The War in Ukraine and its Impact on the Future of Naval Warfare: The USV Dimension

12/22/2022

By George Galdorisi

If one story has dominated the international news for the past ten months, it is Russia’s egregious invasion of Ukraine, a war that shows no sign of abating, and which is the largest conflict in Europe in over three-quarters of a century.

The breathless daily reporting has kept the planet’s inhabitants well-informed about the day-to-day details of this conflict, but it will likely take many years to fully understand and unpack the lessons learned regarding what is occurring and Ukraine.

While there are many stories that have been generated regarding this conflict, as well as some nascent lessons learned, one of the most prominent is how Ukraine has been able to use unmanned surface vehicles to attack Russian ships.

The attack on the Russian Navy in the port of Sevastopol in October of this year brought new attention to the capabilities of these unmanned maritime systems, and will likely spur the development of USVs by many nations and navies.

All that said, it is important to realize that this is not a completely new means of warfare, but one that is centuries-old. A bit of perspective is important.

Fire ships were used in ancient China during the battle of Red Cliffs on the Yangtze River, as well as in the Eastern Roman empire in many battles during the time of Byzantine Empire.

Fire ships were also used during the Crusades, and later in the allied victory over the Turks in the battle of Navarino. These fire ships continued to be used during the age of sail through the Napoleonic Wars. Later, they were used during the Greek War for Independence in the 1820s and 1830s.

In the American experience, fire ships were used during the Civil War when the Confederate Navy used them to attack Union ships on the Mississippi River.

As steel hulls replaced wooden ships, and explosive devices became prominent, fire ships were no longer effective weapons. They were replaced by unmanned surface vehicles carrying explosives.

During World War I and World War II, Germany used explosive remote controlled speedboats to protect their coast. One of the most prominent of these was the FL7 electronically controlled motorboat. This unmanned boat carried 300 pounds of explosives, and was designed to be rammed into any British ship that came near the German coast.

Originally they were controlled by a driver who sat atop of 50 foot tower on shore, steering them through a 50 mile long cable that spooled out of the back of the boat. Subsequently, the Germans shifted the operator from a tower onto a seaplane that would fly overhead dragging the wire. Both methods proved unwieldy, but with the invention of wireless radio control, the Germans found that these boats became more effective

What does this have to do with warfare today?

Actually a great deal.

The aforementioned attack on the Russian Navy in Sevastopol ushered in a new era of drone warfare. Unmanned maritime vehicles have been evolving rapidly over the past decade, and now they have gone to war.

In an era where naval vessels are increasingly expensive, attacking these ships with cheap, expendable, explosive-laden USVs is the ultimate form of asymmetric warfare.  For example, a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke destroyer costs over $2 billion, and the U.S. Navy‘s new DDG(X) ship is projected to cost over $3 billion. The efficacy of using unmanned surface vehicles to attack naval vessels is clear.

However, what is lost in this aspirational use of unmanned surface vehicles to attack naval vessels is precisely how the USV will actually hit a highly maneuverable naval vessel.

Operating these USVs completely autonomously is likely not a viable tactic, since where a naval vessel is located at one moment will bear little resemblance to where it will be hours or even minutes later.

One tactic that is gaining purchase stems from a concept first articulated in the Department of Defense’s Third Offset Strategy.

The technical aspect of this concept of operations (CONOPS) is centered around a concept called man-machine teaming, and is one that most defense analysts suggest represents the most effective means of prevailing in the future battlespace.

Briefly, here is how this CONOPS would work.

This tactic would combine modern U.S. Navy helicopters, such as the Seahawk and Nighthawk, with small and medium agile unmanned surface vessels such as the MARTAC Devil Ray T24 (24ft) and T38 (38ft) unmanned surface vessels.

While there are many unmanned surface vessels that the U.S. Navy is either considering or developing, what these USVs bring to the table is a high cruise speed, an extremely high burst speed of 60-80 knots, and the ability to operate beyond human capability, making high speed, high-G turns that enable them to outmaneuver, or intercept, even the most modern and agile naval vessels.

This CONOPS leverages the best aspects of what humans and machines can do together. Imagine a U.S. surface combatant that discovers an adversary surface ship in a hot-war situation. Clearly, the goal is to “out stick” the enemy and disable or destroy that ship before the U.S. Navy ship takes a hit. High performance in both speed and maneuverability will be the key component.

This CONOPS builds on what has been the essence of naval warfare for centuries. It means giving one ship the ability stand-off from an adversary vessel and out of range from its weapons, while delivering ordnance that can achieve a mission kill, or even sink the adversary ship. How might the U.S. Navy ship most effectively engage the enemy?

One standoff tactic would be to send a helo armed with hellfire missile to strike the enemy ship. However, with a range of, at best, seven nautical miles for the hellfire missile, that puts a $37M SH-60R/S Seahawk/Knighthawk helicopter and its crew well within the range of adversary anti-air systems. Clearly, this is not a viable tactic.

What if, instead, the U.S. Navy surface combatant carried a number of Devil Ray USVs armed with on-contact explosives and launched them toward to adversary ship. That would be a good start, but if the adversary ship was over the horizon, these USVs would not get to their intended target.

This is where the Seahawk/Knighthawk comes in and accomplishes the essence of manned-machine teaming envisioned in the Third Offset Strategy. The aircraft could launch, and while staying well-outside enemy anti-air platforms, use a simple tablet to steer one, or ideally more, Devil Ray USVs toward the adversary ship until impact. This “swarm” tactic has been modeled by various organizations such as the Naval Postgraduate School and Naval War College and has proven to have deadly effectiveness.

This is where many defense experts see manned-machine teaming going in the future.

Now it is time to go beyond modeling and simulation and try out this CONOPS with helicopters and USVs.

The U.S. Navy is planning an ambitious series of exercises, experiments and demonstrations in 2023 and beyond, and this way of tipping the balance in the favor of U.S. Navy forces is one that ought to be explored as a priority.

Featured Photo:  Devil Ray operating at high speed and preparing for high G turn. Credit: MARTAC

Digital Horizon Wraps Up: Task Force 59 Perspective

According to a story written by NAVCENT Public Affairs and published on December 15, 2022:

U.S. 5th Fleet concluded Digital Horizon, Dec. 15, a three-week unmanned and artificial intelligence event in Bahrain that involved 17 industry partners.

The event included 15 advanced systems, 10 of which operated in the Middle East for the first time. Task Force 59 led industry partners during phased evolutions ashore and at sea to advance fleet efforts that will enhance regional maritime awareness.

“The pace of innovation throughout Digital Horizon was unbelievable,” said Capt. Michael Brasseur, commander of Task Force 59. “We pushed beyond technological boundaries and discovered new capabilities for maritime domain awareness to enhance our ability to see above, on and below the water.”

During Digital Horizon, Task Force 59 leveraged artificial intelligence to create an interface on one screen, also called a “single pane of glass.” The screen displayed relevant data from multiple unmanned systems for watchstanders in Task Force 59’s Robotics Operations Center.

The task force also launched an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) from USCGC Emlen Tunnell (WPC 1145), marking the first time Task Force 59 operated a UAV from a U.S. Coast Guard cutter. The launch also enhanced Task Force 59’s ability to create a mesh network for unmanned systems to relay imagery to command centers ashore and at sea in a communications denied environment.

“It has been an incredible opportunity to work with new systems and new partners to drive the innovation process forward for the U.S. Navy,” said Lt. Jay Faylo, the task force’s director of artificial intelligence.

Over the past year, Task Force 59 has operated unmanned surface vessels in regional waters for more than 25,000 hours, which equates to 12 years of nine-to-five testing five days a week.

NAVCENT is headquartered in Manama, Bahrain and includes maritime forces operating in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, parts of the Indian Ocean and three critical choke points at the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandeb.

The featured photo shows the Devil Ray USV in the exercise: Credit: MARTAC

European Fighter Decisions: FCAS Next Steps, December 2022

12/20/2022

By Pierre Tran

Paris – The French arms procurement office has signed a contract worth €3.2 billion ($3.4 billion) for work on the technology demonstrator phase 1B of the European future combat air system with Airbus, Dassault Aviation, the Eumet engine joint venture, and Indra, the companies said Dec. 16 in a joint statement.

France, Germany and Spain back the FCAS, with its new generation fighter (NGF) at the heart of the high-tech project, seen as a symbol of European autonomy and sovereignty at a time of rising conflict around the world.

“On behalf of the governments of France, Germany and Spain, the French General Directorate for Armament (DGA) has awarded to Dassault Aviation, Airbus, Indra, Eumet and their industrial partners the contract for the Demonstrator Phase 1B of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS),” the companies said.

“This landmark contract, amounting to €3.2 billion, will cover work on the FCAS demonstrator and its components for about three and a half years,” the joint statement said.

Eumet is a Franco-German joint venture formed by Safran Aircraft Engines and MTU Aero Engines.

The first tranche of the contract was worth “more than €3 billion,” with the total amount of the contract rising to almost €8 billion with the Phase 2 option, the French armed forces ministry said in a Dec. 15 statement.

The new fighter would replace the Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon for the partner nations in 2040.

Phase 2 is due to last a further three years, bringing the FCAS to first flight tests in 2029, Indra, the Spanish industrial partner, said in a statement.

That pushes back the maiden flight of a demonstrator fighter jet by around two years, due to tough industrial negotiations which delayed the contract.

The three partner nations planned to celebrate the launch of the project with a ceremony in Madrid, the French defense ministry said, without giving further details.

Indra will receive more than €600 million in funding from Phase 1B, the company said, helping its technological development of the combat cloud, a large command and communications network underpinning the FCAS.

The combat cloud will link up the new fighter jet with the remote carrier drones, as well as other assets in the air, at sea, on land, and in space, allowing the services to benefit from “collaborative combat,” the French ministry said.

The key partners Airbus Defence and Space and Dassault reached an industrial agreement on the latter’s leading role as prime contractor, allowing the contract finally to be signed.

The industrial agreement had been reached, Dassault executive chairman Eric Trappier said Dec. 1 in Le Figaro, a French daily owned by the Dassault family.

“We have won all the guarantees to open a new phase, which I would like to point out, is an upstream study and not yet a program,” he said.

“We are confirmed in our role as prime contractor and architect for the aircraft and we have obtained protection of our industrial know-how and our technology,” he said.

That meant intellectual property rights would be shared on work conducted in common by the industrial partners, but technology owned by Dassault would remain outside that pool of information.

Airbus DS had long sought to gain access to that privileged technical information, as that gave the insights of “know-why” to the know-how.

News of the European FCAS contract follows the Dec. 9 announcement of Japan joining the U.K. and Italy to build a new fighter jet under the global combat air programme (GCAP), bringing together technology from the U.K.-led Tempest and Japanese F-X projects.

BAE Systems will work with the Japanese prime contractor Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Italian partner Leonardo, opening up an unprecedented European-Japanese cooperation in building an advanced fighter jet.

It remains to be seen whether Sweden and Saab will join the project pursued by London, Rome and Tokyo. Sweden appears to have cooled off from a previous willingness to team up with the Tempest project.

Also on the fighter news front, Germany won Dec. 14 approval from the powerful parliamentary budget committee to spend €10 billion as part of an announced plan to buy 35 F-35 fighters, to replace the German Tornado fleet, which carries U.S.-built B61 nuclear bombs for Nato.

There is a line of German high-level political thought which calls for a strong link with France by cooperating through the FCAS project, to avoid a dependence on U.S.  support. Berlin’s pursuit of European autonomy stems from perceived political instability of the Trump administration, and uncertainty stemming from the U.S. presidential election in a couple of years.

But there appears to be a distinct chill in relations between French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz, and it remains to be seen how hard the two heads of state will pursue European sovereignty in the military field.

On the domestic front, Macron is under pressure on his planned reform of French pensions, while Scholz has pledged to boost military spending after years of austerity, but a deep bureaucracy appears to have slowed the execution of orders for modern kit.

For Paris, the demonstrator contract was seen as making clear the project would be led by a French company, namely Dassault, which stoutly refused to share a leadership sought with determination by Airbus DS, based in Germany.

“This agreement, which equally confirms the central role of Dassault Aviation in this project, will allow the preparation of the FCAS demonstrator as part of phase 1B, which precedes the development and production phases,” the French defense ministry said in a statement.

On the industrial front, it remains to be seen how Airbus and Dassault will work together, as the company cultures are highly different. The demonstrator is just the beginning, as Trappier pointed out.

FCAS is estimated to be worth €80 billion-€100 billion, if the program gets off the ground.

Photo Credits: Featured Photo in sequence: FCAS: https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=2048

Tempest: https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/will-japan-and-the-uk-collaborate-on-sixth-generation-tempest-future-fighter-aircraft/

Luftwaffe F-35: https://www.flyingmag.com/germany-set-to-buy-35-f-35-fighters/

 

 

 

Visit to USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) by Japanese Prime Minister

12/14/2022

Pacific Ocean – Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), while Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5 units concluded their participation in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force International Fleet Review (IFR) in Yokosuka and Sagami Wan, Nov. 6, 2022.

11.06.2022

Video by Petty Officer 2nd Class Keyly Santizo

USS RONALD REAGAN (CVN 76)

Expeditionary Hospitalization Exercise

U.S. Navy Sailors with Expeditionary Medical Facility Alpha, Navy Medicine Readiness and Training Command, simulate casualty care during exercise Keen Sword 23 on Camp Foster, Okinawa, Japan, Nov. 17, 2022.

During Keen Sword 23, Naval Medical Forces Pacific exercised the inaugural employment of expeditionary hospitalization on the first island chain with bilateral engagement from the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.

(U.S. Marine Corps video by Lance Cpl. Stephen Holland II).

CAMP COURTNEY, OKINAWA, JAPAN

11.17.2022

Video by Lance Cpl. Stephen Holland III Marine Expeditionary Force

Beyond Next Steps in the War in Ukraine: Strategic Upheaval and U.S. Interests

By Robbin Laird

When it comes to crisis management and war termination, the United States faces a fundamental challenge: what are our strategic objectives and how do we achieve them in a world where so much is changing?

I recently discussed this challenge with my colleague Dr. Paul Bracken of Yale in terms of the Ukrainian war. The President of Ukraine has clear objectives, namely, the complete recovery of Ukrainian territory including Crimea and expects the United States and the Western allies to bankroll it and presumably accept Ukraine into the EU and NATO.

But is the United States and Europe willing to support whatever the risks are entailed in Ukraine’s strategy? With Russian leadership and Ukrainian leadership driving the strategic change which will shape the next European order, what is the interest of the United States in what the next major change in the European order exactly?

According to Bracken, this kind of question is not likely to be asked with a policy horizon of one  week.  He noted that “when in a crisis, policy makers tend to stretch out the decisions and take small steps. They don’t consider the strategic options of the path being generated by these small incremental moves.”

He noted with regard to Vietnam: “President Johnson crafted a masterful manipulation of force in Vietnam and of politics at home until he was trapped by his own policies and rhetoric into a strategy which would fail.”

He described this “going to work and carrying forward last week’s efforts into the future.” Why did the Vietnam War or Afghan War go too long? “Because nobody in Washington could figure out a way to do it differently. Policy makers came into work every morning and did what they did the day before. Even though the policy was not working, except in a sort of one week by one week basis, until the whole effort collapsed.”  That’s Saigon’s collapse in 1975 and Kabul’s in 2021.

With regard to the war in Ukraine, the Biden Administration is moving incrementally, and the questions considered beyond bankrolling the arms to Ukraine are which weapons to give them.  The question becomes as Bracken puts it: “what kind of artillery to give to the Ukrainians? What is the cutoff line and range of missiles?”

Then there is the question of allies and what exactly the relationship between what specific allies are doing and what might be the long-term objectives for the United States. Bracken noted: “your allies give you almost as many problems as the enemy. This was certainly true in the Korean War and the Vietnam War to mention two cases.”

This is particularly true when European states face a future of rebuilding Ukraine and ensuring that they can defend themselves with declining weapons inventories, face the prospect of WMD being used, facing energy challenges which are made doubly difficult by the escape from geopolitical realities of energy policy, and with an EU in fundamental transition determining whether they really want a state like Ukraine in the European Union.

European states are all over the policy map on these issues, and no amount of assertion by the White House that they are leading Western unity on the war or a future policy towards Russia removes this reality of divergence with allies.

The war is part of a significant strategic shift. As Bracken put it:  ”The world is moving to its more normal form, which is multipolarity. And we, the United States don’t like that. Because we’re used to being in a bipolar or unipolar system – with us in charge. What we’re actually fighting is structural change in world politics which is a far more demanding objectives that we don’t think about or talk about.”

Without the United States, Ukraine cannot fight this war. What happens next is not simply up to the Presidents of Ukraine or Russia. And certainly, a policy process which focuses on a short-term weekly perspective will not provide a strategic perspective for shaping the next European order or the global policy of dealing with the coalition of authoritarian powers.

There is a very large question posed by nuclear weapons in all of this. Russian territory will operate as a sanctuary which the West has little interest in compressively attacking for fear of triggering WMD use in Ukraine, with chemical weapons being the low hanging fruit here. If we go to the Pacific and note that the Chinese use their territory to launch their force out into the first and second island chains, how willing is one to attack their territory in light of their nuclear build up?

The war in Ukraine is about the dynamics of global change and neither the objectives of Zelenskyy nor Putin answer the question of the American interest. This requires a longer view to inform current policy options and choices.

11th MEU and Maritime Autonomous Systems Ops

12/13/2022

While we await the wrap up of Digital Horizons exercise going on currently with Task Force 59, if we look back to last year we can highlight the 11th MEU working with the MANTAS T12 maritime autonomous system.

Marines assigned to the All Domain Reconnaissance Detachment, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), are seen in these photos working with the MANTAS T12 unmanned surface vessel after training with Task Force 59 at Naval Support Activity Bahrain, Oct. 28, 2021.