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We have recently published several articles which deal with the challenge of the Ukrainian war on global security.
One article analyzes the implications of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The articles explore differing perspectives on a potential negotiated settlement, contrasting the approaches of a Trump administration prioritizing a ceasefire with Russia’s retention of conquered territories, and the Biden administration’s focus on supporting Ukraine’s military efforts.
Concerns are raised about the potential for appeasement of Russia, the impact on NATO, and the role of European nations in mediating a resolution.
Finally, the articles examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in Europe and the United States’ role within it, particularly concerning defense strategies and alliances.
This podcast discusses these articles and is a Deep Dive podcast made via Notebook LM.
And below the podcast is a PDF combining the articles with the date published and the author indicated.
Featured photo: President of Russian speech on TV regarding the Russia and Ukraine war.
U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II strike fighter aircraft assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, fly alongside a KC-130J Super Hercules tanker aircraft assigned to Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron (VMGR) 152, during an aerial refueling exercise in the vicinity of the Miyako Strait, Aug. 21, 2024.
The air-to-air refueling extends the patrolling and strike range abilities of F-35Bs, outspreading a 5th generation multi-discipline strike capability to support combined-joint all domain operations in key maritime terrain.
The 31st MEU is operating aboard ships of the America Amphibious Ready Group in the 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific Region.
Next year, I am publishing a book on the tiltrotor enterprise. I have been interviewing and engaging with Marines using the aircraft since 2007, the first time I flew on the aircraft.
There seems to be a cottage industry of folks writing about the difficulty of flying the aircraft and implying that this somehow suggests it is too dangerous for the missions it has been successfully doing since its first appearance in Iraq in 2007.
My own observation has been that training and experience do matter with a combat aircraft which is unique as the Osprey is, for after all you need to know how to fly a plane, how to fly a rotorcraft and how to transition from one to the other and vice versa.
I wanted to talk with an experienced Osprey practitioner with regard to the importance of training, muscle memory and pilot competence and was fortunate to talk on November 20, 2024 with a Marine whom I had the opportunity to interview several years ago.
In a 2016 article which I wrote with my colleague Ed Timperlake, we talked with the then XO of MAWTS-1, Lt Col “Cowboy” Nelson. He had been on the deployment to Afghanistan under the command of Lt Col Bianca when I interviewed Lt Col Bianco after an Osprey raid in 2010.
In the earlier 2010 interview conducted by telephone when the squadron was in Afghanistan, Lt. Col. Bianca highlighted a number of key contributions of the aircraft to the fight.
The most compelling point underscored by the squadron commander is how, in effect, the Osprey has inverted infrastructure and platform.
Normally, the infrastructure shapes what the platform can do. Indeed, a rotorcraft or a fixed wing aircraft can operate under specific circumstances.
With the range and speed of the Osprey aircraft, the plane shapes an overarching infrastructure allowing the ground forces to range over all of Afghanistan, or to be supported where there are no airfields, or where distributed forces need support.
The envelopment role of the Osprey is evident in Afghanistan as well, whereby the Osprey can provide the other end of the operational blow for the ground or rotorcrafts in hot pursuit of Taliban.
The Osprey can move seamlessly in front of rotorcraft and land forces, allowing the pursuit of different lines of attack. The envelopment role was not the focus of the interview because of security considerations, but anecdotal evidence suggests such an emerging role.
When we talked to “Cowboy” during our visit to MAWTS-1 in 2016, he was applying his by then extensive experience with the Osprey and connecting to the then new kid on the block, namely the F-35s and referred the new generation of Marines working the intersection of these two revolutionary capabilities as follows:
Cowboy: The new generation is so technologically sophisticated that they will thrive in the evolving digital environment – of which the F-35 is a key element.
Connecting with him again, now eight years later, we returned to a discussion of the Osprey and the importance of generating the flight hours and training commensurate with the combat benefits which the aircraft delivers to the Marines and the joint force.
He started by underscoring the importance of squadron readiness when operating the Osprey, which of course, is true across the flying community. And readiness and training have not been high on recent Administration’s shopping lists.
Cowboy: It is a resourcing issue. If you don’t resource and give a squadron the people they need, the parts they need to fix something, the airplanes aren’t going to fly effectively.
And I think that goes back to the flying hours issue.
The trend has been to lower the number of flying hours which Osprey pilots have, which has a direct impact on readiness.
Nothing replaces air sense, by which I mean being off the ground in the air.
It hones your decision making, your experience and your skills as a pilot,
You know, when I was a young man and started out in helicopters, before I went to MAWTS-1, I don’t think that I had a year where I didn’t fly more than 300 hours.
An average year for a V-22 pilot now is probably closer to 150 hours.
My CO’s had 3000-5000 flight hours and today I think we are seeing many with much few flight hours when they take command.
There is little doubt that the question of flight hours contributes significantly to the current mishap rate.
Are we putting pilots in a position where they are more likely to make mistakes because their skills are not refined?
We then focused on a core flying challenge which requires significant training time and that is CALs or (confined area landings).
I once experienced at New River one afternoon 22 landings in a V-22 which is very different from a rotorcraft because the pilot is using the advantages of being a plane to adjust where he will approach the landing zone and then shifts to rotorcraft mode to land.
This is a key area where he felt that flight time should be increased in operating and training with the aircraft.
Cowboy: Pilots need the muscle memory of getting into landing environments.
And it’s further complicated when you get in the dust.
We’ve got great simulators, but nothing will replace the time in the airplane for flying and building muscle memory.
Featured photo: An MV-22B Osprey with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 262, 1st Marine Aircraft Wing, lands at Chitose Air Base, Hokkaido, Japan, Feb. 4, 2020. The arrival of the Osprey to exercise Northern Viper brings an added element, further advancing opportunities for continued bilateral coordination between the U.S. Marine Corps and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. Northern Viper is a regularly scheduled training exercise that is designed to enhance the interoperability of the U.S. and Japan Alliance by allowing Marine Air-Ground Task Forces from III Marine Expeditionary Force to maintain their lethality and proficiency in MAGTF Combined Arms Operations in cold weather environments. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Dylan Hess)
Kirk “Cowboy” Nelson
He is Director of Advanced Training Systems, Xiphos Partners
Kirk “Cowboy” Nelson serves on the Xiphos Partners Team as Director of the Advanced Training Systems business unit and Program Manager of the JTAC virtual training system (JVT). In this role he is responsible for the transition of the JVT training system to a Program of Record as well as the development of new and related Advanced Training products.
Kirk came to Xiphos from Bell Textron. He served as the Director Sustainment, V-22 from May of 2020 until April of 2023.
In this role, Kirk is responsible for multiple Performance Based Logistics contracts that exceeded all performance metrics during his tenure. Kirk led his team in expanding the PBL business at Bell and the V-22 sustainment team was routinely recognized for their superior support to the warfighter. He was also responsible for Bell’s Fleet Service team which included over 100 Field Service Representatives.
He previously held the position of Manager, Flight Operations Maintenance, at the Bell Flight Research Center. His responsibilities included supporting aircraft maintenance and logistics for Bell experimental flight test. Kirk supported the 525 and the V-280 programs during his tenure.
Before joining Bell, LtCol Nelson was the Commanding Officer of VMM-266 where he was responsible for the tactical employment of 12 MV-22B/C aircraft. As Commander, he led his squadron in operations across North and West Africa. His squadron was the first to deploy to both Ghana and Gabon for an extended period in support of both training and contingency operations.
He also established the MV-22 curriculum and was the first MV-22 MAWTS-1 instructor.
Kirk also deployed and flew combat missions in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He was a member of the first MV-22 squadron to operate in Afghanistan.
Kirk enlisted in the Marine Corps and became a CH-46E mechanic and was later selected to attend the United States Naval Academy.
He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in History and was commissioned into the United States Marine Corps.
He went on to serve 24 years in Marine Aviation and graduated from multiple military training courses.
U.S. Marines with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 268 (Reinforced), Marine Rotational Force – Darwin 24.3, perform maintenance on an MV-22B Osprey in preparation for Super Garuda Shield 2024 at Juanda International Airport, East Java, Indonesia, Aug. 24, 2024. Super Garuda Shield is an annual exercise that has significantly grown in scope and size since 2009. Super Garuda Shield 24 is the third consecutive time this exercise has grown into a combined and joint event, focused on commitment to partnership and a free and open Indo-Pacific.
I had a chance to visit Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison” on Oct. 29, 2024. Earlier, I visited West Coast squadrons at North Island, San Diego, but this was my first opportunity to visit the squadron at Naval Station Norfolk.
This squadron will play a key role in helping the U.S. Navy to operate within the “contested logistics” environment now facing the U.S. Navy fleet, a major challenge in both the Pacific and the Atlantic.
I had a chance to meet with the following officers:Commander Mason Fox, VRM-40 commanding officer; Commander Brett Learner, VRM-40 executive officer; Lieutenant Sam Ector, VRM-40 assistant operations officer; and Aviation Electrician’s Mate Chief Petty Officer Frank Schaeffer, VRM-40 maintenance chief.
We had a broad ranging discussion regarding the squadron and its preparation for its core missions.
During that conversation, Fox indicated how they met an unusual challenge for a new squadron. As they were getting ready to go from North Island (San Diego) to Norfolk on Dec. 6, 2023 with their first Ospreys, the DoD grounded the Osprey fleet DoD wide. Obviously, this was a shock but one which the squadron and its support community found a way to respond.
According to Commander Fox, the squadron had received their flight simulators so the pilots could train in the absence of flying real airplanes while waiting for the grounding to be lifted. And he indicated that the maintainers worked with Bell in Fort Worth on training the maintainers.
This meant that when the grounding was lifted in March 2024, the squadron was ready to re-commence their stand-up effort.
The core mission for the squadron is to replace the C-2A in the carrier re-supply mission. But because the Osprey can operate on a variety of ships or from a variety of locations, it can provide for fleet support in a contested environment.
As Commander Fox put it: “The aircraft is very capable, and the pilots and air crewmen can do whatever mission we’re tasked with for distributed maritime operation logistics. And that’s the key point. If a flag officer says that they need to get a [supply] part to a submarine, we’ll be able to do that. I’ve done so many different mission sets in my career, from ASW to attack to SOF support. All of them come down to time, distance, fuel and hover capability. If you can do time, distance, and fuel math calculations and understand your power margins, then really it’s up to the people that task us with logistics to choose how they want to employ us.”
What they have been focused on since the squadron has been activated is working with the carrier community on the logistics operations for East Coast based carriers, the Truman and the Ford. They worked with the Truman in June 2024 and the Ford in September 2024. They are planning to next continue their training with the Bush in the future.
The focus according to Fox: “We want to integrate as tightly as we can with the carriers and the air wings on the East Coast so that they fully understand our capabilities.”
They work with the CAG when onboard the carrier as does the C-2A. I noted when onboard the Ford that it has a significant design feature that will work well with the CMV-22B. The island on the Ford is not in the middle of the carrier flight deck but at the end which will allow the Osprey land on the carrier deck and be parked out of the way near the lift elevators onboard the carrier so not to get in the way of the launch and recovery operations going on the flight deck.
The C-2A has several parts in common with the Hawkeye, but I asked how they will address parts issues onboard the carrier for the CMV-22B.
I was told that a footprint of support personnel will be set up on the carrier to deal with this need, somewhere in the vicinity of 15-20 people.
The CMV-22B is the Navy version of the Osprey but Fox discussed the importance of what I have called the tiltrotor enterprise for the joint fight and the contribution which Navy Ospreys can make as well.
According to Fox: “Our version of the Osprey has a little bit more gas that we can carry, and we have a primary mission that is different than the Marine Corps and Air Force Ospreys. But I think that if we’re looking at a joint fight, we’re looking at the 450 plus Ospreys that are part of the program record. They will all be contributing to distributed maritime ops, because that’s the fight we are in.”
My final question was about how many aircraft are now in the squadron and what will be its eventual size. I was told that there were six planes currently in the squadron with a seventh to arrive the coming weeks. Dependent on final funding, they would have 12-15 Ospreys in the squadron.
Following our conversation, we all met in the squadron’s temporary hangar. There is a new hangar being built nearby (two hangars down). The Ospreys rest already on the rebuilt tarmac next to the new hangar location.
Note: The first photo below was taken during my visit and my tour with Commander Fox. The other photos are from the first arrival of the squadron and are credited to the U.S. Navy.
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey lands at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey lands at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey lands at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey lands at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey conducts post-flight checks following its arrival at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey transits the flight line following its arrival at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B Osprey belongs to Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 the “Mighty Bison.” The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability, replacing the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
The first East Coast-assigned Navy tiltrotor vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft CMV-22B Osprey transits into the Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40 hangar bay following its arrival at Naval Station Norfolk, April 5. The CMV-22B airframe will provide the fleet’s medium-lift and long-range aerial logistics capability and will replace the C-2A Greyhounds of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40 over the next several years. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Sylvie Carafiol)
Red Flag-Alaska 24-3 a Pacific Air Forces directed field training exercise for U.S. and international forces flown under simulated air combat conditions and took place out of Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, Aug. 14-30, 2024.
It is conducted on the Joint Pacific Alaska Range Complex with air operations flown primarily out of Eielson AFB and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. RF-A exercises are focused on improving the combat readiness of U.S. and international forces and providing training for units preparing for air and space expeditionary force taskings.
I attended the Euronaval exposition held in Paris the week of November 3, 2024.
I had a chance to visit the Finnish booth at the show and watch the launch of their report on Finnish technologies in the Baltic Sea presented to the show.
And then I had the opportunity to talk with Tuija Karanko, the Secretary General of the Association of Finnish Aerospace and Defence Companies.
As the abstract contained in the report sums the report up:
The Baltic Sea presents a uniquely challenging operational environment for naval defence due to its shallow waters, complex archipelagos, and harsh climatic conditions. These geographic and environmental factors, combined with the increasing strategic importance of the region, demand specialized technologies and innovative solutions to ensure maritime security, protect critical infrastructure, and maintain uninterrupted sea lines of communication.
This document outlines the key challenges posed by the Baltic Sea and highlights the advanced solutions developed by the Finnish defence industry to address them. If it performs in Finland’s challenging conditions, it will perform anywhere.
The narrative focuses on three critical areas: securing sea lines of communication, naval mine warfare, and mission enablers.
Securing sea lines of communication requires comprehensive surveillance and anti-submarine warfare capabilities to monitor both surface and subsurface threats in the region’s congested and shallow waters. Naval mine warfare leverages the region’s natural geographical features, making it an effective method for area denial and protecting vital assets, with advanced Finnish mine technology playing a central role.
Mission enablers, such as ice-capable vessels, resilient ship technologies, and advanced damage control systems, ensure that naval operations can continue in the region’s demanding conditions.
Through these technological innovations and strategic solutions, the Finnish defence industry is contributing to enhanced naval defence capabilities in the Baltic Sea, ensuring the security and stability of this critical maritime region
Since we last talked two years ago at the previous Euronaval show, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO and Russian aggression against Ukraine has created a very clear threat of Russia to Europe.
But for Finland this is no shock as the country has never focused on peace dividends nor lowered its guard in the Putin period.
Now the Nordic countries are all in NATO and working together in key ways to integrate their defense efforts.
As Karanko highlighted now the three European countries in the High North can work more closely together in the region.
She noted: “When we think of the northern region of the Nordics, an area which we call Lapland in Finland and Sweden and Finnmark in Norway which is basically the area above the Arctic Circle, now the three countries can work closely together. Previously, only Norway was in NATO but now the three countries can shape NATO capabilities in the region.”
She pointed out that Finnish technology has been designed for this harsh environment and has been built to NATO standards for a considerable period. Now their technology can appeal to a larger market.
Of course, Nordic defense integration efforts certainly preceded the ascension of Sweden and Finland to NATO. For years, Sweden and Finland, for example, have worked together on operations and on enablers for operations.
Finnish defense companies are growing due not only to Finland joining NATO but due to the serious security situation facing Northern Europe.
Frankly, whatever happens in terms of settling the war in Ukraine, Putin has stimulated what was impossible before his deliberate armed aggression against modern Europe – Northern Europe working together on defense and security within a NATO framework.
And this is especially important given the importance of the high North in terms of resources and of the opening of the northern passage through which the Chinese now operate as well.
See also our comprehensive look at the return of direct defense in Europe which highlights the significant role which infrastructure protection will play in shaping the way forward.
U.S. Marines with Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron (VMGR) 152, Marine Aircraft Group 12, 1st Marine Aircraft Wing participate in Exercise Evergreen 2024 on and around Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Aug. 9-29, 2024. Exercise Evergreen 2024 allows VMGR-152 to conduct various training, including joint training with the U.S. Army and Air Force, to maintain the squadron’s high level of proficiency in supporting 1st Marine Aircraft Wing operations in the Indo-Pacific region.
JOINT BASE LEWIS-MCCHORD, WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES