2014-07-19 By Stig Jarle Hansen, Associate

Senior Analyst, Risk Intelligence

Overview

Since the French intervention early in 2013, the Mali conflict has been a defining one for regional security. The intervention itself was successful in the short run.

Territorial integrity was more or less restored by the end of 2013, and expectations directed towards the new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, are high.

The military gains of the various Islamist forces in Mali have been undone.

But the area cannot be entirely controlled and a low-level insurgency campaign may be able to operate with relative impunity at least in the short term.

Operation Serval

As early as February 2013, the French-led operations as part of ‘Operation Serval’ attacked the Ifoghas mountains and rebel strongholds around Gao. At the peak, 4,000 French soldiers and around 7,000 troops from various West African countries in the so-called African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA) were in action.

However, the Islamists did not actively fight the international alliance, understanding that they had no possible chance of withstanding them, but resorted to guerrilla war and terrorism. The terror attacks included suicide bombing: on 30 March 2013, the city of Timbuktu was attacked when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a Malian army checkpoint.

On 12 April, two suicide bombers detonated their belts near a group of Chadian soldiers in a busy market in Kidal. Overall, the military campaign proved relatively successful. France subsequently withdrew a portion of its forces, indicating that only 1,000 men would remain after April 2014. AFISMA was turned into a United Nations mission: United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, MINUSMA.

The size of this force was in theory set to 12,000, but it became hard to get contributions, the AFISMA being turned into MINUSMA almost en masse (with some few West African forces withdrawing elements), with minor contributions from the West. The forces lacked air mobility, with few air assets, in a land with large stretches of desert and wilderness, but helped oversee a successful election, as well as peace agreements with the various non-Islamist oppositional forces, including the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). The international and Malian forces even managed to kill off Hacene Ould Khalill, also known as Jouleibib, the deputy commander of the infamous Those Who Sign In Blood Brigade.

However, the structural problems that at the start created the Mali rebellion are still there. There is a security vacuum in neighboring Niger and it seems, over the last months of 2013, that a reorganized alliance of Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s former part of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has unified with the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) to become al-Mourabitoun. Moreover, the mistakes that initially created the space for the Islamists – an unjust, fragmented and corrupt state structure, more an arena for clashing elites and predation than a modern state – might be recreated, as indicated by the promotion of former Malian officers involved in the coup.

It should be remembered that the Islamist takeover from the north was caused by tensions between the government and the northerners, with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) taking advantage of the confusion after a coup in Bamako.

Will such a window of opportunity present itself again?

It was initially created by an armed rebellion launched on 17 January 2012, enhanced by a military coup that deposed President Amadou Toumani Touré on 22 March the same year. However, structural conditions, relating to tribe, religion, and the quality of Malian institutions, created a weakness that made the explosion possible. Indeed, the rebellion can be seen as a continuation of the previous Tuareg rebellions taking place in Mali in 1962-64, 1991-1995, and 2007-2009. Tribal politics, Malian state inefficiency, and geographical challenges were all a problem, then as now.

The difference this time was the Islamist ideology that was spread into the country.

Worth considering are the local conditions that enabled a situation that Islamists could take advantage of, while also noting the tribal mechanisms including among the Islamists themselves.

An institutional and tribal crisis?

To understand the current situation in Mali, and indeed the neighboring countries, one has to understand the tribal, economic, and institutional foundations of the rebels. Indeed, the Malian crisis was partly created by an institutional crisis, as well as a crisis of clientelism in the Malian state and also the Malian army.

During the initial rebel campaign, Malian units feared their own commanders or at times did not expect actually to fight rebels because of the bonds of clientelism. The command and control system was hampered by these factors leading to very poor performance by the Malian army. Given that several of the old commanders, who were also behind the coup, have been re-instated, the question is whether we will actually see a new and more efficient army. Tribalism was a large factor in the conflict, as it has been before, as was class; even the Islamists had tribal/ clan connections.

In fact tribalism becomes a slightly misleading word because of the Tuaregs’ advanced tribal system, a system divided up into classes as well as tribes. The class system of the Tuaregs consists of the Imajaghan, the traditional ruling dynasty, a warrior and princely caste; the Imgad, the second warrior caste; the priestly Marabout or Inselmen class; the Inadan blacksmiths; and the farmers, Zeggaghan. There was also a slave caste. The two last castes were alien to the rebellion.

In addition to the caste system, the Tuaregs are also divided into clans, following a matrilineal pattern. In other words, your mother’s tribe is your tribe, although the tribal leaders are always men.

Each clan consists of various castes, although sometimes, as in Mali, several castes are geographically separated from each other. In the case of Mali, the rebellion to a certain extent was a Kel Adagh rebellion (var. Kel Adrar, Kel Adghagh, less commonly Kel Ifoghas: meaning ‘those from the mountains’ in Tamasheq, a local variation of the Tuareg language, and also a clan federation). The majority of the tribe was made up of the Imajagahan and the Imgad castes. The Tuareg group that launched the rebellion, the MNLA, hailed from the Kel Adagh and fought, in a pattern common in Malian history, against what they felt was suppression of Tuaregs, but also for independence.

They were soon to be outflanked by another Tuareg movement hailing from the same clan but from different sub-clans, the Ansar Dine. This was led by a Tuareg chieftain, Iyad AgGhali. It was perhaps Ansar Dine that was different from the previous Tuareg rebellions in 1963, 1990, 1993-1994(in Gao), 2006, and 2007-2009. From 2009 and onwards, stronger Islamist factions appeared on the battlefield; in2012 they gained widespread control.

