COVID-19 Crisis: Geopolitical Implications for Australia

05/08/2020

By Paul Dibb

The coronavirus pandemic will affect the power of countries in different ways. The biggest impact will be reductions in the economic, and therefore military, strength and relative power of competing major states.

The American historian Walter Russell Mead says that ‘the balance of world power could change significantly as some nations recover with relative speed, while others face longer and deeper social and political crises’.

Henry Kissinger’s view is that ‘the world will never be the same after the coronavirus’. He stresses the need for the democracies to defend and sustain the liberal world order. A retreat from ‘balancing power with legitimacy’ will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. The challenge for world leaders is to manage this crisis while building the future, he says, and ‘failure to do so could set the world on fire’.

Most importantly, the pandemic has widened the confrontation between the US and China, with uncertain results for Australia.

China stands to be a loser, not because its economic power won’t bounce back, but because its ideology forced this pandemic on the rest of the world when it could have been contained at the very outset. By suppressing information about the outbreak in Wuhan, the authorities lost the world at least four to six vital weeks when Beijing could have contained what is now an unprecedented global disaster.

China had been warned about the origins of the 2003 SARS epidemic, which, like the coronavirus, started in a major Chinese city. In both instances, the virus appears to have been transmitted to humans from wild animals sold in China’s wet markets. The leaders from President Xi Jinping down will carry the legacy of their denial and repression as a millstone that will be long remembered outside China as causing large numbers of unnecessary deaths worldwide.

In one fell blow, China has fatally undermined the advantages of globalisation—not only in a health sense, but also in Western countries’ dependence on China for medical drugs and equipment. Countries such as the US will diversify away from such reliance on China, even if that increases costs.

America’s reputation has also been damaged, by its inability to provide leadership in arguably the worst crisis since the end of the World War II. Allan Gyngell, a former head of Australia’s Office of National Assessments, has said that the US ‘looks irrevocably weakened as a global leader’. While China is now belatedly ‘offering its resources and experience in handling the virus to build relationships with other countries’, including in Europe, he notes that the US is ‘absent from any international leadership’.

President Donald Trump has failed to provide consistent and credible responses as the crisis has unfolded.

Rather than prompting a multilateral response, the Covid-19 crisis has ramped up extreme nationalism and harsh border-protection measures as the virus spread rapidly from one country to another. Nations are becoming acutely introverted as they give absolute priority to staving off massive deaths and the threat of calamitous economic damage, and even collapse for some.

In the longer term, this pandemic will likely fade away and most, but not all, advanced economies will snap back into economic growth. But it will be the most damaging crisis by far that our populations have experienced. The remarkably sudden and abrupt onset of this calamity will lead to greater uncertainty, and even fear, about our futures.

Australia will find itself weaker in the post-pandemic world. Serious economic damage may well have a long-term impact on cohesion and trust in our society. The reputation of our American ally has been badly damaged. And it remains to be seen whether we should allow our trade with China to resume its previous predominance.

A major lesson we should learn is to diversify our economic relationships and become more self-reliant, including in terms of our national security. This will involve a radical rethinking of the credible circumstances in which we will have to take the lead during security crises in our region without American involvement.

We will need to re-examine our vulnerabilities in such key areas as fuel supplies, critical infrastructure, and protective and offensive cyber resources. We should rapidly develop a new strategic posture, giving high priority to long-range missile attack capabilities to deter any power from threatening our strategic space.

A further serious geopolitical issue should not be underrated. It’s highly likely that neighbouring countries, critically important to us strategically, will suffer severe structural damage to their societies and economies. The health systems of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu may be overwhelmed, with very high death rates.

They will need our help to fight this virus and to restructure their economies. Australia and New Zealand should lead the way. If we don’t, China will probably step in and offer massive economic and medical assistance as it seeks to entrench a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, which will directly threaten our own security.

The future of the democracies in Australia’s primary area of strategic interest to our north and east must deeply concern Australian policy planners. We should ensure that our natural focus on our own serious problems doesn’t lead us into the trap of isolationism.

Indonesia, with over 270 million people, and Papua New Guinea, with nearly 8 million, must be priorities. If the coronavirus overwhelms their potentially fragile societies, we should be prepared to contribute generously to a prolonged and expensive effort to rebuild their health systems and economies. It’s not in Australia’s interests to see such strategically crucial neighbours collapse.

Australia’s former ambassador to Indonesia John McCarthy believes that the Covid-19 crisis could fuel support for extremist groups in Indonesia and place the nation’s stability at risk. We need to think carefully about the geopolitical impact of the virus on countries in our immediate region and give it our highest priority.

The nation-state has decisively reasserted itself as a prime actor in the global fight against Covid-19. There will be much greater calls for self-reliance, but as the international community becomes more fractious and the liberal order recedes, we must not lurch into a new bout of introversion.

Paul Dibb is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University.

Featured Image: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images.

This article was published by ASPI on April 21, 2020.

 

Operation Solania

Operation Solania is the Australian Defence Force (ADF) contribution to regional security in partnership with the Pacific Island nations.

It also supports Operations Kuru Kuru, Island Chief, Tui Moana and Rai Balang, which are coordinated maritime surveillance and patrol operations run by the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA), to detect and deter illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing activities.

The ADF’s contribution consists of Royal Australian Air Force B300 King Air and C-27J Spartan aircraft and the Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Maryborough.

Australian Department of Defence

April 1, 2020

Artificial Intelligence Enabled Airborne Search and Rescue

05/07/2020

By Ms Samara Kitchener

Airborne search and rescue is an expensive and demanding task, but what if there was a better way?

AI-Search, Defence’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) prototype to transform airborne search and rescue, is now in its second phase of development.

The prototype is a collaboration between the Royal Australian Air Force’s Plan Jericho, Warfare Innovation Navy Branch and Air Mobility Group’s 35 Squadron. The system, which combines a sensor and processor, is highly portable and has the potential to enable any aircraft, including Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), vehicles or vessels to become an improvised search and rescue platform.

A recent C-27J Spartan sortie from RAAF Base Amberley off the coast of Stradbroke Island, with the assistance of the Australian Volunteer Coast Guard, helped evaluate the AI-Search algorithm to recognise a life raft and other waterborne vessels. This sortie was the second of several phases to develop and evaluate this proof of concept.

The AI-Search algorithms are being developed by budding machine learning expert, Lieutenant Harry Hubbert from the Warfare Innovation Navy Branch.

“During the sortie, we had a few GoPro sensors rigged up to detect a life raft and two algorithmic approaches working together to increase accuracy and the likelihood of a detection,” Lieutenant Hubbert said.

“This sortie was pretty challenging as the life raft was upside down, making it harder to see for both the human eye and the AI-Search sensors.

“The sensors are trained to detect an orange top, rather than a black top, but the AI-Search still had a 70 per cent detection rate, compared to the human detection rate of around 50 per cent.

“The 30 per cent AI-Search non-detections happened when there was low contrast between dark water and the black underside of the life raft, and the good news is that we had no false positives.”

Flying Officer Katherine Mitchell, piloting the aircraft as part of a search and rescue training exercise said that it was hard to see the upside-down life raft.

“We barely saw it 50 per cent of the time,” Flying Officer Mitchell said.

“AI-Search is already picking up more than what we are seeing, it’s incredible and it doesn’t get fatigued.”

Wing Commander Michael Gan, Plan Jericho’s AI lead said that they are now taking their learnings, finding the strengths and weaknesses, and iterating the next version.”

“The next phase will involve testing different sensor and processor combinations in a range of environmental conditions, with the potential of testing on a range of aircraft, including UAS,” Wing Commander Gan said.

This article was published by the Royal Australian Navy on April 21, 2020.

 

WestPac Exercise Tests ACE Approach: Highlights USAF Role in Maritime Operations

05/06/2020

The USAF led a joint exercise in January 2020 focused on WestPac. The exercise had the stated purpose of distributing airpower throughout the operational area and working integratability to shape the desired combat effect.

But not overtly noted in the official statements was the growing concern and focus which the USAF, working with the US Navy and the USMC, and where relevant the US Army, on dealing with a major threat to its operational basing — the maritime strike threat from Russia and China in the Pacific.

When the B-21 comes to the force, it will have a significant role in the reworking of the kill web approach to dealing with the air as well as maritime strike threats to USAF operational basing.

Notably, when we visited MAWTS-1, USAF officers had become regular visitors to work with the Marine Corps Aviation on best ways to do expeditionary basing and operations.

With the US Navy highlighting a distributed maritime operations approach along with the USAF highlighting its ACE approach, a key question is how these will dovetail and shape an effective kill web capability in the Indo-Pacific region?

With the two services clearly focused on ensuring their capabilities to work integrated distributed operations, how do they view the strategic direction they would most like to see from the USMC? What kind of mobile basing and expeditionary operations will be best aligned with where the USAF and the US Navy are shaping their strategic trajectories in their warfighting approaches?

Because the Indo-Pacific is not primarily a land theater of operations for the United States, what roles for the US Army are most supportive of the evolving air-maritime kill web approach?

Given the defense modernization trajectories of U.S. allies in the region, notably our most important ones in the air-maritime domain, Japan and Australia, how best to ensure synergy among national approaches?

An 18th Wing Public Affairs release on January 10, 2020 highlighted the exercise as follows:

KADENA AIR BASE, Japan — More than 60 aircraft and 300 personnel from the U.S. Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marine Corps participated in 18th Wing’s first WestPac Rumrunner exercise Jan. 10, 2020.

With the evolving security environment in the Indo-Pacific and to further support a safe and secure region, the 18th Wing spent months designing WestPac Rumrunner as an exercise to train counter air capabilities and strengthen joint interoperability. In addition to air tactics and joint interoperability, Airmen were charged with ensuring continuous airpower by using tactics derived from Pacific Air Force’s agile combat employment concept of operations, or ACE.

“As we executed this first iteration of Rumrunner, the exercise development team monitored how well our distributed joint forces came together and applied elements of ACE to disperse, recover, and rapidly resume operations,” said Capt. Brian Davis, 67th Fighter Squadron F-15C evaluator pilot and exercise director for WestPac Rumrunner. “The Rumrunner team looks forward to how we will continue to evolve and hone our procedures in the future.”

As the largest combat wing in the U.S. Air Force, Kadena Air Base was able to deploy a wide array of aircraft to simulate a realistic training scenario along with support from joint forces. The adversary air force primarily consisted of the Navy’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and Air Force’s F-15C Eagles, but the home team brought overwhelming joint capabilities to deny the adversarial advance.

F-15Cs defended the airspace and the KC-135 Stratotanker provided aerial refueling, while the 353rd Special Operations Group’s MC-130 Commando II dramatically extended the range and combat capabilities within the battlespace.

But, most unique to this exercise was the air-to-air and air-to-ground command and control provided by the Air Force’s E-3 Sentry, Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye, and 18th Wing’s 623rd Air Control Squadron, all of whom worked seamlessly to ensure battlespace situational awareness while expertly handing-off key targeting information to the U.S. Army’s 1-1 Air Defense Artillery’s Patriot surface-to-air missile battery. Marine Air Control Squadron-4 helped track the operations and were able to test integration capabilities for their systems at Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Japan.

“My unit and I were excited to be participating in a joint large force mission of this type. We had the unique opportunity to work with the Army ADA through the 623rd ACS to integrate as a cohesive air defense team,” said Capt. Shawn Storey, 961st Airborne Air Control Squadron. “This exercise delivered a great opportunity to plan, execute and debrief in person to develop relationships and hone our joint integration, communications and execution skills face-to-face.”

As part of the ACE strategy, to extend and improve the availability of aircraft during a contingency, Air Force maintenance Airmen were positioned on the ground at MCAS Futenma to provide a quick refuel so the aircraft could swiftly be launched and returned to the fight.

“The ACE concepts being developed are not confined by current maintenance doctrine or tactics,” explained Lt. Col. Johnny West, 18th Maintenance Group deputy commander. “Our senior leaders are encouraging maintainers and logisticians to be more creative and assertive at lower levels to overcome generation and re-generation limitations that could occur in a highly-contested environment,” he said. “Today’s Rumrunner exercise allowed us to practice operating in a simulated austere environment, which is fundamental to the ACE concept, and our maintainers successfully refueled F-15s and launched them back into the air.”

Overall, Brig. Gen. Joel L. Carey, 18th Wing commander, described WestPac Rumrunner as a success and a valuable learning tool for the U.S. Pacific Air Forces and joint services.

“I couldn’t be more proud of our efforts today,” said Gen. Carey. “This event was a big win for us in the Pacific. Being able to test our ACE capabilities with our joint partners highlights the importance of interoperability and the capabilities of our Airmen and sister services. Working in conjunction with the Navy, Army and Marine Corps was crucial to the success of Rumrunner and its ability to be a powerful learning tool moving forward.”

Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 131 at Red Flag 20-1

Growler aircraft assigned to Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 131 at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Washington, takes off during Red Flag 20-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Jan. 27, 2020.

The Growler is a derivative of the F/A-18 Hornet, the US Navy’s maritime strike aircraft.

Its mission is mainly electronic attack and suppression of enemy air defenses.

Red Flag is the U.S. Air Force’s premier air-to-air combat training exercise, which provides aircrews the experiences of multiple, intensive air combat sorties in the safety of a training environment.

Known as the Lancers, VAQ 131 is a U.S. Navy tactical jet aircraft squadron specializing in kinetic and non-kinetic Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses.

(U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Dwane R. Young)

Shaping A Way Ahead for the Hawkeye/ Stingray Cluster in the Integratable Carrier Air Wing

By Robbin Laird

In my discussions earlier this year in San Diego with Vice Admiral Miller, we focused on the dynamics of change within and beyond the carrier air wing.

In that discussion, what was highlighted was a way to look at the shift from a legacy approach to the kill web approach, namely, the shift from the integrated to the integratable air wing.

That discussion highlighted that what is underway is a shift from integrating the air wing around relatively modest and sequential modernization efforts for the core platforms to a robust transformation process in which new assets enter the force and create a swirl of transformation opportunities, challenges, and pressures.

We discussed what might be called clusters of innovation, such as would be introduced as the MQ-25A Stingray comes onboard the carrier. In effect, the MQ-25 will be a stakeholder in the evolving C2/ISR capabilities empowering the entire combat force, part of what, in my view, is really 6th generation capabilities, namely enhancing the power to distribute and integrate a force as well as to operate more effectively at the tactical edge.

From this point of view, the MQ-25 will entail changes to the legacy air fleet, changes in the con-ops of the entire CVW and trigger further changes with regard to how the C2/ISR dynamic shapes the evolution of the CVW and the joint force.

The systems to be put onto the MQ-25 will be driven by overall changes in the C2/ISR force.

The cluster of innovation with the coming of the MQ-25A is being led by the transition from the legacy Hawkeye to the Aerial Refueling modified E-2D (AR) Advanced Hawkeye, which provides a game changing capability to a carrier air wing through advanced sensors & C2 networking capabilities, persistent presence, and greater operational reach.

That point was driven home to me in a discussion with CDR Christopher “Mullet” Hulitt, head of “CAEWWS,” the Navy’s airborne command & control weapons school located at Naval Aviation Warfighting Development Center (NAWDC) at Naval Air Station Fallon.

As the cluster evolves, the notion of a platform-centric functional delivery of airborne early warning and battle management shifts to a wider notion of providing support to the distributed integrated combat force which flew off of the carrier and adjacent capabilities working with the air maritime deployed kill web.

We discussed a number of issues, and while I will not quote the CDR directly, I will highlight a number of takeaways from our conversation which provide insights into shaping a way ahead in the crafting, training and further developing of the integratable air wing.

The first takeaway is precisely the emergence of a different approach from the legacy Hawkeye to a new operational and training configuration.

With the coming of the MQ-25A Stingray and emerging integrated sensor and command & control capabilities, the “Airborne Early Warning” community has transitioned its role and title to reflect emerging roles and functions within a maritime kill web, with an Airborne Command & Control and Logistics Wing under the leadership of a Commodore, currently CAPT Matthew “Duff” Duffy.  

The second takeaway is that with the coming of the F-35 to the carrier wing, there is a broader shift in working diverse sensor networks to deliver the combat effect which extended reach sensor networks can empower.

At Fallon, they are working the relationship between the F-35 and the E-2D and sorting through how to make optimal use of both air systems in the extended battlespace. Commander, Airborne Command & Control and Logistics Wing and Carrier Air Wing Two and are moving forward with a new initiative, the First Integrated Training Evolution (FITE), which will provide basic, tailored integrated training incorporating E-2D(AR) and F-35 paired with fourth generation platforms.

It is about deploying an extended trusted sensor network, which can be tapped through various wave forms, and then being able to shape how the decision-making arc can best deliver the desired combat effect.

The third takeaway is that the foundation is clearly being laid for the decade ahead for a fully operational maritime kill web.

The strategic objective is to be able to operate extended reach, integratable, and interconnected sensor networks that provide the reach of the air wing beyond where physically its flies to deliver an extended reach combat effect.

The fourth takeaway, one which I have spent a lot of time working on before, is that the radar on the advanced Hawkeye is not in any way a traditional radar.

The problem of terminology in discussing the new combat capabilities is certainly highlighted when discussing radars, built around modules which have a variety of combat capabilities built in, and in the case of the E-2D (AR) the traditional line between what airborne command & control, sensors, and electronic warfare systems do is clearly being subsumed into new integrative capabilities which can do more than the sum of the parts.

The fifth takeaway is that with the arrival of software upgradeable aircraft like the E-2D (AR), integrated with the MQ-25A, the entire process of evolving combat capabilities onboard an aircraft, and its ability to operate as an integratable of a kill web is changing significantly.

The goal is to get to the point where the core platforms are flexible enough to evolve software rapidly and interactively.

And rather than having to ensure that each platform is maximized for what it can do with organic systems, the approach would to determine which platforms with which capabilities can be a tasked for different functions and through integratability be able to contribute to a wider array of tasks as well.

For example, with the coming of the MQ-25A working with the E-2D(AR) , evolving the sensor loadout on the MQ-25A along with reach back to Triton can allow the E-2D (AR)to do core functions differently but also adjust how it can provide support for evolving C2 tasking as well.

Rather than following a classic AWACS like target identification and strike tasking function, the manned aircraft function will be to support the dynamic force packing function in the extended battlespace.

With regard to the E-2D (AR), the Navy is designing interfaces to manage the airborne MQ-25A.

And with the advanced Hawkeye, there is a shift to operating two aircraft at the same time, replicating to some extent the 4-ship formation approach of an F-35 whereby the four ships operate as one combat brain within the airspace in which they are operating.

This is a shift from the legacy Hawkeye where one aircraft operated off of the carrier to a seamless integration of a 2-ship formation of Advanced Hawkeyes.

The sixth takeaway is with the coming of the subsurface and surface weapons schools as participants in NAWDC the focus of operations for the E-2D(AR)/MQ-25A Stingray cluster will be open 360-degree domain knowledge and combat support to leverage assets through the maritime kill web.

The seventh takeaway is that the process of change we saw when visiting NAWDC a few years ago is accelerating.

What we saw then was shaping a way ahead to open the aperture of training to prepare for the coming of the F-35 and the focus on continuous development associated with the integratable air wing. In the case of CAEWWS, they will shortly have direct access to an integrated test configured aircraft.

This allows CAEWWS to operate an aircraft which is a baseline above the capability of what Navy operational test squadrons are flying.

This is especially crucial in an era of software block upgradeable aircraft.

NAWDC is in a position to release their recommendations concurrent with initial operational capability of a particular aircraft.

This means that when a new capability rolls out, they are able concurrently to provide vetted employment recommendations from NAWDC and its weapon school partners.

In short, the transition from core function platforms to working as enablers and nodes in a kill web is underway at NAWDC.

And the coming of the Advanced Hawkeye along with the Stingray in the same innovation cluster is a case in point.

Wedgetail at 10

By Bettina Mears

Important Defence industry partnerships and a culture of excellence have been key to the operational effectiveness of Air Force’s highly advanced airborne early warning and control capability – the E-7A Wedgetail – now celebrating 10 years since its introduction into RAAF service.

Air Force operates six E-7A Wedgetail aircraft from RAAF Base Williamtown, which provide Australia with one of the most advanced air battlespace management capabilities in the world.

Based on a Boeing 737-700, the E-7A Wedgetail combines long-range surveillance radar, secondary radar, passive detection surveillance receivers and tactical/strategic voice and data communications systems. This provides the Australian Defence Force with its ability to survey, command, control and coordinate a joint air, sea and land battle in real time.

As the sole operating squadron for the platform, Commanding Officer of Number 2 Squadron, Wing Commander Jason Brown, said over the past 10 years the E-7A fleet had been regularly dispersed around the world supporting concurrent exercises and operations, often with all aircraft deployed simultaneously with mission success.

“As commanding officer during this significant milestone, it is a great honour and I am immensely proud of what has been achieved by the squadron, not only during my command but historically, at home and abroad,” Wing Commander Brown said.

Major contributions since the E-7A’s introduction into RAAF service include Operations Spate, Atlas and APEC Assist; providing concurrent support for Operation Okra; and achieving a high mission success rate with No. 2 Squadron E-7A maintenance and aircrew in support of the US-led coalition operations.

“At Operation Okra, the RAAF E-7A Wedgetail had responsibility for the command and control of all coalition aircraft in a ‘battle management area’ and crews regularly managed more than 80 combat aircraft during a single mission,” Wing Commander Brown said.

“RAAF E-7A crews have also conducted record-breaking endurance sorties for their aircraft type.

“In an integrated force, the E-7A shared information with other coalition aircraft, which allowed the force to have situational awareness across air, land and sea domains. The E-7A Wedgetail provided a force multiplier effect, not only for RAAF but for all participating nations.”

With many operational milestones and achievements to reflect on, 2020 also represents a significant year for No. 2 Squadron association members, with some marking the 50th anniversary of their service contribution to the Vietnam conflict.

“In an integrated force, the E-7A shared information with other coalition aircraft, which allowed the force to have situational awareness across air, land and sea domains.”

No. 2 Squadron was awarded a Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry and a United States Air Force Outstanding Unit Commendation. It also received a US Presidential Unit Citation for service in World War II.

“The women and men of No. 2 Squadron continue to honour this legacy and are proven operators in a cohesive and agile team environment and their important contributions have provided Air Force with an advanced, highly capable airborne early warning and control platform that is the envy of armed forces worldwide,” Wing Commander Brown said.

“The ability to perform with excellence, consistently achieving a high rate of serviceability under diverse, demanding and complex conditions is a direct result of our personnel’s professionalism and dedication to duty.”

The squadron’s efforts have also been acknowledged with the 2018 Duke of Gloucester Cup for outstanding achievement as “the RAAF’s most proficient flying unit” supporting E-7A operations.

The important partnerships and successful collaboration with the Airborne Early Warning and Control System Program Office (Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group) and Defence industry partners, including Boeing Defence Australia, have been a key contributing factor to the effectiveness and operational success of the platform – from its introduction into RAAF service to the continual sustainment and contribution to the Australian Defence Force capability at home and abroad, as called upon by government.

Boeing Defence Australia’s vice president and managing director Scott Carpendale said it was a partnership that continued to deliver successful outcomes for the Australian Defence Force, ensuring the highest levels of aircraft availability and mission readiness.

“We have built deep sovereign capability and are exceptionally proud of our contribution to the development and ongoing delivery of critical upgrades and sustainment for this world-class capability,” Mr Carpendale said.

Australian Department of Defence

April 30, 2020

Featured Photo: Maintenance and aircrew from Rotation 14 with the RAAF E-7A Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft. 

An Update on Wedgetail: And Shaping a Way Ahead with a Software Upgradeable Multi-Mission 21st Century Combat Capability