F-35B Lightning II aircraft conduct flight operations aboard HMS Prince of Wales during exercise Med Strike.
05.05.2025
F-35 Joint Program Office
Recently, the Polish Foreign Minister argued that Putin had awaken a sleeping giant in terms of European defense efforts. The commitment to 5% defense spending inclusive of 1 and 1/2 percent of GNP on defence related infrastructure will raise a number of analytical questions of who does what with what investments are made, notably with regard to infrastructure spending. We will focus on this issue in our analytical work in the months ahead.
But Pierre Tran recently attended the Paris Air Show and reports here on the significantly enhanced emphasis on defence systems at this year’s Paris Air Show.
By Pierre Tran
Le Bourget, France – The French media covered the 55th Paris air show with much attention on European rearmament, a news angle sharpened with President Emmanuel Macron flying June 20 to the show in a French air force A400M military transport plane.
The armed forces minister, procurement chief, and air chief of staff flanked the head of state and commander in chief as he walked off the aircraft, seen as sign of support for European military capability. Macron went on to make a keynote speech, calling on Europe to strengthen its space technology, seen of strategic significance, and led by China and the U.S.
A French navy H160 helicopter flew Macron to the previous show, two years ago, as Russian forces sought to seize Ukraine with force of arms.
The air show serves as a showcase for the French and international aerospace industry, and also to recruit sought after staff, to be trained and retained by contractors large and small.
This latest show, which ran June 16 to 22, was held under stricter security, with a pat down body search and personal ID check for the first time, on top of the standard bag search and body scan. French journalists noted a tougher application process for the press pass.
There would be “high security” at the show, Guillaume Faury, chair of the Gifas trade association, told a June 5 news conference on the air show. There was no prosperity without security, he said, and there was greater conflict in the world.
The “geostrategic setting” led to a stronger defense presence compared to previous shows, which had a lower military profile, Gifas chief executive Frédéric Parisot said.
There was rising tension from Israeli forces hunting down Hamas irregular fighters in the Gaza strip. Jerusalem opened a new front, striking June 13 nuclear and missile targets deep in Iran before agreeing a ceasefire with Teheran after 12 days of deadly airborne exchange.
Washington brokered a fragile ceasefire between Teheran and Jerusalem, after launching June 21 a surprise long-range attack with bunker buster bombs and submarine-launched cruise missiles, striking three nuclear targets in Iran, including a uranium enrichment plant.
The link between politics and weapons was spelled out again, with France ordering Gifas to cover up stands of five Israeli companies in the vast exhibition hall 3, to remove from sight weapons allegedly used against Palestinians in Gaza. Four other Israeli companies could show their wares, and the Israeli defense ministry stand could also stay open.
The French prime minister opened June 16 the show, and François Bayrou told reporters the situation in Gaza was “terrible,” and his administration ordered the Israeli stands to be covered up because they displayed “offensive weapons.”
Jerusalem fiercely rejected the criticism, with the Israeli defense ministry accusing France of acting out of political and commercial reasons.
While a legal challenge by a public campaign failed to force a shut down of the Israeli arms display, the French government succeeded – at least for some of the most sensitive weapons.
That official sanction echoed an attempt last year by France to exclude Israeli exhibitors at the Eurosatory trade show for land weapons. French courts reversed that government ban, following a legal challenge by the Franco-Israeli chamber of commerce. Israeli companies were able to exhibit at the Euronaval trade show later last year.
Flying displays are a highly dynamic piece of an air show, requiring flexibility on the show organizer. That was seen when a pair of cranes flew over the show when a Rafale was in flight display. That led to a F-35 flight to be postponed to the last in the day, while propeller-driven aircraft were brought up in the flying schedule.
There is French pride in the scale and scope of the air show, with aerial displays seen as a prestige item for trade and public audiences. A pared down display is noted, such as when Farnborough phased out its weekend display, when the show is open to the public.
A sign of the conflict times could be seen when the U.K. prime minister, Keir Starmer, said June 24 Britain would order 12 Lockheed Martin F-35A, a fighter that allows the Royal Air Force to deliver the U.S.-built B61 tactical nuclear bomb.
That fighter will extend the U.K.’s nuclear capability, presently resting solely on submarine launched U.S.-built Trident missiles, carrying British-built atomic warheads. A 12-strong F-35A squadron could cost “just over £900 mln ($1.1 bln),” daily The Guardian reported.
That order would bring London alongside Paris, which has fighters and submarines capable of firing tactical and strategic nuclear-tipped missiles, with the distinction that France insists on building both types of warhead, in pursuit of autonomy and supporting domestic industry.
Starmer spoke of ordering the F-35A at a shortened Nato summit, held in The Hague, The Netherlands, which U.S. President Donald Trump attended.
Nato members set June 25 a target of 5 pct of gross domestic product for military spending by 2035, up from a previous guideline of 2 pct. Spain withheld its pledge for the new target, prompting Trump to threaten doubling tariffs to punish Madrid. Spain is part of the E.U., so any trade deal would normally be part of a pact between Washington and the 27-strong E.U.
If Nato members do spend more on weapons and improve logistics, that would likely boost demand for aircraft, arms, and satellites. That might help the sales teams of shows such as Paris and Farnborough, its U.K. counterpart, as contractors chase orders.
There is a view that some Nato allies will find it hard to find the money, with nations such as France hobbled by hefty public debt and weak economic growth. French companies have pointed up a lack of arms orders from the administration, despite talk of a war economy.
One senior industry executive, however, said June 26 the French administration was placing orders and paying his company on time, so he had no complaints. The executive ran a medium sized company on an arms deal which runs for several years.
For French primes speaking of straitened times, air shows and trade events might gain in importance, offering industry and institutions a means to lobby the administration, reach out to clients and partners, while pitching to VIP foreign delegations, receiving close attention.
Onera, a state-backed research office, said June 10 a test flight of a French full-scale prototype of a hypersonic cruise missile was now planned to take place at the Biscarrosse test site operated by the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA) procurement office. The demonstrator was based on the Lea project, which Onera revealed in 2021 with the display of a sleek small-scale model.
Onera and MBDA, a European missile company, had planned to launch a Lea demonstrator at a U.S. base on the East Coast, backed by the U.S. air force and NASA, some years ago. It appears the U.S. launch did not take place, and the test has been brought to France.
The Onera stand at the air show included its Titans project, a study of concepts for the future combat air system (FCAS), looking at prospective weapons midway between cruise missile and drone, René Mathurin, director of defence programs, told the June 10 news conference.
Titans seeks to “transform conventional air combat capabilities,” by flying unmanned aircraft with varying levels of autonomy, fitted with mission modules for air combat, suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses, electronic warfare, and intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance,” Onera said.
Franck Leroy, the chairman of the Grand Est, a regional council, met the press June 11, setting out a campaign to attract companies and investors to the eastern part of France, in a bid to create 130,000 jobs. There was strong interest in the military, with two army helicopter bases in the region, for combat and transport operations. There was scope for local small and medium companies to provide service support.
Some 36,000 troops were based in the region, which borders Germany, which offered cross-border prospects for investment and industry.
Grand Est was inviting scientific researchers and higher education teachers from the U.S. and other nations to apply for residency in the region, the council said in a June 26 press statement. The council’s bid to attract foreign research and academic talent was inspired by the Stand Up for Scientists and Make Our Planet Great Again campaigns, and the Fulbright scholarship, Grand Est said.
The Swedish air force and FMV procurement office met the press at a smart hotel in the capital, on the eve of the air show opening
It was “very easy to draw the wrong conclusion,” brigadier general Lars Helmich of the FMV said, when asked about Pakistan’s claim of downing the Indian air force Rafale. More information was needed, he added.
Islamabad’s claim of shooting down the Rafale in air combat May 7 sparked strong international interest in the lessons learnt, with the Pakistani pilots flying the Chinese-built J-10 fighter, armed with Chinese-built missiles, to hit a Western-built fighter.
A French officer said June 26 there would have been much confusion in the skies over India and Pakistan, with maybe some 120 or so fighters locked in combat. Thorough preparation of the fighter pilots and airborne warning and control systems (Awacs) planes would have helped the Indian air force, the officer said.
Meanwhile, Sweden was looking to replace A109 training helicopters and NH90 transport helicopters, and a government announcement on the latter has yet to be made, an officer said.
The Swedish forces have recommended cancellation of the NH90 and replacement with other helicopters for the army and navy.
The Swedish air force was working hard to fit into Nato air command and the Nordic air power concept, since Stockholm joined the alliance 1-1/2 years ago, said major general Jonas Wikman, commander of the Swedish air force.
“We really feel the pressure,” he said, with a “huge transformation” in operational concept.
Operational tempo has picked up, with the air force performing more than 300 “alpha scramble” quick reaction alerts last year, more than in previous years, he said.
Embraer appeared to have a good air show, with the Brazilian aircraft builder announcing on the first day Portugal pledging to order a sixth KC-390 military transport plane, with an option for 10 more. That option allowed Lisbon to order the aircraft and pass it on to E.U. or Nato allies if allied nations wanted to boost air lift fleets.
The options put a marker down for a place on the production line.
Portugal ordered an initial batch of five KC-390 in 2019 in a deal worth €827 mln, with a first delivery in February 2023, Reuters reported.
Lithuania selected the KC-390, with a prospective order for three units, Embraer said in a June 18 statement.
“Lithuania has chosen Embraer Company for further negotiations and expects to finalize the acquisition contract in the coming months,” said Loreta Maskaliovienė, Vice Minister of National Defense of Lithuania, Embraer said.
The Netherlands signed a contract for an airborne medical evacuation unit for the KC-390, with options for seven more inflight hospital units, Embraer said June 17.
That Dutch deal followed an order for nine KC-390 The Netherlands signed in July last year at the Farnborough air show. That deal was a joint procurement, with five units for The Netherlands, and four for Austria.
Embraer invited some journalists for a flight on the KC-390 on Sunday before the show opened, and more reporters were invited to an evening cocktail reception on the Eiffel Tower. The Brazilian company was corporate sponsor on the lanyards for the show pass.
Did the KC-390 program reflect a “paradigm change” for Brazil, asked a July 2015 report from Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, a think tank.
The KC-390, launched in 2009, was a medium lift twin-jet which reflected Brazil’s ambition to cut dependence on foreign nations, supply defense equipment, pursue technological and industrial autonomy, launch programs under Brazilian prime contractorship, work with partner nations, and win export deals, the FRS report said. The report was titled Arms Production: Brazil in Search of Autonomy.
Saab took a step toward a contract with France, with the DGA signing June 18 a letter of intent with the Swedish company for two GlobalEye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) jets, with an option for two more.
The United Arab Emirates flew over one of its five-strong GlobalEye fleet for static display at the show.
A French deal for the GlobalEye has rankled Dassault Aviation executive chairman Eric Trappier, who sees procurement of the rival Canadian Bombardier business jet as a direct affront to the Falcon jet built at the Merignac factory, near Bordeaux, southwest France.
That Swedish spy plane flies the Saab Erieye radar fitted on a Bombardier Global 6000/6500 jet. The GlobalEye will replace the four-strong fleet of Boeing E-3F Airborne Warning and Control System (Awacs), which entered service in France in 1992.
France signed in 2010 a contract worth $466 mln for a mid-life upgrade of its U.S.-built Awacs fleet, and in 2017 upgraded the avionics to install a “glass cockpit.” That latter upgrade was expected to extend the life of the fleet to at least 2035.
The spy plane was part of an agreement signed at the show by the French armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, and his Swedish counterpart, Pal Jonson, the ministry said in a June 23 statement.
That bilateral pact set out a “road map,” which included Stockholm’s order for the MBDA Akeron anti-tank missile, and security of supply for weapons and explosives. The agreement included the Meteor air-to-air and Aster surface-to-air missile, as well as short-range missiles, the ministry said.
There was little sign of the Saab Gripen fighter, but there was little point sending one over as the show was effectively the special reserve of the Rafale, an executive close to the Swedish delegation said.
A U.S. air force F-35A and German air force Eurofighter Typhoon were among the fighters flying in the air displays at the show.
Turgis Gaillard, a French medium-sized company, placed on static display a version of its Aarok low-cost medium-altitude, long-endurance drone, with this model fitted with a conventional pilot’s canopy. This glass canopy, as used with a pilot in the cockpit, made this aircraft clearly distinct from the all metal combat drone displayed at the previous show, when it grabbed media attention.
Aarok had partnered with Thales to fit the AirMaster S radar, Turgis Gaillard said in a June 17 statement, headlining the “100 pct French” nature of its air surveillance capability.
There has been much discussion of a perceived need for French weapons to be “ITAR-free,” referring to the U.S. international traffic in arms regulations applied by the state department. French companies have sought to address clients’ concerns on Washington holding up foreign deals when U.S. parts need to be cleared.
Turgis Gaillard also displayed Foudre, or Thunder, a guided multiple rocket launcher system alongside the MALE drone, which was flanked by an Akeron long-range missile and unmarked weapons.
KNDS France, Delair, and EOS Technologie said June 17 they were launching on the export market a range of loitering munitions which could hit targets at range of two km to 100 km. These kamikaze drones with a deadly payload were developed from a weapon, the MV-25 Oskar, rushed to Ukraine for use against Russian troops. KNDS and Delair developed Oskar in less than two years and was now part of the four-strong Mataris range. That delivery was faster than the eight years previously seen as normal for bringing a new weapon to market, reporters heard. EOS was the partner for the medium range weapons, which could carry a
The French army was receiving the MX-10 Damocles, which was entering service in July 2025, KNDS said in a statement. The loitering munition had a 10 km range.
The opening of the show offered Airbus a red letter day, with France and Spain signing June 16 a letter of intent aimed at ensuring production of the Airbus A400M to the end of 2028.
Those key client nations were bringing forward planned orders, to allow Airbus to keep the factory at Seville, southern Spain, open, and buy time for the company to win export orders.
Paris and Madrid were bringing forward orders respectively for four and three units.
The A400M program accounted for more than 10,000 direct jobs in Europe, the French armed forces ministry said, of which 2,400 were in France and in more than 80 companies on the national territory, many of which were small and medium sized.
Back on the space trail, Dassault’s large exhibition stand in the cavernous hall 2A included a a small-scale model of a space plane, dubbed Vortex (Véhicule Orbital Réutilisable de Transport et d’Exploration). There were information panels on the wall, with English first, French second, setting out the main features of the spacecraft.
There was a clear headline: A Strategic Asset for Power and Autonomy.
The armed forces minister, Lécornu, and Trappier signed June 20 “an agreement to support the development of a spaceplane demonstrator,” the company said. That demonstrator for what was for now a science fiction vessel would be “the first step in an incremental and intrinsically dual roadmap for the development of a family of spaceplanes called Vortex.”
The U.S. determination to grab a piece of the European rearmament cake could be seen with a deal announced by Anduril and Rheinmetall, with the American and German industrial partners developing European versions of the Barracuda and Fury drones for the European market. The two companies would also look at adapting Anduril’s solid rocket motors for European missiles and rockets.
The air show’s flow of deals, real and prospective, was punctuated by a memorial ceremony attended by President Macron, marking the 1940 June 18 call to arms by the then army general Charles de Gaulle, calling on BBC radio the French nation to join the Resistance and fight against the Nazi occupation.
France’s deep sense of history can also be seen by a plaque which hangs at Le Bourget train station, giving honor to the Jews shipped from that rail station to Auschwitz death camp.
The featured image was generated by an AI program.
U.S. Marines with Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron (HMLA) 773, Marine Aircraft Group 29, 4th Marine Aircraft Wing, conduct flight and forward area refuel point operations during Integrated Training Exercise 3-25 at Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center, Twentynine Palms, California, June 6, 2025.
MCAGCC serves as the Marine Corps’ premier training venue for service-level exercises by providing a realistic multi-domain environment to prepare forces for success in peer and near-peer conflicts.
TWENTYNINE PALMS, CALIFORNIA
06.06.2025
Video by Sgt. Makayla Elizalde
Ukraine’s defense of its homeland has demonstrated a remarkable evolution in modern military strategy, showcasing how a defending nation can leverage both established military doctrine and cutting-edge innovation to counter a numerically superior adversary.
The Ukrainian approach represents a new paradigm in what we might call a hybrid operational force redesign capability for the “fight tonight force.”
Or the seamless integration of conventional Western weaponry with indigenous technological innovations.
At the core of Ukraine’s defensive capability lies a dual foundation.
Western-supplied conventional weapons have provided the essential backbone of their military resistance, offering the firepower and reliability needed to sustain prolonged defensive operations. These systems have proven their worth as the steady anchor of Ukrainian defense capabilities, providing the conventional military strength necessary to hold territory and repel advances.
However, it is Ukraine’s own innovations, particularly in drone warfare, that have captured international attention and redefined modern battlefield tactics.
Ukrainian forces have pioneered new approaches to unmanned systems that extend far beyond traditional military doctrine, creating novel applications that have surprised military analysts worldwide.
What sets Ukraine’s approach apart is not simply the use of advanced Western weapons or innovative drone technology in isolation, but rather their ability to effectively combine these two elements.
This integration has created a hybrid operational force redesign capability capability that maximizes the strengths of both conventional and unconventional systems.
The success of this a hybrid operational force redesign capability depends critically on effective command and control systems paired with advanced electronic warfare capabilities. These technological ecosystems serve as the nervous system that ties together disparate weapon systems, enabling coordinated operations that leverage both conventional firepower and innovative drone capabilities in synchronized attacks and defensive maneuvers.
Ukraine’s strategic situation illustrates a fundamental principle of military doctrine: the mathematical disadvantage faced by defensive forces. Traditional military theory suggests that successful offensive operations require a three-to-one superiority in forces. Ukraine finds itself in the inverse position – they are “the one, not the three” – facing numerically superior opposition while conducting defensive operations.
This numerical disadvantage has necessitated the development of innovative tactics that multiply the effectiveness of available forces.
By leveraging their a hybrid operational force redesign capability, Ukrainian forces have found ways to overcome traditional mathematical disadvantages through superior tactical innovation and technological integration.
Ukraine’s defensive strategy offers important lessons for military planners and defense analysts.
The conflict demonstrates that modern warfare increasingly favors forces that can rapidly adapt and integrate diverse technologies.
The Ukrainian model suggests that the future of warfare may belong to forces that can effectively blend established military capabilities with rapid innovation, supported by robust command and control networks that can coordinate complex, multi-domain operations.
This approach may prove particularly valuable for nations facing numerically superior adversaries, offering a potential pathway to effective defense through technological innovation and tactical creativity.
Ukraine’s defense represents more than just resistance to invasion.
Their approach embodies a fundamental shift in how modern warfare can be conducted. By combining Western conventional arms with indigenous innovations, particularly in drone warfare, and tying them together through sophisticated command and control systems, Ukraine has created a hybrid operational force redesign approach that maximizes defensive capabilities while minimizing traditional numerical disadvantages.
This approach may well define the future of asymmetric warfare, demonstrating that innovation, integration, and adaptive tactics can provide viable alternatives to traditional force-on-force confrontations.
The featured image was generated by an AI program.
U.S. Air Force Airmen assigned to the 354th Fighter Wing paticipate in Bamboo Eagle 25-1 at Naval Air Station Lemoore, Calif. The 354th participated in Bamboo Eagle to improve the wing’s ability to engage in Agile Combat Employment strategies that increase survivability and interfere with adversary calculus.
EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE, ALASKA
02.12.2025
Video by Airman 1st Class Spencer Hanson
354th Fighter Wing
Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web stands as one of the most audacious military operations of the 21st century. It estimated that 117 drones were coordinated across 4,300 kilometers, destroying $7 billion in Russian aircraft for under $120,000 in equipment costs
The operation’s success raises a provocative question: Could the world’s most technologically advanced military have pulled off the same feat?
The answer reveals a fundamental paradox at the heart of American defense capabilities.
Despite possessing vastly superior technology, resources, and global reach, the U.S. military likely could not have executed Operation Spider Web as Ukraine did.
This limitation stems not from technical inadequacy, but from the very institutional frameworks that make America’s military powerful in conventional warfare.
From a purely technical perspective, the United States possesses capabilities that dwarf what Ukraine demonstrated in Spider Web.
American military technology represents the pinnacle of defense innovation:
Yet despite these overwhelming technical advantages, the U.S. military system would struggle to replicate Spider Web’s innovative approach, cost-effectiveness, and operational agility.
The U.S. defense acquisition system, designed to ensure accountability and minimize risk, creates barriers that would make a Spider Web-style operation nearly impossible within existing frameworks.
Cost Multiplication Effect: What Ukraine accomplished for $120,000 would likely cost the U.S. military tens of millions of dollars. The Pentagon’s acquisition process would demand military-grade components, extensive testing protocols, contractor oversight, and compliance reviews that inflate costs exponentially. A simple commercial drone becomes a complex military system requiring years of development and validation.
Timeline Paralysis: Ukraine planned and executed Spider Web in 18 months. A comparable U.S. operation would require 5-10 years moving through standard acquisition phases: initial requirements definition, market research, request for proposals, contractor selection, development, testing, evaluation, and deployment. Each phase includes review boards, congressional oversight, and bureaucratic approvals that prioritize process over speed.
Risk Aversion Culture: The U.S. military-industrial complex gravitates toward proven, expensive solutions rather than innovative approaches that carry inherent risks. The careers of military officers and defense contractors depend on avoiding failures rather than achieving breakthrough successes, creating institutional incentives that discourage the kind of bold experimentation that characterized Ukrainian drone development.
Consider the contrast: Ukraine’s engineers trained AI targeting systems using museum aircraft displays and achieved 90-centimeter precision targeting. A U.S. military equivalent would require extensive modeling and simulation, live-fire testing ranges, safety reviews, and validation protocols that would take years and cost millions. Ultimately a system would be produced that might be marginally better but orders of magnitude more expensive.
America’s global leadership role creates legal and operational constraints that fundamentally limit the military’s operational flexibility compared to Ukraine’s desperate circumstances.
The most significant barrier to U.S. replication of Spider Web lies in what might be called the “innovation paradox.” The same institutional strengths that make the U.S. military dominant in conventional warfare create weaknesses in asymmetric, innovative operations.
Rather than attempting to replicate Spider Web directly, the U.S. military would likely pursue different approaches that leverage American conventional advantages:
Nonetheless, Ukraine’s drone warfare revolution highlights critical vulnerabilities in American military thinking and acquisition processes that extend far beyond the Spider Web operation itself.
The Spider Web case study suggests several reforms that could help the U.S. military capture some advantages of Ukrainian-style innovation while maintaining institutional strengths:
In short, Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web reveals a fundamental tension in modern military affairs: the institutional frameworks that make the U.S. military the world’s most powerful conventional force may simultaneously constrain its ability to conduct the kind of innovative, asymmetric operations that proved devastatingly effective against Russian forces.
This is not an indictment of American military capability, but rather recognition that different strategic circumstances require different institutional approaches.
The U.S. military’s strength lies in its ability to project conventional power globally with unmatched precision and effectiveness.
Ukraine’s strength emerged from necessity-driven innovation and institutional flexibility born of existential threat.
The challenge for American defense leaders is not to abandon the institutional strengths that make the U.S. military globally dominant, but to create pathways for the kind of rapid innovation and asymmetric thinking that Operation Spider Web demonstrated.
This might require accepting higher risks, tolerating failures, and embracing the kind of creative chaos that produced Ukraine’s drone warfare revolution.
Ultimately, Operation Spider Web offers the U.S. military not a template to copy, but a mirror reflecting both the strengths and limitations of American institutional approaches to warfare.
The question is whether American defense institutions can evolve to capture the advantages of Ukrainian-style innovation while maintaining the conventional superiority that underpins global security.
In an era where $120,000 operations can achieve strategic effects previously requiring billions in military investment, the nation that masters this balance may hold decisive advantages in future conflicts.
Ukraine has shown what’s possible when institutional constraints are swept away by existential necessity.
The challenge for America is achieving similar innovation without requiring similar desperation.
The featued image was generated by an AI program.
By Robbin Laird
The recent operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion represent the culmination of decades of strategic airpower investment, demonstrating how prescient weapons development from the early 2000s enabled decisive military options in 2025.
However, these successes have exposed critical capacity limitations that require immediate attention to maintain credible deterrence in an increasingly multipolar world.
The development of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) began in 2004 as a direct response to Iran’s strategic decision to bury its nuclear infrastructure deep underground.
By 2010, the strategic calculus driving MOP development had crystallized around a specific challenge. Iran, learning from Israel’s successful strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s nuclear facility in 2007, had embarked on a different approach to nuclear development.
Rather than building vulnerable above-ground facilities, Iran was constructing its most critical nuclear infrastructure deep underground, protected by hundreds of feet of rock and reinforced concrete.
Major General C.R. Davis, who led weapons development at Eglin Air Force Base, exemplified the forward-thinking approach needed for this challenge. This created what Major General Davis described in 2010 as a fundamental challenge in weapons development: “This process must start with future target set playing a key role in leading the design process. The process must not start with a set of constraints defined by specific legacy platform dimensions.”
The MOP’s development timeline reveals the prescient nature of this investment:
In the case of the MOP, the anticipation was exactly right. The weapon system was developed specifically with Iran’s nuclear program in mind, and when diplomatic efforts failed to prevent Iran’s nuclear advancement, the military option was ready.
Paralleling U.S. weapons development, Israeli defense leaders recognized the transformational potential of fifth-generation aircraft. In a prescient 2010 interview, retired General Herzl Bodinger, former Chief of the Israeli Air Force, articulated the need for revolutionary rather than evolutionary capabilities.
General Bodinger: “There comes a time that you have to make a leap forward in combat capability which we plan to do with the F-35.”
His insights about the changing threat environment proved remarkably accurate:
“The effort is to provide new capabilities against our aircraft and to do so by using various means including, ground-to-air missiles of different kinds. And against the ability of Israel to retaliate, and to attack this very small country, a country with no strategic depth. Our adversaries are relying on the proliferation of missiles, both surface-to-air and the ground-to-ground to prevail… So, the correct way to go, which we watched very carefully, was what the F-117 introduced at first. The idea of low observable and low radar cross section, and it really looks a newer way to go.”
“For us, this will be the F-35. Because it can lead the way, and it can reach the targets. It can fly over any point over the Middle East, and strike any target.”
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion demonstrated the strategic value of its F-35 investment.
Just after midnight on June 13, 2025, an Israeli operation codenamed Rising Lion unfolded in two distinct but mutually reinforcing acts.
First came swarms of small explosive drones that Israeli commandos had reportedly pre-positioned inside Iran months earlier, striking air-defense radars and communications nodes, while decoying attention toward Tehran’s western approaches.
Minutes later, over 200 Israeli fighter aircraft — many of them F-35 Adirs carrying standoff munitions — conducted precision strikes against more than 100 nuclear and military targets across Iran, including senior military leaders.
The operation showcased several technological advances:
Nine days after Rising Lion, the United States launched Operation Midnight Hammer, demonstrating the maturation of capabilities developed over two decades.
The operation included more than 125 US aircraft, “dozens” of aerial refueling tankers, a guided missile submarine and approximately 75 precision guided weapons… Caine said the mission, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, included seven B-2 Spirit bombers that flew east from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to Iran.
At about 6:40 p.m. ET, or 2:10 a.m. in Iran, the lead B-2 dropped two “bunker-buster” bombs known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, on the site at Fordo… Over the next 25 minutes, Caine said, a total of 14 MOPs would be dropped on targets at Fordo and Natanz.
More than 125 aircraft, including 7 B-2 stealth bombers, snuck into Iran while other B-2s were sent to Guam as decoys… In fact, two flights of B-2 Spirits, callsigns MYTEE 11 flight and MYTEE 21 flight, each comprising four aircraft, departed from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, in the early hours of Jun. 21, 2025. Their destination was confirmed as Andersen Air Force Base, located on the Pacific island of Guam.
Despite the operational success, both operations reveal critical limitations that threaten future deterrence credibility.
Yet what the American public didn’t see was this: That one-day operation maxed out our available long-range stealth strike capability. The U.S. Air Force only fields 19 B-2 bombers, and they are more than 30 years old. Although the B-52 fleet remains a workhorse, it just turned 73 years old. Also, a good percentage of our GBU-57 bunker-buster stockpile was used in a single night.
Today, the U.S. Air Force is the oldest, the smallest and the least ready in its history. That’s not an opinion — it’s a fact and a strategic liability. Over 30 years of underinvestment in Air Force modernization and spares has left us dangerously thin in aircraft, munitions and trained crews.
The contrast in readiness rates highlights the importance of sustained investment: Israeli F-35 fleet: Nearly 90% readiness rate with the U.S. F-35 fleet: Slightly above 50% readiness rate.
According to a recent essay by my friend General Deptula and Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), there is a clear need to accelerate and scale the B-21 Raider program. We need to dramatically grow our F-35 inventory — aircraft that proved pivotal in gaining air superiority over Iran. New types like Collaborative Combat Aircraft will also prove crucial. We need to build munitions stockpiles that can support more than a one-night raid.
Operation Midnight Hammer proved what American airmen can do. Now it’s time for Congress to prove that it understands what’s at stake. America must not let this stunning success become a historical footnote because we failed to prepare for what comes next.
The convergence of strategic vision from the 2000s with operational reality in 2025 demonstrates both the power of prescient defense investment and the critical need for sustained modernization. While Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer showcased unparalleled technological superiority, they also revealed capacity constraints that threaten future deterrence credibility.
The path forward requires recognizing these operations not as the culmination of past investments, but as the foundation for an essential expansion of airpower capabilities in an increasingly dangerous multipolar world. The president needs options, and airpower provides those options—but only if the capacity exists to sustain them beyond a single night of operations.
Featured image of an historical moment: Weapon specialists gather in front of a mock up of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator and the B-2 weapons load trainer Dec. 18 at Whitman Air Force Base, Mo. U.S. Air Force photo.
Also, see the following:
From Development to Deployment: The GBU-57 MOP’s Journey from Eglin AFB to Iran
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5372479-air-force-funding-dollars/
Video made to celebrate the 35th Anniversary of the Air Force Special Operations Command on May 22, 2025.
HILL AFB, UTAH
05.19.2025
Video by Staff Sgt. Tristan Biese and Airman 1st Class Jamie Echols
2D Audiovisual Squadron