The role of Islam

The Islamization of parts of the Tuareg rebellion, and the turning south of AQIM, contributed a new dimension to the usual center–periphery (or rather center–Tuareg) conflicts of Mali. AQIM was in itself an Algerian organization officially affiliated to al-Qaeda in 2007. However, its members had immunity in Mali as a consequence ofa deal freeing 32 Western hostages mediated by Iyad AgGhali and sanctioned by the Malian state in 2003.

This gave safety to local representatives, who increasingly became married into Malian society. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, for example, married an Arab woman from Timbuktu. AQIM gained much wealth from border smuggling and kidnapping operations, which enabled them to buy off the Malian police and army.

By 2005, AQIM operations were striking into Mauritania as well, and by 2011 also Niger. According to claims by Al Jazeera, a separate entity recruited in Mali and Mauritania, the al-Furqan Squadron led by the Algerian Jamal Akasha,was established, The parts of al-Qaeda acted quite independently, but some central control might have been reasserted when AQIM sent a new leader to the area in 2007.

Fragmentation, at times across ethnic lines, continued to plague the organization; the most serious was when SultanOuld Baddy, a former smuggler also known as AbuAli, split off, allegedly after wanting to have his own ethnically defined forces made up of Arab Azawad. In December2011, the new organization of MUJAO, composed mostly of southern Saharans, emerged from within its ranks. Baddy was joined by Mauritanian activist HamadaOuld Mohamed al-Khair, also known as Abu Qaqa. The organization at the start recruited mostly from the Arab Lamhar tribe (also known as Ahmar), attempting, often very successfully, to sway fighters from this tribe away from al-Qaeda.

The tension between the two was quite great, but Mokhtar Belmokhtar intervened in order to make peace. The organizations became able to co-ordinate and, although the claim is speculative, Belmokhtar might have had more sympathy with Baddy than his nominal leaders to the north. MUJAO briefly held Gao in 2012, and actively tried to promote law and order based on the sharia. It reportedly managed to transcend its initially ethnic foundations by recruiting among the Songhais, presenting a law and order alternative to the more secular Tuareg militias, which often raped and pillaged.

There were many rumors that were hard to assess, for example that the organization recruited more members from smaller villages famous for stricter practices. The last piece in the Islamist trinity was Ansar Dine, led by Iyad Ag Ghali, also known as Abou El Fadl, veteran Tuareg rebel leader, and indeed a traditional leader from the Ifoghas. He was crucial in the Tuareg rebellion of the early 1990s, but joined the government. He had also acted as intermediary between the government andal-Qaeda in hostage situations in the 2000s.

Allegedly, he had become more religious when encountering the Jama’at al-Da’wa wa al-Tabligh, becoming more inspired by them from 2000 onwards. Iyad Ag Ghali had previously been known to enjoy a drink now and then. Some sources, including reports from Time magazine, claim that it was tribal rivalries that led to Iyad Ag Ghali creating Ansar, after he failed to gain the traditional leadership of the Ifoghas.

This might be true, but would be hard to confirm. Ansar Dine was locally focused, and often mentioned sharia implementation as its main target. It also managed to get a foothold amongst the Berabiche Arabs from the Timbuktu area. Ansar’s tribal link means that it is more vulnerable, and that parts of it are only loosely Islamist. Ifoghas have also joined because of family networks, for the lure of profit, and for career opportunities for both former Tuareg nationalists and former al-Qaeda junior commanders, such as Sanda Ould Boumana. Ansar Dine could also take advantage of the prominent profile of AQIM, because other factions declared the latter a primary opponent.

The three Islamist organizations all had definitive criminal connections. Indeed, in a first wave of analysis they had been depicted as almost criminal, profit-based organizations.

However, after the In Amenas attack in Algeria, several analysts suggested that all of them took advantage of illegal arms trade, smuggling, and even drug trafficking to harness resources for jihad. The reality is probably a combination: with profitability often comes corruption.

What about the Islamist trinity today?

Although many analysts are reluctant to trust the info, it seems logical that relations between Belmokhtar’s units of AQIM and MUJAO would grow more intense, partly because of increased estrangement between Belmokhtar and AQIM. By August 2013, Operation Serval had disrupted the operations of the trinity, and it was claimed to have inflicted 400-600 casualties. A large number of fighters switched sides, but many stayed in the Islamist organisations to continue fighting.

In Gao, MUJAO still has strong roots partly because of tribal links. Observers have also speculated whether the various Islamist organisations could seek shelter in Niger, Chador Libya, countries in which territorial control of the Saharan area is of a random type. In Libya, it seems that the pattern of Tuareg areas and location of refugees from al-Qaeda match each other, with al-Qaeda being based in the valleys of the Akkakush mountains north of the town of Ghat. At the same time there are indications of some Nigerian presence in Mali, as posters promoting the Nigerian jihadists of Ansaru and reports of Nigerian participants start to appear.

Meanwhile there are rumours emerging of recruits coming to the Islamists from countries to the north and as refugees from Western Sahara. In Mali, other cleavages might still create a window of opportunity for these organizations.

The more secular Tuaregmilitias, the MNLA and the Azawad Arab Movement (MAA), only have an interim peace agreement with the government and have not disarmed. A final federalised solution has yet to be implemented.

A new conflict between the government and MNLA and MAA might still occur, although the presence of the international coalition calms the situation down, and the threat of such a scenarios diminished by the frequent interaction between these organizations and the new government.

What is the potential for the Islamists?

The vacuum of the Sahel cannot be filled, as the neighboring states lack the capacity to control the area fully, although in the end technology might make insurgent operations harder. The chaos in Libya also allows al-Qaeda veterans as well as Ansar Dine and al-Mourabitoun jihadist refugees to find refuge, and the Ifoghas Mountains can still provide some shelter.

On the other hand, the French and West African forces inside Mali cannot be beaten in open battle in Mali: the organizations are relegated to guerrilla fighting. They could be able to keep themselves alive for years in this manner; they would probably not be fully defeated, rather controlled and kept from capturing territories. Given this, and the porous borders of the region, as well as the capacities of the regional powers, the security situation will remain unstable. Al-Mourabitoun is definitively threat against oil installations in the whole region.

The vastness of the deserts and the traditional mobile fighting style of the group will ensure that it can penetrate far into the territories of Niger, Mauritania, Algeria and Libya. This will be the case in the foreseeable future, and canine fact only be stopped by an increased regional aerial surveillance capacity, a capacity that is not currently near the level needed to prevent such activities.

It is also highly likely that the group will resume kidnapping activities. Al-Mourabitoun will, however, not be able to take and hold territories in any of the region’s countries, nor will it probably be able to establish larger training camps. It may also be vulnerable to targeted attacks, such as the apparent operation by French Special Forces in April 2014 that targeted the leader of al-Mourabitoun, Abubakral-Nasri.

The fragility of regional governments, with their general failure to curtail Islamist activities, means that analyses of the capacities of these governments and their security services should be conducted in any good risk plan. It is not any longer good enough to assume, as several companies before the In Amenas incident did, that local authorities would provide security.

This piece was republished with the permission of our partner Risk Intelligence. To subscribe to their regular publication Strategic Insights please go their website:

http://www.strategicinsights.eu/

This piece was first published in the July 2014 issue.

Editor’s Note: For some of our earlier pieces on Mali see the following:

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/un-uavs-to-mali/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/prc-peacekeepers-arrive-in-mali/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-role-of-expeditionary-logistics-in-shaping-new-combat-capabilities-the-case-of-france-in-mali/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-french-in-mali-shaping-the-logistics-element-of-the-operation/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-french-operation-in-mali-the-logistics-side/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-french-operation-in-mali-intervene-leverage-and-withdraw/

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-french-in-mali-phase-two/

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014-07-16 By Kenneth Maxwell

With the World Cup behind them President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Xi Jinping of China, and President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, met in Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil, this week for the sixth BRICS summit .

BRICS is an acronym conceived by Jim O’Neill, the head of global economics at Goldman Sachs in 2001, to describe major emerging economies. It was not intended as a geopolitical description. Two of the principal members of the group, China and India, were long time rivals. The idea originally was a construct for investment bankers.

The BRICS concept was launched when the world was in a “unipolar” moment. Washington was in the ascendancy. It was seen to be the world’s remaining superpower.

The Soviet Union had collapsed. The US dollar was the currency of last resort.

The US dominated the world’s financial institutions.

But the world has changed dramatically for the US and its global position:

• The terrorist attack on New York City and Washington on 9/11;
• U.S. overreach in Afghanistan and Iraq;
• The rise of bitterly partisan politics in Washington;
• US domestic disenchantment with overseas engagements;
• The financial meltdown of 2008;
• President Obama’s disinclination to use US power;
• The rise of newly assertive Russia and the annexation of the Crimea;
• The insatiable appetite of the US to spy, not only on potential terrorists which is entirely justified, but also on friends like Angela Merkel and Dilma Rousseff which is not, especially if it this spying on allies and friends is revealed, which it has been.

All these factors have transformed the rules of the game.

In effect, the BRICS are seeking to operate and shape strategic space being vacated by the United States and Europe.

Despite continuing skepticism about the BRICS in the West, its role has expanded by default.

With Europe deep in the Euro crisis and demonstrating little global leadership to supplement, complement, or supplant the role of the United States, a power vacuum is being filled.

The BRICS leaders met with all of South America’s presidents in Brasilia after the Fortaleza summit.

Brazil has long seen its role as a leader in the region, which its status as a BRICS member has enhanced.

On his way to Brazil President Putin visited Cuba (where he met Fidel as well as Raul Castro and cancelled all of Cuba’s Soviet era debts amounting to some US$ 30 billion). He also made a surprise visit to Nicaragua.  He then visited Argentina (where he supported Argentina’s claims to the Falkland island).

The BRICS summit, needless to say, avoided criticizing Russia over its actions in the Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea.

The U.S. and Europe denied China a share of voting rights at the IMF commensurate with the weight of its economy.

President Xi Jinping stayed on for a state visit to Brazil after the Fortaleza summit. China has since 2009 been Brazil largest trading partner. 41.2% of all Brazil’s exports go to China and 34.2% of all import to Brazil comes from China. China has promised to invest in Brazilian infrastructure projects and rail network.

The Chinese president will go on to visit Argentina, Venezuela, and Cuba.

The BRICS summit announced the launching of a BRICS New Development Bank, a joint project with an initial US$10 billion capitalization, to which each member contributed equally, headquartered in Shanghai, with an Indian as its first president. The bank anticipates increasing its capital to US100 billion within the next few years.

The BRICS summit also made a commitment to establish a reserve pool in local currencies to do business with each other hence avoiding the dollar.

The BRICS New Development Bank will begin making loans in 2016. Together with the currency pool it is intended “to help contain volatility faced by diverse economies as a result of the tapering of the United States policy of monetary expansion”

President Rousseff said at the close of the summit. “It is a sign of the times, which demand reform of the IMF.” China will contribute US$41 billion to the contingency currency pool. Brazil, India, Russia will add US$18 billion each, and South Africa will provide US$5 billion.

The aim of all the BRICS is to begin to reshape the Western dominated international financial system

These are all small first steps to be sure.

But they do mark an important beginning.

Despite their evident differences the BRICS are seeking to transform themselves into a new force.

Editor’s Note: Dr. Harald Malmgren adds this comment to the discussion about BRIC efforts:

While China has plenty of dollars, it cannot use them without risking strengthening its own currency. 

The other BRICs are all afflicted with insufficient dollars. 

Even so, the new BRIC Central Bank is quietly denominating its “reserves” in dollars, because none of them want BRIC currencies in exchange for their exports of goods and services. 

Anyway, the new BRIC bank is too small to influence world markets.

 

 

2014-07-16 By Lieutenant General Ted F. Bowlds USAF (ret)

To those who believe innovation inside the government, within the walls of the Pentagon bureaucracy is impossible, I am here to tell you it can happen.

It requires only two ingredients.

The first key ingredient is the entrepreneur, the innovator, and the person with the new novel idea.

Any organization has these individuals. It is a question of whether or not the organization encourages these individuals and welcomes their ideas or if the institution stifles and crushes their new ideas, “We’ve always done it this way.” thinking.

And this is where the second key ingredient to innovation rests, at the footsteps of a person in a leadership position within the bureaucracy who serves as the innovator’s champion.

It is not an office, a committee, or an organization, but a single person who makes a new idea a reality.

So the math is simple: individual with an idea plus a champion equals innovation.

During my short time as commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) I was witness to this rare occurrence of the individual + champion = innovation.

Within AFRL I certainly had no shortage of new and innovative ideas. By its nature, that is what a laboratory is supposed to do. Scientist and engineers love the work they do, that passion sores when the scientist see it actually in the hands of the war fighter. The challenge is often “selling” these new ideas to big Air Force.

While the Air Force has a history of embracing new technologies, like stealth, it has done so with caution. The champion who forced new thinking and embraced new ideas during my tenure was Michael Wynne, Secretary of the Air Force.

Mike Wynne took a direct interest in the work being undertaken within AFRL. Some of this interest was probably based on his love of research and where he began his Air Force career. But I believe what drove him most was his desire to push innovation and forward thinking into the Air Force. Mike consciously understood and believed in his part of the equation.

Two examples illustrate my point.

Direct Access Facilitated a Process of Innovation

First was my direct access to Secretary Wynne. About every six weeks, I would sit with the Secretary and discuss what was happening in AFRL, what new ideas we were pursuing, what discoveries had been realized, and where I needed his help as the champion.

While many individuals and organizations can claim such a privileged audience with the SecAF, it was the process that I took to get to these meetings that was truly remarkable. Secretary Wynne was directly involved in scheduling these discussions.

The meetings did not follow the established protocol for scheduling the SecAF’s time. Mike simply put it on his schedule.

Most important was the absence of any pre-briefs or advance charts to any other organization or office in the Pentagon. The discussion went directly from my thinking to discussion with Mike.

Lastly, other than Secretary Wynne’s assistant, there for any notes to be taken or action Mike directed to be taken, it was not a room filled with “strap hangers.” The meetings were a forum for clear discussions, identifying roadblocks, and taking action to quickly make things happen.

 AFRL Commander’s Challenge as an Innovative Approach

The second example was the AFRL Commander’s Challenge.

The simple concept behind the Challenge was to give two competing teams of young researchers a real world problem to solve in a head-to-head competition. The competition was setup to drive innovative problem solving in a short demanding time frame. With elements of technical, financial, contracting and program management, the Challenge also served as a learning tool.

When you take this environment and couple it with Secretary Wynne’s direct involvement, the results are magnified. Mike’s involvement ranged from picking the real world challenge (given his position he certainly had access to many issues needing to be solved) to presenting trophies to the winners.

These two small examples barely capture the innovative spirit Secretary Wynne brought to the Air Force thinking.

The ADVENT Engine

His creative leadership can be seen in large AFRL efforts like the The ADaptive Versatile ENgine Technology (or ADVENT) program, an AFRL aircraft engine development program with the goal of developing an efficient variable cycle engine for next generation military aircraft.

Most if not all of the transformational ideas put forth by AFRL while I was commander had Secretary Wynne’s personal support.

I also witnessed beyond my time as AFRL Commander Secretary Wynne’s style of leadership. He always encouraged discussion, especially when it generated new ideas and approaches. And he was not afraid to try something different especially if it benefited the war fighter.

In summary, let me offer a slight modification to my equation. Specifically;

Individual + Secretary Wynne = Innovation

Editor’s Note: The fruits of a process of innovation do not occur overnight.

With regard to the ADVENT engine project, progress has been made with a significant impact on US engine technologies.

According to a 2012 General Electric press release:

EVENDALE, OHIO – GE Aviation began testing its engine core for the ADaptive Versatile ENgine Technology (ADVENT) program with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory. The core test demonstrates GE’s most advanced core propulsion technologies including lightweight, heat-resistant ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials. These core technologies, along with an adaptive low pressure spool, will result in a 25 percent improvement in fuel efficiency, a 30 percent increase in operating range and a five-to-ten percent improvement in thrust compared to today’s fixed-cycle engines.

The ADVENT program is scheduled to conclude in 2013 with a full engine test. GE will continue to mature the ADVENT technologies through the Air Force’s Adaptive Engine Technology Development (AETD) program, which will conclude in 2016 following fan rig testing and a core engine test.

“The ADVENT engine is a revolutionary military engine,” said Jeff Martin, GE Aviation’s general manager for the ADVENT program. “Packaged together, GE’s variable-pressure-ratio fan, CMC materials and high-pressure-ratio core technologies will enable the Air Force to meet the aggressive performance targets required for future missions.”

“GE Aviation is honored to partner with the Air Force in the demonstration of these unique technologies with the U.S. Air Force,” said Dan McCormick, GE Aviation’s general manager for the AETD program. “Along with advanced controls and exhaust system designs, we will integrate proven ADVENT technologies like third-stream cooling and CMCs into our AETD engine.”

Unlike fixed cycle engine architectures powering today’s aircraft, variable cycle architectures are designed to operate efficiently in conditions across the entire flight envelope, including subsonic and supersonic speeds. GE’s adaptive cycle design includes a third stream of air that can be utilized for maximum fuel efficiency and provide thermal management advantages to a conventional engine.

The ADVENT engine is GE Aviation’s most recent development program to successfully demonstrate the variable cycle architecture. Following initial studies by Gerhard Neumann in the 1960s, GE’s YJ101 was the first full engine to demonstrate variable cycle capabilities in 1976. GE built on the YJ101 experience to produce the YF120 variable cycle engine for the Advanced Tactical Fighter project, which set the world supercruise record in 1990.

The ADVENT and AETD variable cycle engines are improving on the YF120 design while integrating technologies developed through GE Aviation’s $600 million investment in commercial engine programs, such as high pressure compressors and lightweight CMCs in the high- and low-pressure turbines that result in reduced engine weight and minimize the need for cooling. The ADVENT engine will be GE’s highest overall pressure ratio military engine, resulting in a significant fuel consumption improvement compared to today’s engines.

For the biography of Lieutenant General Ted F. Bowlds USAF (ret) during his time in the USAF see the following:

http://www.af.mil/AboutUs/Biographies/Display/tabid/225/Article/104809/lieutenant-general-ted-f-bowlds.aspx

And for an updated resume:

Ted_F._Bowlds_-_Resume

Editor’s Note About the Series:

This is the third in a multi-part series focusing on Mike Wynne and his impact on innovation in the Department of Defense:

The kick-off piece:

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/the-wynne-legacy-generating-and-diffusing-innovation/

From Lou Kratz

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/michael-w-wynne-i-hate-logistics/

And Wynne’s contribution to innovation in defense clearly is not over, and his contributions on a regular basis to Second Line of Defense certainly demonstrate this.

For example, her is his take on the potential role of the Advent engine in evolving the air combat capabilities of US forces:

http://sldinfo.wpstage.net/existential-warfare-preparing-the-usaf-for-decade-ahead/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2014-07-09 By Robbin Laird

When we wrote our book on Pacific strategy, a key element in considering how the key challenges facing the United States and its allies was how Japanese relationships with the US and the Pacific allies might evolve.

The entire second section of our book deals with Japan, and after a history of the relationship, which was largely, the work of Dr. Richard Weitz, we focused on where Japanese defense policy might evolve in the coming years. We argued that with the emergence of the “dynamic defense” approach Japan would reach out to shape new capabilities to provide for perimeter defense and to plus up its working relationships with allies in the region.

We argued that:

The Chinese seem bent on driving the two greatest maritime powers of the 20th century together into a closer alliance.

And at the heart of this alliance are key joint investments and procurement working relationships.

Japan is a key technological partner for the United States throughout. They are a founding member of the Aegis global enterprise.

They are an investor and operational partner in the SM-3 missile capability to enhance missile defense.

They are a major player in the F-35 program, which will allow the shaping of an attack-and-defense enterprise.

They are building a final assembly facility for the F-35, which will become a key element in the F-35 global procurement system, subject to Japanese
government policy decisions.

And they are keenly interested in seeing how the Osprey can shape greater reach and range for the “dynamic defense” of Japan.

Laird, Robbin F.; Timperlake, Edward (2013-10-28). Rebuilding American Military Power in the Pacific: A 21st-Century Strategy: A 21st-Century Strategy (The Changing Face of War) (Kindle Locations 3968-3969). ABC-CLIO. Kindle Edition.

Hardly had the book been printed than the Japanese government moved forward on its “dynamic defense” policy. Notably, the current Prime Minister has worked to reshape Japanese policy to allow it to become a more significant contributor for its neighbors and to provide a more significant contribution to the US and allied deterrence in depth strategy, which is emerging in this decade of the 21^st century.

With the decisions made to re-set Japanese defense policy, the Japanese government will clearly play a greater role in Pacific defense.

And a recent piece in The Japan Times provides the following look at how the “new look” in defense policy might alter Japanese policies.

The Abe administration’s reinterpretation of the war-renouncing Constitution to allow greater use of military force in defending other countries is one of the biggest changes ever to Japan’s postwar security policy.

The administration has given a range of examples as to how the Self-Defense Forces might used when related laws are updated later this year. They include scenarios in which troops might:

Defend U.S. warships.

Troops could protect U.S. warships under attack from a third country near Japanese waters, before an imminent, direct attack on Japan, because cooperation with the U.S. military is considered essential to secure Japan’s own survival.

Intercept ships for inspection.

Troops might forcibly stop vessels for inspection when they are believed to be carrying weapons to a third country that is attacking U.S. warships in the region, when the battle seems likely to spill over to Japan — a step currently considered unconstitutional and prohibited as use of force.

Shoot down a missile fired at the U.S.

The SDF could intercept a ballistic missile that is flying over the Japanese archipelago heading toward Hawaii, the U.S. territory of Guam or the U.S. mainland, and when requested by America to do so.

Protect peacekeepers abroad.

SDF personnel could rescue civilians engaged in U.N.-backed peacekeeping operations that come under attack, using weapons if necessary to defend those civilians.

Minesweeping in the Middle East.

A plan still being contemplated would allow Japanese forces to participate in U.N.-led multinational minesweeping efforts to secure sea lanes in the Middle East, such as in the Strait of Hormuz, arguably crucial lifelines for resource-poor Japan.

Note: For a look at the Japanese rethink on defense see the video below which was released by the Japanese MOD earlier this year, March 14, 2014:

We recently interviewed the head of the Military Sealift Command, Admiral Shannon, who highlighted the shortfall of US amphibious assets and the expanded role for support assets to the highly stretched littoral fleet.

He mentioned specifically that allies can play a key role in providing for re-supply and clearly with the shift in Japanese policy, the Japanese with their excellent at sea capabilities and technologies can do so, if they so choose.

And the re-set also allows Japan to expand its industrial participation in shaping allied defense capabilities as well.

The F-35 is clearly one case, and the first export under the new defense rules will come soon.

According to an AFP story published on July 6, 2014:

Japan is set to approve its first arms export since relaxing a self-imposed ban on the practice, a report said Sunday, as the country seeks to boost its global military and economic stature.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plans to export a high-performance sensor to the United States, where it will be used in the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missile defense system due to be exported to Qatar, the Nikkei business daily said, without providing sources.

Tokyo’s decision — likely to become official later this month — comes after the government in April amended a long-standing ban on arms exports, particularly in cases where the products might be re-exported to countries engaged in conflict.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet eased the rules to allow exports of military products in a move aimed at allowing the country to participate in international weapons-development programs and expand its domestic defense industry.

The government has concluded that the planned transfer of U.S. missile defense technology to Qatar was unlikely to escalate any conflicts, the Nikkei said.

Mitsubishi Heavy produces the PAC-2 sensor for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces under license from U.S. defense giant Raytheon Co., the Nikkei said.

Raytheon, however, is scaling back its production of PAC-2 components to focus on the next-generation PAC-3 missile interceptor system, according to the report.

The sensor is a key component of the infrared seeker set into the tip of the missile to identify and track incoming targets, the report said.

When I went to Australia earlier this year, it is clear that Australia is re-working its defense capabilities as well to play a more significant role in the region.

And the recent visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to Australia has clearly underscored that both countries see their efforts as not parallel but joint.

One key piece of the effort is to share defense technologies, and the two countries have signed an agreement to explore ways to share submarine technologies and in the Australian case, to help shape a way ahead for 21^st century submarine technologies.

According to one Australian newspaper:

AUSTRALIA will be the first country to benefit from Japan’s new “non-pacifist” constitution when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signs a landmark military technology deal with Tony Abbott in Canberra on Tuesday.

The agreement will allow both nations to jointly develop submarine technologies and is the first step in a possible joint project to build Australia’s next-generation submarine.

The trip featured a major presentation by the Japanese Prime Minister to the Australian Parliament where a frank and open speech clearly won support for an expanded Australian economic and defense relationship.

According to Greg Sheridan, the Foreign Editor of the Australian, Abe hit the mark in his speech.

SHINZO Abe spoke to Australia in a way no Japanese leader has done before.

In surely one of the greatest speeches delivered in our parliament, Abe unveiled a new Japan — forthright, friendly, deeply aligned with Australia, now, as Tony Abbott says, a “normal nation”.

For the past 70 years we have got used to the postwar Japan, unlike any Japan that went before, economically tough but in every other way meek and mild.

Now, says Abe in effect, meet the new Japan, the post, postwar Japan.

Abe pitched the relationship at the highest possible level.

He wants his visit to Australia to be the first day of a new “special relationship”.

He wants a Japan-Australia partnership that sees no limits.

Abe made the boldest historic claim for his visit and the free trade agreement he signed with Abbott by saying it was the equivalent of the 1957 trade treaty between Robert Menzies and Abe’s grandfather.

That treaty was pivotal in the emergence of a new and successful Japan after the tragedy, the destruction and the shame of World War II.

Abe is a transformative leader for Japan. He is reviving its economy, or making a mighty effort to do so, and now he is reorienting its national security disposition.

It is absurd to suggest this is a rebirth of Japanese militarism. Instead, as Abbott argues, Japan is moving to a position where it can help its allies as well as receive help from them.

The style of Abe’s speech was as bold and breathtaking as its content. It is only the third major speech he has delivered in English, and it was pitch perfect, significantly ahead of similar efforts from Chinese or even American leaders.

Taking a leaf from the speech-making playbook of Ronald Reagan, Abe left not a dry eye in the house as he singled out in the gallery an Australian firefighter who had bonded profoundly with Japanese colleagues in natural disaster relief.

His riff on Dawn Fraser, also in the audience, hoping that she would come to Japan and bring “a new dawn” was brilliant, playing into Australia’s love of sport and illustrating the big picture through a single human being.

A speech like this doesn’t come about by accident. The Japanese put enormous effort into this.

And as another Australian journalist put it:

Clearly, Australia can benefit from closer defense-technology cooperation with Japan, which Abe’s relaxation of arms exports facilitates.

The UK realized this and signed a defense cooperation agreement with no existential angst about moving closer to war with China.

Likewise, Abe’s more forthright advocacy of adherence to international law when dealing with territorial disputes and Japan’s enhanced support for maritime surveillance capacity-building in Southeast Asia are very much in line with long-standing Australian policy goals that were developed without primary consideration of China.

Friendships, special relationships and skillful diplomacy are built upon the recognition of convergence of interests and beliefs.

This is different to a commonality of interests and beliefs, and such a convergence does not have to imply required future action.

I would hazard that the burgeoning of the China-Australia relationship, despite the huge differences between the two states, is testament to this distinction.

Clearly, there is significant change afoot in Asia; and it is not all about the rise of China and PRC dominance.

The Abe Speech:

July 8, 2014

His Excellency Mr SHINZO ABE (Prime Minister of Japan) (11:12): The Hon. Tony Abbott MP, Prime Minister of Australia; the Hon. Bronwyn Bishop MP, Speaker of the House of Representatives; Senator the Hon. Stephen Parry, President of the Senate; the Hon. Bill Shorten MP, Leader of the Opposition; members and senators; distinguished guests: I would like to respectfully acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which this event is taking place and their elders, past and present.

Ladies and gentlemen, when we Japanese started out again after the Second World War, we thought long and hard over what had happened in the past and came to make a vow for peace with our whole hearts. We Japanese have followed that path until the present day. We will never let the horrors of the past century’s history repeat themselves. This vow that Japan made after the war is still fully alive today. It will never change going forward. There is no question at all about this point. I stand here in the Australian legislative chamber to state this vow to you solemnly and proudly.

Our fathers and grandfathers lived in a time that saw Kokoda and Sandakan. How many young Australians, with bright futures to come, lost their lives? For those who made it through the war, how much trauma did they feel years and years later from these painful memories? I can find absolutely no words to say; I can only stay humble against the evils and horrors of history. May I most humbly speak for Japan and on behalf of the Japanese people here in sending my most sincere condolences towards the many souls who lost their lives.

There is a story from 1968 that pulls at my heartstrings even now. Australia invited a Japanese woman to come here. Her name is Matsue Matsou and she was 83 years old. She accepted Australia’s invitation and, in memory of her son, poured Japanese sake into Sydney bay. Her son was on a small submarine that had sunk in Sydney bay during an attack on Australia. The people of Australia kept his valour in memory for so many years and brought over the brave soldier’s mother from Japan. This is so beautifully open minded.

‘Hostility to Japan must go. It is better to hope than always to remember.’ These are the words of Prime Minister RG Menzies, when he restarted Australia-Japan ties after the war. Again, speaking both for Japan and the Japanese people, I wish to state my great and whole-hearted gratitude for the spirit of tolerance and for the friendship that Australia has shown to Japan. When in Japan, we will never forget your open-minded spirit nor the past history between us.

Prime Minister Menzies was the first to welcome a Japanese prime minister to Australia after the war. That was 57 years ago. We signed a commerce treaty between us, and that propelled us on the road to prosperity, which we still enjoy today. It was my grandfather Nobusuke Kishi who signed it. This was the start of Australian coal, iron ore and natural gas coming into Japan. The second coming of Japan’s industry after the war first became possible through the help of Australia, our indispensable partner.

Just as Prime Minister Menzies and my grandfather did, Prime Minister Tony Abbott and I hope to make a truly new basis for our relations. This afternoon Prime Minister Abbott and I will sign the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement.

Seven years ago, when our task on this EPA began, many asked if we would ever see this day. I think even many members of this honourable body felt the same way. Let us congratulate each other for the many efforts that brought us here today. The next step for us will be the TPP, after that RCEP and then the FTA.

Let us walk forward together, Australia and Japan, with no limits. Yes, we can do it. After all, when Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser and Japan’s Prime Minister Masayoshi said that the creation of a Pacific community was a significant long-term objective, we built the cornerstone for APEC. That was no less than 34 years ago. Visions always come from a longitude of 135 degrees east, do they not? Of course, we are the ones who benefit by making markets that are broad, open and free.

Ladies and gentlemen, opening up Japan’s economy and society is one of the major engines for my growth strategy. I am now working to reform systems and norms that have not changed in many decades. Japan will grow by increasing its productivity while keeping good fiscal discipline. To do that, I will become like a drill bit myself, breaking through the vested interests and the norms that have deep roots. Reforms are now starting in the fields of agriculture, energy policy and medicine. For the first time in decades we have also started to reform old norms in our labour relations. Since the beginning, I have stressed that I want to make Japan a place where women shine. I have also said, time and again, that for non-Japanese with a can-do spirit and ability Japan and Japanese society must be a beacon of hope.

This EPA with Australia will be a great catalyst to spark further changes as we open up Japan’s economy. It will also give us a great push forward as we work towards the TPP. Japan and Australia have deepened our economic ties. We will now join up in a scrum, just like in rugby, to nurture our regional and the world order and to safeguard peace.

Today, I stand in front of you who represent the people of Australia and state solemnly that now Japan and Australia will finally use our relationship of trust, which has stood up through the trials of history, in our cooperation in the area of security. Australia and Japan have now freed ourselves from one old layer and are now moving towards a new special relationship. Prime Minister Abbott and I confirmed that already on 7 April in Tokyo. Today, Prime Minister Abbott and I will sign an agreement concerning the transfer of defence equipment and technology that will make the first cut in engraving the special relationship in our future history.

That is not all. As far as national security goes, Japan has been safe for a long time. Now, Japan has built a determination as a nation that longs for permanent peace in the world and as a country whose economy is among the biggest. Japan is now determined to do more to enhance peace in the region and peace in the world. Ladies and gentlemen, it is to put that determination into concrete action that Japan has chosen to strengthen its ties with Australia. Yes, our countries both love peace.

We value freedom and democracy, and we hold human rights and the rule of law dear. Today is a day that we bring life to our new special relationship. To mark its birthday today, I should have brought a huge cake to share with every one of you!

There are many things Japan and Australia can do together by each of us joining hands with the United States, an ally for both our nations. Japan is now working to change its legal basis for security so that we can act jointly with other countries in as many ways as possible. We want to make Japan a country that will work to build an international order that upholds the rule of law. Our desire is to make Japan a country that is all the more willing to contribute to peace in the region and beyond. It is for this reason that Japan has raised the banner of active contribution to peace. Whatever we decide to do, I will tell you that Japan will continue to work together with our neighbour at the longitude of 135 degrees east. This is why we have made this special relationship.

Let us join together all the more in order to make the vast seas from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, and those skies, open and free. In everything we say and do, we must follow the law and never fall back onto force or coercion. When there are disputes, we must always use peaceful means to find solutions. These are natural rules. I believe strongly that when Japan and Australia, sharing common values, join hands, these natural rules will become the norm for the seas of prosperity, that stretch from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian. Today is the day our special relationship is born.

It is fitting that I conclude my speech with words of gratitude to our dear friends, and with an appeal to our young people. I ask the members of this esteemed body to please look to the gallery, where you will see Mr Robert McNeil of Fire and Rescue New South Wales. Mr McNeil, to you I give my deep appreciation. Minamisanriku, in Japan’s Miyagi prefecture, was one of the towns that suffered the very worst damage from the tsunami that hit our Tohoku region on 11 March 2011. Mr McNeil, leading a team of 76 people and two dogs, immediately came to Minamisanriku. There he worked together with firefighters from Japan. Mr McNeil said:

When the Japanese firefighters were grieving, we were able to share their grief.

There were no walls of communication between us.

We will keep his words in our hearts warmly forever.

Then Prime Minister Julia Gillard stood motionless with her upper lip tight upon seeing the terrible sight of Minamisanriku. I would like to express once more my sincere thanks for the leadership that Prime Minister Gillard showed. Furthermore, this is an excellent example indeed showing that Australia-Japan relations go beyond the fences between political parties.

Andrew Southcott, Michael Danby, Gary Gray and, of course, Andrew Robb are some of many who have advanced exchanges with Japanese Diet members, which will become more and more important. There are many more who have been active in this way, so forgive me for naming only these very few. I wish to thank all those who have made an effort to connect with your fellow law-makers in Japan. I very much hope you will continue those efforts.

Japan and Australia also have ties made through the Japan Exchange and Teaching, JET, program. The New Colombo Plan will certainly give rise to the leaders of the future. Tokyo will become a place where these young Australians come across new chapters in their personal stories. Japan will become a country that will take these young people, visiting from Australia, as important members of society. Japan and Australia will each work to make our youth exchanges stronger, bigger and better. This is an era that has now begun. I ask all honourable members of this body to take back to your home districts the message that Prime Minister Abe said—that young people should head to Japan! I will do the same for you. I will tell the youth of Japan that they should head to Australia.

In 2020 Tokyo will once again host the Olympic and Paralympic Games. As for me, I watched the 1964 Olympics and I was one of the many who were dazzled by the power of Ms Dawn Fraser, who is in the gallery today. Ms Fraser, to me you are Australia! Thank you very much for coming here today.

What spirited athletes will you send to Tokyo in six years? We all look forward to seeing that. Ms Fraser, in 2020 I hope we will see you in good shape in Tokyo once more. I hope very much that you bring forth a new dawn to Japan and a new dawn to the future of Australia-Japan relations. Thank you very much.

The SPEAKER: Mr Prime Minister, on behalf of the House, I thank you for your address and I wish you and Mrs Abe a successful and enjoyable stay in Australia.

Honourable member and senators: Hear, hear!

Members and senators rising and applauding, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Mrs Abe left the chamber.

http://australianpolitics.com/2014/07/08/shinzo-abe-addresses-australian-parliament.html

Recent articles on Japan and Australia and defense issues:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-agreement-to-share-military-technology-will-boost-ties-with-japan/story-fn59niix-1226876241476

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-japan-sign-military-agreement-20100520-vopw.html

http://news.usni.org/2014/07/07/japan-australia-cooperate-new-submarine-design

http://www.news.com.au/national/australiajapan-alliance-old-enemy-lines-up-behind-former-foe/story-fncynjr2-1226980764586

http://www.news.com.au/national/australia-to-sign-new-submarines-deal-with-japan-as-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-visits-tony-abbott-in-canberra/story-fncynjr2-1226980720135

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/defence-pact-to-lead-way-for-joint-submarine-venture/story-e6frg8yo-1226979818220

http://online.wsj.com/articles/australia-seeks-access-to-japanese-submarine-technology-1402474428