By Robbin Laird
I have been coming to Australia since 2014 and writing the seminar reports for the Sir Richard Williams Foundation bi-annual seminar reports.
I have done so because of my deep commitment to the U.S.-Australian relationship but more generally because of my concern with the rise of multi-polar authoritarianism and its threat to our democratic way of life.
I spent much of my life dealing with the Soviet threat to Europe and the West and have spent much of my life in Europe dealing with this challenge.
I have been part of or dealt with many U.S. administrations over the years and am used to the ebbs and flows of policies and always amazed at how dominant the last hour’s judgement passes for strategic historical narrative.
But what is not to be missed is the shift from the bipolar world of the Soviet Union and the United States to the globalization marble cake of democracies, authoritarian powers, and the growth of a new Europe heavily influenced by migration from the Middle East.
What has been fascinating is the rise of China and the narrative spun from President Xi and his mates.
My interlocutor with regard to this dynamic was my friend Harald Malmgren who unfortunately died earlier this year. He chronicled the dynamic changes in the past twenty years in China, its economic reforms, and the transmutation of the economic results of these reforms into the new variant of the Chinese imperial reach in the form of Xi ism.
Probably no greater anomaly is the Chinese passing themselves off as a poor country of the global south and a leader of the BRICS.
And what I found fascinating this year has been the absolute bravado of the Chinese government with regard to Australia.
No longer remotely covering its game, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has warned Australia that they should not increase their defense capabilities because China was only building “normal” military power.
You will be glad to know that Australia should not follow the dangerous NATO path of increasing defense spending.
The Ambassador assures us:: “China unwaveringly adheres to a defensive national defence policy, with military spending accounting for just 1.5 per cent of its GDP. It is far below the global average and paling in comparison to certain hegemons or their allies and partners. On peace and security, China has the best track record among major countries. In recent years, having observed the profound shifts unseen in a century, President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilisation Initiative, advocating for shared global development, collective security and dialogue among civilisations. China has once again contributed its wisdom, solutions and strength to world peace and development.”
And he reminds Australia of how important China is to Australia’s prosperity and should go on playing their role as a raw materials provider the Chinese non-hegomon.
“China and Australia are important economic and trade partners, with highly complementary economic structures. Australia’s abundant energy and mineral resources, along with its distinctive agricultural products, have found a vast market of 1.4 billion consumers in China.”
Another manifestation of Chinese bravado with regard to Australia designed to remind Aussies to stay in their place was manifested earlier this year in a dramatic moment when the Chinese Navy circumnavigated Australia playing target practice.
As Justin Bassi, the Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute put it:
“Australia must stop being surprised by every new Chinese military or hybrid warfare development. Beijing’s confidence is growing in all domains, including cyberspace. With intrusions known as Volt Typhoon, China’s intelligence agencies were outed in 2023 as having pre-positioned malware for disrupting and destroying our critical infrastructure. This should also be seen as a rehearsal for later cyber moves.
“And now, for the first time in the modern era, we have seen a potential adversary rehearse its wartime kinetic strategy against Australia. Yes, the Japanese did surveillance and intelligence gathering before World War II, but this circumnavigation with live-fire exercises takes us well beyond intelligence collection. Beijing has been undertaking “intelligence preparation of the battlespace” for some time with ships it frequently sends to Australian waters to observe our exercises or to conduct oceanographic studies (which improve submarine operations).”
The Chinese “Great White Fleet” came and went but the demonstrated effect was clearly evident.
For much of the past two decades, China’s economic reforms created opportunities for mutually beneficial relationships with democratic nations. Australia, in particular, benefited enormously from China’s insatiable appetite for raw materials, with the resources boom fundamentally reshaping Australia’s economic landscape.
However, what many observers failed to anticipate was how Beijing would leverage its economic success to fuel broader imperial ambitions.
The transformation from Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic economic reforms to Xi Jinping’s assertive nationalism represents more than a change in leadership.
It signals a fundamental shift in China’s relationship with the world.
Under Xi’s leadership, China has moved from “hiding its light under a bushel” to actively projecting power and influence across the globe.
This new confidence manifests in various ways, from the Belt and Road Initiative to increasingly aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
One of the most striking aspects of China’s current global posture is the paradox between its actions and its rhetoric.
Despite being the world’s second-largest economy with a military budget that rivals major powers, China continues to position itself as a developing nation and champion of the Global South.
This narrative allows Beijing to claim moral authority while simultaneously pursuing policies that many would associate with the rise of a major power seeking to remake the world in its image.
The BRICS grouping exemplifies this contradiction.
While China presents itself as a leader of developing nations seeking to challenge Western dominance, its own behavior increasingly resembles that of a traditional imperial power.
This disconnect between rhetoric and reality has become a defining feature of contemporary Chinese diplomacy.
Australia’s experience with Chinese assertiveness provides a case study in how Beijing approaches relationships with middle powers that it perceives as strategic competitors.
The transformation has been dramatic and swift.
Where once Chinese officials spoke in diplomatic euphemisms and maintained the pretense of mutual respect, recent years have witnessed unprecedented directness in Chinese messaging to Australia.
The Chinese ambassador’s recent warning to Australia about increasing its defense capabilities represents a remarkable departure from traditional diplomatic norms.
For a foreign ambassador to essentially dictate to a sovereign nation what military capabilities it should or should not develop crosses lines that have been respected for centuries in international relations.
The audacity of such statements reflects a level of confidence – or perhaps overconfidence – that would have been unthinkable even a decade ago.
The most dramatic manifestation of this new assertiveness came with what can only be described as a modern version of the Great White Fleet – China’s naval circumnavigation of Australia. This was not merely a routine naval exercise but a deliberate demonstration of power projection capabilities. The fact that Chinese naval vessels conducted what appeared to be target practice during this voyage sends an unmistakable message about Beijing’s military reach and intentions.
This naval demonstration serves multiple purposes for China. Domestically, it projects strength and reinforces the narrative of China as a rising power capable of challenging Western dominance. Internationally, it serves as both a warning to Australia and a signal to other regional powers about China’s growing capabilities and willingness to use them.
The Chinese approach to Australia reflects broader patterns in Beijing’s international behavior. From the economic coercion of South Korea over the THAAD missile defense system to the military confrontations in the South China Sea, China increasingly employs a combination of economic pressure and military intimidation to achieve its objectives.
This represents a fundamental challenge to the liberal international order that has underpinned global stability since World War II. The rules-based system that Australia and its allies have championed assumes that nations will resolve disputes through dialogue and international law, not through displays of military force or economic coercion.
Australia’s response to Chinese assertiveness has been multifaceted, involving both domestic capability building and strengthening of international partnerships. The AUKUS agreement with the United States and United Kingdom represents the most significant manifestation of this approach, providing Australia with access to advanced military technologies while deepening defense cooperation with key allies.
However, the challenge extends beyond military capabilities. China’s approach combines economic, diplomatic, and military tools in ways that require equally comprehensive responses. This includes everything from supply chain diversification to information warfare defense to diplomatic coalition building.
The current tensions between China and Australia reflect broader questions about the future of international relations in an era of renewed major power competition. The bipolar clarity of the Cold War has given way to a more complex and potentially more dangerous multipolar world where the rules of engagement are still being written.
For Australia, managing this relationship requires careful balance between deterrence and diplomacy, between alliance solidarity and economic pragmatism. The stakes could not be higher – they involve nothing less than the preservation of Australian sovereignty and the maintenance of the regional stability that has enabled decades of prosperity.
The transformation of China from economic partner to strategic competitor represents one of the defining challenges of our time. The bravado displayed by Chinese officials toward Australia signals a new phase in this relationship, one where diplomatic niceties have been replaced by frank displays of power and intention.
Understanding this shift requires moving beyond the last hour’s headlines to grasp the deeper strategic currents reshaping the Indo-Pacific. The challenge for Australia and its allies is to respond to this new reality while preserving the values and institutions that have served them well for decades. The choices made in the coming years will determine whether the region continues on a path toward greater cooperation or slides toward confrontation and conflict.
The Chinese circumnavigation of Australia was more than a naval exercise – it was a statement of intent.
How Australia and its allies respond to that statement will shape the evolving strategic landscape in the near to mid term.
Also, see the following:
China’s navy sends a steady drumbeat of ships around Australia
The Emergence of the Multi-Polar Authoritarian World: Looking Back from 2024
Assessing Global Change: Strategic Perspectives of Dr. Harald Malmgren
