The Challenge of the Dodgy Dossier: Trump and the Main Stream Media

01/17/2017

2017-01-17 By Kenneth Maxwell

Donald Trump has always seen the Main Stream Media (MSM) as his competitors and frequently enemies.

The press was the most vilified target during his raucous Presidential campaign. Attacking the press always drew the loudest and most popular response from his followers, other than attacking “crooked Hillary ” which was always meet with enthusiastic chants of “lock her up.”

But the MSM was also Donald Trump’s most effective bull horn, for they seem always ready to give him free publicity.

Trump is also a master at the use of Twitter, and he has used his “tweets” to communicate directly with the general public.

He is not the first political leader to use direct communication with the public. The legendary Mayor of New York City, Fiorello La Guardia, used comic books to get his message across to the public, and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt used his radio “fireside chats” during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

But no-one has matched Donald Trump’s “tweet” blizzard.

And Donald Trump has consistently outflanked the traditional media gatekeepers: the news editors and columnists.

But this has infuriated them, and they seem constantly looking for ways to get revenge.

The “dirty dossier” of unsubstantial allegations collated about Trump and his connections to Russia by a former British MI6 spy, Christopher Steele, who co-found Orbis Business Intellegence in Belgravia, and who had worked at the UK embassy in Moscow in the early 1990s, has provided the most recent opportunity to play this game.

Christopher Steele is seen in a photo obtained by CBS News.

Steele’s 35 page dossier was first funded by anti-Trump Republican lobbyists, and later by Democrats, and had been circulating in Washington since July.

It was published by BuzzFeed, a New York City based internet company, which has also ironically faced accusations of plagerism and unreliability.

But the “leaking” of the Steele dossier, and the timing of the leak, has emboldened the enemies of Donald Trump on Capital Hill, most notably Republican Senator John McCain, who apparently gave the dossier to the FBI director James Comey, and who is demanding a probe into the Russians role in the U.S. election.

And it also encourages other Republican Trump critics and competitors like Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Marco Rubio.

There is no loser like a sore loser.

The dossier is explosive precisely because it gets to the heart of the allegations about Trump’s cosy relationships with Vladimir Putin.

And it contains unverified and salacious allegations about Trump covorting with prostitutes while in Moscow which opens him to alleged potential blackmail. And is part of the ongoing allegations about Russian interference in the hacking and release by Wikileaks of Hillary Clinton and John Podesta’s e-emails during the Presidential campaign which adversely impacted the democratic candidate’s reputation.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at Trump Tower on January 11, 2017. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Trump has clearly argued that the dossier notably by being published on website like Buzz Feed is less than credible.

And he has upped his attacks on the US intelligence “community”  accusing them at his first press conference since July of behaving like “Nazi Germany.”

There is little doubt that as he comes to power reform of the intelligence community is part of what will change in Washington.

The dossier goes to the heart of the most serious allegations about Russian interference on the U.S. electoral process and became, also predictably, the principal topic at the news conference held at Trump Tower in Manhattan on January 11, just a week before his inauguration on 20th January.

The press conference had been intended to discuss Trump’s plans to shift control of Trump enterprises to his two adult sons. Instead Trump was able to level Jim Acosta of CNN who he accused of purveying “false news.”

Buzz-feed he claimed was spreading an “unverified piece of garbage.”

But the problem for the MSM is simply that they are not in control of the public agenda, and the reported reforms coming where the White House Press Corps will be moved out of the White House, is certainly part of a process where the MSM is not gaining ground on being a credible “watchdog for the incoming Administration.

But the ongoing conflict can hurt Trump as well.  He can get snared into in a critical response cycle where his positive impacts are attenuated.

It is ironic, that Trump’s preferred communications methodology, the internet, and leaks, tweets and unverified accusations, are being used by the MSM as part of the arsenal of ongoing attacks, but rather than becoming a credible watchdog they are being reduced to targets of the Tweet arsenal of the incoming President.

Editor’s Note: There is a clear challenge with regard to the use of Tweets for foreign audiences certainly.

In an editorial published in The Australian on January 13, 2017, the concern was expressed that the President-elect needs to rise above scurrilous attacks and focus on the need to reassure the world. The editorial noted that much of the U.S. media has turned feral and BuzzFeed was characterized as a “click bait factory” that boasts that when in doubt about whether claims are true or not one should simply publish anyway.

The point was that although Trump has every right to bash the feral quality of the MSM, it comes at a cost.

“Mr. Trump needs to do much more to look, act, and sound presidential.”

Editor’s Note: If you would like to comment on this article, please go to the following:

The Case of the Dodgy Dossier

 

Eurofighter Typhoons Control Austrian Airspace: Providing Air Security for the World Economic Forum

2017-01-17 According to a press release issued by Eurofighter on January 16, 2017, Eurofighter Typhoons belonging to the Austrian Armed Forces will secure the airspace on the occasion of the World Economic Forum 2017 in Davos.

The World Economic Forum will be held in the Swiss ski resort from January 17 to 20.

According to the organizers, about 3,000 participants from politics, business and society, including numerous Heads of State and Government, will join this high-level event.

The Eurofighter Typhoons are an essential element of this year’s airspace security operation “Daedalus 17” in Austria and thus support the comprehensive security measures for this internationally renowned conference in Switzerland.

Eurofighter’s Chief Executive Officer, Volker Paltzo, emphasized on the day before the event: “As the proven backbone of European air defence, Eurofighter Typhoons are able to reliably protect the airspace of our customer nations.

Due to their maneuverability, agility and performance, they are predestined to fulfil this task quickly and effectively.

The operational capabilities of the Eurofighter Typhoon also play an important role in securing such a major conference as the World Economic Forum.”

In recent years, all 15 Eurofighter Typhoons stationed in Zeltweg have been equipped with a more powerful hardware and software, now complying the latest capability standard for Tranche 1 aircraft.

As in Austria, the Eurofighter Typhoons are also available around the clock for Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) missions for the Air Forces in Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain and Saudi Arabia.

In addition, they are currently being deployed in the Baltic States to secure the airspace of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as part of the NATO mission “Baltic Air Policing“.

Since Eurofighter Typhoon entered service in 2003, more than 490 aircraft have already been delivered. The global Eurofighter Typhoon fleet has now successfully completed more than 380,000 flying hours.

For a look at the Eurofighter QRA roles, see the following:

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/visiting-albacete-airbase-eurofighter-operations-and-support/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/return-to-raf-lossiemouth-the-perspective-of-group-captain-paul-godfrey/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/visiting-quick-reaction-alert-north/

Shaping a 21st Century Defense Strategy: The Norwegian Way Ahead

01/16/2017

2017-01-08 By Robbin Laird

Norway stands at an interesting global and historical point in the evolution of Western defense.

It faces directly resurgent Russia and faces the challenge with its Nordic partners of Baltic defense as well.

Then with the Arctic opening and the High North actually part of Norwegian territory Arctic security and defense are not an abstract intellectual issue for a Washington seminar, but an integral part of the shaping an effective way ahead.

In effect Norway is enhancing its core defense capabilities for national and coalition purposes.

It is part of what we have referred to as a deterrence in depth strategy whereby national components can operate as tip of the spear or support elements to core coalition partners crucial to Norwegian defense and strategic interests.

