Heading Towards Plan B: FCAS in the Balance?

07/22/2022

By Pierre Tran

Paris – Dassault Aviation hopes Airbus will agree to a clear program leadership in building a next generation fighter, perhaps with a deal formally approved by the end of the year, executive chairman Eric Trappier said July 20.

There was hope for a “decision in the (coming) weeks or in one or two months’ time,” he said, with entry into effect “by the end of the year.”

That was not an ultimatum, said Trappier, speaking at a press conference on Dassault’s first half financial results.

Dassault was actively working on plan B for the new fighter jet, he said, and the priority was to inform the defense ministry before any public disclosure of the fall back option.

Trappier was referring to the reluctance of Airbus Defence and Space to sign a contract for phase 1B work on a technology demonstrator for a next generation fighter, the core element of a future combat air system (FCAS) backed by France, Germany and Spain.

That lack of agreement stems from Airbus DS effectively seeking to be joint prime contractor, while Dassault insists on holding exclusively that lead management role and to be the project architect.

Dassault, headquartered in the Paris suburbs of Saint Cloud, set out the dispute in its results statement.

“Dassault Aviation is prime contractor for pillar 1,” the company said. “The prime contractor/main partner relationship is still to be clarified.

“Dassault Aviation is seeking a clear statement of acceptance of its role as prime contractor by Airbus Defence and Space for the NGF (in symmetry with Eurodrone).”

Dassault sought that lead position for the full fighter program, not just the demonstrator project, Trappier said. The first flight of the demonstrator had already slipped back three years to 2027, and there was prospect of sliding to 2028, he said.

Pillar one refers to the fighter project in FCAS, with the other six pillars comprising fighter engine, remote carriers, combat cloud for network communications, simulator labs, sensors, and stealth.

Airbus was prime contractor on the Eurodrone, and Dassault was happy to be subcontractor, Trappier said.

Eurodrone is a medium-altitude, long-endurance drone, with a budget of €7.1 billion, backed by France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.

Airbus Also Has Plan B

Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury said the focus was to reach agreement on plan A on the future combat air system, but there were other options if the talks broke down.

“There’s a plan A and plan A is FCAS…There are other options, we think of other options but we are working for plan A,” he told Reuters on July 20.

“We want to make it happen. I don’t want to be discussing plan B. That will undermine the likelihood to get to plan A, because plan A is plan A and remains plan A,” he said at the Farnborough air show.

Trappier, asked at the press conference if he spoke to Faury to resolve the dispute, said he spoke often to the top Airbus executive — Airbus was a member of the Gifas aerospace trade association — but rarely about FCAS.

The key interlocutor was Airbus DS chief executive Michael Schoellhorn, he said, as the partners were the Airbus units in Germany and Spain.

“He (Faury) is not German, nor Spanish,” Trappier said.

Asked about Japan joining up with Britain on a new fighter, Trappier pointed up the lead role of BAE Systems on Tempest, and said that was the right approach, one to adopt for the European next generation fighter.

“I advise a strong leadership,” he said.

The partner nations on the European FCAS — France, Germany and Spain — have been drafting a joint statement welcoming the signing of a contract for phase 1B.

That was effectively a high-level political elbow intended to nudge Airbus DS into accepting Dassault’s industrial leadership on the fighter project.

The head of the French Direction Générale de l’Armement procurement office, Joël Barre, met May 10 his German counterpart, and Benedict Zimmer agreed to drafting that joint statement, which included the terms of cooperation in work after phase 1B.

Meanwhile across the English Channel, the U.K. said July 18 Japan was taking part in joint concept analysis on the British Tempest new generation fighter project, with decisions due on whether to enter partnership by the end of the year. Italy was also taking part in that concept analysis.

That raised the prospect of Japan pooling its F-X fighter jet project with the Tempest, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries working with BAE Systems.

The U.K. prime minister, Boris Johnson, said on the same day at the Farnborough air show the Tempest demonstrator would fly in 2027. London has earmarked a budget of £2 billion ($2.4 billion) for the Tempest to 2025, and the Tempest fighter was due to fly in 2035.

