The Munich Security Conference 2019: An Overview

02/24/2019

This year’s Munich Security Conference 2019 did a good job of reflecting the conventional wisdom in Europe about the Trump Administration, and allowing geopolitical adversaries of the United States a good world stage.

And Chancellor Merkel provided a “feel good” speech to rally Europeans nostalgic for a world before Donald Trump or Brexit.

Even featured was a good representative of that world, former Vice President Bidden.

In some ways, on the European side this felt a bit like that moment in history when the Congress of Vienna met after the capture of Napoleon Bonaparte and the ancien regime was re-establishing itself.

Clearly, Bidden appealed to the notion that it would be good to move the current President offshore to somewhere like the island of Elbe and get on with nostalgia foreign policy.

The only problem is that the world is not to be found in the domain of nostalgia policy.

Not liking the Trump Administration may be an instinct but it is not about facing the realities to which the President has himself focused upon.

As Ahmed Charai put it in a recent piece published by The National Interest:

At the Munich and Warsaw conferences this past week, we saw once again the ritualistic gathering of the “Atlantic family”—the founders of the NATO alliance—coming together to one again announce unity and brotherhood. 

Like all old families, the members are not equal, and the divisions are hardly hidden. 

Let’s start with dispensing the polite fiction that when U.S. officials met their EU counterparts, it is a meeting of equals.

It is not.

He added a really core point regarding the challenge of facing the world we have, not hankering for the world we once lived in.

Missing from the conversations was any vision regarding Russia and China. 

Moscow is a military superpower but has an economy smaller than Germany and cultural power equal to Belgium. 

This may explain why the Trump administration does not see it as a great author of the world to come. 

On the other hand, China is now the world’s second-largest economy, has developed a blue-water navy, sent satellites into orbit and spacecraft to the moon. And, at least within Asia, its culture continues to attract millions of non-Chinese. 

More importantly, China is placing a big, strategic bet on “big data.” 

It is amassing vast amounts of information about its citizens and plans to issue a social-rating score for each of them. 

China is busily buying up communication companies around the world. 

The Chinese regime, without making waves, has a vision of influence and domination. 

It is building its own brave new world. 

In our Munich Security Conference 2019 update, we include our pieces on the Conference as well as speeches made there as well.

Munich Security Conference

And for an ebook version of the update:

The USAF and the RAF Honor B-17 Crew Which Crashed in Britain 75 Years Ago

02/23/2019

On February 22, 2019, a flypast honoring 10 airmen called in a Sheffield bomber crash 75 years ago was conducted.

It was held largely because of the work of Tony Foulds who inspired the BBC to reach out to the RAF and the USAF to honor the memory of these pilots.

The crew of this particular B-17 had become heroes to a little boy who witnessed the crash, namely Tony Foulds.

As the B-17 was about to crash, the children playing in the park were waved off of the area by crewmen, and Foulds believes the pilot directed the plane into the trees to avoid killing the children playing in the park.

According to a BBC story published on February 22, 2019:

The US bomber came down in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on 22 February 1944, killing everyone on board.

A campaign for a flypast started after a chance meeting between BBC Breakfast presenter Dan Walker and Tony Foulds, who tends a park memorial.

A tearful Mr Foulds was given a rousing round of applause as the planes flew over. He said: “This is unbelievable.”

Relatives of the aircrew and thousands of people from across Britain paid their respects as the planes roared over the memorial at about 08:45 GMT….

The flypast involved military aircraft from Britain and the United States, who set off from RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk – home to the largest US Air Force base in the UK….

Mr Foulds said he and the other children were in the park 75 years ago because boys from two rival junior schools were fighting.

Of the airmen on board the B-17 Flying Fortress, known as Mi Amigo, he said: “If it hadn’t been for them, I wouldn’t be here with my family.

“It’s more than bravery, what they did. They saved me, and I mean saved me.

“These are now part of my family, my ashes are going to be put by the memorial. I might as well stay with them, you know.”

The featured photo shows Tony Foulds waving at the aircraft as they flew past Endclliffe Park.

