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During my visit to Helsinki during the week of February 11, 2018, I had the chance to sit down with Matti Pesu, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
In a paper published late last year entitled “What non-alignment? Finland’s security and defence policy stems from partnerships,” he highlighted the focus of Finnish policy as follows:
Defence cooperation has become the most important driver of Finnish external affairs.
New initiatives are being launched, and ever-more extensive cooperation is binding Finland to the Western security system and its deliberations. At the same time, the waning of Finnish military non-alignment has further accelerated.
Finland has consistently removed the legal impediments that have restricted its room for manoeuvre in security and defence.
The paradigm of Finnish NATO cooperation has changed.
The centre of gravity of the partnership has shifted towards supporting Finnish national defence on the one hand and NATO’s collective defence on the other.
When it comes to the EU, Finland is much more willing to see the Union as a security and defence community.
The bilateral defence partnership web has also expanded, with the stated purpose of intensifying these partnerships being to improve the chances of receiving crisis-time political or military assistance.
It is telling that Finland and Sweden are currently rehearsing territorial defence together.
Finnish defence cooperation with the United States is ground-breaking.
Helsinki has moved closer to Washington both politically and militarily.
Conducting exercises with the military superpower sends a strong strategic signal. Both nations have a mutual interest in Europe in general and in the Baltic Sea region in particular.
With significant change in the Finnish strategic environment, with Putin military activism, the election of Donald Trump and the formation of a new US defense strategy, with turbulence in the European Union, with the coming of Brexit and enhanced regional collaboration among the Nordic states in defense and security cooperation, Finland is defining its course.
It is clear from discussions in Helsinki with the government that a national defense focus is becoming broadened toward perimeter and regional defense.
It is similar in some ways to how the Japanese are now thinking in terms of perimeter defense, rather than a narrow concept of national defense.
And in so doing, the Finns are continuing their strong national commitment to national defense but doing so in terms of working with key partners and allies both to contribute to and to benefit from partner relationships for defense and security in the Nordic region.
According to Pesu, “We never had a post-Cold War defense holiday.
“We continued to be focused on national defense while our European allies rebuilt their forces for out of area operations.
“We continued conscription, training a territorial Army, and focused on the continuing need and reality for a national defense structure.
“When the Crimean crisis came along, we did not have to do a 360 degree turn away from out of area forces to rebuilding national defense forces.
“We face a modernization challenge, but we have built a clear foundation for national defense.”
Defence Minister Jussi Niinistö says his ministry has begun laying the groundwork for Finland to host large-scale joint military exercises in Finnish territory. The war games would resemble the Aurora exercises held this autumn in Sweden, and would involve Finland, Sweden and the US defence forces at a minimum. October 27, 2017
What is the advantage of conscription from the Finnish point of view?
Pesu: “As the current President of Finland puts it, we underscore the public will to serve and will to defend the nation.
“Finland is unique in Europe in terms of the very high level of public commitment to defend the national territory.
“The vast majority of the male population has been through the conscript process and understands the military and support it as a trusted organization.
“The commitment to defense is ingrained among the Finnish population.
“And in the Nordic region, conscription is returning elsewhere as well as the defense of the nation and the region becomes a priority.”
Question: Obviously, Russia is the threat and the challenge.
How have Finnish officials responded to the return of Russia to the military stage?
Pesu: Finland has a long border with Russia and Russia is a big and powerful country and we have a long common border and involvement in the Arctic.
“Generally, Finland has been accommodative and realistic with regard to Russia and its interests.
“But recent actions by Russia have led Finnish officials to be quite critical of Russian behavior and has led to enhanced activity to defend Finland and to build out regional responses and bilateral relations in the defense of Finland and the region.
“We have made a number of changes to our laws and regulations which enable us to expand working relationships with partners and allies.
“Last year, we changed the law so that Finland can both contribute to and benefit from both giving and receiving military assistance.
“Finland is now committed to working with partners on an expanded basis.
“We are enhancing bilateral relationships where key states want to and can contribute to defense of the region.
“For example, we are ramping up our cooperation with the UK and the UK has had historically a long relationship in the region.
“History has returned with new evolving UK perspectives post-Brexit.
“Sweden is the most important partner for Finland. We have complimentary military capabilities and shared interests.
“The United States is now the second most important partner of Finland.
“The US concern with the Baltics, the Russians and the Baltic Sea is a key point of convergence with Finland.
“The Finns have been realistic about the coming of Donald Trump to the White House and have not reacted as have some “moralistic” European states; and indeed, the Finnish President was welcomed at the White House last year and this was widely appreciated in Finland.
How do you see the way ahead?
Pesu: We are clearly shaping a regional approach with enhancements from key bilateral partners like Sweden, the US and the UK.
“And we are expanding both our role in and the perceived significance of regional exercises to shape better defense operational capabilities.
“And as we add new naval and air systems, they will build on this evolving structure shaped through exercises and concrete agreements.
“It is about creating real deterrent capabilities, not simply upon verbal or paper commitments.
“And we are focused on significant improvement in the readiness of forces to be able to respond quickly and effectively in a crisis, and we see crisis management as evolving significantly.
