The Coronavirus Crisis and Its Impact: Update Report

04/10/2020

We have just published our follow up report on the coronavirus crisis and its impact.

The report contains our most recent articles on the crisis and its impact, including a look back at the London plague in the 17th century.

We provide a range of conceptual looks at the crisis and how it is playing out in geopolitics, as well as initial tasks to consider going forward.

For a PDF version of the report, see the following:

Coronovirus Update April 10 2020

For an e-book version of the report, see below:

And for the e-book version of the earlier report, see below:

Operation Irini: Or Operation Cassandra?

by defenceWeb

The European Union is stepping up its efforts to enforce the UN arms embargo on Libya through the launch of a new CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) military operation in the Mediterranean.

The European Union (EU) Council on 31 March adopted a decision launching Operation EU Navfor Med Irini.

“Diplomacy cannot succeed unless it is backed by action. This operation will be essential and a clear contribution to promoting peace in our immediate neighbourhood through a permanent ceasefire,” said Josep Borrell, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and President of the Council.

Irini, (Greek for peace), will have as its core task the implementation of the UN arms embargo through the use of aerial, satellite and maritime assets. In particular the mission will be able to carry out inspections of vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya suspected to be carrying arms or related material to and from Libya in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2292 (2016).

As secondary tasks, EU Navfor Med Irini will also monitor and gather information on illicit exports from Libya of petroleum, crude oil and refined petroleum products;
contribute to the capacity building and training of the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy in law enforcement tasks at sea;
and contribute to the disruption of the business model of human smuggling and trafficking networks through information gathering and patrolling by aircraft.

Irini will be led by Rear Admiral Fabio Agostini as EU Operation Commander, and its headquarters will be located in Rome, Italy.

The mandate of Operation Irini will initially last until 31 March 2021.

In parallel with the launch of Operation Irini, the existing EU Navfor Med operation in the Mediterranean, Sophia, will permanently cease its activities, the EU said. Sophia was launched on 22 June 2015 as part of the EU’s approach to migration, and was to cease permanently on 31 March.

A number of countries have violated the arms embargo on Libya and in January, the United Nations said numerous cargo and other flights have been observed landing at Libyan airports in the western and eastern parts of the country providing the parties with advanced weapons, armoured vehicles, advisers and fighters.

“The mission condemns these ongoing violations, which risk plunging the country into a renewed and intensified round of fighting,” the U.N mission to Libya (UNSMIL) said in a statement.

The United Arab Emirates and Egypt support eastern forces of Khalifa Haftar which have been trying to take Tripoli. The internationally recognized administration based in Tripoli trying to fend off Haftar’s forces is backed by Turkey.

UN experts accuse Jordan and the United Arab Emirates of supplying military material to Haftar’s forces, which they said then prompted Libya’s Government of National Accord to ask Turkey for help. Haftar is also backed by Egypt and more recently Russian mercenaries, according to diplomats and Tripoli officials.

This article was published on April 1, 2020 by defenceWeb.

And in an op ed by Tarke Megerisi published by the EUObserver on April 7, 2020, the author characterized this as the EU’s Operation Cassandra. 

With a typically forceful announcement by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on 31 March, the EU marked the launch of its new naval mission to Libya. 

Codenamed Operation Irini, the Greek word for peace, it probably should have been called Cassandra after the mythical Trojan girl gifted with foresight while cursed to forever be ignored. 

As with Cassandra, the operation has clearly ignored Libya’s reality and all expert advice. 

The same myopia which has led to such a fundamentally-flawed mission will now mean the potential gains it could provide will almost certainly go uncultivated.

This mission, touted by Borrell as a solution – with a small s – to Libya’s ever-devolving crisis, was ostensibly designed to enforce the UN Security Council Arms embargo in place since 2011. 

An embargo once described by acting UN special representative Stephanie Williams as ‘a joke’ due to the extent that it has been violated. 

Enforcing the arms embargo and preventing the regional actors driving Libya’s war from continuing to do so through arms and mercenary deliveries is a prerequisite to any kind of peace or return to a political process.

In principal, this sounds good. In truth however, the mission statement is about as far as this naval operation gets at resolving this issue as the vast majority of weapon deliveries to Libya do not come via the sea. 

They are either flown in at the behest of the United Arab Emirates or driven over the land border with Egypt. 

In fact, the only foreign actor that usually ships arms to Libya is Turkey, and these are to support those defending Libya’s capital as part of a security pact with the Libyan government. 

The fact that Turkey not Libya seems to be this operation’s focal point highlights the real driver of operation peace, at the expense of Libyans that are currently suffering through devastating escalations in the violence as those air freighted weapons bombard Tripoli and its over two million inhabitants on a daily basis.

Borrell may have been at pains to remark how Libya is a priority for him and the geopolitical commission he is representing. 

Low priority

However, this operation has instead become a glaring example of just how low a priority Libya is for Europe despite the huge threat Libya’s conflict poses. 

And, unfortunately for Borrell, he can only act where member state interests lie. In this case, the only passion the EU’s foreign affairs committee could muster during its meetings on Libya were familiar pantomimes of Greek ire towards Turkey and Austrian-Hungarian obsessions with migration.

Greece’s attention turned towards the Libyan conflict after Turkey teasingly leveraged its relationshipwith the Libyan government to lay a dubious claim to the eastern Mediterranean gasfields that Greece sees as a golden ticket out of economic hardship. 

It found a quiet ally in France, who is not only similarly disenfranchised by this quarrel in the east Mediterranean, but has also long sought for a wider European mission to facilitate its apparent goal in Libya – seeing the renegade general Khalifa Haftar conquer Tripoli and set up a governing administration. 

In this clumsy great game taking place on the shores of Tripoli, Europe’s latest move seems likely to marginalise it and damage its credibility as an honest broker. 

It will also further cripple the painstaking diplomatic efforts of Germany over the last six months. 

To those in Tripoli it will be hard to avoid the impression that Europe has taken the side of Haftar and is seeking to penalise Turkey for supporting them. 

It is especially grating for them given their repeated requests to Europe and the US for support or diplomatic intervention to stop the war before formalising their relationship with Turkey. 

In exchange for this, Europe will most likely not even stop Turkey’s military support. Instead it will push Turkey away, towards a closer partnership with Russia going forwards. 

These eventualities would only further undermine the Berlin process, costing Europe a chance to lead a multilateral front for a solution. 

Given the Berlin conference was held in a rush last January to maintain European relevance in the face of the ceasefire announced by Putin and Erdogan, this is an increasingly incoherent and self-defeating move from Brussels. 

Despite the misplaced objectives behind the operation, there is still the chance for a positive impact for Libya. Europe must acknowledge that it cannot fully enforce the arms embargo, but what it can do is use its satellites and other assets to track every violation regardless of the transgressor. 

They can then publicise this, show evidence of violations to the media, and crucially to the UN sanctions committee. This would provide some much-needed accountability to the free-for-all that is Libya’s war. 

It could even be backed up by lawsuits from member-states or EU-level sanctions against repeat offenders, or other targets like the arms smugglers and freight companies used to violate the arms embargo.

Sadly these steps – as well as wider European support for Germany’s diplomatic engagement in Libya – are unlikely to be taken for the very same reason that the operation took the shape it did. 

Europe as a whole must overcome its general foreign policy apathy. It must directly engage the new and very real threats it is facing otherwise we will have a lot less peace, and a lot more warnings falling on deaf ears.

 

 

USS Ford Qualifications in Atlantic Ocean

These photos various aspects of workers supporting flight operations on the USS Ford and working the quals for the Ford.

VMX-1 Works MAGTF Integration at Yuma MCAS

Aircraft with Marine Operational Test and Evaluation Squadron 1 (VMX-1) return from a training exercise in Yuma, Ariz., Dec. 20, 2019.

This training exercise was conducted to give the pilots and air crew of VMX-1 experince and flight hours.

(U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Andres Hernandez)

The Coronavirus Crisis: The Charles de Gaulle Aircraft Carrier Returns to Port

04/09/2020

By Pierre Tran

Paris – Some 40 sailors on board the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier show signs resembling  the coronavirus infection, prompting an early return of the capital ship to Toulon naval base, the armed forces ministry said April 8.

“On board the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier presently deployed in the Atlantic in the Foch mission, around 40 sailors are today under close medical observation,” the ministry said in a statement.

“They show symptoms compatible with a possible infection by Covid-19. These first symptoms recently appeared,” the ministry said. The aircraft carrier had been to arrive April 23 at the naval base in southern France.

The carrier is the nuclear-powered flagship of a task force capable of projecting force around the world.

In the US, acting navy secretary Thomas Modly resigned on Tuesday, following controversy over his criticism of the commander of the Theodore Roosevelt carrier. The former commander, captain Brett Crozier, had sought closer attention for his crew, some of whom were ill with the virus.

“It is not just missiles that can take us down, words can do it too, if we aren’t careful with how and when we use them,” said Modly, Reuters reported.

“It’s my fault. I own it.”

In France, a team was being sent today to the Charles de Gaulle carrier to test the suspected cases and limit the spread of the virus on board, the ministry said. The patients were in isolation confinement and under increased medical supervision. Steps have been taken to protect the rest of the crew.

There is a medical team of some 20 on board the carrier, equipped with facilities including a confinement unit of some 100 beds, ventilators, and scanner. Helicopters could fly patients to a higher level hospital in case the complaint worsened, the ministry said.

Steps had been taken to to protect the crew, seeking to allow the carrier’s operations to continue. Sailors clean the common work areas twice a day, disinfect rails, door handles and taps. Workstations, telephones and shared computers are also disinfected after use.

Crews are reminded on a daily basis of the need for care and preventive measures. The number of meetings has been cut down and gathering in the mess has been limited.

Face masks have been distributed on a preventive basis to crew members showing possible symptoms, such as coughs. These sailors are checked twice a day by medical staff.

The warship sailed out January 21 on the three month Foch mission, which included support for operations in Iraq and Syria. The capital ship was already on its way back to Toulon.

In France, armed forces minister Florence Parly signalled the need for the military and industry to deliver maintenance service to the forces, while observing strict measures in the coronavirus crisis.

Parly visited April 6 the head office of Nexter, a land systems company, and the SIMMT joint maintenance unit for ground weapons, the ministry said. Those visits followed a March 31 visit to the headquarters of Naval Group, a builder of warships and submarines.

“In the Covid-19 crisis, the armed forces minister kept up visits to these organizations to highlight the absolute necessity to maintain industrial activity, both state-backed and private sector, as it is indispensable to allow our armed forces conduct their most essential missions and activities,” the ministry said.

“Overseas and domestic deployments, nuclear deterrent, defense of national airspace and maritime approaches are at the heart of national sovereignty, and the armed forces ministry and industry must not miss the mark,” the ministry said.

In addition to equipment service, Parly also expressed her “gratitude” to work on programs for new equipment.

Arquus, builder of light and medium vehicles, said April 6 work was gradually restarting in four factories, including production for the Griffon multi-role troop carrier in the army’s Scorpion modernization program.

MBDA, a missile maker, gradually reopened April 6 its three French sites, a company spokesman said.  Some 300 research and development staff went  back to work at the Plessiy Robinson head office, just outside the capital, some 50 production workers and R&D staff at Bourges, and 40 workers at Selles-Saint Denis, central France, he said. A further 100 administrative staff were now working in offices of the three sites, while the rest of the workforce was working from home. 

For the French arms manufacturers, there will be talks with clients on the contracts, with attention to the force majeure clause covering events which release the supplier from penalties, an industrial source said.

On the Foch naval mission, France sought to show its military presence in regions seen to be strategically important, namely the North Sea, eastern Mediterranean, and the European side of the Atlantic.

The Charles de Gaulle carried 18 Rafale fighter jets, two Hawkeye spy aircraft, one Caïman anti-submarine and anti-surface helicopter, and two Dauphin Pedro search and recovery helicopters. There was a crew of 1,200, and an 80-strong command of the task force 473.

The carrier sailed out of Toulon January 21, escorted by the Auvergne multi-mission frigate, Chevalier Paul air defense frigate, Var fleet auxiliary ship,  and a nuclear-powered attack submarine.

The task force sailed at various times with warships from Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain in a bid to boost interoperability.

 

Draken Works the Red Team: Mirage F-1s as Part of the Arsenal

By Guy Martin

Draken International has begun flying supersonic, radar equipped Mirage F1M fighters to support US Air Force (USAF) combat training at Nellis Air Force Base after the aircraft were returned to service by Paramount Aerospace Systems.

The fully modernized Mirage F1Ms, predominately flown by the Spanish Air Force in the past, now challenge US and coalition 4th and 5th generation fighters over the skies of the Nevada Test and Training Range in the development of warfighter’s tactics, techniques, and procedures, Draken International said on 26 March.

“Over the past two years, the collaborative efforts between Draken International and Paramount Aerospace Systems has resulted in the reassembly, restoration, and certification of the fleet of Mirage F1s. This extensive project was accomplished at Draken’s maintenance facility in Lakeland, Florida. Draken has also begun the acceptance of the fleet of Denel Cheetahs from the South African Air Force, a 4th Generation supersonic radar-equipped fighter that joins Draken’s operational fleet,” the company said.

Sean Gustafson, VP of Business Development at Draken stated, “Draken is fully committed to enhancing adversary support for the USAF. These fleets of supersonic assets highlight the dedication to fulfilling combat readiness training objectives at Nellis and Air Force bases across the US. Our ever-growing fleet of advanced fighters enrich our capabilities and challenge Airmen, Sailors, and Marines alike.”

Draken flew its first refurbish F1M on 12 November 2019 from Lakeland Linder International Airport. Paramount Aerospace Systems and Draken signed a contract in 2018 for the overhaul and ongoing engineering support of its fleet of 22 ex-Spanish Mirage F1s.

Paramount Aerospace says it specializes in the modernization of fixed wing platforms including leading the previous modernization of the Mirage F1M while still in Spanish Air Force service. Through predecessor company Advanced Technologies and Engineering (ATE), Paramount was involved in modernising Spain’s F1CE/EE/EDA fleet to F1M standard.

The modernisation of the Spanish F1s covered a service life extension programme (SLEP) and avionics upgrade for 48 F1CE/EE (C.14A/B) single-seaters and four F1EDA (C.14C) two-seat trainers. Thomson-CSF RCM was awarded the FFr700 million contract in 1996. Spanish companies Amper Programas, Indra and CASA acted as sub-contractors while ATE was responsible for the design and integration of the navigation, display and weapons systems. The last upgraded fighter was handed over to the Spanish air Force in 2001.

Apart from the SLEP, the upgrade package includes a revised cockpit with colour liquid crystal displays and a Smart HUD; a Sextant inertial navigation system with GPS interface; air-to-ground radar rangefinding capability; NATO-compatible Have Quick 2 secure communications; Mode 4 digital IFF; a defensive aids suite; and flight recorders.

Draken also acquired nine ex-South African Air Force Cheetah C and three Cheetah D fighters from Denel in 2018. These will join its more than 100 tactical fighter aircraft, including the A-4 Skyhawk and L-159 Honey Badger.

This article was published on March 31, 2020 by defenceWeb.

 

 

 

USS Detroit Deploys to U.S. Southern Command

During the deployment to the U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility, Detroit, with embarked helicopter and USCG law enforcement detachment, will support Joint Interagency Task Force South’s mission, which includes counter-illicit drug trafficking in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.

 

Back to the Sea: The Contribution of the USMC H-1 Family

04/08/2020

By Robbin Laird

A decade ago I went to a series of Bold Alligator exercises.

These exercises were generated to reshape a return to the sea for the US Navy and USMC team after a long period of focus on the land wars. A whole generation of Marines had seldom operated from a sea base.

Those exercises put in motion the learning curve of how to operate from the sea, but it was happening under the influence of an evolving strategic environment, which included the push by China into maritime operations and the Russians rebuilding their air force and navy. In addition, several littoral nations were building out their maritime security and presence forces.

The sea was becoming more crowded, and the level of lethality operating at sea was rising,

This evolving environment, plus learning the skills to operate a 21st century Navy-Marine Corps team started with the Bold Alligator Exercises but has accelerated as both the Marines and the Navy have focused in the past five years on enhancing their capabilities for distributed integrated operations.

In the course of this evolution, the ARG-MEU is morphing into the amphibious task force and along with that process, the capabilities onboard the amphibious fleet have been enhanced, with the maturing of the Osprey, the coming of the F-35B and C to the fleet with their ability to work with USAF and allied deployed F-35s in shaping a wider SA and C2 web, and leveraging the capabilities of the evolution of a core capability used by the Marines heavily in the land wars, the H-1 capability.

Not as newsworthy or flashy as Ospreys or F-35s, the H-1 “family” of attack and lift helicopters has emerged from legacy systems to provide a very flexible package of multi-mission capability in support of the MAGTF.  The AH-1Z Viper and the UH-1Y Venom are the replacements for the legacy H-1 platforms.

But they provide significant improvements over the legacy platforms. And part of that improvement is redesign which provides 85% commonality between the two platforms, which obviously then leads to significantly reduced support requirements and support costs.

Recently, I had the chance to talk with Major Thomas Duff and Mr. Michael Manifor, HQMC Aviation, APW-53, Attack and Utility Helicopter Coordinators, about the capability and its operational use in the land wars, and its significant role in operating from seabases going forward as well.

According to the APW-53 leaders, “The H-1s provide the vital link for fires and assault support integration between ground/surface forces and aviation forces.  They are a trusted asset to the ground/maritime force commander.” The H-1 package consists of an Offensive Air Support (OAS) platform, the Viper. This aircraft provides lethal fire support to the ground/surface commander for the embarked Marines but also plays a key role with regard to maritime operations which are discussed later in the article. The Venom is a very flexible utility platform, which provides flexibility for the maritime and joint forces. It provides maneuver, logistics and fire support for the MAGTF.

The two aircraft share significant key elements of commonality which enhances supportability of the H-1, whether on land at FOBs, or at sea. 85% of maintenance significant components are identical. According to the APW-53 leaders, “H-1s operate faster than most sea-based connectors, require significantly less fuel, and possess a smaller footprint than any other manned aviation platform.

