2016-03-21 By Robbin Laird

I had a chance to meet with students and to give a presentation at the Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies which is part of the Australian Defence College.

I made a presentation last year to the Williams Foundation, and this discussion was a follow on to that.

Russia seems a long way away when you are in Australia although Russia has gotten Australian attention in many ways, such as showing up in Syria with the Australian Air Force participating in coalition operations in the area or bringing warships off of the coast of Australia.

In a press roundtable with the Australian media, the head of the Royal Australian Air Force noted that although the RAAF has flown from time to time into Syrian air space, they had no real problems with Russian aircraft.

But he seemed happy to have done these flights with the support of their E-7 air battle management and surveillance aircraft to sort out various players in the airspace.

And in November 2014, the Russians showed up with warships off of the coast of Australia.

The Australians sent out some warships to sort out what was going on, but I am sure they were reassured by the Russian answer concerning why the Russian navy had shown up near Australia.

RUSSIA has for the first time explained the presence of a fleet of warships off north-eastern Australia, saying that the ships are testing their range capability, in case they have to do climate change research in the Antarctic.

The Russian embassy also said the fleet could, if necessary, provide security for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who arrives in Brisbane for the G20 tonight.

The four Russian warships are conducting exercises in international waters around the Coral Sea in a move that has been interpreted as a show of force by M. Putin.

Moscow’s explanation comes as Defence said a third Australian naval ship has been deployed to monitor the fleet, with a fourth nearby.

Our discussion focused largely on the interaction between Russia and the evolving strategic context, in which Putin can be seen as a reshaping force.

Putin clearly is using force in ways to support Russian national objectives and in dividing when he can democratic states over key objectives.

He has brought Russia back into the game, and has done so in a way that has combined several elements of power.

He shapes convergence among information warfare, force packages and an ability to set specific objectives, rather than having vague long term military engagements set prior to sending the military on overseas operations with end date in sight.

What he has demonstrated is that the military trend to shape more effective intervention forces needs to be combined with a civilian capability to set limited objectives which allow the state to succeed up to the level of those objectives.

The experience of using Russia’s combat aircraft in Syria inspires optimism, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said at a meeting on the development of the country’s combat aviation on Wednesday.

“I want to say at once that the experience of the combat use of our aviation in Syria testifies to the high mastership of the design potential and our designers and technologists,” Rogozin said, adding that the skills and courage of Russian combat aviation pilots should be added to this.

This is in stark contrast with the democratic state’s ability to send force, but not to set limited objectives and seemingly unable to withdraw without the specter of failing to have mission success.

We have written about shaping 21^st century intervention forces and the setting of limited objectives to be met with such force and then to withdraw.

Ironically, the only political leader who seems to get this is Vladimir Putin.

And pushing up to the edge and using various tools to achieve objectives was recently focused upon as well by James Durso.

The Russians are masters of hybrid warfare.

As Chairman of NATO’s military committee Petr Pavel noted, they “…create an influence that is strong enough, but below the threshold of Article 5, so they achieve the goals without provoking the enemy or opponent to initiate a defense response.”

A question was raised by one of the students at the College with regard to migration issue and Russian involvement.

The issue was the statement by SACEUR with respect to Russian actions in the Middle East.

The exchange between what SACEUR said and how the Russians responded is instructive of how the Russians use Information War very effectively.

US Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, Commander of the US European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, said that the migrant crisis facing Europe is allowing terror elements into the continent undetected, with actions by the Islamic State (IS), Moscow, and Damascus pushing people out of Syria and Iraq and into the European system.

“Europe faces the dawning challenge of mass migration spurred by state instability and state collapse, a migration that masks the movement of criminals, terrorists, and foreign fighters,” Breedlove said at a Pentagon press briefing.

“Within this mix, [IS] is spreading like a cancer, taking advantage of paths of least resistance, threatening European nations and our own with terrorist attacks.”

Breedlove also said that his information suggests that radical foreign fighters have left from Europe to join groups like IS and subsequently reentered unchecked.

“As many as 9,000 fighters have gone, and as much as 1,500 fighters have returned back to Europe,” he said, adding that they bring with them the potential for future terror attacks.

Breedlove also had strong words for Russia, saying that its recent actions have placed it in opposition to US and NATO goals in the region, and that the Syrian government and its ally are “deliberately weaponizing migration in an attempt to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve.”

http://www.dailynewsx.com/news/business-news/nato-commander-russia-and-syria-are-using-migration-as-a-weapon-52740.html

And the Russian response?

Moscow was amused by the top NATO General’s claims that it is using the refugee crisis as a “weapon” against the West, with the Defense Ministry’s spokesman saying such rhetoric reaffirms concerns of Breedlove’s apparent dislocation of memory.

“Taking into account that such recurrence of the ‘sunshine of the spotless mind’ appeared right before the scheduled meeting of the Armed Services Committee, there is no wonder that a decision has been made by the US congressmen to replace him on his post of the Commander-in-Chief of the NATO Joint Force in Europe,” Konashenkov said.

Konashenkov once again pointed out that Moscow could not have possibly been the reason for the refugee crisis, which began long before Russia launched its anti-terror operations in Syria. And unlike the anti-ISIS coalition, Russia’s operations in Syria have alleviated the refugee crisis in the country and led to the first step of the establishment of a peace-making process, Konashenkov added.

“Essential is the fact that as a results of the Russian operation, the UN is registering the reduction of refugee flows from Syria and a process of reconciliation has been initiated, which is something the Western so-called “anti-ISIS coalition” has been unable to achieve over the previous three years of their “fight” against terrorism,” Konashenkov stated.

 Responding to the “indiscriminate” and “non-precision” bombing claims, Konashenkov reminded the NATO general that precision of airstrike depends not only on smart weapons, but also on proper intelligence, pilot’s skills and aiming systems of the aircraft.

“Sole reliance on ‘supersmart’ or ‘superprecision’ weapons leads American hawks to tragic mistakes with fatal consequences, as it was repeatedly observed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and since recently – in Syria,” Konashenkov said.

https://www.rt.com/news/334363-breedlove-spotless-mind-sunshine/

Given this exchange – advantage Russia.

The reality is that the Russians have not taken any real responsibility for sorting or solving the migrant crisis.

But they certainly have not caused the crisis, nor or they especially supportive of terrorists moving throughout the region and coming among other places into Russia itself.

The blunt fact is that Russia has taken some degree of responsibility for Syria and should be brought into the effort to deal with the migrant crisis as part of their Syrian engagement.

European institutions and resolve are under stress and threat due to internal reasons, notably the Euro crisis, the pressures on security structures in the European Union and many other factors, and one could certainly argue that Russia is doing precious little to help this process and could be viewed as exacerbating it.

But they are not CAUSING it.

Turning the migration issue into a Russia versus the West issue is not going to do much to sort out the crisis.

One way to deflect Putin’s efforts is to hold him partly accountable for the future of Syria.

That would then take his limited objectives in Syria to a level where he would find a level of discomfort.

And if he responds well, that is good thing; if he does not then he has been exposed to be doing something perhaps short of Breedlove is saying, but moving in that direction.

Secretary Kerry once accused Putin of being 19^th not 21^st century in character.

Unfortunately, Putin is very 21^st century but remembers some of the lessons of the powers of the late 19^th century in terms of how to achieve limited objectives.

And in some ways, he is using 21st century means to pursue 19th century objectives as well.

2016-03-18 By Robbin Laird

On March 17, 2016, in Canberra, Australia, the Williams Foundation held a seminar looking at the evolution of fifth generation enabled combat transformation which focused on new approaches to air-land integration.

And the seminar followed the two-day RAAF Airpower Conference, which addressed a broad range of airpower issues, and during the second day explicitly looked at the RAAF’s transformation approach, Plan Jericho.

Over the next few weeks, I will publish several pieces on the discussions over the three days, as well as a report for the Williams Foundation on their conference.

Next up is a look at new approaches to air-sea integration as well, and one of the major participants at the air-land integration seminar would certainly be relevant to the air-sea integration seminar, namely the USMC which is working at the seams of air-sea-land integration.

In addition, we will be publishing several interviews with the RAAF and the Royal Australian Army to provide further perspectives on the evolving transformation approach.

The former Chief of Staff of the Royal Australian Air Force, Geoff Brown, was the organizer for the event, and provided navigation throughout the day through the diverse presentations, as well as providing significant input to the final event of the day, the panel with senior leaders.

The current Chief of Staff of the RAAF, Air Marshal Leo Davies, provided an overview on the RAAF’s approach to transformation and his priority on shaping new approaches to operating with the ground forces.  It is not just about having a new fleet; it is about shaping new capabilities for the joint force, but one which is to be understood as multi-dimensional and not simply about who is supporting whom in a particular operation.

Several themes stood out from the Seminar.

The first was how significant the rethink on Army’s part really is.

The Chief of Staff clearly underscored that the land wars of the past decade are not the template for moving forward and saw the need and opportunity to shape new ways to integrate airpower with ground maneuver forces in providing for more effective capabilities in the contested battlespace.

The second was the reshaping of Army modernization to achieve the force envisaged by the Army Chief of Staff.

Brigadier General Mills, the head of Army Modernization, provided a hard hitting look at the Army and how the evolving force could shape a more distributed operational and decision making force, one which he saw as providing for 21^st century ground maneuver forces.

The third was the clear synergy between the USMC and Plan Jericho.

Lt. General Davis, Deputy Commandant of Aviation, provided a comprehensive and hard hitting presentation on how the Marine Corps was evolving under the influence of the new technologies, the Osprey and the F-35, and how the focus of the Corps was upon “equipping the 21^st century Marine,” rather than “manning the equipment.”

Davis highlighted that the Corps was working at the seams of air-land-sea integration, and described how he thought the tiltrotar revolution started with the Osprey would continue. He also provided an update on how the F-35 was fitting into the USMC’s overall approach to transformation.

He noted that the young pilots for the F-35 were already pushing the envelope on Close Air Support, and flying the F-35 into Nellis ranges through complicated red threats and being able to come out the other side and provide the maneuver force with various types of support, fires, ISR and C2.

The fourth was a clear response to industry to the Plan Jericho challenge to evolve differently in relationship to the evolution of the Australian Defense Force.

The Northrop Grumman presentation provided a clear look at the evolution of C2 capabilities in line with a transformed force; the Rockwell Collins presentation looked at how the JTAC role will change with new technologies; the L3 presentation provided a look at how commercial technologies could be leveraged to provide for the kind of cost effective and dynamic technological innovation which could support the connectivity needs for the RAAF.

And in an interview with the “Jericho Twins,” Group Captains Jake Campbell and Pete Mitchell, they underscored that indeed C2 transformation was emerging as a key thread for transformation in shaping a way ahead.

There were other threads to the discussion which we will highlight in the days to come, including, the evolution of training to build a 21^st century force, the evolution of the remotely piloted aircraft to work in an evolving battlespace, the challenge of ensuring that we get the right information to the right people at the right time, the evolution of Army force projection with the new RAAF airlift capabilities, and the future of providing for forward air control from the air in the contested battlespace.

What is clear is that the Aussies are at the cutting edge of the rethink of how to reshape an integrated 21^st century force.

2016-03-16 By Robbin Laird

The first of a two day conference on Air Power hosted by the Royal Australian Air Force featured a keynote presentation by the Minister of Defence.

This represented her first major policy statement after the release of the White Paper and associated documents.

For an American attending the conference what was clear was that the Minister has followed defense issues for a long time and has a demonstrated mastery of the issues.

This was no walking through a speech written by others, but a clear statement of how she saw the issues as part of the current government.

I have read through the White Paper documents and have written pieces providing some initial analyses.

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/australia-re-sets-its-defense-policy-the-defence-white-paper-2016-looks-beyond-the-platform-shopping-list/

Listening to the Minister certainly brought both context and emphasis to the White Paper.

One issue which jumped out was a clear statement of how the strategic environment had changed and the importance of Australia focusing its attention on modernizing defense and enhancing its capabilities to work with core allies, including its regional partners.

There was no free ride issue which one often sees with too many NATO partners.

A second issue was underscoring the importance of shaping an integrated force that was capable of flexible and agile operations, and with a high demand humanitarian work load for the Australian Defence Force, this means across the spectrum of operations.

A third issue – after emphasizing IT and networks – was a clear understanding that a modernized force may be great but without the proper infrastructure, including logistics, the modernization effort would not really have its intended effects.

It is of course not just improved ICT networks and systems and capability that will underpin our future Air Force over the next two decades.

One of the defining features of the 2016 Defence White Paper and Integrated Investment Program is the renewed focus on enabling capabilities.

In fact, 25 per cent of the Integrated Investment Program is allocated to the enabling projects, which help to bind our capabilities – whether it’s our airfields, our bases, our wharves, our ordnance facilities or our logistics systems, just to name several.

I have always felt that understanding the central role of logistics is a key discriminator between those who actually understand defense operations and those who do not.

Clearly, the Minister put herself on the side of defense professionals in her emphasis on funding the enabling factors.

http://www.minister.defence.gov.au/2016/03/15/minister-for-defence-2016-royal-australian-air-force-air-power-conference-national-convention-centre-act/

2016 Royal Australian Air Force Air Power Conference – National Convention Centre, ACT

Tuesday, 15 March 2016

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Let me begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet this morning and pay my respects to their elders, past, present and future.

Chief of Air Force, Air Marshal Davies, I thank you very much for the invitation to address this important event and for your kind words of introduction. I echo your welcome to all delegates to this conference. In particular, I extend a very warm welcome to the many visiting Chiefs of Air Forces and international delegations, particularly also to my Ministerial colleague, the Minister for Defence Materiel, Dan Tehan, to our important partners from industry and to our many other distinguished guests and invited speakers.

As the Chief of Air Force said, the fact that more than 1,000 delegates are gathered here today, including a significant number of international Air Force Chiefs, a contingent of United States Commanders in the Pacific, and senior Air Power representatives from around the world, does attest to the very high regard in which this conference is held. I welcome you all to our Nation’s capital.

I say in advance, before the morning unfolds too much further, that for me and for Minister Tehan, this is a Parliamentary sitting day. Not all of you have Ministers who are parts of your Parliament; some of you have Cabinets which sit separately from your Parliaments – or elected representatives. But for us, it is a case of be there in person to vote or else, as required by one’s leaders. So we will both be departing relatively soon after our speech this morning. Please don’t take that as a lack of interest, if I was choosing I promise you I would be spending a lot more time here than I would in my Parliamentary chamber today.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a very important time for the Australian Department of Defence and also the Royal Australian Air Force. Three weeks ago, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and I released the 2016 Defence White Paper. This document is supported by a fully costed Integrated Investment Program and a Defence Industry Policy Statement. The White Paper sets out the Turnbull Government’s comprehensive and responsible long term plan to ensure Australia’s national security and to create a more capable, agile and potent ADF – the RAAF is at the heart of this plan.

Australia has long seen itself as the ‘lucky country’. Our richness in natural resources, geographic location, our historical and contemporary relationships, and a well educated, innovative and productive population have allowed us to benefit from the shift in global economic power to the Indo-Pacific region. However, as the White Paper makes clear, the parallel shift in strategic power makes for a more complex and demanding strategic environment. This may, in turn, give rise to a broader range of security challenges.

With our international partners, Australia works therefore to foster a rules-based global order. If Australia is to grasp the opportunities available to us and manage the risks, the Turnbull Government recognises that the ADF, including our Air Force, must become more capable, agile and potent. Furthermore we recognise that Australia’s strong network of regional and global Defence relationships will be even more important to us in the future.

So, in the White Paper for the first time we have prioritised and funded Defence’s international engagement as a core Defence function. The RAAF already has – and it will grow – a core role in our international engagement. Through the capability plans in the White Paper, the RAAF’s alibility to project its air power further across the globe will be strengthened.

The importance, for example, of our role in our region and, in this instance, in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief has been underscored by the devastating effects of Cyclone Winston in Fiji. Our RAAF C-17s carrying supplies and Army MRH-90 helicopters were among the earliest international responders to reach the devastated islands. The ADF continues to provide invaluable support to Fiji through operation FIJI ASSIST, with HMAS Canberra currently providing essential support on deployment, while the Army’s 2nd Combat Engineer Regiment is assisting in helping the nation to rebuild its critical infrastructure.

Over the next two decades Air Force will also be equipped with new and more capable platforms to patrol and respond on Australia’s vast maritime approaches. As foreshadowed in the White Paper, I can indicate today that the Government has approved the acquisition of four additional P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance and response aircraft, bringing the total number of P-8As on order to 12. The Government is also considering the acquisition of seven MQ-4C Triton unmanned aircraft systems. These two platforms will replace the ageing AP-3C Orion aircraft, giving Australia a greater maritime intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and response capacity.

The first of the Poseidons is expected to be delivered late this year and 12 aircraft will be in service by 2022. Pending government approval a further three aircraft are planned to enter service late in the 2020s and the Triton is planned to be introduced into service in 2023. While the Orion fleet has performed exceptionally on operations throughout its distinguished service, the last of these aircraft will be almost 40 years old when they retire from service.

Ladies and gentlemen, Air Force is already operating some of the sophisticated platforms that will contribute to the networked joint force the White Paper will deliver. I had the opportunity to fly aboard and see first-hand the impressive capabilities of the Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft and crew, which is currently part of our contribution to the campaign against Daesh in Iraq and Syria.

Australia’s Air Task Group forms the combat element of the Turnbull Government’s contribution to the Coalition efforts targeting Daesh. This Task Group, with its Super Hornets, Hornets, Wedgetail and KC-30 tanker aircraft, is a strong combat capability. In particular, it’s the interoperability of our aircraft, including our KC-30 tanker aircraft and Wedgetail, with our coalition partners that is bringing unique capabilities to the air campaign.

The Chief of the Defence Force, Mark Binskin, has previously remarked on the positive feedback he has received regarding the impressive capability of our Wedgetail aircraft. Our KC-30s and our C-17s are at the centre of our ability for our Air Force to deploy across the globe and to work with our international partners to promote our interests. That capability will be further increased with the acquisition of a further two KC-30s, bringing the total number to seven, further increasing our ability to project our air power and sustain humanitarian, combat, and search and rescue operations.

Over the next decade, the Australian Air Force’s capability will be further strengthened with the introduction into service of the Joint Strike Fighter, the Growler Electronic Attack aircraft and armed unmanned air systems. As the development of the Joint Strike Fighter continues, the pace of testing and evaluation is increasing and I am pleased that another two Australian pilots have recently been relocated to the United States to begin their training. Australia’s JSF aircraft remain on track to arrive in Australia in 2018 with Initial Operational Capability scheduled for 2021.

To maximise the capabilities of our current and future Air Force our systems must be networked and integrated to a degree not previously achieved. Air, land and maritime forces need to exploit the high level of connectivity made possible by use of systems uniting them through the space and cyber domains. Much work has already begun in this regard under Plan Jericho, to which the Chief of Air Force referred, to ensure we have a fully networked joint future force across air, space, electromagnetic and cyber.

With its modernised inventory, Air Force will introduce and develop capabilities that will enhance its ability to work jointly with its sister Forces, in many cases before the systems they will network with enter service with Army and Navy. The work being undertaken by Air Force now in exploring the “art of the possible” and reducing risk through experimentation and trials means that the benefits of a joint force will be more rapidly realised once the networked systems committed to in the White Paper enter Army and Navy service.

As the White Paper details, Defence’s ICT systems have not necessarily kept pace with the rapid advances in technology. To address this, we are making a significant commitment to modernising and transforming Defence’s communications and information systems so that we can take advantage of the changes and improvements in technology.

The Government also acknowledges that the greater our reliance on information systems, the greater the potential risks from cyberattacks. As a result we have also provided for significant investment in cyber capabilities to safeguard government agencies and critical infrastructure against cyberattack.

It is of course not just improved ICT networks and systems and capability that will underpin our future Air Force over the next two decades. One of the defining features of the 2016 Defence White Paper and Integrated Investment Program is the renewed focus on enabling capabilities. In fact, 25 per cent of the Integrated Investment Program is allocated to the enabling projects, which help to bind our capabilities – whether it’s our airfields, our bases, our wharves, our ordnance facilities or our logistics systems, just to name several.

We have upgrades underway at a number of airfields to accommodate some of our new capabilities including RAAF Base Tindal, Williamtown and Darwin. Over the next twenty years in fact, we will spend up to $3 billion in upgrading our airfields across Australia to ensure that our next generation capabilities are properly supported. Without the attention and commitment to deliver these enabling systems, the force multiplying effect of a joint force will not be realised. I know that air forces love their technology, but without the right people, technology can’t, doesn’t become capability.

In Australia, which is a multi-cultural society with a relatively modest population and a vast territory – that vast territory is landmass alone, close in size to that of all of Europe – but with a population less than one third of that of Germany’s. So, to deliver the capabilities of the technologically advanced Future Force outlined in the White Paper, the Government has also committed to grow the uniformed Defence Force to around 62,400 people over the next decade, which will be its largest size in two decades. To attract and sustain this expanded military work force, Defence must recruit and retain its workforce from across that very diverse society; a society in which more than a quarter of all people were born overseas, and over half of which are female.

In relation to women in the Air Force, they currently make up more than 18.5 per cent of Air Force personnel, with Air Force on track to reach its target of 25 per cent female representation by 2023. A number of initiatives are in place to embrace a more inclusive culture within Defence and significant work has been done to remove barriers to the career progression and employment of women, but there are still challenges, still barriers.

Australia has never had a female fighter pilot, although I am pleased to hear that may change very soon, with one female pilot in training right now to become a fast jet pilot. The challenge, though, is to ensure that she’s not the only one, and that there is a steady stream of young women entering these programs of which they’ve not traditionally been part.

We are also addressing the under representation of Indigenous Australians and culturally diverse sections of our society in the ADF. Yesterday I was at ‘the home of the soldier’ – Kapooka, our Army recruiting base – to launch Defence Force Recruiting’s new Indigenous recruitment campaign, which was another important step towards creating an ADF that reflects the community from which it is recruited and which it is entrusted to protect. So that recruiting program – #seeyourself – displays commitment of three of four young Indigenous Australians who’ve been in the ADF for 25 – 8 – 10 years themselves across the three services and asks the viewer to ‘see yourself’ in their jobs, in their roles, and it does it in their own words. It’s a very impactful, very powerful message to young Indigenous Australians that the Australian Defence Force is a great place to be and to come and work.

Ladies and gentlemen, as I’ve mentioned already today, the resources that this workforce will have at its disposal – the aircraft, the vessels, the vehicles, the technology and the information systems will be increasingly sophisticated. The Turnbull Government recognises that a strong, innovative and competitive Australian Defence Force industry is essential.

The Defence Industry Policy Statement, released alongside the White Paper, hasn’t been far from my side over the past three weeks. This document is designed to reset the relationship between industry and Defence; to maximise industry’s innovation potential and to ensure Defence can benefit from, frankly, some amazing capabilities being developed right here in Australia.

One of the key initiatives of the Industry Policy Statement is the Centre for Defence Industry Capability, which the Prime Minister and the Minister for Industry and I announced last week, will be centred in Adelaide. It will have national reach and it will ensure that the defence industry knows what Defence’s capability priorities are and importantly, it will help Defence identify what industry can offer because the Defence-Industry relationship for us is very much a two-way street.

The Joint Strike Fighter program is one area in which we have seen Australian industry compete and access export markets already worth $500 million, which is expected to rise to more than $2 billion by 2022-23. Over the last few months I’ve been lucky enough to visit a number of impressive small-to-medium enterprises that have developed – or are in the process of developing – cutting edge technologies that provide our Australian Defence Force with unique capabilities. The Centre for Defence Industry Capability will help foster the relationship with industry to build its capacity to drive innovation and to open export markets, so that we can find and help develop the next great Australian innovators and I know there are very many of them around this country.

Capability, agility, potency; these are the attributes the Government has invested in enhancing through its balanced approach to the future development of the Australian Defence Force as outlined in the 2016 White Paper. Cutting edge, networked, and integrated technology; an expanded and empowered workforce; and an engaged industrial base are the means of its delivery. And our Air Force is very much at the centre of our high-technology, Future Force.

Air Marshal Davies, I thank you very much for inviting me to address the Air Force’s Air Power Conference. I wish you and all of the participants, presenters and delegates a very productive conference and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.