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Egypt is considering purchasing two Meko A200 frigates from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as discussions with France’s Naval Group on the acquisition of further Gowind corvettes grinds to a halt over cost concerns.
France’s La Tribune late last month reported that the German deal would be worth around 1 billion euros.
TKMS urgently needs additional sales after losing out on the German KS-180 vessel programme, which is worth some 3.5 billion euros.
La Tribune reports that the German government is offering attractive credit through financial company Euler Hermes, whereas the Naval Group is struggling with its credit offers.
Egypt will presumably opt for the Aster 30 missile manufactured by MBDA, but apparently France will only sell this if it is used on Italian or French vessels, so Egypt would then be forced to make user of an alternative like the Umkhonto, as Algeria did.
In 2014 Egypt ordered four Gowind 2500 corvettes for around 1 billion euros, with one, El Fateh (971) built in Lorient and the other three being built in Egypt. El Fateh was delivered to Egypt in October 2017. The contract made provision for an option for two more.
First published by defenceWeb, Monday on 13 August 2018 and republished with their permission.
France is looking for a way around the United States’ blocking of Scalp cruise missile technology for Egypt, and is exploring the possibility of replacing American components with alternatives so it can deliver the missiles as well as additional Rafale fighters to Egypt.
French Defence Minister Florence Parly recently said in the country’s National Assembly that the decision by the United States to use the International Trade in Arms Regulation (ITAR) agreement to block the sale of Scalp missiles to Egypt could be circumvented if domestically-built parts are used instead.
“In this case, we will not be able to lift the US opposition to the sale of Scalp missiles.
“The only thing we can do is for MBDA [which makes the missiles] to make some investment in research and development to be able to manufacture similar components that are not covered by ITAR,” Parly said last month.
“We can do it for the Egyptian Scalp/Rafale in so far as the new missile can be built with a reasonable delay, though the customer might find this delay a bit too long.”
“It is true that we depend on this [US International Traffic in Arms Regulations] mechanism: We are at the mercy of the Americans when our equipment is concerned,” she said. Because the United States will not lift its opposition to the sale of Scalp missiles, France has had to come up with alternatives.
Egypt has ordered 24 Rafale jets from France, and is looking to acquire 12 more, but only if it can buy Scalp missiles for them.
It appears earlier reports that the impasse with the United States had been resolved, were premature.
La Tribune reported that French President Emmanual Macron broached the Scalp issue during his visit to the United States in April.
The newspaper in July reported that licenses had been granted to export components used in the missiles to Egypt while France is also in the process of finding alternative components for the missile that are ITAR-free.
In February it emerged that a plan to acquire 12 Rafales stalled after the United States refused to sell the manufacturer key components of the SCALP missile.
The planned Egyptian acquisition of 12 Rafale fighter aircraft has been in the making since November 2017. It was billed to be a follow-up sale to a February 2015 agreement for an Egyptian acquisition of 24 Rafale fighter jets.
The new Egyptian defence minister Mohamed Ahmed Zaki Mohamed visited France in July, with Egypt expressing interest in acquiring 30 Patroller unmanned aerial vehicles and Cougar helicopters for the navy. Egypt was also interested in acquiring two additional Gowind corvettes but apparently negotiations are stalled over pricing and is now looking at German warships.
Forecast International notes that the deepening Egyptian-French relationship comes as the volume of U.S. sales to Egypt has waned after the US put a temporary hold on military sales and assistance to Egypt.
Since President Sisi took office, Egypt has turned to Russia and France for the big force modernization contracts. From Russia, Egypt purchased dozens of MiG-29M/M2 fighter jets and Ka-52 attack helicopters.
The Egyptian military introduced Antey-2500 surface-to-air missile systems into service and is to procure T-90S/SK main battle tanks.
France has sold Mistral helicopter carriers (initially destined for Russia) to Egypt, along with a FREMM frigate, several Gowind 2500 corvettes, and Rafale fighter jets. Further contracts with both countries are planned.
The global market for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, is anticipated to reach $25 billion by the end of 2023, witnessing a compound annual growth rate of 18.2% over the forecast period owing to the significant use of drones in various sectors.
This is according to a new report published by Research Nester on 6 August.
It said that the military drones segment is anticipated to garner largest market share in terms of revenue over the forecast period which can be attributed to their widespread functions in law and enforcement sector combined with military applications by various countries around the globe to safeguard their borders among other applications.
These factors are anticipated to drive the overall drone market by noteworthy revenue by the end of forecast period.
The global market for drones is anticipated to reach $25 billion by the end of 2023 witnessing a compound annual growth rate of 18.2% over the forecast period owing to the significant use of drones in various sectors. In terms of volume, there was sale of nearly 4 million commercial drones in 2015 which is further expected to expand with 18 million a year by the end of 2023.
Factors such as wide range of drone applications in numerous sectors such as weather monitoring, traffic monitoring among others are estimated to drive the demand for drones over the forecast period.
Further, the rise in emerging market of drones is motivating various universities to offer bachelor degree in Unmanned Systems Applications which is anticipated to encourage the growth of drone market over the forecast period.
In the regional segment, North America is anticipated to dominate the overall drone market during the forecast period. This can be attributed to wide scale applications and production of drones in commercial sector.
Further, Europe is anticipated to grow with attractive market share in drone market over the forecast period.
Wide Scale Applications to Grow the Market
The growth of the drone market is driven by its wide scale applications in search & rescue operations, drone-based photography, pest detection in agriculture sector, rescue of mammal species and various monitoring applications such as weather monitoring, pollution monitoring and volcanic monitoring among others.
These applications are believed to benefit the expansion of drone market in upcoming years.
However, stringent government regulations regarding violation of privacy are estimated to hamper the growth of drone market in near future.
Republished with permission of our partner defenceWeb.
First published by defenceWeb, Wednesday, 08 August 2018
During my current trip to Australia, I started with the opportunity to visit the HMAS Hobart, the first Aegis Air Warfare destroyer for the Royal Australian Navy.
This was my second visit to Garden Island, and it is always exciting to see the city of Sydney in the backdrop to a major Australian naval base as the arrival of the First Fleet seems not so distant when you are not far from where they landed in 1788.
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The HMAS Hobart is the first of the three Aegis Air Warfare destroyers to be operational with the Navy and the second ship will be commissioned later this year.
The ship introduces a new level of combat capability into the Royal Australian Navy in which the ship’s reach is significantly greater than any previous ship operational in the Aussie fleet because of its Aegis Combat system.
It is a key building block in shaping an integrated air-sea task force navy in that the capabilities onboard the ship can contribute to an integrated C2, ISR and strike grid in which the evolving capabilities of the ADF can cover a wider area of operation in the waters surrounding Australia or in service of missions further abroad.
As Rear Admiral Mayer noted during an interview I conducted with him while he was Commander of the Australian fleet:
“We are joint by necessity.
“Unlike the US Navy, we do not have our own air force or our own army. Joint is not a theological choice, it’s an operational necessity.”
What clearly this means is that the future of the Hobart class is working ways to operate in an integrated battlespace with land-based RAAF F-35s, Tritons and P-8s among other air assets.
Their future is not protecting the carrier battle group, as the Aussies have no carrier.
Rather, their future is “to provide air defence for accompanying ships in addition to land forces and infrastructure in coastal areas, and for self-protection against missiles and aircraft.”
The skill sets being learned to operate the ship, notably the workflow on board the ship, in terms of the use of data, ISR and C2 systems, working situational awareness throughout the work stations onboard the ship, are foundational for other ships coming to the fleet.
With the coming of the Brisbane, the HMAS Hobart will no longer be a single ship but the lead into a class of ships.
And with the Australian decision with regard to its new frigates which will leverage the Aegis combat system capability as well, the HMAS Hobart has become the lead into a whole new approach to how the Australian fleet will shape its combat networks as well.
This means that the training and support provided to HMAS Hobart is a foundation for a larger effort for the Navy as well.
And with the addition of F-35 as well as P-8s and Tritons as well as the evolution of the KC-30A tanker, the fleet looks to become a core element for an integrated air-maritime task force approach.
Indeed, when visiting HMAS Hobart one can already see crew from the Brisbane onboard getting ready for its initial deployments as well.
The Aegis combat system pioneered by the US Navy and Lockheed Martin has become a global capability as an Aegis Global Enterprise has emerged in which new types of ships have been built carrying variants of the Aegis combat system.
This started with the Japanese becoming the first foreign navy to buy Aegis and then in a critical breakthrough moment, Aegis was sold to the Spanish Navy which built a new type of ship on which to operate Aegis.
I was working for a consulting company supporting the Navy at the time, and was supporting what would become what I coined in the mid-1990s, the Aegis Global Enterprise.
There was opposition both within the US Navy and without to selling Aegis to the Spanish Navy but senior leaders at the time in the Clinton Administration, notably Secretary of Defense Perry, supported the effort.
Working on the issue at the time, I learned a great deal about how a good decision can navigate critics and challenges, and fortunately for the Navy the decision was taken to sell the Aegis combat system to the Spanish.
Much like the F-35 global enterprise, the benefits to allies and the US alike become obvious with the cross-learning and not just from the US to the allies, but among allies as well as from allies to the United States.
The HMAS Hobart is clearly a result of this process.
It is a variant of the Spanish ship and was sold via Spain to Australia.
The senior staff and crew operated on a Spanish frigate last year to get used to the form factor of the ship and could anticipate the workflow as well prior to getting their own ship.
According to an article published last year by the Royal Australian Navy, the time spent onboard the Spanish ship was highlighted.
Captain Stavridis said he and some of his crew members were fortunate to have spent time at sea in their Spanish sister ship, Cristobal Colon (F105), earlier this year.
“The time spent in Cristobal Colon was extremely valuable as it provided a unique opportunity to better understand the platform and to work with a crew that have a detailed working knowledge of the ship,” Captain Stavridis said.
“Cristobal Colon’s crew were extremely generous in their time and ensured that we were given all opportunities to learn as much as we could.”
He said the layout of Cristobal Colon was very similar to the Hobart class.
“In fact the Hobart class was based on the F104 design with modifications taken from the F105.”
(For a look at the Cristobal Colon, see the following:
Of course, the US Navy has been working with HMAS Hobart and indeed the ship will leave soon for San Diego for further collaborative efforts.
And as one US Navy officer put it: “We expect to learn a great deal from you as you shape the operations of the Hobart as it is integrated into the Australian fleet.”
This is the key advantage of a global enterprise approach.
We projected that this would be the case if their was the sale to Spain of Aegis.
Now one can walk onboard the reality, namely, the HMAS Hobart.
Appendix: The Air Warfare Destroyer Alliance
The Hobart class is being built by the Air Warfare Destroyer Alliance.
The AWDs are being built for Australia’s specific defence needs and will provide a significant increase in Australia’s defence capabilities.
The AWDs will provide greater protection for ADF personnel by providing air defence for accompanying ships as well as land forces and infrastructure on nearby coastal areas. The AWDs will also provide self-protection against attacking missiles and aircraft.
The Aegis Weapon System incorporating the state-of-the-art phased array radar, AN/ SPY 1D(V), in combination with the SM-2 missile, will provide an advanced air defence system capable of engaging enemy aircraft and missiles at ranges in excess of 150 kilometres.
The AWDs will also carry a MH-60R Seahawk ‘Romeo’ naval combat helicopter for surveillance and response to support key warfare areas. The surface warfare function will include long range anti-ship missiles and a naval gun capable of firing extended range munitions in support of land forces. The AWDs will also be able to conduct Undersea Warfare and will be equipped with modern sonar systems, decoys and surface-launched torpedoes.
Coupled with an array of close-in defensive weapons, all of these capabilities ensure the AWDs have the layered defensive and offensive resources required to win the battle against 21st century conventional and asymmetric threats.
The Defence team is led by the AWD Program Office in the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO), which retains overall responsibility for the project management and delivery of the three Air Warfare Destroyers. The DMO, through the Minister for Defence, is responsible to the people of Australia to ensure that the future AWDs are delivered to the RAN on time, on budget and to the required capability.
In April 2005 the Australian Government selected Raytheon Australia Pty Ltd as the Combat System – Systems Engineer, and in May 2005 selected ASC AWD Shipbuilder Pty Ltd as the Shipbuilder. ASC and Raytheon Australia join the DMO in forming the AWD Alliance which is now working hard to deliver this cutting edge capability to the Navy.
On 20 June 2007, the Australian Government announced that the Navantia designed F100 had been selected as the basis for Australia’s future Hobart Class AWDs. The F100 ensures tomorrow’s Navy has the best equipment to defend Australia and its national interests.
Australia’s new Air Warfare Destroyers will be named HMAS Hobart, HMAS Brisbane and HMAS Sydney ensuring the three ships reflect a rich history of service.
When the AWDs are delivered to the Royal Australian Navy they will be in service, defending and supporting Australian interests, for more than 30 years. To put this timeframe into perspective, some of the men and women who will serve on the AWDs are not yet born.
The Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyer (AWD) will be one of the world’s most capable multi-purpose warships.
In selecting the Navantia-designed F100 as the baseline platform design and coupling it with the Aegis Weapon System, the Australian Government has ensured tomorrow’s Navy has the best equipment to defend Australia and its national interests.
Since entering service with the Spanish Armada, F100s have worked alongside US forces in the Persian Gulf as the first foreign Aegis equipped ships to be fully integrated into a US Navy Carrier Strike Group and have successfully been deployed as the flagship of NATO’s Maritime Group Standing Reaction Force.
The Hobart Class AWDs, which are under constructionat three shipyards in Newcastle (NSW), Williamstown (Victoria) and Osborne (South Australia) will provide air defence for accompanying ships in addition to land forces and infrastructure in coastal areas, and for self-protection against missiles and aircraft.
They will be capable across the full spectrum of joint maritime operations, from area air defence and escort duties, right through to peacetime national tasking and diplomatic missions.
The AWDs’ Hobart Class Combat System, built around the Aegis Weapon System incorporating the state-of-the-art phased array radar, AN/ SPY 1D(V), will provide an advanced air defence system capable of engaging enemy aircraft and missiles at ranges in excess of 150 kilometres.
The AWDs will carry a helicopter for surveillance and response to support key warfare areas. The surface warfare function will include long range anti-ship missiles and a naval gun capable of firing extended range munitions in support of land forces.
They will also be able to conduct Undersea Warfare and will be equipped with modern sonar systems, decoys, surface-launched torpedoes and an array of effective close-in defensive weapons. These capabilities will ensure the AWDs have the layered defensive and offensive resources required to counter conventional and asymmetric threats.
The Hobart Class Combat System will be amongst the most advanced maritime warfare capabilities available and ensure the RAN has unprecedented levels of interoperability with Australia’s allies.
When Australia’s AWDs enter service in the next decade, they’ll be part of a fleet of around 100 Aegis equipped ships operating across the globe and will spearhead a quantum leap in the RAN’s air warfare capability.
The Hobart Class – Differences from the F100 Class
Navantia’s F104 ship design is the basis for the AWD. The F104 baseline is being updated for AWD to include;
Key F105 features,Australian Combat system modifications, and Selected platform upgrades that are unique to the Hobart Class.
These features are summarised as follows:
F105 Modifications
More efficient and powerful diesel engines coupled with improved fuel tank arrangements will provide increased range,
The inclusion of a bow thruster will improve manoeuvrability in harbours;
Improvements to underway replenishment arrangements for manpower efficiencies;
Changes to funnel tops to improve the ship’s air wake; and
Bunk size increases to improve habitability.
AWD Combat System Modifications
The Hobart Class will use the Aegis Weapon System Baseline 7.1and the AN/SPY-1D(V) Phased Array Radar.
The Under Sea Warfare capability will be upgraded by:
Enhanced Anti Submarine Warfare capabilities and the addition of a torpedo defence system;
ASW decoys for torpedo defence;
Enhanced undersea communications;
Integration of the MU90 torpedo
Other changes include:
Modification of the MK45 gun and Gun Fire Control System, including provision for Extended Range Munitions (ERM);
Addition of the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC);
Modification of the IFF UPX-29 to the current tactical standard;
Addition of an Horizon Search Radar (HSR) for improved anti-ship missile defence;
Upgrades to the Surface-to-Surface Missile System to improve target selectivity in congested water, littoral and coastal operations;
Upgrades to the Very Short Range Defence system to improve its integration and utility against asymmetric surface threats;
Upgrades to the Electronic Warfare system, including the addition of electronic attack capabilities;
Addition of X/Ka Satcom and INMARSAT Fleet Broadband and INMARSAT C capability;
Improved Infrared Search and Track capabilities;
Improved Electro-Optical Surveillance capability;
Addition of Nulka Launchers for active missile decoys;
AWD-Unique Platform Modifications
The ship’s displacement will be increased to 7,000 tonnes for an improved service life margin.
Cold weather operation will be improved to allow for deployment into Australia’s southern waters.
The hangar will be modified to accommodate a range of helicopters.
Other modifications include:
Increased total cold room capacity for improved endurance;
Incorporation of a fixed gas detection system to warn of the presence of harmful gases in compartments where personnel exposure risks exist;
Modification of the 220V/50Hz network to 240V/50 Hz, incorporation of Residual Current Devices (RCD) and the Australian pin configuration for general purpose outlets, and
Modification of existing stowage, and increases in the overall number of stowage facilities, for thermal protective suit and life raft containers.
In what seems like a sci-fi movie of only a few years ago, “artificial intelligence empowered, war fighting drones” teamed with manned command and control are shaping up as the path forward. The last few years have seen several manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) initiatives by the USAF and private industry.
MUM-T has been discussed by for several years and we are now starting to see the progress. The assessment of “drones” as “Loyal Wingman” (Air Force Research Laboratory), and in several other roles are simply early indicators that in some form, this is going to happen.
As reported in the July 2018 Mitchell Institute Policy Paper, “Manned-Unmanned Aircraft Teaming: Taking Combat Airpower to the Next Level”the USAF has a “serious capacity gap when it comes to fulfilling mission requirements with its current inventory”. Later the paper notes that “to defend its interests around the globe,” America needs “a robust and varied toolkit.” The paper addresses roles to be filled by unmanned aircraft, bridging the capacity gap, logistics and much more. It’s an enlightening read that incidentally touches on another Scorpion benefit demonstrated in this initiative, “the value of open missions systems for rapid integration of a variety of packages.”
The move towards MUM-T achieves a number of desirable outcomes; closes the capability gap positively with much lower costs than traditional systems; prioritizes unmanned systems for high threat areas; supports and empowers the information battlespace; may reduce impact of pilot shortage vs capability etc.. and more.
An interesting video of the demonstration shows the Scorpion’s cockpit with display of the integration with Synturian. The demonstration utilized the Live, Virtual and Constructive (LVC) environment, with the Scorpion livein the air, the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in the virtualand the UAS sensors in the constructive.
This is one more example of the transformation that is the 21stcentury battlespace; MUM-T on a Scorpion with Synturian in an LVC environment. LVC is a training methodology that is critical to train cost effectively for missions in the 21stcentury battlespace.
The ability to function as a “node” in the 21stC battlespace space is no longer optional. In LVC participants can experience multi-domain fusion warfare with simple or extraordinarily complex scenarios.
After flying the capability demonstration, Textron Aviation Defense Senior Flight Test Pilot, Brett Pierson commented; “The tactical and operational ramifications of this new capability are enormous.
“Further extending Scorpion’s sensor suite and penetrating a weather layer to generate target coordinates; or creating a triangulated solution independently; or adding layers to a multi-spectral fused solution, deliver an entirely new set of tactical capabilities that have never been possible in a fighter-typed aircraft.”
The capability to extend the kill web through MUM-T is a desirable capability, particularly with new stand-off munitions like the Raytheon SDB-II.
Such a combination certainly extends the mission set and capability of the Scorpion giving it the ability to execute ISR and attack missions at some distance into hostile space – from the relative safety of a more permissive airspace.
Textron extols a similar business model with the Scorpion as has been applied to the smartphone.
In which case, the Synturian System and MUM-T capability looks like a compelling “App” in the Scorpion’s “App store.”
Editor’s Note: When Michael W. Wynne was Secretary of the Air Force, he explicitly focused on linking the benefits of the F-35 able to manage complex air space with weapons and unmanned systems in what he called the wolfpack concept.
The complexity of airspace management is a key challenge facing teaming of weapons, manned and unmanned systems and the inherent capabilities of the F-35 is seen by Secretary Wynne as a key enabler of evolution in this combat area.
In 2015, a Japanese RFP for the development of electro-magnetic rail guns for their aegis destroyers was issued.
In an article published on Navy Recognition on July 22, 2015, details of the development were highlighted.
According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) request for proposal (RfP) to bidding contractors, the 27DD destroyers will incorporate a number of design changes compared to the first batch of Atago class guided missile destroyers.
First, the hull of 27DD has been enlarged to an empty displacement of 8,200 tons compared to the original Atago’s 7,700 tons. It is believed in the Japanese defense community that the enlargement of the hull was conceived in order to provide a necessary growth space for advanced naval weapon systems that are currently under development in Japan, and will be incrementally added to the ships’ arsenal as they are developed — such as railguns and laser point-defense systems.
Like all Japanese combatant ships now being constructed, the 27DD destroyers will be powered by a COGLAG propulsion system (these two, as would be explained again later, would represent a series of essential improvements to the ships’ space and power management and distribution in light of the new weaponry that they will operate in the near future).
On the more minor technical front, the new ships will also equip a new surface-search radar (the AN/SPQ-9B from Northrop Grumman), new anti-ship missiles, a multi-static sonar system, and an enhanced Aegis combat system that will offer better Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC).
Eventually, the Japanese MoD envisions their new AEGIS ships to be the first operating platform of an indigenous naval railgun and laser point-defense system that they are locally developing in Japan. The plan for the railgun armament was outlined in their recently published FY2015 defense budget report…..
On 31 July, Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency has released video footage showing a prototype of electromagnetic railgun for the first time. This is the first official confirmation of the development of a program a new generation of weapons systems for Japan Self-Defense Forces.
Details of the Japanese railgun programme have not yet been made available. It is noted that this electromagnetic railgun weapons system may be outfitted aboard on next-generation destroyers, possibly the Type 27DD.
The railgun utilizes a combination of electric and magnetic force to fire a projectile by means of a sliding armature that is accelerated along a pair of conductive rails. The railgun uses a pair of parallel conductors, or rails, along which a sliding armature is accelerated by the electromagnetic effects of a current that flows down one rail, into the armature and then back along the other rail.
The electromagnetic railgun is capable of firing a projectile 100 miles away and has a low cost of projectiles compared to conventional weaponry.
On top of the reduction in costs per projectile, the railgun limits the need to maintain a large quantity of heavy explosive tipped shells, increasing safety on board navy vessels, and reducing logistics costs and needs. Ships at sea can afford to stay out for longer periods without resupply, reducing the burden of at sea replenishment operations.
According to press reports, two drones armed with explosives detonated near Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on August 4, 2018, in an apparent assassination attempt that took place while he was delivering a speech to hundreds of soldiers, while the speech was being broadcast live on television.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro escaped an “attack” when multiple drones carrying explosives detonated near him as he gave a speech at a military ceremony Saturday, his government say, adding seven soldiers were wounded.
According to an article by Juan Forero and Kejal Vyas published in the Wall Street Journal:
Mr. Maduro, standing beside his wife Cilia Flores, looked up at the sky momentarily as he was promising that “the hour of the economic recuperation” had arrived. His speech ended abruptly, and the broadcast then panned to the face of a young soldier before focusing on the street in front of a makeshift stand where Mr. Maduro had been standing.
Soldiers, who had been standing at attention, could be seen scrambling. In the midst of the confusion, a voice could be heard saying, “Let’s go to the right.”
Scholars who closely follow Venezuelan politics said Mr. Maduro could use the incident to detain foes and tighten his grip on the military. “It’s standard practice for their government to use any public disturbance to crack down further,” said Eric Farnsworth, head of the Washington office of the Council of the Americas.
Some analysts suggested that Saturday’s incident could have been staged by the government for that purpose. They noted that throughout 19 years of rule, Mr. Maduro and predecessor Hugo Chávez frequently claimed to have uncovered plots to depose them without offering details. But Harold A. Trinkunas, deputy director of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, said the images of soldiers running and people onstage being startled were “both dramatic and unfavorable to Maduro.”
“If you wanted an excuse for repression, I think the government would have chosen something that would not make Maduro appear as vulnerable,” he said.
Oleg Vornik, DroneShield’s Chief Executive Officer, commented “The history of commercial drone incidents involving heads of state goes back to September 2013 when the German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s public appearance was disrupted by a drone, which was apparently a publicity stunt by a competing political party.
“Yesterday’s apparent drone assassination attempt on Venezuelan President Maduro is the first known drone attack on a head of state. An attempted drone assassination of a sitting sovereign leader demonstrates that, sadly, the era of drone terrorism has well and truly arrived.”
In a new study published by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, the authors, Thomas Mahnken, Ross Babbage, and Toshi Yoshihara, look at the challenge posed by the authoritarian states in shaping coercive political strategies and how the liberal democracies might respond to them.
They conclude their study in terms of both the need to recognize the challenge and to respond to it.
“Authoritarian regimes in Beijing and Moscow have clearly committed themselves to far-ranging efforts at political warfare that hope to achieve the ability to comprehensively coerce the United States and its allies.
“Only by clearly and frankly acknowledging the problem and organizing the respective governments to respond do we stand a chance of defending fee societies from these sophisticated efforts at manipulating public opinion and the decision-making pace of elected officials and government policy makers.”
In their report, they provide overviews of both the Russian and Chinese approaches and provide good overviews of the approaches.
With regard to Putin, information warfare is a key element of both covering up Russian weaknesses and probing adversaries divisions. Putin came to maturity in the context of the Euromissile crisis and he is leveraging lessons learned in that period for the current one.
In contrast, the Chinese are leveraging significant global reach and investments to expand their ability to influence internal policies in the democratic societies. The Chinese have an economic card significantly greater than anything the Russians can put on the table.
Clearly, there is growing recognition of the Chinese threat, evidenced by books such as the Silent Revolution or by broader discussions of the challenge posed by China in Australia, as an example.
As Ross Babbage put it in an interview in my last visit to Australia with regard to the Australian situation:
Dr. Babbage sees growing recognition in both the United States and Australia about the nature of the challenges facing us.
“To respond is not simply about military capabilities; it is about whole of government capabilities and indeed whole of nation and whole of alliance capabilities.”
“And we need to have a much more open and frank discussion with our publics about the nature of the challenges we are facing.
I think the starting point is to share factual stories about what the Chinese and the Russians are actually doing both within their own societies and also within ours. “
In the report, the authors argued more generally that there is growing recognition of the threat posed by the Chinese approach.
“There are early signs that Beijing’s political warfare operations have awoken many decision-makers in the United States and its close allies to the nature and scale of the strategic challenge posed by China.”
The final chapter addresses recommendations for the United States and its allies.
At the heart of their analysis and their recommendation is simply to recognize the reality of the threat and the tools shaped to challenge cohesion and responses within the liberal democracies.
But how best to do so is a broad challenge indeed given the dynamics of change within the Western societies themselves.
Earlier this year, I visited the new Helsinki-based Center which is focused upon the challenges of information warfare and the various tool sets which authoritarian states are shaping and leveraging to compete with and expand their influence with the liberal democracies.
As I wrote after visiting the Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats:
The work of the Centre is at the vortex of a key vector for liberal democracies, namely the evolution of these democracies under the influence of a 21st century information society and with non-liberal actors seeking to use the new instruments to influence the evolution of the democratic societies.
The underlying dynamic is change within the liberal democracies themselves.
Conflict has deepened, and the internet and associated means of communication have enhanced conflict rather than consensus within the liberal democracies.
President Trump has spoken frequently of “fake news” and although his critics condemn this phrase, we all know it exists and is a core challenge facing the liberal democracies.
It is the change associated with the new means of communication along with the evolution of a more differentiate and disaggregated society which provides the entry point for adversaries to conduct hybrid warfare in the information domain.
In other words, it is not about warfare per se; it is about the evolution of liberal democracies and the expanded tool sets which non-liberal actors have to seek to influence the culture, actions and decisions of the liberal democracies.
In the CSBA study the authors noted the historical example from the Reagan years of the launching of the Strategic Defense Initiative as in part information war.
“The SDI put in motion a chain of events that ultimately made the Soviet leadership aware that it could not compete with the United States in high-technology weaponry.”
I would add however that a relatively ignored piece of this story is the Farwell Affair where President Mitterrand reached out to President Reagan inspite of the ideological hostility of the US Administration to him and informed the President of the significant penetration of the Soviet Union within the highest levels of foreign governments and the US.
The Soviets were stealing US technology at levels even exceeding what the Chinese are now capable of doing.
And through the Farwell Affair, the Soviet operation was shut down and their confidence in what the US was doing in defense technology was dramatically reduced.
A good warning for our times and beyond that allies can help each other even if they have their differences in dealing with the challenges posed by the authoritarian societies.
Also a good reminder that authoritarian societies are never as powerful as they seem.
