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During my visit to 2nd Marine Air Wing in June 2014, I had a chance to meet with several of the members of the VMGR-252 squadron.
In this interview, Sgt. Paul Millis, a Crew Chief, and Sgt. Thomas Chevalier, a power train maintainer.
Both have Afghanistan experience, and Millis has Pacific experience as well.
The discussion underscored two important themes with regard to the use of the KC-130J by the USMC.
The first theme is the significant versatility of the aircraft by which it was used across a wide variety of missions in Afghanistan and is a key enabler of the SP-MAGTF.
The second theme, which reinforced the first, was that the close integration of the crew with the maintainers was crucial to the rapid turn around characterized by Afghan operations.
Sgt. Paul Millis, a Crew Chief, and Sgt. Thomas Chevalier, a power train maintainer for the KC-130J. Credit: SLD
Sgt. Millis underscored that in Afghanistan each KC-130J was used in excess of 100 hours per month.
The crews had to perform rapid turn around for missions in which the mission would change 4-5 times during the day and the plane needed to prepared for the new mission.
Rapid taskings were a norm of the Afghan operational tempo.
Among these missions were air refueling, passenger and cargo lift, precision airdrops, battlefield illumination, rapid ground refueling and overhead strike and reconnaissance via the Harvest Hawk.
We were constantly reconfiguring for missions based on the demand.
And the demand for battlefield illumination at night required a rapid preparation of the aircraft for support to the Marines on the ground.
Sgt. Millis highlighted the advantages of having a loadmaster separate from a crew chief, which was a key element enabling rapid tasking requirements. This system is being replaced by a Crew Master system in which the Crew Master is asked to do both tasks.
The KC-130J was used extensively to provide supplies so that IED riddled roads could be avoided and this meant that lives were saved by the KC-130J mission.
Sgt. Millis also highlighted the key role of precision air dropping.
We were able to drop 13-14 bundles into an area the size of a football field and we could prepare this load and deliver it within a five hour turn around period.
Sgt. Chevalier was in Afghanistan as the Harvest Hawk was introduced and this provided a challenge but because of the close integration and working relationship between maintainers and the crew the challenge was met.
He noted that “maintainers on occasion flew with crew so they could see the results of the Harvest Hawk capability. We came back knowing we saved lives and understand that our job served a higher purpose.”
Sgt. Chevalier highlighted that the durability of the KC-130Js really enabled the SP-MAGTF because the Ospreys needed to be supported in order to operate with the reach and range desired.
It is a question of sustainable range and the KC-130Js provided that sustainable part.
The interview with the two young Marines highlighted the importance of the integration of the crew with the aircraft to deliver the results needed in a difficult operational theater such as Afghanistan.
And this teamwork is going forward to support whatever is next for the KC-130J in its enabling role for the MAGTF.
Editor’s Note: The photos in the slideshow are credited to 2nd Marine Air Wing, except for the last one which is credited to 3rd Marine Air Wing.
An MV-22B Osprey with Marine Helicopter Squadron 1 receives fuel from a KC-130J Super Hercules from Marine Aerial Refeuler Transport Squadron 252 over the Atlantic May 28, 2014. The Osprey, along with three others from HMX-1, refueled mid-flight during the squadron’s first trans-Atlantic flight. 6/2/14
The next two photos show a KC-130J Hercules property of Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron (VMGR) 252, refuels an MV-22 Osprey assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 264 and 266 over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of N.C., April 14, 2014. VMGR-252 conducted aerial refueling training with VMM-264 and 266. 04/14/2014
In the fourth photo, A KC-130J Hercules aircraft assigcned to Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252, is staged at Camp Bastion, Helmand province, Afghanistan, Aug. 15, 2013. The aircraft was staged prior to flight.
In the fifth photo, an F/A-18 Hornet, from Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 314, connects to a refueling hose from Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252, June 12. Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252′s mission is to provide transportation of personnel, equipment and supplies, and to provide aerial refueling for fixed and rotary wing aircraft. 6/12/09
In the sixth photo, KC-130J Hercules with Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252 cruises alongside a fellow Hercules from the squadron while conducting flight patterns during aerial refueling training May 22, 2013
In the photos from 7-9, an AV-8B Harrier aircraft receives fuel during an aerial refuel mission over Helmand province, Afghanistan, May 10, 2013. A KC-130J Hercules aircraft was responsible for executing the mission by resupplying other aircraft. 5/10/13
In the tenth image, an illustration shows North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations standard refuel rendezvous procedures for configurations, air speeds and communications when refueling fixed wing aircraft. “We work the aircraft left to right, low to high,” explained Staff Sgt. Paul Folk, crew chief with Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron 252. “The system alleviates people from flying all over the place.” VMGR-252 worked with F/A-18 Hornets from Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, S.C., and AV-8B Harriers from Cherry Point as part of a large-force exercise in the Eastern Carolina skies Jan. 26-27. 1/27/11
In the final photo, the “Harvest Hawk” mission kit uses a AN/AAQ-30 Targeting Sight System (left) and a AGM-114P Hellfire II weapons system (right) mounted on the left wing of a KC-130J. A fire control operator at a fire control station located in the rear of the aircraft monitors these systems. 8/29/09
Background: Sgt Thomas Chevalier is 28 years old and has a six year old son. He is from South Carolina and has been in the Marine Corps for five years. He has done multiple deployments including Afghanistan – 2011, 26th MEU-2013, SP-MAGTF CR- 2013, and multiple WTIs and DFTs. He is a Collateral Duty Quality Assurance Representative and was a representative for VMGR-252 with VMGR-234 for their first KC-130J transition from the Legacy model.
Last Fall we had the chance to meet with pilots and maintainers at Eglin Air Force Base along with Secretary Michael Wynne.
In addition to talking with Lt. Col. “Chip” Berke about his F-22 and F-35 experiences, we had a chance to talk with the Commanding Officer for VMF-121, Lt. Col. Gillette prior to the squadron’s departure for Yuma Marine Corps Air Station.
Lt. Col. Gillette Credit: SLD
Lt. Col. Gillette highlighted the path to integrating the F-35B into USMC operations.
Much like the unfolding of the Osprey has significantly impacted on Marine Corps thinking about the future of air assault and related missions, the roll out of the F-35B will reshape overall USMC thinking about MAGTF operations.
The airplane we will take to Japan will be an extremely capable airplane, but it’s not the end state of the airplane.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the F-35B will be more efficient and more effective than what we have know in doing the spectrum of missions which the MAGTF is configured to perform.
And the first F-35B squadron is an opening of a new era.
It is not just a new airplane; it is the beginning of a new way to integrate aircraft into USMC and joint operations.
In our DNA as Marine Corps aviators, we serve the MEU or the MAGTF commander
We had a chance to discuss the work of the squadron and to get an update with the Executive Officer of the Green Knights, Major Gregory Summa during our visit to Yuma Marine Corps Air Station in mid-July 2014.
The aviators and maintainers of this storied squadron are working to bring to the first F-35B Squadron into service next year.
Green Knights Insignia in the Hanger. Credit: SLD
Historically it is interesting to note that VMF-121 was activated in June 1941 and began flying air ground combat missions in August 1942, with the “Cactus Air Force” on Guadalcanal.
The Green Knights made Marine aviation history with fourteen aces, including the legendary Joe Foss CMH so IOC means just that, ready for combat.
(For some squadron history, see the material at the conclusion of the article).
Question: How would you describe the current role of the squadron?
Major Summa:
The Marines focus on a process of giving the airplane to the operators and let the operators figure out how best to operate and then use the aircraft.
Our leadership has prepared the way for the coming of the F-35 to the USMC and has worked hard to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to allow us to train and use the aircraft.
For example, when Lt. General Trautman was Deputy Commandant of Aviation he focused on preparing Yuma to be the home for the first F-35 squadron.
Clearly, being here with MAWTS-1 gives us a good advantage to get a good start on operating, training and shaping the tactics of the new aircraft for the MAGTF.
After creating the infrastructure, the next step was to get the airplane in the hands of Marines to work with the aircraft and to work with the aircraft within the limits of what it is cleared to do, because we do not have clearance for the full flight envelope we will have by the time the aircraft attains Initial Operational Capability.
Question: Putting the plane in the hands of the operators is a key part of developing the aircraft as well isn’t it?
Major Summa:
It is. Every time we fly, we are learning something.
While trained Test Pilots are operating instrumented aircraft on a detailed test plan, in Yuma you have operational pilots flying the jet everyday gaining data points that may not have been discovered by Developmental Test.
By data points I do not mean safety of flight related items, I am referring to operational data points.
More along the lines of how to optimize and use the multiple sensors to accomplish a task or execute a mission set.
Since we have such a good working relationship with the Developmental Test entities, the Joint Operational Test community, and the individuals from industry who are SMEs on the systems, we can get immediate feedback when questions arise and then promulgate that back out to the community.
For example, last week we spent several hours in the vault with pilot training officers and with pilots who have been either MAWTS or Top Gun graduates or instructors.
A squadron F-35B seen at Yuma on July 16, 2014. Squadron planes scheduled for Farnbourgh were in flight back from Pax River that afternoon. Credit Photo: Second Line of Defense
We compared our operational experience with what has been developed so far with regard to our joint tactics manual which was written more than year ago, based on expectations developed from flying in the simulator.
Now we are seeing things in the operational airplane.
So how do we change?
How do we improve, update and morph the manual to where we see the plane operationally performing?
Where do we think we are going with the next drop of software in the plane?
Question: How do you externalize your learning outside of the squadron?
Major Summa:
One way is working with the USAF at the 422 Test and Evaluation squadron at Nellis.
We tend to busy here, so we send operators from the training department or former patch wearers (MAWTS-1 and TOPGUN) to work with SMEs from the Navy and USAF at conferences or simulator events.
The young senior company grade who are coming off of a tour with a Hornet or a Harrier and now wearing a Green Knights patch go into the room with the aviators at Nellis with F-16 and F-15 pilots and work through the process.
In effect, an F-35 enterprise is emerging built around a group of individuals in the profession of arms who want to make this airplane as lethal as possible.
People come in from different backgrounds – Raptor, Eagle, Viper, Hornet or Harrier – and are focusing on the common airplane and ways to make it work more effectively in a tactical setting.
And talking to the experience of a common plane is a crucial piece of the effort.
When an F-35 pilot sits down regardless of what service he is in, he’s talking with an individual from another service on the same data point.
Let me explain what I mean.
Major Summa discussing the Squadron’s experiences to date. Credit: SLD
If I sat down as an F-18 pilot, and I wanted to talk about AMRAAM performance, I was talking about it relative to how it integrated with an F-18.
The F-18 is a Boeing product, a McDonald Douglas product, totally different than F-16, which is a Lockheed product.
When I talk AMRAAM with an F-35 pilot from the Air Force, maybe one of the squadrons at Luke.
I am talking about the same exact radar, I’m talking about the same exact software — everything’s the same.
If we differ in training, it doesn’t have to do with hardware, it doesn’t have to do with software; it has to do with service approaches or carry-over from previous doctrinal employment.
When an F-35A pilot talks with an F-35B pilot and they discuss what they would to see with the evolution of the aircraft they are discussing essentially the same airplane and its evolution.
It is two operators of the same airplane focused on what they want to see evolve even though they are in different services.
And the commonality point is really lost in the broader discussion of the F-35.
And when it comes to strategic impact it is the commonality associated with logistics, which will have a really significant operational impact.
The interoperability at the supply level, the logistics level, the procurement level or the maintenance training level is a key foundation for joint and coalition airpower going forward leveraging the F-35.
(Note the 422 USAF squadron has 2 F-16, 1 F-15E, 1 F-15C and 2 A-10 pilots flying the F-35A. This Fall they will get a USMC FA-18 pilot (former MAWTS Instructor) to serve on the staff.)
Question: Let us focus on the squadron and its composition and work schedule, so to speak. What is the current situation?
Major Summa:
We have 16 airplanes in the squadron. We have 15 pilots who have gone through VMFAT-501 at Eglin.
Nine of those pilots have gone through S/TOVL training and are qualified completely to operate the plane that way.
The others will complete the syllabus shortly.
Question: Are these primarily Hornet or Harrier pilots?
VFMA-121 F-35. Credit: SLD
Major Summa:
We only have F-35 pilots. Our flight temp is Tuesday through Friday.
We have the only organic maintenance department in DOD.
When I say organic I means that we do not have contractors fixing our airplanes, we have Marines fixing our airplanes.
We have the normal technical representative support from contractors as one would expect with an organic squadron.
We are 260 strong in the squadron and we run two shifts, six five days and six five nights a week. Our pilots fly around 15 hours per month.
Question: When you fly the plane how do you balance the air-to-air and close air support missions?
Major Summa:
That is a good question.
The plane and its combat systems and the way the cockpit is designed allows the pilot to handle the missions in a very effective an integrated manner.
To be able to do CAS, you have to make certain that you can suppress threats that would make it prohibited.
With this plane, you can affect the environment to make CAS more readily available and more quickly.
Question: The F-35 is a multi-tasking aircraft and as such how do you approach doing air-to-air and air-to-ground missions?
Major Summa:
You can flip between the two without ever forgetting where you were on the last one.
And let me explain that a little bit better. In the F-18, when we were going to air-to-ground mode specifically on the strike, and we are using the radar, and if we want to the targeting pod, we would get to a certain point in time in the mission, where we have to use some sort of a planning tool.
The pilot would have to sort out when he would be able to go all heads down to try to find the target and employ on the target.
And I need to have a certain amount of distance between me and a threat so that when I come heads back up and start looking for possibly an air breathing threat or a surface-to-air missile, would need to suspend the task of employing that piece of ordinance or that weapon for the CAS mission.
This airplane’s different because with the data being fused, I’m not using multiple different displays with each.
The main difference that I see between federated and fused systems is in the F-18, not only was it all in different displays, but each sensor had its own uncertainty volumes and algorithms associated with it.
Visiting the VMFA-121. Credit: SLD
It was up to me as an aviator knowing the capabilities and limitations in my system to decipher and draw the line between the mission sets.
In the F-35, the fusion engine does a lot of that in the background, while simultaneously, I can be executing an air-to-air mission or an air-to-ground mission, and have an air-to-air track file up, or multiple air-to-air track files, and determine how to flip missions.
Because the fidelity of the data is there right now, which allows me to determine if I need to go back into an air-to-air mindset because I have to deal with this right now as opposed to continuing the CAS mission.
And I have a much broader set of integrated tool sets to draw upon.
For example, if I need an electronic warfare tool set, with the F-18 I have to call in a separate aircraft to provide for that capability.
With the F-35 I have organic EW capability. The EW capability works well in the aircraft. From the time it is recognized that such a capability is need to the time that it is used requires a push of a button.
It does not require that a supporting asset be deployed.
Question: Obviously your pilots need to be trained to combine the air-to-air and CAS capabilities and to use the new organic tools sets as well?
Major Summa:
It does.
Now we’re going to have a pilot that’s versed in doing CAS, if he needs to use the electromagnetic spectrum or exploit it to accomplish his mission, he’ll be educated and have the equipment to do so.
If he needs to use it in the air-to-air arena to exploit it, to accomplish his mission, he’ll have the training and the equipment needed to use it as well.
In the current situation, I would deploy a Prowler to work with my legacy fighters.
The Prowler would have to be sortied and would operate only for a period of time and in a specific operational area.
With the low observability of the F-35 combined with the organic EW capability of the aircraft, the aircraft expands my capabilities for both air-to-air and CAS.
Major Summa graduated from the United States Naval Academy in May 1998 with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Ocean Engineering. Following graduation he was commissioned a Second Lieutenant and reported to The Basic School in August 1998. Upon completion of The Basic School, Major Summa reported to NAS Pensacola, FL, and was assigned to the VT-2 Doerbirds for Primary flight training in the T-34C. Following Primary, Major Summa reported to NAS Meridian for intermediate and advanced jet training in the T-2C and T-45C. Major Summa was designated a Naval Aviator in August 2001 and was assigned to VFA-106 at NAS Oceana to begin training at the F/A-18 Fleet Replacement Squadron.
Major Summa in front of the Squadron building. Credit: SLD
In February 2003 Major Summa reported to MCAS Beaufort and was assigned to VMFA(AW)-332, the Moonlighters. While assigned to VMFA(AW)-332 he served as the ALSS division officer, Airframes division officer, Quality Assurance division officer, and Assistant Operations Officer. During his time with the Moonlighters, Major Summa deployed to Iwakuni, Japan as part of the Unit Deployment Program and to Al Asad, Iraq in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Upon return from Iraq, Major Summa attended the Weapons and Tactics Instructor (WTI) Course 1-07 in September 2006. Following completion of the WTI Course, Major Summa served as the Pilot Training Officer for VMFA(AW)-332 and subsequently as the MAG-31 WTI. In July 2007 Major Summa attended the Navy Fighter Weapons School (TOPGUN) and completed the Strike-Fighter Tactics Instructor (SFTI) Course.
In November 2007 Major Summa reported to instruct at Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One (MAWTS-1) located at MCAS Yuma. During his tour at MAWTS-1 he worked in the F/A-18 division as the scheduling and standardization officer and in the Aviation Development of Tactics and Evaluation department as the Anti-Air Warfare specialist. While at MAWTS-1, Major Summa served as the OAS-4 evolution coordinator and the subject matter expert in air-to-air employment, air-to-ground employment, and strike mission planning. During this time he provided fleet support in Afghanistan, Japan, and throughout the United States. Major Summa also instructed in multiple WTI Courses, Desert Talon exercises, and Marine Division Tactics Courses during his tour at MAWTS-1.
In June 2011 Major Summa reported to the Naval War College in Newport Rhode Island where he earned a Master of Arts degree in Military Studies.
Major Summa’s qualifications include: Mission Commander, WTI, SFTI, ACT(I), LAT(I), WTI-NS(I), FAC(A)I, and FCF pilot. His awards include two Navy Achievement Medals, six Air Medals, two Navy Meritorious Unit Commendation Medals, two Iraqi Campaign Medals, and a Global War on Terrorism Service Medal.
Since our interview, Major Summa has been promoted to Lt. Col. (designate) and has been picked to command VMFAT-501 in Beaufort as his next assignment.
Editor’s Note: When you visit the squadron, in the main building there is a Joseph Foss room.
Looking at the history of the squadron and Joe Foss’s role in that history, one can understand the heritage being built into the new combat capability represented by the F-35 B for the 21st Century USMC.
Tradition clearly matters.
Joseph Foss, C.O. VMF-121, Medal of Honor Recipient
Joe Foss was born on April 17, 1915 to a Norwegian-Scots family in South Dakota. He learned hunting and marksmanship at a young age. Like millions of others, 11-year old Joe Foss was inspired by Charles Lindbergh, especially after he saw Lindy at an airport near Sioux Falls.
Five years later he watched a Marine squadron put on a dazzling exhibition, led by Capt. Clayton Jerome, future wartime Director of Marine Corps Aviation.
In 1934, Joe began his college education in Sioux Falls, but he had to drop out to help his mother run the family farm. However he scraped up $65 for private flying lessons. Five years later he entered the University of South Dakota again and supported himself by waiting on tables. In his senior year he also completed a civilian pilot training program before he graduated with a Business degree in 1940.
Upon graduation he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps reserves as an aviation cadet. Seven months later, he earned his Marine wings at Pensacola and was commissioned a second lieutenant. For the next nine months he was a ‘plowback’ flight instructor. He was at Pensacola when the news of Pearl Harbor broke, and since he was Officer of the Day, he was placed in charge of base security. Thus he prepared to defend Pensacola from Jap invaders, riding around the perimeter on a bicycle.
To his distress, he was then ordered to the aerial photographers school and assigned to a VMO-1, a photo reconnaissance squadron.
But he insisted he wanted fighter pilot duty, even after being told “You’re too ancient, Joe. You’re 27 years old!” After lengthy lobbying with Aircraft Carrier Training Group, he learned all about the new F4F Wildcat, logging over 150 flight hours in June and July.
When he finished training, he became executive officer of VMF-121.
Three weeks later, he was on his way to the South Pacific, where the United States was desperately trying to turn the tide of war. Arriving in the South Pacific, VMF-121 was loaded aboard the escort carrier Copahee.
Guadalcanal
On the morning of October 9, they were catapulted off the decks, in Joe’s only combat carrier mission. Landing at Henderson Field, he was told that his fighters were now based at the ‘cow pasture.’
He was impressed with the ‘make-do’ character of the ‘Cactus Air Force. The airfield was riddled with bomb craters and wrecked aircraft, but also featured three batteries of 90mm anti-aircraft guns and two radar stations. As ‘exec’ of -121, he would normally lead a flight of two four-plane divisions, whenever there were enough Wildcats to go around.
He was the oldest pilot in the flight, four years older than the average age of 23. The flight would become known as ‘Foss’s Flying Circus’ and rack up over 60 victories. Five of them would become aces; two would die in the in the fight for Guadalcanal.
On October 13, 1942, VMF-121 scored its first victories when Lts. Freeman and Narr each got a Japanese plane. Later that same day, Joe led a dozen Wildcats to intercept 32 enemy bombers and fighters. In his first combat, a Zero bounced Joe, but overshot, and Joe was able to fire a good burst and claim one destroyed aircraft.
Instantly, three more Zeros set upon him, and he barely made it back to ‘Fighter One’, his Wildcat dripping oil. Chastened by the experience, he declared “You can call me ‘Swivel-Neck Joe’ from now on.” From the first day, Joe followed the tactics of Joe Bauer: getting in close, so close that another pilot joked that the ‘exec’ left powder burns on his targets. The next day while intercepting a flight of enemy bombers, Joe’s engine acted up and he took cover in the clouds. But suddenly a Wildcat whizzed past him, tailed by a Zero. Joe cut loose and shot the Zero’s wing off. It was his second victory in two days.
While the Wildcats’ primary responsibility was air defense, they also strafed Japanese infantry and ships when they had enough ammunition. Joe led on such mission on the 16th. Mid-October was the low point for the Americans in the struggle for Guadalcanal.
Japanese warships shelled the U.S. positions nightly, with special attention to the airstrips. To avoid the shelling, some fliers slept in the front lines. Foss grew to appreciate the Navy’s fighter doctrine and found that the “Thach Weave” effectively countered the Zero’s superior performance, because “it allowed us to point eyes and guns in every direction.”
Joe was leading an interception on morning of the 18th when the Zero top cover pounced on them and downed an F4F. But Foss was able to get above them and flamed the nearest, hit another, and briefly engaged a third. Gaining an angle, he finally shot up the third plane’s engine.
Marine Corps F4F Wildcat at Guadalcanal, marked with 19 Japanese flags.
Next he found a group of Bettys already under attack by VF-71. He executed a firing pass from above, flashed through the enemy bombers, and pulled up sharply, blasting one from below. Nine days at Guadalcanal and he was an ace! Two days later Lt. Col. Harold Bauer and Foss led a flight of Wildcats on the morning intercept. In the dogfighting, Joe downed two Zeros, but took a hit in his engine. He landed safely at Henderson Field with a bad cut on his head, but otherwise unharmed.
‘Cactus Fighter Command’ struggled to keep enough Wildcats airworthy to meet the daily Japanese air strikes. On the 23rd, it put up two flights, led by Foss and Maj. Davis. There were plenty of targets and Joe soon exploded a Zero. He went after another which tried to twist away in a looping maneuver. Joe followed and opened up while inverted at the top of his loop. He caught the Zero and flamed it. He later described it as a lucky shot.
Next he spotted a Japanese pilot doing a slow roll; he fired as the Zero’s wings rolled through the vertical and saw the enemy pilot blown out of the cockpit, minus a parachute. Suddenly he was all alone and two Zeros hit him, but his rugged Grumman absorbed the damage, permitting Foss to flame one of his assailants.
Once again, he nursed a damaged fighter back to Guadalalcanal. So far he had destroyed eleven enemy planes, but had brought back four Wildcats that were too damaged to fly again.
October 25 was the day that the Japanese planned to occupy Henderson Field; they sent their fighters over, with orders to circle until the airstrip was theirs. It didn’t work out that way, as the U.S. ground forces held their lines and ‘Cactus’ did its part. Joe Foss led six Wildcats up before 10 AM, and claimed two of the Marine’s three kills on that sortie.
Afterwards, he berated himself for wasting ammunition on long-range shooting. He kept learning how important it was to get close. (The great German ace, Erich Hartmann, said “Get close enough until the airplane fills the whole windscreen; then you can’t miss.”) In an afternoon mission on the 25th, he downed three more, to become the Marine Corps’ first ‘ace in a day’. He had achieved 14 victories in only 13 days.
Despite rugged living conditions and the stress of daily combat flying, Foss retained his enthusiasm. He and some other fliers of VMF-121 occasionally went prowling with their rifles in the jungle, looking for Japanese soldiers, but Col. Bauer stopped this activity; trained fighter pilots were too valuable to risk this way.
They slept in six-man tents and ate the wretched powdered eggs that are mentioned in almost every pilot’s memoirs. On guy had a gramophone that they played scratchy records on. They bathed in the Lunga River; many grew beards rather than try to shave in cold water. They kept the beards neatly trimmed, not for appearances, but to ensure their beards didn’t interfere with the close-fitting oxygen masks. ‘Washing Machine Charlie’ and ‘Millimeter Mike’ harassed the field nightly, so some pilots tried to sleep in the daytime.
Down!
On November 7th Foss led seven F4Fs up the Slot to attack some IJN destroyers and a cruiser, covered by six Rufe floatplane fighters. They dispatched five of the Rufes promptly and prepared to strafe the destroyers. Joe climbed up to protect the others and got involved in a dogfight with a Pete, a two-man float biplane. He shot down the slow-flying plane, but not before its rear gunner perforated the Wildcat’s engine with 7.7mm machine gun fire.
Once again, Foss’ aircraft started sputtering on the way home. But his time, it didn’t make it. As the engine died, he put it into the longest possible shallow dive, to get as close to home as he could.
As his plane went into the water off Malaita Island, Foss struggled with his parachute harness and his seat. He went under with his plane, gulped salt water, and almost drowned before he freed himself and inflated his Mae West. Exhausted and with the tide against him, he knew that he couldn’t swim to shore. While trying to rest and re-gain his strength in his life raft, he spotted shark fins nearby. He sprinkled the chlorine powder supplied for that purpose in his emergency pack and that seemed to help.
As darkness approached, he heard some searchers looking for him. They hauled him in and brought him to Malaita’s Catholic mission. There were a number of Europeans and Australians, including two nuns who had been there for forty years and had never seen an automobile. They fed him steak and eggs and invited him stay for two weeks.
The next day a PBY Catalina, piloted by Maj. Jack Cram rescued him. On his return to Guadalcanal, he learned that ‘Cactus’ had downed 15 Japanese planes in the previous day’s air battle. His own tally stood at 19. On the ninth, Admiral Bull Halsey pinned the Distinguished Flying Cross on him and two other pilots.
The Americans were bringing four transports full of infantry to Guadalcanal on November 12. The Japanese sent 16 Betty bombers and 30 covering Zeroes after them, while the American Wildcats and Airacobras defended.
Foss and his Wildcats were flying top cover CAP and dived headlong into the attackers, right down onto the deck. As Barrett Tillman described it in Wildcat Aces of WWII: Ignoring the peril, Foss hauled into within 100 yards of the nearest bomber and aimed at the starboard engine, which spouted flame. The G4M tried a water landing, caught a wingtip and tumbled into oblivion. Foss set his sight on another Betty when a Zero intervened. The F4F nosed up briefly and fired a beautifully aimed snapshot which sent the A6M spearing into the water. He then resumed the chase.
Joe Foss
Foss caught up with the next Betty in line and made a deflection shot into its wingroot; the bomber flamed up and then set down in the water. The massive dogfight continued, until Joe ran out of fuel and ammunition.
Between the fighters and the AA, the Americans destroyed almost all the bombers and many of the Zeros. No U.S. ships were seriously damaged. But that night another naval surface battle raged in Ironbottom Sound. Warships on both sides were sunk or damaged, including the IJN battleship Hiei which Marine bombers and torpedo planes finished off on the 13th. The major Japanese effort continued on the 14th, as they brought in a seven ship troop convoy. The American air forces cut this up as well.
Late that afternoon, Col. Bauer, tired of being stuck on the ground at Fighter Command, went up with Joe to take a look. It was his last flight, described by Joe Foss in a letter to Bauer’s family. No trace of ‘Indian Joe’ was ever found. Back at Guadalcanal, Foss was diagnosed with malaria. Two great leaders of Cactus Fighter Command were gone, although Foss would return in six weeks.
He recuperated in New Caledonia and Australia. He met some of the high-scoring Australian aces, who viewed the Japanese as inferior opponents and were a little dismissive of Joe’s 23 victories. After a brief relapse of malaria, Joe returned to Guadalcanal on New Year’s Day. Improvements had been made in his absence, notably pierced steel planking (PSP) for the Fighter Strip. Foss returned to combat flying on the 15th when he shot down three more planes to bring his total to 26.
He flew his last mission ten days later when his flight and four P-38s intercepted a force of over 60 Zeros and Vals. Quickly analyzing the situation, he ordered his flight to stay high, circling in a Lufbery. This made his small flight look like a decoy to the Japanese. Soon Cactus scrambled more fighters and the Japanese planes fled. It was ironic that in one of Joe Foss’ most satisfying missions, he didn’t fire a shot.
But more broadly, there is the defense challenge, which is a Danish, NATO, and a US challenge.
Greenlanders live in the more temperate coastal areas; the rest of its two million sq km are covered in ice.
Although no Danish combat aircraft are usually based in Greenland, the Flyvevåbnet’s F-16 fighters have, in the past flown non-stop from a base in Greenland (Søndre Strømfjord) to Ålborg, their home base in Denmark. Obviously, if ever required to back up Danish claims, the F-16s – or armed helicopters – could reinforce Greenland.
The US has had a presence in Greenland and took primary responsibility for the defense of Greenland throughout the Cold War. Yet the uncertainties of US policy, more generally and in the Arctic, as well as the dynamics of the Danish-Greenland relationship create an open-ended problem of how the security and defense of Greenland will be conducted in the period of the Arctic opening.
In an excellent overview to the challenge for the development and defense of Greenland, Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, the head of the Centre for Military Studies, provided a way to conceptualize the problem.
The problem really is about the development of Greenland, the role of the local government in that development, the relationship between Denmark and Greenland in combining greater autonomy for Greenland while providing for defense and security and what role the US will have in the overall process.
In other words, the challenge will be to sort out in PRACTICAL terms how Greenland will be defended in the presence of greater outside powers influence through the mining companies, the dynamics of change between Denmark and Greenland, and the uncertainty about US policies and capabilities for Greenland defense and Arctic operations.
As part of the evolving defense effort, Greenland has worked with the Danish Air Force in leveraging Danish F-16s.
In connection with the Defense future tasks in the Arctic g F-16s will be flying on the west coast this week. The flight is part of the activities in connection with the ongoing analysis concerning the strengthening of the Danish Defense’s role in the Arctic.
An analysis has been initiated by the Danish Government and Greenland.
The overall purpose of the flight is to test F-16s as a sensor platform during a search and rescue operation (SAR) in Greenland, whereby the aircraft can quickly create a surveillance picture in the operation area, and forward this to the Arctic Command in Nuuk.
The flight has two underlying goals, to practice surveillance and image building on the West Coast as part of a SAR operation, and to test the logistical aspects of Kangerlussuaq and Thule. The flight will take place from Tuesday – Thursday with a day as buffer.
The flight is part of a series of trials and tests during 2014 and 2015 will be implemented as part of the large Arctic analysis, which includes a number of upcoming activities at sea and on land in and around Greenland.
For a look at how fighters can contribute to Artic defense see the following:
On July 24, 2014, the first two Australian F-35s were on display and an official ceremony held to mark the event.
Two visitors to the event highlighted its importance and provided context.
The first was Frank Kendall, U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics, and the second was the RAAF Chief of Staff Air Marshall Geoff Brown.
Kendall has been focusing on the core role of partners in the program, and has done so recently in Italy at the Italian FACO facility and at the Australian event held in Fort Worth.
Frank Kendall greeted by Italian Air Force COS Preziosa. Credit: Italian Ministry of Defense
Earlier, on July 18th, Kendall met with the Italian Chief of Staff of the Air Force and with the Italian Armaments Director at the Italian Cameri facility, where F-35s are being assembled, wings manufactured, and a future sustainment facility evolving.
The Italian sustainment center might be joined at some point in the future with an Australian version of the same, although it is in Japan that an Asian FACO is being built, but with Asian sustainment centers along with European sustainment centers, the integrated airpower built around the F-35 as a global enterprise can emerge and evolve.
On the occasion of the roll out of the Australian F-35s, Kendall noted that:
Today, we celebrate a milestone in the U.S.-Australia partnership, a partnership built on strength, friendship, and technological innovation.
We join Australia, as one of our original partners, to celebrate this roll out and the numerous Australian contributions to the Joint Strike Fighter program.
For both our nations, this program represents an exponential leap in capability on the cutting edge of technology — and an integral component of our ongoing joint commitment to stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific.
And in a press release, Lockheed Martin focused on the two Australian aircraft which were the centerpiece for the event:
The aircraft, known as AU-1 and AU-2, are scheduled to undergo functional fuel system checks before being transported to the flight line for ground and flight tests in the coming months.
The jets are scheduled to be delivered to the Royal Australian Air Force later this year, and will be based at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, where they will be used for Australian and partner country pilot training.
Earlier this year, I attended a seminar held by the Williams Foundation in Canberra, Australia where the focus was upon the future of air combat, with a special focus upon the F-35.
In his presentation to The Williams Foundation seminar on air combat in 2025 and beyond, the Chief of Staff or the RAAF focused on the F-35. He highlighted the centrality of the decision superiority inherent in the systems of the aircraft. But underscored that training and effective concepts of operations were necessary to achieve a latent advantage.Credit Photo: Second Line of Defense
At that event, two F-22 pilots, one of whom is as well an F-35 pilot, provided insights into the break from traditional capabilities to fifth generation re-norming of airpower.
One was Australian and one was a Marine. A second speaker from the USMC discussed how the Marines were looking to integrate the F-35 into the overall evolution of the integrated force structure of the Marine Corps known as the MAGTF.
Air Marshall Brown spoke at that event and highlighted how he saw the evolving airpower transition associated with the F-35. At that event, Brown underscored that a shift from 4th to 5th generation fighters was not simply a transition in technologies but a “generational shift for everybody involved.” And clearly a key reason to acquire the F-35 is to get on the right side of generational change.
History tells us some things with relative certainty about air combat operations in 2025 and beyond. Importantly, it tells us that technologies will have evolved markedly by 2025, making it essential to acquire capabilities with future growth. 5th generation capabilities, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, offer a quantum leap in air power capabilities over their compatriots,
The missions they will undertake may not be new, but the capabilities 5th generations fighters bring will vastly change the character and effectiveness of how the missions are undertaken.
In his remarks in Fort Worth, marking the roll out of the first two Aussie F-35s, Brown focused on the way ahead, and how procuring the F-35 was simply the start of the effort; the real work rests in leveraging the impact of the new air combat capability throughout the Aussie force and in working with coalition partners.
“For me, the most impressive thing about the aircraft is what it brings to the fight in terms of situational awareness and decision dominance…not just for the pilot sitting in the F-35 but fro the entire Joint and Combined air, land and maritime forces deployed in and around the area of operations.”
Clearly, Brown focused upon the trigger and multiplier effect of the F-35 on the overall transformation of the Australian combat force.
ir Marshall Brown speaking at the Fort Worth based event July 24, 2014. Credit Photo; Lockheed Martin
“The F-35 will be a catalyst for evolution and in some areas revolution for both the Royal Australian Air Force and for the Australian Defence Force.”
But this will not happen simply by buying the aircraft. It will require a culture change and significant training in shaping an innovative path built by combat experience, and cross-learning with allies.
“Transitioning to a fifth generation fighter will challenge us to step outside our comfort zones and question past habits. The RAAF will partner and work closely not only with our sister services – the Royal Australian Navy and the Australian Army – but also with the USAF, USN, and USMC to learn, leverage and exploit those intrinsic 5th generation opportunities.”
Lest someone miss the point about the cultural shift and the rupture, which the F-35 fleet can provide, Brown went on to pound home the point.
We are introducing into service a revolutionary capability and our evolution as a force must align with the opportunity this offers us. The F-35 does not replace anything.
If I looked at the F-35 as a replacement for the Hornet or the Super Hornet in Australian service, I would undermine from day one the real capability of this aircraft.
Like any revolutionary capability, its potential to generate effects beyond the mainstream will have far reaching impacts in any future application.
I view the F-35 as a platform that can operate across the spectrum from tactical to strategic or anywhere in between as required. It will be the key node in enabling our new fluid force concepts.”
And in recognition that leaders like Secretary Hagel and Frank Kendall are working hard to deal with the Greek Chorus of F-35 commentators:
Tech. Sgt. Michael McClure, 33rd Aircraft Maintenance Squadron, briefs Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on the cockpit of the F-35A Lightning II July 10 at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla. Hagel visited the base to tour the 33rd Fighter Wing and F-35 Lightning II integrated training center. He held a 45-minute troop call to praise the work of the service members who began and continue to improve the DOD’s newest fighter program. (U.S. Air Force photo/Linda Phillips)
“I thank the leaders of the US Department of Defence, and their equivalents in the Partner nations for their superb efforts over many years, and their fortitude and vision to see through the difficult birth of the F-35 which will provide a key pillar for Australian defence and security over the coming decades.”
Brown was very clear in his remarks both in Canberra and Fort Worth, but what can be missed is another revolutionary aspect of the F-35 as a global fleet.
What is envisaged is not an interdependent air combat system, but an integrated air combat system.
And if commonality is maintained – and commonality for the core combat systems is currently the reality — then the data and communications links provide an integrated combat force of F-35 pilots spearheading defense operations.
It also means that a rainbow fleet can be deployed where F-35 partners can work together where there is the need or the political will.
For example, both the Netherlands and Australia see the need to involve assets in the current post-Malaysian Ukrainian situation to secure the crash site. With the F-35 future fleet, Australia could send a four ship F-35 force to marry up with the Dutch and be supported by a Dutch maintenance capability supplemented by Aussie maintainers. Rainbow fleets will provide an important political tool matching a variety of anticipatable settings for 21st century operations.
As we argued earlier about the potential for the F-35 in a future setting such as Ukraine:
The multi-mission capabilities of the aircraft means that a small footprint can bring diversified lethality to the fight. An F-35 squadron can carry inherent within it an electronic attack force, a missile defense tracking capability, a mapping capability for the ground forces, ISR and C2 capabilities for the deployed force and do so in a compact deployment package.
In addition, an F-35 fleet can empower Air Defense Artillery (ADA), whether Aegis afloat or Patriots and THAAD Batteries, the concept of establishing air dominance is moving in a synergistic direction. An F-35 EW capability along with it’s AA and AG capability will introduce innovate tactics in the SEAD mission. Concurrently, the F-35 will empower U.S. and Allied ADA situational awareness. The current engagement of the IDF employment of their Irion Dome in conjunction with aviation attacks is a demonstration of this type of emerging partnership being forged in battle.
To get a similar capability today into the Area of Interest would require a diversified and complex aerial fleet, whose very size would create a political statement, which one might really not want to make.
With an F-35 enabled ground insertion force, a smaller force with significant lethality and flexibility could be deployed until it is no longer needed for it is about air-enabled ground forces. A tiltrotar enabled assault force with top cover from a 360 degree operational F-35 fleet, whether USMC, USN, USAF or allied can allow for the kind of flexibility necessary for 21st century warfare and operational realities.
What is happening at Cameri, at Fort Worth and in Australia can shape the future of integrated coalition operations.
For our Special Reports focused on Australia and Italy see the following:
2014-08-04 According to a Eurofighter press release, and dated August 4, 2014, the first phase of tests for the integration of the Storm Shadow long-range missile onto the Eurofighter Typhoon has been completed.
Storm Shadow is a long range, all-weather, high precision, stand-off weapon already in service on Royal Air Force Tornados.
It has been proven in operations to great effect in Iraq and Libya neutralizing hardened command bunkers and other high value targets.
The stealthy weapon design allows it to penetrate layered air defenses whilst the long range of Storm Shadow allows it to be launched outside those defenses increasing the launch aircraft survivability.
In the deep attack role Eurofighter Typhoon will carry two Storm Shadow missiles whilst maintaining the ability to carry 8 air-air missiles. This will enable Eurofighter Typhoon to fight its way in and out of the combat area….
The tests have already covered a number of aspects of aeromechanical missile integration onto the aircaft and further flight trials are planned as the program moves through to full integration.
The next step in the program will be ‘inert drop-tests’ followed by environmental data gathering tests.
Avionic flights will then be performed to test functional integration including dedicated missile release tests.
Alberto Gutierrez, Chief Executive Officer of Eurofighter, said: “After these flight tests and after the completion of the qualification process Storm Shadow will enter into the list of available payloads.
This will see the realization of a further consolidation of the Eurofighter Typhoon’s air-to-ground capabilities. It is another significant step on the capability enhancement routemap.”
At the Farnborough International Air Show earlier this month, Eurofighter confirmed that NETMA, the NATO Eurofighter and Tornado Management Agency, had officially placed an order with it to integrate the Storm Shadow long range attack missile onto the aircraft.
Under the terms of what is known as a ‘Contract 4’ order from NETMA, Eurofighter will work with the three Eurofighter Partner Companies (Alenia Aermacchi, Airbus Space & Defence, and BAE Systems) and their supply base – including MBDA, the makers of the Storm Shadow missile on the integration program.
Far from the PR fighting fields of Farnbourgh, the USMC is preparing for a significant upsurge in the combat capability of the Navy Marine air/Ground expeditionary force.
The first Squadron destined for initial operational capability (IOC) of the F-35B, are the “Green Knights” of VMFA-121 at MCAS Yuma.
The aviators and maintainers of this storied squadron are working to bring to the first F-35B Squadron into service next year.
Historically it is interesting to note that VMF-121 was activated in June 1941 and began flying air ground combat missions in August 1942, with the “Cactus Air Force” on Guadalcanal.
The Green Knights made Marine aviation history with fourteen aces, including the legendary Joe Foss CMH so IOC means just that, ready for combat.
With the aviation world focused on the Farnbourgh air show, we visited Marine Corps Air station Yuma and talked with the two squadrons working the F-35B into reality, VMFA-121 and Marine Aviation Weapons Training Squadron One (MAWTS-1).
Mimicking the USMC strategy of taking its fighting force to the point of attack where the enemy isn’t, we made the trip to Yuma to get updated on the IOC of the plane and progress on its integration into the USMC.
A squadron F-35B seen at Yuma on July 16, 2014. Credit Photo: Second Line of Defense
Their approach for an earlier template of innovation can seen with the dramatic changes associated with the Osprey.
As Lt. Col. Boniface, an MV-22 Squadron CO, said about his effort-“there will be a Tsunami of change.”
With the combination of the Osprey and the F-35B a fighting force of Marine infantry will be able to go at range and distances of over a thousand miles of reach.
This is a unique 21st century, combat capability
The key to the future, as demonstrated at Yuma is to put the F-35B in the hands of the operators.
Already, the pilots of VMFA-121 are working very closely with USAF pilots as the Air Force prepares for its IOC in 2016.
The USN is clearly involved but with less sense of urgency.
As Major Summa, the Executive Officer of VMFA-121 put it in an interview during our visit: “Working with the other service pilots provides an important window on where we want to go with the concepts of operations of the aircraft. We have different backgrounds, Harrier, F-18s, F-16s, F-22s, and F-15s, but we understand that given the commonality of the aircraft these different backgrounds suggest common ways ahead. We are all able to contribute to the way ahead for a common aircraft.”
And already some very different ways of operating are suggesting themselves. Historically, there is a one to one relationship between combat aircraft and mission support aircraft in doing certain types of initial insertion missions. The Major highlighted that “with the F-35 and its combination of stealth and fused combat missions we can reduce dramatically the need for mission support aircraft in initial operations. For example, a non-kinetic electronic warfare option is one button push away.”
The co-location of VFMA-121 with MAWTS-1 is an important part of the introduction of the aircraft. While VFMA-121 is preparing the aircraft for IOC, MAWTS-1 is responsible for the tactics and training for USMC aviation. F-35, MAWTS instructors are flying with VFMA-121 to shape evolving concepts of how to standardize fleet operations for the new aircraft.
As a former CO of MAWTS-1 and now the Commanding General of 2nd Marine Air Wing, Major General Robert Hedelund put it in a recent interview: “VFMA-121 will figure out how to kill the enemy more effectively and MAWTS will standardize the approach.”
This combat learning cycle will go on and on as long as F-35s are in the inventory. Clearly, USMC experience will be informed by the pilots and operators of other services, including allied partners as they will inform their joint and coalition partners. It is an interactive combat learning cycle with deadly success on the line.
Again, an earlier focus on synergy between operators and evolving concepts of operations is underscored by recent successful Osprey combat experience. The Osprey is not a replacement for the CH-46 just as the F-35 is not a replacement for the Harrier or F-18; it is a new page of aviation combat.
It may have taken awhile for the Osprey to enter into service but it has revolutionized USMC operations, the tiltrotar assault force changed the operational range of the entire Amphibious Ready Group-Marine Expeditionary Group (ARG/MEU). A MV-22 enabled infantry force can now cover more than a 1,000 miles engaging in combat operations and also as seen in Odyssey Dawn execute an unprecedented TRAP mission.
Changes will become even more dramatic when the new generation pilots become the operators of the fleet.
In an interview when he was the CO of 2nd MAW with the now Deputy Commandant of Aviation, Lt. General Davis he referred to the new generation pilots as the I-Pad generation pilots.
And what I really look forward to is not the old guys like me, but the very young guys who will fly this fantastic new capability.
The older generation may have a harder time unleashing the power and potential of the new gear – the new capabilities.
We might say “why don’t you do it this way” when that approach might be exactly the wrong thing to do from a capabilities standpoint.
The newbies that are in the training command right now that are getting ready to go fly the F35, who are going to unleash the capabilities of this jet.
They will say, “Hey, this is what the system will give me. Don’t cap me; don’t box me.
We have already seen this with the Osprey; the pilots who have only operated Ospreys working with infantry instructors don’t think the same as an older generation.
Anyone who thinks that this is a decade of treading in place in military capabilities for American forces is missing the transformation of the USMC and its interactive impact on the joint and coalition forces.
The Marines are part of a nascent F-35 global enterprise and their approach to innovation will infuse the enterprise with considerable dynamism.
Editor’s Note: The interview with Lt. Col. Boniface was done two years ago and the video was shot at that time.
A version of this article has been published by Defense News, July 28, 2014.
There is unspoken, but growing apprehension among central bankers that the Chinese financial market is vulnerable to serious, potentially systemic shocks. To put the measureable scale of debt exposure in perspective, China’s total debt to GDP ratio was 147% at the start of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.
The debt to GDP ratio is now about 250%, and growing as official support for banks continues to rise.
Most world market analysis of China’s economic growth continues to be based on China’s officially published GDP growth rates.
Lowered Growth Expectations
However, inside China’s upper levels of government (Central Committee, Politburo, and Premier Li Keqiang) growth expectations are gradually being lowered. It seems to be admitted among higher level officials that the latest official growth rate was deliberately devised as 7.5% to assure the public that Xi Jinping’s publicly proclaimed target is being met. Inside the higher levels of the Chinese government a 6.5% growth rate is thought to be more realistic for the next year or two, and that this slightly lower rate of growth is “politically manageable.”
Chinese official national economic data are compiled from data generated at the local and provincial level, and adjusted according to a methodology not publicly available for review. Local and provincial data are often manipulated to assure the central government that its economic plans are being achieved. The components of the deflator used to set “real” GDP growth vary from quarter to quarter.The aggregate national numbers are built upon flawed or deliberately distorted reporting.
Other published indicators can be called upon to assist in evaluating the official economic growth numbers. Typically, world markets give close attention to the ISM manufacturing index. The government generates its own ISM figure, and HSBC publishes a different index which is usually lower than the official number. The ISM is determined via surveys, but the reliability of the surveys is questionable. Various other indicators watched by markets include inventories of coal, iron ore, copper and cement. Yet inventories of raw materials may not be good indicators of economic activity.
Some years ago, when Premier Li Keqiang was in a subordinate role, he publicly suggested that alternate measures might sometimes be better indicators, such as electric power consumption or power output, rail cargo, automotive sales, and excavator sales.
Recently most of such indicators suggest deceleration of growth.
Chinese Financial Stress
Turning to China’s financial market, there is growing high-level worry inside China about potential financial stress from now through the next two or three years. The pileup of nonperforming debt in the banks, particularly local banks, is well understood. The exposures of the rapidly expanding “shadow banking system” (non-bank financial intermediaries) are far less understood. With minimal oversight, there is little data by which exposures to nonperforming debt and counterparty risk can be measured – or even estimated. Recently, two of the so-called “Trusts” have declared insolvency, but little evidence exists to suggest the scale of how many more might fail.
The government says it is trying to rein in the shadow banking system, but officials seem unsure about how much restrictiveness could be tolerated without a systemic breakdown. In essence, Chinese investors have been emulating the behavior of US “financial engineers” in the late 1990s and first decade of the 2000s, firing up leverage through hyper-hypothecation of assets, minimal documentation and custody mechanisms, and “friendly” toleration or even encouragement by local and regional government officials. The level of corruption is simply not known beyond the localities of funding.
Many of the Chinese financial intermediaries rely heavily on short-term funding provided by European and US megabanks. Futures contracts and other derivatives provide the connectivity for much of the non-bank financing, opening potential for systemic collapse if individual links in elaborate collateral chains were to break.
The real estate market has become so heavily leveraged that officials openly acknowledge the existence of commercial and retail real estate bubbles. Residential values have been falling in some areas recently, threatening to trigger social unrest from families whose savings are being eroded.
As in many other nations, the government official measures of inflation are usually adjusted downwards so as to conceal or obfuscate household impact. The official deflator used in calculating real GDP rate of growth is continuously adjusted without regard to any coherent methodology, but normally is set significantly lower than what might be considered by ordinary households as the “real” rate of inflation.
China was able to grow extraordinarily rapidly in recent decades by reliance on its export engine which accounted for more than 40% of GDP. At the time of the Lehman collapse, world trade finance came to a halt, and world trade began its longest, deepest contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In 2011 and 2012 world trade recovered and slightly surpassed the peak of world trade which had been reached in August, 2008.
The Need to Rely More on Chinese Domestic Growth
However, more recently the pace of world trade has slowed markedly, rising at a rate of growth somewhat less than the rate of growth of the world economy. It should be recalled that before 2008, world trade had risen at an average rate of almost twice as fast as world production. Now, instead of double world production, it is rising less than world production.
In this context of slow world trade growth, China is experiencing rapid decline in manufacturing competitiveness. As the Chinese economy grew, wages have had to be raised. At the same time, China’s export products gradually moved up the value added ladder, to more complex products embodying technological innovations. Chinese manufacturing quality control suffered during this transition, discouraging foreign businesses from using Chinese parts, components, and sub-assemblies for global markets.
Gradually, foreign manufacturers that had been involved in local manufacture inside China shifted their production expansion to other countries like Vietnam. As a destination for overseas production, China is no longer choice number one, unless a foreign company wishes to focus on the Chinese domestic market.
In recent years Europe passed the US as China’s biggest export market, but Europe is still suffering from the consequences of the Great Financial Crisis and mired in slow growth, on the edge of slipping into negative growth. The US economy and most other markets around the world have also suffered economic slowdown, and in 2014 the outlook for world growth appears to be weakening, not strengthening.
Thus, China is now faced with weakening global competitiveness and weak foreign markets. It is in growing need of stronger domestic-led economic growth.
As the Chinese population is no longer growing, the labor force in future years will gradually shrink as a share of total population, and the aging population will have need for a growing share of economic output. The transition to domestic-let growth will not be easy. One of the most obvious examples of the many challenges is that to raise domestic consumption wages must rise at a faster rate, but this will put upward pressure on inflation.
The Impact of the Political System
At the pinnacle of the Chinese economy is a centralized planning system managed by the Communist Party Central Committee, Politburo, and the Standing Committee of the Politburo and the National Security Committee (encompassing the PLA military leadership and other ministries and agencies).
To the outsider, the Chinese governing structure looks coherent and orderly, but behind the formal structure are various groups vying for power with varying ideas of how policy should be made, what policies should be followed, and how to enforce policies once agreed, while maintaining acquiescence of the wider population.
Even within the Politburo there can be found elements of two separate factions that emerged following the death of Deng Tsao Ping: The Shanghai bang, led by China’s former leader Jiang Zemin, and the Youth League Faction, led by former leader Hu Jintao. The present national leader, Xi Jinping, is from the Shanghai bang, but when Jiang Zemin passes on, that faction potentially might break into different segments. In the background are the New Left, which promotes return to more disciplined management of the economy and society, and the Princelings (sons of the families of former Party leaders).
The now disgraced Bo Xilai used Princeling status to build a widespread personal power network among the New Left but also with the State Security apparatus and the military leadership. He also established a powerful personal political base in Chongqing province. At present, it would appear that Xi has set in motion a persistent effort to wind up and eliminate from power the entire network built by Bo Xilai, mostly using allegations of corruption, but with intent to destroy an alternative personality power cult which might potentially evolve into a challenge to the Jiang-Hu structure.
Xi has essentially completed reform of the Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Standing Committee of the Politburo. He has also set in motion a broad crackdown on the State Security hierarchy, with its former head Zhou Yongkang already held under house arrest for charges of corruption.
Xi has also begun a methodical reconfiguration of the PLA leadership, but that, left to the last, may be more difficult.
China’s PLA functions in 7 distinct military districts. Of these, the northeastern Shenyang Military District is perhaps the most powerful, with greater mechanized mobility than other districts, and standing by the border with North Korea. The connections between the PLA in this District and Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai are said to have been intricate and strong. The generals in this military district are also thought to be directly involved with managing relations and business with North Korea.
One of the steps taken under Xi has been to shift a greater share of military spending to the Navy and Air Force sections of the military, gradually squeezing spending in the domestic land-based military and giving larger roles to a new cadre of senior navy and air force officers.
Why this all matters is that the sustainability and strength of the new national leadership under Xi has not yet been tested.
A nationwide anti-corruption drive has begun, but hardly any Chinese citizens expect all corruption will be eradicated. Instead, selected segments of Chinese wealth and authority are expected to lose power and greater wealth and authority will be attained by other segments. Since 2010 many wealthy families have been eagerly seeking to move some of their family wealth abroad, in anticipation of unknown reallocations of power and wealth that might follow the ascent of Xi and his new Standing Committee.
The recent surge in outflow of capital is not readily measureable, but its scale is reflected in huge demand of Chinese citizens for high-end residential properties in London, New York, Toronto, Sydney and other cities around the world. Most wealthy families with sons or daughters press them not only to be educated abroad, but to remain abroad to manage family wealth from other legally protected jurisdictions in nations strong enough to resist pressure from Beijing.
The Impact of Politics and the Military
Why does this all matter to the Chinese economic outlook?
Many central bankers, private bankers, and finance ministry officials in other countries are wondering whether the Chinese power-based political decision system can cope with the challenges of reconfiguring the Chinese economy and prevent its financial market crashing.
This is not a question of the capability of the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) but rather the capability of consensus decision making in Beijing and the regional governments at a time of maximum financial stress. When looked at in this way, the apprehensiveness felt by many central bankers about the financial challenges facing China’s enormous, bubbly economy can be understood.
During this complex transition and reconfiguration of political power the government’s highest priority is to prevent excessive social unrest or disorder.Efforts to ramp up national sentiment against neighbors, particularly Japan, are part of an effort to maintain loyalty to a single flag and a seemingly uniform leadership structure.
This emerging new power structure may be able to manage reforms of shadow banking, or housing bubbles, and injection of additional liquidity to an insolvent banking system, but successful management may result in damage to foreign interests, including the interests of foreign lenders who would likely be given low priority in financial crises.
To keep its military structure acquiescent, Xi will likely let his navy explore further blue water reach, through the Arctic, the Indian Ocean, and certainly across its own neighborhood of the South and East China Sea.
Gradually, the government is likely to begin to control its newly declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) not only to protect itself, but to push other military forces, especially those of the US, further away from China (and further from Taiwan).
Occasional provocations of neighboring nations, and even sometimes of US forces, will be cheered by the PLA and perhaps by the people of China.
Given that the present Administration in Washington has clearly demonstrated domestic political issues take priority over global security challenges, and that the Administration is “disinclined” or hesitant to take action when talking or sanctions can be substituted for force, China may tend to feel safe in probing possible US responses to an increasingly assertive China.
I had the pleasure of serving as Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force from 2004 to 2008, including all of the time during which Mike Wynne was our Air Force Secretary. Working with Mike, and the USAF Chief of Staff, Gen Buzz Moseley, will always stand out as a highlight of my professional career.
The Air Force is the only service that has a Chief Scientist who reports directly to top leadership, and can provide the sort of unfiltered, unfettered advice that is often required.
The very existence of the position is a tribute not only to the Air Force’s founders’ foresight, but to the technology-driven vision that infuses all that the Air Force does, and that marks it as the science and technology branch of the Department of Defense.
To be effective, the Air Force Chief Scientist has to work with engaged leadership.
That is inherent to the position, because while the Chief Scientist is a direct report to the Chief of Staff and Secretary, he really has no authority on his own.
Dr. Mitat A. Birkan, left, space power and propulsion program manager in the Air Force Office of Scientific Research’s Aerospace and Material Sciences Directorate, speaks with Dr. Mark Lewis, chief scientist of the Air Force, during a break at the Space Propulsion and Power Contractors Review held in Annapolis, Md. in October 2006. Credit: USAF
The Chief Scientist doesn’t control anyone’s budget and doesn’t even have a staff to supervise, other than an executive assistant to run the office, and a colonel military assistant to keep him out of trouble.
In fact, the Air Force’s research budget and acquisition plans are made elsewhere, in Air Force acquisition and in Air Force Materiel Command.
As such, the only real authority that the Chief Scientist has is “associative” – the authority that comes from association with the real decision makers. With access and support from the Chief and Secretary, the Chief Scientist can do amazing things; without that, the Chief Scientist may as well break out the box of crayolas and head to a corner.
Mike Wynne understood this; in fact, he fully appreciated the importance of supporting all of his staff. It was one of the many things that marked him as a truly great leader, and one of the reasons that each member of the Air Staff was in turn fiercely loyal.
Especially important to my job, Mike Wynne understood that the United States Air Force is a service that is built on science and technology, and the practitioners who employ that science and technology. He was one of the greatest champions of S&T we could have asked for, helping to build a fence around our research portfolio and guard it against the vagaries of Pentagon budgeting. In this he was greatly reinforced by Undersecretary Ron Sega, who reminded us frequently that “science and technology cannot be bill-payers.”
Mike Wynne was also partnered with a forward-thinking Chief in Buzz Moseley, who lectured our Air Staff that “failure to invest in the future” was one of the reasons other air forces had failed. Taken together, Secretary Wynne’s term as SECAF was an almost magical time for Air Force science and technology, and his leadership is one of the reasons I knew I had the very best job in the entire Pentagon.
There are so many examples of S&T topics that we enabled with Mike Wynne’s interest and support, from low-cost composite aircraft materials, to laser treatment for metals, to my own pet passion, hypersonic flight.
He cared deeply about our scientists and engineers, both civilians and in uniform, especially the youngest members of the Air Force research community. And his door was always open for an important S&T topic; that access made my office especially respected.
Among the many technologies that we championed, I’d highlight alternate jet fuels as one of Mike Wynne’s finest efforts.
He had the vision to recognize the future need for alternate sources of aviation power. The reasons seemed quite obvious, considering that the USAF is the government’s single biggest consumer of fermented dinosaurs, with a yearly fuel bill of $7B, more than the Army and Navy combined.
The strategic need for an assured fuel supply was also a driving factor. The largest user of jet fuel in the inventory is the Air Force mobility fleet, which uses engines that are generally very similar to those used by commercial aviation.
Thus, we also knew that we could look to industry for partnering opportunities, but with the USAF leading the way.
Needless to say, when it was announced that the Air Force was interested in alternate fuels, we had many, many people who wanted to supply us with their favorite technology solutions, but they all wanted the Air Force to foot the bill.
Mike Wynne had the insight to invite partners, but make it clear we would not fund infrastructure. Rather, we would purchase fuel from non-fossil sources if it worked in our fleet. We would also support the testing required to certify those fuels. But we would not fund the building of plants.
An F-16 Fighting Falcon climbs out over Las Vegas in this USAF file image. Engineers at Arnold began testing the engine used by most F-16s on a 50/50 mix of standard JP-8 jet fuel and a synthetic bio-fuel derived from the camelina plant. 7/2/10
It was during this time that I especially appreciated Mike Wynne’s support and confidence.
Here is one quick anecdote to illustrate his style: In order to kick start the Air Force’s alternate fuel activities, an industry day was announced at the USAF’s Arnold Engineering Development Center in Tullahoma, TN.
Arnold is the Air Force’s premiere ground test and evaluation center, and was then doing early work to certify manufactured “Fischer-Tropsch” fuels in existing jet engines. The Fischer-Tropsch process was well-established, having been used by the Germans during World War II, and more recently by the South African aviation industry in place of petroleum-based fuels; as such, it was a logical starting point for our alternate fuels work.
The event at Tullahoma turned into one of the most poignant days I experienced on the Air Staff. A group of us flew down together with Mike on his milair flight – always a good experience, as we got uninterrupted quality time with the Boss. Part of the day was spent dedicating a memorial to Mike Wynne’s brother, who was lost in combat over the skies of Vietnam. To have been included in such a meaningful event with the entire Wynne family was one of those special moments that are hard to describe. Suffice it to say, it was an incredible honor to be there by the Secretary’s side, and to join a family that was mourning a loss of four decades previous.
Later in the day we witnessed a fuel test in an engine cell, and Mike Wynne impressed each of the engineers and technicians with his interest, knowledge, and engagement. What a thrill it was to tour lab facilities and test cells with him! Then we went to the industrial round table. The meeting began with Mike Wynne at the head of the table, and me at his right hand, with the leaders of industry on either side. Secretary Wynne suggested that we go around the room and introduce ourselves, and so we began.
When it was Mike Wynne’s turn, he explained of course that he was the Secretary of the Air Force, and spoke a little about why we were all in the room. Then, before I could speak, he jumped in and said “I don’t want this gentleman to introduce himself; instead, I’d like to introduce him to you all. This is Mark Lewis, my Chief Scientist. He is my ‘rod’ and my ‘staff,’ my right hand. When you are speaking with him, it’s the same as if you are speaking with me”
I’m not usually at a loss for words, but at that particular instance I was completely dumbstruck. That the Secretary of the Air Force had so empowered his Chief Scientist was amazing; it was also quintessential Mike Wynne. His words of course had the desired effect, as our industrial partners treated me accordingly and after the meeting I was the most popular man in the room.
One other event of that day is worth noting, for it says something else about Secretary Wynne. A few weeks before this trip, I had offered some technical advice on an issue, but Secretary Wynne disagreed and decided to go in a different direction.
On the flight home, in the middle of a conversation, he suddenly turned to me and asked, “by the way, are you still mad at me?” I insisted I was not, that I was mostly disappointed in myself for not making the convincing argument, but he was having none of it.
We talked about his reasons for disagreeing, he explained his reasoning, and at the end of the conversation I realized there were some political dimensions to the technical issues that I had not considered.
That was also very special for me; the Secretary of the Air Force is under no obligation to explain himself to his subordinate Chief Scientist. At that moment it became clear that event though he disagreed with me, he respected me enough to explain why, and he wanted me to respect and understand his decision. I don’t think I could have ever appreciated him more than at that moment.
I had many more wonderful experiences and opportunities working with Secretary Wynne. Working with him was like taking a daily class in leadership, and my service on the Air Staff will always stand as a magical time in my career. With the hindsight of six years, I tell colleagues and friends that if I am very very lucky I may someday have a boss as good as Mike Wynne, but I will never have a better one. In every way, he was a Leader, with a capital “L.” More than that, he became a highly respected, much loved friend and mentor.
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth part of a series: