By Robbin Laird

Too often, the focus is upon Taiwan as a U.S.-Chinese problem or confrontation. Leaving aside the question of why the Communist Party ruling the mainland has any right to seize a free democracy, such a focus misses the question of who lives in the first island chain. It is not Americans: It is Filipinos and Japanese.

The Chinese threats are not about Taiwan but changing the world in their favor. Forget the “rules based order”: welcome the new authoritarian order. There is a NATO-Russian war in Ukraine: are we going to see a similar war in the Pacific?

One way to avoid this is to convince the Chinese leadership that this will never be a clean quick takeover of people who live in a free democracy. It will be the start of a major conflict, similar to what the Japanese did when they slaughtered the Chinese in 1938 at Shanghai.

Taiwan needs to be part of the wider strategic effort of the liberal democracies to rework their defense relationships so that Taiwan is not an isolated tidbit to be eaten by the Chinese dragon.

Ed Timperlake and I wrote about a possible way ahead along these lines in an article we wrote in December 2016. “Both the technology available to the United States and the policy shifts of core allies in the Pacific are enabling the forging of a deterrence in depth strategy. As Japan has focused on its extended defense, Australia upon the integration of its forces with a capability also for the extended defense of Australia and with U.S. forces focus on shaping a force to operate over the extended ranges of the Pacific, now is the time for a serious rebooting of the role of Taiwan in extended Pacific defense and security.”

As Taiwan looks to build its forces to enhance its ability to be resilient and part of a broader defense in depth strategy of the liberal democracies, the role of U.S. and allied defense industry is important but will only play its expanded role if old limiting practices of defense trade are modified, and the new technologies unleased by the autonomous revolution are fully embraced.

The question of re-working the role of U.S. defense industry in its cooperation with Taiwan has been highlighted by the first visit of a U.S. defense industrial delegation to Taiwan since 2019. Headed by Lt. General (Retired) “Stick” Rudder, a group of defense industrialists visited the island in May 2023 to support a broader conversation and cooperation between Taiwan and the United States in the defense industrial area.

An AP article published on 3 May 2023, highlighted the visit.

“Speaking at a public forum in Taiwan’s capital Taipei, retired Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder said the U.S. wants to be part of the defense capabilities of Taiwan and improve the supply chain resilience of the island. He also emphasized how critical the island’s position is for security.

“For the Asia-Pacific, I would offer there’s not another more important area in the world to maintain peace,” Rudder said Wednesday morning at the Taiwan-U.S. Defense Industry Forum.

“So (when) you hear ‘a free and open Indo-Pacific,’ this is a small part of ensuring that shared vision remains intact. We want to be part of the self-defense capabilities of Taiwan,” he said.

But what has been missed in the coverage of the visit was the broader point that the U.S. and the allies are changing their military strategy to one of distributed operations and are embracing new technologies, such as next generation autonomous systems to defend their nations and their forces dispersed and distributed throughout the Pacific. In other words, instead of looking at Taiwan with the eyes of the 1950s as an outpost to be defended, it is part of the first line in a defense in depth strategy for the liberal democratic order in the Pacific.

I talked with Rudder on 21 June 2023 about his take-aways concerning the current state of the relationship. One the one hand, there is the focus on FMS or foreign military sales efforts such as with the F-16 which are subject to slower than desired implementation and spare parts supplies. On the other hand, there is the possibility of expanded cooperation of asymmetric capabilities such as UAVs, and USVs in the self-defense of Taiwan. As the U.S. and its allies are working to build such capabilities, Taiwan could be an important partner in this effort.

This is not radically dissimilar from Australia as I write about in my new book on Australian defense. The Australians have favored FMS buys, but they are slow to roll out and the supply chain issue is crucial. Yet the Australians are looking to dramatically increase their ability to deploy the asymmetric weapons and platforms which Rudder highlighted.

When one looks at the defense of Taiwan, East of Taiwan, the democracies have significant defense capability. But west of Taiwan is void of such capability. That is why one should look to sea denial as a key aspect of the defense of Taiwan and the role, for example, of wolfpack USVs in disrupting the battle rhythm of the PRC forces can be facilitated by such weapon systems. Taiwan could well be the showcase of something which other liberal democracies in the Pacific might emulate.

This also raises an aspect of the defense challenge facing the democracies, namely, how do we collectively build an arsenal of democracy? This requires multiple production lines spread throughout the democracies, and certainly one should consider Taiwan as part of such an effort.

Rudder agreed. “What we really need more than one line for the systems that we’re building. And right now, our defense department acquisition laws mean that we down select one winner. And usually, one winner means one production line.”

We won’t get an arsenal of democracy this way. In other words, instead of thinking of Taiwan as a country of last resort in selling whatever FMS systems we are willing to sell, why not make them a player in building the new arsenal of democracy in the Pacific, certainly with regard to asymmetric or autonomous systems?

For my recent discussions with Aussies on the challenge of building an arsenal of democracy for the liberal democracies, see the following:

By Pierre Tran

Paris – Germany has kept the door open to France and Italy joining Berlin’s project for an extended European missile defense system in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a senior German government official said June 30.

“The European Sky Shield Initiative is open to all European partners, including France and Italy,” the German official said.

The Russian deadly incursion into Ukraine last year led the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz,   to sign in October a non-binding letter of intent with 14 Nato allies to pursue the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), an anti-missile system.

Switzerland said on July 4 it sought a place in that air defense system, just two days after Austria said it was seeking to join Sky Shield. The interest by two traditionally neutral nations was seen as pointing up the significance of the German-led project.

That weapons project, led by Berlin, rankled French president Emmanuel Macron, as the  system relied heavily on non-European weapons, namely the U.S. Raytheon Patriot missile for medium-range, and Israel Aerospace Industries Arrow-3 for long-range interception. The German Diehl Iris-T would be used to hit incoming short-range targets.

Macron saw that dependence on U.S. and Israeli weapons as a direct hit on his pursuit of the concept of European strategic autonomy, which called for orders for the European – including French – arms industry.

An order for the Israeli weapon is reported to be worth close to €4 billion ($4.4 billion).

“We need protection as soon as possible, not in 15 years,” the German official said when asked about Berlin buying the Israeli anti-intercontinental ballistic missile.

Sky Shield fits in with Nato, in which the U.S. holds privileged position.

“Nato considers ESSI to be in line with its Integrated Air and Missile Defense,” the official said.

The transatlantic military alliance is holding its two-day summit at Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11-12, and Ukraine’s request for membership is expected to be high on the agenda.

Macron has switched French policy tracks and backs Kyiv’s application to join Nato.  Previously Paris had kept Ukraine at arm’s length from the alliance, looking to keep the peace with Moscow. But the invasion of Ukraine has changed that softly-softly approach, as can be seen with Macron ordering delivery of the SAMP/T Mamba missile system and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian forces.

That Paris policy switch has sparked “incomprehension” with Berlin, afternoon daily Le Monde reported July 2.

No Mamba

Absence of the Franco-Italian medium-range SAMP/T weapon from the German Sky Shield plan rubbed industrial salt into the political wound. That European anti-missile system relies on the MBDA Aster missile and Thales Arabel radar, produced by the Eurosam joint venture.

Switzerland’s request to join Sky Shield followed Austria’s, while Denmark and Sweden said in February they sought to join the anti-missile system. The U.K. was among the 14 nations which signed the letter of intent.

France, Italy, and Poland have not joined the Sky Shield project, but Germany has not ruled out the nations signing up.

The partnership is open to all European nations, the German official said.

Cities which would be covered by the anti-missile protection are classified top secret.

Macron called June 19 for European allies to order European rather than American weapons at a conference on air defense and  anti-missile strategy, held on the first day of the Paris air show. That conference was seen in part as a Paris riposte to the Berlin project.

Macron called off a long-awaited three-day state visit to Germany which had been due to start on Sunday, amid deep concern over riots and unrest across France in response to the police shooting of a 17-year old boy of north African parents in the suburbs of the capital.

The head of state had to leave early on Friday a European Union summit in Brussels due to violent protest and vandalism in the streets across the nation, with public buildings and stores attacked when the sun went down.

Macron’s visit had been to mark the 60th anniversary of the bilateral Elysée treaty and close cooperation between France and Germany. The visit had aimed to strengthen ties between young French and Germans, in a bid to maintain close relations in future generations.

Meanwhile, Macron came under attack from the far right and far left for a perceived failure to calm the social turmoil at home.

The postponed trip to Germany came after Macron in March asking King Charles to desist from visiting France as his first foreign destination as the British head of state. A long running  strike of garbage collectors had left the streets of the capital in piles of stinking rubbish.

King Charles went instead to Berlin.

Mamba Upgrade

On the present SAMP/T Mamba, there is a “poor radar,” which has a shorter range than the Aster 30 missile, said a research note on the recent Paris air show from Agency Partners, an equity research firm. That “clear weakness” means a “short engagement time.”

The French armed forces ministry promoted an SAMP/T NG (new generation) version at the Eurosatory trade show for land weapons last year. This upgraded weapon consisted of new GF 300 radar with greater range of more than 350 km, and a longer range Aster Block 1 NT (new technology) missile capable of hitting ballistic missiles, with greater protection and better ergonomy for the command and control team.

Eurosam signed March 19 a contract for development of the Aster B1 NT missile.

That came after  a December 30 contract with the Occar procurement agency for almost 700  Aster missiles, in the 15, 30 Block 1, and Block 1 NT versions for the French and Italian armed forces, reported to be worth some €2 billion.

The upgraded Aster new generation version will continue internal competition with the  supply of distinct Leonardo and Thales radars to their respective client nations, and while this might offer “greater customer choice” in the open market, Agency Partners expressed scepticism on that approach.

Maiden Flight of Hypersonic Glider Missile

On missiles, France launched June 26 at 10 pm  its first test flight of an experimental hypersonic glide vehicle, dubbed V-Max. The manoeuvring missile, flying above Mach 5, was launched by rocket from the Biscarrosse test site, western France, operated by the Direction Générale de l’Armement procurement office.

Analysis of data received during maiden flight will lead to further experimental flights, the defense ministry said, and the missile carried technological innovation onboard.

Ariane Group, a specialist in space launchers, built the missile, and was backed by Onera, the research agency.