The Brexit Challenge to European Defense: Italy Proposes a “Schengen of Defence”

09/17/2016

2016-09-17  According to the Italian Ministry of Defence, Italy is looking to expand European defense efforts in the context of the Brexit dynamic.

Minister Pinotti, during a joint interview with Minister of Foreign Affairs Paolo Gentiloni to French magazine  “Le Monde”, expressed her  hope that “a multinational European force based on a joint mandate, i.e. a body with common command, decision-making and budgetary structures” may be established.

minister

In analysing the current situation she added that: “…if we want to counter the populist drift that is building on anti-European feelings, we must offer effective responses to our citizens’ concerns, starting from security. One of the most appropriate responses can rotate around defence. The U.K. exit from the EU will deprive us of a member-state equipped with significant military capabilities: we must develop new common defence perspectives”.

Both ministers focused on the above-named aspects in their analysis of European defence.

 This piece was published on August 11, 2016.

http://www.difesa.it/EN/Primo_Piano/Pagine/gent.aspx

Since then Italy and Germany have joined efforts along the same line.

For example, when Germany’s defense minister visited Lithuania earlier this month she highlighted the core theme as well of greater defense union in the coming of Brexit.

Germany’s defense minister called for a European “defense union” on Thursday during a visit to the Baltic state of Lithuania, where Berlin is preparing to lead a battle group of about 1,000 troops as a deterrence against neighboring Russia.

The European Union has long considered forging closer defense ties while not undermining the U.S.-led NATO alliance, to which many EU member states also belong, especially in the face of a more aggressive Russia and worsening conflicts in the Middle East.

The decision of Britain, a staunch opponent of any EU “army”, to quit the EU has also removed an obstacle to the closer European defense cooperation favored by Germany, France and many eastern European countries.

“It’s time to move forward to a European defense union, which is basically a ‘Schengen of defense’,”, Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius.

“That is what the Americans expect us to do.”

Schengen refers to the passport-free zone covering much of Europe, a pillar of the more integrated Europe that Germany strongly supports.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also recently endorsed the idea of more joint military operations with the three Baltic republics, all NATO and EU members which have felt especially vulnerable following Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Germany already has close military ties and joint forces with Poland, the Netherlands and France outside NATO structures, though Berlin and Paris also say they do not envisage establishing a European army.

“When we have threats that are surrounding us, we all know no country by its own will be able to manage that. But we together, we Europeans, we are very strong if we improve our capabilities as Europeans,” von der Leyen said…..

https://in.news.yahoo.com/german-minister-lithuania-backs-european-defense-union-115600219–finance.html

And prior to the most recent EU summit held in Bratislava, the Italian foreign minister amplified on this idea in the following piece published the day before the summit on September 16, 2016.

From Syria to Iraq, from Daesh [Islamic State] to Libya, and the flows of migrants and refugees, the unrest in the Mediterranean represents a geopolitical priority for Italy. Repeated attacks by Islamic terrorists throughout Europe remind us that domestic and international security are different aspects of the same challenge.

We face a threat both inside and outside our societies that generates fear and uncertainty. The EU must find effective answers to our citizens’ security concerns. This will require an integrated approach that includes increased cooperation on intelligence, police and justice, preventive diplomacy, crisis management and — crucially — a leap forward in a common European defense strategy.

We cannot improve the EU’s capacity to project stability in regions crucial to our security if we do not move our cooperation on defense to a new level. In addition to numerous practical benefits, such an effort would have a strong political impact, as it would underscore our readiness to relaunch the process of European integration.

Following the British vote to leave the EU, the debate over the future of European defense has regained momentum. The United Kingdom’s exit will deprive us of a member state with considerable military capabilities. And yet Brexit opens up new possibilities precisely in this sector. The strengthening of European defense is a key element of the Global Strategy for the European Union, unveiled just a few days after the British referendum. And it will be discussed at this week’s summit in Bratislava.

We are all aware that defense lies at the core of national sovereignty. Any step towards a more integrated European defense requires an immense amount of trust, as well as careful attention to different national histories, constitutional systems and security priorities. Close coordination with NATO will be crucial; the transatlantic relationship is and will remain the bedrock of our common security.

This is why a pragmatic strategy and, above all, political will is so necessary. In Italy’s vision, there are three main areas worth exploring in the pursuit of a common European defense.

The first concerns a comprehensive approach to regional crises. We should work to create a more streamlined and integrated civilian-military structure, in order to ensure a more effective response to complex emergencies. The establishment of a permanent civilian-military headquarters — as has also been suggested by France and Germany — would represent an ambitious step forward in the EU’s capacity for crisis management.

The second area regards the development of defense capabilities. Europe has to acquire the defense capabilities needed to be a prominent player on the international scene. This will necessitate common EU efforts to support the Continent’s defense industry and broaden its industrial and technological base.

The third area involves multinational forces: the establishment of a division-level European Multinational Force, able to carry out a set of pre-determined missions and operations. This initiative would differ from the multinational forces already in place, such as the battlegroups, in the size and composition of the military units. It would also possess a unified strategic command, the endowment of permanent forces and a common budget for operations.

These three areas are not entirely new. Nevertheless, we must acknowledge that in the past we have found it difficult to make significant progress as 28 member states. Today, at a time when decisive external action is required, we need to move forward rapidly.

Italy proposes that a core group of EU countries accelerate their integration in the area of defense, leaving others the option to join at a later stage through an inclusive exercise. Rather than advancing ready-made solutions, this would be the beginning of a political process.

In theory, the Lisbon Treaty provides for stronger integration among a restricted group of consenting member states, via the so-called “Permanent Structured Cooperation.” Italy will continue to take an active part in the debate on how to best employ these provisions. However, the decision-making system to apply them remains especially complex.

That is why we should consider a different path as well, outside the current treaty framework — a policy scheme that, together with Italian Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti, we have called “Schengen for Defense.”

Under this approach, a group of like-minded countries would begin sharing military capabilities and resources on the basis of an ad hoc agreement. The initiative would then be opened to all interested member states, under procedures similar to those adopted in the original Schengen Agreement.

Italy is ready to discuss these and other proposals for the future of European defense with other EU members. The need for political action following the Brexit vote and in view of the upcoming 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome in March 2017 provides us with a window of opportunity. It is time to move toward a common European defense.

Paolo Gentiloni is Italy’s foreign affairs minister.

http://www.teabeleht.com/index.php/maailm/8-maailm/162458-eu-needs-schengen-for-defense

Yet the latest European summit highlighted an Italian position which wants a harder line on dealing with the immigrant influx and raises question about the Italian PM’s belief in the ability to move forward on collective defense.

The aim of Friday’s (16 September) Bratislava summit was to reconnect EU leaders with European citizens, and to convince voters that the EU works for them, not against them….

Leaders pledged never to return to “uncontrolled flows” of migrants of last year, but the term “chaos” used often by Tusk was scrapped, as it was deemed too grim by some.

To reach that goal, member states want to ensure full control of external borders and by the end of the year to have the European Border and Coast Guard fully operational.

In December, leaders are to decide new plans on security and defence cooperation, and see how deeply they can proceed on military cooperation within the existing EU treaties.

At the end of the year, the 27 also plan to seal a deal on the doubling of the investment fund, proposed by EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. In October, they will assess the bloc’s trade policy to provide more protection for European consumers and businesses.

Leaders also decided to send help to Bulgaria to protect its border, and set up an entry-exit system that checks the identity of people before they travel to the EU…..

However, it was Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi who refused to stick to the script.

“I can’t give a joint press conference with Merkel and Hollande. I don’t follow a script to make people believe we all agree,” he told journalists after the summit, according to ANSA news agency.

Renzi said the progress on the migration crisis or rolling back the policy of austerity was not sufficient. “We want to see facts,” he said, adding that the Bratislava summit was a waste of time.

EU officials seemed surprised by Renzi’s belligerent comments, and suggested they were geared towards the Italian electorate, which will vote later this year on a number of crucial reforms on which the Italian PM has bet his political survival.

https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/135130

It is clear that the coming Brexit will have an impact on the defense of Europe; what that will be will be a function of evolving American policies, the British redirection in the context of Brexit and how key members of the Alliance break out on the way ahead for bilateral and multilateral defense arrangements.

 

 

Becoming an F-22 Multi-Tasking Combat Aviator

09/14/2016

2016-09-08 The key to understanding fifth generation combat aviation is sensor fusion and the man-mashine working relationship built into the cockpit.  The F-22 started the  process; the F-35 continues it.

At the heart of the new capability is moving from being a sequential multi-mission pilot directing the combat capabilities of the aircraft, to becoming a multi-tasking decision maker where the machines are processing data and providing information as the task changes.

As ACC Commander, “Hawk” Carlisle described the maturation of the F-22 seen in the current Middle East operations:

Question: You are describing the kill web.

And as the air combat assets get better at off-boarding information and cross-supporting the strike and defense functions, the air combat force will get better.

We asked you about the F-22 as an air battle manager at the Trilateral Exercise. Could we revisit that dynamic?

General Carlisle: With regard to the F-22, the first strikes were in September 2014.

We have done upgrades as well which allows us to fire SDBs at a greater level of accuracy.

We are also using the sensor fusion on board the aircraft to pass information to the rest of the force, which is bringing their game up as well.

The F-22 functions in this sense as a battle manager because the pilot has the SA inside his cockpit to direct other aircraft on what they do and how they can do it more effectively.

We are better at this now than we were even a year ago.

You create a problem for an adversary when you have multiple places from which you can strike.

You have the SA and the information shared among all three platforms in the case of the trilateral exercise.

You couldn’t defend against all of them.

But how do you train pilots for multi-tasking missions?

This clearly is a work in progress?

What does being a Top Gun F-35 pilot mean and how do you train to the desired multi-tasking level of competence?

In the following piece by Todd Miller, he addresses the question of the making of a 21st century pilot.

The Making of the 21st Century Fighter Pilot

By Todd Miller

With the F-35A program generating an abundance of positive news, it is easy to overlook that the F-22A Raptor remains the USAF platform of choice for the Air Superiority role.

In a recent interview 1st Fighter Wing Commander, Colonel Pete Fesler paraphrased comments made by the Commander of Air Combat Command, General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle; “The F-35 is the best air to air (A2A) platform in the world, except for the F-22. The F-22 is the best air to ground (A2G) platform in the world, except for the F-35.” Fesler continued,

“So we have two aircraft, one designed primarily for A2G, one primarily for A2A, both with complimentary capabilities to assist each other in either role.

Together they create a team that is optimized to simultaneously go after air and surface threats.”

The  F-22 Raptor has a unique combination of stealth, speed, maneuverability, operational altitude and weapons load that make it the “bar” by which A2A fighters are measured. Seen in the context of the current and emerging threat environment, the capabilities the Raptor brings to the fight drive a paradigm shift in the role of the fighter pilot.

Operating the stealthy F-22 in highly contested space with anti access/area denial (A2/AD) systems AND adversaries with their own advanced stealthy aircraft provides extraordinary challenges.

These current and anticipated air and surface threats drive an aggressive training regime for Raptor pilots.

On a recent visit to Joint Base Langley-Eustis (JBLE) Lt. Colonel Charles “Stab” Hebert, Commander of the 71st FTS (Fighter Training Squadron) and first assignment Adversary Air (ADAIR) pilot call sign “Leeroy” provided insights into the selection and training of Raptor pilots.

The 71st FTS flies the Northrop T-38 Talon as ADAIR support for all F-22 Raptors based at JBLE (27th FS, 94th FS & the 192nd FW).

Raptor Pilot Qualities

During college Leeroy entered the Air Force through the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC), and subsequently took his Undergraduate Pilot Training (UPT) at Sheppard AFB. As a student graduating from the UPT, Leeroy was assigned to the 71st FTS “Ironmen” where he has honed his piloting skills flying against the Raptor.

After what will be two years of flying as a Raptor adversary (with at least 1 Raptor Kill – more on that later), Leeroy is now uniquely qualified to achieve his goal and become a Raptor pilot. In the short time since graduation Leeroy has become qualified as an instructor in the T-38 ADAIR program.

As Hebert explained, Leeroy is making a little history – being the first, first assignment pilot to become an ADAIR instructor. Leeroy applied himself and broke barriers by achieving something extraordinary in just over 18 months at his first assignment. This is precisely the type of high achievement individuals with excellent flying skills that the Air Force looks to fill Raptor seats.

Hebert speaks insightfully, he was one of those originally tasked to transition the T-38s from training support for the F-117 to the F-22.

Hebert is qualified in the T-38, F-15C, and F-22 – so he knows what’s involved in excelling as an air combat, adversary and F-22 pilot. With that wealth of experience Hebert notes that not every pilot has the aptitude or the skills to fly the F-22 Raptor.

As Hebert says, pilots are graded on many aspects throughout their undergraduate pilot training (UPT) including; instrument, formation, low level, aerobatics, pattern work, academics, physical condition, and professional conduct. By the end of training, it is clear which students are qualified for the F-22.

And as Hebert states emphatically, “it matters, because you have a very expensive single seat platform and one hour of training in the Raptor may involve multiple Raptors, a Tanker, AWACS, and multiple adversaries.

Leadership needs to ensure the student has the right aptitude, the ability to learn from the sortie without multiple do overs, and progress to the next step.”

Existing Air Force pilots that transfer into the Raptor program from another fighter platform must have also demonstrated exceptional piloting skills and aptitude.

Raptor capabilities include sensor fusion that provides the pilot with superior situational awareness vs. Gen 4 fighters.

Coming from the F-15C Eagle, Hebert says, “I used to look at Raptor pilots and think, those guys are so lucky, the jet does everything for you.

Then I flew the Raptor for myself, and yes the jet does a lot for you, but much more is expected of you!

There are fewer aircraft and the Raptor pilot is addressing a larger mission set.

The aircraft has the speed and sensor suite, it can do anything you need a fighter to do and more, however you have to manage your fuel and your weapons.

The role of a Raptor pilot is more like a mission commander (even as a wingman) as opposed to the Eagle.

One Raptor is expected to do the work of multiple Eagles.

It’s not easy to employ the Raptor well, because you have a lot to manage.”

Each step forward in technology drives increased platform capability.

The era of platforms dedicated to a specific role are winding down.

Platforms like the Raptor now include capabilities that may all be utilized on the same mission; A2A, A2G, electronic warfare/electronic attack (EW/EA), and Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR).

A familiar way to understand this is to consider the mobile phone from its inception to what we use today.

When first introduced it was “just” a mobile phone, then became a phone with added calculator, notepad, email, and now the mobile phone is a “smart phone” that includes cameras, office assistants and so much more.

The F-22 does more, and that “more” translates into a significant increase in the scope of the mission set.

The F-22 and F-35s advanced sensors ensure both play a critical part in driving the emerging C5ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Combat Systems, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) structure. The aircraft form critical nodes in the associated kill web of information driven assets.

They are not replacements for existing Gen 4 aircraft, but provide an entirely new capability, and as such new Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TPPs) must become second nature for the pilot.

While new mission sets are seldom discussed (due to the classified nature of the capabilities), even traditional mission sets have many variables.

The Raptor may be flown in a blended environment with both Gen 4 and coalition (international) jets, or fighting on its own.

In a blended group the Raptor often functions as a battlespace manager for the group providing a “god’s eye view” to all participants – even as it keeps the airspace clear of adversaries, and sends volumes of ISR data back to other platforms.

In some cases, the mission commander will utilize Raptor driven information and designate the missiles of other aircraft to down adversaries, ensuring the Raptor keeps maximum weapons load for use as a last resort (as we have seen in Red Flag exercises).

In another scenario the Raptor may be driven by a time sensitive window to get a bomber on target and aggressively strike deep into contested space with scores of hostile air and ground threats to evade or neutralize.

As Hebert summarized, “the Raptor pilot is called upon to manage each unique environment, and that challenges how you manage your weapons. Do you sling one missile or are you slinging two, ensuring the threat is killed?

“That affects what weapons you have available on board to support the mission on egress. So there is a lot to think about.”

It goes beyond multi-tasking, to multi-tasking in a fluid, dynamic environment with an un-compromised commitment to survival and achievement of mission objectives.

Each circumstance brings a new set of challenges to utilize the available sensor information and deploy the aircraft effectively. Hebert says “the pilot is constantly evaluating out how one change affects everything else and what decision has to be made now.”

Adversary Air

While of 1960s vintage, the sleek, black T-38s are effective adversaries for the Raptors, and train against them daily.

Not to be confused with dogfighting within visual range (WVR) (generally suicidal for a T-38 vs an F-22), the primary training involves taking on multiple bogeys beyond visual range (BVR) that attack in a wide variety of formations.

In the past F-22 pilots used to slip in and out of the T-38s to try their hand against their own aircraft, but that is generally not the case today. Each pilot is focused on their specific craft. Leeroy brings a fresh but disciplined approach to flying as an F-22 adversary.

As he explained, he flies the mission while maintaining a series of priorities revolving around the mission and safety; maintaining fuel; staying within the designated airspace; keeping a safe distance from other participants.

“The formation (to include my wingman and myself) must be executed correctly, the tactic we have been tasked to reflect must be executed correctly. Not merely flying a profile, ADAIR must replicate a tactic and in some cases an aircraft type. It is the responsibility of ADAIR to drive specific learning objectives for the Raptors.”

For the T-38 pilot, communication is typically verbal (from an AWACS or Ground Controller), and situational awareness is the 3D picture the pilot paints in their own mind. In this respect, there is no help from the aircraft! With aircraft often converging at well over 1000 mph – things are happening fast, leaving lots to think about and little time for decisions and actions.

Hebert comments, “I like Leeroy’s response because it illustrates the difference between what’s happening with the Raptor versus Leeroy. Leeroy is flying in a fast jet, he’s really got a lot of variables; he’s thinking about communication; he is literally building a picture in his mind so that he knows what he’s doing next, where his threats are or how he can affect a mission. That is hard. But his effectiveness is small compared to the Raptor.

“A Raptor pilot benefits from tremendous systems that give him a lot of situational awareness, they’re not having to do as much mentally, however they’re wildly outnumbered.

“There’s a lot more aircraft out there trying to kill those two or four jets and so they have to figure out how they’re going to complete their mission, preserve their fuel, preserve their weapons and realize it’s not just an air to air threat, they are also dealing with air to ground threats. The Raptor pilot must stay true to their own limitations associated with that mission set. Our training is very challenging on both sides.”

It is clear – Raptor pilots are pressed through a crucible.

As has been noted in the USAF Red Flag exercises and USAF Weapons School at Nellis AFB – the objective is to train pilots in environments designed to be equal too, or more difficult than what is expected in combat.

While virtual training is utilized, Hebert notes that there is nothing that can train like being in the air. The physical exertion, the actual reality of managing fuel, weapons, the mission set – all escalate dramatically in the air.

Fights On

The typical training sortie take one of three forms, involving 2 – 6 or more T-38s vs 2 – 4 F-22s;

Short Range, Low Awareness: This scenario typically involves two to four T-38s vs two F-22s with the focus on ACM (air combat maneuvering). The Talons approach the Raptors quickly from behind. The Raptors turn around with low awareness and attempt to quickly kill all threats. Just like an old western shootout, except the Raptor pilot has to contend with three or four gunslingers at once!

Offensive Counter Air (OCA) and Defensive Counter Air (DCA): In these sorties ADAIR flies as a hostile nation in a scenario that is drawn up by mission planners. ADAIR represents a specific type of aircraft and a particular threat country. A designated “territory” is defended, or attacked. Engagements that end in kills to ADAIR send the T-38s back to a specific location to regenerate and reenter the battle. Given the regeneration those 6 – 8 T-38s might represent a total of 20 – 30 bandits for the F-22s to address during the sortie.

Both OCA and DCA are “missionized scenarios” so the regeneration threat airfields are identified and coordinated with intelligence. The Raptors must typically honor a surface to air threat and they will be penalized if they violate. The surface threats are critical to reflect the A2/AD environment that the Raptor will be expected to fight and prevail in.

The problem sets created for Raptor pilots are difficult, and represent a significant step up in sophistication and difficulty from Gen 4 air to air training exercises (that have primarily focused on ACM or specific mission set served by a given platform).