The budget for phase 1B has been reported to be worth €3.6 billion ($3.7 billion) and runs 2021 to 2024, while phase 2 runs 2024 to 2027, with a budget of €5 billion, backed by the three partner nations.

Tough Times

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised tension on raw materials, energy, and the supply chain, Trappier said. The company closed its Moscow office for the Falcon business jet and its Dassault Falcon Service, as part of the Western sanctions against Russia.

Russian sanctions against the Western allies put “severe pressure” on the supply chain, forcing Dassault to look for other sources, he said. There was also potential risk on electronic components due to tension between China and Taiwan.

Dassault reported a sharp gain in orders in the first half, with orders worth €16.3 billion, up from €3.9 billion a year ago.

Despite tough business conditions, Dassault reported upbeat financial results.

Rafale export contracts accounted for €13.9 billion of that total amount, up from €1.9 billion, with orders for Falcon jets making up the balance.

The United Arab Emirates paid a deposit in April for its order for 80 Rafales, making up the bulk of those orders, while Greece signed a contract, which came into force in March, for six more Rafales. That brought the total Greek order to 24 Rafales, following an order last year for 18, including 12 second-hand units flown by the French air force.

Dassault expected Indonesia to pay a deposit for an order for 42 Rafales by the end of the year, Trappier said.

That Indonesian deal could then be entered in the order book, once the deposit was paid. That order consisted of an initial six-strong batch, followed by 36 more.

Dassault’s order book rose to €34.1 billion, up from €20.8 billion.

Thales reported July 21 a total order book of €38 billion. Dassault holds 24.6 percent of the electronics company.

Dassault’s adjusted net profit rose to €318 million from €265 million, with a net profit margin of 10.3 percent, compared to 8.5 percent.

Sales were stable at €3.1 billion. The cash holding rose to €6.3 billion, up from €4.9 billion.

Dassault was a small company, with 12,000 employees, Trappier said, and had recruited 700 staff, with a target of 1,300 new hires for the full year.

The forecast for 2022 was unchanged, with a fall in net sales, and delivery of 13 Rafales and 35 Falcons.

The company expected a French order for 42 Rafales, with the 30 units expected for the fifth tranche for the air force, and a further 12 to replace those sent to Greece. That order might be made at the end of 2022 or early 2023.

Dassault continued to seek new Rafale export orders, the company said.

India, Serbia, Iraq, and Colombia were reported to be among prospects.

Featured Graphic: Photo 208690397 © Designer491 | Dreamstime.com

Osprey Training in Support of the Maneuver Force: WTI-2-22

U.S. Marines assigned to Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One (MAWTS-1) conduct flight maneuvers in an MV-22B Osprey, during Weapons and Tactics Instructor (WTI) course 2-22, near Big Bear Lake, California, March 25, 2022.

WTI is a seven-week training event hosted by MAWTS-1, providing standardization advanced tactical training and certification of unit instructor qualifications to support Marine aviation training and readiness and assist in developing and employing aviation weapons and tactics.

03.25.2022

Video by Lance Cpl. Dean Gurule Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron-1

VMFAC-121 onboard USS Tripoli F-35

07/18/2022

The video shows F-35B Lightning II aircraft assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121 conducting flight operations from amphibious assault carrier USS Tripoli (LHA 7), May 23, 2022. Tripoli is conducting routine operations in U.S. 7th Fleet. (U.S. Navy video by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Peter Burghart)

05.23.2022

Video by Petty Officer 1st Class Peter Burghart USS Tripoli (LHA 7)

Perspectives from the French Navy: July 2022

07/16/2022

By Pierre Tran

Paris – The U.S. navy is seeking to forge closer operational ties with the French navy, with the French service invited to plug sensors and data into the U.S. Overmatch project for an extended information network, a French navy officer said July 11.

The offer of greater interoperability was one of the priorities of a visit to the U.S. by French navy chief of staff, admiral Pierre Vandier, who was there June 18-25, the officer said.

That was Vandier’s third and longest visit to the U.S., marking a reset in relations after ties were strained by the September 16 announcement of the AUKUS partnership, with Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. looking to supply the Australian navy with a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines.

The AUKUS plan scuppered a project led by French shipbuilder Naval Group (NG) to build 12 Shortfin Barracuda diesel-electric submarines in Adelaide, southern Australia, in a deal worth an estimated €30 billion (US $30 billion).

Vandier flew to the U.S. a week after Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said June 11 Canberra would pay NG €555 million for cancelling the Barracuda project, and pointed up the need to rebuild close ties with France.

That financial and political settlement renewed relations, with  French president Emmanuel Macron giving Albanese a warm welcome when the Australian leader came July 1 to the Elysée office for their first meeting.

Australia has also changed its navy chief of staff, the officer said, and there are plans for French exercises with the Australian service.

Vice Admiral Mark Hammond took up July 6 the post of chief of the Australian navy, with vice admiral Michael Noonan stepping down after four years in the top job.

There has also been a change at the top in the U.K., with admiral Ben Key promoted to first sea lord, with his predecessor, admiral Tony Radakin, taking up the post of chief of the defense staff.

Vandier spoke to the then French armed forces minister, Florence Parly, before his visit to the U.S. last month, such was the perceived importance of the trip, and the minister spoke to her American counterpart.

The French navy chief met Kurt Campbell when he flew to the U.S. in January, the officer said. Campbell, who reportedly played a key role in setting up the AUKUS submarine deal, is coordinator for the Indo-Pacific on the U.S. National Security Council.

Overmatch is the U.S. navy’s project, along with the air force and army, to set up a network for joint all-domain command and control (JADC2), with the navy’s Overmatch budget second only to the Columbia ballistic missile submarine program, monthly magazine National Defense reported.

The Overmatch project includes cloud computing power, with the U.S. navy partnering with Amazon Web Services to store the vast amount of data, and drawing on artificial intelligence as a tool to sift through the pooled information. A U.S. warship would effectively have two computers onboard, one to fight the war, the other to hold the data, the officer said.

A French team is due to go to the U.S. in September for further discussion on Overmatch, the officer said. It is still early days but it is important to get a head start rather than be left behind, and be out of step.

The French navy is setting up its Polaris project, in Toulon naval base, southern France, forming a center for training and studies for high level naval doctrine, drawing on highly capable combat management systems, the officer said. Overmatch calls for an exchange of information.

The U.S. Navy briefed Vandier on its Pacific strategy on his visit to the west coast, which included the San Diego Naval Information Warfare Center, and going to San Francisco, to visit high tech centers in Silicon Valley. There is an impressive breadth and production of software  in the U.S., the officer said. It is unlikely the French navy would strike a deal with Amazon.

On the east coast, Vandier visited Norfolk naval base and Washington, where he met his U.S. navy counterpart.

Vandier’s latest visit follows the French and the U.S. navy signing in December the strategic interoperability framework agreement, aimed at boosting operational cooperation between the two services.

What is being considered is the right level of cooperation and “synchronization” with the U.S., with the possibility of a dual carrier operation in 2025, sailing west of Singapore, with fourth generation fighters such as the Rafale fighter flying with the fifth generation F-35, the officer said.

In general, there is a need to set priorities as the French navy lacks resources to take on all missions at the same level of urgency — “If everything is important, nothing is important,” the officer said. The main theaters of operations are the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and the Indo-Pacific.

That calls for the joint chiefs of staff to take a strategic view, the officer said. There is perception of average yield for the French contribution to NATO, with strategic yield from operating in the Indian Ocean, making the latter something of the center of gravity for the French navy.

The annual Jeanne d’Arc naval training mission sailed through the Indian-Pacific this year, and the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will sail in the Indo-Pacific later this year, the officer said. On Sept. 16, the day the AUKUS partners announced the Australian submarine project, the European Union published its report on the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific.

In India, where the navy is holding a competition for carrier-borne fighters, France has offered to supply two to four French navy Rafales, if the fighter were chosen, the officer said. If India took up that option, that would lead to a 10 percent cut in the French fleet air arm, which consists of 42 Rafales.

India has not asked for that option, which was offered by the French authorities.

The U.S. has pitched the F/A 18 E/F Super Hornet.

The French presence in the Indian Ocean is seen as taking some pressure off the U.S. Pacific command, which faces growing strength of the Chinese navy.

The U.S. navy is concerned that at the rate China is building warships, the People’s Liberation Army Navy will be 2-1/2 times larger than the U.S. navy by 2030, the officer said. The U.S. navy may be modernizing its fleet, but warships and submarines are simply being replaced rather than being increased in number.

Meanwhile in Europe, there is concern in the Norwegian navy of the prospective Chinese naval reach into the region, the officer said.

That U.S. sense of urgency from the perceived growing threat from China and the need for Australia as a strong ally, led to a “strategic shift,” with Canberra last year sinking the Barracuda project and seeking nuclear-powered boats.

There are talks going on, the officer said, and one of the options is for the U.S. to send the two Virginia class attack boats built each year to the Australian navy.

That would mean the U.S. navy waiting four years before receiving its submarine, as Australia seeks to sail eight nuclear powered boats.

In view of the training, infrastructure, and need to build up an industrial base, it is hard to see an Australian boat sailing under an Australian flag before 2040, the officer said. That calls for a “political decision.”

The Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, published July 14 its note, The Interpreter, which explored three options for the Labor government, which stands to breach the non-nuclear proliferation regime with  the AUKUS submarine plan. The U.K. and U.S. use highly enriched uranium to power their boats, so that weapons grade material stood to be sent to the Australian navy.

The options include Australia switching back to a conventional submarine fleet, asking the U.S. to supply boats powered by low enriched uranium (LEU) – which is unsuitable for nuclear weapons, or ask France to supply LEU powered submarines, as French boats use that form of atomic power.

There would be “political, bureaucratic, legal, and financial” hurdles to the latter option but such a deal would allow Albanese to avoid proliferation of weapons grade uranium and equip the Australian navy, and perhaps create “AUKUS+1,” the note said.

Featured Photo: An MV-22 Osprey with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 163 (Reinforced), 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), lands aboard the flight deck of the French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91).

ANDAMAN SEA

06.07.2019

Photo by Lance Cpl. Dalton Swanbeck 

11th Marine Expeditionary Unit

Disruptive Change in European and Trans-Atlantic Defense and the Nordic Opportunity

By Robbin Laird

The coming of Sweden and Finland into NATO is not simply an additive event.

But the prospect of Nordic defense integratability provides for an opportunity for disruptive change to reset and recast how North Atlantic defense can be done.

When combined with the significant fleet redesign for the U.S. and allied navies associated with the 2018 re-establishment of Second Fleet and the establishment of Joint Force Command—Norfolk, there is a very significant opportunity to focus on how the United States and Canada could rework how they re-enforce Nordic defense while the Nordics themselves shape greater defense capacities to defend themselves against the Russians.

In other words, with the right recalibration of the United States contribution, Canada stepping up its contribution and the Nordics working new ways to integrate their forces, both the warfighting and deterrent functions of North Atlantic defense can be enhanced cost effectively and intelligently, truly embodying what some analysts referred to as “smart defense” in earlier times.

But the opportunity needs to be recognized, worked and creativity in reshaping the concepts of operations, and force development.

In an earlier piece, I highlighted this possibility in an interview with the former head of the Danish Navy, Rear Admiral (Retired) Nils Wang.

In that piece, I underscored: “the prospect of shaping really for the first time a Northern Europe integrated defense force able to operate throughout the area in a distributed manner shapes significant opportunities for innovations and rethinking. How to best shape capabilities going forward and how best to connect diverse platforms in a multi-domain manner across the defense space up to and including projecting power into Russia itself in case of conflict?”

I then added: “The opportunity for much better Nordic defense coordination and working integrated concepts of operations provides a significant challenge for the Nordic nations.

“The ability to respond to the opportunity would be attenuated in Wang’s view by “legacy” military thinking that is focused simply on “more of the same” building out traditional platforms, rather than focusing on force integrability or in my terms how to do the core missions with the required payloads through the kinds of platforms which can accelerate force integration.”

Ed Timperlake and I in our very recently published book, A Maritime Kill Web Force in the Making: Deterrence and Warfighting in the 21st Century, highlighted how important we saw the Norfolk innovations begun in 2018 by the U.S. and allied navies.

We have provided an excerpt from chapter eight where we describe the innovations launched from 2018 on Second Line of Defense.

