Balikatan 22

04/13/2022

U.S. Navy Aviation Boatswain’s Mate 3rd Class Ethan Bowser signals a UH-1Y Venom assigned to Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 369 (HMLA-369) to land aboard the USS Miguel Keith (ESB-5) ahead of Balikatan 22, Mar. 19, 2022.

The Miguel Keith, a Lewis B. Puller-class Expeditionary Mobile Base Ship, is a highly flexible platform that provides logistics movement from sea to shore supporting a broad range of military operations.

Balikatan is an annual exercise between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and U.S. military designed to strengthen bilateral interoperability, capabilities, trust, and cooperation built over decades shared experiences.

Balikatan, Tagalog for ‘shoulder-to-shoulder,’ is a longstanding bilateral exercise between the Philippines and the United States highlighting the deep-rooted partnership between both countries.

Balikatan 22 is the 37th iteration of the exercise and coincides with the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippine security cooperation.

PHILIPPINES
03.19.2022
Video by Sgt. Kallahan Morris
Exercise Balikatan

The German F-35 Decision and Its Cascading Effects on German Defense

04/12/2022

By Robbin Laird

At the end of February 2022, the German chancellor announced a new way ahead with regard to German defense and the immediacy required for upgrading German defense capabilities.

Relatively shortly after that the German government announced a decision to acquire F-35s to replace their gaining Tornados, which provides the current nuclear option for Germany.

Although the F-35 in this sense is “replacing” an aging ground attack aircraft, the F-35 is not literally speaking a replacement aircraft.

As I have argued for many years, the F-35 global enterprise is really about re-norming combat aircraft for 21st century defense.

When I attended the International Fighter Conference in Berlin in 2018, there was a spirited discussion of the F-35 option now versus the wait and acquire a 2040 replacement aircraft via the future combat air system being shaped by France and Spain along with Germany.

The Russians seemed to have shifted the timeline for a needed new fighter to the immediate period, but at the time it was clear that the Luftwaffe wanted the F-35 in the near term.

This how two former Chiefs of the Luftwaffe, one of whom was fired over expressing his publc opinion on the importance for Germany of acquiring the F-35, put it:

“With the decision not to procure the F-35, Italy and Great Britain not only consolidate their leading role in the field of European NATO air forces, they also gain valuable technological Know-how and secure high-tech jobs. Incidentally, both countries are also involved in the Eurofighter, which, despite intended further developments, offers far less high-tech potential in the coming years than the F-35.

“That the F-35 could hardly be beaten in a fair competition is proven by the competitions already held in Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium. The F-35 clearly won in all relevant categories against all European and US competitors, including the Eurofighter.

“The performance of the F-35 is undisputed, the operating costs are at a comparable level, especially in the logistical network with the partner nations, and the initial costs are significantly lower than those of a Eurofighter.

“Together with the future European F-35 nations Italy and Great Britain, these European countries will then have the world’s most advanced fighter aircraft, which, with its unique capabilities, will open completely new doors to European and transatlantic military cooperation in operations and operations. Nations like Germany, but also France, will only be in the second or third row.”

With a reversal of this early decision not to procure the F-35, Germany will now join in the broader F-35 enterprise which is delivering Europe’s core air combat capability for the foreseeable future. With the ability of the F-35s to fight as wolfpacks, the ability of Germany to train, learn and evolve their F-35s in conjunction with their core geographical partners and allies will be significant as well.

But the coming of the F-35 to the German forces can have a much wider reaching impact than simply “replacing” the Tornado or even the significant coalition consequences.

The “flying combat system” which is the F-35 triggers further changes in the air-ground-naval forces which German has and will develop.

For example, this decision clearly highlights the importance of Germany building out its force transformation capabilities such as acquiring the CH-53K, a digital aircraft, which the Marines are integrating with the F-35 in shaping their ability to enhance force mobility in the combat space.

And for Germany, moving force to the point of impact against an adversary always looking to exploit the seams in the Alliance, such a capability is crucial.

For Germany to get full value out of its F-35 acquisition, opening up the possibilities for force development and transformation driven by the operation of this aircraft with its allies over the extended battlespace crucial to German and European security.

Featured Photo: Four U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter aircraft, assigned to the 421st Fighter Squadron, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, arrive for training at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, June 11, 2019. The Theater Security Package helps demonstrate and exercise the capabilities of the aircraft in various environments, enhancing integration between the U.S. and its allies. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Jovante Johnson)

Germany Re-Boots its Defense Efforts in the Middle of the Russian Ukraine Invasion

In the Presence of War in Europe, Germany to Join F-35 Global Enterprise

Germany, Fighters and the Future of Air Combat: Perspectives from the International Fighter Conference, 2018

 

German Defense Policy at a Crossroads: The Tornado Successor Issue

 

Working Hypersonic Cruise Missiles: MBDA Provides an Update

By Pierre Tran

Paris – There appears to be no problem in setting up flight tests of a French technology demonstrator for a hypersonic cruise missile in the U.S., the executive chairman of European missile company MBDA said April 6.

“I am not aware of any particular problem,” Eric Béranger said on the margins of a press conference, when asked why a test flight of the demonstrator, dubbed Lea, had yet to be made.

Hypersonic missiles – weapons which fly at Mach 5 and above – have hit headlines around the world, with Australia, the U.K. and U.S. saying they will cooperate on the high tech weapons through the trilateral AUKUS alliance.

“We also committed today to commence new trilateral cooperation on hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and electronic warfare capabilities, as well as to expand information sharing and to deepen cooperation on defense innovation,” the partner nations said April 5 in a joint statement.

That extension of Western cooperation followed Russia’s March 19 statement of the first combat use of the air-launched hypersonic cruise missile, dubbed Kinzhal or Dagger, in the assault on Ukraine. The Russians released a video of that airstrike and Moscow also released Russian television reporting in December 2021 of a naval launch of a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, with British tabloid dailies showing March 14 the video on their websites.

Béranger said he had read media reports of the AUKUS statement, and while he could not comment on the contents, it was clear MBDA has been working on hypersonic technology for “decades.”

“This is a capability where we are extremely competent,” he said. “You know that we are developing something which is hypersonic. And so in terms of technical capability, MBDA doesn’t have anything to envy anybody.”

MBDA has been working with Onera, he said, and is working on a program for a fourth generation air-launched, nuclear-tipped missile, with the project name ASN4G. Onera is the French research agency for civil and military technology. The planned hypersonic, scramjet air-launched nuclear missile would fit on a planned next generation fighter, replacing the supersonic ASMP-A atomic weapon carried on the Rafale fighter jet.

The flight test of Lea had been due to take place at a U.S. air base on the East coast in a few months, an Onera executive said last July. The French project name Lea comes from the Russian phrase for “flight test vehicle,” a RAND report on non-proliferation of hypersonic missiles said in 2017.

“Our research suggests that France could play a key role in organizing the international community for such (non-proliferation) controls, the report said.

French flight tests of Lea had been planned in Russia in 2014-15, the report said, and it was not clear whether those tests had been conducted. Full-scale wind tunnel tests to Mach 6 were conducted on Lea in 2012.

Flight tests of Lea had been planned on a Russian Tupolev Tu-22 M3 “Backfire” bomber to test the missile at Mach 4-8, Onera and MBDA said in a 2009 Nato research note. That planned flight test would have used a booster based on the Russian Raduga AS4 missile.

The NATO research note appeared a year after the Russian 2008 invasion of Georgia ordered by president Vladimir Putin.

The planned Lea flight tests in Russia in 2014-15 would have taken place around the time of Putin’s ordering annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula, and backing Russian separatist movements seizing control in the Donbass region, eastern Ukraine.

Western allies have been criticized for failing to act earlier against Moscow, amid extensive news coverage of summary execution, torture, and harsh treatment of Ukrainian civilians by occupying Russian troops.

The Ukrainian services have forced a Russian retreat from the north, with a redeployment back to the east of the partially occupied country. France 24 television channel ran a check of “truth or fake” on a video released by the Russian defense ministry claiming to be the Kinzahl hypersonic missile strike of the Deliatyn underground ammunition dump in western Ukraine.

With the help of satellite imagery, the television reporter showed the Russian video was the replay of an airstrike the week before, against a farmhouse some 1,000 km away in the east of Ukraine, not the munitions storage site.

In French projects on hypersonic weapons, ArianeGroup was flight testing a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) in a “proof-of-concept for a future deep-strike weapon,” Aviation Week Aerospace Daily & Defense Report said Dec. 21. That hypersonic demonstrator was part of the Experimental Maneuvering Vehicle (V-Max) program announced in 2019.

The demonstrator was being tested in Onera’s S4 wind tunnel, the report said, and the planned hypersonic weapon would be armed with a conventional warhead. ArianeGroup builds space launchers and is a joint venture between Airbus and Safran.

The State of the U.S. Efforts

An official U.S. report on research on hypersonic missiles for American forces said test flight facilities were struggling to meet deadlines.

The General Accountability Office published March 22, 2022 a report on work on hypersonic weapons, based on a January report which contained classified information. The 54-page report pointed up aggressive schedules, with program officials and documents admitting the timetable for delivering operational hypersonic missiles was “ambitious.”

Those timetables depended on other programs, and “will be difficult to achieve,” the report said. Logistical difficulties for test flights were among the problems, leading the defense department to explore “international partnerships that could provide access to overland flight ranges.”

Australia has the Woomera test range, South Australia, where the U.K. conducted in 2013 and 2014 test flights of the Taranis demonstrator for an unmanned combat aerial vehicle. The Queensland authorities said in November a test flight range for drones was open for business.

Some $15 billion has been earmarked for fiscal years 2015 through 2024, to fund 70 projects to develop U.S. hypersonic weapons and related technology, the GAO said, with the defense department accounting for most of the funds. The Pentagon works with the department of energy and Nasa.

There were difficulties on test flights on the hypersonic air-launched weapon, which put pressure on deadlines for an operational deployment.

“We found in June 2020 that the Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon program experienced a cascading delay of all four of its planned flight tests, which put additional pressure on the program’s plans to achieve an operational capability by the end of fiscal year 2022,” the report said.

The Pentagon needed to tighten program management to avoid wasting money.

“Without clear leadership roles, responsibilities, and authorities, DOD (department of defense) is at risk of impeding its progress toward delivering hypersonic weapon capabilities and opening up the potential for conflict and wasted resources as decisions over larger investments are made in the future,” the GAO said. The defense department agreed with the recommendation for closer management.

The featured photo is of Eric Béranger at the April 6, 2022 press conference. Credit: MBDA

And on the MBDA website, Eric Béranger is quoted at the press conference as follows:

“Our mission is crystal clear – to support the sovereignty and peaceful prosperity of our nations by delivering the essential military capabilities that they need.

In these troubled times and in such a fast-moving environment, sovereignty and the capacity to adapt are the priorities for our industry.

In 2021, MBDA managed to continue to deliver on its mission with great commitment and for this I want to thank the tireless team spirit and resilience of everyone in MBDA. Now more than ever, we see how vital defence is for our society”.

U.S. Marines Conduct Night-Time Exercises With F-35B

U.S. Marines with Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron (VMFAT) 501 performing night-time aerial operations at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, March 22, 2022.

VMFAT-501 deployed to Mountain Home Air Force Base to train entry-level pilots to be proficient at close air-support and high-explosive ordnance drops to better support their future squadrons.

VMFAT-501 is a subordinate unit of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, the aviation element of II Marine Expeditionary Force.

MOUNTAIN HOME AIR FORCE BASE, ID, UNITED STATES

03.22.2022

Video by Pvt. Rowdy Vanskike

2nd Marine Aircraft Wing

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Driver of Change in European Defense

04/05/2022

by Pierre Tran

Paris – It looks like Kremlin’s bloody advance through Ukraine has boosted Europe’s resolve to forge its own operational defense and security identity.

The European Union added Feb. 24 a redrafted forward to its Strategic Compass policy paper on defense and security to refer to the Russian assault, which has transformed four million Ukrainian citizens into refugees, fleeing a European nation devastated and partly occupied by troops from just across the border.

While there is clear intent from some European political leaders, there is also skepticism whether that willingness will convert intention into reality.

It remains to be seen whether there will be political leadership in that quest for European capability, and where that direction will come from.

Paris is keen to promote a European military capability – separate but working with Nato, while Berlin has pledged an unprecedented €100 billion ($111 billion) budget to upgrade German military, breaking with a deep and sustained pacifism after the second world war.

Berlin’s budget boost begs the question where leadership in Europe will come from, as Germany will outstrip France in arms spending, a French parliamentarian said.

Rise In Risk

“The war against Ukraine proves that Europe is even more in danger than we thought just a few months ago, when the first draft of this Strategic Compass was presented,” Josep Borrell, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said in a revised forward for the white paper published Feb. 21.

“This crisis has made it even clearer that we live in a world shaped by raw power politics, where everything is weaponized and where we face a fierce battle of narratives,” he said. “All these trends were already happening before the Ukraine war; now they are accelerating.”

Defense for Europe was one of the priorities of Emmanuel Macron, French head of state, when he took up in January the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, the policy-setting institution. “Europe must rise to the major economic, educational, migration and military challenges,” he said Dec. 9 2021, ahead of taking up the European Council post.

The European Council of the 27 member states adopted the Strategic Compass, which includes plans to form a 5,000-strong European military force, dubbed rapid deployment capacity. The policy paper also calls for “more and better” spending on defense, greater cooperation, and innovation to cut dependency. That EU plan sets a 10-year road map, seeking European sovereignty.

Macron has promoted in his five-year national mandate the concept of European sovereignty, to reduce a reliance on Nato, seen as dominated by the incumbent at the White House.

A chaotic U.S. evacuation from Kabul and lack of cooperation with allies heightened a perceived need among European partners to strengthen their ties.

There is a European perception of the need to develop the national arms industry, maintaining domestic jobs, rather than buying U.S. kit. The Strategic Compass reflects a view of some in France that Nato is an extension of the U.S. market, helping to boost the bottom line of American companies, while pursuing interoperability of equipment.

France Trims Arms Spending – Just For Now

The armed forces ministry had to scramble to explain why there was a quiet unscheduled €346 million cut in the 2022 defense budget of €41 billion, having to reassure the funds would be restored in July.

Some €202 million of the cut related to arms procurement, with the reduction arising from a switch in spending due to the Ukraine crisis, which pushed up energy prices and called for funds for receiving Ukrainian refugees.

Parliamentarian François Cornut-Gentille said in a March 29 op ed in afternoon daily Le Monde there was need for a “real debate” on defense spending, with the major presidential candidates saying they would increase the military budget.

France goes to the polls April 10 and 24 in a two-step election, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen narrowing Macron’s lead in opinion polls. Le Pen has gained ground as she attacks Macron on the rising cost of living, a switch from the anti-immigration message of the National Rally party.

The chances Macron would keep his promise of a defense budget of €50 billion in 2025 are “extremely weak,” Cornut-Gentille said, due to economic problems arising from Covid. Even if funding were available, the services would still be unable to deter an aggressor, he said.

There is also need to rethink the “relevance” of big ticket programs, such as an aircraft carrier, medium-altitude, long-endurance drone, and future combat air system, he said. Space systems and hypersonic weapons were today’s equivalent of the tanks and aircraft which transformed combat in the 1930s. There should be a policy review on whether France had the right platform for nuclear weapons, with the parliamentarian saying there was no doubt France should hold on to the nuclear warhead.

Parliamentarians recently put the defense ministry on the back foot, pointing up a perceived lack of ammunition stock, with the forces running out within a couple of weeks in high intensity warfare. The ministry spokesman sought to calm fears, pointing up an extra €110 million for building 100 mm, 120 mm and 76 mm shells, with attention to improving production of heavy caliber shells due to problems in the export market.

Meanwhile, the French navy has put to sea three of its four-strong fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, regional daily Le Télégramme reported. Usually, just the one nuclear missile boat would be at sea. In response to the war in Ukraine, France has deployed the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the eastern Mediterranean, dispatched troops to Nato ally Romania, and sent Rafale fighter jets at fellow Nato ally Estonia, with defense minister Florence Parly visiting April 3 French air force personnel posted to the Amari air base in Estonia.

Macron has pledged to increase French military spending to two percent of gross domestic product by 2025, a target for Nato members.

Defense is second in national expenditure after the education budget.

German Budget Boost

A German commitment of hitting the two percent target of GDP will lead to €70 billion of annual arms spending, Cornut-Gentille said, bringing a “new context” for European leadership, as Berlin overtakes the Paris pledge of €50 billion.

Berlin spends some 1.3 percent of GDP on the services, which say they are poorly equipped.

Germany’s spending €100 billion on military modernization is part of the commitment to meet — and exceed — the two percent target, think tank Stockholm Peace Research Institute said March 25. That amount compares to €46.9 billion spent last year and will place Germany third in world arms spending, after the U.S. and China, and up from seventh in 2020.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of the hefty budget boost surprised the three parties in the government coalition, but they backed the policy shift, and opinion polls showed 69 percent support, up from 39 percent in 2018.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shocked Germany, and the coalition partners — center-left Social Democrats, market-friendly Free Democrats, and the environmentalist Green party — rallied round Scholz, who dropped a postwar policy of working closely with Russia through Ostpolitik, and maintaining a minimalist military posture.
Tens of thousands of Germans took to the streets in anti-Putin protests, bearing Stop the War banners, and show support for Ukraine.

Putin’s invasion sparked talk of reviving German conscription and a parliamentary visit to Israel to consider ordering Arrow 3, a long-range, anti-missile system, as shield against a Russian attack. Such an arms order would be on top of German plans to buy the F-35 fighter jet to replace the Tornado, to carry U.S.-built atomic bombs for Nato.

Skepticism on the EU Plan

While the war in Ukraine has sharpened an EU search for military capability, such a quest merely repeats the past and lacks credibility where it matters – the commanders, an analyst said. Nato rules the reality game, not the EU.

“What really dooms the operational side of the (Strategic) Compass’s agenda is, of course, the same thing that has crimped the EU’s military aspirations from the beginning – the reluctance of top brass across Europe to take the enterprise seriously,” Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at think tank European Council for Foreign Relations, said March 31 in a research note.

“NATO has always been where ‘serious’ military business is done, where they rub shoulders with (and are told what to do by) the mighty United States,” he said in the note titled, “The EU’s Strategic Compass: Brand new, already obsolete.”

The EU plan lacked credibility as there had been a post-Kosovo plan for a 60,000 intervention force, followed by talk of 1,500-strong battle groups, he said. Neither came to fruition, casting doubt on the EU plan for a 5,000-strong force.

There is a “rejuvenated” Nato, backed by the U.S., but Washington will soon look to the “Europeans to provide their own defense,” with little more than American supply of intelligence and nuclear deterrence, he said. A genuine “member state-owned” drive for defense integration was needed. While there has been discussion, there is little to show for it.

It remained to be seen where that leadership might come from, he said, perhaps a partnership from Scholz and Macron.

More likely, Europeans would wait to see what the U.S. would tell them what to do, while switching focus to the Pacific, he said.

Europe Counts

Another view lies in a larger European role in Nato, and the need for the U.K. to find a place alongside Europe while being outside the E.U.

There is much uncertainty on the future of Nato, and whether the U.S. can be relied upon to back the alliance, a March 29 op ed in London daily The Times said. There is the prospect of Trump’s return to power, the right oscillating between “sneaking admiration” for Putin and Hungarian leader Viktor Orban and insisting America should not be pushed around, the op ed said. Meanwhile, the left is uncertain on militarily supporting liberal democracy, and hesitant on close ties to a European past steeped in “white imperialism.”

“What all this means is that Europe cannot rely on the leadership and support of the U.S. in future as it has done in the past. That leadership and support might be forthcoming. But it also might not,” the op ed said.

There is a call for Europeans to stand up for Europe. “It is perfectly obvious now that we face security challenges in Europe that we must tackle as Europeans,” the op ed said. But it was difficult “to forge a European defense identity” and for the U.K. to find its place after having left the E.U.

There is a call for London to work through Nato “to build common European defence aims” that the U.K. previously rejected, as that was seen as reducing Britain’s independence. “If we do not engage, then these policies will be decided without us.”

The Serpentine Air Race: 100 Years on and Still in the Race

By Flight Lieutenant Marina Power

24 March 2022

Flying at more than 170km/h, wind flowing through their open cockpits, wings held together by wood and wire, these men and women were daredevils, one might say, or simply courageous. But however you describe them, they all had a love of adventure.

On March 20, in a place called Serpentine, off the Loddon Valley Highway in regional Victoria, die-hard aviation enthusiasts recreated a race 100 years in the making: the Serpentine Air Race.

The race this year was held from exactly the same spot and the pilots flew similar bi-wing aircraft as they did in 1920 – this time using the famed, all-time favourite, Tiger Moth with its double wings and open cockpit.

Air Force’s contender in the Serpentine race, the No. 100 Squadron DH.82A Tiger Moth A17-692, which was formerly used as a trainer for the World War II Empire Air Training Scheme at Naromine and Temora, NSW, was flown by Flight Lieutenant Brett Alderton and co-piloted by Flight Lieutenant Chris Tulk.

“It was an absolute delight to fly and participate in the race, even though we didn’t come first. Like everybody who flies them [Tiger Moth], you can’t help but fall in love with these heritage aircraft,” Flight Lieutenant Alderton said.

“When thinking about everyone who may have flown in this aircraft, everyone who sat in those seats before we got to do so, before we had the privilege to fly it, just gets me on a nostalgic level.”

Flight Lieutenant Tulk said that he felt much more connected to the aircraft when flying the Tiger Moth.

“It’s much more of a sensory connection with the open cockpit and the flight controls. It’s a different feel altogether. You really have to concentrate on the more basic flying skills – it’s very raw,” Flight Lieutenant Tulk said.

“It gives you a sense of understanding of what flying was like for World War II pilots. They would spend maybe 10 to 15 hours in the Tiger Moth as a trainer aircraft and then go to bigger aircraft like the Boomerang, Spitfire or Beaufort Bomber. It would have been mind-blowing.”

The No. 100 Squadron Tiger Moth registered as VH-AWA is the second oldest flying Tiger Moth in Australia and comes in its original configuration without brakes and with a tail skid as opposed to a tail wheel.

“It’s a completely different aircraft on the ground and hasn’t been modified so it doesn’t have brakes or the more common tail wheel, giving it unique take-off and landing characteristics,” Flight Lieutenant Alderton said.

Commanding Officer of No. 100 Squadron, Wing Commander Philip Beanland, said it took a team effort to participate in these special events.

“I am proud of the technicians and support staff,” Wing Commander Beanland said.

“Our aircraft performed faultlessly, commemorating those who have fallen in service of our country and hopefully inspiring future generations.”

In addition to the Tiger Moth, Air Force’s other participation in the Serpentine Air Show included the Air Force balloon and an aerial display by the Roulettes.

The Serpentine Air Show was also one of the last official activities in the Air Force Centenary program of public events in Victoria, which started on March 31, 2021.

This article was published by the Australian Department of Defence on 24 March 2022.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Look Beyond Washington for New Partners

04/04/2022

By James Durso

The U.S. and its main Persian Gulf partners, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have had a falling out in recent days.

The causes are both immediate and long-term and each party feels the blame lies with those ingrates on the other side.

Recently, the kingdom and the UAE refused to pump more oil to make up for the loss of Russian oil in the market in the wake of the war in Ukraine, and help to reduce the price at the pump in the U.S.

Both countries signaled their support for OPEC+, which counts Russia as a member, and the UAE oil minister explained, “We need their [U.S.] understanding that what we’re doing is to the benefit of the consumers, to the benefit of the United States and to the benefit of the consumers worldwide.”

In addition, the UAE abstained from a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote condemning the Russian attack on Ukraine, reportedly in frustration over U.S. the response to attacks by Houthi rebels on the emirate, though it later voted for a UN General Assembly motion condemning the attack.

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) avoided U.S. president Joe Biden by being a no-show at the G20 meeting in March, and not being on the line during Biden’s recent phone call with Saudi King Salman.

But MBS did manage to pick up the receiver to talk to Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the kingdom invited China’s leader Xi Jinping to visit the kingdom this Spring. (UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) also ghosted Biden when the White House wanted to discuss the oil crisis.) MBS shrugged off Biden’s negative opinion of him with, “Simply, I do not care.”

During his visit to Riyadh, Xi will be sure to advocate that the kingdom should accept Chinese yuan for oil sales in a move to minimize China’s exposure to the U.S. financial sector and increase its financial leverage.

This has been talked about for a long time, but the time may finally be right as thinking about the end of the dollar’s dominance no longer seems far-fetched.

If the Saudis agree and lock in a long-term forward contract, Xi would return to Beijing in triumph before the 20th Party Congress, where he expects to be named to a third term as China’s paramount leader, his position made unassailable with the yuan enshrined as a petro currency, and the position of the US Dollar weakened.

Now, who wouldn’t want that IOU in his pocket?

Both sides should consider practical steps to get the relationship on a better footing, but what should Washington consider if it moves to do so?

First, how you treat your friends is more important than how you treat your enemies.

MBS and MBZ likely absorbed the appropriate lessons when the U.S. quickly dropped longtime U.S. client Hosni Mubarak after two weeks of protests. Washington then supported a UNSC resolution it then used as justification to attack Libya, causing the capture and death of the leader Muammar al-Qaddafi, the destruction of the country, and an unprecedented refugee crisis in Africa and Europe. In 2016, when some guy named Biden worked in the White House, then-president Barack Obama supported efforts to oust Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

More recently, the U.S. limited arms sales to Saudi Arabia to “defensive” weapons only, in an attempt to curb the kingdom’s fight against the Iranian-sponsored Houthi militia. Then the Biden administration reversed the Trump administration designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, which may have encouraged the movement to increase attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The U.S. sale of the F-35 fighter to the UAE has been delayed over U.S. concerns about the surveillance ability of China’s 5G wireless network located near UAE airfields, and the U.S. desire for operational restrictions, which the emirate understands to mean it can use the aircraft to support U.S. foreign policy, but not its independent moves.

Recently, the UAE, after a U.S. demand, terminated a Chinese-funded $1 billion project in the Khalifa Port Free Trade Zone the U.S. said had military applications. U.S. President Joe Biden spoke about the project to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed who said he heard Biden “loud and clear,” though the emirate later declared, “our position remains the same, that the facilities were not military facilities.”

This must seem like Groundhog Day for the UAE.

In 2006, Dubai-owned DP World was forced to back out of an approved purchase of port management contracts at six major U.S. seaports after the U.S. Congress opposed the deal. Sixteen years later the UAE is learning it can’t even conclude a seaport project at home without a U.S. intervention.

As a result of the U.S. arm twisting, the UAE may have to make an offsetting accommodation to China, its top trade partner, that the U.S. will like even less, a prime example of “it seemed like a good idea at the time.”

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have no doubt noted that Israel, America’s top ally in the region, also came in for its share of abuse by Washington, so at least there’s misery in company.

In January, as the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s border continued, the U.S. withdrew its support for the EastMed natural gas pipeline from Israel to Greece. In 2020, Washington pushed Israel to stop Chinese investments in large infrastructure projects, most recently the new Haifa Port, the largest container port in Israel.

And the U.S. administration appears heedless of Iran’s declaration that Israel is “doomed to disappear.”  Or maybe it just doesn’t care.

Most distressing for the U.S. friends in the Gulf, is Washington’s mad dash to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was originally negotiated without any role for Iran’s neighbors, who will be most immediately threated by an unconstrained Tehran. The JCPOA negotiating team did include far-away Germany, likely as a sop to Europe, though, ironically, Germany was a source of much of the nuclear technology on Iran’s clandestine shopping list.

And recently, the crown princes (and the world) witnessed America’s livestreamed retreat in Afghanistan, as it blithely abandoned two decades of effort, $2 trillion dollars, and several thousand of its Afghan helpers and U.S. citizens to the mercies of the Taliban.

That was likely a clarifying moment for the princes who now knew that all that shona ba shona (“shoulder to shoulder”) stuff in Kabul was just talk, and they would be wise to diversify their portfolios.

Next, insult diplomacy doesn’t work.

Joe Biden famously called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” with “very little social [sic] redeeming value” for the killing of activist Jamal Khashoggi, and which should make for some awkward moments if Biden ever has to visit the kingdom.

Now, MBS no doubt commissioned Khashoggi’s killing, but he’s famously thin-skinned and is on the cusp of a multi-decade run as the leader of Saudi Arabia.

And the U.S. has no ability to influence succession planning in the kingdom, which was plain when Washington’s favorite, then-crown prince Muhammad bin Nayef, was ousted.

(Pro tip: a political figure who’s the public favorite of foreign security services doesn’t stand a chance.)

Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, got much better results as he wasn’t averse to transactional diplomacy and he understood that do deal with a crown prince, he had to send his own crown prince, Jared Kushner, someone with walk-in privileges at the Oval Office.

He managed to get the UAE to sign on to the Abraham Accords, which probably required Saudi assent. Trump also appealed to the Saudis to reverse a planned oil export increase – which they did, even though it aided the U.S. oil and gas industry.

President Ronald Reagan likewise got the Saudis to act in America’s interest when he urged them to help defeat the Communists by depressing the price of oil, slashing the Soviet Union’s revenues and accelerating the collapse of the USSR. Both presidents understood that dealing with the royals required a personal touch or the opportunity to be the preferred partner in an epochal undertaking, i.e., destroying Godless Communism.

Today, MBS knows he can outlast the outbursts from the older man whose health challenges are increasingly obvious, though Biden’s deteriorating health poses some risk to the kingdom.

America’s manic pursuit of a new nuclear deal with Iran will leave Saudi Arabia and the UAE exposed to Iran’s export of revolution in pursuit of regional hegemony.

Bolstered by access to embargoed overseas cash, and the de-listing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, Iran’s moves will cause these friends to hedge by increasing trade and cooperation with China, Russia, and India, and not cooperating with U.S. policies when they have no stake in the outcome, i.e., Russia vs Ukraine.

Biden’s policy is seen as a continuation of Obama’s intent that Saudi Arabia needs to “share” the region with Iran, an Iran that has declared, “there will be no trace of Al Saud in Saudi Arabia by 2030.”

In late 2021, news reports indicated Saudi Arabia is building, with China’s help, solid-fuel ballistic missiles. Though the effort pre-dates the Biden administration, the state of the kingdom’s relations with the U.S. may encourage Riyadh to consider development of non-conventional warheads.

Not surprisingly, Saudi observers see the U.S. pursuit of Iran as the end of the relationship.

Mohammed al-Yahya, the former al-Arabiya editor-in-chief, declared, “When Barack Obama negotiated the nuclear deal with Iran, we Saudis understood him to be seeking the breakup of a 70-year marriage…Why should America’s regional allies help Washington contain Russia in Europe when Washington is strengthening Russia and Iran in the Middle East?”

And while the Saudis fret, Dubai is welcoming Russians (and their flight cash) and may have soon have to grapple with the “problems” of an overheated luxury property market and a shortage of Russian-speaking salesmen at luxury car dealerships.

Diversifying the portfolio is more than ignoring U.S. requests to pump more oil, pricing oil in yuan, and welcoming Russians.

It’s also about exercising autonomy by, say, hosting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in the UAE, much to Washington’s ire, which will also give Moscow a foreign policy win in its support for Damascus, a diplomatic partner of Moscow since 1944 (Moscow was the first foreign capital to establish diplomatic relations with Riyadh – in 1926 – though the relationship included a 54-year break.) The Emirati view: “Our new approach emphasizes diplomacy, de-escalation and engagement … and we put our own interests first.”

But can we still be friends?

As it looks to the multi-polar future, Washington should consider that its securitization of the relationships in the Gulf has created the expectation in the Gulf countries, who have relied on the U.S. for 45% of their arms imports in recent years, that all that cash was buying a security guarantee.

The U.S., which was too busy counting the money, may not have understood the expectation it created so, when it turned its back on Afghanistan, made concession after concession to woo Tehran, and demanded the Gulf states fall in line with its anti-Russia policy, the loss of confidence was serious and Russia, China, and India may be more reliable partners for the long haul.

James Durso (@james_durso) is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters. Mr. Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.

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