“They are highly mobile, rapidly deployable, and certified for air capable ships to include LHD, LPD, LSD, LCS, cargo (T-AK/AKE/AKR), and CRUDES (Cruiser-Destroyer).”

They identified a number of key capabilities which the two platforms share.

They underscored that “both Viper and Venom have a redundant structure: twin T700 engines, Dual hydraulics and Dual Tandem Actuators; the two helicopters have ballistic tolerance and fuel system protection; they both have an ergonomic cockpit with redundant screens and Hands-On-Collective-And-Stick (HOCAS), thereby reducing cockpit workload and time for target hand-off; both have Increased Situational Awareness and reduced workload through the Optimized Top Owl (OTO) Helmet and Helmet Mounted Sight Display (HMSD) and that this last system provides seamless target handoffs between pilots and sensors.”

Given the different roles of the two aircraft, there are capabilities which are unique to each as well. The Viper has an effective Target Sight System which provides increased standoff for enemy engagement and survivability as well as carries both air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons. The Venom flies with a Brite Star Targeting System which provides increased standoff for enemy engagement and survivability as well as air-to-ground weapons.

With regard to the Viper, the helicopter has been built from the ground up as a maritime attack helicopter. But because it is fully integrated into MAGTF operations, and operates throughout those operations, it plays a multi-mission role with the deployed Marines. In fact, given the operational envelope within which the helicopter has operated and contributes, this broadens my understanding of what a multi-mission capable attack helicopter can do for the combat force.

As it was put to me, the Viper is involved in the entire span of assault operations. Prior to an assault, they prep the battlespace, including doing armed reconnaissance. They support fixed wing aircraft in a deep air support role, and when the Ospreys and CH-53s advance to the objective area, they provide an air escort role.  With Marines in the objective area, they provide direct ground support for ground movement working directly with the Ground Combat Element.

USMC AH1-Z Mission Sets. Credit Graphic: Second Line of Defense

The aircraft has onboard systems which allow it to play this variety of roles, including a fully integrated cockpit and fire control system. Both aircraft have modern EW and sensor systems which allow it to operate in the complex battlespace and to provide for enhanced ground combat support.The experience in the land wars has in a way obscured that the two helos have been designed from the ground up to be central players in the return to the sea and the evolution of distributed integrated operations. Physically, the aircraft are fully marinized. The systems onboard are also marinized which means that the aircraft are fully integratable with the ships on which they operate, and can move across the shipboard chess board in the distributed engagement space as well.

Because their electronic systems are marinized, they can fit into the flow of ship operations, rather than having to be treated as special cases landing onboard a ship to be transported to an area of interest. They are integratable assets within a ship ops tempo.

With their various physical design assets for at sea operations, they fit right into a major issue for shipboard operation, which is maximum use of deck space which is what deck spotting is all about. The main rotor blades of the two aircraft can be folded which allows for maximum use of deck space and again management of the aircraft within a ships’ operational tempo and work flow.

In fact, the two aircraft have been designed from the ground up to operate at sea. The APW-53 leaders highlighted that the aircraft are built through a wet lay-up manufacturing process which provides inherent protection from airframe corrosion, flies with corrosion resistant composite rotor blades and hubs, operates with aluminum gearbox cases and the helos have waterproof seals throughout.

We discussed as well how the Viper contributes to at sea operations as well as being able to support embarked Marines.  With its reconnaissance capabilities, the aircraft can support security and sea control missions, something which today’s members of an amphibious task force can clearly do in addition to projecting power ashore.

As the APW-53 team noted: “With its air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions, the Viper can provide valuable offensive and defensive capability for the Amphibious Task Force against both enemy ships and aircraft.  The Venom can be used the primary means of moving personnel and smaller equipment from ship-to-shore or ship-to-ship for Expeditionary Advanced Based Operations (EABO) and provide close fires in support of ground forces and connectors.”

The APW-53 team added that “capacity exists for future modifications that maximize lethality and survivability and facilitate teamed engagement options versus near-peer weapons systems (anti-ship, long range precision strike, and air-to-air).  Future H-1 system upgrades are a stepping stone to ensure proven modern systems are integrated onto the Future Vertical Lift platform.”

With regard to targeting, this means that the Viper will be able to provide targeting data for another platform or provide a targeting solution identified by another source as well.

Put in other terms, what has been learned in the land wars is that the H-1 family can provide a wide range of support to the deployed Marine. What we also are seeing is that the wide range of support capability coming home to the seabase, a subject we will consider in the next article.