That excerpt starts: The U.S. Navy is shaping an integrated distributed force. Working connectivity throughout the force and working new ways to shape modular task forces provides the capability for the U.S. Navy to be more lethal, survivable, and effective and lays down the foundation for working new technologies into the fleet along the lines of the payload/utility kill web approach which we discuss in the next chapter.

The standup of new fleets in Norfolk to deal with the Russian threat starting in 2018 provides a case study of such change. We spent time with the command as well as with the North Carolina-based Marines to understand how the relaunch of Second Fleet and the standup of a new NATO command in the United States drive and reflect the changes in fleet operations shaping a way ahead for a distributed force within integratable kill webs.

Second Fleet and Allied Joint Force Command Norfolk were placed under the command of Vice Adm. Lewis to launch the new approach and to shape the initial way ahead. According to his original deputy, Vice Adm. Mustin, who is now head of the Naval Reserves, “What made us successful over the last 20 years, post 9/11, is not what’s going to make us successful into the next few decades.

Working with Vice Adm. Lewis has been important as well. As Second Fleet Commander, he clearly understands that we need to shape a new approach. When I was in High School in the 80’s, my father was Second Fleet Commander, so I can legitimately say that “The new Second Fleet is not your father’s Second Fleet.” He went on to add that “What Vice Adm. Lewis wants and what we are offering started with a clean sheet of paper as it relates to the design of the reserve force for C2F.”

The opportunity which the U.S. Navy has had to standup a new fleet in Norfolk to deal with North Atlantic defense as well as to work interactively with the standup of the only NATO operational command on U.S. territory has clearly allowed for shaping an innovative way ahead for fleet operations, and joint and allied integration to deal with the Russian, not the Soviet threat.”

Recently, I had a chance to discuss with Vice Admiral (Retired) Lewis the potential synergy between Nordic defense developments and the standup and now operations of C2F and Joint Force Command – Norfolk.

This is what he had to say: “With the changes in the Nordic region, there will be an opportunity, for JFC Norfolk to become a four-star command on an equivalent level with JFC Brunssum and Naples from a rank standpoint.

“We could also have a subordinate command physically stationed in the Nordic nations, that would have the effect of pulling the continents together whereas JFC Norfolk is stationed obviously in the continental United States.

“This would allow for significant innovation in thinking through how, in a practical sense, operations from east to west and west to east in the North Atlantic battlespace.”

The Nordics are thinking about establishing a Nordic command that is fully integrated with NATO.

As Lewis noted: “If such a change happens, they would enhance their ability to defend themselves (Article III NATO) , but also to be able to contribute to the common defense of NATO and throughout the Arctic, into the Atlantic (Article V NATO).”

From VADM (Retired) Lewis’s perspective, working more innovative ways to integrate Nordic with the North Atlantic continent operations is a key aspect of agility.

As he noted: “I see agility as in three aspects. First, there is physical agility. In the case of Second Fleet this means being able to move across the Atlantic and the Arctic, in the physical domain and also in the electromagnetic spectrum.

“The second aspect of agility is being able to operate throughout the spectrum of warfare. That means being able day one to be operate from peace-time operations through full-out war, and maritime forces are particularly suited to being able to do so.

“Third, is agility of thought which equates to shaping effective disruptive change which positions the force to be more effective in changing conditions.

“The third aspect challenges traditional military thinking. There’s never an appetite, particularly in a bureaucratic organization, which all militaries are by definition, and particularly peace-time militaries for disruptive, innovative-type thinking. But we clearly have an opportunity being opened up by change in the Nordic region.”

Featured Graphic: Credit: https://www.mappr.co/thematic-maps/nordic-countries/

A Maritime Kill Web Force in the Making

Airlifting the CH-53K to Germany

07/14/2022

U.S. Air Force aircrew members from the 16th Airlift Squadron and U.S. Marines from Marine Test and Evaluation Squadron-1, airlift a CH-53K King Stallion via a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III from U.S. Marine Corps Air Station New River, N.C., to Berlin, June 14, 2022.

JOINT BASE CHARLESTON, SC

06.14.2022

Video by Tech. Sgt. Daniel Asselta

1st Combat Camera Squadron

And for a video which is not crafted as a time-lapse video, see the following: