VMM-268 Marines “Down Under”

08/05/2024

U.S. Marines with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 263 (Reinforced), Marine Rotational Force – Darwin 24.3, land an MV-22B Osprey on the flight deck of HMAS Adelaide (LO1) as part of deck landing qualifications during a Wet and Dry Exercise Rehearsal, in the Arafura Sea, June 4, 2024.

Marines and Sailors embarked on HMAS Adelaide (L01) alongside their Australian Allies to participate in WADER, transiting from Darwin to Townsville from June 2-20, 2024.

During WADER, elements from the MRF-D Marine Air-Ground Task Force will conduct MV-22B Osprey deck landing qualifications, a live-fire deck shoot, medical subject matter expert exchanges, enhance amphibious fires, command and control, and initiate a ship-to-shore movement in order to set conditions for future operational tasking.

ARAFURA SEA
06.04.2024
Video by Gunnery Sgt. Kassie McDole
Marine Rotational Force – Darwin

EABO and Reworking Aviation Ground Support: The View from 2nd Marine Wing

08/02/2024

By Robbin Laird

As the Marines rework how they approach distributed operations, a key focus is upon how to shape what they call Expeditionary Advanced Operations or EABO. This requires reworking how the air and ground elements operate together to shape a more effective distributed force with reduced force signature and an ability to operate at the point of interest more rapidly and effectively.

The Aviation Ground Support or AGS element of the air wing is of enhanced importance in such operations, but also faces significant challenges in being able to shape the infrastructure for such operations as well.

When I have visited MAWTS-1 over the past few years as the EABO concept has been worked, the AGS personnel I have talked with believed that their role is enhanced and calls for its inclusion as the 7th function of Marine Corps Aviation.

As we wrote in our recent book on MAWTS-1 about a visit to MAWTS-1 in September 2020:

A key element for an evolving combat architecture clearly is an ability to shape rapidly insertable infrastructure to support Marine air as it provides cover and support to the Marine Corps ground combat element. This clearly can be seen in the reworking of the approach of the Aviation Ground Support (AGS) within MAWTS-1 to training for the execution of the Forward Air Refueling Point mission.

During a visit to MAWTS-1 in early September 2020, I had a chance to continue an earlier discussion with Maj. Steve Bancroft, Aviation Ground Support (AGS) Department Head, MAWTS-1, MCAS Yuma. In this discussion it was very clear that the rethinking of how to do FARPs was part of a much broader shift in in combat architecture designed to enable the USMC to contribute more effectively to blue water expeditionary operations.

The focus is not just on establishing FARPs, but to do them more rapidly, and to move them around the chess board of a blue water expeditionary space more rapidly. FARPs become not simply mobile assets, but chess pieces on a dynamic air-sea-ground expeditionary battlespace in the maritime environment.

Given this shift, Maj. Bancroft made the case that the AGS capability should become the seventh key function of USMC Aviation. Currently, the six key functions of USMC Aviation are: offensive air support, anti-air warfare, assault support, air reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and control of aircraft and missiles. Bancroft argued that the Marine Corps capability to provide for expeditionary basing was a core competence which the Marines brought to the joint force and that its value was going up as the other services recognized the importance of basing flexibility, But even though a key contribution, AGS was still too much of a pick-up effort. AGS consists of 78 MOSs or Military Operational Specialties which means that when these Marines come to MAWTS-1 for a WTI, that they come together to work how to deliver the FARP capability.

As Maj. Bancroft highlighted: “The Marine Wing Support Squadron is the broadest unit in the Marine Corps.  When the students come to WTI, they will know a portion of aviation ground support, so the vast majority are coming and learning brand new skill sets, which they did not know that the Marine Corps has. They come to learn new functions and new skill sets.”

His point was rather clear: “if the Marines are going to emphasize mobile and expeditionary basing, and to do so in new ways, it would be important to change this approach.”

Major Bancroft added: “I think aviation ground support, specifically FARP-ing, is one of the most unique functions the Marine Corps can provide to the broader military.

Clearly, senior USMC leadership recognizes the evolving role of AGS in an ability to do EABO.

For example, in the May 2023 Tentative Manual for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations,  2nd Edition, it is noted about AGS:

Marine aviation has unique logistical and engineer support requirements that enable sortie generation. Support for expeditionary aviation necessitates consideration of these capabilities outside the conventional GCE/LCE support system. AGS enables ACE employment in an expeditionary manner. The MWSS is responsible for providing AGS and does this through execution of the six activities of AGS: forward aviation combat engineering operations, airfield operations, base recovery after attack (BRAAT) operations, airfield damage repair (ADR) operations, FARP missions, and aircraft salvage and recovery (ACSR) operations.

To counter peer and near-peer competitors the Fleet Marine Force must persist and win within the WEZ while operating from dispersed and disaggregated locations. The MWSS must be able to rapidly deploy capabilities from the sea and air to subsequently employ, integrate, and displace while simultaneously generating aviation sorties as part of an integrated naval force. EABO success requires integration and employment of AGS capabilities to support Marine, Naval, Combined, and Joint aviation forces across the competition continuum.

AGS focuses on establishing, maintaining, and repairing expeditionary airfields, landing strips, landing zones, and FARPs. Support can be tailored towards fixed wing, rotary wing, tilt-rotor, and unmanned aircraft. Specialized aviation planning and design is required to accomplish these tasks and is provided by subject matter experts resident within the expeditionary airfield company of the MWSS.

Once an airfield is established, the primary tasks of AGS is providing airfield services to include expeditionary airfield (EAF) services, expeditionary firefighting and rescue (EFR), aviation fuels distribution, and explosive ordnance disposal.

The MWSS provides the technical expertise, equipment, and personnel necessary to operate the flight line (e.g., emergency response, aircraft arrestment, aviation refueling, EOD response, managing flight line hours, lighting and marking, and establishing parking).

Another dedicated mission conducted by the MWSS is BRAAT. This is the assessment and restoration of essential airfield operations following an enemy attack involving damage or destruction to the airfield. Aviation units must be restored to the minimum level of combat effectiveness.

The objective of BRAAT is to determine the minimum operating strip, which is the minimum amount of area required to launch and recover aircraft. ADR is conducted concurrently with BRAAT, once areas are cleared to begin repair operations. It is initiated to restore an airfield to the minimum operating capability by using materials, procedures, and techniques for rapid repair of damaged operating surfaces to provide for tactical aircraft launch and recovery operations.

ADR involves extensive engineer, airfield operations, and coordinated support efforts. Specialized ADR planning is required to ensure the proper personnel, equipment, and materials are available to rapidly restore the airfield to a state of sortie generation. The MWSS is responsible for calculating estimates for repair time, material requirements, and executing the mission.

Specific missions performed by the MWSS include FARP and ACSR. A FARP provides fuel and ordnance necessary for highly mobile and versatile helicopter, tiltrotor, and fixed wing operations. The size of the FARP varies with the mission and the number of aircraft to be serviced. The ultimate objective of a FARP is to minimize response time and decrease turn-around time in support of sustained operations. This is achieved by minimizing flight time to-and-from the refueling and rearming point and reducing the refueling and rearming time.

The MWSS is often augmented with personnel from the Marine aviation logistics squadrons for aviation ordnance operations, and Marine aircraft control group personnel to provide air traffic control and communications. Salvaging or recovering an aircraft involves the action of removing an aircraft from a mishap site to facilitate clearance of landing zones, recovery of assets, and repairs to the aircraft.

Execution is for the specific purpose of the safe salvage and/or recovery of aircraft without unnecessary damage to the aircraft. The composition of an ACSR mission may vary and each mission requires a planning process where the quantity, minimum operating strip, and billet of each member taking part in the mission shall be determined to meet mission requirements to support the mission.

Recently, I visited 2nd Marine Wing and visited MWSS-272 to discuss how they were doing in shaping such a significant transition.

In a photo released in 2023, the activities of the wing were recognized and their role identified as follows:

U.S. Marines with Marine Wing Support Squadron (MWSS) 272 pose for a photo at Marine Corps Air Station New River, North Carolina, May 25, 2023. MWSS-272 earned the 2023 James E. Hatch Award for Marine Wing Support Squadron of the Year, given to the most outstanding wing support squadron that enhanced support to aviation by furnishing transportation, engineering, and communication essentials. MWSS‐272 is a subordinate unit of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, the aviation combat element of II Marine Expeditionary Force.

These combat engineers face a significant challenge in terms of working a different kind of mobile operations and will need in my view need to need some new equipment and investments in order to do so.

During my July 2024 visit to New River, I had a chance to talk with Maj. Thomas Cofer, the operations officer at the squadron. Cofer has served in Iraq with the Marines and the Army in Afghanistan and is an experienced combat engineer. And he is working in the squadron to help shape its way ahead.

Throughout the discussion with Maj. Cofer underscored the clear need to reshape their support capabilities to enable to enabled distributed operations. This is how he put it: “You have to have support that can be tailor made to deploy and project power forward.”

This means that you have revamp the force to have support equipment which can be moved more rapidly than legacy gear. The Marine Corps has introduced new equipment and technology to the MWSS that facilitates their ability to accomplish their mission quicker and more efficiently to include advanced technology for BRAAT and ADR mission. However, replacing earth moving equipment is difficult due to the nature of its mission. This is clearly a work in progress.

As he put it: “Some of our support equipment are too heavy to be transported, right?

“We have recently done an exercise in the Bahamas for Distributed Aviation Operations Exercise, and we had to scale some of our planning back because of the limited ship-to-shore connectors available, and the weight of some of the support equipment.

“We need to be able to provide support with a lighter and more mobile package. I think that’s going to be the key to success moving forward.”

German JTACs at Townsend Bombing Range

Soldiers with the German Army’s 6th Battery, 345th Artillery Battalion, perform close-air support training at Townsend Bombing Range, Georgia, Feb. 21, 2024.

Joint branch training with NATO allies ensures personnel utilize similar procedures and can operate together.

02.21.2024
Video by Lance Cpl. Christian Cutter
Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort

The New Revolution in Military Affairs and Force Structure Change: The Perspective of LtGen Heckl

08/01/2024

By Robbin Laird

I had the chance recently to meet with LtGen Heckl, the Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development and Integration, at his office in Quantico. He is retiring from the USMC this month, so this is my exit interview with him.

As such, I asked him to look back at his time with the command and the general challenge of force structure change to deal with the evolving global military set of challenges.

He emphasized three key developments which have shaped his time at the command.

First, he underscored that the U.S. military and its allies are facing a revolution in military affairs. When that phrase was coined, it referred to the significance of precision warfare leading to an ability to enhance force capability to defeat an adversary who did not have such capability.

As Peter Munson noted in a 2013 article:

When you read more deeply about the RMAs, for example in Williamson Murray and Macgregor Knox’s masterful edited volume, The Dynamics of Military Revolution: 1300 – 2050, you can see that the RMAs were much more than military revolutions. They were revolutions in socio-political affairs. Knox and Murray list:

The seventeenth century creation of the nation-state and the “large-scale organization of disciplined military power”

The French Revolution’s merging of “mass politics and warfare”

The Industrial Revolution and the subsequent ability to “arm, clothe, feed, pay, and move swiftly to battle” the masses unleashed by nationalism

The First World War, which combined the nationalistic fervor of the French Revolution with the refined legacy of the Industrial Revolution in a now-familiar pattern of modern warfare

And finally, the advent of nuclear weapons as the technological crown of total war

All but the last of these revolutions were more socio-political and economic than technical, though each created huge organizational, technical, and tactical changes. The military revolutions were only smaller included pieces of much larger changes. The military progression, however, cannot be extracted from the socio-political context or vice versa. As Charles Tilly famously said, “War makes the state and the state makes war.”

When LtGen Heckl spoke of his understanding of the current RMA, he underscored the coming of autonomous systems and machine learning as infusing change in the force and requiring the force to adapt and incorporate changes associated with these developments into on ongoing force design.

But to Munson’s point cited above, such a change is also associated with socio-political and economic changes, and for this variant of the RMA, it is unfolding in the context of the emergence of significant authoritarian powers and movements, and the need for liberal democratic allies to find more effective ways to work together rather than just relying on a single global power which was the United States and its military.

This RMA is associated with the opportunity and necessity for the United States and its allies to more effectively collaborate in dealing with proliferating threats and challenges from authoritarian states and movements.

That led to his second change. He underscored the importance of the U.S. military working with allies. As he put it: “You will never see me saying JADC2. I always say CJADC2 or coalition C2 and the need to work together from a common operating picture.”

This is of course hard, but LtGen Heckl noted that the new Neller Center at Quantico had been stood up in part to facilitate such change. LtGen Heckl emphasized that the wargaming and analysis center will be able to facilitate greater allied collaboration of the type he considers necessary as part of the new RMA, with data-driven outcomes to facilitate better decision-making

The Marine Corps now integrates allies and partners into exercises and experimentation more frequently, has expanded its coalition training opportunities, and is working to create relationships that support a more globally dispersed logistics framework.

Third, there is an emphasis on speeding up the incorporation of technology into the force.

Here the emphasis has been upon introducing protypes into the force and having the warriors determine their utility and, if demonstrated as such, finding ways to incorporate that technology.

As LtGen Heckl said, “I am not focused on multiple FYDP acquisitions; I am looking for ‘the future  is now’ capabilities.”

This includes collaborating more closely with industry, navigating a complex acquisition process to field technologies sooner and changing training to ensure tactical proficiency at the lowest level.

In this regard, he focused on counter-UAV technologies, and he pointed out that four different capabilities are coming into the force next year. The basic approach is to enable ground combat Marines to deal with UAV threats and have the air arm of the Marine Air Ground Task Force  deal with broader air defense issues.

He also underscored the central significance of C2 modernization, notably when distributing the force.

A key part of the strategic redesign of U.S. and allied forces is force distribution for survival, but C2 is critical to tie those forces together to get the kind of lethality the force needs to prevail.

LtGen Heckl highlighted that two prototype units have been developed and used by the Marines to provide for C2 at the tactical edge. These two TENX or tactical edge node expeditionary units have provided for movement of data for C2 successfully and could be adopted more generally in the force.

LtGen Heckl also mentioned that the Army and the Marine Corps are pursing rapid acquisition of attack and logistics drones and autonomous systems. They are programs built by different defense companies, but the two services are cooperating in understanding the common possibilities of use.

The Marine Corps has been transformed by its air capabilities, from the MV-22 Osprey to the F-35 Lightening II to the CH-53 King Stallion. The new RMA leverages these platforms and their capabilities in various ways. Much of the dynamic changes are associated with payloads and their rapid upgradeability associated with more attributable platforms co-joined with the payloads.

For example, TENEX can be carried by an Osprey, and the speed, range and ability to be at height allows it to be available for a variety of combat capabilities that can be clustered together by a common C2.

Additionally, the ability of the global F-35 fleet to share common data and provide an ISR “blue blanket” is a key part of being able to leverage new capabilities generated by the new RMA.

But it is about force structure change within strategic redesign of U.S. and allied military policies and the technological advances providing expanded capabilities that allow the Services to meet the challenges of the new landscape.

Author’s Note: I found this article published in 2023 as very suggestive of the kind of changes which LtGen Heckl was highlighting. And not surprisingly, this was done by his previous command, I MEF.

Pacific Marines Conduct Command and Control Exercise

13 Feb 2023

By Chuck Little

CAMP H.M. SMITH, Hawaii —

“The Future is Now.” That phrase is as true today in the United States Marine Corps as it is anywhere.

In late January through early February, Pacific Marines from California and Japan demonstrated their ability to work together and synchronize all-domain effects from Hawaii across the Indo-Pacific region for the Joint force and interagency partners.

During the exercise, Marines from I MEF’s Marine Air Control Group 38, and other critical enablers including the I MEF Information Group and Fires and Effects Coordination Center, deployed to Hawaii from southern California and Arizona. In Okinawa, Japan, III MEF forces brought together capabilities at the task-force level in the First Island Chain, and served as a higher-echelon node for the I MEF team now operating in Hawaii.

“We rapidly went from an idea to establishing a fully-functional command and control structure that can connect two MEF-level Task Forces as Pacific Marines, stretching from Okinawa to Oahu,” said Col. Jeremy S. Winters, the commanding officer of MACG-38, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing

Once on the ground in Hawaii, this team established and operated an expeditionary command and control node from an austere location using both organic equipment as well as equipment provided by III MEF forces.

“We fell in on 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment equipment to show the interoperability of the MLR with the MEF-level command and control systems, which also connect into the Joint force,” said Winters.

The Hawaii C2 node, which can operate in contested terrain, was comprised of a Multi-Function Air Operations Center and a Multi-Domain Operations Center. These were plugged into an All-Domain Operations Center that was established in Okinawa by III MEF.

The MAOC’s mission is to generate an integrated tactical picture of the operating environment in order to control aircraft and missiles, enable decision superiority, gain and maintain custody of adversary targets, hold those adversary targets at risk, and enable the engagement of targets in all domains as directed in support of Marine Corps, Naval, Joint, Ally and Partner forces.

The MDOC executes deliberate and dynamic kill chains via the fusion of command and control, intelligence and fires. The ADOC in Okinawa had a similar mission, but coordinated command and control, intelligence and fires at a higher echelon – at the Task Force-level.

This multi-echelon, all-domain C2 system was linked into every service and functional component command and control system in U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. It was also linked into organic, Joint and interagency sensors, and intelligence and space/cyber elements. Together, these created a common intelligence picture and a common operating picture of the Indo-Pacific maritime environment, to include possible threats. These pictures inform decision-making and enable the Marines to synchronize organic, Joint, and/or interagency fires – both lethal and non-lethal – across air, sea, land, space and cyber to achieve specific, desired effects.

The ADOC/MDOC-led all-domain C2 system conducted six days of Joint and partner exercises inside the first island chain. A full mission debrief was given Feb. 7, 2023, to Adm. John Aquilino, commander, USINDOPACOM, Lt. Gen. William Jurney, commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific, and other senior leaders from each of the Hawaii-based component commands.

“As the multi-domain space grows, we wanted to demonstrate how the Marine Corps’ traditional approach to Marine Air-Ground Task Force operations – the ‘single battle concept’ – offers a good example for the rest of the Joint force. Once you get people out of their functional or service stovepipes and oriented on a single, integrated Joint battlespace, we can really start to create operational and tactical tempo as a Joint force. It’s about combined arms, in multiple domains,” said Winters.

The MAOC was linked into a MDOC, as well as organic, Joint, and interagency sensors, widely dispersed throughout the operating area. These included an AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar S-band radar and a Composite Tracking Network, which integrates ground, surface, and airborne sensors. Together, these systems fed a common intelligence and operating picture of the maritime threat environment, stretching from the continental United States, through Hawaii, out to the first island chain.

Winters described his Marines’ function this way. “Our job is to take all these Joint kinetic and non-kinetic Joint force shooters, integrate them via a fused, tactical picture containing both intelligence and tactical track data, and enhance the lethality at the tactical edge. We leveraged the existing relationships and technologies that Marine Air Control Groups and MIGs have with our Joint and partner forces to really integrate all their disparate domain-centric pictures, into an integrated, single-battle picture,” Winters added.

This innovative approach to multi-domain operations is yet another fleet-led initiative to achieve the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030 plan. FD2030 calls for new ways of thinking and operating, especially in the Indo-Pacific theater, relying on smaller, agile units capable of sensing and making sense of potential adversary movements and actions, putting – and holding – those potential adversaries at risk, and redeploying before being held at risk themselves. This is a challenging task, especially given the vast distances over which forces may have to operate in the Indo-Pacific, but Marines have never been known to back down from a challenge.

The Marines’ ability to establish this expeditionary, all-domain integration node in contested terrain bolsters the Joint force and coalition partners, integrated deterrence, and the National Defense Strategy.

“It’s really about all-domain, combined arms,” said Winters. “You don’t have to own the thing to integrate the thing. MACG-38 doesn’t normally work with space and cyber people, but my goal is to deconflict and integrate our operations from theirs and sequence them in space, time and effect to have an out-sized impact on our adversary. This MDOC is the first time we’ve had space and cyber there and made a fires and effects plan with them. That’s super powerful, and exactly what our combatant commander is looking for.”

Featured image: US Marine Corps LtGen. Karsten S. Heckl, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command and Deputy Commandant, Combat Development and Integration, and a native of Stone Mountain, GA, speaks to US Marines from Marine Wing Communications Squadron 38, 9th Communications Battalion, Marine Corps Tactical Systems Support Activity, and the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory during Project Convergence Capstone 4, March 04, 2024 at Camp Pendleton, CA.

PC-C4 is an Army-hosted, all-Service and multinational experiment. During PC-C4, the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory tested new technologies and capabilities and emerging concepts, including the multi-domain corridor. The Marine Corps’ participation in PC-C4 supported Force Design initiatives, integrated Joint force and Coalition capabilities into experimentation, and demonstrated the Marine Corps’ commitment to the Joint Warfighting Concept .

CAMP PENDLETON

03.04.2024

Photo by Kevin Ray Salvador 

Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory | Futures Directorate

VMFA-312 Distributed Aviation Operations Exercise 24

07/31/2024

U.S. Marines with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 312 conduct flight operations over Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, June 4, 2024.

VMFA-312 supported Distributed Aviation Operations Exercise 24, which is designed to distribute command and control of aviation forces across echelons of command, pushing authorities to the lowest levels, while keeping forces moving between airfields and air sites.

NAVAL AIR STATION KEY WEST, FLORIDA,
06.04.2024
Video by Lance Cpl. Orlanys Diaz Figueroa
2nd Marine Aircraft Wing

Dealing with a Multi-Polar Authoritarian World: The Case of the War on Ukraine

07/27/2024

By Robbin Laird

This is our 15th year of publishing.

Next year, we are publishing a book highlighting our analyses of that 15-year period.

We have seen a dramatic change from the 1990s where the United States was in a pole position to re-shape the world and craft a way ahead for Western civilization. We are now in a world not of our making.

The rise of the 21st century authoritarian states and movements have driven change in the global situation to which the liberal democracies have incoherently responded. And conflicts within our societies are providing significant rifts and disagreements which provide enhanced opportunities for multi-polar authoritarianism to further enhance their position.

Globalization as envisaged in the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century is over  We have entered a new world in which dealing with adversaries is part of the strategic competition. We did so in the 1980s when I worked on various issues involving the Soviet Union.

But now there is a legacy of not talking to your adversaries and viewing this as a form of accommodation and weakness. Talking to your adversaries is not simply about acquiescing in what they want but better positioning yourself for the next phase of the competition.

A clear case in point is Ukraine. The goal of pushing Russia completely out of Ukraine and continuing indefinitely a war of attrition does not work to Ukraine’s long term advantage nor it is a sustainable policy for Ukraine’s allies.

A cease-fire now involves a vigorous period of strategic competition involving diplomacy, rebuilding and protecting Ukraine’s sovereignty. None of this can be achieved without dealing with the Russians and Putin.

Recently, Kate Davidson and Raphael J. Piliero published a piece in The National Interest which provided a thoughtful piece on a realistic way ahead.

They argued:

The top priority for Ukraine and its allies should be achieving terms that minimize risks to Ukraine’s sovereignty by creating a durable, sustainable peace: long-term military aid and multilateral security guarantees, Ukrainian military neutrality, and a rebuilding effort alongside economic integration with the West.

First, long-term military aid offers the best protection for Ukrainian sovereignty. Western aid and training after the 2014 invasion were enough to prepare Ukraine to deliver a shocking failure to Russia in its 2022 assault on Kyiv…

The West should offer Ukraine security guarantees that are stronger than the “assurances” offered in the Budapest Memorandum. As part of that, the United States could commit to surge aid in the event of renewed Russian aggression. The United States’s existing agreement is a framework that can be built upon for a more robust set of protections.

Second, Ukraine should reinstate its former neutrality. For their part, Western leaders should publicly recognize Ukraine’s neutral stance….  

Third, Ukraine must be rebuilt… 

While Ukraine need not relinquish its claims to territory that is rightfully theirs, insisting that all territory be returned before any negotiations, as Zelensky has, will likely detract from opportunities to cement its sovereignty. Given the choice to prioritize territorial concessions or multilateral security guarantees in peace negotiations, Ukraine would be best served by making itself as strong and steady as possible. 

As Ukraine and its Western allies formulate a strategy to end the war, leaders should remember what matters most in Ukraine: sovereignty. The key will be designing a peace that is not only resilient against future Russian aggression but also sustainable for the Ukrainian people. We hope that leaders in both the United States and Ukraine, armed with the knowledge of how past wars ended, can succeed in ensuring Ukraine remains sovereign and prosperous for decades to come.

Well none of this can be accomplished without dealing with the Russians and negotiating from strength. We did this in the past: it is even more necessary now that the “end of history” has turned into the end of the global dominance of the liberal democracies.

Featured Image: Photo 53152427 © Igor Dolgov | Dreamstime.com

An Update on Dassault in the Context of French Political Uncertainty: July 2024

07/26/2024

By Pierre Tran

Paris – The background to sales of the Rafale fighter and Falcon business jets was “uncertainty” due to general elections in Europe and France, and president Joe Biden standing down in the U.S. election campaign, Dassault Aviation executive chairman Eric Trappier said July 23.

There was “concern” on this uncertainty in France, as it was not clear over “the next few weeks” what kind of government would be formed, he told a news conference on first-half financial results. It would probably be in September a new government emerged, he said.

Meanwhile, Biden’s announcement he will not stand for a second term meant there would be “a certain ‘happening’ in the next few months,” he said.

The U.S. accounts for a major part of the sales of the Falcon, with the company’s North American office operating out of Little Rock, Arkansas. Falcon sales rose to €980 million in the first half, up from €827 million a year ago.

Trappier said he has placed a top priority on building the Rafale twin-engine fighter, following a special request from the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

“In France, the president of the Republic, as head of the armed forces, wrote to defense manufacturers urging them to step up their efforts in the context of a war economy,” the chief executive said. “In response to this call, I instructed Dassault Aviation employees to prioritize Rafale production, both for France and for export.”

There was also war in Ukraine and a state of war in the Middle East, in the market background, he said.

Macron told July 23 France 2 national television there would effectively be a political suspension for the next few weeks, as Paris played host to the Olympic Games, which will open on Friday and run to Aug. 11.

“Until mid-August, we’re in no position to change things, because it would create disorder,” the French head of state said.

Macron was replying to the leftist-green coalition New Popular Front proposing a senior civil servant, Lucie Castets as the next prime minister in the new government, when Gabriel Attal stepped down from his caretaker post at Matignon.

It was not a case of deciding on a name for the prime minister’s office, but forging a coalition majority in the lower house National Assembly, Macron said.

In the meantime, French companies were in deep uncertainty on what kind of government to expect, unclear as to future government measures, the changes in law, tax, and standards, Trappier said, adding that he was putting on his hat as chair of UIMM, an employers association for the metals industry.

Some 90 percent of the trade body were small and medium companies, and highly concerned, as were investors, particularly foreign backers, he said.

The New Popular Front won a narrow majority of 182 parliamentary seats in the July 7 parliamentary election, followed by Macron’s centrist Ensemble with 168, and the far-right   National Rally, previously named National Front, trailing in third place with 143 seats.

That lack of absolute majority left the political parties struggling to form a coalition. Macron was staying on as president, expected to struggle with a fragile administration of coalition partners. While other European countries have wide experience of coalition governments, France has since the constitution of the Fifth Republic in 1958 usually been led by a single party in power, with a president of the same alignment.

Supply Chain Woes

Meanwhile, Dassault was doing what it could to help small and medium companies struggling with serious problems in its supply chain, Trappier said, and the prime contractor was ready to sign fresh Rafale deals.

Subcontractors of the fuselage aerostructure were in difficulty, and the company was sending its staff to help suppliers, and was making advance payment to ease their financial problems.

That supply problem was common to the aircraft industry, with the European airliner builder Airbus forced to scale back production targets, having overtaken Boeing in a market dominated by the two companies.

Despite that struggle with the supply chain, the company was doing everything it could to deliver on time, and was ready to win new fighter deals, the chief executive said.

“I am fairly optimistic on our capacity to deliver,” he said. “And I am ready to sign new contracts for the Rafale.”

Dassault was continuing talks with Serbia and Colombia, he said on the sidelines of the news conference. Saudi Arabia has previously indicated interest in the Rafale, as an alternative to the Eurofighter, which had been blocked by Germany. Berlin has since approved a sale.

The company delivered 13 Rafales last year, short of the planned 15, with that shortfall due to problems in the supply chain.

Tempest Doubts

Elsewhere in Europe, British prime minister Keir Starmer opened July 22 the Farnborough air show, and pointed up the significance of the global combat air programme (GCAP), but could not guarantee the new fighter project would go ahead.

That was in the hands of George Robertson, a former defense minister and ex-Nato secretary general, who was conducting a defense review, due to be completed the first half of next year.

British electors returned three weeks ago a center-left Labour government with an unprecedented 410 parliamentary seats, trouncing the Conservative party, which lost some 250 seats and was now the loyal opposition in a 650-seat parliament.

That decisive change of government led to the launch of a wide-ranging defense review, which cast doubt on whether there would be political support for the GCAP, based on the Tempest new generation fighter, partnered with Italy and Japan.

Trappier said he had seen the model of the Tempest on display at Farnborough, and was aware of the efforts to promote the fighter project in the light “of a certain reserve” on whether the fighter project would advance or not.

On the European future combat air system (FCAS), he said studies in phase 1B were under way, and there was preparation for deciding on work share, namely “who does what,’ on a technology demonstrator. Work on building the demonstrator was due to start in 2026.

Dassault is prime contractor on the new generation fighter (NGF) at the heart of FCAS, partnered with Germany and Spain. Belgium has signed up as observer, looking for a place at the industrial partnership table.

Profit Rise

Dassault reported a rise in first-half adjusted operating profit to €170 million from €151 million a year ago, with adjusted net profit rising to €442 million from €405 million.

The latter was a net profit margin of 17.4 percent of sales, down from 17.6 percent.

Adjusted sales rose to €2.5 billion from €2.3 billion, while orders climbed to €5.1 billion from €1.7 billion.

The cash holding rose to €8.8 billion from €7.3 billion, while the value of the order book rose to €41.2 billion, with 223 Rafales and 83 Falcons, compared to €38.5 billion, with 211 Rafales and 84 Falcons.

An order for an 18-strong batch of Rafales for Indonesia came into effect in January, which was the third and last order from Jakarta, bringing the total order to 42.

The company delivered six Rafales to France, leaving a remaining batch of 14 fighters to be shipped for the French air force in the second half.

The book-to-bill ratio, or orders to sales, was at two in the first half.

The company has received a total of 495 Rafales to date. The engineers were working on development of the F4 standard, while preparing for the F5 model, which will fly with a combat drone loyal wingman.