For an earlier look at remembering a downed B-17 crew in France, see the following:

https://sldinfo.com/2013/07/honoring-a-70-year-old-memory-of-a-b-17-crew-operating-in-france-sequestration-is-not-the-only-reality/

And for the flight that day of the remaining B-17 plane in the UK, see the following as well.

For our B-17 special report, see the following:

B-17-Special-Report

 

 

 

USAF Reports on Red Flag 19-1

02/22/2019

In a recent article published by the 388th Fighter Wing Public Affairs on February 15, 2019, an update was provided on Red Flag-19-1 and how the impact of the F-35 is changing the approach to air combat.

Today, Airmen from the 388th Fighter Wing’s 4th Fighter Squadron wrapped up flying operations with the F-35A Lightning II in an “exponentially more challenging” Red Flag. 

The 4th FS integrated the F-35A into a large, capable “Blue Force” in diverse missions against an equally capable “Red Force.” Nearly 3,000 personnel from 39 separate units participated in the exercise, including the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, Royal Air Force and Royal Australian Air Force.

The Red Force was made up of hybrid threats, combinations of the “most advanced weapons systems out there,” meant to replicate “near-peer” enemies in a large scale conflict. The shift closely aligns with the National Defense Strategy. 

“The first time I came to Red Flag in 2004, our tactics were the same as they had been since the early 1980s. Now, the threat and complexity are at a whole different level,” said Col. Joshua Wood, 388th Operations Group commander. “It’s no longer assumed that we will gain and maintain air superiority. That’s a big shift.”  

Red Flag aggressors encompass the whole spectrum of an adversary force – advanced integrated air-defense systems, an adversary air force, cyber-warfare and information operations. Because of these diverse capabilities, many Red Flag missions are flown in “contested or denied” environments with active electronic attack, communications jamming, and GPS denial. 

“Those situations highlight the fifth-generation capabilities of the F-35. We’re still able to operate and be successful. In a lot of cases we have a large role as an integrated quarterback,” said Lt. Col. Yosef Morris, 4th Fighter Squadron commander. “Our ability to continue to fuse and pass information to the entire package makes every aircraft more survivable.” 

During the first week of Red Flag, the F-35 pilots flew in a larger force of Blue Air in a counter-air mission. More than 60 aggressor aircraft were flying against them, blinding many of the fourth-generation aircraft with “robust” electronic attack capabilities. 

“I’ve never seen anything like it before.” Wood said. “This is not a mission you want a young pilot flying in. My wingman was a brand new F-35A pilot, seven or eight flights out of training. He gets on the radio and tells an experienced, 3,000-hour pilot in a very capable fourth-generation aircraft. ‘Hey bud, you need to turn around. You’re about to die. There’s a threat off your nose.’”

The young pilot then “killed” the enemy aircraft and had three more kills in the hour-long mission.

“Even in this extremely challenging environment, the F-35 didn’t have many difficulties doing its job,” Wood said. ‘That’s a testament to the pilot’s training and the capabilities of the jet.” 

One of the most valuable things about this exercise for the 4th Fighter Squadron is the experience it provided younger pilots flying combat missions as part of an integrated force. Thirteen pilots in the squadron have never flown the F-35 in Red Flag, and four of them just graduated pilot training.

“They say it’s the most realistic thing to combat,” said 1st Lt. Landon Moores, a new F-35A pilot. “It’s been pretty intense.” 

Red Flag is not a “rolling campaign.” It is made up of different scenarios that increase in difficulty as the weeks go on. This allows the integrated force to learn how best to capitalize on the strengths and protect the weaknesses of each platform in very specific mission sets. 

“With stealth, the F-35 can get closer to threats than many other aircraft can. Combined with the performance of the fused sensors on the F-35, we can significantly contribute to the majority of the missions,” Morris said.

The missions aren’t just 90-minute flights. They require 12-hours of intense planning the day prior, a two hour pre-brief, and then several hours of debriefing after the mission – dissecting the outcome and looking for ways to improve.  

“It’s not like we just come back and high-five if we’re successful,” Morris said. “Could we have done better? Did we have all the resources we needed? Often the brief and debrief is the most valuable part of Red Flag, especially for younger pilots.” 

The squadron brought 12 aircraft and more than 200 Airmen to the three-week exercise – pilots, maintainers, intelligence officers, weapons crews, and support personnel, including reservists from the 419th Fighter Wing. Maintainers didn’t lose a single sortie to a maintenance ground-abort and had spare aircraft available for every mission. 

“As this aircraft matures, we continue to see it be a significant force-multiplier in a threat-dense environment,” Morris said. “Red Flag was a success for us and has made our younger pilots more lethal and more confident.” 

 

 

USN Discusses Way Ahead with Naval Aviation

In a recent story by Megan Eckstein published by USNI News on February 20, 2019, the author reports on a panel held at the recent Navy exposition in Washington DC.

For the aviation community, the pace of inserting more lethality into the fighter force is already predetermined: the F/A-18 Hornets are gone, and the F-35C Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter is on its way in to supplement the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as a co-equal component of the fighter jet force.

For Vice Adm. DeWolfe Miller, commander of Naval Air Forces, the new jets are on their way and he has to make sure tactics can keep up to provide the Navy with the most combat power.

“All those tactics, as we bring fifth-gen and fourth-gen together – if you will, we kind of commonly call that Gen 9 air wings that we’re going to be having soon – those tactics, techniques and procedures to be able to maximize lethality within our air wings,” he said during the panel presentation.

After the panel, Miller told USNI News that various recapitalization and upgrade efforts cause various levels of disruption to the fleet, but his job as the type commander is to manage that risk and ensure the combatant commanders have the air wings they need.

“We deal with it across the board: as I go from E-2C to E-2D, as I go from P-3 into P-8, those are fairly natural progressions that really don’t stress the force, but it is new training that’s required.

“More importantly, when I go from EP-3s into a multi-INT Triton – so that one’s going to be, the whole way we train is going to be different, the fact that I’m going from manned to unmanned. But the way the mission’s done, there’s a lot of similarities,” Miller said.

“I’ll use another example, F-35: so again, tactical aviation, but new capabilities. … If we’re assessing how an air wing is performing, maybe those metrics are different when I’m looking at a more capable air wing. Maybe we need to elevate up that as well.”

Learning to embrace the F-35C will require some thought regarding entirely new ways to do missions, Miller acknowledged, but at the most basic level “we need to make sure that we’re doing our due diligence to make sure the capability – as a force generator, as a TYCOM – that the capability, we know how to operate it, we know how to sustain it, we know how to maintain it and we know how to turn it into lethality. And then we provide that to the combatant commanders, who will fight with it.”

The featured photo shows Sailors directing an F-35C Lightning II assigned to the Argonauts of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 147 on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ethan J. Soto/Released)

F-35 at Red Flag 19-1: The Role of Maintainers

NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev

After more than two weeks launching F-35A sorties at Red Flag 19-1 here, maintainers with the 388th Fighter Wing are impressed with the jet and the young airmen who help maintain it. 

The 4th Fighter Squadron and 4th Aircraft maintenance unit brought 12 jets and more than 200 Airmen from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, to Red Flag for the three week exercise. Red Flag is the Air Force’s premier combat exercise and pits a friendly “blue” force against an enemy “red” force in challenging combat scenarios. 

“This is about as close as you’re going to get to a deployed environment. We’ve been able to sustain a very aggressive schedule and keep the mission-capable rate high,” said Master Sgt. Paul DeGrechie, production superintendent with the 4th AMU. “The F-35 was designed to be maintenance friendly, and that’s been the case here.” 

Working around the clock, the Airmen have launched more than a dozen sorties a day, and so far, have maintained a higher than 90 percent mission capable rate. They have been able to fine-tune their operations and build off of lessons-learned to be more proactive with “pre-maintenance,” said Capt. Dayna Grant, officer in charge of the 4th AMU.    

“We’ve been able to use this to gain a lot of experience for our young Airmen across the board,” Grant said. “This is preparing them for the kind of ops tempo and working environment we’d experience if we were called upon to deploy.” 

Working in a simulated combat environment helps not only train the Airmen, but exposes them to working life away from their home station, alongside other units,  which allows them to see how the contribute to the mission of a much larger force. 

“In this environment they don’t feel like they’re feeding the ‘sortie monster.’ They are part of something bigger. They are learning and growing, gaining the trust of their supervisors and each other,” DeGreiche said. “There is a real sense of pride to see the unity that forms. They are all working together, stepping outside of their comfort zones to pitch in.” 

Being at Red Flag allows the Airmen to focus entirely on the mission and they have more time to broaden their skills. Airman 1st Class Monique Fajardo, who joined the Air Force two years ago, has been able to learn and practice things that are not part of her normal job as an avionics technician. 

“They’ve been showing me how to do things that crew chiefs do, prepping the jet, interacting with the pilots, marshaling a jet,” Fajardo said. “It’s been really fun.”  

https://www.hill.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1756624/red-flag-strengthens-f-35a-maintainers/

The featured photo shows Airman 1st Class Monique Fajardo, 4th Aircraft Maintenance Unit, launching an F-35A Lightning II at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada. Pilots and maintainers from the 388th Fighter Wing’s 4th Fighter Squadron and 4th Aircraft Maintenance Unit are participating in Red Flag 19-1 at Nellis AFB, Nevada.

This is wing’s second Red Flag with the F-35A, America’s most advanced multi-role fighter, which brings game-changing stealth, lethality and interoperability to the modern battlefield.

Red Flag is the Air Force’s premier combat exercise and includes units from across the Air Force and allied nations. The 388th is the lead wing for Red Flag 19-1.  (U.S. Air Force photo by R. Nial Bradshaw)

From the Osprey to the CH-53K: Progress in Building a Maintainable Aircraft

02/21/2019

By Robbin Laird

Recently, I visited New River to talk with the team doing the Log Demo in support of the CH-53K.

A decade ago I visited the Osprey maintainers standing up the Osprey at New River as well.

I have republished a number of those interviews from a decade ago with the maintainers to provide a baseline against which to measure the progress for the USMC as they standup their next major ground support air system.

I reached back to one of my hosts during the Log Demo visit, Jim Lambert, the head field representative for Sikorsky working on the Log Demo, to discuss the differences between the two generations of aircraft from a maintenance perspective as well as to discuss some aspects of the generational change in heavy lift from the CH-53E to the CH-53K.

Question: How would contrast the standup of the K with that of the Osprey from a maintenance perspective?

Lambert: We are directly focused on the training of the Marine maintainers in a crawl, walk and run approach.

“We are building the confidence of the Marine maintainers as well as building the domain technical knowledge.

“We are taking the time to teach them not just how to maintain the aircraft but confidence on the aircraft.

“They are getting a rare opportunity to get incredibly valuable touch time in a slow paced learning environment, which allows them to get comfortable with the airplane.

“Clearly, when we get to flight, operations we are going to ask them to run, but only after a smooth learning curve leading up to them confidently maintaining the aircraft.

“We’ve put the tools designed to maintain the aircraft into their hands to test in the environment they were designed for ahead of the time that we’re going actually have them use them for the first time.

“And with their feedback, we can ensure they meet all the needs of the fleet to support aircraft operations. We collect the data and have the ability to adjust the tools designs as needed.

“Much like the aircraft itself that was designed in an office and is being tested in its intended designed environment, we are doing the same with all the aspect of fleet supportability and logistics.

“The maintenance procedures, tooling, ground support equipment, spares, data collection and maintenance tracking systems are being tested now in their intended environment by the target users.

“Testing the entire scope during log demo has added opportunity to train and familiarize the Marines through the full spectrum of what fleet support will be.”

Question: And to be clear, with the Osprey, the Marines started by walking their way through the first manuals to support operations. 

Aren’t you with the logs demo shaping domain knowledge rather than manuals to launch the K fleet experience?

Lambert: That is correct.

“We are focused on having the Marines working with the airplane get familiar and comfortable with the maintenance approach and indeed, to shape that approach.

“In Osprey interviews which you published from a decade ago, one of the challenges highlighted was the lack of knowledge, the lack of being comfortable with the airplane which led to a high amount of premature removal of parts for unknown failures.

“We are focused on training the Marines to make good sound judgment calls when troubleshooting and performing maintenance.”

Question: How does having a Sikorsky field rep involved in the team affect the learning continuity process?

 Lambert: Continuity of experience and the learning curve to be built by such experience is a key part of the program.

“As the aircraft proliferates across the globe to USMC operating bases, we will have service reps deployed with the aircraft.

“We are going to be there to shape the domain knowledge and confidence factor crucial to maintenance, especially with regard to a digital aircraft.

“We will provide a backstop for the Marines who can be confident that we are providing representation, boots on the ground, wherever the aircraft’s going to be operating.”

Question: My final question is to turn to one aspect of the difference between the legacy CH-53 and the new one.

When I was at New River recently, you have an E next to a K and you were doing rotor head maintenance on the K and had just removed the rotor blades.  How do you do that differently on the two aircraft and to do so in a way that gives the K much greater capability to support a higher ops tempo?

Lambert: The 53K is a completely different airplane than the 53E, so there is virtually no place on the K that I can’t walk around and show you that there’s been a head and shoulders improvement over the legacy 53E.

“There’s so much thought that went into the maintainability of this aircraft.

“We’ve removed a significant amount of parts on the airplane compared to the legacy CH-53.

“This was possible by moving from a mechanical aircraft to a digital 21stcentury aircraft.”

“We removed whole gear boxes from the airplane, dozens of mechanical flight control components with multiple bit piece parts, engine cables and a significant amount of analog avionics and hydraulic components.

“All these required spare part support, repair capability, recurring maintenance inspection as well as significant amounts of time to manually rig/ adjust these systems.

“We’ve simplified it mechanically, like no other aircraft that I’ve ever worked on or have had experience with.

“A prime example of maintainability influenced aircraft design is the rotor system”

“You asked about the rotors and blades which provide a good example of simplification and greater robustness.

“We’re using an elastomeric rotor head system.

“We didn’t use an elastomeric rotor on our 53E; we used what’s called a Wet Head which is a rotor head which uses oil bath bearings and spherical bearings for all control points as opposed to elastomeric bearings, which are rubber composite bearings.

“We don’t use any spherical bearings on the rotor head itself on the K.

“Spherical bearings have a lot higher wear rate, and they have a lot higher inspection intervals. The spherical bearings wear out at a significant rate compared to an elastomeric bearing.

“We’ve proven elastomeric bearings, out through many years of use, on the 60 fleet to 92s. They’re very good, reliable bearings. We have at least a few hundred flight hours on most of the 53K aircraft in test by now with almost all still flying with all their original bearings installed.

“In comparison, the 53E, the spherical bearings are inspected and they’re changed on a pretty routine basis every 25 to 50 hours.

“This means that using the elastomeric bearings significantly reduces the maintenance burden as far as inspection and actual time on maintenance is concerned.”

“With regard to the blades, maintenance has simplified and sped up as well.

“The blades are held, on a 53E rotor head, with a bolts and all require safety cable. This process includes applications of primer, bolts to be installed, torque sequences to perform and safety cable application ending with sealant.

“There’s a rotor blade servicing procedure that we have to do as part of the old in flight blade inspection system.

“In contrast, for the 53K, the plane has a fully composite rotor blade with no service needed. Two quick release pins hold it on and even the grounding wire is a quick release.

“We can put these blades on and off in a very short amount of time. It’s very much of an improved interface as far as maintenance is concerned.

“These are some of the key maintenance improvements along with blade removal and reinstallation, servicing the rotor head, the dampers on the rotor head can all be individually serviced as need.  They are not all serviced together as is required by the 53E. The result is a better more maintainable rotor head.”

“Clearly, the less time we’re performing excessive inspections or maintenance due to the before mentioned significant reductions in parts, modularized design with an aircraft built for unparalleled maintainability; the more time we’re able to fly and complete the mission.”

“Bringing people home everywhere every time! “

Editor’s Note:

What one saw through the early years of the Osprey was a clear problem with lack of understanding of parts failures and lack of confidence or familiarity of Marine maintainers with the certain key parts performance which led to a more hit and miss approach to manage the parts flow.

This point was driven home to me in an interview with Col. Seymour prior to his retirement from the USMC, a senior Marine who knew the Osprey better than anyone.

In the exit interview I did with Colonel Christopher ‘Mongo’ Seymour in the summer of 2013 during the week prior to his retirement, the hard hitting and well-respected Marine Corps leader provided a look back and a way ahead with regard to sustainment of the Osprey.

QUESTION: A major challenge in fielding a new system is getting the supply chain up and working and getting the inevitably maintenance problems sorted out.

How have you worked through these problems?

Col. Seymour: There are three separate streams of activity which need to align to really get the new system up and running and integrated into operations.

The first is getting the Marines committed to owning the system and learning how to fix “new” problems, which come up with a new system.

The problems are different and have to be worked differently.

You need to get the maintainers to change their culture.

Sorting out problems with the gearbox is a good example of what needed to be done.

The gearbox on this airplane is very complex and central to its unique operational capabilities.

The gearbox inside the nacelle turns a rotor, and they were chipping.

This is high-end engineering.

But it was chipping and when it did so maintainers put it aside and waited for a new part.

This meant the fleet was going to be degraded.

The flight line needed to take ownership of the problem because a lot of it was self-inflicted gunshot wounds.

Maintainers would look to blame someone else when they had a Prop Rotor gearbox go bad.

As it turns out, the technology required was to use isotropic oil that actually absorbs moisture out of the air, so if you have a gearbox that’s not turning and boiling the oil out on a regular basis, it goes long term down.

It’s sucking in the moisture of the North Carolina Coast into the oil.

And the maintainers would leave it out on the flight line all opened up just breathing the air, and then when they finally got a part or piece, they try to fire it up and another gearbox would chip or another problem would manifest itself someplace else. It was an endless loop.

We took some ownership here on flight line, and shaped better maintenance practices, and to help industry.

Once we got that Prop Rotor gearbox moving back out of the red into the black, the internal culture of the community changed to become significantly more optimistic, you know.

The maintenance man-hours required to change a proper gearbox initially was estimated at 1800 maintenance man-hours.

We’re doing it now in about 380.

That’s how good we got at it.

Exercice “Marathon Monfreid” in Djibouti

02/20/2019

By Lieutenant Lise Moricet (French Air Force)

TUESDAY 8 JANUARY 2019- DJIBOUTI

Three Rafale from the Saint-Dizier based fighter squadron 1/4  “Gascogne,” as well as one C-135 from Istres Air Base 125 participated in a long range projection exercise, called “Marathon-Monfreid.”

Eight hours of in-flight time and four air-to-air refuelings were necessary for the Rafales to join in flight the Mirages 2000-5 from the fighter squadron 3/11 “Corse,” permanently stationed on the  Djibouti Air Base 188.

Deploying French strategic air capabilities (FAS for « Forces aériennes stratégiques » ) at more than 5500 kilometers from France had two objectives :

  • Ensure that fighter crews get proper training for long range air raids while simulating a raid by the nuclear air component (Marathon);
  • Train them for first-entry in a high intensity warfare theater in a realistic tactical environment.

Ideally situated in the horn of Africa and at the gates of the Middle East, Djibouti is a unique interallied joint training area.

Of the 1700 military personnel deployed, 300 aviators operate daily from Air Base 188, the first French forward-based operational airbase for French forces prepositioned in Africa.

The Rafale fighter jets then continued on their mission to the island of la Réunion, where FAF  Air Detachment 181 is stationed at Saint-Denis, to be followed by the A330 Phénix which has recently been deployed in the force.

Original link– https://www.defense.gouv.fr/air/actus-air/exercice-marathon-monfreid-en-terre-djiboutienne

Translation from the original French by Chloe Laird.

A Tale of Three Contracts: France Shapes its Global Defense Industrial Posture

By Robbin Laird

One can be forgiven if in looking at Macron’s France you focus on his emphasis on Europe and the prioritization of the next phase of European integration.

Yet at the same time, one is witnessing within France the very forces, which are undermining the capability to do so.

Yellow jackets are hardly the storm troopers for more European integration.

Nonetheless, one should not miss what the Macron Administration is doing to shape a global presence beyond Europe itself.

If France has a relatively modest force structure, why not do so with a global focus on defense industry?

What is also notable is that the sweep of three contracts in less than a month have not really been linked together in terms of France shaping a global posture, a somewhat post-Brexit but also post European integration effort as well.

All three contracts position France nicely but also challenge it significantly.

France will need to have the engineering talent to execute the contracts.

France will need to have the global management skills to manage the contracts as well as the conflicting interests implied by those three contracts.

France will need to balance the very different interests of partners in these three contracts.

France will need to shape a wide range of partnering approaches, techniques and means to succeed as well.

It is not just about exporting made-in France and partnering done along those lines to promote the national interest.

Finally, France will need to ensure that economic regression and social warfare don’t undercut the French industrial infrastructure necessary to succeed.

Or put another way, the three contracts also put France in the spotlight with any perceived successes or failures to be magnified on the world stage as well.

The Aussie Submarine

The first contract is with the Aussies to build a new submarine.

The submarine to be built has never been built; it will leverage the work of Naval Group, formerly DCNS, won both nuclear and conventional submarines.

For this contract to succeed, Naval Group and the Aussies will have to build capacity in Australia which is not there to design, build, and maintain a new class of submarines with the first arriving a decade or more away.

If successful, a French company would have a solid base in Australia from which to operate in the region and beyond.

Strategic Partnering Agreement for the Future Submarine Program   from SldInfo.com on Vimeo.

FCAS

The second contract is with Germany to build a new air combat system in the 2040s.

For the French, this is about taking Dassault and several key French companies forward into the evolving world of air combat, notably Thales and Safran.

A French Dassault Rafale lands at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, in support of exercise POINTBLANK Nov. 25, 2018. The objective of the exercise is to prepare coalition warfighters for a highly contested fight against near-peer adversaries by providing a multi-dimensional battle-space to conduct advanced training in support of U.S. and U.K. national interests. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)

Airbus is the swing company straddling Germany and France with its role being sorted out.

Here the French are shaping a larger pool of money to work with and to build out from a pragmatic way ahead with regard to Rafale modernization.

The success of this venture will rest on France and Germany finding common solutions to airpower, something which has proven elusive in the past.

But building a common air system does pose a tough question for the two governments: Can they agree on a common and flexible arms export policy?

SAMI and Naval Group

The challenge of doing so is certainly brought to the fore by the third agreement.

The third agreement is with Saudi Arabia and the Naval Group and is about building an entirely updated or new infrastructure to build 21stcentury combat vessels.

The agreement is signed with Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) the new entity created by the Saudi ruler to craft a new defense industrial approach, akin to what the UAE has done, in order to build from Saudi Arabia rather than simply to import into Saudi Arabia.

This is the same ruler whom the German government is doing its best to sanction.

But clearly from the French point of view, building out capabilities in an allied Arab nation is worth the risk and any German blowback.

Let us be clear here – this is being done to support French national interests no matter how much the discourse about European sovereignty is launched from the Macron government’s spin machine.

The good news is that France is diversifying its global presence.

The bad news is that France is diversifying its global presence in the face of significant economic and social difficulties and conflicts.

But what Macron has done is to expand the landscape within which he and his successors can operate to perhaps get better maneuver room to deal with European allies like Germany or France’s own social challenges.

If you can build from Australia or Saudi Arabia, then what you need to build from France becomes a contextual issue, not a survival issue, thereby gaining some strategic maneuvering room for the French government.