“We are not looking at long time spans; we need to be able to respond quickly and effectively when a crisis comes. Reworking crisis management of significant concern throughout the Nordic region, and Finland sees this as an important effort.”
02/15/18: About half of the entire sortie count tallied by the Afghan Air Force in 2016 came on the wings of 24 nondescript, single-engine Cessnas that are constantly taking off and landing on airstrips across the country.
The Cessna 208, a resilient and easy to maintain light airlifter, has “turned out to be an amazing airplane” for the Afghan Air Force.
The aircraft has accounted for 6,207 out of 13,741 total sorties flown by the entire AAF in 2016, said Col. Lendy Renegar, chief of staff for the 438th Air Expeditionary Wing and the USAF Train, Advise, Assist Command–Air in Kabul.
The aircraft, called the Caravan in civilian use, carried 28,257 passengers and evacuated 2,301 casualties in 2016.
That year, the Afghan Air Force flew more sorties than 2014 and 2015 combined, with 2017 already shaping up to be busier as the fighting season kicks off, Renegar said.
USAF advisers, based at FOB Oqab, attached to the Afghan Air Force at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, work with line pilots up to the Ministry of Defense on air operations, including ensuring the C-208 fleet can carry the load needed in the fight against the Taliban.
The USAF squadron flies alongside Afghan C-208 aircrew on training flights, with the overall goal to let the Afghan crews execute the missions without any American help, said USAF Maj. Randy Stubbs, the chief of C-208 operations for the 538th Air Expeditionary Advisory Squadron.
“They are pretty good at what they do for the most part, and we’re here to sharpen their edge,” Stubbs said.
“They are professional, good people. It’s really good flying with them.” The aircraft can carry up to 3,000 pounds of cargo, and up to 12 soldiers, making it important to help resupply Afghan National Army corps across the country.
It is their “tactical airlifter,” akin to how the USAF uses its C-130 fleet, said Renegar. “It’s a pretty good fleet for what we have here,” he added.
Earlier General Milley followed a readiness unit’s live fire exercise at the Karelia Brigade.
The visit is hosted by Commander of the Finnish Army, Major General Petri Hulkko.
And earlier in an article published on February 2, 2018, the Finnish MoD website announced a recent acquisition agreement involving the Finnish ground forces:
The Finnish Defence Forces’ Logistics Command received a mandate, on 29.1.2018, from Defence Minister Jussi Niinistö to conclude a contract with the United States government to procure training munitions.
Minister Niinistö met with Commander of the United States Army, General Mark A. Milley.
The contract comprises the procurement of practice rockets and a related package of technical information.
The munitions are manufactured by Lockheed Martin in the United States.
The Low Cost Reduced Range Practice Rocket (LCRRPR) is a practice rocket fired with a MLRS launcher.
The practice rockets are in a Rocket Pod Containers (RPC) that is standardised to be used on a heavy rocket launcher (MLRS and HIMARS).
The procurement that ensures continued training and appropriate exercises is a joint procurement with the United States from where Finland procures certified munitions in production.
The manufacturer of LCRRPR munitions and the heavy rocket launcher is the same, Lockheed Martin in the United States.
The procurement is a part of the overall development of the joint battle system in the Finnish Defence Forces, with the overall value of about EUR 6.2 million. The exercise munitions will be delivered in 2019.
When one sees a visit like this one, it can be overlooked that as the US services look to transform the joint force going forward they have a lot in common with partner and allied forces seeking to do the same in support of their own national interests and strategy.
In the Finnish Defence Report published last year, the Finns have put the challenge facing the US, partners and allies very clearly: “the early warning period for military crises has shortened and the threshold for using force has become lower.”
The US Army Chief of Staff certainly gets that and his tasking to the Army and its transformation is to do a better job in operating in such a strategic environment.
When we interviewed BG McIntire, the key advisor to the COS of the Army on ADA, this is what he had to say about the Chief’s priorities:
BG McIntire: “The Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army has highlighted a number of key priorities for Army modernization.
“The first priority is to fix long-range strike.
“Second, we need the next generation combat vehicle and one which enables the offensive-defensive approach to Large Scale Combat Operations.
“Third, we need a new vertical lift capability. We need a much higher speed helicopter capability and one that can operate effectively in the 21st century multi-domain maneuver space.
“Fourth, we need to have a better open architecture network. We need to work on our C2 and we need a transformation of our mission command system.
“But without effective defense in the maneuver force, you’re not going to be able to survive. Air Defense is a key enabler for the maneuver force.
“Survivability of the maneuver force requires an organic air missile defense as well as extended defense for the integrated battlefield.
“It is not an afterthought; it is a core requirement of mission success.”
BG McInture emphasized that integrated fires are the key to breaking up adversary efforts to shape anti-access and area denial of operational areas.
It is clear that Finns also get this, as their Finnish defense document discusses the importance of enhanced defense which has the capability to defend against longer range strike and to also have their own longer range strike capability.
In other words, cross-learning is both necessary and inevitable.
It is about the US, partners and allies working together to enhance deterrence.
As the Finnish report on defense puts it clearly: “Deterrence relies on the kind of readiness and capability to repel attacks which is appropriately tailor to its operating environment…Finland will create the ability to provide and receive military assistance….This calls for collaboration in planning, shared situation awareness, compatible C2 and surveillance systems as well as training and exercise cooperation and interoperability.”
The Queen visited RAF Marham in early February to open officially the F-35 facility at the base.
According to an ITV report dated February 2, 2018:
The Queen has taken a tour of RAF Marham in Norfolk to see how it is preparing for the arrival of its new fighter jets.
Children from nearby schools lined the roads leading to the camp gates, waving flags as her car arrived at the base.
AF Marham, which has been the home of the Tornado GR4 Force, will welcome the F-35 Lightning Force next summer.
While there, the Queen officially opened the new Lightning Operations Centre.
It is the first building completed as part of a development scheme building the infrastructure needed to support the new jets.
The Minister of Defence commented:
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The Royal opening of this operations hub for the F-35 brings us another step closer to these pioneering jets flying from their UK home later this year, and their take-off from the magnificent aircraft carrier which proudly bears Her Majesty’s name.
“I’m delighted The Queen has seen what the future holds for the Royal Air Force, particularly as we celebrate a rich 100-year history of brave men and women protecting our skies.”
The Queen commenced her visit at the new Lightning Operations Centre where Her Majesty met with personnel from all across the Station.
The Lightning Operations Centre is the first building to have been completed as part of Project Anvil, the project which is delivering all the new infrastructure to support the F35B Lightning aircraft that will arrive in the summer of 2018.
The Lightning Operations Centre will be the Headquarters of the Lightning Force and provide through-life airworthiness management and a global to national interface in support of the UK F35 Lightning Force.
Her Majesty was also introduced to representatives from the Lightning Delivery Team who were responsible for the delivery of the building along with Lockheed Martin and BAe Systems, the main contractors overseeing this project site. Also present were local firm Balfour Beatty who constructed this state of the art facility.
After meeting everyone The Queen was invited to officially open the Lightning Operations Centre with the unveilling of a plaque that had been commissioned by Lockheed Martin.
Her Majesty was then taken to the Warrant Officers’ and Sergeants’ Mess where she met with Senior Non-Commissioned Officers and Junior Ranks and spoke to them about their various roles at RAF Marham before moving off to the Officers Mess for lunch.
Before lunch The Queen met with personnel from the RAF100 committee who showed Her Majesty some of the activities that were being planned by RAF Marham to commemorate this milestone in the Royal Air Force’s history.
At the end of the lunch Her Majesty was invited to present the Firmin Sword of Peace to the Station Commander, Group Captain Townsend who accepted it on behalf of the Station.
The Firmin Sword of Peace is awarded to the unit or establishment that is judged to have made the most valuable contribution to humanitarian activities by establishing good and friendly relations with the inhabitants of any community at home or overseas during that year.
RAF Marham were proud to receive this award in recognition of the many activities that it had conducted throughout 2016, their centenary year and its support to the local community whilst continuing with operations in Syria and Iraq.
During this time the station was also dealing with the disruption of infrastructure works at the base in preparation for arrival of the new F35 Lightning aircraft as well as supporting major county and charitable events including initiatives to support the local communities.
Group Captain Townsend said
“It was wonderful to welcome Her Majesty to RAF Marham today and we are honoured that this was her first Royal Air Force engagement in the RAF’s centenary year.”
Second Line of Defense visited Marham last year and we hope to return this year and here is what was concluded from last year’s visit:
2017-04-13 By Robbin Laird
During my visit to the United Kingdom in March 2017, I had a chance to visit RAF Marham.
My host for the visit was Captain Nick Walker of the Royal Navy and we had the opportunity to view the various buildings in progress on the base as well as to receive a briefing from Commander John Butcher, the Chief of Staff at the Lightning Force Headquarters, and the commander of the first F-35B squadron to operate in the United Kingdom, which arrives next year.
Captain Nick Walker, Royal Navy, presenting at the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Sea Integration, Canberra, August 10, 2016
I also received a briefing and had a chance to discuss the standup of the infrastructure with the impressive team supporting the establishment of the F-35B at Marham.
There is a staff of 17 at the Lightning Force headquarters supporting the operational standup with nine specifically focused on the infrastructure aspects.
They are busy simply in order to have the base ready next year to receive their first contingent of F-35Bs from their current base, which is in the United States.
The base will have a fully operational, training and support capability.
Training, maintenance and various centers are being stood up.
At the heart of the effort will be the National Operations Center in which logistics and operations are collocated and the U.S. will have personnel in this center as well.
According to Wing Commander Butcher: “Within the National Operating Center, you essentially have two main functions. There’s what we’re calling the Logistics Operating Center, and the Lightning Force Headquarters.
The 21st Century Dambusters Squadron. Credit: Daily Express
“The two of those together create the National Operating Center. Within the Logistics Operating Center, or the LOC, you have some very key elements of the Lightning project team that are currently based out of Abbeywood.
“The people who are doing the engineering supervision, the acquisition of the facilities, acquisition of the parts, the management of the supply chain, many of these will move to Marham and will sit alongside key industry partners.
“We have as well the Lightning Force Headquarters built within that same facility. Now if you plug in the USAF into that as well, which is our plan right now, then you have a very joint UK F-35 outlook with regard to the entire enterprise.”