Notably, air and naval power modernization is a key part of the Norwegian effort as well as shaping the kind of ground maneuver defense capability appropriate to its territory and Arctic operations.

The Norwegian effort gains greater significance not simply from the resurgence of Russia but political developments in Europe itself, namely Brexit and its follow on consequences. It is clear that a post-Brexit defense policy highlights the importance to Britain of a North Sea and Baltic defense strategy and with that its relationships with the Nordic states.

New platforms have been or are coming into the Norwegian Armed Forces which support the evolution of a deterrence in depth strategy.

The acquisition of Aegis class ships has been an important baseline to shape a way ahead with air and potentially missile defense for the country and a major contributor to the regional capabilities for deterrence in depth.

nansen-port-bow

In an article by Edward H. Lundquist published on March 25, 2015, the key role of the Aegis ships was highlighted within Norwegian defense.

Norway’s five Fridtjof Nansen Aegis-guided missile frigates were built for escort operations in the North Atlantic and defending Norway’s long, rugged coastline, but have found themselves working in warmer waters.

Norway has participated in coalition operations, including NATO’s Operation Active Endeavour in the Mediterranean and the Combined Maritime Forces in the Middle East. Most recently, the lead ship in the class, HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen, participated in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational exercise in waters off Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast.

Commander (SG) Odd Erling Furu, commanding officer of the Nansen, says coalition operations requires a high degree of interoperability, with similar systems and common communications and data links, such as LINK 11 and 16. “The Nansen-class is highly interoperable with the U.S. Navy. We have the Aegis systems capable of a tight integration with other Aegis ships. We hold the relevant SATCOM-facilities supporting command and control such as CENTRIX, chat, mail, VTC and other systems as required.”

Beyond systems, Furu says there are the usual differences in procedures, ways and means to exercise command and control, and human beings with different cultures, but that his ship and crew is able to work effectively with the USN in both low intensity and high intensity warfighting. “To achieve the necessary interoperability, in practical terms, it’s necessary to train regularly with the USN. The Nansen-class has conducted several exercises with carrier strike groups, and we recently participated in RIMPAC – which is quite a long trip from Norway – more than 10,000 nm.”

“These exercises are important to ensure that we are ready to operate in a coalition, and equipped and trained to cooperate with our most important ally, the United States of America,” Furu says. “The Nansen class is, from my point of view, an attractive partner and [able] to really integrate and contribute in a U.S.-led coalition.”

 http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/hnoms-fridtjof-nansen-built-to-defend-norways-rugged-coastline/’’

We have argued for some time that the Aegis ships are highly complimentary to the F-35 and have argued respectively that the F-35 can contribute to the “long reach of Aegis, or Aegis could function as the wingman of the F-35.

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-01/long-reach-aegis

https://sldinfo.com/f-35-and-aegis-preparing-for-the-integrated-fight-in-the-extended-battlespace/

https://sldinfo.com/pacific-strategy-vii-“aegis-is-my-wingman”/

Not surprisingly, the F-35 is coming to the Norwegian forces as a key bedrock system for the evolution of the strategic way ahead.

It is not simply about the aircraft but its integration into the national or coalition forces with which Norway operates to provide the deterrence in depth necessary for national and regional defense.

norges-forste-f-35-fms

Next month, the Norwegians are holding a conference which will highlight some of the contributions anticipated by the acquisition of the F-35 for Norwegian forces.

On Feburary 7-9 2017, a conference entitled “Evolution to a Fifth Generation Air Force: Norway’s Shield and Sword?”

According to the Norwegian MoD website:

Norway is about to purchase fifty-two F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Both the Norwegian Minister of Defense (MoD) and Chief of Defense (ChoD) argue that the F-35 will be a key capacity for the defense of Norway.

Even so, the purchase of the F-35 has generated a public debate that has raised important questions such as: How should we use the new combat aircraft? Do we have adequate competence to exploit the potential of this platform? What kind of defense structure will Norway have in the future? Are the primary rationales behind the purchase rooted in national defense, international operations or both?

The Royal Norwegian Air Force has coined the phrase “a Fifth Generation aircraft demands a Fifth Generation Air Force”. The premise seems to to be that the current air force organization needs to develop something it currently does not possess in order to fully exploit this platform once it is fully operational in 2025.

The emphasis on the idea of “a Fifth Generation Air Force” is increasing. But what kind of competence, organization, and technology must be in place over the next 8-10 years in order for us to become a “Fifth Generation Air Force”?

The Norwegian Minister of Defense claims that Norway has become a medium NATO power – presumably largely due to the fact that this is a substantial investment that most nations in NATO cannot afford. It is likely that this investment will lead to commitments to other nations that we otherwise would not have had: once you have acquired these platforms, the political pressure to use them will increase.

The question remains whether Norway can muster officers with broad and professional competence, who can influence processes on all levels (not only the tactical one) in international operations.

Thus, how we define “a Fifth Generation Air Force” is central for addressing these issues.

The conference aims to reflect on and discuss the very premises for the current debate on defense in Norway and NATO, and how airpower will play a central role in this picture. We also want to examine the key international military conceptual (strategic) trends that are likely to influence Norway in the coming decade.

Furthermore, the conference aims to challenge the Air Force to answer more specifically what “a Fifth Generation Air Force” is, and what is needed in order for us to become one.

Finally, we would like to invite the Army, the Navy and the Norwegian Operational Headquarter to present their expectations and perspectives on “a Fifth Generation Air Force”, and the purchase of the joint resource that the F-35 is.

https://forsvaret.no/hogskolene/Sider/English.aspx

Norwegian F-35 Conference

An additional capability being added to the force are five P-8s. and the role of these aircraft will be clearly linked to coalition as well as national defense.

And here the key role seen by the British with regard to Norway and the Nordics is very clear indeed.

According to a news story published on December 6, 2016, the Norwegian decision was discussed.

Norway signaled its intention to become the fourth export customer for the Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. It will buy five for delivery in 2021-22 as a replacement for six Lockheed Martin P-3 Orions and three Dassault Falcon 20s, all of which were delivered in the 1990s.

The cost will reportedly be $1.5 billion, including sensors and weapons.

Meanwhile, Boeing delivered the first of eight P-8As to the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) last month.

“The P-8A is exactly what we need to maintain our important contribution to the [NATO] alliance,” said Norwegian minister of defense Ine Eriksen Soreide.

“The maritime domain is becoming more important as we speak,” she added. The country’s maritime area of responsibility is large, about seven times its land mass.

The Norwegian Parliament must approve the acquisition,and is expected to do so this month.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2016-12-06/norway-acquire-p-8s-boeing-delivers-australia

In a story we published November 11, 2016, we highlighted the importance of this development for the UK and its relationship with Norway as well.

https://sldinfo.com/enhancing-northern-tier-defense-the-uk-and-norway-prepare-for-the-coming-of-the-p-8/

The Chute Adapter is built into the Norwegian F-35As on the final assembly line at Fort Worth.
The Chute Adapter is built into the Norwegian F-35As on the final assembly line at Fort Worth.

According to a story on the UK Ministry of Defence website, the UK and Norway have agreed on new cooperation on Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

With the coming of the P-8 to the RAF, the UK MoD is looking to ways to enhance its impact on defense in the North Sea and beyond.

Sir Michael, who visited Norway’s top military headquarters, close to the Arctic Circle on Thursday, announced that the UK and Norway would work closer on Maritime Patrol Aircraft cooperation, including in reducing costs and increasing operational effectiveness.

The UK announced that it would procure nine Boeing P8 MPA in last year’s Strategic Defence and Security Review.

The new capability, which will be based in Scotland, will allow for enhanced situational awareness in key areas such as the North Atlantic, and will also further increase the protection of the UK’s nuclear deterrent and our two new aircraft carriers.

Sir Michael also visited Norway’s Bodø Main Air Station, home of two F-16 squadrons and a squadron of Search and Rescue Sea King helicopters, where he signed a new agreement on host nation support for UK exercises in the country, further increasing the UK and Norway’s ability to exercise, train and operate together.

Mr Fallon welcomed the fact that British armed forces undertake yearly winter training in Norway, particularly 3 Commando Brigade in Harstad and Evenes and elements of Joint Helicopter Command at Bardufoss.

 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-norway-agree-new-cooperation-on-maritime-patrol-aircraft

In short, as Norway works on the integration of its Aegis ships with the F-35s and P-8s. it will be shaping a 21st century defense capability which is important to Norwegian defense and deterrence depth.

screen-shot-2017-01-09-at-7-25-59-am

future-acquisitions-for-the-norwegian-armed-forces-2015-2023

Editor’s Note: For a good overview on the Norwegian perspective on defense and security, see the 2014 report of the Commission on Norwegian Security and Defence Policy.

In December 2014, the Norwegian Minister of Defence tasked an independent group of experts on Norwegian security and defence policy to advice on the Norwegian Armed Forces’ ability to solve their most demanding tasks in severe crises and war.

This advice will be an important contribution to the debate on the Armed Forces’ preparedness to handle threats against Norway and Norwegian security.

The Expert commission on Norwegian security and defence policy presented its analysis to Minister of Defence Ine Eriksen Søreide on April 28th, 2015.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/defence/ltp/ny-langtidsplan-for-forsvarssektoren/the-expert-commission-on-norwegian-security-and-defence-policy/id2480914/

unified-effort

For an insightful overview on the F-35 written by a Norwegian F-35 pilot, see the following:

Landingsrunden i F-35

 

 

Sino-Indian Competition in the Maritime Domain

2017-01-16  By Jonathan Ward

Published by The Jamestown Foundation China Brief

January 13, 2017

The naval build-up of the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, will contribute to a new era in the importance of naval power. Owing in part to a collapse in relations in the late 1950s and early 1960s which culminated in the China-India Border War of 1962, relations between China and India continue to be marked by distrust. In the past, geopolitical tensions between China and India were largely confined to the Himalayas, where the border dispute between the two nations remains unresolved. In this century, however, the geopolitics of China-India relations are increasingly defined by the maritime domain.

The Himalayan territories of the disputed China-India border were once considered a “life-line” by Chinese leaders, important to the CCP’s consolidation of control over Tibet following the founding of the PRC. Today, Chinese interests and activities have expanded significantly beyond the regions that defined China-India relations in the past.

As the world’s leading nation in trade, surpassing the United States in 2013, owning the fourth largest commercial shipping fleet, and many of the world’s largest deep water ports, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, the Chinese economy, and the imperative for Chinese leaders to sustain economic growth, is defined by maritime engagement with the globe.

With this comes great vulnerabilities, and a new dimension to China-India relations in which naval power will be paramount.

Both China and India are dependent on sea-borne trade and shipping routes. Hemmed in by the Himalayas to its north and gaining little economically from its neighbor Pakistan, India’s natural geography is maritime.

The South Asian nation depends on the sea for 90 percent of its trade by volume and for 90 percent of its oil imports, with the majority of its imported oil coming from the nearby Persian Gulf (MEA, March 20, 2015).

India’s maritime geography is hospitable as the nation dominates the Indian Ocean region with easy access to some of the world’s most vital sea lanes. China’s economic life-lines, by contrast, pass through much more difficult terrain.

China’s Indian Ocean Dependency: the “Malacca Dilemma”, the South China Sea, and China’s Growing Presence in the Indian Ocean

As China’s global economic footprint increases, its Indian Ocean dependency is increasing in kind. Chinese access to vital African resources, Persian Gulf oil and gas, and sea-borne trade with Europe all depends on the passage of these goods across the Indian Ocean.

To reach the People’s Republic, all of this must then pass through the Straits of Malacca, a narrow, pirate-infested waterway which is less than two miles across at its narrowest point. The Straits of Malacca is one of the world’s most significant maritime chokepoints: 25 percent of the world’s traded goods and 25 percent of all sea-borne oil pass through it.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, roughly 80 percent of China’s imported oil passes through the Straits, leading President Hu Jintao to label this strategic bottleneck the “Malacca Dilemma” in 2003. [ref]Marc Lanteigne Asian Security, China’s Maritime Security and the “Malacca Dilemma”, 4:2, 2008. pp.143–161.[/ref]

The phrase encapsulates two problems: on one hand the fact that the lifeblood of China’s economy must pass through a two mile wide channel after transiting the Indian Ocean, and on the other hand, the concern that, as President Hu phrased it, “certain powers” could control the Straits and put China at risk with comparative ease.

Importantly, China’s dependence on the Indian Ocean is likely to be long-standing.

As Professor Zhang Li, director of security and diplomatic studies at Sichuan University’s Institute of South Asian Studies explained to this author in 2014, the Indian Ocean would be the region which most of China’s energy imports would transit “for the next forty years”, also explaining that “There is a very strong fear in India about China’s intentions in the Indian Ocean” (China Brief, June 19, 2014). Indeed, as China takes steps to offset its Malacca dilemma by building both military and industrial infrastructure in the Indian Ocean region, frictions with India are likely to increase.

Chinese infrastructure building in the Indian Ocean region is taking place under the framework of “One Belt, One Road”, (OBOR) an initiative to build up ports, pipelines, roads and railways that will link Eurasia, Africa, and the Indian Ocean more closely to China, facilitating the transport of goods and natural resources to and from the People’s Republic. Chinese or Chinese-funded port building is underway or under contract in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar, and along the East African coast.

The heart of OBOR’s Indian Ocean initiatives is arguably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, (CPEC) a $46 billion investment plan by the PRC to build port and overland infrastructure links that would give China access to the Arabian Sea just to the east of the Persian Gulf.

Along with existing port-to-rail facilities in Myanmar that link the Bay of Bengal to China’s southern Yunnan province, CPEC provides a major potential offset to the “Malacca Dilemma”. Importantly for India, however, China’s infrastructure building in the Indian Ocean is not purely for economic purposes.

China’s 2015 Defense White Paper, made clear that “[T]he security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources, strategic sea lines of communications (SLOCs), as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad, has become an imminent issue” (SCIO, May 29, 2015). The document tasks the People’s Liberation Army with “safeguard[ing] the security of China’s overseas interests” and tasks the PLA Navy (PLAN) with “gradually shift[ing] its focus from “offshore waters defense” to the combination of “offshore waters defense” with “open seas protection” (China Brief, June 19, 2015).

The first signs of this shift in naval focus are taking place in the Indian Ocean region.

While the PLAN has been participating in multi-national anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa since 2008, signs of a more permanent Indian Ocean presence, as well as the use of China’s OBOR architecture and relationships for military purposes have emerged. In 2016, the PRC began construction on its first overseas military base, in Djibouti. In 2014, a PLAN nuclear submarine and military support ship docked in Colombo, Sri Lanka, alarming New Delhi, and in 2015, a Chinese submarine docked in Karachi, demonstrating that the long-standing China-Pakistan partnership also has value for the projection of naval power (Times of India, June 27, 2015).

Chinese island building in the South China Sea should also be viewed in an Indian Ocean context.

Taken together with a new overseas military base in Djibouti, China is effectively building up military infrastructure at both ends of the Indian Ocean, on both ends of the sea-lanes which the Chinese economy has come to depend on.

Additionally, military infrastructure in the South China Sea offers China protection for its major submarine base at Sanya on Hainan island.

South China Sea military infrastructure also offers China an advantage in the event of any military blockade of Malacca such as that which concerned President Hu in 2003.

A pattern may therefore be emerging, of South China Sea military infrastructure as a basing point for PLAN patrolling in the Indian Ocean Region. While OBOR-related infrastructure has been used militarily, China is also expanding its Indian Ocean naval presence by proxy, supplying Pakistan with eight diesel electric submarines, and thus giving India’s neighbor a transformative boost in its undersea capabilities (Tribune [Pakistan], August 31, 2016).

Chinese rhetoric has likely done little to allay Indian concerns about either China’s growing Indian Ocean presence or China’s use of strategic relationships in the region. As Professor Shen Dingli of Fudan University stated earlier this year: “China actually has many ways to hurt India. China could send an aircraft carrier to the Gwadar port in Pakistan. China turned down Pakistan’s offer to station military units in the country.

If India forces China to do that, of course we can put a navy at your doorstep.” Gwadar port, of course, is at the heart of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

China’s Maritime Power and India’s Growing Navy

The Indian Navy, in its 2015 maritime security strategy, shows that India’s “Primary Areas of Interest” cover the entire Indian Ocean, from the Cape of Good Hope to Indonesia’s Lombok Straits, including the Straits of Malacca (see map).

Chinese fears of Indian naval capabilities are subtle, but long-standing. While Indian analysts and planners have long had their concerns about Chinese port building in the Indian Ocean, fearing encirclement by a “string of pearls”, Chinese analysis has pointed out a further complication to the “Malacca dilemma” presented by India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands, just west of Malacca.

One Chinese naval analyst has suggested that India could fortify these islands into a “metal chain” that could blockade Malacca, and others have suggested that the Andamans could be used as a “strategic springboard” for India’s “Look East” policy, or for forward basing to reach into the South China Sea.

Chinese strategic concerns aside, India is engaged in a significant naval build up, aiming to have a 200 ship navy by 2027 (Economic Times [India], July 16, 2015).

Moreover, the South Asian nation is actively coordinating with other major democracies that are embroiled in maritime disputes due to Chinese claims in the East and South China Seas in the West Pacific.

In 2015, the annual Malabar naval exercises between India and the United States were upgraded to include Japan as a permanent member. India and Australia also began conducting bilateral naval exercises in 2015. India and the US have established a Joint Working Group on Aircraft Carrier Technology, and India may receive advanced carrier technology from the United States, including use of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) created for America’s Gerald R. Ford class carriers, on its second indigenous aircraft carrier (The Diplomat, February 24, 2016).

This year, India and the United States discussed cooperation on anti-submarine warfare, and also signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) which allows India and the US to use each other’s military facilities for supplies and repairs, all of which demonstrates that US-India defense cooperation is moving forward (Indian Express, August 31, 2016).

The two nations issued a statement called “Joint Strategic Vision for Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region” in 2015, which mentioned “safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation…especially in the South China Sea” (Whitehouse.gov, January 1, 2015). The joint vision also mentioned “support for regional economic integration” and “accelerated infrastructure connectivity”, suggesting that it could be further developed as a counter-point to China’s OBOR initiative.

Sensitive technology sharing, establishment of new naval partnerships, and assistance in the build-up of India’s naval capacity all show an embrace of Indian aspirations as a naval power by major maritime democracies.

However, India’s naval presence goes beyond the U.S.-Japan-India trilateral. Indian naval outreach in Southeast Asia has also intensified. In 2015, India signed the Joint Vision Statement on Defence Cooperation with Vietnam, and this year two Indian warships, a stealth frigate and a corvette, visited Cam Ranh Bay (Indian Navy, May 30, 2016). India inaugurated naval exercises with Indonesia in 2015, and the Indian Navy has trained Vietnamese submariners at Visakhapatnam (Indian Navy, May 10, 2015; Times of India, October 28, 2014).

Indian maritime security outreach in the Indian Ocean itself is also underway, with Modi’s visit to the Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka in 2015, where an Indian-led initiative on maritime surveillance has begun, which is meant to establish radar stations in these Indian Ocean island nations.

Conclusions

 China’s geopolitical challenge is breaking out of what it sees as encirclement or containment, both by foreign militaries and by geography itself. As the country is economically dependent on global sea-borne trade, and as its interests proliferate to every continent, the importance of naval power will be paramount. Liu Huaqing, China’s most influential naval strategist, envisioned a Chinese navy capable of reaching the First Island Chain by 2000 and the Second Island Chain by 2020.

The corresponding rise of the Chinese navy and the proliferation of anti-access/area-denial capabilities that threaten the US Navy in the West Pacific continues to occupy the attention of the US defense and policy-makers.

However, China’s most vital economic interests may in fact lie in the Indian Ocean Region, and here, China expands its military footprint both at far greater risk geographically than it does in pursuing “near seas” operations, and also in the presence of another major power engaged in its own determined naval rise.

The PRC will continue to do all it can to circumvent its confounding geographical puzzle in Malacca, including showing great interest in a future waterway—the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route.  As Chinese leaders employ the full range of the nation’s resources: diplomacy, financial power, engineering capabilities, and of course the building of a substantial blue-water navy and submarine fleet, China’s strategic presence in the Indian Ocean will continue to grow, contributing in turn to India’s own emphasis on naval power.

There is little doubt that sea power in this century will be defined by the rise of the Chinese and Indian navies.

Jonathan Ward has recently completed his DPhil at the University of Oxford, specializing in China-India relations, with a dissertation on the China-India Border War of 1962. He studied Philosophy, Russian and Chinese at Columbia University in New York City as an undergraduate, and continued his language studies at Beijing University in China and St. Petersburg State University in Russia. From 2006 – 2011 he lived and traveled extensively in Russia, China, Latin America, and the Middle East, and speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish and Arabic. He consults on China-India relations, the Indian Ocean Region, and Maritime Asia for Oxford Analytica, and is a Research Associate at Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme.

Additional source cited: Winner Holmes and Yoshihara, Indian Naval Strategy in the Twenty-first Century, Routledge 2009.

https://jamestown.org/program/sino-indian-maritime-competition/

 

Evolving Technological Threats: The Coming of High-Speed Maneuvering Weapons

01/15/2017

2017-01-08 By Robbin Laird

As Mark Lewis, the former Chief Scientist of the USAF, has warned repeatedly, high speed weapons, notably hypersonic ones, are on the way and will be part of the evolving threat environment.

As he wrote in 2010:

Aerospace engineering is ultimately about pushing the boundaries, and nothing does that quite like hypersonics.

There is no single subject that can captivate the imagination of our next generation; no single technology that holds such potential for changing the Air Force’s technology landscape.

The inexorable march of progress makes it all but certain that there will be hypersonic vehicles operating within, and through, our atmosphere.

The only real questions are when and which nations’ flags will adorn them.

(For our initial Special Report on Hypersonics, see the following:

https://sldinfo.com/hypersonics-special-report/).

In a recent report of the Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Defense Against High-Speed Weapons chaired by Mark Lewis and published by the National Academies of Science, this dynamic threat is discussed in detail.

Artist's Impression of Chinese Hypersonic Missile.

Artist’s Impression of Chinese Hypersonic Missile.

The core point is summarized as follows:

“The ability of the United States to sustain its presence around the world and leverage its global reach is dependent on both U.S. Navy and USAF forward deployment.

At a military operational level, HSMWs may impede operations, global vigilance, maintenance, and supporting logistics.

At a national strategic level, High Speed Maneuvering Weapons or HSMWs could hold at risk the fundamental U.S. construct of global reach and presence.”

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23667/a-threat-to-americas-global-vigilance-reach-and-power-high-speed-maneuvering-weapons

NAS Study

We have focused on the what one might call the S Cubed revolution as a way to incorporate the HSMW threat and capability into an evolving US and allied force structure.

In a piece published on April 16, 2014, we highlighted the S Cubed Revolution.

We have heard much about the anti-access, and area-denial threat which China poses to American and allied forces in the Pacific.  We have read much about new missiles such as the DF-21, which it is asserted can destroy maneuvering ships at sea to take off the board US aircraft carriers.  We have read of Pacific allies wish to deploy substantial fleets of F-35s, and then critics decide that these “short range” assets can not meet the crucial needs of warfighting in the Pacific.

We have also learned in the press that core competencies like amphibious assault have now become virtually impossible because of the A2 AD capabilities of China.

What is lost in all of this hyperbole is what the United States and its allies are doing to shape a new combat capability appropriate to the 21st century.  It may be true that a linear air power force would find it difficult to cope with such threats; a distributed S cubed force will not.

Sensors, combined with stealth combined with speed can provide a new paradigm for shaping the Pacific force necessary for the U.S. in working in the Pacific.

At heart of getting the policy agenda right is to understand that warfare is highly interactive.  Buying, building and deploying yesterday’s technologies against evolving threats is a sure fire way of being in the wrong side of the outcome…..

Sensors, stealth and speed can come together to create a powerful distributed force in the Pacific, which can so complicate Chinese military planning as to enhance deterrence significantly. 

A deployed fleet of F-35s – allied and American – in the Pacific lay down a strong stealth and sensor-enabled honeycomb of deployed kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities. 

The reach of the fleet is such that a 21st century equivalent of the world war II big blue blanket can be created…..

https://sldinfo.com/the-coming-of-the-hypersonic-cruise-missile-a-key-element-of-s-cubed-evolution/

Then in a February 18, 2015 article, Ed Timperlake discussed how best to deal with the hypersonic cruise missile threat.

HSCMs are part of what one might call an S Cubed formula for thinking about military critical technologies for 21st-century targeted R&D.

 S-cubed=sensors-stealth-speed of weapons can provide a new paradigm for shaping a combat force necessary for the US Military to fight and win in 21st century engagements.

 Stealth or no stealth the F-35 fits perfectly into the S3 revolution in modern war

No matter which path is taken, the F-35 as a single platform with all three attributes combined or as a non-stealth sensor platform, employing speed of weapons carried organically or trading off with other platforms at the speed of light by giving incoming target vectors to their weapons.

 A point implicit in the CNO’s discussions is that the order of the words is very important.

 Starting with sensors, then stealth and speed (again of weapons) they can be combined in one stealth platform or as appropriate stealth and speed can be traded off against one another using a separate platform…..

 (Then ) CNO Admiral Greenert has pointed this out before.

As Admiral Greenert correctly points out, improved radars and sensors continue to chip away at stealth. Military advances in technology are always relative against a reactive enemy and are not absolute. Stealth is simply an airframe survivability design feature. Stealth is everything until it is nothing.

 How fast an erosion of stealth design features is a critical question as well as the meaning of detecting stealth within a fluid and rapidly evolving battlespace.

Airframe design characteristics are all blended together in tradeoffs and have been focused on constantly improving, payload (improved by systems/and weapons carried), maneuverability (measured by P Sub s), speed, and range (modified by VSTOL–a basing mobility plus factor).

 Stealth was a clean sheet design for F-22 and F-35 and is embedded in the total airframe and it is a very sensitive multiplicative factor; one does not add stealth. Additionally like all modern fighters stealth aircraft are also designed with inherent other survivability factors, such as system redundancy and hardening.

The CNO’s observation is very true.

Stealth is simply a survivability term that impacts the entire airframe and will eventually decline as better sensors are developed.

This is also why passive sensing is also a real revolution. Passive sensing can attenuate the problem of generating active “signals in space” which often can give away a platform’s position either maneuvering or an absolute fixed location for a counter- attack.

Stealth dynamically over time will become more vulnerable as enemies sensors improve.

How long and against what enemy, and where in world will the ant-stealth sensors and successful weapons be employed is unknown, but it will occur.

The CNO being a Nuke engineer is also exactly right about heat signature. But the US and our allies are also a reactive enemy and a SAM or Cruise missile launch also puts out heat. And so far any enemy still needs a period of active sensing for target acquisition. That requirement is often expressed as “emit you die.”

Modern air combat, just like submarine warfare is essentially an evolving contest of “blind man’s bluff.”

Even if and when stealth survivability deteriorates–ENTER the F-35 fusion cockpit with passive sensing and a significant payload of hard points.

External weapon hard-points on the F-35 are a brilliant design aspect, which is often overlooked in most discussions.

The non-stealth F-35 can sling more ordinance than F/A-18 and F-16.

So even in a non-stealth world, advantage goes to F-35, with its 360 active and passive horizontally linked cockpit decision-making ability.

As the (then) CNO says “payloads over performance.”

Employing stand-off weapons with current and better payloads the F-35 still wins any combat comparison because the S-3 formula kicks in as a combat reality.

An F-35 as a non-stealth fleet still has a 360-degree sensor platform with “reach not range” as a fundamental fleet enabler.

It is an information dominance fusion platform that can be favorably compared to the equivalent of being a 21st Century version of USN Destroyers standing very dangerous and heroic radar picket duty protecting the Amphibious invasion force and Carrier Fleet against kamikazes off Okinawa.

As the (then) CNO pointed out “something moves fast through the air and disrupts molecules in the air and puts out heat – I don’t care how cool the engine can be – it’s going to be detectable.”

Only this time against the HSCM and also a lesser-included problem of killing slower cruise missiles if F-35 did not exist it would have to be invented.

In other words, an additional benefit of R&D and con-ops efforts to kill HSCMs makes taking down conventional CMs much easier.

It is now time to accept that a war-changing weapon, HSCM is in the late stages of R&D and it must be accounted for in any battle plan.  Unlike distant “hyper-sonic” R&D efforts such a Global Strategic Strike aircraft, a hypersonic cruise missile is a rapidly evolving technology, which sooner than later will be demonstrating the art of the possible up close and personal.  Such a revolutionary CM in the US arsenal is a very good thing. In the hands of PLA forces it is a very real “wolf at the door.”

Consequently when, not if, a hypersonic-Cruise Missile is battle ready the Air/Sea Battle staff will have to figure out both offensive and defensive con-ops. In sufficient numbers a hypersonic Cruise Missile can be a war-tipping asset. Employed by US and Allied forces the capability will greatly enable a deadly combat punch.

If it is in the hands of an enemy a hypersonic Cruise Missile is a ship killer.

The Cold War USN CBG protection mantra against Russian Bombers with anti-ship cruise missiles was to try and first kill the archer not the arrows.

Top Gun in the late eighties briefed “Chainsaw” tactics, and the F-14 was very well designed for long-range interception of threats against the Fleet.

“Chainsaw” was a focus on reaching out as far a possible against any threats.

Now if Russian and/or PLAAF successfully air launch HSCMs or their missiles are launched from ground batteries or surface ships or subs (USN fast attack subs are of utmost importance in that battle) they will be engaging in their version of the S-3 formula. Just like the USN and USAF they first need sensors to make it all work. The order of the “S” words in the priority of formula is very important.

If they develop a HSCM to empower their fighting force the F-35 does not have to fight in the stealth mode against HSCMs. Even if HSCMs move at Mach 10 an F-35 sensor platform moves “trons” at the speed of light and this can make all the difference.

It is very evident that all fighting forces need both reach and range. The F-35 today can play both stealth and non-stealth and is a generation better than any other aircraft in the world. One just has to look at Russian and PLAAF attempts to develop a real F-35 capability and their stealth airframe is lacking the sensor systems comparable to F-35. It is a pure marketing assertion that they have fusion parity and DAS.

The F-35 “360 Degree Fusion Cockpit” is good for a decade or more as the never ending action/reaction cycle of our enemies attempt to make their technology and training moves to catch up to US.

US and its Allies are the only airpower thinkers and practitioners that can learn TTPs when F-35, F-22 and legacy aircraft mix it all up at a Red Flag. Russian and PLAAF cannot do that training within a decade. They might claim that they are building fusion cockpits in stealth jets-but currently just by looking at their airframes with no nose sensors or wing sensors, they are simply fusing linear improvements to radar systems. They do not have the complete 360-active/passive reach that the F-35 brings to AA, AG and EW fight.

There is one other significant factor of HSCMs.

A ship has an advantage in that it can maneuver at sea, it also has a distinct disadvantage if a mortal blow is landed it sinks.

Whereas an airfield has a disadvantage in that it is a very well-known fixed point on land but an airfield has a significant advantage in that it can be fortified and also have an operational chance with rapid runway repair and other battle damage repair.

Both the US Navy and US Air Force have the vision and resources to develop the most modern training ranges in the world and a dedicated unified approach to collecting operational intelligence against HSCM airborne “signatures.”

During a visit to Nellis AFB Major General Jay Silveria, Commander of the USAF Warfare Center, pointed out that one of the missions of his command is to create a mission file for the F-35 fleet.

“The mission file includes all of the data about every threat, aircraft, surface-to-air missile, blue aircraft, and airliner, whatever that airplane may see during its flights.

That intel mission data will fill the mission data file that will build is what the airplane then goes in and looks to see when it fuses that target.

The mission data file that we’re building right now in the 513th at the 53rd wing which are part of the Warfare Center were initially building are for the Marines.”

 The value is that USAF, USMC, USN and Allis have the possibility of working off that same mission data library.

The very practical application and perhaps battle tipping aspect of a fleet wide mission data file is that if just one F-35 anywhere anytime gets hit on a HSCM, the entire fleet can have the data.

This is unique capability to be able to prevail in modern war…..

For our Special Report which discusses passive sensing in the context of Tron Warfare, see the following:

https://sldinfo.com/shaping-a-21st-century-approach-to-tron-warfare-2/

Coming to Grips With a Strategic Shift: From Non-Proliferation to Strategic Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age

2017-01-05 By Paul Bracken, Yale University

The most interesting thing about the second nuclear age is that it actually came about.

It wasn’t supposed to happen, at least according to most political science theory. What was supposed to happen after the cold war was a reinvigorated global nuclear nonproliferation regime, which along with U.S. leadership and muscular counter-proliferation policies, that would prevent a second nuclear age from developing.

Anti-nuclear norms — authoritative rules and principles — were expected to enforce this regime.

Nuclear weapons were thought by many to have little value even if you did get them.

What could you do with a nuclear weapon, after all? You could sit on it, in which case it would be a monstrously expensive symbol of folly.

Or, you could fire it, and become a glass parking lot from the certain retaliation.

But the second nuclear age did come about.

What significance does this have, and what can be said about the fact — in comparison to widely held expectation that a second nuclear age wouldn’t arise?

Here I highlight some answers to these questions.

Some definitions are in order. By the “second nuclear age” I mean the spread of nuclear arms for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the cold war (Bracken, The Second Nuclear Age, New York Times Books, 2012). In the 1990s there was a widely held belief that nuclear arms would join the cold war in the graveyard of history.   Nuclear weapons were analyzed in terms of nonproliferation theory, or if not that in terms of disarmament.

The argument was that there was a “twilight of the bomb,” to use a phrase widely embraced at the time. The bomb might last a few years, but its irrelevance to the security challenges of a post cold-war world would make it useful only in largely unimaginable situations. Say, a Russian surprise nuclear attack on U.S. cities. Possible, yes, but hardly conceivable.

This was a core belief in intellectual and academic circles, and in 2009 with President Barrack Obama’s Prague speech, it was brought into official U.S. policy and strategy.

But after the cold war the bomb spread, to India, Pakistan, then and North Korea. Israel’s nuclear arsenal virtually came out into the open, and Iran made a serious push to go nuclear. Others are trying to do so now, or at least hedging their bets with options to do it quickly should the need arise.

The international system is now composed of a constellation of major powers, most of which have nuclear weapons. The United States, Russia, China, India, Britain, and France qualify here. Indeed Japan is the only major power, which doesn’t have it. But Japan is linked into U.S. missile defense and protected by a U.S. security guarantee. In addition, there are three smaller powers, North Korea, Pakistan, and Israel, who also have the bomb.

What do these facts tell us about our initial proposition that a second nuclear age wasn’t supposed to happen?

Obviously, that a second nuclear age wasn’t averted.

More, it says that nuclear weapons have become a foundation for being a major power.

When was the last time anyone even argued that India should give up nuclear weapons and sign the NPT as a non-nuclear state?

This not only isn’t going to happen, it’s an argument that isn’t even made any longer. India couldn’t be an ally to the United States as an offset to China if it also wasn’t a nuclear power.

screen-shot-2017-01-05-at-4-20-39-am

The program for avoiding a second nuclear age — an intensive nonproliferation regime, U.S. leadership, widely embraced anti-nuclear norms by most countries, was not unreasonable. As goals they made perfect sense, for the United States if not for others. I think most strategic analysts would support them as highly desirable, although this can get complicated.

The fact that we are in a second nuclear age shows important features of the emerging international order. Let me underscore that I am talking about international order here, and not winning wars.

So the first big insight is that this order is in fact a nuclear order.

It’s security is based, at bottom, on a threat to blow up large parts of the world, even if one chooses not to acknowledge this, either by talking platitudes or simply not thinking about it. Nuclear war may be unthinkable.

But it isn’t impossible. Because for all of the talk about how no one wants a nuclear war and how inconceivable it is, these weapons are always there.

No one is getting rid of them, not India, Britain, Israel, China, or the United States.

The international system is made up of sovereign states and within the country boundaries most can do pretty much what they please. Most countries have decided not to go nuclear. But some have, and they have found ways to do so in the face of daunting opposition and powerful allies who didn’t want them to do so.

China, Israel, and Pakistan — all have different strategic situations, but share a common feature, that powerful allies opposed their getting the bomb. The biggest determinant of whether a country gets the bomb isn’t major power opposition, norms against it, arms control, or international law like the NPT. It’s whether they want to get it or not.

If they do, they can probably find a way. Short of all out military strikes to destroy their nuclear capacity, or ground invasion and occupation, it’s hard to stop them. None of this is an argument against the NPT, efforts to institutionalize norms, or arms control.

They are simply unlikely to prove effective against a determined state seeking to get the bomb.

Another feature about the second nuclear age is that international order depends to a considerable degree on the structure of the system, rather than academic blueprints for how history should evolve in the future.

We are moving toward a multipolar order.

I don’t mean to invoke any academic theory here, but only to make the point that there are multiple decision-making centers in this system. Not one, and not two, but several.

So, the second nuclear age is a multipolar nuclear order, meaning that most major powers in it have nuclear weapons. This is, obviously, a unique development, since in the cold war only two major powers with the bomb really mattered.

That this is a nuclear order means that escalation and even the willingness to use conventional force is necessarily made in a nuclear context.

A third aspect that the realization of a second nuclear age has come about has to do with military technology. Major powers have lost their monopoly over advanced military technologies. It was in the late 1990s that this happened, as second and third-rate powers (Pakistan, North Korea) could get nuclear weapons.

Now, these countries not only have atomic weapons, they have other tools like drones, cyber arsenals, and mobile missiles. Nuclear weapons were once restricted to big wealthy states with an advanced technology base, major powers. They were the only ones with wealth, and the missiles and long-range bombers to deliver it. Technology was a force that worked against multi-polarity here.

No more. Today Pakistan flies drones, and North Korea is building a nuclear ICBM. Now, technology works toward accelerating multi-polarity, further weakening the monopoly major powers once held.

Finally, the second nuclear age isn’t only a structure.

Like all big structures it has processes and dynamics.

Given the overwhelming policy focus devoted to an alternative structure — of a nuclear-nonproliferation regime and its norms — the strategic dynamics of a second nuclear age have received little attention.

Consider that India is building a triad of nuclear forces, many with MIRV warheads. India will be able to destroy from ten to twenty Chinese cities. China and Russia are expanding their own strategic forces.   Japan is buying into U.S. missile defense, big time. Japan, as well has a U.S. nuclear guarantee. Taken together, with a now certain modernization of U.S. strategic forces, a new “pentapolar war system” is forming in Asia. This has to profoundly shape how China sees the world.

The dynamics of a second nuclear age will determine world order.

They are most unlikely to simply be a replay of cold war dynamics. It’s actually quite fantastic when you think about it.

New nuclear interactions played out on the vast geography of Asia, are most unlike the cold war dynamics of Europe.

The second nuclear age calls for a fresh look at the structures, dynamics, and processes of a world order that many did not want to see come about.

But there’s an old saying that applies here. “You have to play the hand you’re dealt, not the one you wish you were dealt.”

Editor’s Note: We have made the argument that Trump is coming to power when significant strategic shifts are ALREADY under way.

The second nuclear is one of the most important of these.

With the Obama Administration having focused on the strategic atrophy of the importance of nuclear weapons, the Trump Administration will need to deal with the return of the nuclear equation including how these weapons intersect with the use of conventional forces in deterrence and war fighting with peer competitors. 

If you wish to comment on this article you can do so here:

Shifting from A Non-Proliferation to a Strategic Deterrence Paradigm: Coming to Grips with a Strategic Shift

For a discussion of how the nuclear dynamics are playing out in Asia, see the earlier article by Professor Bracken published in Global Asia:

Asia’s Pentapolar Nuclear System 9-29-16

For our earlier Forum on the Second Nuclear Age, see the following:

How to prevail in the Second Nuclear Age?

The One China Paradox: How Does One Become Many?

This is the first of a three part series by Danny Lam on the way ahead for the “One China Policy.

2017-01-15 By Danny Lam

President Xi Jinping of People’s Republic of China will be promoting “free trade” at Davos later this month.   If it is the case that Chinese President is acting in good faith and has the capacity to deliver, it represents an incredible opportunity for the world to reap the benefits of free trade since the original “opening” of China by Deng Xiaoping.

“One China Policy” is the rallying cry of the Beijing based PRC regime and their western “China expert” priesthood.     By that, they mean that Beijing should be the sole channel through which foreign relations between the Chinese civilization and the rest of the world should be conducted to the exclusion of other authorities irrespective of whether Beijing have the capacity to contract.

Imagine being able to negotiate with President Xi’s Beijing and gain access to a market of 1.3 billion people in one stop!

For centuries, the West uncritically accepted such “One China” policies, dealing with the Republic of China, and before that, the Ching Dynasty and its predecessor the Yuan Dynasty, as if the regime had the legitimacy and authority to conduct business for “China” regardless of the facts on the ground.

Xi Jinping is consolidating his control over the Beijing faction. And follows the “multiple” China policy when governing a country with significant regional dynamics. Credit Photo: Mark Ralston /AFP/Getty Images

Unfortunately, this ended badly when the West discovered, ex post facto, that Chinese regimes they are dealing with in fact, do not possess the Western attributes of a legitimate regime: “monopoly on the legitimate use of violence over a defined territory” (Gewaltmonopol des Staates) that is central to the definition of a legitimate regime in the West from Bodin, Hobbes to Weber.

The PRC regime based in Beijing is no different.   Beijing had a tenuous hold on power that for much of its history, and today, does not enjoy a monopoly on violence in territories Beijing claims as its own.

Today, the PRC does not exercise jurisdiction in any Western sense in territories held by Taiwan (ROC), or in territories it claims like Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, over and above maritime territories claimed by PRC that including the South China Sea, East China Sea, Japan, etc.

The PRC Regime tacitly acknowledge that territories that Beijing regard as exercising “indisputable sovereignty” like the South China Sea can, in fact, be both in name and in fact under the dejure and defacto jurisdiction of other sovereign states or other entities, and that the PRC is powerless to enforce its sovereignty claims against armed foreign vessels operating in its “indisputably sovereign” territory.

In other words, the PRC regime do not necessarily exercise sovereignty in the Western sense in territories Beijing considers as theirs with “indisputable” sovereignty, let alone the capacity to enforce trade deals it makes on behalf of their “local” governments.

Since the Beijing regime does not consider a monopoly on violence a necessary and essential feature of “indisputable sovereignty”, there is no reason for Western analysts to project onto the Beijing regime Western notions of what sovereignty means and abide by Western rules that Beijing in fact, does not subscribe to themselves.

Few Western observers recognize that the PRC in fact practices many “one China” policies that no Westphalian state would have accepted.

The PRC has accepted the international recognition of the existence of Taiwan, the Republic of China exercising jurisdiction over Taiwan; and, a similar arrangement for Hong Kong, codified by United States laws like the Hong Kong Policy Act (P.L. No. 102-383m 106 Stat. 1448), and the WTO membership of “Chinese, Taipei” and “Hong Kong, China” that gave international legal recognition to them as a distinct jurisdictions from Beijing that have their own membership and voting rights.

Beyond these examples, the PRC regime’s monopoly on legitimate power is internally constrained by their proclamation of “autonomous regions” that include vast stretches like Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Xinjiang, and “Special Economic Zones” that include many cities and provinces.

Ostensibly, Beijing is a “unitary state” that has no formal, constitutional division of powers between the central government and local authorities like Provinces and in theory, Beijing is supreme.

The reality is Beijing is a very weak center that more often than not, in most matters, act on a quasi-advisory basis to local authorities as long as they display the symbols of obedience and acknowledgement of PRC rule such as displaying the PRC flag.

Beijing’s power to appoint a handful of top officials to “local” governments is not sufficient to ensure that the local authorities do not do their own thing when the Beijing appointees are not looking — which is most of the time.

There is no clear federal or constitutional boundary as to what are the divisions of power between the Beijing regime and the “local” governments or “autonomous regions”.

In practice, it is as much what the “local” or “autonomous” authority can get away with.

That brings us to the problem as to just what powers Beijing have to, a) negotiate on behalf of their “local” authorities, b) enforce any obligations assumed by Beijing (e.g. removing local tariffs and trade barriers).

It is not at all clear that an agreement or treaty signed with the Beijing regime is any more binding than a treaty signed with the Republic of China like the United Nations Charter of 1945 or the GATT signed in 1947.   Any sensible observer would have recognized that GATT signed with the ROC made no sense in 1947 when the ROC was not in control of large swaths of China.   Yet GATT negotiators had no problem with ROC’s accession to GATT.

The West is now in the process of repeating this mistake.

The recent behavior of the PRC in the South China Sea suggests that UNCLOS signed by Beijing in 1982 and ratified in 1996 in fact, are not binding on either Beijing or the Southern Chinese Provinces or Theater Military Commands.   If these deals that are fundamental and core to freedom of navigation upon which free trade rest are not adhered to by the PRC, why should such petty issues as “free trade” obligations by the PRC be adhered to by highly autonomous local governments?

A deal made with Beijing cannot be assumed to be either enforceable at the local authority level or via Beijing.

At least not in the relevant timeframe for commercial deals of months and at most, a few years, and without resorting to military force as was done in the past. To presume the PRC, especially Beijing’s regime will uphold their side of the bargain in a trade deal requires a leap of faith akin to ecclesial beliefs when the authority to negotiate and abide by contractual, or treaty obligations is clearly not effectively monopolized by the Beijing regime over the vast territories it claims sovereignty.

Why should the world be constrained by a “one China” policy making deals when Beijing themselves do not believe in it or rely on it in their exercise of power?

Editor’s Note: If you wish to comment on this article, you can do so here:

Beijing’s Many “One China Policies”

UK Typhoons to Deploy for Air Policing Mission to Romania

2017-01-15 According to a story published on the UK MoD website on January 11, 2107, Typhoons from RAF Coningsby will be based in Romania for three months in summer 2017.

This is part of the upcoming UK contributions to NATO.

UK forces have taken command of NATO’s Response Force’s Land Component and its flagship Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), committing thousands of troops to be on standby and ready to deploy within days.

Defence Minister Earl Howe witnessed the handover to the UK’s Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) at an official ceremony at its headquarters at Imjin Barracks, Gloucester. This includes the VJTF, a force that comprises of 3,000 British troops standing ready, supported by NATO allies, to respond to any threat to the alliance.

As the UK takes over from Spain, the 20th Armoured Brigade will lead VJTF with the 1st Battalion The Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment, the 1st Battalion Grenadier Guards, 26 Regiment Royal Artillery, 35 Engineer Regiment and 1 Logistic Support Regiment also contributing troops.

The US, Denmark, Spain, Norway and Poland will support the UK brigade, adding capabilities such as armoured infantry companies, aviation and mechanised infantry.

Further projecting our global influence, the Royal Air Force has also taken the lead in the air component of the NATO Response Force.

Defence Minister Earl Howe witnessed the handover of the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force at an official ceremony at Imjin Barracks, Gloucester. Crown Copyright.

Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon said:

“With the Alliance’s second biggest and rising Defence budget, Britain is at the heart of NATO. In heading up the VJTF, the UK is taking another leading position in NATO and is sending a clear message that Britain is stepping up to our global defence commitments.

The UK’s Armed Forces stand ready, at a moment’s notice, to defend our allies and protect the British national interest.

Leading the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force is the first of a stream of activity which will see the UK stepping up its leading role in NATO.”

Attending the official ceremony Defence Minister Earl Howe added:

“Witnessing today’s handover, it’s clear to see that our forces are ready to take the lead in the NATO alliance, one of the most important guarantors of British security.”

The UK will also deliver one of four battalions to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltic States and Poland, with a battalion being sent to Estonia from early 2017 and a company deployed to Poland.

In October, the Defence Secretary announced that the UK would commit RAF Typhoon aircraft to the NATO Southern Air Policing mission, offering reassurance to the Black Sea allies.

Deployed from RAF Coningsby, the Typhoons will be based at Mihail Kogălniceanu Airbase, Romania for three months in summer 2017.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-steps-up-to-take-command-of-nato-task-force

According to an article published on October 26, 2016 by Irinia Popescu on Romania Insider:

The British Royal Air Force (RAF) will send Typhoon fighter jets to Romania in 2017, UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon announced on Wednesday, October 26.

The Typhoons will be based at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Airbase in southeast Romania for up to four months next year.

“The Defence Secretary said that the UK will commit RAF Typhoon aircraft to the NATO Southern Air Policing mission to offer reassurance to the Black Sea allies. Deployed from RAF Coningsby, the Typhoons will be based at Mihail Kogalniceanu Airbase, Romania, for up to four months in 2017,” reads a statement from British Ministry of Defense.

The Typhoon aircraft will participate in missions of air police and will counter any infringement of the NATO airspace in the southeast, reports local Digi24.

The UK’s announcement comes as NATO Defense Ministers meet on October 26-27 in Brussels to discuss the plans for a strengthened NATO presence in the eastern part of the Alliance and in the Black Sea region, and Russia’s recent military activity along NATO’s borders.

UK becomes the second NATO ally that sends military equipment to Romania. US will also deploy an armored battalion in Romania in early 2017, part of its commitment to increase military presence in Eastern Europe.

Romania also hosts American troops and military gear at its Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase, close to the Black Sea port of Constanta. Romania also hosts a NATO anti-ballistic missile system at the Deveselu military base.

A NATO command center is already functional in Bucharest and a multinational NATO brigade will also be created in Craiova, southern Romania.

NATO warships have also rotated in the Black Sea regularly in the past two years, also part of the Alliance’s efforts to keep an eye on Russia’s operations in the region, after the annexation of Crimea. US destroyer USS Carney made a stop in Romania’s Constanta port on Tuesday, October 25. The destroyer is equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System.