The Allies, Air-Sea Battle and the Way Ahead in Pacific Defense

03/22/2014
Shaping a New Sensor-Shooter Relationship in Japan with Aegis, Patriot and THAAD will significantly expand the capabilities of all (Credit Photo: Raytheon and its PAC-3)

2014-03-22  During a visit to PACAF, Second Line of Defense had a chance to sit down and talk with Navy Captain Pat Connelly.

Captain Connelly is currently the liaison from PACFLT to PACAF.  This puts him in an interesting spot to live through some of the major changes occurring with the US and its allies reworking Pacific Defense to deal with the various challenges in the Pacific.

SLD: A major change appears to be working significantly with allies to shape a more effective Pacific defense strategy to deal with the various threats in the Pacific, ranging from the humanitarian to maritime security to defense against North Korea to dealing with threats, which the PRC is generating in the region.

What is your sense of how we are working the allied relationship currently?

Captain Connelly: We do not have the bandwidth to do it all in the Pacific anymore.  We understand that.  And key allies are investing more in defense and rethinking their defense approaches.

The challenge is to ensure that we are all on the same page to reinforce one another’s capabilities.

SLD: A challenge then is to find the sweet spot between allied modernization efforts and our own?

Captain Connelly: It is. And PACFLT and PACAF are working together to ensure the best congruent path ahead with key allies.

Notably, South Korea, Japan and Australia are beefing up their capabilities and we are working to work more effectively with all of them, and would like to foster more interoperability among those allies as well.

SLD: Clearly one practical aspect of the focus on air sea battle involves the US Army.  The coming of THAAD to Guam and the prospects of building out the Army ADA role in the Pacific is an important contribution.  What is your sense of the role of THAAD in the regional defense structure?

Captain Connelly: The US Navy loves THAAD.

The presence of THAAD spreads the BMD defense of Guam responsibilities that we had to do prior to its deployment.

It allows us to move Aegis into its multi-mission deployment role and allows us to augment our overall maritime and air capabilities.

Prior to THAAD, to deal with the threat from North Korea, we had Aegis ships drilling holes in the water to protect Guam and not training for its other mission sets.

Shaping a New Sensor-Shooter Relationship in Japan with Aegis, Patriot and THAAD will significantly expand the capabilities of all (Credit Photo: Raytheon and its PAC-3)
Shaping a New Sensor-Shooter Relationship in Japan with Aegis, Patriot and THAAD will significantly expand the capabilities of all (Credit Photo: Raytheon and its PAC-3) 

And the expected arrival of the second AN/TPY-2 radar to Japan will take pressure off of some key 7th Fleet assets as well.  This is a good example of our joint services and allies working together to enhance overall Pacific defense capabilities.SLD: There is much confusion over what really is air-sea battle, but a key element of the way ahead is clearly to provide better sensor-shooter relationships across the maritime-air-land domains.  We talked about the impact of the coming of THAAD, what is the contribution of Naval Integrated Fire Control Counter Air (NIFCA)?

Captain Connelly: NIFCA is a key effort by the Navy and we are working with PACAF to deliver much better integration of sensors and shooters in Pacific operations.

The objective is to put a sensor deep into the battlespace, which then enables our air-to-air missiles or surface to air missiles (such as SM-6) to be able to reach their full kinematic range and not just be limited to what can be provided by the organic radar range of the weapons themselves.

With the growing ballistic and cruise missile threat, we know we will need to get at those platforms before they launch their arrows.

We believe NIFCA may help us whittle down the threat and to manage the challenges more effectively.

SLD: How do you see the evolution of air-sea battle?

Captain Connelly: Basically, the Air Force and the Navy have been working at supporting one another for a long time.  Air-Sea Battle is really just the next phase in codifying and further developing what we are already doing.

We are looking to enhance cross-domain synergy and to do a better job in coordinating and integrating the sensors and shooters which the US Army, USAF, USN and USMC can bring to bear on defense problems, and to work more effectively with allies contributing capabilities as well to the broader Pacific defense challenges.

 

 

 

 

Preparing for the F-35: An Aussie Perspective

03/21/2014

2014-03-21 Recently, the Williams Foundation in Australia held a seminar in Canberra on the future of air combat.

In particular, the seminar focused on the impact of fifth generation technologies and was built around a central set of presentations by operators of the impact of fifth generation aircraft on the evolution of combat operations.

RAAF Fighter Pilot Matthew Harper, Lt. Col. Chip Berke and the VMX-22 Commander Mike Orr.

These three operators addressed the question of what the fifth generation experience was all about and how that experience would affect the evolution of the force in the decade ahead.

Hunter Slide

In the presentation immediately prior to the pilots, Mr. Peter Hunter, from the Australian MOD provided a perspective on fifth generational technology as seen from Australia.

The full presentation can be found on the Williams Foundation website, but some of the key highlights are presented here.

Hunter underscored that within the Pacific region, obviously threats are going up, and threats of the sort that will require an ability to operate rapidly and within difficult combat areas, and the fifth generation is not a nice to have but a sine qua non for operations.

In a later presentation, a senior Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) officer highlighted the importance of F-35 with Aegis integration to deal with various missile threats, including those involving some nuclear assets.

Hunter viewed fifth generation aircraft a key element of dealing with evolving threats in the region.

Notably, it is the integrated combat systems of the fifth generation aircraft wrapped into a stealth platform, which is the centerpiece of the capability, but the ability to deploy a fleet of such aircraft able to conduct secure communications which was the key enabler of a joint force. 

Hunter clearly focused on the no platform fights alone approach in discussing how fifth generation aircraft enabled the overall joint force to prevail.

He placed a central emphasis on the radical changes which data fusion can bring to the combat air fleet.

The data fusion systems of the F-35 are viewed as key enablers for battlespace dominance, a dominance which has already has seen as one in a Red Flag exercise commented that his plane was “destroyed” by an F-22 that “we never saw, never knew was there, and we had no idea where the strike came from that destroyed us.”

Hunter 2

A key emphasis throughout was that true fifth generation aircraft is not about a sleek flying machine: it is about integrated combat systems, data fusion and the ability to share and push out the data which allows for information dominance.

He started and ended with a core message: it is not just about technology; it is about mastering the cultural revolution associated with fifth generation technology. 

“Success will be dependent upon how innovative we are in leveraging the technology of the fifth generation aircraft and their combat systems as upon the performance of the technology itself.”

He then added “the RAAF has several core competencies, which such allow us to master the new technologies. We need to build  upon our world class operational skills and our adaptive, high quality people and training.”

Just having the equipment is not enough.  He highlighted this point by talking about aircraft carriers.

“You can buy an aircraft carriers but this does not mean that this will be an effective combat system.  This requires many skill sets, training, history and operational skills beyond simply building or buying a platform.”

For a 2011 article on the F-35 and culture change see the following:

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110221/DEFFEAT05/102210314/Embrace-Air-Power-Revolution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Coming Impact of the F-35 on RAAF Modernization: Transformation by a Battle Hardened Force

2014-03-21 by Robbin Laird

After The Williams Foundation seminar, I sat down to discuss with one of the organizers of the seminar, Vice Air Marshall (Retired) John Blackburn his take on the questions, which posed to the seminar and how he thought those answers, were generated.

The core questions, which guided the seminar, can be seen in the slide below:

Williams2014 JB slides - Intent-1-2_Page_2

Question: You helped set up and host a conference at The Williams Foundation, which focused on the evolution of airpower in the decade ahead.

The RAAF is in the throes of a modernization process – C-17s, KC-30As, Wedgetail and F-35s.  Could you talk about the goals of the conference and the way ahead for the RAAF?

Blackburn: What we sought to do was to open up people’s minds to the potential impact of the JSF as a transforming capability.

It’s a trigger for change.

There is a risk in a lot of organizations and in a lot of places of people thinking about this airplane is to replace a previous generation of airplanes. It is not.

What we’re trying to do is get people to understand that it’s not just the airplane. It’s the total system. It’s the transformation of the CONOPS capability.

It networks and links in far different way from many other previous generations, and it will enhance our existing fourth generation capabilities.

We are looking at integration across the force with platforms like the Super Hornets, the 4.5 generation, the Classic Hornets, but also our Wedgetail capability, our AEW&C platform which – frankly – is leading edge technology and software upgradable unlike any our other previous platforms.

In other words, the combination of JSF with its transforming capability with Wedgetail, which is a significantly changed capability from the past, and our legacy capabilities gives us the opportunity to actually transform our force rather than just evolve it.

Question: The RAAF Wedgetail squadron is already living the experience of operating a 21st century system with software upgradeable built in.  This puts Australia on the cutting edge.  How will this play into the coming of the F-35 in Australia?

Blackburn: I think what it does is it changes people’s mentality or approach.

In the old days you had to wait for almost a midlife upgrade.

You would operate it past 10 years. There’d be a lot of process and paperwork for midlife upgrade.

And with the Hornet, we did that

This is a different model now where we can use the software upgrade capability of these platforms and continually evolve them in concert with other capabilities.

It is not just upgrading something within the Wedgetail. Now we can focus on how we’re going to achieve an outcome.

And instead of waiting five years for the next upgrade, you get an idea, you can insert that into a software upgrade program.

In a simple sense, it is analogous with the iPhone. That next IOS that comes after the iPhone could significantly change the functionality of the particular platform.

It is the ability as well rapidly to adopt change and take advantage of not only the capabilities of one platform but multiple capabilities as well and this new approach is going to change our approach to combat.

Question: The operators of the F-22s and F-35s coupled with Col. Orr’s focus on the integration of fifth generation capabilities within the USMC total force concept of the MAGTF really was a highlight of the conference.  They drove home the point that even that is a fifth generation aircraft, it is not simply a replacement for the past generation of combat aircraft, but part of a whole pattern of change in combat approaches.  Does this make sense as the core point really of the conference?

John retired from the Royal Australian Air Force in 2008 as the Deputy Chief of the Air Force following a career as an F/A-18 fighter pilot, test pilot and strategic planner.   His senior posts included Commander of the Integrated Area Defence System (IADS) located in Malaysia, commanding a multi-national headquarters established to effect the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), and Head of Strategic Policy in the Defence Headquarters.    He is now a consultant in the fields of Defense and National Security.
John retired from the Royal Australian Air Force in 2008 as the Deputy Chief of the Air Force following a career as an F/A-18 fighter pilot, test pilot and strategic planner. His senior posts included Commander of the Integrated Area Defence System (IADS) located in Malaysia, commanding a multi-national headquarters established to effect the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), and Head of Strategic Policy in the Defence Headquarters. 

Blackburn: Absolutely.

The message you got from those operators was this is not just to replace an airplane. This is a change in thinking. It’s a change in approach to operations.

The lessons that these young guys brought back out of it was striking because they were talking to an audience of operators, as well as, as a range of defense people in general.

The fact that the operators could get out there and say, this is what we learned from this experience. It’s not just we’re replacing our planes. It’s a change of thinking. It’s a change of doing things.

But also there is the opportunity by working not only within the RAAF context but with the Marines and other parts of the U.S. Forces, we can evolve and transform how we fight because we are jointly enabled by the JSF, fifth generation capability or the F-22.

That was the exciting part.

So we’re not listening to a company representative tell us that this is the best thing they’ve built. We’re not listening to sales people.

We’re listening to operators who’ve been through an experience that had fundamentally affected them. They get it. They’re driving change at their level.

So what we’re very keen in seminars to tell the audience of Air Force and people who are in there and the defense folks, it’s the opportunity they will have to take these capabilities, look at different ways to innovate and work with them. That is the exciting piece.

We don’t have to wait for a company to deliver the next upgrade. It’s how the operators use it and how they innovate it is going to make the difference.

Question: There were many younger officers from the RAAF in the audience. What do you think the message received was by these officers?

Blackburn: It is clearly a plane for their generation.

Leadership in this era of technological change is not about controlling from the top and directing everything.

It’s about enabling an environment of innovation and you let those younger generations experiment and develop and you give them the best space to work.

The older generation has a very important role. Experience is something that’s very hard won. You’ve got to guide mentally, these folks.

But what you can’t do is constrain them.

You set a vector where we’re trying to head and say, “Folks, go and have a look at this. You innovate. You think about what’s different here. You do it.”

However, throughout that process, don’t forget the experience is hard won. Let’s help them do that. Guide them. Don’t let them fall off the edge.

But give them a fair bit of free rein to try and do it. If we do that, that’s where our Western forces will maintain not only a technology edge but also a capability edge because it’s that ability to innovate very rapidly, to work out very different ways of doing things that our next generations will bring to the fight.

Question: The RAAF has significant combat experience in the past decade.  How does this affect the innovation process?

Blackburn: And one of the, the clear implications talking to the RAAF is this is a battle-hardened force. These are people who have gone through war, multiple wars and are bringing that combat experience to the definition what to do with the aircraft.

In the past, we didn’t have a very broad depth in recent generations of combat experience. That’s changed in the last 10 years.

Our Australian Defense Forces have been in operations, significant operations. And now we have a much better way to relate to the U.S. Forces who have also been on an extended  pace of high tempo operations.

Having the Marines come onboard in Australia is important as well. It’s really good to see how a truly a joint force is doing its job.

One of the challenges we’ll face in Australia is making sure that the Army, Air Force, and Navy work together in an even more integrated way to produce a better combat outcome.

And it’s one of the key challenges for the Air Force is going to be to communicate that the JSF it’s not just a shiny expensive airplane.

This is a transformation point, a trigger.

It can change the way not on the Air Force works but all the three services work together.

The Marines are a great example of working the different elements of a joint force.

          

 

The Centrality of Exercises and HA/DR operations in Re-Shaping the Pacific Approach: A Discussion with PACAF Staff

2014-03-21 By Robbin Laird

During my visit to Hawaii I had a chance to talk with senior PACAF staff working in the exercise and international affairs arenas.

The command is in a good position as they’ve focused on working out approaches in the disposition of forces, and shaping effective working relationships with both the key allies who are investing in modernization as well as partners who are working to provide for their security with less robust financial and force structure means.

Both types of relationships are central to a 21st century approach to Pacific strategy and both were discussed with the PACAF as well as with the MARFORPAC staffs.

The evolution of good working relationships with the partners in the region is a strong foundational element for the deterrence in depth strategy being forged in the region.

During the discussion, one senior member of staff underscored the importance of a “one government approach” to working with partners and allies in the region.  “It is crucial that regional the trade relations allow for growth by all the members so there are not weak and failed states within the region which can be exploited by those who wish to do so.”

By working in the region with the various agencies of the US government, the goal is to provide a range of means to provide for regional security.

With regard to the military component, the emphasis is on going beyond narrowly based bilateralism to shaping effective multilateral relationships and capabilities.  The exercise regime is a key venue through which this change is being carried out.

As one participant put it:

We are going beyond a hub and spoke, bilateral exercise approach to a multilateral approach. 

The purpose is not just to meet and work together but to build partner capabilities as well as our own and to be prepared to work effectively together in crises, either humanitarian or otherwise.

Seen from Washington and budgeters, exercises might seem the cherry on the cake.

And as one Marine noted later during my stay, “There are no jobs associated with funding exercises seen from the standpoint of Congressional districts.”

But the reality as seen from Hawaii is quite different.

Exercises are the venue through which the US actually can shape more effective US capabilities, partner capacity and  crisis response approaches and capabilities.

Aircraft from the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, and Royal Australian Air Force fly in formation over the Pacific Ocean in support of exercise Cope North 2013, Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, Feb. 5, 2013. During this event, the aviators trained on war-fighting integration tactics. Cope North is a multilateral aerial and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise, held annually, designed to increase the combat readiness and interoperability of the U.S. military, JASDF, and RAAF. (Courtesy photo/Jim Haseltine/Released)
Aircraft from the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, and Royal Australian Air Force fly in formation over the Pacific Ocean in support of exercise Cope North 2013, Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, Feb. 5, 2013. During this event, the aviators trained on war-fighting integration tactics. Cope North is a multilateral aerial and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise, held annually, designed to increase the combat readiness and interoperability of the U.S. military, JASDF, and RAAF. (Courtesy photo/Jim Haseltine/Released) 

There is another aspect to the centrality of exercises in shaping 21st century capabilities: core allies are adding new systems and capabilities.

How will these work with US forces and capabilities in the period ahead?

How will multiple sum force gains be achieved?

The answer in part is to leverage an exercise regime to add in the force re-shaping process.

For example, the Cope North exercise held in Guam was started as a US-Japanese exercise.  Now the Australians are core members of the exercise.

In addition, new participants were invited to participate in the HA/DR parts of the exercise as well.

As one participant noted:

At this year’s Cope North the South Koreans came with their CN-235s to participate as well as the Kiwis from New Zealand and Filipinos as observers.  

Such participation provides a solid basis for expanding their roles as appropriate.

Another aspect has been illustrated by the evolution of Red Flag.

As one participant put it,

Our role as a facilitator is growing in broadening the engagement opportunities for allies to work together. 

A good image of the change is that an Aussie Wedgetail was doing Command and Control for US, Japanese and South Korean jets at the recent Red Flag exercise. 

And, for the first time, South Korean jets crossed through Japanese air space to come to fly with the participants in Red Flag.

The process of preparing for an exercise regime is part of the outcome as well.  The USAF sits down with counterparts and sorts out a 3-5 year plan for specific national exercise participation.  Through that process the partner nation can sort out its way ahead with regard to the operations of its forces and the USAF understands better where that partner is headed as well.

In other words, exercises fit the nature of the region well, in that the U.S. is the core bilateral partner to many states in the region.  Exercises allow other partners to join in without hosting permanent U.S. bases.  As one participant put it: “We don’t want to be parked throughout the region; and our partners do not necessarily want us to be either.”

The Aussie Wedgetail is a player in a 21st century aerospace combat cloud for the Pacific.  Royal Australian Air Force personnel prepare the E-7A Wedgetail for a Red Flag exercise, June 11, 2012.  Credit: Joint Base Elemendorft-Richardson. 6/11/12
The Aussie Wedgetail is a player in a 21st century aerospace combat cloud for the Pacific. Royal Australian Air Force personnel prepare the E-7A Wedgetail for a Red Flag exercise, June 11, 2012. Credit: Joint Base Elemendorft-Richardson. 6/11/12 

This means in a world where “places not bases” is a key focus of activity, bilateral and multilateral exercises become a means to an end: shaping real deterrent capabilities with enhanced crisis response readiness.

An additional venue, which provides for real world collaborative efforts on a regular basis, is the frequent visit of forces which create humanitarian disasters.  The region represents approximately 80% of the world’s natural disasters so it sees frequent need for partners and allies to work together in extreme circumstances.

The approach being shaped by US forces in the Pacific is not to just show up on an ad hoc basis, but to forge integrated capabilities to show up and work with partners to enhance their ability to effectively to take care of their needs or to be organized to accept multi-lateral force engagement in support of a relief effort.

Clearly, Operation Damayan is a case in point. And in this crisis, the USMC and USAF worked hand in glove with support from the US Navy to insert a force to help get the relief effort started and largely withdrew within three weeks.

We published a wide range of reports on Operation Damayan earlier and the conclusion of those reports underscored the evolving approach of the US military in the Pacific:

On the US side, the story is rather a straightforward one: the USMC, the USAF and the USN came rapidly, created infrastructure within chaos to allow for the relief effort to follow and then within two weeks the core insertion force had left.

This is a story of coming to the aide of the Philippines rapidly as only the military can do, and bringing core pieces to the effort which allowed the follow-on forces, in this case relief agencies and personnel to follow.

In short, exercises and shaping approaches to better organized responses to HA/DR events are not an add-on to operations, in many ways they are the operations which build deterrence in depth for the period ahead.

Editor’s Note: The video above provides visuals on some of the US and allied planes involved in this year’s Red Flag exercise.

Red Flag gives aircrews and air support operations service members from various airframes, military services and allied countries an opportunity to integrate and practice combat operations.

More than 440,000 service members participated in RED FLAG since 1975, including more than 145,000 aircrew members flying more than 385,000 sorties and logging more than 660,000 flight hours.

RED FLAG gives Airmen an opportunity to experience realistic combat scenarios to prepare and train Airmen in the event of future conflicts or war. Gen. Robert Dixon, then commander of Tactical Air Command, established RED FLAG in 1975 to better prepare Airmen for combat missions.

The concept of RED FLAG was developed by Maj. Moody Suter to simulate the first 10 combat missions pilots would face.

Red Flag provides airmen from U.S. and allied countries an opportunity to experience realistic combat scenarios. RED FLAG has expanded to incorporate all spectrums of warfare to include command and control, real-time intelligence, analysis and exploitation, and electronic warfare.

Red Flag is a realistic combat training exercise involving the air forces of the United States and its allies, and is conducted on the vast bombing and gunnery ranges of the 2.9M acre Nevada Test and Training Range.

Red Flag gives aircrews and air support operations service members from various airframes, military services and allied countries an opportunity to integrate and practice combat operations.

RED FLAG is a simulated battlefield where aircrews hone the skills to survive, and thrive, in a high-threat environment.

More than 125 aircraft from the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, Royal Australian Air Force, and Royal Air Force of the United Kingdom will participate in the advance training, improving integration and interoperability amongst our joint and allied partners.

The return of RED FLAG to the Nevada Test and Training Range is an important step in rebuilding the combat capability of America’s Combat Air Forces.

The first plane is a Royal Australian Air Force Wedgetail E-7A Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft assigned to RAAF Williamtown, lands during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The second plane is a Royal Air Force Typhoon assigned to RAF Leuchars, United Kingdom, lands during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The third planes are two U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors assigned to the 27th Fighter Squadron, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., pass overhead on approach to Nellis during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB. Nev.

The fourth plane is a KC-135 assigned to the 92nd Air Refueling Wing, Fairchild Air Force Base, Wash., coming in for a landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The fifth plane is a U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor assigned the 27th Fighter Squadron Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The sixth plane is a U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The seventh plane is a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit assigned to the 13th Bomb Squadron at Whiteman AFB, Mo., lands during Red Flag 14-1 Feb 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The B-2 is a multi-role bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.

The eighth plane is an E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system aircraft assigned to the 964th Airborne Air Control Squadron, Tinker AFB, Okla., coming in for a landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The ninth plane is a U.S. Marine Corps EA-6B assigned to Marine Tactical Electronic Warfare Squadron 4, Marine Corps Station Cherry Point, N.C., landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The tenth plane is an EC-130 from the 43rd Electronic Combat Squadron, Davis-Monthan AFB, Ariz., coming in for a landing during Red Flag 14-1 Feb 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The eleventh plane is a Royal Air Force E-3 Sentry assigned to RAF Waddington, United Kingdom lands during Red Flag 14-1 Feb. 6, at Nellis AFB, Nev.

The E-3 Sentry provides situational awareness of friendly, neutral and hostile activity, command and control of an area of responsibility, battle management of theater forces, all-altitude and all-weather surveillance of the battle space, and early warning of enemy during joint, allied and coalition operations.

99th Air Base Wing Public Affairs

2/6/14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The USMC Approach to Innovation: Lt. Col. Spaid Reflects on the Osprey Experience and the Way Ahead

2014-03-21 During the visit of the Second Line of Defense team to New River on February 10, 2014, we had a chance to sit down with Lt. Col. Spaid to discuss his experience with the Osprey, the MEU, and the way ahead.

Lt. Col. Spaid is taking over at the CO of VMM-365, the Blue Knights, later this Spring.  He started with Ospreys in 2005 and his background is with CH-46s.  He was deployed on the first MEU, which worked with the Osprey in 2009, and now he is returning to sea with the 24th MEU this Fall.

In the interview, he discussed his experience with how the USMC introduced the Osprey, and has evolved the capability over time, and how the Osprey experience is being leveraged to prepare for the introduction of the CH-53K.

The pattern of innovation seen with the Osprey should almost certainly be repeated with both the F-35B and the CH-53K, whereby the assets are introduced, baby steps taken to get use to the aircraft, then to evolve the tactical understanding of the asset, and adjust the software to the evolution of tactics as well.

And in the course of all this, the fly by wire airplanes and their digital systems will allow a new approach to maintenance and mission planning.

Lt. Col. Spade described his first deployment with the MEU as follows: “we gently eased in the aircraft, and learned its capabilities and built confidence in the aircraft and began to shape new tactics for the use of the aircraft.”

Lt. Col. Spaid During SLD Interview at New River, February 10, 2014. Credit: SLD
Lt. Col. Spaid During SLD Interview at New River, February 10, 2014. Credit: SLD

As he was preparing for the engagement with the 24th MEU, much has changed.  “We now have matured tactics and the aircraft itself.  We are leveraging the range, speed and capabilities of the aircraft as a ground assault vehicle.”

During all of this evolution, the software has changed as well.  He described the Osprey as a highly computerized and automated aircraft.  He described the major shift from the CH-46 as a mechanical system to the Osprey as a digital one.

“A key element of the transition from the CH-46 to the Osprey as one of a significant shift in cockpit management and systems with the digitalized Osprey.”

Software in the aircraft has evolved over time and “if you have been out of the cockpit for 24 months, you come back to the squadron for retraining.”

The software evolves and with each upgrade, new publications are released explaining the changes and preparing the pilots and maintainers for the next phase. 

Air department Sailors assigned to the U.S. Navy's forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) remove chocks and chains from a U.S. Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey on the flight deck after refueling in support of Operation Damayan. Credit: USN, 11/17/13
Air department Sailors assigned to the U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) remove chocks and chains from a U.S. Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey on the flight deck after refueling in support of Operation Damayan. Credit: USN, 11/17/13

“By and large, the upgrade process is relatively seamless, but obviously some upgrades are more drastic than others.”

The aircraft has improved over time as the automated systems perform better and the operators gain more confidence in the performance of the aircraft.

“The ice protection systems are now better and a major change is the coupled mode whereby we fly close to the ground can really leverage automation.  We can fly from very far out and hover off the ground by using the automated flight systems. This is a major operational advantage when coming into the objective area in supporting the Ground Combat Element.”

A key aspect of the impact of automation and digital systems is how maintenance is conducted. 

“The maintenance profile has shifted from mechanics to avionics.  And the plane now has a flight history which is downloaded and the maintainers can directly examine the flight performance to determine repairs which need to be done.”

Another aspect of having digital systems tracking the flight envelope and flight experience is the ability to turn that data over to mission planners who can then use that information to plug into mapping software to determine the nature of the operational trajectory and battlespace experience surrounding the actual flight experience of that aircraft.

An additional impact of the Osprey is preparing more effectively for the introduction of the replacement for the CH-53E, namely the CH-53K. 

“The Osprey is the first of its kind to incorporate fly by wire technology. VMX-22 has a CH-53E cell helping with the transition and many of these are from the Osprey community.

We had a big leap from the CH-46 to the Osprey with the new fly by wire experience; it should be easier with the K in part because of having gone through the Osprey transition.”

 

 

 

 

Crimea, Europe and the Russian Resurgence

03/19/2014

2014-03-19 By Robbin Laird

Harald Malmgren has recently underscored that any focus on the Crimea without looking at the global context makes no strategic sense.

And indeed, the day to day focus on events the days before is exactly what leads to missing the context of what the Crimean dynamic is really all about or the strategic impact of Crimea being returned to Russia.

WE and European leaders found themselves at an impasse, unable to alter the loss of Crimea to Russia, or reduce the threat of further fragmentation of the predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine population.

The March 2014 political and media obsession with the Ukraine and Crimea distracted attention from the historic consequences of such a clash between Russia and the West.

One must remember that Soviet leader Khrushchev handed Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 as part of his re-set of Stalin’s policies.

Putin has reversed the “gifting” of Crimea to Ukraine.

A number of key dynamics are highlighted by Putin’s actions in Ukraine and Western responses, which suggest a significant turning point in 21st century history.

The first turning point is the conjunction of Russian actions in Syria, with Crimea with Cyprus.

With regard to Syria, the port in Syria has been of interest to Soviets and Russians for a long time.  It is clearly a key element shaping Russian policy in Syria.  Added to this is the crucial addition of the Crimean ports which will allow Russia to redesign how it will use the port, now that is free of constraints of dealing with a foreign government in using “its” ports.

And certainly, the rebuilding of the Russian tactical nuclear arsenal could bring these “forgotten” weapons back into play into a region where the nuclear dynamic is being reworked.

And then there is Cyprus, which is part of the “redrawing” of the map via the Euro crisis.  The Russians are working the debt problems of Cyprus in exchange for many things but clearly there is a desire to use Cypriat facilities, including naval facilities.

It is certainly not a stretch to imagine the Russian navy and air force leveraging the new situation to better position itself in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. 

And working to manage forces operating throughout the region is a useful input as well to working the expanse of their Arctic forces and preparing for management of East and West AORs for the Russians at the top of the world.

"We are planning to build 15 frigates and diesel-electric submarines for the Black Sea Fleet by 2020," Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said in June 2013. Apparently, the Russians are not going the LCS route.
“We are planning to build 15 frigates and diesel-electric submarines for the Black Sea Fleet by 2020,” Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said in June 2013. Apparently, the Russians are not going the LCS route.

Earlier, Malmgren and I suggested that the Euro crisis would lead to the redrawing of the map of Europe.

The Russians are engaging in the process of re-set of the European map.  This is the only re-set going on.

The second turning point is with regard to Germany.

The Germans provided an important input to Putin’s actions.

When a senior German minister clearly indicated that Ukraine was within the Russian economic zone, and not an imminent part of the European Union, Putin could read the tea leaves.

Let me be blunt: the Germans gave Putin the green light.

As Valentina Pop wrote in an EU Observer piece on Germany and the Eastern Partnership in January 2014:

The EU was wrong not to have analyzed possible conflicts with Russia before offering the so-called Eastern Partnership to countries like Ukraine, Gernot Erler, Germany’s new chief of relations with Russia and the eastern neighborhood told journalists in Berlin on Thursday (30 January). 

Barely a day in his new job, he said that being labeled as “someone who understands Russia” does not offend him. 

Unlike his predecessor, Andreas Schockenhoff, who did not shy away from harshly criticizing the Kremlin on human rights, Erler says it is important to take into account Moscow’s concerns – be they legitimate or not – about the West.

His appointment was a concession made by Chancellor Angela Merkel to her Social-Democratic coalition partners, who claimed the foreign ministry in the coalition government. 

Erler, who will turn 70 this year, is a fluent Russian speaker and is seen favorably in Moscow.  A close ally of German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier – himself a Russophile – Erler was the mastermind behind the idea of a “modernization partnership” with Russia, or, seeking democratization through increased economic ties….. 

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/germany-russia-and-ukraine-supporting-the-re-set-of-russian-influence/

Germany has been part of the problem not the solution.

But how might Germany be part of the solution to the Russian efforts?

Germany could provide two significant contributions.

First, Germany could lead the effort to move away from dependence on Russian energy exports.  This would require rethinking energy policy in a major way and including strategic considerations to their rightful place over politically correct environmental policies.

Second, Germany can make a significant military contribution.

By reinforcing the defense of the Baltic states, and Poland, Germany could work with other European states to bring about the European defense effort in a meaningful effort.  By working air and missile defense assets in the defense of Poland and the Baltic states, a serious line in the sand would be drawn before Putin’s appetite grows, and his disdain for Western sanctions of “individuals” in Russia convinces himself that this is all there is to Western will.

This does not require the United States. 

The United States could help but only if a fundamental turn of events were to happen.  This would start with working rapidly on energizing US strategic policy by getting projects like the Keystone pipeline going.  Contributing to a Western policy of energy disengagement with Russia is probably the only economic effort that would matter to Putin, not meaningless sanctions.

And as Malmgren has noted, given the dependence on Russian banks for several Western states, sanctions are bound to hurt in multiple ways which have nothing to do with Putin’s calculus.

Focusing on “Cold War” weapons like the F-22 and missile defense and funding abilities to integrate the two would also matter.  The US would actually be bringing new capabilities to the defense of Poland and the Baltics.  And ending a delusional EU and NATO expansion policy is crucial as well.  Include only a state, which you are prepared to defend as if it were your own.

What exactly would NATO have done if Ukraine HAD BEEN in NATO?

Ending delusional sidebar maneuvers on sanctions, and shaping a strategic re-set that would affect Russian behavior is the only way to meet real Western intersts in the period ahead.  Putin is counting on this not happening, and as Malmgren has noted there are other key players out there who will see significant maneuvering room for their ambitions if a realistic and forward leaning response is necessary.

We do not need to see the 1980 boycott of the Olympics repeated with the same level of predictable success.

Credit Image:  http://en.ria.ru/russia/20100623/159538260.html

 

 

 

 

Meeting the Challenges of “The Beaten Zone” at Sea: Shaping a Way Ahead

03/18/2014

2014-03-18  By Ed Timperlake

A recent news event triggered some thinking about the challenges of working within constrained waters.  The news event was that the USS Tuxtun was crossing the Dardanelles en route to the Black Sea.

According to a Russian news source (with a video contained within of the ship underway):

The Dardanelles is a narrow stretch of water in Turkey that separates Europe and Asia.

The Truxton still has to pass through the Bosphorus Straights in Istanbul before it reaches the Black Sea.

The Truxton is part of the Arleigh Burke class of destroyer and is among the largest destroyers ever built for the US navy.

It is designed as a multi-role warship with anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and anti-surface capabilities.

The ship is a very capable naval platform.

 “The 53rd Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, Truxtun will be able to conduct a variety of operations, from peacetime presence and crisis management to sea control and power projection.

Truxtun will be capable of fighting air, surface and subsurface battles simultaneously and contains a myriad of offensive and defensive weapons designed to apply maritime power to protect U.S. vital interests in an increasingly interconnected and uncertain world.” (http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=44599)

This is a distinct improvement on earlier times where the previous Navy ship in the Black Sea,a Frigate, the USS Taylor ran aground and the Captain appropriately relieved of his command. Ironically the USS Taylor and USS Mount Whitney were in the Black Sea to support Russia in their Olympic moment.

The Black Sea and the potential steaming area for the USS Truxtun to exercise “freedom of navigation is depicted on the Black Sea map below.

The ship is being sent on a peaceful mission.

But it is a warship.

Anywhere a Navy Ship goes it would be prudent for any adversary to know that there is the high probability the character of US Navy World War II  Fleet Admiral Nimitz goes with it.

There is a great quote about Nimitz’s  personal leadership in World War II. His chief of staff Raymond Spruance said of Nimitz, that he  “… never knew what it ment to be afraid of anything.”  (Neptune’s Inferno, The U.S. Navy at Guadalcanal’ James d. Hornfischer).

The Challenges of Operating in the Black Sea

The Black Sea, Area is 168,496 sq miles ringed by the following countries:

Bulgaria, Size of Tennessee with 6.9 million people

Romania, slightly larger than Oregon with almost 22 Million People

Ukraine, slightly smaller than Texas with 44 million people

Russia largest country in the world (1.8 times size of US) 142 Million people

Georgia (Remember them from 2008?), slightly smaller than South Carolina with population of 4.9 Million

Turkey, larger than Texas with a population of 81 million

(Compiled information with CIA fact book population estimates 2014)

The Black Sea as an enclosed body of water and narrow passages of sea can rapidly become a “Beaten Zone” for surface ships.

Such a constrained operating area reminds one of the importance of no platform fights alone; no ship should be sent along without a clear understanding of the threats it might face, and notably, the specific character of threats in constrained operating areas.

https://www.ceoe.udel.edu/blacksea/geography/index.htm l

There is a blunt direct use of words in ground combat that can signify the possibility of a military disaster, it is up to commanders to determine through their actions that the words mean a battle field defeat or a challenge to be fought through on the way to a victory. The words are “The Beaten Zone” and it is defined in the US military dictionary as “the area on the ground upon which the cone of fire falls.”  From Infantry Squad leaders up the Chain-of-Command all engaged must never allow the enemy to establish a “beaten zone” and if trapped in one rapid action is required to evacuate the area  while trying to  destroy the enemies weapons it is the difference between life and death.

It is a ground term but can also be employed at sea because of the increasing accuracy and lethality of modern weapons.

There are several high traffic strategic waterways and confined seas around the globe that an enemy can create a “beaten zone” for surface ships.

Ships going through the Dardanelles into the Black Sea give us a lesson from history on this very point of what a Beaten Zone can look like for the surface navy.

The Lessons from WWI

Early in the 20th Century, The Battle of Gallipoli, in which the British and French Fleet tried to fight through the Dardanelles captures the problem of war at sea in a confined space that can lead to a military tragedy ashore.

The lessons of Gallipoli resonate to this day, a lot of current military technology had it’s early application in combat during that fateful campaign-(historical reporting taken from wiki):

The use of airpower for the fleet:

  • On 17 February 1915, a British seaplane from HMS Ark Royal flew a reconnaissance sortie over the Straits. Two days later, the first attack on the Dardanelles began when a strong Anglo-French task force, including the British battleship HMS Queen Elizabeth, began a long-range bombardment of Ottoman artillery along the coast. The British had intended to utilise Ark Royal‘s eight aircraft to spot for the bombardment, but harsh conditions rendered all but one of these, a Short Type 136, unserviceable

Blinding the enemy:

  • On 18 March 1915, the main attack was launched. The fleet, comprising 18 battleships with a supporting array of cruisers and destroyers, sought to target the narrowest point of the Dardanelles, where the straits are 1 mile (1.6 km) wide. Despite some damage sustained by ships engaging the Ottoman forts, minesweepers were ordered to proceed along the straits. According to an account by the Ottoman General Staff, by 2:00 p.m. “all telephone wires were cut, all communications with the forts were interrupted, some of the guns had been knocked out in consequence the artillery fire of the defence had slackened considerably

The impact of Mines:

  • The French battleship Bouvet was sunk by a mine, causing it to capsize with her crew of over 600 still aboard. Minesweepers manned by civilians, under the constant fire of Ottoman shells, retreated, leaving the minefields largely intact. HMS Irresistible and HMS Inflexible were critically damaged by mines, although there was confusion during the battle about the cause of the damage—some blamed torpedoes. HMS Ocean, sent to rescue the Irresistible, was also damaged by an explosion, and both ships eventually sank. The French battleships Suffren and Gaulois were also damaged; the ships had sailed through a new line of mines placed secretly by the Ottoman minelayer Nusret ten days before. The losses forced de Robeck to sound the “general recall”

Authors note almost eight decades later:

On the morning of 18 February 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, Princeton was patrolling 28 nautical miles (52 km) off Failaka Island in the Persian Gulf, on the west side of the decoy U.S. Marine and naval invasion forces afloat. Two Italian-made MN103 Manta bottom-mounted influence mines detonated, one just under the port rudder and the other just forward of the starboard bow, most likely a sympathetic detonation caused by the first explosion. The blasts cracked the superstructure buckled.three lines in the hull, jammed the port rudder, flooded the #3 switchboard room through chilled water pipe cracks, and damaged the starboard propeller shaft.

A reactive enemy ground commander can seize the moment:

  • Men, I am not ordering you to attack. I am ordering you to die. In the time that it takes us to die, other forces and commanders can come and take our place.”  Mustafa Kemal Ataturk LtCol commanding. All agreed that the most effective form of defense was to hold the high ground on the ridges of the peninsula but there was disagreement as to where the enemy would land and hence where to concentrate their forces. Mustafa Kemal, a 34-year-old lieutenant colonel familiar with the Gallipoli peninsula from his operations against Bulgaria in the Balkan War, believed Cape Helles (the southern tip of the peninsula) and Gaba Tepe would be the two most likely areas for landing. In the case of the former, Kemal believed that the British would use their navy to command the land from every side, which the tip of the peninsula would allow; at Gaba Tepe, the short distance to the eastern coast meant forces could easily reach the Narrows.

A Raid can have significant tactical consequences:

  • A period of bad weather slowed the initial phase but by 25 February the outer forts had been reduced and the entrance cleared of mines. After this, Royal Marines were landed to destroy guns at Kum Kale on the northern Asian coast and at Sedd el Bahr on the southern tip of the Gallipoli Peninsula, while the naval bombardment shifted to batteries between Kum Kale and Kephez.

Undaunted individual courage was the code regardless of leadership bungling:

Gallipoli casualties (not including illness)

Dead

Wounded

Missing
&
Prisoners

Total

Ottoman Empire[5]

56,643

107,007

11,178

174,828

United Kingdom[223]

34,072

78,520

7,654

120,246

France[224]

9,798

17,371

27,169

Australia[225]

8,709

19,441

28,150

New Zealand[225]

2,721

4,752

7,473

British India[225]

1,358

3,421

4,779

Newfoundland[225]

49

93

142

Total Allies[223][225][224]

56,707

123,598

7,654

187,959

Every nations can honor their veterans and recognize the tremendous sacrifice:

  • The defeat of the British fleet had given the Ottomans a morale boost the day would later come to be celebrated in Turkey as a great victory
  • The campaign is often considered as marking the birth of national consciousness in Australia and New Zealand and the date of the landing, 25 April, is known as “Anzac Day“. It remains the most significant commemoration of military casualties and veterans in those two countries, surpassing Remembrance Day (Armistice Day)

Greatness is recognized by one’s words, a tribute to those ANZACs who died in Gallipoli, this is inscribed on the Atatürk Memorial in Turakena Bay, Gallipoli and at the Kemal Atatürk Memorial, Canberra:

  • “Heroes who shed their blood and lost their lives! You are now lying in the soil of a friendly country. Therefore rest in peace. There is no difference between the Johnnies and Mehmets to us where they lie side by side here in this country of ours. You, the mothers, who sent their sons from far away countries wipe away your tears; your sons are now lying in our bosom and are in peace. After having lost their lives on this land they have become our sons as well.”
  • “Centuries rarely produce a genius. Look at this bad luck of ours, that great genius of our era was granted to the Turkish nation.”
    David Lloyd George, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom speaking about Kemal Ataturk

Closed Water Operational Challenges

Fortunately, for the US Navy in the Asian Pivot, the quest for finding Malaysia Air Flight MH 370 has given the world a vivid example of the size of Oceans.  Combining the Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea  and the Indian Ocean and there is significant at sea maneuvering space for fast ships going in harm’s way.

However, like the Gallipoli campaign there are several vital relatively closed bodies of water around the globe in which ships can be easily found and attacked.

Thankfully with the focus of the US Navy on being the best “Blue Water Fleet” in the world, (with the exception of the budgetary and combat draining diversion of the Littoral Combat Ship), the Peoples Republic of China, creating a ‘Beaten Zone” against US and Allied ships is a difficult if not impossible task.

This is especially true if an Air/Sea Battle plan uses the expanse of Pacific Ocean for our Carrier Battle Groups (CBG), Gator Navy air assets and Asian Ally air bases   to launch attacks from many distributed vectors employing proven weapons to “turn out their lights” and then sink the Peoples Liberation Army Navy and shoot down any PLAAF aircraft “feet wet” and take out all the ground tracking and launch pads.

It takes a leap faith to not understand that the US Navy/Air Force/Marine and Allied teams would be ruthless enough, and technologically capable to blind an enemy taking out their satellites, and air and surface target acquisition systems.

Silly drawings of untested PLA IRBMs (e g DF21 et al)  showing it’s extended range with the assumption that it knows where a maneuvering Carrier Battle Group is let alone where it will be is way overly simplistic. Yet even at the US Naval War College some Professors argue that PLA over water ISR capability is absolute.

Many have argued about the end of the Navy in the Pacific because of a theoretical application of the famous Net Assessment’s Revolution in Military Affairs which is:

Precision guided munitions with remote sensors, along with the other revolutionary way ahead, Information war. Take out the sensors and a lot of PLA “precision” threats are not very accurate but rather simply untested capabilities and asserted not proven arguments

However it is true that when ships are constrained in maneuvering space, or forced to approach a coast then an enemy has a much better chance of bring precision guided munitions to the fight.

An enemy can create a “Beaten Zone” and in that situation it is even more critical to know where when and how to avoid the threat or if necessary blind and then attack an enemy.”

Whatever side has the better pre-hostilities information has a higher chance of victory.

Right now this the fundamental military challenge of sending the USS Truxtun into the Black Sea.

One of the great lessons from the US Navy Top Gun program was the saying “you fight like you train.”  Combining that insight with Secretary Rumsfeld’s statement that “you go to war with the Army you have,”  events in the current perilous world situation between Russia and Ukraine come into focus, because it is also true that  the Russians and Ukraine military may go to war with the armies they have.

First principle, just like the saying avoid ground wars in Asia, the US must stop way short of any consideration of ground combat in the Ukraine V Russia fight. The American people, get this to their very core as reflected by many polls that indicate around 12% support boots on the ground. Even if the if the US was manipulated into combat by some with a hidden agenda without a declaration of war

it is still  not a US  “Big Army” fight independent of what the Chairman has said:

“Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States General Martin Dempsey has claimed that in the case of an escalation of unrest in Crimea, the U.S. Army is ready to back up Ukraine and its allies in Europe with military actions. “

It will be left to future historians to figure out why a few days after the US Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff postured over US Army support for Ukraine that a prominent Russian TV host (backed by the Putin Administration) lashed out on a prominent TV show.

Russia is the only country capable of turning the United States into “radioactive ashes.”

This is not an idle threat by Russia especially with the possibility of Tac Nukes in their Black Sea Fleet;

The current Ukraine crisis is the worst of both worlds. Combining significant threats with the failure of strategic intelligence about Russian capabilities and intentions is of significant concern.

It has been widely reported that there was a breakdown in US Intelligence Community on US strategic warning of Russia making a move on Ukraine. Regardless of DNI Clapper’s public statements some very good reporting is coming out about a strategic intelligence failure of the first order. It will take time to see the real facts of the IC’s performance.

 Overtime, Congress is fully capable of seeing that if NSA can read the private e-mails of the Presidents of Brazil and Germany what did they do in the case of Russian and Ukraine leaders?

This should be a very high priority work in progress to bring disclosure to the American people; after all they paid for all this. With the revelations of the overzealous and highly inappropriate attack on world leaders by NSA, and early strategic miscalculations about Russian intentions   a continuing bi-partisan serious effort by Congress to address “all things NSA” is important.

Finally, one point, for the DNI, if you are explaining you are losing and if you have to go on a local DC radio show to say “not”…well enough said

Crafting a Combat Response

As a practical matter with American forces possibly in harm’s way up close real time intelligence is need by military forces not analytical papers from the CIA and NSA ineptitude.  Consequently with events moving quickly sending the USS Truxtun, a Burke class destroyer, into the Black Sea must focus some important 21st Century military capabilities while remembering some of the lessons learned from the last Century

Since the IC breakdown in strategic warning the USS Truxtun will have to rely even more on US and Allied ISR assets and reach back to airpower to address any potential threats in the area depicted on the map.  The need for ISR linked to offensive air is critical and not intrusive, until it can be very intrusive. There are many ways to “look and listen” to collect real world information on the actual movement of all air, land and sea military forces of both Russia and Ukraine.

From World War I forward America and our Allies have gotten better and better in overhead collection efforts, from aircraft to UAVs all integrated with existing Satellite coverage.

In addition to the inherent combat capability of the Truxtun, the situation depends on what the US Combat Commander, Air Force General Phillip Breedlove wants to focus on as his core warfighting assets.

There can be F-22s, F-15s and F-16s, from land bases with F/A-18s on the USS George Bush all available to help. In addition to aerial refueling tanker support,  the  US and allies can have AWACS, Navy E2-Cs, and other patrol planes along with Satellites, and ships (Aegis) and land based surveillance systems with all the data being sent back to his command center.

This entire panoply of combat capabilities spread out over thousands of miles can be brought together as required. It is actually doubtful it will all be necessary and events hopefully will not spiral out of control.

Combat Capabilities in Transition

But it is evident of a large data fusion problem to be both accurate, timely and reactive if any threat to the USS Truxtun is picked up. This is the state of art for the current situation. Let all hope the situation stabilizes.

However, very soon the entire way of thinking and commanding a fighting force will have a game changing aircraft introduced. The F-35 flying with the USMC, the USN, the USAF and allies can make a huge difference in protecting the fleet by both mapping the threat and targeting key elements of the threat as well as part of meeting the challenge of a “beaten zone” at sea.

For the first time in history a single aircraft will have extensive 360 degree reach for the Air-to-Air, Air-to-Ground and EW mission. Each F-35 pilot will move from having situational awareness in the cockpit to situational decision making. This is revolutionary and instead of the current “hub-spoke” air battle management combat engagement it will become a networked distributed system. Each F-35 is a combat “nodes” in a distributed system of nodes that no longer will need fused data coming top down from the command center to update threats. Rather, each F-35 can generate real time threat intelligence up and out from the cockpit.

This capability was demonstrated three years ago in the largest and toughest EW exercise in the world, Northern Edge. It took place over the Gulf of Alaska a very harsh environment it is much like the Black Sea but also larger in  scope also  the Black Sea has much better weather providing  a warm water port for Russia.

Gulf of Alaska, broad inlet of the North Pacific on the south coast of Alaska, U.S. Bounded by the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island (west) and Cape Spencer (east), it has a surface area of 592,000 square miles

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/12286/Gulf-of-Alaska

The F-35 is the combat answer to stopping any “Beaten Zone” at sea and if can survive and perform better than any other aircraft in Northern Edge it can survive  and bring a 360 AA.AG.EW  fighter to the Black Sea and the Islands in the Pacific along the China coast.

Northern Edge 2011 provided the focal point for the restructuring of U.S. power projection forces.

In a robust jamming operating environment, the F-35 radar and distributed aperture system (DAS) separated themselves from the pack, and have initiated a new era in thinking in combat operations.

In short, the Black Sea as a pop up event in the Crimean crisis reminds one of the need to operate effectively in close quarter naval operating areas. 

And rather than having to aggregate a gaggle of 20th century capabilities, the F-35 can facilitate a more agile, smaller footprint and more effective shutdown response in such potential combat conditions.

Thus, the national command authority can operate with greater flexibility especially when the USS Gerald R. Ford, CVN-78 can maneuver in Blue Water while  reaching out over closely confined sea lanes with F-35Cs on board.

Addendum:

As a Joint Program Office release underscores this is not only about the ability of airpower to operate in a robust EW environment in which cyber conflict is a key dimension but it is about the ability of an airborne capability to support maritime operations.

Participating in Northern Edge for the second time, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter sensor capabilities were tested in Alaska’s premier multi-operational environment from June 13-24, 2011. Hosted by Alaskan Command, Northern Edge is a biennial U.S. Pacific Command exercise that prepares joint forces to respond to crises throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

This year provided an invaluable opportunity to observe the performance of the F-35 JSF systems in multiple robust electronic warfare scenarios.

The AN/APG-81 active electronically scanned array radar (AESA) and AN/AAQ-37 distributed aperture system (DAS) were mounted aboard Northrop Grumman’s BAC 1-11 test aircraft. Making its debut, the AN/AAQ-37 DAS demonstrated spherical situational awareness and target tracking capabilities. The DAS is designed to simultaneously track multiple aircraft in every direction, which has never been seen in an air combat environment.

A return participant, the AN/APG-81 AESA demonstrated robust electronic protection, electronic attack, passive maritime and experimental modes, and data-linked air and surface tracks to improve legacy fighter situational awareness. It also searched the entire 50,000 square- mile Gulf of Alaska operating area for surface vessels, and accurately detected and tracked them in minimal time.

Navy Cmdr. Erik Etz, Deputy Mission Systems Integrated Product Team Lead from the F-35 JSF Program Office, said the rigorous testing of both sensors during NE 2011 served as a significant risk-reduction step for the F-35 JSF program. “By putting these systems in this operationally rigorous environment, we have demonstrated key war fighting capabilities well in advance of scheduled operational testing,” Etz added.

Having the exercise in June had its seasonal weather challenges for system operators to adapt and overcome. Inclement and cloudy weather hampered in-flight visibility. The DAS was significant in providing clear and discernable horizons, and views of ground features and nearby aircraft. It also wasn’t dark enough for testing night vision functions. A surrogate test visor was used for displaying DAS imagery to the operators. “The implications of F-35 JSF sensor systems for air-land-sea battle are immense,” said Peter Bartos, Northrop Grumman’s Test Director.

http://www.jsf.mil/news/docs/20110627_NORTHERNEDGE.pdf

https://sldinfo.com/the-northern-edge-difference-re-structuring-the-strategic-debate/

For an historical look at the land campaign on the Crimean peninsula see Professor Ken Maxwell’s article.

https://sldinfo.com/the-impact-of-crimean-history-the-danger-of-playing-one-upski-with-putin/

Editor’s Note: The source for the Black Sea map is below:

https://www.ceoe.udel.edu/blacksea/geography/index.html

 

PRC Strategy in Asia: Impose “Prohibitive Costs” To Opposing Their Will

2014-03-18  While attending the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Combat Operations: 2025 and Beyond, Dr. John Lee of the Kokoda Foundation provided a base line brief on how to understand the Chinese challenge, military and non-military to the region.

The contribution of Aussie airpower and associated military capabilities was to be understood in both national and coalition terms as a contributor to deal with such challenges.

Dr. Lee highlighted several key elements of the PRC challenge, which were included in his presentation, which is provided below.

The key points with regard to the PRC strategic view were as follows:

  • All things being equal, and assuming no disruptive developments to regional trends, America is here to stay strategically and militarily for the reasons that I gave.
  • China’s enduring vulnerability is not its sovereignty territory but its inability to secure unfettered access to the commons by itself, and inability to defend its unfettered access to the commons.
  • These vulnerabilities will persist whilst America and its system of alliances and security relationships remain in Asia. And these relationships seem to be robust and enduring.

Dr. Lee then underscored how he believed the Chinese were seeking to achieve their objectives in the period ahead:

  • You create the reasonable expectation that any significant military conflict with China will cause severe disruption to economic prosperity in the region – thereby lowering the political will in Washington or other regional capitals to contemplate military intervention in the first place.
  • You improve your military capacity to seize disputed islands before an organised and effective military counter-response is possible. In doing so, you raise the chances that any counter-response once territory has already been seize will be prohibitive. 
  • You gradually exercise de facto sovereignty and control over disputed areas in the East and South China Sea in a manner in which each individual move is never extreme enough to provoke a military response.

Now to the presentation itself:

My brief here is to speak about how China thinks about the region, why it has the strategic doctrine and operational concepts that it does, and how the PLA Air Force fits in.

My talk is NOT about what the true state of its military capabilities might be, or how they will fare against those of the U.S. and other powers; whether it can actually execute its operational concepts; or whether its civilian and military institutions are up to the task of modern, high-intensity warfare.

There are many of you who will know a lot more about these issues that I do, so I won’t pretend otherwise.

Let’s begin in the period when the Cold War ended. I know this may seem a little historical but bear with me because it is directly relevant to how the Chinese think about the region today.

Remember what has just happened to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). They have survived their own revolt in 1989 when there were protests in about 350 out of 450 cities involving millions of people. The CCP hung on by a fingernail. For the regime to survive, it needed to tap into the regional and global trading system to modernize its economy – this from the background of a country that had spent most of the post-WWII period alienating the majority of powers in the region.

So the Chinese were forced to consider their place in the modern, somewhat wary liberal order from a position of some ignorance. But they began badly. Throughout the 1990s, when the Chinese surveyed the outside environment, they made two assumptions that proved to be fundamentally incorrect.

The first was that Asia and the world would become far more multi-polar if not polarized. With the Cold War ending, there was near consensus in Beijing that American allies would move in a more independent direction, and that the US might even be forced to wind down its presence in Asia.

In doing so, China misread the drivers and psychology of American foreign policy, one of which is to maintain its preeminent strategic role in Asian maritime domains essential to its economic interests.

China also misread the psychology and strategy of the rising Asian economic states. States like Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore basically wanted a peace dividend – to get rich and to largely outsource security to America.

So to the amazement of Beijing, even as American spending went up in absolute terms and as a proportion of global military spending in the post-Cold War period, and the capability gap between America and the rest of the world widened, few rising states in Asia seem particularly concerned about it all.

In fact, they encouraged it. And except for incidents such as the Filipinos kicking the Americans out of Subic Bay in 1992, most allies seem happy to facilitate a robust American presence on their sovereign territory.

In other words, rather than balancing against America as China expected, countries were maneuvering to keep America on top in Asia.

The second mistake that China made, which follows on from the first, was that they had a fairly narrow view of national interest and security. In particular, they viewed national security as protecting the sovereignty of their continental territory, including holding on to Tibet and Xinjiang. Of course, there was always Taiwan, but that is more a political and emotive issue for the CCP.

Dr. John Lee during his presentation to the Williams Foundation, Canberra, Australia, March 11, 2014.
Dr. John Lee during his presentation to the Williams Foundation, Canberra, Australia, March 11, 2014.

In particular, it took them awhile to understand that modern, open economies in Asia depended on maritime rather than continental trade – a difficult realisation for a country that has been a continental power for thousands of years.

Even when China became a net oil importer in 1993, it took a while for Beijing to realise that one’s national interest depended on unfettered access to the regional and global commons, and that one’s core national interests were fundamentally threatened if one were ever denied free access to these commons.

If China understood this, it would have immediately realised why so many countries were prepared to outsource security to the Americans – since only the U.S. could offer stability and guaranteed access to the commons.

Of course, it is now clear to Beijing that the commons is more than just sea-lines-of-communication (SLOCs) – it’s also air, space and cyber.

Finally, one important realization has finally dawned on the Chinese. If we put aside arguments based on the greater attractiveness of American political values over Chinese ones, we need to remember that the grand strategy – if there is such a thing – of pretty much every Asian power for centuries has been to prevent the rise of another Asian hegemon.

In the modern day, this is extended to preventing any Asian hegemon controlling the regional commons. Not geographically based in Asia provides a structural and strategic reason why most Asian countries prefer to outsource security to America rather than to an Asian hegemon.

Moreover, because of China’s pure size, and potential power, there will be no balance in Asia without America if China continues to rise as rapidly over another two decades (a questionable assumption in my view).

In other words, hedging against China and closer to America was always going to be the likely response of every major trading power in Asia.

This leaves China as a strategically isolated rising power despite its economic importance to the region. It is the second largest economy in the world without any genuine strategic allies to speak of (unless you count North Korea). That is unprecedented in recorded history since large economic powers generally exert a strategic pull.

So before I get on to the military dimension of all of this, let me summarize the Chinese view of the region as I see it.

All things being equal, and assuming no disruptive developments to regional trends, America is here to stay strategically and militarily for the reasons that I gave.

China’s enduring vulnerability is not its sovereignty territory but its inability to secure unfettered access to the commons by itself, and inability to defend its unfettered access to the commons.

These vulnerabilities will persist whilst America and its system of alliances and security relationships remain in Asia. And these relationships seem to be robust and enduring.

So even though they have achieved many of the economic goals they set for themselves, the Chinese misread the post-Cold War strategic environment and have a weaker hand than they would have expected. And like all of us, if we get something important wrong, it tends to have a profound and lasting impact on how we look at things. And the Chinese are no different.

But the Chinese are not without strategic options. And this is where the lessons – for Beijing anyhow – of Subic Bay comes in.

I know it’s a complicated story, but essentially, the Americans left Subic Bay – then the largest American overseas base – without a shot being fired. The American vulnerability from the Chinese point of view is that the US will not, and probably cannot afford to go to war in order to maintain its military footholds on sovereign territory if they lose the support of the host government.

So if I were the Chinese, this is how I would be thinking… And in fact, the following is how I believe they do think about strategy in the region. The fundamental principle is to:

Lower American political will to intervene in a military conflict; or lower the political will for regional states to resort to reliance on American military assistance and protection.

The PRC and its newly declared Air Defense Identification Zone is not just about asserting air defense outward. It is about taking a bite out of 21st century approaches of the US and its allies for Pacific defense. Credit Graphic: SLD
The PRC and its declared Air Defense Identification Zone is not just about asserting air defense outward. It is about taking a bite out of 21st century approaches of the US and its allies for Pacific defense. Credit Graphic: SLD 

How do you achieve this?

There are a number of ways.

You create the credible expectation that you can impose prohibitive military costs on American military assets; or that you can impose prohibitive costs on the military assets of the American ally with or without American attempts at intervention.

You create the reasonable expectation that any significant military conflict with China will cause severe disruption to economic prosperity in the region – thereby lowering the political will in Washington or other regional capitals to contemplate military intervention in the first place.

You improve your military capacity to seize disputed islands before an organised and effective military counter-response is possible. In doing so, you raise the chances that any counter-response once territory has already been seize will be prohibitive.

You gradually exercise de facto sovereignty and control over disputed areas in the East and South China Sea in a manner in which each individual move is never extreme enough to provoke a military response.

If you can achieve all that, you will dilute the relevance and reliability of the American alliance system, consolidate your control over the immediate maritime commons of Asia, and eliminate your perceived vulnerability in these immediate SLOCs.

And if you achieve that, it is a first and important step to kicking American out of Asia without a shot actually being fired. So American strategic and military pre-eminence in Asia will end with a whimper – like Subic Bay in 1992 – and not a bang.

So bear in mind the inferences you should have from the Chinese view:

They don’t have to be able to win the battle, let alone the war, to achieve their political and strategic objectives – just be able to impose prohibitive military and/or economic costs.

They don’t need military capabilities to defend all their economic interests such as commercial shipping into China through SLOCs which is impossible. They just need enough military capability to cause prohibitive damage to commercial shipping for other countries – a far more feasible tactic.

Let’s now get on to some Chinese military doctrine and concepts – and I’ll link it back to what I just said. The first one you might have heard about is the contradictory sounding ‘Active Defence’.

Active Defense is an operational guideline for military strategy that applies to all branches of the PLA including the PLA Air Force. It states that China’s military engages in a policy of strategic defence and will only strike militarily once it has been attacked. But there are two conditions attached to Active Defence.

First, it states explicitly that such a defense posture is only viable if connected to an offensive operational posture.

In other words, as far as the PLA is concerned, an effective counter-attack is only possible when the PLA is able to negate the enemy’s offensive military assets in predetermined areas.

To put it in another way, if a man is running at you with a knife, you don’t go for his hand. You ensure that you are pre-emptively positioned to stab at his legs.

Second, Active Defence explicitly states that a first strike that triggers a Chinese military response need not be military in nature. It can be political, such as a Taiwanese declaration of independence. In other words, and under Active Defence, a Chinese military reaction is a legitimate response to political provocation.

The next term you might have heard about is ‘Local Wars under Conditions of Informatization’ (or ‘Local Wars’ for short). While Active Defence provides the basic strategic posture for the PLA, Local Wars is more an operational concept and has been the official operational doctrine of the PLA since 1993.

Local Wars assumes that foreseeable wars for China will be located geographically, primarily along China’s periphery. It will most likely be limited in scope rather than a total war, limited in duration and means, and conducted under ‘conditions of informatization’.

To quote the American DoD, this simply means “conditions in which modern military forces use advanced computer systems, information technology, and communication networks to gain operational advantage over an opponent” – in other words, the operational doctrine refers to “high-intensity, information-centric regional military operations of short duration.”

This outlook basically arose when the Chinese observed American operations during the first Gulf War in 1991 and saw this as the beginning of a new era of warfare in which technology revolutionised the way militaries were organised, led and fought.

Moreover, because of the economic and nuclear constraints on the conduct of total war, the Chinese are convinced that future wars will be fought under these localised conditions to achieved limited political goals such as the settlement of territorial disputes.

J-20 prototype which flew shortly before Gates visit.  Recently, Gates explained that "Gates, 70, said in an interview yesterday that former president President Hu Jintao “did not have strong control” of the People’s Liberation Army. The “best example,” Gates said, was China’s rollout of its stealthy J-20 fighter jet during a visit he made in January 2010." Credit Photo: Kyodo News, 2011
J-20 prototype which flew shortly before Gates visit. Recently, Gates explained that “Gates said in an interview yesterday that former president President Hu Jintao “did not have strong control” of the People’s Liberation Army. The “best example,” Gates said, was China’s rollout of its stealthy J-20 fighter jet during a visit he made in January 2010.”
Credit Photo: Kyodo News, 2011 

Many of you will know more about China’s military modernisation than I do, but it seems to me that the PLA’s ongoing modernisation has essentially occurred along the lines of the Local Wars Doctrine.

But it’s still essential to place these doctrines and concepts within the notion of the overarching strategy: the advances in military capabilities are ultimately in furtherance of the broader political strategy of retaining the capacity at any stage of a conflict – particularly the opening stage – to inflict prohibitive military and economic costs on a more powerful enemy.

So in any military capability comparison or war-gaming, this has to be taken into account.

Finally, just a comment about Chinese thinking on air power:

As you would expect, the PLAAF has moved from thinking about air power being used to repel air and ground invaders over its continental territory (i.e., land based defence) towards deterrence, strategic strike at sea, and providing cover for landing operations.

So if you take the PLAAF’s concept of “integrated attack and defense” which is part of the PLA’s Active Defence posture, joint counter-air strike campaigns will take place alongside the Second Artillery’s anti-ship ballistic missile capabilities in order to defend China’s territorial and sovereignty claims, and limit the options available to the U.S. in terms of strike, access and maneuvering capabilities.

Likewise, it seems that much of Chinese thinking on air-craft carriers is to use them to provide air cover for landing operations within the South China Sea. Based on limited capabilities of the air-craft carriers and the planes they can service, experts in the US and India tell me that Chinese air-craft carriers will have further battle relevance beyond the South China Sea.

So in summary, the PLAAF is seen as an integrated part of China’s A2AD capabilities along with the PLAN and the Second Artillery. Remember that in the Active Defence doctrine, China needs to execute these capabilities beyond the First Island Chain (which stretches from Japan to Philippines to the north of Indonesia) in order to deter advances against it within the First Island Chain.

Of course, there is a lot we don’t know about the actual capabilities and battle-readiness of Chinese forces. They are pretty much untested beyond a couple of small operations some time ago: when Chinese forces captured the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974; when they occupied Mischief Reef in 1995.

Moreover, Chinese doctrine and concepts is deeply susceptible to miscalculation, not just in terms of their capacity to inflict prohibitive costs on the enemy, but also what the level of damage needed to constitute prohibitive costs might be. In other words, it will be very easy for the Chinese to incorrectly assess the political will of America during any crisis.

For our look at some of the same issues raised by John Lee see the following:

https://sldinfo.com/understanding-the-chinese-military-puzzle/

https://sldinfo.com/evolving-chinese-military-capabilities-the-pla-as-part-of-the-chinese-approach-to-globalization/

https://sldinfo.com/the-pla-goes-feet-wet-testing-the-pla-in-real-world-conditions/

https://sldinfo.com/flipbooks/StrategicInflectionPoints%20May%202012/

https://sldinfo.com/the-chinese-challenge/

https://sldinfo.com/the-evolution-of-prc-air-power-an-overview-from-retired-ltg-deptula/

This presentation is published with the permission of The Williams Foundation.