation that cascades downward through bureaucratic channels until it reaches the field. In reality, the most consequential military innovations of the past generation have followed an entirely different model: what business schools have long called the “Lead User” approach, and what the Pentagon’s centralized planners have systematically failed to institutionalize.

The principle is straightforward, even if the execution is difficult: give a prototype to an operational unit and let them find a way to break it, fix it, and eventually weaponize it. The unit with the most demanding operational problem becomes the crucible in which real capability is forged.

This follows a distinction drawn by the physicist Freeman Dyson between “Scientific Advances”, the top-down conceptual breakthroughs that reorganize our understanding of the world and “New Instruments”, the bottom-up discoveries enabled by new tools that reveal phenomena theorists had not yet imagined. Just as the telescope and the microscope opened vistas that no theorist had predicted, platforms like the F-35 or the ROVER system are new instruments in the Dysonian sense. They are not simply better versions of what came before; they are windows into operational possibilities that cannot be fully specified in advance.

To capture the innovation that emerges from lead users, institutions must follow a disciplined three-step approach: identifying the specific operational subunits where the payoff for new technology is highest; capturing the organizational learning that results, ensuring that the adaptations discovered by a lone pilot or a creative maintainer are codified into collective wisdom rather than lost when that individual rotates; and integrating the insights of various units so the larger institution can eventually absorb and standardize the change.

Each step is harder than it sounds, and failure at any one of them allows the innovation to die within the unit that created it. As defense scholar Paul Bracken has observed, “The Field has the warfighters in the services and in the commands that go to war and that seriously plan for it. The Field is also where the enemy actually is.” That proximity to the enemy is not merely geographic; it is epistemological. The Field knows things the Center does not.

The Innovation Protector: Why Every Revolution Needs a Guardian Angel

Bureaucracies are not designed for transformation. They are designed to manage routine at scale, minimize variance, and protect established budget categories. These are not pathologies; they are features, appropriate to the task of sustaining large organizations through periods of stability. But they become catastrophic liabilities when genuine change is required. Left to their own devices, bureaucratic institutions will naturally stifle and crush any innovation that threatens existing program-of-record investments, established career pathways, or the conceptual frameworks that give senior leaders their authority.

This is why every genuine revolution in military affairs requires what might be called an Innovation Protector: a leader with the strategic courage, the institutional standing, and the willingness to absorb political risk on behalf of the innovators working beneath them. Without such protection, the bureaucracy does not need to mount a frontal assault on a promising new capability. It simply surrounds it with secondary requirements, buries it in working groups, and waits for the budget cycle to do its work.

The tenure of Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne offers a clarifying example. During the development of the Joint Unmanned Combat Air System (J-UCAS), the program faced a classic bureaucratic strangulation attempt. At a pivotal meeting, officials moved to kill the autonomous “wolf pack” drone concept by insisting that all vehicle development be halted until the peripheral problem of air-to-air refueling was resolved. The tactic was elegant in its cynicism: by elevating a secondary requirement to the status of a blocking condition, the opponents of the program could starve the primary innovation of developmental oxygen without ever having to say directly that they opposed it.

Wynne recognized the maneuver immediately. In a demonstration of what might be called principled contrarianism, he picked up his one-inch-thick briefing binder and sent it sliding down the conference table Frisbee-style, instructing the briefers to return when they had something substantive to offer.

The gesture was theatrical, but its purpose was entirely serious: to signal unambiguously that the guardian of the program understood the game being played and would not permit it. By acting as a guardian angel for the autonomous cooperation concept, Wynne created the protected developmental space the technology needed to mature before the bureaucracy could neutralize it. The lesson is not that senior leaders should be temperamental. It is that protecting innovation sometimes requires making the cost of obstruction visible and personal.

From Radio Shack to the Combat Cloud

The most disruptive military technology of the past two decades did not emerge from a multi-year program of record, a defense industry laboratory, or a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency grand challenge. It emerged from a Chief Warrant Officer asking a simple question. When CWO Manuel saw an AC-130 gunship receiving a video feed from an unmanned aerial vehicle overhead, he asked why the soldier on the ground couldn’t see what the drone was seeing. The question was obvious once asked. No one had asked it before.

Major Greg Harbins took that spark and did what practitioners with genuine initiative have always done: he built something. He did not wait for a contract vehicle, a program office, or a requirements document. He used a Panasonic ruggedized laptop and components sourced from Radio Shack. What emerged from that improvisation was the prototype for the ROVER, the Remotely Operated Video Enhanced Receiver, a system that would fundamentally restructure the relationship between ground forces and air power. It was, at its origin, an unofficial, non-program box. It became one of the defining capabilities of the counterinsurgency era.

What ROVER accomplished operationally was to compress the kill chain by creating a horizontal command structure where a Lieutenant in the mud and a General in the Air Operations Center were looking at the exact same picture simultaneously. The traditional kill chain had been hierarchical: decisions required traversing multiple echelons of approval, each level adding latency and each handoff introducing risk of misinterpretation. It was voice-dependent, sequential, and biased toward authorization rather than action. The ROVER-enabled kill chain was decentralized: tactical elements could make engagement decisions based on real-time data, using indirect-fire platforms with a precision and responsiveness that had previously been impossible. The person with the most immediate knowledge of the situation could act on it.

This compression of the kill chain from a hierarchical chain into what would later be theorized as a kill web, a distributed network of sensors, decision-makers, and effectors capable of dynamic self-organization, did not begin with a concept paper. It began with a question in a hangar and a trip to Radio Shack. The institutional challenge is how to recognize that moment before it becomes history.

Building New Mental Furniture: The Digital Aircraft Myth

The hardest problem in military transformation is not hardware. The hardware can be built, fielded, and sustained through well-understood programmatic mechanisms. The hardest problem is cognitive: overcoming what might be called the Belief Gap, the profound difficulty of genuinely believing in a capability you have never personally witnessed. Human beings are conservative in their mental models. We categorize the unfamiliar by analogy to the familiar, and in doing so, we systematically underestimate the discontinuity that genuinely new instruments represent.

The CH-53K is a case in point. The aircraft shares a physical silhouette with its predecessor and carries the same numerical designation, but it is so fundamentally different in its architecture, its digital flight control systems, its integrated health and usage monitoring, its vastly expanded lift margins, that it would more accurately have been designated the CH-55. The legacy designation creates a legacy mental model, and that mental model constrains how operators, maintainers, and planners think about what the aircraft can and cannot do. The institutional instinct is to fight the new war with the old war’s concepts, using the new tool as a more capable version of what it replaced rather than as an entirely different instrument.

The same dynamic afflicts the F-35. The aircraft is persistently categorized as a stealthy shooter, a fifth-generation fighter that can penetrate defended airspace and deliver ordnance with reduced detectability. That categorization is not wrong, but it is radically incomplete. The F-35 is, more precisely, a sensor-fused information node that happens to carry weapons. Its transformative contribution to joint operations is not its stealth or its kinetic payload; it is its capacity to collect, fuse, and distribute sensor data across a networked battlespace to other platforms and decision-makers who cannot see what it sees. Operators who understand the F-35 as a shooter are using it at perhaps thirty percent of its operational potential. Those who understand it as a network node enabling the entire joint force are beginning to approach what the aircraft was actually designed to accomplish.

Building the new mental furniture required to think correctly about these instruments demands more than familiarization flights and platform-specific training. It requires what the Maritime Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance community has termed the development of Warrior Solution Architects, officers who do not merely fly platforms or operate sensors, but who design the information ecosystems that allow the joint force to find, fix, track, and engage targets in contested environments.

Managing Chaos, Not Crises

The conceptual framework that dominated American strategic thinking through the Cold War and into the post-Cold War period was built around crisis management: the identification of a destabilizing event, the marshaling of appropriate diplomatic and military instruments, and the restoration of a system to a stable equilibrium. Crisis management assumes that stability is the normal condition and that crises are temporary disruptions to be resolved. It is a framework for managing exceptions.

That framework has become dangerously obsolete. We have entered an era not of periodic crises interrupting a stable international order, but of persistent, compounding turbulence in which no stable equilibrium exists to be restored. The appropriate response is not crisis management but chaos management—the development of organizational structures, doctrinal frameworks, and cognitive tools that allow institutions to operate effectively within persistent complexity rather than hoping to resolve it.

This transition has direct implications for how we think about military transformation. The Manifesto of the Unfinished Revolution, as this book develops it, rests on five interconnected recognitions.

First, platforms alone are insufficient: operational impact is determined by how operators employ technology within a wider, integrated ecosystem of sensors, networks, and human judgment.

Second, cognitive training must evolve from individual skill mastery to the management of complex networked systems under conditions of ambiguity and time pressure.

Third, technological superiority is transient, not permanent: real adversaries adapt, and the advantage conferred by any specific capability degrades from the moment of its first operational use.

Fourth, the most successful transformational changes emerge from practitioners solving immediate problems, not from isolated replacement programs driven by acquisition bureaucracies.

Fifth, the Implementation Gap or the distance between strategic concept and tactical reality is not a failure of communication; it is the most fertile ground for genuine innovation, if institutions can learn to cultivate it rather than eliminate it.

Conclusion: The Unfinished Revolution

Transformation is a process to be managed, not a project to be completed. This is perhaps the most important and most consistently ignored insight in the entire literature of military change. Every generation of defense reformers has been tempted to declare transformation accomplished—to point to a new platform, a new doctrine, a new organizational structure, and announce that the revolution has arrived.

That temptation should be firmly resisted. As Lieutenant General Pasquale Preziosa has observed with characteristic precision in the forward to the book, “Possibility is not policy.” Having the tool is not the same as having the strategy for its employment. Fielding the capability is not the same as building the institutional culture required to use it effectively.

The Radio Shack spirit of CWO Manuel or the willingness to ask an obvious question that nobody had asked and to build an answer from available materials without waiting for institutional permission and the strategic courage of Secretary Wynne, the willingness to absorb political risk to protect an idea that the bureaucracy wished to extinguish, represent the two essential ingredients of genuine military transformation.

Neither is sufficient alone. The innovator without the protector is crushed. The protector without the innovator has nothing to defend. Both require an institutional culture that knows how to recognize what it is seeing when genuine change emerges from the field.

The fundamental question for American defense institutions as they navigate an age of accelerating technological change, renewed great-power competition, and persistent operational complexity is not whether transformation is necessary. That question has been answered by events.

The question is whether those institutions possess the strategic judgment and the institutional humility to revisit their own assumptions, empower the Field over the Center, and recognize that the most powerful weapon in the inventory is a practitioner with a new instrument and the authority to use it.

The lessons documented in the book are not abstract. They come from the hangars and the flight decks, from the exercises and the deployments, from the conversations with operators who have spent their careers at the intersection of new technology and old doctrine.

They are offered in the conviction that understanding how transformation actually happens, messily, iteratively, from the bottom up, and against bureaucratic resistance, is the necessary precondition for managing it wisely. The revolution is unfinished.

The question is whether we are learning fast enough to keep pace with it.