There are multiple synergies involved with the F-35 and the standup of the Marham Air Base.
The first is the synergy from America to the United Kingdom and back again.
The UK has operators at Pax River, Edwards, Eglin and Beaufort Marine Corps Air Station.
17 Squadron at Edwards is a Test and Evaluation squadron and because the F-35 is a software upgradeable aircraft, tests will be a fact of life as the capabilities of the aircraft evolve over time, and the Brits are well placed at Edwards to be participants in this process. It should also be noted that the Dutch are on the ground floor with the Brits in this process as well as the Aussies.
The UK and the USMC are fully pooled at Beaufort with Marines flying British planes and vice versa. While there the Brits use the US Navy logistics system to support the F-35B whereas at Edwards they use the British system, so are learning how to work within both systems.
The Eglin engagement with the Canadians and Australians involved is with the reprogramming lab. “In effect, this is the apps center for the evolution of the software,” according to Commander Butcher.
According to Wing Commander Bucher, the build up at Beaufort will continue until mid-2018 when personnel will gradually transfer to Edwards or other facilities in the United States or come back to the UK.
“We will peak out at about 200 persons at Beaufort. We will bring 9 of our jets back next summer and five more later in the year.”
All of these bases are key elements in the UK element of the F-35 global enterprise.
The planes coming from Beaufort will provide the standup for the first RAF squadron. 617 squadron will be stood up next year as the Brits move from Beaufort to Marham.
The second synergy is between the standup among bases and lessons learned.
Marham is being stood up and generating operational lessons learned back to the United States, both in terms of the U.S.’s standup of its own bases abroad and at home, and, notably in terms of shaping a new operational dynamic for RAF Lakenheath.
The USAF F-35s at Lakenheath can become integrated into the operational, training and support elements in the UK as well, shaping a new approach for the USAF as well.
As Wing Commander Butcher underscored the possibilities:
“We want to take forwards everything that we’ve done in the pooling and implementation agreement in the United States, and try and see how we can transpose that into a UK model.
The Dambusters Squadron, 1943.
“We’re looking to have jets taking off, F-35A’s taking off at Lakenheath. Well, what if they have an issue and they need to land in Marham. Rather than take the time to move people, spares etc from Lakenheath up to here, what’s to say that we couldn’t conceptually have some maintainers from 617 Squadron repair the jet, sign off, send it flying again.
“Lakenheath is going to be busy base with the closure of Mildenhall. Increased efficiencies working with us would make sense.
“Could we potentially have F-35As operating out of Marham on a daily basis?
“How do we organize hot pit operations on each other’s base?
“One can easily see how that could buy you a lot of combat flexibility, in terms of how you might do maintenance operations.”
The Dambusters Squadron, 2017. Credit: Daily Express
Commander Butcher noted that in the working group with Lakenheath, a 06-level maintainer is embedded in the UK Lightning Force Headquarters.
“He’s come in to do the interim scoping for how we might integrate the USAF into the Lightning Force headquarters facility, in particular the National Operating Center.”
Embedded in this synergy is a close working relationship with the USMC as well which can be seen at Beaufort or on the LHAs preparing for F-35B operations.
There is also a close working relationship between the new carrier community in the UK and with the US Navy as many UK officers have trained and operated aboard US carriers learning the US approach to the use of carriers, and shaping their thinking as well with regard to shaping their own approach to carrier operations with the F-35B.
The third synergy is between the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force.
The UK is standing up a Lightning Force, not a RAF or Royal Navy force. The first two squadrons are being established on a 58/42 basis between RAF and RN pilots.
The first squadron, which will start the move from Beaufort in mid-2018 with full IOC by the end of 2018, will be badged as an RAF squadron and headed by an RAF officer (Wing Commander Butcher) who will be then relieved when the time comes by a RN officer.
And for the next two years, the squadron will work on integration with the Queen Elizabeth class carriers.
Credit: Aircraft Carrier Alliance – Queen Elizabeth Class at sea (CGI)
According to Wing Commander Butcher: “We are focused on the defense product, not the service one when it comes to the Lightning Force. It is important to do our business as a Lightning Force.”
The second front line F35B squadron, 809 Squadron, will establish at Marham and badged as a Royal Navy squadron with a RN officer in charge who could then relieved when the time comes by an RAF officer.
The fourth synergy is building the base while the three Tornado squadrons are operationally involved and on a busy schedule supporting RAF operations worldwide, notably in the Middle East.
This means that Tornado infrastructure not only needs to be maintained but not leveraged in any way until those squadrons leave Marham.
This means that the next Marham base Commander Group Captain Townsend will be charged with standing up the base for F-35Bs, the squadron arriving in two parts, and keeping the key strike function of Tornado operational until the very end.
It can be disruptive but the ops tempo of the base is the key determinant of the effort; not simply erecting new buildings for a new aircraft.
The fifth synergy is between the base and the new Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers.
The new carriers are coming on line concurrently with the base becoming operational and sea trials and preparing for the integration of the F-35 with the new carriers.
And this base will provide a key element of shaping the outreach from the UK into Northern Europe as well as Norway, Denmark and the Dutch Air Forces come on line with their F-35s as well.
From Presentation by Captain Walker, Royal Navy, at the Williams Foundation seminar on Air-Sea Integration, August 2016
In other words, standing up the base at Marham is part of a significant strategic effort by the UK and at the heart of shaping 21t century approaches to deterrence.
When joined with what is happening from Lossie, to Iceland to Norway with P-8s, the upgrades to Typhoon, which will make it a core complement to the F-35B fleet and the reshaping of the ISTAR fleet at RAF Waddington, major changes are coming to the UK air and naval forces.
The rebuilding program itself is extensive.
Virtually all of the runways need to be repaved. And the modifications of the hangers would be so significant for the F-35, that it was preferable to tear down buildings and build new ones to house the new force.
As the head of the Project Anvil project put it: “This is one of the few projects I’ve been involved with where we have actually demolished buildings, cleared the site, and built new buildings rather than simply refurbishing old ones.”
The team implementing Project Anvil as it is called underscored that the schedule is demanding to get it done in time the arrival of the jets and the standup of the squadron. The focus of the effort currently is on what is called the FOA, namely, Freedom of Action enablers for the squadron – the runway, the maintenance and finishing center, the Integrated Training Center and the National Operating Center.
And the second phase of Project Anvil can only start after the Tornados leave Marham and preparations for the second squadron can put in place.
The team has worked hard to ensure that the capability can be delivered on time.
One example was working with the planning authorities in the region for the upgrades of the power grid necessary to support the F-35s. By providing information on very timely basis, the planning authorities were obtained and the project kept on schedule.
And all of this is being generated in a time of profound political change within NATO and in terms of the threats being faced by NATO. Clearly, an effective standup of capabilities at Marham and their integration into a broader defense effort is crucial for the defense of the United Kingdom and for its core NATO allies.
Captain Nick Walker provided a good overview on the challenges and the opportunities inherent in setting up a new joint base at Marham with the coming of the Queen Elizabeth class carriers.
“I think there is fantastic opportunity with the restructuring of MARHAM to create a truly world-class F35 facility. The investment in the infrastructure, particularly the National Operating Centre and maintenance facilities, will place MARHAM right at the fore of F35 operations and make it the hub in Northern Europe. Only Italy, with its Final Assembly and Check Out (FACO) facility at Cameri will come close to what MARHAM can offer.”
Computer Generated Image of the outside of one of the facilities which is being built at RAF Marham, Norfolk, as part of a programme of works to prepare the station for the arrival of the F-35 Lightning II fleet in 2018.
“And the fact that we are building it from new rather than modifying existing buildings really does present great opportunities to make the structure both future proof but more importantly design it from the outset to support multi-national F35 operations.”
“On the carrier angle, we have a similar opportunity. The UK is buying F35Bs, which are designed to operate from ships as well as land bases. The UK has determined to regenerate a carrier strike capability at the core of its power projection capabilities, and therefore we have purposely opted for an embarkable F35 variant.
“The carrier was then designed specifically to support F35B operations – the ‘aviation flow’ around the aviation, Carrier Strike Group and Intelligence planning and maintenance spaces has been very carefully thought through to ensure the best possible service and most efficient flow for the embarked squadrons.”
“Given that the design is now fixed and the nature of carrier construction means there is little scope for future alteration, we should take the opportunity to design the infrastructure at RAF MARHAM to emulate as far as possible the embarked flow and processes.”
“The F35B squadrons will spend a good proportion of their time embarked, and making the transition from ashore to afloat as seamless as possible just makes sense. The ‘shock’ of embarking is therefore reduced, processes are familiar rather than alien and the whole experience of taking squadrons to sea will be more efficient, safer and easier to manage.”
“It helps to make flying to and from the carrier as natural as flying at the Main Operating Base – the embarked elements become second nature because the ashore processes resemble them as closely as possible.”
“I accept that you cannot replicate a carrier at a land base, but given the MARHAM infrastructure is being designed from new, it makes perfect sense to build in as much commonality as you can.”
Computer Generated Image of the Maintenance and Finish Facility which is being built at RAF Marham, Norfolk, as part of a programme of works to prepare the station for the arrival of the F-35 Lightning II fleet in 2018.
“A good example is the process of storing, collecting and returning the pilots’ helmets. This is done at a particular point in the pre-flight flow on-board, so it makes sense to have it at the same point in the flow ashore – the process is therefore the same both embarked and ashore.”
“The Lightning Force has looked at the helmet process on-board and will incorporate a similar process at MARHAM. Small things, but they do make a difference and keep the F35B Force aware of, and familiar with, their embarked processes as far as possible while ashore – it makes the return to sea smoother, familiar and safer.”
In short, the rebuild at Marham is at the heart of the modernization or indeed transformation of UK forces and a significant impact as well on allied thinking, including the United States.
Although the U.S. announced late in 2017 that it would transfer Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine; nobody should think that this transaction suffices or will terminate USA defense ties to Ukraine.
Quite the opposite, in fact, is true.
This relationship is only beginning and in the interests of both parties needs to go further.
There has been no progress on the political negotiations between Ambassador Kurt Volker and Vladimir Surkov of Russia.
Indeed, Volker publicly decried the lack of political will in Moscow to implement the Minsk accords of 2015 and remove its own forces and proxies from Ukraine.[ref]“U.S. Envoy: Lack Of Political Will In Moscow Thwarting Ukraine Peace,” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, January 24, 2018[/ref]
Meanwhile by all accounts Russia continues to rebuild military infrastructure and capability in and around Ukraine.
The I Tank Army and the VIII and XX Armies are particularly striking examples of this preparation for an old-fashioned conventional war.
Indeed, according to Ukrainian sources the two corps in the Donbass, (Donets and Luhansk Provinces) are now fully integrated into the VII Army along with local terrorist groups operating under Russian authority and possess 750 Main Battle Tanks (MBT).
Russia has also steadily reinforced its forces, land, air, and sea in Crimea.
And at least some analysts are warning of further large-scale Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, especially after Putin wins re-election in March 18.[ref]Glen Grant, “How Ukraine Can Build An Army To Beat Putin,” Kyiv Post, January 31, 2018[/ref]
U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis shakes hands with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko during a meeting at the Pentagon in Washington. Credit: Reuters
Therefore there are no grounds for believing that merely sending Javelin missiles (which, in any case have yet to arrive) suffices to show resolve and convince Putin to withdraw.
Ukraine still has great need of radio-electronic and ISR capabilities to counter Russian UAVs, fire-control capabilities, and Russian ISR.
Besides these capabilities for land and potentially aerial warfare we must also pay heed to Ukraine’s naval needs.
It needs to rebuild its fleet virtually from scratch and remains vulnerable to naval operations launched by Russia.
According to Ukrainian officials a regular NATO presence in the Black Sea would also represent a visible symbol of the West’s determination to contest Russian efforts against Ukraine and to monopolize if not close the Black Sea to the rest of Europe.
Undoubtedly that presence would go far to neutralize Russian advantages over Ukraine and compel Moscow to rethink its course.
Thus it is clear that Javelins alone will not suffice to bring about the political process, let alone political resolution, that we. Europe, and Ukraine are seeking.
Indeed, Putin may well be trapped by his own advance into the Donbass. Given the continuing loud cries that “Krym Nash” Crimea Is Ours” that pervade the Russian political landscape, Putin, like Macbeth, is “so steeped in blood that to go o’er would be as tiresome as to back.”
He cannot retreat without putting his whole regime at risk.
So therefore he is still looking either to force or swindle a victory out of the West and Ukraine.
Only when he is convinced beyond any shadow of a doubt that no military victory or political outcome based on his superior ability to use force is possible can we realistically expect a political process that has a chance of succeeding in resolving the crisis.
Therefore it will be necessary not only to sustain the reforms needed in Ukrainian defense and defense industrial structures as well as across the economy and government.
It is also equally necessary to give Ukraine the tools that it cannot produce on its own to counter the Russian threat and allow free people to defend themselves against aggression.
By all accounts Ukraine’s defense industry is quite capable and making considerable strides since 2014.
But it is hardly able to match the technological level of Russia’s EW and ISR capabilities for fire control.
To the degree that we and our allies help foster these reforms and the transfer of such capabilities to Kyiv we will more closely approach that point where Putin will have no choice but to realize that he has lost the struggle for Ukraine and draw the appropriate conclusions.
This logic therefore necessarily means an expansion of the already flourishing US-Ukraine defense relationship.
Ukraine can also contribute, e.g. NATO can use Kyiv’s fleet of transports to bring forces rapidly from Western and Central Europe to Poland, the Baltic States, or the Balkans against Russian threats.
Russian tanks and soldiers storm a Ukrainian air force base in Belbek near the Crimean city of Sevastopol on March 22, 2014. (Viktor Drachev / AFP/Getty Images).
This move would benefit both NTO and its members as well as Kyiv and represent a very visible political sign to Moscow.
And undoubtedly, to the degree that Ukraine’s defense industry continues to recover more such opportunities for mutual benefit will present themselves.
Therefore it is in Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv’s collective interest that more military assistance go to Ukraine now.
The 10,000 fatalities that are the result of Moscow’s aggression in this war are sacrifices on behalf of NATO and NATO as well as Washington need to understand that further sacrifices will occur unless we can truly deter Moscow from further aggression in Europe.
Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. He is the author of numerous foreign policy-related articles, white papers and monographs, specifically focused on the geopolitics and geostrategy of the former Soviet Union, Russia and Eurasia. He is a former MacArthur Fellow at the U.S. Army War College.
Russia Continues to View India as a Privileged Strategic Partner
On the occasion of its 10th Anniversary Sergey Viktorovich Chemezov CEO of Rostec Corporation interacts with India Strategic in an exclusive interview from Moscow
India Strategic: Rostec recently celebrated the 10th anniversary. What do you consider the main achievements of the company and what direction of development is indicated for the next 10 years?
Sergey Viktorovich Chemezov CEO of Rostec Corporation. Credit: India Strategic
Chemezov: The most important event was the very creation of Rostec 10 years ago. If this decision was not made, it is difficult to imagine in what position we would now find ourselves. Ten years ago we received hundreds of scattered defence assets. A third of enterprises were in a pre-crisis and crisis stage, 28 in the stage of bankruptcy. On the basis of these enterprises, we created a number of holding companies separating them in terms of various industries. For ten years we have carried out a wide reorganisation, eliminated corruption, developed and implemented a single very demanding strategy, introduced new production sites.
One of the achievements in recent years has been the success of Rosoboronexport in foreign arms markets. Today, Rosoboronexport’s portfolio of orders exceeds $40 billion.
By 2025 Rostec plans to achieve parity by revenue of military and civil products of 50/50 (currently it is about 70/30).In the new 2025 Development Strategy, we set a target for revenues at an average annual growth rate of at least 17 per cent and we are working hard to implement it. According to our forecasts, its growth in 2017 will be about 22 per cent.
India Strategic: How do you see the role of India in the development strategy of Rostec State Corporation?
Chemezov:I would like to emphasise that India is Russia’s privileged strategic partner. In a tough international competition environment, by practice we prove that Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation is not only steadily developing, but also deepening. Our strategy is to further expand cooperation with Indian producers in accordance with the policy of “Make in India”, proclaimed by the Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Only Russia transfers 100 per cent of technologies to India, which allows Indian defenсe companies to develop their own military production in full. For example, in India, through Russian licenses, production of Su-30MKI aircraft is underway, as also major overhaul of RD-33 aircraft engines. A striking example of Russian-Indian cooperation is the creation of a unique supersonic cruise missile BrahMos. Similar Russian technologies have not been transferred to any other country.
Today, Rosoboronexport’s portfolio of orders in India exceeds $4 billion and the current planning of the Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation is carried out on a long-term basis.
India Strategic: What is the status of the Indo-Russian FGFA programme? There were reports that the program was stuck in connection with costing issues.
Chemezov:As for the project of joint development of a fifth-generation fighter (FGFA), work is underway. The first stage of the project is completed, now the second stage is under discussion. I think that the contract documents in the very near future will be signed. The project is very complex, but the work continues, although not so quickly.
India Strategic: What is the contract stage for the delivery of S-400 Triumf systems in India? When will the delivery begin? Apart from the missile system, what are the other features of the deal, and is there any particular reason for the delay?
Chemezov:The intergovernmental agreement on this project was signed in Goa just one year ago. This agreement is on the supply of the most modern equipment for strategic purposes. Now it is important not to rush things and give both parties time for contract negotiations.
Discussion of this contract is at a profoundly advanced stage. Currently, the technical details of the contract are being discussed. This is a very complex contract with many technical specifications and variables, as well as pricing conditions, production and delivery schedules; everything must be carefully coordinated. I am confident that as soon as the negotiations are completed, the contract will be signed. The work is proceeding according to plan and this pace fully meets our expectations.
India Strategic: What is the status of the supply of additional 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters to India? When do you expect the signing of the contract?
Chemezov:Negotiations with the Indian side on the delivery of 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters have been completed; we expect to sign the corresponding contract in the first quarter of 2018.
India is the largest foreign operator of Mi-8/17 helicopters, and they have proven themselves through decades of use. One of its most competitive advantages is the cost of an hour of flight, which is unmatched by any of the competitors. The increase in the fleet of these helicopters is a very logical step.
In addition, the serious modernisation potential of the Mi-8/17 is confirmed by the development of the Mi-171A2 model, which includes more than 80 changes and improvements to the platform. The very first contract to export a Mi-171A2 was signed with an Indian company during the Dubai Airshow recently.
India Strategic: India is interested in creating a single-engine fighter inside the country in the framework of a new model of strategic partnership. Is Rostec interested in taking part in this?
Chemezov: Russia is very strong in the production of various types of twin-engine aircraft, but at present we do not produce single-engine fighters. And our main twin-engine aircraft, both MiGs and Sukhois, are used by the Indian air force.
But if India wants to develop its own single-engine aircraft, and if India is interested in international cooperation to develop this aircraft, Russia and Rostec will be open to cooperation. Thus, if we are invited to participate in the joint development of a single-engine aircraft, we are ready to do this, as it was done in the past with other Russian-Indian projects. The BrahMos supersonic missile is a good example of such cooperation between the two countries.
India Strategic:Recently, India has opened a tender for over 100 helicopters with naval equipment and naval multipurpose helicopters? Will Rostec participate in it?
Chemezov:Russian Helicopters has already announced its intention to participate in this tender with the Ka-226T model, where they will be represented by Rosoboronexport (both companies are part of Rostec State Corporation).
In the tender for the supply of more than 100 helicopters for the Indian Navy, the conditions for all are the same. Whether the Ka-226T is selected or not, I do not know, but our helicopter meets all the requirements presented in the tender documentation, and its technical characteristics exceeds our competitors. We already have a solution for the naval version of this helicopter with folding blades.
Joint venture Kamov Ka-226T with India is a synergetic project with additional opportunities. I would like to tell our Indian colleagues that if the Ministry of Defence of India selects the Ka-226T, India can save money significantly. Thanks to the project for joint production of helicopters, there are opportunities for joint maintenance, training of pilots and mechanics and other related costs.
It seems to me that this will be a reasonable step for the Indian authorities, because they will support the domestic manufacturer in this way, since it is HAL that has a 51 per cent stake in the Russian-Indian Ka-226T JV.
India Strategic: In what areas of industry can Rostec expect to cooperate with India next year? What promising agreements have been signed recently?
Chemezov:In the near future, we plan to move on from direct supplies to joint research, development and production, and the creation of joint ventures. This cooperation is in the high-tech industry between our countries, which was previously non-existent outside the sphere of military-technical cooperation. Rostec is building up its competencies in the field of microelectronics, optics, IT, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and aerospace technologies in recent years. We are ready to develop these areas together with our Indian partners, both public and private companies.
Large potential of cooperation with India exists for our subsidiary company Natsimbio. As you know, India has made great strides in pharmacology and is one of the world’s recognised leaders in the manufacture of medicines. We are ready for cooperation; in particular, in the direction of organising production of a number of Indian medicines in Russia.
The Indian company Ishvan Pharmaceutical is an investor in projects on the transfer of vaccines. Together with them, Natsimbio created the company Pharm Aid Ltd, which deals with the projects related to transfer of technology and production localisation.
In October 2017, an integrator of Russian IT solutions in the international market, RITE (part of Rostec State Corporation) and Aark Infosoft Pvt Ltd. (India) signed a memorandum on cooperation in the development of complex IT projects in India. The companies agreed on cooperation on Smart City projects in three cities of India, the development of cyber security and electronic elections in the region.
Republished with the permission of our partner India Strategic.
Air Vice-Marshal John Blackburn AO (Retd.) is a leading Australian strategist.
He has most recently been Deputy Chairman of both the Kokoda Foundation and the Williams Foundations where he has led key efforts to reshape Australian and allied thinking about defense transformation appropriate to the evolving strategic environment.
John Blackburn joined the Air Force in 1975.
The Blackburn-Berke-Godfrey panel addressing airpower transformation at the Copenhagen Airpower Symposium, April 17, 2015. Credit: SLD
As a fighter pilot he flew the Mirage III aircraft.
In 1980 he graduated from the Empire Test Pilots School at RAF Boscombe Down in the UK and then served as a test pilot with Aircraft Research and Development Unit at Edinburgh, South Australia.
In 1983 he was assigned to the fighter project team in the USA managing the introduction of the F/A-18 Hornet fighter aircraft into RAAF service.
On return to Australia in 1987 he spent several years flying F/A-18s operationally with No. 77 Squadron, as Flight Commander, Executive Officer, and returning later as the Commanding Officer.
In 1996 he was promoted and appointed to command No. 41 Wing, in charge of all military air defence radar / C2 and surveillance units and all Military ATC.
His later appointments included the Director General Policy and Plans in Air Force Headquarters, the Director General of Military Strategy in Defence Headquarters.
On promotion to Air Vice-Marshal in 2002, he became Head of Strategic Policy for Defence.
In this latter position he was responsible for the development of ADF strategic policy and led the development of the Defence Joint Vision, the Future War Fighting Concept and the Network-Centric Warfare Concept and Roadmap for the ADF.
In 2004 John was appointed the Commander of the Integrated Area Defence System located in Malaysia, commanding a multi-national headquarters established to effect the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). Under these arrangements, he oversaw bi-annual military exercises over Peninsula Malaysia, Singapore and the South China Sea.
John returned to Canberra in 2005, to the position of Deputy Chief of Air Force.
In this role he was responsible for Air Force’s strategic plans and policy, capability plans, financial resources, personnel policy and career management.
He also served as the Airworthiness regulator for all Defence Force Aviation and as a Board chairman for Australian Defence Airworthiness Boards.
He was appointed an Officer of the Order of Australia in 2008.
He retired from full time service in the RAAF in September 2008 with 3000 hours experience as a test pilot and fighter pilot in over 20 aircraft types.
He is now a consultant in the fields of Defence and National Security and remains on the RAAF Reserve.
How do you see the way ahead?
Captain Nick Walker, Royal Navy, presenting at the Williams Foundation Seminar on Air Sea Integration, Canberra, August 10, 2016
Credit: Aircraft Carrier Alliance – Queen Elizabeth Class at sea (CGI)
From Presentation by Captain Walker, Royal Navy, at the Williams Foundation seminar on Air-Sea Integration, August 2016
Computer Generated Image of the outside of one of the facilities which is being built at RAF Marham, Norfolk, as part of a programme of works to prepare the station for the arrival of the F-35 Lightning II fleet in 2018.
Computer Generated Image of the Maintenance and Finish Facility which is being built at RAF Marham, Norfolk, as part of a programme of works to prepare the station for the arrival of the F-35 Lightning II fleet in 2018.
Russian tanks and soldiers storm a Ukrainian air force base in Belbek near the Crimean city of Sevastopol on March 22, 2014. (Viktor Drachev / AFP/Getty Images).
Sergey Viktorovich Chemezov CEO of Rostec Corporation. Credit: India Strategic
The Blackburn-Berke-Godfrey panel addressing airpower transformation at the Copenhagen Airpower Symposium, April 17, 2015. Credit: SLD