Hebert addresses the question many are asking, “How is that that a 1960s aircraft challenges a Raptor? By volume, size, and speed. It’s the fact that Leeroy is well versed in Raptor tactics. We know how to work the Raptor to the best of our ability, add intelligence and the difficulties associated with their mission sets (such as their escorting someone you know they have to protect at all costs) -and it gets hard, quick.”

Pride must be taken in the execution of the mission, because it must get old always getting killed! Has Leeroy ever “killed a Raptor?”

A brief moment of hesitation indicates a reluctance to share, “Yes, I have – it happens from time to time.”

Now before readers and armchair fighter pilots lose their minds, there are a number of reasons why a 1960s T-38 may get a Raptor kill, and none of them include the Raptor being out flown by a T-38 in a WVR engagement.

As Hebert explains, it was likely a very hard kill.

While it could have been a mistake (an overlook) by a Raptor pilot, more likely the Raptor was being tasked to do something very aggressive. We may ask them to achieve the impossible.

We have to push them beyond their limits to effect valid training, to hammer home hard lessons. It is a natural, if not critical part of the training.

With Leeroy soon to be flying Raptors he reflects on the most impressive things he’s seen from both the perspective of the F-22 and the T-38.

“With the Raptor – you constantly die without ever seeing it – that’s very impressive” he both smiles and frowns. “On the other hand, if you do get close, right on the Raptors six and you think you are going to get a kill, you quickly learn that the maneuverability of the F-22 is incredible.”

The F-22 turns on a dime, and you are another F-22 statistic. And the most impressive thing about the T-38 Talon? Sounding much like I might expect a B-52 pilot would, Leeroy answers, “to fly a 1960s jet in 2016!”

The situation is ripe with paradox.

An 1960s jet flown by a young, very capable pilot is making an invaluable contribution to the creation of pilots for the most lethal air superiority platform of today and tomorrow.

What could be more exciting? I looked at Leeroy and he could not wipe the smile off his face, he’s enrolled in the Raptor-B-course this coming January.

Now that is exciting!

Article and photos by Todd Miller, Second Line of Defense.

All rights reserved; for use please contact Second Line of Defense.

The Second Line of Defense would like to thank Lt. Col Charles “Stab” Hebert, Commander of the 71st FTS “Ironmen”; “Leeroy,” T-38 Instructor and soon to be F-22 Raptor pilot; Jeffrey Hood, Media Operations Section Chief, JBLE; and TSgt Katie Ward of the 633 ABW PAO.

Editor’s Note: One impact of the F-35 is a dramatic increase in fifth generation pilots; there are few F-22 pilots and few F-22s; in fact, already Lockheed has or will seen have produced more F-35s than F-22s!

The F-35 and the Transformation of the Power Projection Forces

09/13/2016

The F-35 has been operational with the USMC for more than a year, and this summer with the USAF. The US Navy is getting ready for the introduction of the F-35 and already sees it as a key element of and trigger fro what Navy leadership calls the kill web. This means that the F-35 is see both as a new capability but part of a much broader transformation of the power projection force.

In this report, we look at perspectives of the US services and the allies on the impact of fifth generation enabled combat capabilities and ways to think about the patterns of transformation of the power projection forces.

Interviews have been conducted at the major bases and warfighting centers in the United States as well as interviews in the UK and Australia as well. There is a convergence of thinking about the broad strategic direction of the reshaping of power projection forces but a diversity of innovative approaches with regard to how best to achieve change.

21st century warfare concepts of operations, technology, tactics and training are in evolution and revolution. The F-35 is at the heart of this change for a very simple reason – it is a revolutionary platform, and when considered in terms of its fleet impact even more so. The F-35, Lightning II, will make combat aviation history with the first of kind sensor fusion cockpit. The F-35 is essentially an F/A/E-35 that makes it effective in AA, AG and EW combined missions. Allied and U.S. combat pilots will evolve and share new tactics and training, and over time this will drive changes that leaders must make for effective command and control to fight future battles.

An issue has been that the F-35 has been labeled a “fifth generation” aircraft, a sensible demarcation when the F-22 was being introduced. But the evolution of the combat systems on the aircraft, the role of the fusion engine, and the impact of a fleet of integrated F-35s operating as a foundational element will make the current term “5th Gen” obsolete. The F-35 is the first of a new generation of design features and airborne capabilities that will change everything. It is a first generation information and decision making superiority “flying combat system.”

The global fleet of F-35s will be the first generation for building a foundation for a fundamental change in the way air power operates in overall combat concepts of operations. It is not in and of itself a single aircraft platform; it is about what an integrated fleet of F-35s can deliver to TRANSFORM everything.  The decade ahead will be very innovative. Combat warriors, at all ranks, can leverage what they learn and then apply those lessons to reshaping the force over and over.

The impact of an integrated fleet of F-35s with fused internal pilot combat data and also distributed information out, will allow the US and its allies to rethink how to do 21st century air-enabled operations. Each F-35 will be able to network and direct engagements in 360-degrees of 3-dimensional space by offloading tracks to other air/land/sea platforms including UAVs and robots.

The current head of the ACC when he was PACAF looked forward to the time when allies and the US forces had substantial numbers of F-35s flying in the Pacific area of operations and highlighted how dramatic he saw the coming changes to be.

“General Carlisle was asked what would be the impact of a fleet of F-35s (allied and US) upon a Commander of PACAF a decade out. It will be significant.  Instead of thinking of an AOC, I can begin to think of an American and allied CAOC (Combined Air Operations Center).  By sharing a common operating picture, we can become more effective tactically and strategically throughout the area of operations.”

https://sldinfo.com/the-pacaf-commander-and-reworking-pacific-defense-the-aor-will-become-a-caoc/

The most neglected aspect of the roll out of the F-35 is its global nature. It is not just about the three US services, it is about partners and allies concurrently rolling out their F-35s and sorting out how their new air systems transform their forces. The F-35 is not an airplane; it is a global air combat system.

Although the F-35 is a U.S. aircraft, it has significant foreign content provided by an integrated global network of suppliers. With the introduction of F-35s globally, comes the nascent global sustainment enterprise. The forces are working out ways to leverage the commonality in the plane and the support structure to sustain those planes in combat.

It is a nascent effort, but is already laying down building blocks such as sustainment enterprise in Europe and Asia to support the partners, and the operation of U.S. forces from regional support centers, such as being built by the Italians, the Dutch or the Australians. The roll out of the aircraft is built upon a common logistics enterprise shaping a global sustainment effort similar to that of the successful the C-17 global enterprise.

Global defense industry, not just the U.S. defense industry, is significant to building AND sustaining the F-35. About 30% of the F-35 fleet will be built with foreign content, and the maintainability will rest on best practices from global suppliers. The F-35 logistics enterprise will not simply be forced to rely on sole source suppliers for any number of key parts produced globally. And with the system to identify parts, the performance of those parts will be put to the test and the better performing parts suppliers determined by performance in combat and in operations, not simply determined in a procurement bureaucracy.

Besides the US, the F-35’s nine partner countries are Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and Turkey. And they’re a number of other countries buying the aircraft via a more traditional FMS acquisition route, including; Japan, South Korea, Israel and possibly Singapore. Each of these countries is buying the F-35 as part of their overall efforts to shape 21st century defense forces.

The global nature of the fleet – is a trigger for change and key allies are looking at F-35 enabled defense transformation. The coming of the F-35 triggers key aspects of shaping 21st century concepts of operations, we will focus on an examples of how concepts of operations can be reshaped, namely the evolution of “tron warfare” under the impact of the F-35 global fleet.

Leveraging the F-35 triggered transformation, rather than pursuing a stove-piped platform modernization and upgrade strategy, will be the essential catalysis to shape new platform acquisitions. The decade ahead will be one of significant innovation which will in turn build a technology, training and tactics foundation for what new systems will be important to develop in the decade after next.

 

The Way Ahead for the RAAF in the Joint Forces Space and the Coming of the F-35: The Perspective of Air Commodore Kitcher

09/12/2016

2016-09-04 By Robbin Laird

Prior to the Williams Foundation seminar on air-sea integration, I had a chance to sit down with Air Commodore Kitcher and to discuss the way ahead for the RAAF in the joint combat space.

He is the Director General of Capability Planning in the RAAF.

Air Commodore Kitcher provided an understanding of how the RAAF was integrating its new platforms into the force, and how opening the aperture from the outset on joint capability was affecting that roll out as well.

Question: It is often noted in the USAF that 80% of the platforms which will make up the 2025 force are already here.

What is the RAAF’s perspective?

Air Commodore Kitcher: “It is somewhat different from the USAF.  And our challenge is also somewhat different. By 2025  our oldest platform will be a C130J, which remains the most modern C130 available.

“In 2025, we’re not going to be operating a platform in the air combat space that’s 20 years old. In Australia, we don’t have to integrate an F35 with an F16, or an F35 with the classic Hornet.

“We will be operating some of the latest  and most capable platforms across the air lift, control  of the air, strike and ISR roles and our challenge is to get best combat value out of an integrated Australian and coalition force using these cutting edge capabilities.

P-8 crew flying the Wedgetail simulator in Australia for refueling operations.
P-8 crew flying the Wedgetail simulator in Australia for refueling operations.

“We’ll retire classic Hornet, and introduce the F35-A which is much more than a replacement for the Classic. Our other air combat asset are our Super Hornets, which are only 5 years old, and both will be supported (amongst many other things) by Growlers, which will arrive in Australia next year.

“If we look at the maritime space, P3s are retiring, P8s and Triton are being introduced. Our first P8 turns up in November this year. If we look in the airlift space, C130Js will be our oldest platform, but they remain contemporary.

KC-30A MRTT and E-7A Wedgetail conduct Air to Air refuelling testing in the airspace near RAAF Williamtown. *** Local Caption *** Air-to-air refuelling trials between KC-30A Multi-Role Tanker Transport and E-7A Wedgetail From 1-13 June 2015, air-to-air refuelling (AAR) trials were conducted between a RAAF KC-30A Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) and an E-7A Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft for the first time. The KC-30A utilised its 17-metre-long Aerial Refuelling Boom System, which is capable of offloading fuel at up to 4500 litres per minute. During the trials, a total of seven sorties were flown by each aircraft, during which they conducted 118 'dry' contacts with the KC-30A's refuelling boom, and six 'wet' contacts, with a 20 tonnes of fuel being transferred. The trials were conducted under the direction of the Aircraft Research and Development Unit (ARDU), and will allow a significant increase in mission range and endurance for the Wedgetail.
KC-30A MRTT and E-7A Wedgetail conduct Air to Air refuelling testing in the airspace near RAAF Williamtown. June 2015. Credit: Australian MoD

“The KC-30 Multi Role Tanker Transport is 4 or 5 years old with both the hose and drogue and boom air to air refueling capabilities being fully realised and  another 2 effectively new KC-30 aircraft  will arrive before the end of 2019. We also  picked up C-17 aircraft #7 and 8 last year. C-27J is being introduced right now and we expect it to reach IOC before the end of this year.

“In the surveillance  and control area , the E-7 Wedgetail  AEWAC airframe might be 10 or 15 years old. However, the Wedgetail capability is equal to or better than any similar capability in the world.

“You’d have to say Wedgetail is a cutting edge AEWAC capability. There would be some capabilities that Wedgetail has that the new USAF Block 40/45 E-3G AWACS doesn’t have, and vice versa, of course.”

Question: So your challenge is ensuring that your force which is a young force in terms of new capabilities can work effectively together; and for this, you are also working with core allies such as the US, but need to shape a core Australian way ahead.

 How would you describe the challenge?

Air Commodore Kitcher: “How do I make my US Air Force ‘like’ F35A work closely with my US Navy ‘like’ Growler and Super Hornet to achieve a mission?

“Similarly, how do I ensure  these aircraft, plus the Australian bespoke Wedgetail can work effectrvely with the RAN LHD and  Air Warfare Destroyer to achieve a Maritime support or strike mission?

“It’s a good problem to have to ensure that we get the maximum collective capability out of our individual platforms in the Australian context, which means we’ve got to make them work with each other.

“Larger forces, like the US, may not have that same requirement, because they’ve got other assets that can do various specialized missions.

“And we face a major challenge to ensure that our new air platforms work in an integrated manner with evolving Navy and Army capabilities.

“We must  shape solutions which support our Australian Concept of Operations.

The Joint Standing Committee visit RAAF Base Amberley; (from the left) Sue Joyce, Nathan Fewkes, Group Captain Carl Newman, Mrs Jane Prentice MP, Dr Dennis Jensen MP, Senator David Fawcett, Air Commodore Michael Kitcher, Mr Alan Griffin MP, Mr Jerome Brown, Senator Linda Reynolds, Wing Commander Jo Elkington, Mr Josh Leslie, Warrant Officer Tony Hall, Flight Lieutenant Jack Appleton, Sergeant Robert Lee and Flight Lieutenant Melissa Picton. *** Local Caption *** On 19 June 2015, the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade conducted a base visit to RAAF Base Amberley.Travelling to Amberley on an Air Force C-130J Hercules aircraft they witnessed the dispatching of stores from the rear of the aircraft while in flight. The base visit included briefings by key Air Force and Army units, including a lunch with Gap Year participants. The Joint Standing Committee considers, and reports on, matters that relate to foreign affairs, defence, trade and human rights. The Committee may also inquire into matters raised in annual reports of relevant Commonwealth Government departments and authorities or in reports of the Commonwealth Auditor-General.
The Joint Standing Committee visit RAAF Base Amberley; (from the left) Sue Joyce, Nathan Fewkes, Group Captain Carl Newman, Mrs Jane Prentice MP, Dr Dennis Jensen MP, Senator David Fawcett, Air Commodore Michael Kitcher, Mr Alan Griffin MP, Mr Jerome Brown, Senator Linda Reynolds, Wing Commander Jo Elkington, Mr Josh Leslie, Warrant Officer Tony Hall, Flight Lieutenant Jack Appleton, Sergeant Robert Lee and Flight Lieutenant Melissa Picton.

“Our force also obviously needs to be “integratable” and/or interoperable with the US and other allies, but we won’t get there fully by simply buying US C2 and ISR systems.

“Not only do we need to make a particular platform or system work for Australia within our ADF capability context, but we need to ensure that it’s  truly interoperable in a coalition as well.

“This is a real challenge, because there are security issues, restictions and requirements that exist that musr be overcome to realize true high-level interoperability.

“However, solving these problems is far better than trying to keep something that’s 30-year-old flying and make it work with the new equipment coming on line.

“To solve these challenges, we are focused on prioritising and integrating only the things that you ‘should’ to make a more lethal and effective force.

“There is no need for all our capabilities to be fully connected to each other, there are levels of connectivity that will suffice. especially initially We must prioritise and identify what we ‘should’ do, and to what level, vice embark on a program of doing what we ‘can’ do.

“A component of the RAAF Project Jericho involves this kind of thinking and is looking at our Air, Maritime and land capabilities, determining the art of the possible with respect to connectivity, and then suggesting levels and priorities that should be pursued.

“This also includes components in the virtual and constructive areas such that we can also train more effectively in the joint arena.

“Improving our training capacity by complementing live training with virtual and constructive is vital, especially where availability of the scarce live resources necessary to generate a complex training scenario are limited, and security restrictions could inhibit operating live at appropriate levels.”

Question: You have done a lot of worked to shape a fifth-generation enabled force, prior to the F-35 showing up.

 How will the F-35 fit into that evolving effort?

Air Commodore Kitcher: “The F35 introduction’s is catalyst for significant change.

“Although the jets don’t arrive in Australia until the end of 2018, and IOC is not until the end of 2020, believe me, we are right in the middle of introducing the F-35A into service.

“In addition to personnel we have embedded in the overall F-35 program in the US, we have two RAAF aircraft and four instructors at Luke AFB. Our first cadre of dedicated F-35 maintainers and engineers departs for the US in Jan 17, and will be gaining the necessary experience so we can operate the F-35 in Australia from the end of 2018.

F-35 Aircraft AF-4 Australian KC-30 Tanker Test. First fuel transfer. *** Local Caption *** The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) completed the first fuel transfer with the air refuelling boom from a RAAF KC-30A Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) to a US Air Force (USAF) F-35A Joint Strike Fighter at Edwards Air Force Base in California. A total of 59 contacts were conducted of which five contacts transferred 43,200 pounds of fuel during the four hour sortie.
F-35 Aircraft AF-4 Australian KC-30 Tanker Test. First fuel transfer.

“Operating the F-35 will be one thing, but we also need to be able to sustain it, and the methods of sustaining the F-35 are also different to older platforms.

“We have been planning for a while now, and these plans will continue to evolve, but I’m not sure our system fully understands that this significant transition is well and truly underway.

“You can keep flying legacy aircraft forever if you want to spend enough money on them, but they all reach a point where they will become capability irrelevant.

“Our Classsic Hornets are doing a great job in the Middle East right now, and due to the raft of Hornet upgrades we have completed, remain amongst the most capable Classic  Hornets anywhere.

“However, they will reach a point in the near future, especially in the higher end fight, where their utility  will be significantly diminished.

“The F-35 brings 5th generation qualities which will allow for a significant expansion across a raft of ADF capabilities. Air Maritime, Land and most importantly joint.

Nextgen Cyber Innovation and Technology Centre (NCITC) Operations Manager, Mr Merv Wills (right), talks to Program Manager - Joint Strike Fighter, Air Vice-Marshal Chris Deeble, AM, CSC (centre) and Director General Capability Planning, Air Commodore Mike Kitcher, OAM (left) about the NCITC at Lockheed Martin. *** Local Caption *** On the 2nd of December 2014 Lockheed Martin Australia hosted an event to launch the first F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) simulation environment. Through ALIS, Lockheed Martin provides performance based logistics for the entire global fleet of F-35 aircraft. ALIS integrates a range of capabilities which include operations, maintenance, supply chain, customer support, technical data and training. The ALIS simulation environment will support integration activities and testing within the Defence environment prior to the first F-35 JSF arriving into Australia in 2018.
Nextgen Cyber Innovation and Technology Centre (NCITC) Operations Manager, Mr Merv Wills (right), talks to Program Manager – Joint Strike Fighter, Air Vice-Marshal Chris Deeble, AM, CSC (centre) and Director General Capability Planning, Air Commodore Mike Kitcher, OAM (left) about the NCITC at Lockheed Martin.

“We’ve chosen, and we have structured it such that the Classic Hornet will run out of effective hours and fatigue life at the point not too far after when the F35 is being introduced. There is  contingency of course but not a lot.  We don’t have the luxury simply to reflect abstractly on this problem anymore, we’re in the middle of solving it.

“That gives us a very aggressive F35 introduction schedule.

“For example, we’re planning to change out a classic Hornet to F35 squadron over 12 months. A squadron will stop flying the classic Hornet at the end of December one year, and by the end of December next year they are fully up and running and operational on the F-35. That is a very tight schedule. We’ve got a plan to execute but as you would expect, it’s not without risk.

“However, being a little bit smaller than what other forces might be, we tend to also be more agile.

“And that agility will see us deal with any risks that might materialize, or the other inevitable pop up issues.

“Due to this aggressive schedule, our ability right now to deal with many other things  triggered by the F-35 is somewhat limited, we are rightly focused on introduction.

“Fortunately, most of these associated issues, such as the Mission Data Environment, have already been the subject of extensive work. We have been positioning our joint force to both provide the necessary level and type of data to maximize new capabilities such as Growler, Triton and F-35A, and process the vast amounts of data these capabilities will collect.

“There are definitely remaining challenges in this space, we’ve observed them here in Australia and also with our key coalition partners, but there is good work underway in parallel with the platform introductions.

“I’m sure after we introduce the F-35 aircraft we’ll still have a lot of work to do to get us to the point where we maximize the F35 capability across the Australian defense force, and interoperability with the other F-35 forces, but this is natural and will be dealt with in due course.

“There is certainly a lot happening at once.”

Question: But clearly, you are bringing in the F-35 with the mindset that it is not simply replacing the Hornet?

Air Commodore Kitcher: “I absolutely agree we are not just replacing the classic Hornet with another fighter.

“And we are looking from the ground up at complementary F-35 capabilities to maximize the F-35 effect across the joint space, such as the missiles we wish to see onboard our F-35.

“For example, we are looking at the Kongsberg JSM, we think that presents a logical option to consider far more seriously for our JSF maritime strike capability, and we’re looking at that right now, as was  announced at the 2015 Avalon Air Show.

Australian F-35 at Luke AFB. Credit: Luke AFB
Australian F-35 at Luke AFB. Credit: Luke AFB

“Our requirement for a quality maritime strike missile internally carried on the F35 might also be ahead timewise of what the US and other coalition partners might  have. It might also be ahead of what the US has programmed. We’re certainly working on the F-35 MARSTK capability and are also developing  options, with Australian Industry,  that might lead to a dual mode seeker in the JSM.

“But it is clear that just like in the case of Wedgetail and KC-30A, we want to put the F-35 into the hands of the warfighters as rapidly as possible.

“They will make it work.

“I know that despite all our best efforts and intent, we won’t be able to plan the F-35 introduction perfectly from Canberra. We are doing our best job to make sure we deliver the capability to the men and women in the field, as efficiently and positively as possible.

“When we throw the F-35 at them, they’re going to do all sorts of stuff with it that we will not have even thought of.

“I look forward to letting our smart young man and women, who have grown up in a different environment to those of us here in Canberra, get their hands on the F-35 and do some amazing things with it. I’m also quite looking forward to getting back out there myself, and see this first hand.

“Our job is to set up the program and set in motion the framework for that kind of tactical innovation to happen, to position them  for success.

“We should not get in their way with excessive top down guidance and legacy thinking.”

 

The Network as a Weapon System: The Perspective of Rear Admiral Mayer, Commander Australian Fleet

09/10/2016

2016-09-10 By Robbin Laird

During the Williams Foundation seminar on evolving approaches to air-sea integration, Rear Admiral Mayer, the Commander of the Australian Fleet, focused on the concrete and specific challenges facing the evolution of the Royal Australian Navy as a key element of the joint force.

He argued that the Army, Navy and Air forces were evolving in the context of tapping shared networks to empower their platforms to form an extended battlespace.

But the challenge, he observed, was to work through how to most effectively shape, coordinate and execute effects from the networked force while retaining decision authorities at the lowest practical level to achieve speed of decision.

Rear Admiral Stuart Mayer, Commander Fleet Australia, speaking at the Williams Seminar on Air-Sea Integration, August 10, 2016, Canberra, Australia.
Rear Admiral Stuart Mayer, Commander Fleet Australia, speaking at the Williams Seminar on Air-Sea Integration, August 10, 2016, Canberra, Australia.

He highlighted that the Navy was returning to a task force concept but one, which was 21st century in character, whereby Navy was tapping into ground and air assets as “part” of the task force, rather than simply focusing on Navy operated assets.

This evolution of the task force effect and the networked approach, clearly in the mode of what the US Navy is referring to as the “kill web,” will require the evolution of capabilities, both in terms of connectivity, and training.

During the seminar he characterized the network as a weapon system with “no single master” and that one of the ADFs challenges was to shape the evolving network in order to effectively operate in a distributed multi domain task force.

“Each service is designing its platforms and enabling their potential through the elements of a common network.

“There is increased overlap thereby for the air and sea forces, at the very least through the access and synergy provided in the network.

“A fundamental question presents itself; how should we best develop, certify and deploy our joint network that must be cross domain in nature?”

He argued that the Australian Defence Force was on a good track but needed to enhance its capability to work in a joint domain that recognized tactical effects were generated by Services, but operational outcomes were inherently Joint.

In effect, the Services provided the muscle behind the Joint intent.

If the ADF were to achieve its potential it would need to design forces from the ground up that were interconnected to a single reference standard, rather than simply connecting assets after the fact.

But to do so required an open architecture approach to building a joint network that recognized the different needs of the participants.

The role of the network as a weapon system required that it had to be designed, deployed and certified like any other weapon system.

I had a chance to sit down with Rear Admiral Mayer and discuss further some of his thinking about the way ahead.

“We are joint by necessity.

“Unlike the US Navy, we do not have our own air force or our own army. Joint is not a theological choice, it’s an operational necessity.”

It was clear both from his presentation and our discussion during the interview that Rear Admiral Mayer was focused on how the build out of the Navy in the period ahead would be highly correlated with the evolution of the joint network.

“The network is a weapons system.

“Lethality and survivability have to be realized through a networked effect.”

Rear Admiral Manazir at the seminar focused on the kill web as a weapon system; it was very clear that Rear Admiral Mayer had in mind a similar thought when he discussed the network as a weapon system.

A key element of change for the Australian Navy was evolving a 21st century concept of task force operations.

He noted that the development of the new amphibious ships had come within a decade of work on shaping an amphibious warfare system.

The importance of the LHDs was not just the capability they offered, but the elevation in thinking they drove in Navy over the decade, thinking that moved operational concepts from the platform to the Task Group and affected all of Navy’s force elements.

He emphasized throughout the interview that not enough work has yet been done to prioritize the evolving C2 and network systems empowering the platforms in the force, including but not limited to the amphibious force.

He sees this area of development as a crucial one in creating a more interactive joint force able to deliver lethal effect.

“The potential of each of the individual platforms in a network is such that we’ve actually got to preset the limits of the fight before we get to it.

“The decisions on what we’ll do, how much we’ll share, and what sovereign rights we will retain have to be preset into each one of the combat systems before you switch it on and join a network.

“There is no point designing a combat system capable of defeating supersonic threats and throttling it with a slow network or cumbersome C2 decision architecture.

“Achieving an effective network topology is so much more complex in a coalition context in which the potential for divergence is higher.

“The paradox is that a coalition network is much more likely a requirement than a national network, and yet what investment we do make is based on national systems first.

“If we don’t achieve the open architecture design that enables the synergy of a networked coalition force, then the effectiveness of the coalition itself will be put at risk.

“The moment we insert excess command and hierarchical decision authority into the loop we will slow down the lethality of the platforms in the network.

“Before we even get in the battlespace we have to agree the decision rights and pre set these decisions into the combat system and network design; the fight for a lethal effect starts at the policy level before we even engage in combat operations.

“The network and C2 rather than the platforms can become the critical vulnerability.”

“This is why the decision making process needs to be designed as much as the network or the platforms.

“If the C2 matrix slows the network, it will dumb down the platform and the capability of the system to deliver a full effect.”

“The nature of the force we are shaping is analogous to a biological system in which the elements flourish based on their natural relationship within the environment.

“We have an opportunity to shape both the platforms and the network, but we will only achieve the flourishing eco system we seek if each harmonise with the other, and the overall effectiveness is considered on the health of the ecosystem overall.

“For example, an ASW network will leverage the potential of the individual constituent platforms and that in turn will determine the lethality of the system.

“A discordant network connection will, at least, limit the overall Force level effect of the network and at worst break the network down to discordant elements.”

Clearly, a key part of the evolution is about shaping a weapons revolution whereby weapons can operate throughout the battlespace hosted by platforms that are empowered by networks tailored to the battlespace.

And that revolution will have its proper impact only if the network and C2 dynamics discussed by Rear Admiral Mayer unfold in the national and coalition forces.

“The limiting factor now is not our platforms; it’s the networks and C2 that hold the potential of those platforms down.

“When the individual platforms actually go into a fight they’re part of an interdependent system, the thing that will dumb down the system will be a network that is not tailored to leverage the potential of the elements, or a network that holds decision authority at a level that is a constraint on timely decision making.

“The network will determine the lethality of our combined system.”

The slideshow above shows Rear Admiral Mayer performing some of his various duties and the photos are credited to the Australian Ministry of Defence.

Captain Nick Walker Provides An Update on the Queen Elizabeth Class Carrier at the Williams Foundation Air-Sea Seminar

09/09/2016

2016-09-06 By Robbin Laird

Recently, the Williams Foundation held their latest seminar on 5th generation enabled combat. This one focused on new approaches to air-sea integration, and featured two key foreign military perspectives.

https://sldinfo.com/the-williams-foundation-seminar-on-air-sea-integration-shaping-sea-air-land-forces-for-deterrence-in-depth/

The first was provided by Rear Admiral Manazir, who currently serves as the deputy chief of naval operations for warfare systems (OPNAV N9) on the staff of the chief of naval operations. In this capacity, he is responsible for the integration of manpower, training, sustainment, modernization and procurement of the Navy’s warfare systems.

His presentation focused on the strategic context for the U.S. and allied maritime forces and shaping a convergent way ahead. How can the allies shape convergent capabilities to ensure that the global commons remain open, and not controlled by powers seeking to enforce their will against the allied powers?

Rear Admiral Manazir highlighted the kill web approach as a way to shape more effective integration of force and convergence of efforts.

The kill chain is a linear concept, which is about connecting assets to deliver fire power; the kill web is about distributed operations and the ability of force packages or task forces to deliver force dominance in an area of interest.

It is about building in integration from the ground up so that forces can work seamlessly together through multiple networks, rather than relying on a single point of failure large network.

https://sldinfo.com/rear-admiral-manazir-in-australia-allied-convergence-on-the-kill-web/

The second major presentation by a foreign military leader was by Captain Nick Walker of the Royal Navy, who is on the Naval Staff. Earlier, we interviewed Captain Walker as part of a RN and RAF team discussing the carrier and strike aviation during an interview conducted at Whitehall in the first quarter of 2014.

He was then Commander Nick Walker and serving as the Chief of Staff Carrier Strike in the Carrier Strike and Aviation Division within Navy Command Headquarters in Portsmouth.

https://sldinfo.com/the-new-uk-aircraft-carrier-reshaping-the-royal-navy-and-the-royal-air-force/

Captain Nick Walker, Royal Navy, presenting at the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Sea Integration, Canberra, August 10, 2016
Captain Nick Walker, Royal Navy, presenting at the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Sea Integration, Canberra, August 10, 2016

During that interview, Captain Walker underscored a key point about the new capability for the national decision makers:

Question: How does this evolving capability affect a possible rethink about the way ahead for the forces?

Walker: This evolving capability will give the decision maker a lot of flexible tools to respond or prepare for crises.

The Maritime Task Force can be well integrated with land based air but does not need a lot of forward ground presence to generate combat effects.

This can give decision makers significant flexibility with regard to a crisis or to have the ability to move to crises rather than having to generate force build up in a particular place in order to intervene.

Captain Walker certainly picked up on that theme and wove the carrier discussion within a broader emphasis on how it both triggered and reflected the transformation process for the UK power projection forces.

He underscored that both the F-35 and the carrier are being brought into service together, and together they are key definers of the new power projection approach for an information age.

The carrier is being introduced from the ground up as a joint asset; not simply a maritime asset.

“The carrier strike journey is driving significant cultural change in the forces as well.”

He started by focusing on the core point that the carrier is coming into service as part of the overall transformation of UK power projection capabilities. Indeed, the CEPP or Carrier Enabled Power Projection statement of intent highlights the way ahead:

“An integrated and sustainable joint capability, interoperable with NATO, that enables the projection of UK Carrier Strike and Littoral Manoeuvre power as well as delivering humanitarian assistance and defence diplomacy, enabling joint effect across the maritime, land and air environments at a time and place of political choosing.”

He noted that the role of Special Forces has been highlighted since this original statement and will be folded into the revised statement of intent with regard to the role of the carrier within the UK forces.

CEPP has been maintained within the Ministry of Defence. This is in distinction to most other capabilities, which have been given to the front line commands. This allows joint forces command and the services to focus on CEPP as a joint capability.

The deck of the Queen Elizabeth carrier is 85% of the size (i.e. area) of a Nimitz class carrier; which can carry up to 36 F-35Bs along with a Merlin Crowsnests and a Merlin Mk2 ASW helo. Alternatively, the ship can be used in the projection of land forces from the sea in terms of Marines and helo insertion capabilities as well.

But it is the carrier strike focus which is definitional for the new carrier.

The ship has been designed from the ground up to support F-35B, in terms of weapons, C2, and ISR integration.

“We have also built from the ground up interoperability, and have worked closely with the USN and USMC with regard to this capability. And we are working on a broader approach to NATO interoperability as well.”

He provided an overview of the timing of the build out of the ship and the process of marrying it with the movement of the UK F-35Bs being prepared and trained in the United States to its permanent location in the UK at RAF Marham.

The initial carrier IOC is projected to be December 2020 with the fully integrated F-35 and carrier having full operational capability by 2025.

Much like the leadership of the Royal Australian Navy focused on in their presentations at the seminar, Walker emphasized new approaches to task forces as key part of their transformation approach.

Clearly, the UK is looking at the evolving impact of introducing carrier strike upon the overall change in the RAF and Royal Navy as well. And a key aspect of this transformation is working the evolving integration of fifth gen upon legacy capabilities.

Captain Walker highlighted the shift from a legacy mindset, which focused on thinking of maritime versus air environments to an integrated information dominance environment.

“A key cultural change is that we are looking at air and maritime as an integrated domain; and we are looking at the interaction among the environmental seams of our forces driven by a kill web approach and capability.”

A clear challenge is reworking C2.

“We need to shape a more mission order vice a directive Air Tasking Order approach to the use of an integrated air-maritime force.”

Future UK Requirements

Putting the new carriers in play completely integrated with the F-35 will provide the foundation for shaping the way ahead for the UK power projection forces.

Put bluntly, shaping the way ahead will be defined by the operational experiences entailed in operating and deploying the new carrier strike force and leveraging that capability will be crucial in thinking through future procurement decisions as well.

“We are focused on being more platform agnostic; and ironically, the F-35 can be looked at as a new platform an keep in the old platform-centric approach but we are looking at it as lever of change for next generation thinking and capabilities.

“We are taking the kill web concept very seriously, and examining how best to shape the desired outcome from nodes in the operational force, rather than focusing on specialized platforms.

“How do we generate operational tasks to be delivered from the integrated force?”

“How do we bring the Typhoon which is a key air asset into the kill web?

“Rapid reprogramming of platforms is a crucial way ahead for sure.

“The ability to exploit the intrinsic ISR capability of the force, rather than simply relying on specialized ISR platforms is a key way ahead as well.

“The ability to deliver effect throughout the force with data-link capabilities such as in the future the wingman of an F-35 could well be the Type 45 destroyer”

In short, Captain Walker saw significant commonality in terms of the Australian rethink about the way ahead for their navy and how the UK was thinking about the transformation of its power projection capabilities.

Recommendations for the Way Ahead To Craft a 21st Century Integrated Force

2016-09-09 By Robbin Laird

The Williams Foundation seminar on air-sea integration provided an opportunity for both uniformed officers as well as industrial participants to provide some practical suggestions and recommendations with regard to the way ahead to craft a more integrated combat force

In this piece, I will look at the comments made by the final panel, which featured key officers from the Royal Australian Navy, the Royal Australian Air Force and the United States Navy as well as the industry presentations in the seminar.

Perspectives of the Panel at the Closing Session of the Williams Foundation Seminar

Air Marshall (Retired) Geoff Brown was the moderator for the final session of the air-sea seminar.

He oversaw a panel, which then engaged with the audience and discussed a number of practical challenges, which needed to be addressed to effectively shape an integrated force capable of prevailing in the extended battlespace of the period ahead.

The panel consisted of Rear Admiral Manazir, Rear Admiral Stu Mayer, Air Vice Marshal Warren McDonald, and Rear Admiral (Retired) James Rapp.

The challenge of shaping an integrated force is enhanced in part by an acquisition process, which buys platforms and not capabilities. And acquisition processes which are long and drawn out.

The focus of the panelists was on leveraging industry to shape fixes to gaps which then allowed broader force structure change, upon non-capital investments which drew upon needed cultural changes which the military leadership could identify and put investments against, and leveraging new opportunities posed by the introduction of new platforms, to shape new joint opportunities.

Air Vice Marshal Warren McDonald participating in the panel at the Williams Foundation seminar on air-sea integration, August 10, 2016.
Air Vice Marshal Warren McDonald participating in the panel at the Williams Foundation seminar on air-sea integration, August 10, 2016.

Rear Admiral Mayer underscored the need to focus on non-capital investments as a way ahead.

“We are focused on platform purchases to solve problems; but many of those problems can be solved with better and more effective ways to work together. And we need to identify them, train to them and operate with them to make a difference in the joint force.”

Air Vice Marshall McDonald highlighted the opportunity to leverage the new capabilities provided by Wedgetail and P-8 to shape a new approach to work with navy.

He also highlighted the opportunity inherent in integrated and air and missile defense.

“I do not meet with industry in this area without an Army officer present, because we are going to work the problem together.”

He added the sage comment that we need to focus on the practical opportunities and leverage points rather than trying to get a full-blown integrated force solution at once.

“We need to build from to in order to shape an effective way ahead.”

Another key theme was working the training area more effectively.

Here suggestions ranged from shaping more targeted training, which focused on key tactical innovations to the use of LVC to train the command elements in ways to actually leverage a joint force in a high-end fight.

And LVC was seen as key to working the training towards the high-end fight, and training warriors in how to do cooperative engagement, to get the kind of sensor to weapons hand offs which the new technologies was generating for the combat force.

A key issue is that of information sharing among national or coalition forces.

Here Air Marshal (Retired) Geoff Brown asked Rear Admiral Manazir if we were making progress in this area.

Rear Admiral Manazir highlighted that in the evolving machine-to-machine relationships, technology was providing a way ahead. For example, targets could be identified and shared without disclosing the source of that information or the classification level.

The practical problem is to move classified data around the battlespace to empower the war fighters without compromising classification methods.

According to Rear Admiral Manazir:

“Machines talking at multi-level and multi-channel encrypted security levels can exchange data without compromising the sources and methods whereby the data has been generated.

“Thereby an F-35 with US markings and an F-35 with Australian markings can share data effectively in the combat space.”

In effect, the broad problem is one of parsing information and solving the problem posed by Air Vice Marshal Gavin Turnbull at the last Williams Foundation Seminar:

“How do we get the right information to the right people at the right time?”

https://sldinfo.com/building-from-airpower-integration-in-the-middle-east-to-shape-a-more-integrated-and-capable-australian-defence-force-the-perspective-of-air-commander-australia/

The Perspective of John Conway, Raytheon Australia: Reshaping the Industrial-Government Working Relationship to Support 21st Century Force Integration

John Conway focused on what he sees as a key role for industry in Australia, namely working with the Commonwealth to ensure that the ADF has sovereign control over its combat technologies.

“Integration should be viewed from the outset as an essential force multiplier in the air-sea domain, with the Australian defence industry playing a fundamental role in supporting the design, building and sustainment of a potent and agile joint force capability.”

Clearly, the latest Defence White Paper and associated documents called for a new working relationship with industry and throughout his remarks Conway underscored the importance of reworking the relationship to achieve greater force integration and cohesion.

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John Conway addressing the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Sea Integration, August 10, 2016.

“With Australian industry now formally acknowledged as a fundamental input to capability, this places a significant responsibility upon us to synchronise with Commonwealth intent, contribute to the development of effective and efficient time-sensitive solutions, and act as a cooperative and value-adding partner within the emerging framework of the first principles review.”

He highlighted that the addition of the new platforms provides key opportunities for working the partnership towards greater force integration.

“The possibility of adding complementary networked sensors, targeting systems, kinetic and non-kinetic weapons to as many of these new platforms as possible adds significant density and resilience to the ‘kill web’ described earlier by Admiral Manazir.

With a strong Australian industrial base, enabled by efficient international supply chains, we are able to integrated these new systems swiftly into our environment, as well as keeping their important training systems in lock step.”

WF_AIRSEA_160810_Conway

The Perspective of Patrick Winter, BAE Systems, Australia: Reworking Systems Integration to Shape an Integrated Force

Winter focused on ways to enhance the integration of forces, with among other approaches shaping a more open systems architecture approach.

“From an industry perspective, open systems architectures, support to collective air and sea training, and enterprise level C4ISR capabilities are the key areas where we can really make a significant contribution to air and sea integration and interoperability.”

He underscored that it was important for platform builders to buy into the new approach so that “industry can deliver a sensor as a service across a platform and the wider integrated air/sea enterprise.”

But to achieve integration there have to be agreed upon standards with regard to data exchange and security. “We need a continued focus on consistency in our data links and communications in contested environments, our multi-level security and data exchange systems, and this is where industry and the services need to work together to define and agree to approaches to interoperability in Australian and coalition environments.”

And although he did not use this term, he focused on “Big Data” management challenges to get to where integrated forces can achieve operational advantages and superiority.

“We need to finally embrace the technical and security challenges posed by large volumes of data being collected, processed and disseminated in Australia and in deployed environments. We need to work with Defence to identify innovative solutions to ensure data is available when, where and in the form it is needed.”

He sees approaches such as the use of system integration labs as ways to shape more effective integration.

“Our approach is to work as an industry team to deliver the outcomes needed by Defence through initiatives such as our systems integration labs – housed at BAE Systems, but used by RAF, other UK services and our broader industry partners.

And this is a model which we believe the ADF could adopt for future platforms and systems.”

He hammered home the point that a new industry-government working relationship was crucial to achieve the force integration possible in a software development and data-sharing world.

“The depth, breadth and unrivalled global access of the major defence primes will be critical to Defence achieving the best air and sea integration outcomes – and we would like to work more closely and more collaboratively with Defence in the planning phases.

“It’s great to see First Principles, the Defence Industry Policy and the White Paper address this very issue – but we need to ensure we maintain momentum and truly work together in a partnership moving forward.”

WF_AIRSEA_160810_Winter

The Perspective of Rob Slaven, L-3 Communication Systems, Australia: The Challenge of Data Security in Coalition Operations

In both Williams Seminars this year on force integration, first on air-land, and the second on air-sea, L-3 has provided solid presentations on the communications side of the challenge.

At the air-land seminar earlier this year, Victor King, L-3 Mission Integration, provided an overview on ways to shape seamless situational awareness.

In that presentation, King talked to the question of how to balance substantial government investment in existing military systems designed to remain operational for decades with rapidly changing technology?

His answer focused on three key elements:

  1. Integrated commercial technology and standards with current military systems;
  2. Allow the market to drive technology and provide infrastructure;
  3. Utilize both military and commercial networks for an end-to-end solution.

In the air-sea integration seminar, Captain Rob Slaven, DSM RAN (Retired) and now from L-3, provided a look at the communications side of the challenge for shaping and operating an integrated force.

Slaven’s briefing was entitled: “Joint Force Information Exchange and Data Integrity in a Coalition Environment.”

He emphasized that coalition operations are essentially come as you are warfare and requires working the interoperability piece is very challenging.

“For a Coalition finding a common cause is hard, speaking one language is harder, whilst using common systems and equipment configurations would seem to be the hardest challenge of them all.”

As difficult as the challenge is, it needs to be addressed for coalitions to be effective. He focused on a multi-step approach to sorting through a solution.

“Internationally agreed interface standards and programming languages are a first step. A next step is to initiate a cyber secure program environment from project initiation.”

Clearly, one would like to get to the point of having a shared common operational picture.

But there is a broader problem raised by Slaven’s presentation, which needs to be addressed.

Which allies for which coalitions for which tasks and solutions? The countries which have core security and data sharing arrangements such as the US, the UK and Australia can seek ways to share data, that will not simply work within a broader political coalition environment.

How to best two tier solutions but with reasonable commonality as well? And this will clearly affect the training and exercise side of the equation, a subject addressed in part by the CAE briefing.

The Perspective of Rear Admiral (Retired) Rapp, Senior Naval Advisor, CAE: The Crucial Role of LVCT in the Crafting of an Integrated Force

Rear Admiral James Rapp is Senior Naval Advisor to CAE. His final operational appointment in the Royal Navy was as Flag Office Sea Training. Employing a staff of 600, he was responsible for the operational sea training of all the Royal Navy’s hips, submarines and auxiliaries, and ships from 19 other foreign navies.

Rear Admiral (Retired) Rapp focused on the increasingly dynamic and transformative role of training systems in shaping the way ahead for the joint force.

Live Virtual Constructive Training would see a greater role in the evolution of the joint force as it forged greater opportunities for force integration.

In addition to reviewing the advantages of LVCT, he underscored how essential it was in terms of operating in a training environment where security can be maintained for the fifth generation-enabled force.

He argued that “security constraints are a key barrier to integration” and highlighted ways in LVCT could assist in providing practical ways to seek solutions rooted in the training environment.

He used the example of CAE’s support to the UAE Navy as an example of how an integrated training solution can provide benefits both to industry and the client in terms of enhanced training capabilities, and learning curves.

“In the UAE case, having a single training systems provider has reduced costs, risks and enhanced the training schedule as well.”

He presented a clear case for an effective industry-service partnership in the training area to get efficiencies, flexibility and effectiveness in the training domain.

The Perspective of John Thompson, Northrop Grumman: Shaping Capabilities to Prevail in the Electronic Magnetic Warfare Maneuver Space

John Thompson is director of business development for the Force Protection business unit in Northrop Grumman’s Mission Systems sector. As the senior business development representative for the Mission Systems sector’s electronic business area, Thompson leads the development and acquisition of advanced electronic warfare programs.

His presentation focused on the way ahead in the non-kinetic warfare area and its implications for full spectrum maneuverability in the air-sea battle space.

He started by focusing on a Growler being flown by an Australian pilot firing an anti-radiation missile. He saw that pilot as a node in the network, rather than simply seeing it as a plane. He saw that pilot both as a supported and supporting element in a combat network.

He suggested resetting the electronic warfare approach to understand that it is really about connectivity within the network and the ability of the network to function.

It is part of the operation of the network, rather than being a stove-piped functional capability.

He highlighted as well the CNO’s concept of operating in the electronic maneuver warfare space. And a key goal of the attack side of such operations is to create chaos in the adversary’s operational space.

He argued that it was crucial as well to shape redundant systems to be able to defend against electronic threats as well. For combat success, agility is crucial for the forces, and in that regard EW is a crucial capability, which needs to be built into the integrated force.

How do I engage at range?

In the example cited by Captain Walker of the Type 45 destroyer as the wingman for an F-35, the task is highlighted whereby target identification then pushes the choice of weapon to the appropriate capability in the battlespace.

“How will I generate a weapons quality track at range and distribute that track to the best available shooter?”

The Perspective of Lowell Shayn Hawthorne, Mitre Corporation: Evolving Approaches to Integrated Air and Missile Defense

The Mitre executive started his presentation by articulating how he saw the Australian situation.

  • The future will find Australian Defence Forces (ADF) conducting global operations
  • In a variety of environments from low intensity up to Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) conditions
  • Requiring IAMD to protect joint forces.

His presentation then went on to discuss the evolving threat environment, which requires more flexible and enhanced integrated defense.

He argued that the strategic direction of the effort needed to ensure that “every asset is part of the IAMD net.”

The rest of the briefing set out how he thought this goal could be achieved or put differently, what needed to happen in order to achieve this objective.

He noted, “All systems must work together to achieve common goals in coalition and sovereign operations.”

This might well be a too hard to do issue, and perhaps can happen for a small subset of states but more difficult across coalitions.

Indeed both Chief of Navy and the Commander of the Australian Fleet, both highlighted the importance of sovereignty operations and the need to shape their integrated force obviously with close connections with the United States.

Where best to fit in IAMD into the Australian picture?

The background of Lowell Shayn Hawthorne highlights in many ways the nature of the presentation.

Mr. Shayn Hawthorne has served as the Technical Director of the OSD/MDA Program Division since March 2014 where he has developed excellent relationships with his two Portfolio Directors and Division Leadership while leading the Division through significant workforce shaping activities and helping both Portfolios achieve significant growth.

Previously, Shayn led the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Space Knowledge Center as the Technical Director, which performs independent technical assessments and evaluates experiments related to MDA space programs currently being executed. There, Shayn worked with MITRE, other FFRDCs/UARCs, and the MDA to achieve mission success. In previous MITRE work efforts, Mr. Hawthorne has been by-name requested to lead Advanced Development efforts for Air Force space situational awareness, missile warning, and missile defense sensors, as well as Command and Control (C2) systems and correlator/tracker systems.

The US built a missile defense agency, precisely to do missile defense. The problem is that in a warfighting sense dealing with an adversaries’ missiles is even more of an offensive challenge than a defensive one, and clearly what is on offer is shaping an offensive-defensive enterprise that engages to kill adversary forces, with whatever means are necessary.

In an interview conducted in Hawaii in 2014 with the then head of Army ADA, the point was underscored as follows:

The General discussed the role of ADA within Pacific defense as part of the support to airpower and to strategic decision-making.

He emphasized that the capabilities of ADA helped provide time to determine how to both generate more air power and how to use airpower and provided the national command authority time to determine how best to respond to a crisis.

There are three ways to deal with an incoming missile defense. 

There is passive defense, but there is only so much hardening and dispersal one can do without degrading your combat capability, and their many soft targets, which cannot be hardened.

You can use air strikes to take out the adversary’s missile strike force, but you may not wish to do that right away or have not fully mobilized your capability. 

The role of having active defense or an interceptor force is to buy time for [Lieutenant] General [Jan-Marc] Jouas (7th USAF Commander in the Pacific) or General [Hawk] Carlisle (the PACAF Commander) to more effectively determine how to use their airpower. 

It also allows the National Command Authority to determine the most effective way ahead with an adversary willing to strike US or allied forces and territory with missiles.

This is very close to the view articulated by the head of Australian Army Modernization, Major General McLachlan, concerning how he saw the evolving role of the Aussie Army in the defense of Australia through what the U.S. Army would call Air Defense Artillery (ADA) or shaping the lower tier to a missile defense system engaged with the power projection forces.

From his perspective, the more effective the territory of Australia could be used to shape effective defenses, the more the Air Force and Navy could focus on extended operations. He characterized this as shaping an Australian anti-access and area denial force.

Clearly, integrated air and missile defense for Australia was really not that; they are too small a force to execute the mission in these terms.

They need to shape a capable integrated force, which can execute seamlessly operations in an offensive-defensive enterprise.

They will never have enough defensive capability to deter the most likely adversaries; but with potent extended reach with some integrated defensive capabilities, they can provide for deterrence.

The way Air Commodore Heap put the goal: “We are small but we want to be capable of being a little Tasmanian Devil that you don’t want to play with because if you come at us, were going to give you a seriously hard time that will probably not be worth the effort; deterrence in its purest form.”

What Australia does in the air and missile defense regime will flow from this strategic goal and not provide for an independent capability. The American solution cannot be easily morphed to Australia.

Hawthorne’s excellent presentation introduces a number of key elements for a solution set; the question is how Australia can best leverage some of his suggestions?

Brazil: What Next?

09/08/2016

2016-09-08 By Kenneth Maxwell

On August 31 Dilma Rousseff was impeached by the Brazilian senate.

The vote was 61 to 20 to convict her for violating budget and fiscal responsibility laws.

The outcome was unambiguous.

Yet the Chief Justice of the Brazilian Supreme Court, Ricardo Lewandowski, who presided over the senate impeachment trial, unexpectedly introduced a second vote on removing Dilma Rousseff’s political rights for eight years. 

The Senate then voted by 42 to 36 that these political rights should not be removed.

It was an unanticipated interpretation of the Brazilian constitution.

And it caused immediate confusion and suspicions of back room deals.

Lewandowski was appointed to the Supreme Court by President Lula da SIlva, and some commentators in Brasilia were suspicious that Lewandowski, together with Renan Calheiros, the president of the senate, and many politicians caught up in the anti corruption “Lava Jato” (“car wash”)  investigation of federal judge Sergio Moro, were thinking of creating a precedent for softer penalties.

And the second vote set of a new round of appeals to the Supreme Court, led by Fernando Holiday, on behalf of the “Movimento Brasil Livre” ( Brazil Free Movement ), which was one of the principal organisations promoting Dilma’s impeachment.

They now called for Lewandowski’s impeachment, as well as the impeachment of Renan Calheiros.

In all 10 appeals have been filed with the Supreme Court, the strongest from the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), and former PT senator Delcidio do Amaral, expelled from the senate, has asked the Supreme Court to reinstate his eligibility for public office.

Lewandowski will be succeed as president of the Supreme Court on the 10th September by  Supreme Court justice Carmen Lucia, who has a reputation for toughness and has little tolerance for corruption. Dilma, meanwhile, has the right to remain in the presidential residence, the Alvorada Palace in Brasilia, for thirty days. But she decided to leave on Tuesday afternoon for Porto Alegre. She will later apparently move to an Ipanema beach-front apartment in Rio de Janeiro.

The Supreme Court could still declare Dilma ineligible to hold public office.

The circle around Temer certainly hopes so. Though Temer, the constitutionalist scholar, had argued that two penalties in a case of impeachment were in fact constitutional. But that was some time ago in his text book.

And it was in theory.

On the day the senate voted to impeach Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer, who has been acting president, was inaugurated in the senate chamber as the new president of Brazil.

He will serve in theory until the next presidential election scheduled in two years time. President Temer then left for Hangzhou, China, for the meeting of the G-20. Rodrigo Maia, the president of the lower house of of Congress became president during Temer’s week-long absence, as is the Brazilian tradition.

In fact Brazil had three presidents in one day: outgoing president Dilma, incoming president Michel Temer, and acting president Rodrigo Maia. Protests against Temer (“fora Temer” ) erupted over the weekend in Rio de Janeiro and in São Paulo and in other Brazilian cities.

The demonstrations on the Avenida Paulista in São Paulo were initially banned by Geraldo Alckmin, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) governor of the state.  There had been violent attacks on bank branches in the downtown São Paulo by anarchist “black blocs.”

Hangzhou:Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, South African President Jacob Zuma and Brazilian President Michel Temer posing for a group photo before the BRICS meeting in Hangzhou, China. PTI Photo
Hangzhou:Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, South African President Jacob Zuma and Brazilian President Michel Temer posing for a group photo before the BRICS meeting in Hangzhou, China. PTI Photo

In China, Michel Temer, said that the pro-Dilma demonstrators were “a handful of car wreckers” which provoked a massive demonstration of 100,000 on the Avenida Paulista.

The  anti-Temer demonstrators revived the demand for “Diretas Já” (direct elections now), a battle cry of huge demonstrations against the military government in 1984. The situation on the streets of São Paulo was aggravated by the violent reaction of the military police which attacked peaceful demonstrators. Images were quickly and widely circulated on social media. Brazil after all has the second largest number of users of Facebook in the world.

President Temer returned to Brazil from China in time to attend the 7th of September Brazilian Independence Day celebrations in Brasilia before flying to Rio for the opening of the Paralympic Games.

He is unlikely to receive a warm reception at either event.

He remains deeply unpopular.

The latest opinion polling show him with only 8% to 19% approval ratings in Brazil’s major cities. In Rio he has 12% of those polled thinking he is “excellent” or “good” and 42% thinking he is “bad” or “péssimo”.

In São Paulo 13%  think he is excellent or good, and 41% believe he is bad or useless.  In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais state, 13% approve of him while 47% rejected him.

Temer is a 75 year old “paulista.”

Both former Worker’s Party (PT) president Lula, and former Brazilian Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), are also São Paulo-based politicians, though both had their origins elsewhere. Lula came from the poor backlands of the North Eastern Brazil. FHC is originally from Rio de Janeiro.

But they each made their political career in São Paulo, which is Brazil’s financial and industrial capital. The city’s population is expected to reach 12 million next year.

Dilma, on the other hand was originally from the south central inland state of Minas Gerais, though she had made her political career in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Michel Temer is a constitutional law professor and a long term politician and a member of the Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB), which is a centrist coalition of regional bosses that has been a permanent and critical bloc in Congress since the end of military rule in 1985, supporting whoever was in power, but prepared to shift sides as the winds political sentiment have moved over time.

The PMDB supported the PSDB of FHC during his two terms as president, and then supported Lula and the PT during his two terms. And the PMDB then provided Temer as the Vice President for president Dilma.  Previously Temer had been three times elected president of the lower house of congress.

He is a man who knows the intricacies, the betrayals, and the deals which grease the wheels of the political system in Brasilia.

In this sense Temer is infinitely better prepared than Dilma was to work within the system.

Dilma, who had never been elected before she was chosen by Lula to become the PT’s presidential candidate, dramatically and fatally lost the support of congress, and then lost the presidency, when the former speaker of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, organised the campaign, that led to the vote in the lower house, which began the process that ended in her impeachment by the senate.

Eduardo Cunha although now “afastado” (removed from office) on corruption accusations, is a determined and unscrupulous operator, and a skilled long term denizen of the murky backrooms of Brazilian politics, and he still has many “friends” and “allies” in the lower house, and he has not yet been definitively removed from office. Like Michel Temer, he knows where the bodies are buried, and he will not hesitate to use this knowledge in his own defence. Cunha’s allies are attempting to preserve his political rights.

If the House of Representatives votes against him by a majority he will not be eligible to hold office for eight years.

While there is now some political clarity in Brazil, and Temer is now the president, the political circus in Brasilia is far from over.

The PT has been removed from power after 13 years in government, but the legitimacy of the new government is contested on the streets, and by the PT, as well as by many union members, intellectuals and artists, as well as by powerful “social” movements, which have been relatively quiet during the years of PT rule but can still provide serious opposition on the streets and in the countryside.

And the economic and financial crisis continues.

The Brazilian economy declined by 4.6% in the first semester of 2016 in relation to the year before, and Brazil still faces its most profound recession in almost 50 years. And already inflation is impacting the poor much more than the rich. For those with 1 to 2.5 minimum salaries, inflation rose to 9.29% in August. The average rise was 8.48%.

And the corruption scandals have not gone away either.

Petrobras-related cases continue. There is a major new investigation of state and private pension funds (“operation greenfield”) where the federal police have already seized thousand of dollars, euros, works of art and luxury automobiles. The federal prosecutors are investigating JBS, the greatest meat processor in the world.

And renewed investigations are underway into bribes paid in the São Paulo metro and the World Cup stadium in Bahia involving the construction company OAS.

But policy changes are already profound. 

The PT alliance of left wing South American regimes is in tatters. Cuba, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador, have all recalled their ambassadors, and Foreign Minister José Serra has made his views abundantly clear about the regime in Venezuela. His relationships with Brazil’s partners in Mercosul have been difficult.

And a diplomatic revolution is underway in South America with an closer ties with Peru, Columbia, and with Argentina under president Mauricio Macri.

Michel Temer met with the leaders of the BRICS on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in China and he is due to attend the next summit of the BRICS in India, but it is unlikely that Temer (and most particularly Serra) will be as enthusiastic as Lula or Dilma were for the putative alliance of developing world powers. 

But the China-Brazil relationship is more complicated.

China is Brazilian largest trading partner.

And while president Temer was in China, Chinese state grid corporation agreed to a US$1.8 billion purchase of a 23.6% stake in CPFL Energia, and is expected to take a majority control of Brazil’s largest private electric sector company.

This CPFL deal was one of nine corporate deals between companies that were signed during the Temer visit. Ironically, the CPFL deal arises from the consequences of the Lava Jato investigation into corruption at Camargo Corrêa, one of the electricity company’s main shareholders.

The political horizon in Brazil, however, remains very clouded.

The “tucanos” as the PSDB are called after the Brazilian bird, have three major figures in competition for the next presidential campaign: Geraldo Alckmin, the governor of São Paulo, senator Aécio Neves, former governor of Minas Gerais, and foreign minister José Serra, former governor of São Paulo.

All three are former presidential candidates. Dilma Rousseff allegedly called Temer a “Decorative” Vice President.  He certainly now has a decorative “First Lady” in Marcela Temer, 42 years his junior, and who has esconced on a third floor office close to his own in the Planalto Presidential palace  in Brasilia, where she will run a new “happy child” program.

The Brazilian literary magazine “Piaui”  summed up the new Brazilian regime succinctly on its September cover. It showed a happy president Temer, dressed in the presidential sash, arriving home at the family cottage, to be greeted by his young son, and by his smiling wife. She is standing on the cottage doorstep wearing apron embroidered with the logo “Lar, Doce Lar” (“Home sweet Home”).

But overall very deep divisions remain in Brazil.

There has long been a visceral hostility to the PT among the middle class in Brazil.

And it has only been aggravated by the corruption scandals and the economic recession. The PT and its acolytes are no less hostile to those they believe robbed them unfairly of the presidency in a legalistic and constitutional coup.

Someone is supposed to have said you should not get what you wish for.

Temer and his acolytes will have their work cut out for themselves now they have inherited the Brazilian mess.

And they will have no one else to blame for it now but themselves.